Evidence from population mixing in British New Towns 1946-85 of an infective basis for childhood leukaemia

Towards prevention of childhood ALL by early-life immune training

B-cell precursor acute lymphoblastic leukemia (BCP-ALL) is the most common form of childhood cancer. Chemotherapy is associated with life-long health sequelae and fails in ∼20% of cases. Thus, prevention of leukemia would be preferable to treatment. Childhood leukemia frequently starts before birth, during fetal hematopoiesis. A first genetic hit (eg, the ETV6-RUNX1 gene fusion) leads to the expansion of preleukemic B-cell clones, which are detectable in healthy newborn cord blood (up to 5%). These preleukemic clones give rise to clinically overt leukemia in only ∼0.2% of carriers. Experimental evidence suggests that a major driver of conversion from the preleukemic to the leukemic state is exposure to immune challenges. Novel insights have shed light on immune host responses and how they shape the complex interplay between (1) inherited or acquired genetic predispositions, (2) exposure to infection, and (3) abnormal cytokine release from immunologically untrained cells. Here, we integrate the recently emerging concept of “trained immunity” into existing models of childhood BCP-ALL and suggest future avenues toward leukemia prevention.

Statistical methods for spatial cluster detection in childhood cancer incidence: A simulation study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

The potential existence of spatial clusters in childhood cancer incidence is a debated topic. Identification of such clusters may help to better understand etiology and develop preventive strategies. We evaluated widely used statistical approaches to cluster detection in this context.

METHODS

Incidence of newly diagnosed childhood cancer (140/1,000,000 children under 15 years) and nephroblastoma (7/1,000,000) was simulated. Clusters of defined size (1-50) were randomly assembled on the district level in Germany. Each cluster was simulated with different relative risk levels (1-100). For each combination 2000 iterations were done. Simulated data was then analyzed by three local clustering tests: Besag-Newell method, spatial scan statistic and Bayesian Besag-York-Mollié with Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation approach. The operating characteristics (sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, power and correct classification) of all three methods were systematically described.

RESULTS

Performance varied considerably within and between methods, depending on the simulated setting. Sensitivity of all methods was positively associated with increasing size, incidence and RR of the high-risk area. Besag-York-Mollié showed highest specificity for minimally increased RR in most scenarios. The performance of all methods was lower in the nephroblastoma scenario compared with the scenario including all cancer cases.

CONCLUSION

This study illustrates the challenge to make reliable inferences on the existence of spatial clusters based on single statistical approaches in childhood cancer. Application of multiple methods, ideally with known operating characteristics, and a critical discussion of the joint evidence seems recommendable when aiming to identify high-risk clusters.

Insights into the prenatal origin of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia

Pediatric acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) is defined by recurrent chromosomal aberrations including hyperdiploidy and chromosomal translocations. Many of these aberrations originate in utero and the cells transform in early childhood through acquired secondary mutations. In this review, we will discuss the most common prenatal lesions that can lead to childhood ALL, with a special emphasis on the most common translocation in childhood ALL, t(12;21), which results in the ETV6-RUNX1 gene fusion. The ETV6-RUNX1 fusion arises prenatally and at a 500-fold higher frequency than the corresponding ALL. Even though the findings regarding the frequency of ETV6-RUNX1 were originally challenged, newer studies have confirmed the higher frequency. The prenatal origin has also been proven for other gene fusions, including KMT2A, the translocations t(1;19) and t(9;22) leading to TCF3-PBX1 and BCR-ABL1, respectively, as well as high hyperdiploidy. For most of these aberrations, there is evidence for more frequent occurrence than the corresponding leukemia incidences. We will briefly discuss what is known about the cells of origin, the mechanisms of leukemic transformation through lack of immunosurveillance, and why only a part of the carriers develops ALL.

Plasma of Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia Patients React to the Culture of a Mycovirus Containing Aspergillus flavus

Acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) is the most common cancer in children and is also seen in adults. Currently, no plasma-based test for the detection of ALL is available. We have cultured the home of a patient with ALL and isolated a mycovirus containing Aspergillus flavus. This culture was subjected to electron microscopy, purification, and mass spectrometry. Using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay technique, plasma of patients with ALL and long-term survivors of this disease were tested for antibodies, utilizing supernatant of the culture of this organism. The results were compared with 3 groups of controls, including healthy individuals, patients with sickle cell disease, and solid tumors. Using electron microscopy, the isolated A. flavus contained mycovirus particles. In chemical analysis, this organism did not produce any aflatoxin. Using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay technique, the supernatant of the culture of the mycovirus containing A. flavus could differentiate ALL patients from each group of controls (P<0.001). These studies provide a new technique for the detection of ALL and may add information for future research regarding leukemogenesis.

Association of population mixing and acute lymphocytic leukemia in children and young adults

BACKGROUND

The association of population mixing (PM¹) with childhood acute lymphocytic leukemia (ALL²) has been reproduced in multiple studies. However, the mechanism underlying this association is unknown.

METHODS

Ecological study of incidence of pediatric ALL among 253 counties in the State of Texas (USA) using surrogates of genetic and environmental PM. ALL incidence data were obtained from Texas Cancer Registry and county population statistics from the US Census Bureau. Poisson regression was used to compare ALL incidence and PM.

RESULTS

There is substantial and variable genetic and environmental PM among counties in Texas. Indicators of genetic PM including proportion of multiracial households, ratio of Hispanics to non-Hispanics, and ratio of foreign to native-born residents were all significantly associated with a higher incidence of ALL (IRR³ 1.81 (95CI 1.05-3.13), 1.67 (95CI 1.16-2.37), and 1.59 (95CI 1.03-2.48), respectively). Surrogates of environmental PM namely population density and persons per household were not associated with incidence of ALL; IRRs 1.29 (95CI 0.4-4.15) and 1.47 (95CI 0.89-2.43).

