Path analyses of selection

Spatiotemporal drivers of Nature's contributions to people: A county-level study

Nature's contributions to people (NCP) encompass both the beneficial and detrimental effects of living nature on human quality of life, including regulatory, material, and non-material contributions. Globally, vital NCPs have been deteriorating, accelerated by changes in both natural and anthropogenic drivers over recent decades. Despite the often inevitable trade-offs between NCPs due to their spatially and temporally uneven distributions, few studies have quantitatively assessed the impacts of different drivers on the spatial and temporal changes in multiple NCPs and their interrelationships. Here we evaluate the effects of precipitation, temperature, population, gross domestic product, vegetation restoration, and urban expansion on four key regulatory NCPs-habitat maintenance, climate regulation, water quantity regulation, and soil protection-in Nei Mongol at the county level. We observe increasing trends in climate regulation and soil protection from 2000 to 2019, contrasted with declining trends in habitat maintenance and water quantity regulation. We have identified the dominant positive and negative drivers influencing each NCP across individual counties, finding that natural drivers predominantly overpowered anthropogenic drivers. Furthermore, we discover significant spatial disparities in the trade-off or synergy relationships between NCPs across the counties. Our findings illustrate how the impacts of various drivers on NCPs and their interrelationships can be quantitatively evaluated, offering significant potential for application in various spatial scales. With an understanding of trade-offs and scale effects, these insights are expected to support and inform policymaking at both county and provincial levels.

Plant Phenotypes as Distributions: Johannsen's Beans Revisited

AbstractIn the early twentieth century, Wilhelm Johannsen's breeding experiments on pure lines of beans provided empirical support for his groundbreaking distinction between phenotype and genotype, the foundation stone of classical genetics. In contrast with the controversial history of the genotype concept, the notion of phenotype has remained essentially unrevised since then. The application of the Johannsenian concept of phenotype to modularly built, nonunitary plants, however, needs reexamination. In the first part of this article it is shown that Johannsen's appealing solution for dealing with the multiplicity of nonidentical organs produced by plant individuals (representing individual plant phenotypes by arithmetic means), which has persisted to this day, reflected his intellectual commitment to nineteenth-century typological thinking. Revisitation of Johannsen's results using current statistical tools upholds his major conclusion about the nature of heredity but at the same time falsifies two important ancillary conclusions of his experiments-namely, the alleged homogeneity of pure lines (genotypes) regarding seed weight variability and the lack of transgenerational effects of within-line (within-genotype) seed weight variation. The canonical notion of individual plant phenotypes as arithmetic means should therefore be superseded by a concept of phenotype as a dual property, consisting of central tendency and variability components of organ trait distribution. Phenotype duality offers a unifying framework applicable to all nonunitary organisms.

Exploring spatial-temporal driving factors for changes in multiple ecosystem services and their relationships in West Liao River Basin, China

Ecosystem services (ES) are the direct and indirect benefits people obtain from ecosystems, serving as a bridge linking ecological systems and social-economic systems. The quantitative assessment of the dynamic changes in ES and their relationships and the identification of the driving forces behind them have recently become a research hotspot. However, several research gaps remain challenging, such as the lack of an analytical framework for selecting relevant driving factors and the need for an innovative approach that integrally estimates the impacts of driving factors on the changes in ES and the relationships between ES. In this study, we modify the social-ecological system framework as the analytical basis and suggest a series of principles for selecting relevant driving factors, we then adopt the path analysis model to simultaneously and consistently quantify the contributions of driving factors to ES changes and their relationships. Using the West Liao River Basin (WLRB) as a case study, the results show the spatial-temporal variations in three ES and six driving factors from 2000 to 2020, divided into four periods. The estimation of path analysis model confirm two hypotheses that different driving factors exerted differential effects on changes in multiple ES in four periods for the whole WLRB and in three sub-basins for the period 2015-2020. In addition, the path analysis exhibits the quantitative relationships between food production, water yield, and soil conservation, which vary temporally and spatially in different periods and different sub-basins. The identification of driving factors is helpful for supporting policy-making to construct a coupled self-adjusted social-ecological for the benefit of the public.