CONCLUSIONS

These findings are consistent with prior patterns and magnitudes of PM association with ALL. Our findings suggest that the implicated mechanism of leukemogenesis in PM may be genetically transmitted rather than environmental.

High parental occupational social contact and risk of childhood hematopoietic, brain and bone cancers

BACKGROUND

The etiology of childhood cancer is largely unknown, though some research suggests an infectious origin of hematopoietic, central nervous system (CNS) and bone cancers.

METHODS

We examined parental occupational social contact as a proxy for exposure to infectious agents and risk of childhood cancer. This population-based case-control study utilized a linkage of four Danish data-registries, and included 3581 cases (<17 years, diagnosed 1973-2012) and 358,100 age-matched controls. We examined the risks of leukemia, lymphoma, CNS and bone cancer related to high occupational social contact from (1) conception to birth and (2) birth to diagnosis.

RESULTS

Acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) and bone cancer were inversely associated with high maternal social contact from conception to birth (OR: 0.86, 95% CI: 0.67-1.10) and birth to diagnosis (OR: 0.54, 95% CI: 0.34-0.86). Children of fathers with high social contact from birth to diagnosis had an increased risk of bone cancers, particularly in rural areas (OR: 1.65, 95% CI: 1.03-2.63). Parental social contact was associated with increased risk of astrocytoma, with strongest associations found in first-born children (maternal: OR: 1.54, 95% CI: 1.02-2.32; paternal: OR: 1.82, 95% CI: 1.05-3.17).

CONCLUSION

Our results support the notion of a role of infections for some cancer types.

The Association Between Childhood Leukemia and Population Mixing: An Artifact of Focusing on Clusters?

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text.

Background:

Studies investigating the population-mixing hypothesis in childhood leukemia principally use two analytical approaches: (1) nonrandom selection of areas according to specific characteristics, followed by comparisons of their incidence of childhood leukemia with that expected based on the national average; and (2) regression analyses of region-wide data to identify characteristics associated with the incidence of childhood leukemia. These approaches have generated contradictory results. We compare these approaches using observed and simulated data.

Methods:

We generated 10,000 simulated regions using the correlation structure and distributions from a United Kingdom dataset. We simulated cases using a Poisson distribution with the incidence rate set to the national average assuming the null hypothesis that only population size drives the number of cases. Selection of areas within each simulated region was based on characteristics considered responsible for elevated infection rates (population density and inward migration) and/or elevated leukemia rates. We calculated effect estimates for 10,000 simulations and compared results to corresponding observed data analyses.

Results:

When the selection of areas for analysis is based on apparent clusters of childhood leukemia, biased assessments occur; the estimated 5-year incidence of childhood leukemia ranged between zero and eight per 10,000 children in contrast to the simulated two cases per 10,000 children, similar to the observed data. Performing analyses on region-wide data avoids these biases.

Conclusions:

Studies using nonrandom selection to investigate the association between childhood leukemia and population mixing are likely to have generated biased findings. Future studies can avoid such bias using a region-wide analytical strategy. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B431.

Pediatric precursor B acute lymphoblastic leukemia: are T helper cells the missing link in the infectious etiology theory?

Precursor B acute lymphoblastic leukemia (BCP-ALL), the most common childhood malignancy, arises from an expansion of malignant B cell precursors in the bone marrow. Epidemiological studies suggest that infections or immune responses to infections may promote such an expansion and thus BCP-ALL development. Nevertheless, a specific pathogen responsible for this process has not been identified. BCP-ALL cells critically depend on interactions with the bone marrow microenvironment. The bone marrow is also home to memory T helper (Th) cells that have previously expanded during an immune response in the periphery. In secondary lymphoid organs, Th cells can interact with malignant cells of mature B cell origin, while such interactions between Th cells and malignant immature B cell in the bone marrow have not been described yet. Nevertheless, literature supports a model where Th cells—expanded during an infection in early childhood—migrate to the bone marrow and support BCP-ALL cells as they support normal B cells. Further research is required to mechanistically confirm this model and to elucidate the interaction pathways between leukemia cells and cells of the tumor microenvironment. As benefit, targeting these interactions could be included in current treatment regimens to increase therapeutic efficiency and to reduce relapses.

Epidemiological evidence for an infective basis in childhood leukaemia

An infective basis for childhood leukaemia is not a new suspicion (Kellett, 1937). The failure of microbiologists to identify any specific agent and of epidemiologists to demonstrate marked space-time clustering of the disease (Smith, 1982) have been discouraging, but neither is incompatible with an infectious origin. In several vertebrate species, the specific agents responsible for leukaemia belong to a class that is notoriously difficult to isolate. Also, many infectious illnesses do not cluster because they are uncommon responses to the relevant infection. Thus, the agent responsible for infectious mononucleosis is mainly spread not by those with the illness but by that very much larger number of infected individuals who are clinically unaffected (or only trivially so). Such infections can be considered as 'mainly immunising': they can be seen as representing the most probable broad category to which the infection underlying childhood leukaemia belongs.

A case-control study of occupational contact levels in the childhood leukaemia cluster at Seascale, Cumbria, UK

OBJECTIVES

To investigate adult occupational contact levels and risk of childhood leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (LNHL) in Seascale, an association found in other situations of rural population mixing (PM).

DESIGN

Matched case-control study.

SETTING

Seascale, Cumbria, UK.

PARTICIPANTS

For each case of LNHL recorded in patients under age 25 years during 1950-2006, up to 20 matched controls were chosen and parental occupational details obtained; an exception was a single working young adult, whose own occupation (and that of controls) was used.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Contact levels of occupations were categorised as: low/medium (reference group), high or very high contact levels, as in previous studies, with provision for certain unusual occupations. In particular, specialist policemen responsible for security and access at the nearby Sellafield nuclear complex were allocated to the highest contact category, and those Sellafield employees who worked in controlled areas to the middle (high) category. Since of possible bias, unusual contact aspects noted in the main research and development (R&D) building were reserved for a supplementary analysis. ORs were calculated for the occupational contact levels.

RESULTS

Compared to the reference group, the social class adjusted ORs for the high and very high contact categories were 8.18 (95% CI 0.95 to 70.33) and 14.90 (1.20 to 184.90), respectively, with a significant trend across the categories (p value=0.024). In the supplementary analysis with R&D workers moved to the very high contact category, the OR for the latter became 29.68 (2.12 to 415.79), and the p value for trend, 0.011.

CONCLUSIONS

The Seascale LNHL excess was most marked among those young people linked with high occupational contact levels; it is therefore not an exception to the pattern of family infection shown by other PM-related excesses. The findings have implications for the choice of controls in certain types of virus study.

Geographic Variation in Cancer Incidence among Children and Adolescents in Taiwan (1995-2009)

BACKGROUND

Evidence from our recent study suggested that the overall trend for cancer incidence in children and adolescents has been increasing in Taiwan.

METHODS

To analyze geographic variations in this trend, cancer frequencies and incidence rates of disease groups were quantified according to geographic areas among 12,633 patients aged <20 years during 1995-2009 by using the population-based Taiwan Cancer Registry. Three geographic levels were defined, namely county or city, region (Northern, Central, Southern, and Eastern Taiwan), and local administrative area (special municipality, provincial city, county-administered city, township, and aboriginal area).

RESULTS

Of the regions, Northern Taiwan had the highest incidence rate at 139.6 per million person-years, followed by Central (132.8), Southern (131.8), and Eastern (128.4) Taiwan. Significantly higher standardized rate ratios (SRRs) were observed in Northern Taiwan (SRR = 1.06, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.02-1.10) and at the township level (SRR = 1.07, 95% CI = 1.03-1.11). Of the cities or counties, New Taipei City yielded the highest SRR (1.08), followed by Taipei City (SRR = 1.07). A comparison of the rates in the four regions and the remainder of Taiwan according to cancer type revealed that only the rate of neuroblastomas in Eastern Taiwan was significantly low. Trend analysis showed that the most significant increase in incidence rate was observed at the township level, with an annual percent change of 1.8% during the 15-year study period.

CONCLUSIONS

The high rate of childhood cancer in Northern Taiwan and at the township level deserves further attention. The potential impacts of environmental factors on the upward trend of childhood cancer incidence rate in townships warrant further investigation.

An examination, with a meta-analysis, of studies of childhood leukaemia in relation to population mixing

Background:

Marked influxes of people into rural areas, termed rural population mixing (PM), have been associated with excesses of childhood leukaemia (CL), consistent with mini-epidemics of a mainly immunising, subclinical infection to which CL is a rare response. For such situations of rural PM would promote contacts between infected and susceptible individuals, the latter tending to have a higher than average prevalence in rural or isolated areas. Confusion has arisen from some workers applying the term PM to non-rural situations lacking known recent change.

Methods:

Available PM studies using the original definition of influxes were examined, a meta-analysis carried out of studies of CL in relation to exposure to high levels of rural PM, and also a detailed analysis by age group.

Results:

The meta-analysis of 17 studies shows a significant CL excess in association with rural PM: overall relative risk (RR) at ages 0–14: 1.57; 95% confidence interval 1.44–1.72; at 0–4 years 1.72 (1.54–1.91). This contrasts with the absence of an excess of CL in similarly exposed urban areas (RR 1.00; 0.93–1.07), pointing to a high level of immunity there. The mixed results of studies using other definitions of PM were summarised. The excess associated with rural PM below age 2 years (RR 1.51; 1.17, 1.92) was not appreciably different from that at later childhood ages.

Conclusion:

Much of the inconsistency among studies ostensibly about CL and PM reflects the use of definitions other than that originally proposed. The broad similarity of the CL excess below age 2 with that at older childhood ages is inconsistent with the Greaves’ delayed infection hypothesis, since any infection underlying the former is difficult to consider as delayed.

Childhood leukaemia, nuclear sites, and population mixing

The excess of childhood leukaemia (CL) in Seascale, near the Sellafield nuclear reprocessing site in rural NW England, suggested that an epidemic of an underlying infection, to which CL is a rare response, is promoted by marked population mixing (PM) in rural areas, in which the prevalence of susceptibles is higher than average. This hypothesis has been confirmed by 12 studies in non-radiation situations. Of the five established CL excesses near nuclear sites, four are associated with significant PM; in the fifth, the Krummel power station in Germany, the subject has not been thoroughly investigated.

Aetiology of childhood leukaemia

The acute leukaemias account for about 30% of all malignancy seen in childhood across the Western world. A peak incidence of precursor B cell ALL has emerged as socio-economic conditions have improved in countries worldwide. From twin studies and the use of neonatal blood spots it has been possible to back track the first initiating genetic events within critical haemopoietic cells to foetal development in utero for most precursor B cell ALL and some cases of AML. These events may occur as part of normal foetal development. Whether other factors (environmental or constitutional) are involved to increase the chance of these first genetic changes happening is unclear. For some leukaemias (e.g. infant MLL positive ALL) the first event appears adequate to create a malignant clone but for the majority of ALL and AML further 'genetic' changes are required, probably postnatal. Many environmental factors have been proposed as causative for leukaemia but only ionising irradiation and certain chemicals, e.g. benzene and cytotoxics (alkylators and topoisomerase II inhibitors) have been confirmed and then principally for acute myeloid leukaemia. It appears increasingly likely that delayed, dysregulated responses to 'common' infectious agents play a major part in the conversion of pre-leukaemic clones into overt precursor B cell ALL, the most common form of childhood leukaemia. Constitutional polymorphic alleleic variants in immune response genes (especially the HLA Class II proteins) and cytokines may play a role in determining the type of immune response. High penetrance germ-line mutations are involved in only about 5% of childhood leukaemias (more in AML than ALL). There is little evidence to support any role of viral transformation in causation, unlike in animals. Other environmental factors for which some evidence exists include non-ionising electromagnetic radiation and electric fields, although their mode of action in leukaemogenesis remains unclear. There is no single cause for childhood leukaemia and for most individuals a combination of factors appears to be necessary; all involving gene-environment interactions. To date few clear preventative measures have emerged, except the complete avoidance of first trimester X-rays in pregnancy; a healthy diet with adequate oral folic acid intake both preconception and early in pregnancy; and the early exposure of children to other children outside the home to facilitate stimulation and maturation of the natural immune system. Here then are clear echoes of the "hygiene hypothesis" regarding the initiation of allergies, autoimmune disease and type I diabetes mellitus in children and young people.