A generalised approach to the study and understanding of adaptive evolution

Evolutionary theory has made large impacts on our understanding and management of the world, in part because it has been able to incorporate new data and new insights successfully. Nonetheless, there is currently a tension between certain biological phenomena and mainstream evolutionary theory. For example, how does the inheritance of molecular epigenetic changes fit into mainstream evolutionary theory? Is niche construction an evolutionary process? Is local adaptation via habitat choice also adaptive evolution? These examples suggest there is scope (and perhaps even a need) to broaden our views on evolution. We identify three aspects whose incorporation into a single framework would enable a more generalised approach to the understanding and study of adaptive evolution: (i) a broadened view of extended phenotypes; (ii) that traits can respond to each other; and (iii) that inheritance can be non-genetic. We use causal modelling to integrate these three aspects with established views on the variables and mechanisms that drive and allow for adaptive evolution. Our causal model identifies natural selection and non-genetic inheritance of adaptive parental responses as two complementary yet distinct and independent drivers of adaptive evolution. Both drivers are compatible with the Price equation; specifically, non-genetic inheritance of parental responses is captured by an often-neglected component of the Price equation. Our causal model is general and simplified, but can be adjusted flexibly in terms of variables and causal connections, depending on the research question and/or biological system. By revisiting the three examples given above, we show how to use it as a heuristic tool to clarify conceptual issues and to help design empirical research. In contrast to a gene-centric view defining evolution only in terms of genetic change, our generalised approach allows us to see evolution as a change in the whole causal structure, consisting not just of genetic but also of phenotypic and environmental variables.

Pollinator selection against toxic nectar as a key facilitator of a plant invasion

Plant compounds associated with herbivore defence occur widely in floral nectar and can impact pollinator health. We showed previously that Rhododendron ponticum nectar contains grayanotoxin I (GTX I) at concentrations that are lethal or sublethal to honeybees and a solitary bee in the plant's non-native range in Ireland. Here we further examined this conflict and tested the hypotheses that nectar GTX I is subject to negative pollinator-mediated selection in the non-native range, but that phenotypic linkage between GTX I levels in nectar and leaves acts as a constraint on independent evolution. We found that nectar GTX I experienced negative directional selection in the non-native range, in contrast to the native Iberian range, and that the magnitude and frequency of pollinator limitation indicated that selection was pollinator-mediated. Surprisingly, nectar GTX I levels were decoupled from those of leaves in the non-native range, which may have assisted post-invasion evolution of nectar without compromising the anti-herbivore function of GTX I (here demonstrated in bioassays with an ecologically relevant herbivore). Our study emphasizes the centrality of pollinator health as a concept linked to the invasion process, and how post-invasion evolution can be targeted toward minimizing lethal or sub-lethal effects on pollinators. This article is part of the theme issue 'Natural processes influencing pollinator health: from chemistry to landscapes'.

Proximate and ultimate drivers of variation in bite force in the insular lizards Podarcis melisellensis and Podarcis sicula

Bite force is a key performance trait in lizards because biting is involved in many ecologically relevant tasks, including foraging, fighting and mating. Several factors have been suggested to impact bite force in lizards, such as head morphology (proximate factors), or diet, intraspecific competition and habitat characteristics (ultimate factors). However, these have been generally investigated separately and mostly at the interspecific level. Here we tested which factors drive variation in bite force at the population level and to what extent. Our study includes 20 populations of two closely related lacertid species, Podarcis melisellensis and Podarcis sicula, which inhabit islands in the Adriatic. We found that lizards with more forceful bites have relatively wider and taller heads, and consume more hard prey and plant material. Island isolation correlates with bite force, probably by driving resource availability. Bite force is only poorly explained by proxies of intraspecific competition. The linear distance from a large island and the proportion of difficult-to-reduce food items consumed are the ultimate factors that explain most of the variation in bite force. Our findings suggest that the way in which morphological variation affects bite force is species-specific, probably reflecting the different selective pressures operating on the two species.