Cancer incidence in the vicinity of Finnish nuclear power plants: an emphasis on childhood leukemia

The objective of this paper was to study cancer incidence, especially leukemia in children (<15 years), in the vicinity of Finnish nuclear power plants (NPPs). We used three different approaches: ecological analysis at municipality level, residential cohorts defined from census data, and case–control analysis with individual residential histories. The standardized incidence ratio of childhood leukemia for the seven municipalities in the vicinity of NPPs was 1.0 (95% CI 0.6, 1.6) compared to the rest of Finland. The two cohorts defined by censuses of 1980 and 1990 gave rate ratios of 1.0 (95% CI 0.3, 2.6) and 0.9 (95% CI 0.2, 2.7), respectively, for childhood leukemia in the population residing within 15 km from the NPPs compared to the 15–50 km zone. The case–control analysis with 16 cases of childhood leukemia and 64 matched population-based controls gave an odds ratio for average distance between residence and NPP in the closest 5–9.9 km zone of 0.7 (95% CI 0.1, 10.4) compared to ≥30 km zone. Our results do not indicate an increase in childhood leukemia and other cancers in the vicinity of Finnish NPPs though the small sample size limits the strength of conclusions. The conclusion was the same for adults.

Host, family and community proxies for infections potentially associated with leukaemia

Three hypotheses have proposed the involvement of infections in the aetiology of childhood leukaemia, suggesting either a specific leukaemogenic infection or a series of common infections that lead to a dysregulation of the immune system. Much of the evidence for the link with infections has been based on epidemiological observations, often using proxy measures of infection. Proxy measures include population mixing, parental occupation, age distribution of incidence, spatial and space-time clustering of cases, birth order and day care during infancy. This paper discusses the proxies used and examines to what extent a commonly used proxy measure, birth order, is a fair representation of either specific infections or general infectious load. It is clear that although leukaemia, and other diseases, may be linked with infections, one needs to (1) measure specific and general infections with more accuracy and (2) understand how proxy measures relate to real infections in the population.

Does population mixing measure infectious exposure in children at the community level?

Epidemiological studies focusing on the etiology of childhood chronic diseases have used population mixing as a proxy for the level of infection circulating in a community. We compared different measures of population mixing (based on residential migration and commuting) and other demographic variables, derived from the United Kingdom Census, with hospital inpatient data on infections from two Government Office Regions in England (Eastern and the West Midlands) to inform the development of an infectious disease proxy for future epidemiological studies. The association between rates of infection and the population mixing measures was assessed, using incidence rate ratios across census areas, from negative binomial regression. Commuting distance demonstrated the most consistent association with admissions for infections across the two regions; areas with a higher median distance travelled by commuters leaving the area having a lower rate of hospital admissions for infections. Deprived areas and densely populated areas had a raised rate of admissions for infections. Assuming hospital admissions are a reliable indicator of common infection rates, the results from this study suggest that commuting distance is a consistent measure of population mixing in relation to infectious disease and deprivation and population density are reliable demographic proxies for infectious exposure. Areas that exhibit high levels of population mixing do not necessarily possess raised rates of hospital admissions for infectious disease.

What do epidemiologists mean by 'population mixing'?

There is growing evidence that some chronic diseases are caused, or promoted, by infectious disease. 'Population mixing' has been used as a proxy for the range and dose of infectious agents circulating in a community. Given the speculation over the role of population mixing in many chronic diseases, we review the various methods used for measuring population mixing, and provide a classification of these. We recommend that authors fulfill two criteria in publications: measures are demonstrably associated with the putative risk factors for which population-mixing is acting as a proxy and fundamental characteristics of the chosen measures are clearly defined.

Potential health effects from non-specific stimulation of the immune function in early age: the example of BCG vaccination

There is increasing, but still inconsistent evidence that vaccinations and childhood infections may play a role in the normal maturation of the immune system, and in the development and balance of immune regulatory pathways, both of which might impact health later in life. This review covers the epidemiological evidence regarding the role of Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination on the following inflammatory or autoimmune diseases: asthma and allergic diseases, Crohn's disease (CD), insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (IDDM), and specific cancers. The literature is more comprehensive for asthma and allergic diseases, with 16 studies reporting the absence of an association while seven rather suggest a protective effect of BCG. We found insufficient evidence on CD to conclude at this point. Overall, the evidence for IDDM based on four studies leans towards no association, although some effects were observed in population subsets. Five epidemiological investigations provide evidence on a possible link with cancer incidence or mortality at various sites, with indications of both increased and decreased risks. Given the potential public health implications, it is imperative to acquire a better understanding of how BCG vaccination could influence the development of such chronic health conditions in the population.

Population mixing, socioeconomic status and incidence of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia in England and Wales: analysis by census ward

In this population-based study of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) diagnosed among children aged under 15 years in England and Wales during 1986-1995, we analysed incidence at census ward level in relation to a range of variables from the 1991 census, which could be relevant to theories of infectious aetiology. 'Population-mixing' measures, used as surrogates for quantity and diversity of infections entering the community, were calculated from census data on the origins and destinations of migrants in the year before the census. Incidence at ages 1-4 years tended independently to be higher in rural wards, to increase with the diversity of origin wards from which in-migrants had moved during the year before the census, and to be lower in the most deprived areas as categorised by the Carstairs index. This last association was much weaker when urban/rural status and in-migrants' diversity were allowed for. There was no evidence of association with population mixing or deprivation for ALL diagnosed at ages 0 or 5-14 years. The apparent specificity to the young childhood age group suggests that these associations are particularly marked for precursor B-cell ALL, with the disease more likely to occur when delayed exposure to infection leads to increased immunological stress, as predicted by Greaves. The association with diversity of incomers, especially in rural areas, is also consistent with the higher incidence of leukaemia predicted by Kinlen, where population mixing results in below average herd immunity to an infectious agent.

Childhood leukaemia and population movements in France, 1990-2003

In a national study, we investigated the incidence of childhood leukaemia (CL) over a 14-year period in France in relation to several measures based on the proportion of individuals who changed address between the last two national censuses. A positive association was found with the proportion of migrants who came from a distant place. The further the migrants came, the higher was the incidence of leukaemia, particularly among children aged 0-4 years in 'isolated' communes at the time of diagnosis (RR=1.4, 95% CI: 1.1,1.8 in the highest category of migration distance). Although the role of the population density was less obvious, a more marked association was found above a certain threshold. No association with the proportion of commuters was observed.

Meta-analysis of standardized incidence and mortality rates of childhood leukaemia in proximity to nuclear facilities

The meta-analysis combined and statistically analysed studies of childhood leukaemia and nuclear facilities. Focus was on studies that calculated standardized rates for individual facilities. Due to variability between study designs, eight separate analyses were performed stratified by age and zone. One hundred and thirty-six sites were used in at least one analysis. Unadjusted, fixed effects and random effects models were used. Meta-rates greater than one were found in all models at all stratification levels often achieving statistical significance. Caution must be used when interpreting these results. The meta-analysis was able to show an increase in childhood leukaemia near nuclear facilities, but does not support a hypothesis to explain the excess. Each type of model utilized has limitations. Fixed effects models give greater weight to larger studies; however, population density may be a risk factor. Random effects models give greater weight to smaller studies that may be more likely to be affected by publication bias. A limitation of the overall study design is that standardized rates must be available for individual sites which led to exclusion of studies that only calculated rates for multiple sites and those that presented other statistical methods. Further, dose-response studies do not support excess rates found near nuclear facilities. However, it cannot be ignored that the majority of studies have found elevated rates, although not usually statistically significant.

Number of siblings and the risk of solid tumours: a nation-wide study

We analysed the effects of number of siblings on the risk of solid tumours using the Swedish Family-Cancer Database, including population-based information on over 11 million individuals and more than 178 000 cancer patients diagnosed between 1958 and 2004. Incidence rate ratios (RRs), estimated by Poisson regression models, were adjusted for age, sex, birth cohort, area of residence and socioeconomic status. Having eight or more siblings vs none increased the risk of stomach cancer (RR=1.83, 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.44–2.34). Anal cancer diagnosed before age 40 showed the strongest association with the total siblings (RR=3.27, 95% CI, 2.04–5.26 for five or more siblings vs none). Endometrial (RR=0.76, 95% CI, 0.70–0.82), testicular (RR=0.71, 95% CI, 0.62–0.82), skin cancer (RR=0.82, 95% CI, 0.69–0.97) and melanoma (RR=0.72, 95% CI, 0.65–0.79) showed strong decreased risks for five or more siblings vs none. Prostate cancer risk for those with five or more older siblings vs none was 1.38 (95% CI, 1.23–1.55). Having five or more younger siblings was most strongly associated with stomach cancer (RR=1.59, 95% CI, 1.29–1.95) and melanoma (RR=0.68, 95% CI, 0.59–0.79). We conclude that sibship characteristics are strong correlates of cancer risk at several sites; plausible interpretations include socioeconomic status.

Investigating childhood leukemia in Churchill County, Nevada

BACKGROUND

Sixteen children diagnosed with acute leukemia between 1997 and 2002 lived in Churchill County, Nevada, at the time of or before their illness. Considering the county population and statewide cancer rate, fewer than two cases would be expected.

OBJECTIVES

In March 2001, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention led federal, state, and local agencies in a cross-sectional, case-comparison study to determine if ongoing environmental exposures posed a health risk to residents and to compare levels of contaminants in environmental and biologic samples collected from participating families.

METHODS

Surveys with more than 500 variables were administered to 205 people in 69 families. Blood, urine, and cheek cell samples were collected and analyzed for 139 chemicals, eight viral markers, and several genetic polymorphisms. Air, water, soil, and dust samples were collected from almost 80 homes to measure more than 200 chemicals.

RESULTS

The scope of this cancer cluster investigation exceeded any previous study of pediatric leukemia. Nonetheless, no exposure consistent with leukemia risk was identified. Overall, tungsten and arsenic levels in urine and water samples were significantly higher than national comparison values; however, levels were similar among case and comparison groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the cases in this cancer cluster may in fact have a common etiology, their small number and the length of time between diagnosis and our exposure assessment lessen the ability to find an association between leukemia and environmental exposures. Given the limitations of individual cancer cluster investigations, it may prove more efficient to pool laboratory and questionnaire data from similar leukemia clusters.