Assessing metacommunity processes through signatures in spatiotemporal turnover of community composition

Although metacommunity ecology has been a major field of research in the last decades, with both conceptual and empirical outputs, the analysis of the temporal dynamics of metacommunities has only emerged recently and consists mostly of repeated static analyses. Here we propose a novel analytical framework to assess metacommunity processes using path analyses of spatial and temporal diversity turnovers. We detail the principles and practical aspects of this framework and apply it to simulated datasets to illustrate its ability to decipher the respective contributions of entangled drivers of metacommunity dynamics. We then apply it to four empirical datasets. Empirical results support the view that metacommunity dynamics may be generally shaped by multiple ecological processes acting in concert, with environmental filtering being variable across both space and time. These results reinforce our call to go beyond static analyses of metacommunities that are blind to the temporal part of environmental variability.

The role of seed appendage in improving the adaptation of a species in definite seasons: a case study of Atriplex centralasiatica

BACKGROUND

As a common accompanying dispersal structure, specialized seed appendages play a critical role in the successful germination and dispersal of many plants, and are regarded as an adaptation character for plants survival in diverse environments. However, little is known about how the appendages modulate the linkage between germination and environmental factors. Here, we tested the responses of germination to seasonal environmental signals (temperature and humidity) via seed appendages using Atriplex centralasiatica, which is widely distributed in salt marshlands with dry-cold winter in northern China. Three types of heteromorphic diaspores that differ in morphology of persistent bracteole and dormancy levels are produced in an individual plant of A. centralasiatica.

RESULTS

Except for the nondormant diaspore (type A, with a brown seed enclosed in a persistent bracteole), bracteoles regulated inner seed dormancy of the other two dormant diaspore types, i.e., type B (flat diaspore with a black inner seed) and type C (globular diaspore with a black inner seed). For types B and C, germination of bracteole-free seeds was higher than that of intact diaspores, and was limited severely when incubated in the bracteole-soaking solution. Dormancy was released at a low temperature (< 10 °C) and suitable humidity (5-15%) condition. Oppositely, high temperature and unfit humidity induced secondary dormancy via inhibitors released by bracteoles. Type C with deeper dormancy needed more stringent conditions for dormancy release and was easier for dormancy inducement than type B. The germination windows were broadened and the time needed for dormancy release decreased after the bracteole flushing for the two dormant types in the field condition.

CONCLUSIONS

Bracteoles determine the germination adaptation by bridging seeds and environmental signals and promising seedlings establishment only in proper seasons, which may also restrict species geographical distribution and shift species distributing ranges under the global climate change scenarios.

Nectar robbers influence the trait-fitness relationship of Primula secundiflora

The trait-fitness relationship influences the strength and direction of floral evolution. To fully understand and predict the evolutionary trajectories of floral traits, it is critical to disentangle the direct and indirect effects of floral traits on plant fitness in natural populations. We experimentally quantified phenotypic selection on floral traits through female fitness and estimated the casual effects of nectar robbing with different nectar robbing intensities on trait-fitness relationships in both the L- (long-style and short-anther phenotype) and S-morph (short-style and long-anther phenotype) flowers among Primula secundiflora populations. A larger number of flowers and wider corolla tubes had both direct and indirect positive effects on female fitness in the P. secundiflora populations. The indirect effects of these two traits on female fitness were mediated by nectar robbers. The indirect effect of the number of flowers on female fitness increased with increasing nectar robbing intensity. In most populations, the direct and/or indirect effects of floral traits on female fitness were stronger in the S-morph flowers than in the L-morph flowers. In addition, nectar robbers had a direct positive effect on female fitness, but this effect varied between the L- and S-morph flowers. These results show the potential role of nectar robbers in influencing the trait-fitness relationships in this primrose species.