Number of siblings and the risk of lymphoma, leukemia, and myeloma by histopathology

Epidemiologic evidence indicates that several markers of exposure to childhood infections are inversely associated with the risk of childhood leukemia and lymphomas. We used the Swedish Family-Cancer Database to assess the effects of number of siblings on the risk of non-Hodgkin's (n = 7,007) and Hodgkin's lymphomas (n = 3,115), leukemias (n = 7,650), and multiple myeloma (n = 1,492) by histopathology. Poisson regression models included terms for age, sex, family history, period, and socioeconomic index. Having four or more siblings compared with none was associated with an excess risk of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia [ALL; rate ratio (RR), 2.11; P(trend) = 0.001], acute monocytic leukemia (RR, 2.51; P(trend) = 0.002), and multiple myeloma (RR, 1.34; P(trend) = 0.006). Having three or more older siblings compared with none decreased the risk of acute monocytic leukemia (RR, 0.35; P(trend) = 0.001) and childhood ALL (RR, 0.69; P(trend) = 0.01). The risk of Hodgkin's lymphoma for five or more older siblings compared with none was 0.41 (P(trend) = 0.003). Acute myeloid leukemia, chronic lymphocytic leukemia, and other lymphoproliferative malignancies were not associated with number of siblings. In conclusion, we found an excess risk of childhood ALL and acute monocytic leukemia in large families. However, for ALL, acute monocytic leukemia, and Hodgkin's lymphoma, younger siblings were strongly protected compared with older siblings. The remarkable protective effect of number of older siblings on acute monocytic leukemia is a novel finding of potential interest. Possible interpretations of our findings in the context of a putative infectious etiology are discussed.

Childhood leukaemia and ordnance factories in west Cumbria during the Second World War

Much evidence has accumulated that childhood leukaemia (CL) is a rare response to a common, but unidentified, infection and in particular that situations involving the unusual mixing of urban and rural groups (approximating to, respectively, groups infected with, and susceptible to, the relevant microorganism) can produce localised epidemics with consequent increases of the infrequent leukaemic complication. During the Second World War, explosives production factories were built and operated at Drigg and Sellafield, and a shell filling factory at Bootle, in west Cumbria, England, requiring substantial numbers of construction workers to be brought into this remote and isolated area. Following the design of an earlier study of CL near large (post-war) rural construction sites, mortality from this disease was investigated with the help of the Office of National Statistics, in the area around these Cumbrian factories where local workers largely lived, during the construction period and with particular reference to the overlapping construction and operational phase when the mixing of local and migrant workers would have been greatest. An excess of leukaemia deaths at ages 1-14 was found during the construction period (observed 3; observed/expected (O/E) 2.2, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.6, 6.0), which was more marked and statistically significant during the overlap with operations (O 3; O/E 4.5, 95% CI: 1.1, 12.2), especially at ages 1-4 (O 2; O/E 7.1, CI: 1.2, 23.6). A previous investigation did not detect this excess because it considered only a small part of west Cumbria that omitted the communities where most of the workforce lived, having incorrectly attributed the post-war expansion of the village of Seascale (situated between Drigg and Sellafield) to the wartime ordnance factories. The present findings are consistent with the results of the earlier study of rural construction projects and with the general evidence that marked rural-urban population mixing increases the risk of CL.

No CMV DNA in Guthrie cards from children who later developed ALL

An association of a viral infection in utero and development of acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) has been suggested. Cytomegalovirus (CMV) has been reported as a leading agent of intrauterine infections resulting in some cases of congenital infections. The authors investigated the presence of prenatal CMV infection in children who later developed ALL. Guthrie cards were obtained from 48 children with ALL and 46 healthy children and were analyzed for the presence of CMV DNA by a real-time TaqMan PCR. CMV DNA was not detected in Guthrie cards from the children with ALL, from the control healthy children. The results show that prenatal CMV infection does not seem to be associated with later development of childhood ALL.

Population-mixing at the place of residence at the time of birth and incidence of childhood leukaemia in France

The association between the risk of childhood leukaemia before age 7 years and population-mixing at the place of residence at birth was investigated by retrospectively considering all the children born in mainland French communes between 1st January 1990 and 31st December 1998. An increased risk of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia was found with higher levels of migration for children residing at birth in isolated communes with a population density > or =50 people per km2 (SIRR = 2.59, 95% CI: 1.48-4.49). No association was observed with lower population densities. For children residing in non-isolated communes at birth, the results were similar but less marked. The risk tended to increase only for population densities > or =5000 people per km2 (SIRR = 1.57, 95% CI: 0.99-2.52). The findings are consistent with epidemic models and support the hypothesis of an infectious aetiology relating to population-mixing. Population density may be seen as an indicator of the opportunity of contacts between inhabitants and should therefore be taken into account when investigating an infectious hypothesis. This is the first systematic study of population-mixing at the place of residence at the time of birth to be conducted on a national scale.

Infection, immune responses and the aetiology of childhood leukaemia

Childhood leukaemia is the principal subtype of paediatric cancer and, despite success in treatment, its causes remain enigmatic. A plethora of candidate environmental exposures have been proposed, but most lack a biological rationale or consistent epidemiological evidence. Although there might not be a single or exclusive cause, an abnormal immune response to common infection(s) has emerged as a plausible aetiological mechanism.

Association of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia with cancers in family members

Children whose twins have had leukaemia have a higher risk of contracting acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL), confirming a prenatal origin of the disease. This association was not true when considering other types of affected first-degree relatives. Children whose fathers were diagnosed with testicular cancer have a higher risk of ALL.

Allergy and infectious disease histories and the risk of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia

Infectious disease histories were evaluated in a population-based case-control study of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) as it has been hypothesised that delays in early infections are associated with an increased risk of disease. Allergy histories were also assessed as part of a broader evaluation of the role of immune factors in ALL. Cases (n = 255) were diagnosed between 1980 and 1991 at one of four referral centres in a 31-county area of New York State; controls (n = 760) were a random sample of live births from the same region, frequency matched to cases by sex, race and birth year. Data were collected by mailed questionnaire, completed by case and control parents in 1995. Allergy and infectious histories before the age at leukaemia diagnosis for cases and an equivalent age for controls were evaluated. The adjusted odds ratio and 95% confidence interval [CI] associated with a positive history of any allergy was 0.58 [95% CI 0.38, 0.88] compared with a negative allergy history. The occurrence of several common childhood illnesses before 25 months of age and ALL were assessed, with both weak positive and weak inverse associations observed. Overall, these analyses provide little support for the hypothesis that infection delay in early life is associated with an increased risk of ALL. Children with positive allergy histories reported significantly more infections than those with negative histories; however, effect modification of the infection-ALL associations by child allergy history was not observed. Nonetheless, these observations suggest the importance of assessing both allergy and infectious histories and their possible interactions when evaluating the association between these immune factors and childhood ALL.

Human herpes virus 6 or Epstein-Barr virus were not detected in Guthrie cards from children who later developed leukaemia

To investigate if children who later developed acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) were prenatally infected with HHV-6 and/or EBV, Guthrie cards taken at birth were analysed by PCR. Guthrie cards from 54 patients with ALL and 47 healthy controls matched for age and birth place were tested negative for both HHV-6 and EBV DNA. All samples contained amplifiable DNA when tested by HLA-DQ PCR. Our negative findings suggest that childhood ALL is unlikely to be associated with an in utero infection with EBV or HHV-6.

Infections and immune factors in cancer: the role of epidemiology

An infective, mostly viral, basis has been found in an increasing number of different human cancers. In all cases, the neoplasm is a rare response to the relevant infection, which is usually present in persistent form, and requiring specific cofactors for malignancy to develop. In some cases, epidemiological evidence of infectivity preceded and promoted identification of the specific infection involved and even the discovery of the microbe itself, as in Burkitt's lymphoma and cervix cancer. In other cases, the discovery of the agent came first as in stomach and nasopharynx cancers, and epidemiology has been concerned mainly with confirming the relationship, measuring the size of the risk and identifying cofactors. Infection-linked cancers include some of the commonest malignancies in certain large world regions, amounting to over 20% of all cancer in the developing countries. In addition to these cancers are others such as childhood leukaemia that show features indicative of an infective basis though no underlying agent has been identified. Advances in this field invite speculation about possible future discoveries and how these might be promoted. However, in that majority of cancers that are unrelated to sexual behaviour, there will be nothing even at the population level to suggest an infective basis because what is transmitted from one individual to another is not the neoplasm itself, but the underlying, often silent, infection to which the malignancy is an uncommon response. The increasing prevalence of immune impairment in human populations, as a result of the use of immunosuppressive drugs with organ transplants and the spread of HIV infection, has produced marked effects on cancer incidence in the affected groups including increases, of skin cancers, non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and Kaposi's sarcoma and to a lesser extent of many other cancers, in some cases at least due to the release from immunological control of incipient infection-based malignancies.

Childhood leukaemia incidence and the population mixing hypothesis in US SEER data

We evaluated the infectious aetiology hypothesis of childhood leukaemia that rapid population influx into rural areas is associated with increased risk. Using data from the US SEER program, we found that in changes in rural county population sizes from 1980 to 1989 were associated with incidence rates for childhood acute lymphocytic leukaemia (ALL). The observed associations were strongest among children 0-4 years of age, born in the same state as diagnosis, in extremely rural counties, and when counties adjacent to nonrural counties were excluded. Similar analyses for brain and central nervous system (CNS) cancer in children, a disease less linked to this infectious hypothesis, provide evidence against methodologic bias. Similar evaluations for other decades were not meaningful due to limited sample sizes and, perhaps, increased population mobility.

Probability estimates for the unique childhood leukemia cluster in Fallon, Nevada, and risks near other U.S. Military aviation facilities

A unique cluster of childhood leukemia has recently occurred around the city of Fallon in Churchill County, Nevada. From 1999 to 2001, 11 cases were diagnosed in this county of 23,982 people. Exposures related to a nearby naval air station such as jet fuel or an infectious agent carried by naval aviators have been hypothesized as potential causes. The possibility that the cluster could be attributed to chance was also considered. We used data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER) to examine the likelihood that chance could explain this cluster. We also used SEER and California Cancer Registry data to evaluate rates of childhood leukemia in other U.S. counties with military aviation facilities. The age-standardized rate ratio (RR) in Churchill County was 12.0 [95% confidence interval (CI), 6.0-21.4; p = 4.3 times symbol 10(-9)]. A cluster of this magnitude would be expected to occur in the United States by chance about once every 22,000 years. The age-standardized RR for the five cases diagnosed after the cluster was first reported was 11.2 (95% CI, 3.6-26.3). In contrast, the incidence rate was not increased in all other U.S. counties with military aviation bases (RR = 1.04; 95% CI, 0.97-1.12) or in the subset of rural counties with military aviation bases (RR = 0.72; 95% CI, 0.48-1.08). These findings suggest that the Churchill County cluster was unlikely due to chance, but no general increase in childhood leukemia was found in other U.S. counties with military aviation bases.

Day care, childhood infections, and risk of neuroblastoma

Neuroblastoma is the most common cancer in infants worldwide, but little is known about its etiology. Infectious etiologies involving the immune system have been hypothesized for some childhood cancers, especially leukemia, but the role of infectious agents in neuroblastoma has not been fully investigated. The authors used data from a large case-control study conducted by the Children's Oncology Group in the United States and Canada in 1992-1994 to investigate whether there was any relation among day-care attendance, childhood infections, allergies, and neuroblastoma. They interviewed mothers of 538 case children and 504 age-matched control children by telephone about several factors, including pregnancy, medical history, lifestyle, and childhood medical conditions and exposures. The results suggested decreased risks associated with day-care attendance (odds ratio (OR) = 0.81, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.56, 1.17), childhood infectious diseases (chickenpox, mumps, red measles, and German measles) (OR = 0.60, 95% CI: 0.39, 0.93), and allergies (OR = 0.68, 95% CI: 0.44, 1.07). The authors found reduced neuroblastoma risk associated with markers of potential childhood infections. This suggests a possible role of infectious agents in neuroblastoma etiology. Future epidemiologic studies should incorporate more direct data on infection.

Childhood solid tumours in relation to population mixing around the time of birth

In a retrospective cohort study of 673 787 live births in the Northern Region of England, 1975-1994, we investigated whether a higher level of population mixing around birth was a risk factor for solid tumours, by diagnostic group (Hodgkin's disease, brain and spinal tumours, neuroblastoma, other solid tumours), diagnosed during 1975-2001 under age 15 years. Logistic regression was used to relate risk to population mixing, based on (i) all movers and (ii) incomers from outside the region. Both ward and county district level analyses were performed. There was a decreased risk of brain and spinal tumours with increasing population mixing based on incomers from outside the region (OR for trend across three categories=0.79, 95% CI: 0.66-0.95, P=0.01 in the ward level analysis). Although this may be because of chance, it is consistent with a role of exposure to infection and immunological response in the aetiology of these tumours. For other tumour groups, there was no consistent evidence of an association between risk and population mixing.

Population mixing and leukaemia in young people around the La Hague nuclear waste reprocessing plant

In order to investigate for an association between population mixing and the occurrence of leukaemia in young people (less than 25 years), a geographical study was conducted, for the years 1979 to 1998, in Nord Cotentin (France). This area experienced between the years 1978 and 1992 a major influx of workers for the construction of a nuclear power station and a new nuclear waste reprocessing unit. A population mixing index was defined on the basis of the number of workers born outside the French department of 'La Manche' and living in each 'commune', the basic geographical unit under study. The analyses were done with indirect standardisation and Poisson regression model allowing or not for extra-Poisson variation. Urban 'communes' were considered as the reference population. The Incidence Rate Ratio was 2.7 in rural 'communes' belonging to the highest tertile of population mixing (95% Bayesian credible interval, 95%BCI=1.2-5.9). A positive trend was observed among rural strata with increasing population mixing index (IRR for trend=1.4, 95%BCI=1.1-1.8). The risk became stronger for Acute Lymphoblastic Leukaemia in children 1-6 years old in the highest tertile of population mixing (IRR=5.5, 95%BCI=1.4-23.3). These findings provide further support for a possible infective basis of childhood leukaemia.

Epidemiologic studies in a population-based childhood cancer registry in Northeast Hungary

BACKGROUND

Reports on the patterns of childhood cancer incidence are rare in Eastern Europe. To compare incidence rates and trends with international data, we processed records of the regional childhood cancer registry of Northeast Hungary.

PROCEDURE

Our computerized database contains population-based information on childhood cancer cases (<15 years) diagnosed in residents of two counties of Hungary: leukaemias from 1973, non-CNS solid tumours from 1978, and CNS tumours from 1984. After a retrospective evaluation of completeness of ascertainment, descriptive epidemiologic analyses were performed for the years of operation of the registry. Age-standardized annual incidence rates and age-specific incidences were calculated. Trends were evaluated in linear regression analysis.

RESULTS

The distribution of major histologic groups was similar to those observed in the Western countries with the exception that central nervous system tumours account for a higher percentage (27.3%). Average age-standardized annual incidence rates were as follows: all types of cancer: 120.7 per million; leukaemia: 37.3; CNS tumours: 31.6; lymphomas: 12.2; sympathetic nervous system tumours: 12.5; kidney tumours: 8.8. Significant increases were observed in incidence of leukaemia (average annual percent change AAPC: 0.7%), acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (AAPC: 1.9%), and all cancer groups (AAPC: 2.6%), but not in acute non-lymphocytic leukaemia or in CNS tumours. The strongest increases in cancer incidence were detected in the age group of 10-14 years (AAPC: 4.4%) and in infants (AAPC: 12.9%).

CONCLUSIONS

Incidences and trends are in accordance with the data in the latest literature, however, the contribution of CNS tumours and the rate of increase in total cancer incidence proved to be higher. Further detailed genetic and environmental studies of cancer registries may shed light on the etiology of the observed differences whether they represent a pattern specific for this region.

Day-care, early common infections and childhood acute leukaemia: a multicentre French case-control study

We conducted a case-control study to investigate the role of early infections in the aetiology of childhood acute leukaemias. The study included 280 incident cases (240 acute lymphoblastic leukaemia and 40 acute non-lymphoblastic leukaemia) and 288 hospital controls, frequency matched by age, gender, hospital, catchment area of the hospital and ethnic origin. Data were obtained from standardised face-to-face interviews of the mothers. The interviews included questions on early common infections, day-care attendance, breast-feeding, birth order and infantile diseases. Odds ratios were estimated using an unconditional regression model including the stratification variables, parental socio-economic status and perinatal characteristics. Birth order was not associated with childhood leukaemia (acute lymphoblastic or acute non-lymphoblastic). A statistically-significant inverse association was observed between childhood leukaemia and day-care attendance (odds ratio=0.6, 95% Confidence Interval=(0.4-1.0)), repeated early common infections (> or = 4 per year before age two, odds ratio=0.6 (0.4-1.0)), surgical procedures for ear-nose-throat infections before age two (odds ratio=0.5 (0.2-1.0)) and prolonged breast-feeding (> or = 6 months, odds ratio=0.5 (0.2-1.0)). In the multivariate model including day-care attendance, early common infections and breast-feeding, results concerning breast-feeding remained unchanged. A statistically significant interaction between day-care attendance and repeated early common infections was observed. When the interaction was taken into account, the simple effects of day-care and early common infections disappeared (odds ratio=1.1 (0.5-2.3) and odds ratio=0.8 (0.5-1.3), respectively) while the joint effect of day-care attendance and early common infections was negatively associated with childhood leukaemia (odds ratio=0.3 (0.1-0.8)). All the above associations were observed both for acute lymphoblastic leukaemia and acute non-lymphoblastic leukaemia. Our results support Greaves' hypothesis, even though they are not specific of common leukaemia.