How to quantify (the response to) sexual selection on traits

Natural selection operates via fitness components like mating success, fecundity, and longevity, which can be understood as intermediaries in the causal process linking traits to fitness. In particular, sexual selection occurs when traits influence mating or fertilization success, which, in turn, influences fitness. We show how to quantify both these steps in a single path analysis, leading to better estimates of the strength of sexual selection. Our model controls for confounding variables, such as body size or condition, when estimating the relationship between mating and reproductive success. Correspondingly, we define the Bateman gradient and the Jones index using partial rather than simple regressions, which better captures how they are commonly interpreted. The model can be applied both to purely phenotypic data and to quantitative genetic parameters estimated using information on relatedness. The phenotypic approach breaks down selection differentials into a sexually selected and a "remainder" component. The quantitative genetic approach decomposes the estimated evolutionary response to selection analogously. We apply our method to analyze sexual selection in male dusky pipefish, Syngnathus floridae, and in two simulated datasets. We highlight conceptual and statistical limitations of previous path-based approaches, which can lead to substantial misestimation of sexual selection.

Osteocalcin and osteopontin influence bone morphology and mechanical properties

Osteocalcin (OC) and osteopontin (OPN) are major non-collagenous proteins (NCPs) involved in bone matrix organization and deposition. In spite of this, it is currently unknown whether OC and OPN alter bone morphology and consequently affect bone fracture resistance. The goal of this study is to establish the role of OC and OPN in the determination of cortical bone size, shape, and mechanical properties. Our results show that Oc-/- and Opn-/- mice were no different from each other or wild type (WT) with respect to bone morphology (P > 0.1). Bones from mice lacking both NCPs (Oc-/- Opn-/- ) were shorter, with thicker cortices and larger cortical areas, compared with the WT, Oc-/- , and Opn-/- groups (P < 0.05), suggesting a synergistic role for NCPs in the determination of bone morphology. Maximum bending load was significantly different among the groups (P = 0.024), while tissue mineral density and measures of stiffness and strength were not different (P > 0.1). We conclude that the removal of both OC and OPN from bone matrix induces morphological adaptation at the structural level to maintain bone strength.

On Reciprocal Causation in the Evolutionary Process

Recent calls for a revision of standard evolutionary theory (SET) are based partly on arguments about the reciprocal causation. Reciprocal causation means that cause-effect relationships are bi-directional, as a cause could later become an effect and vice versa. Such dynamic cause-effect relationships raise questions about the distinction between proximate and ultimate causes, as originally formulated by Ernst Mayr. They have also motivated some biologists and philosophers to argue for an Extended Evolutionary Synthesis (EES). The EES will supposedly expand the scope of the Modern Synthesis (MS) and SET, which has been characterized as gene-centred, relying primarily on natural selection and largely neglecting reciprocal causation. Here, I critically examine these claims, with a special focus on the last conjecture. I conclude that reciprocal causation has long been recognized as important by naturalists, ecologists and evolutionary biologists working in the in the MS tradition, although it it could be explored even further. Numerous empirical examples of reciprocal causation in the form of positive and negative feedback are now well known from both natural and laboratory systems. Reciprocal causation have also been explicitly incorporated in mathematical models of coevolutionary arms races, frequency-dependent selection, eco-evolutionary dynamics and sexual selection. Such dynamic feedback were already recognized by Richard Levins and Richard Lewontin in their bok The Dialectical Biologist. Reciprocal causation and dynamic feedback might also be one of the few contributions of dialectical thinking and Marxist philosophy in evolutionary theory. I discuss some promising empirical and analytical tools to study reciprocal causation and the implications for the EES. Finally, I briefly discuss how quantitative genetics can be adapated to studies of reciprocal causation, constructive inheritance and phenotypic plasticity and suggest that the flexibility of this approach might have been underestimated by critics of contemporary evolutionary biology.

Sexual selection reinforces a higher flight endurance in urban damselflies

Urbanization is among the most important and globally rapidly increasing anthropogenic processes and is known to drive rapid evolution. Habitats in urbanized areas typically consist of small, fragmented and isolated patches, which are expected to select for a better locomotor performance, along with its underlying morphological traits. This, in turn, is expected to cause differentiation in selection regimes, as populations with different frequency distributions for a given trait will span different parts of the species' fitness function. Yet, very few studies considered differentiation in phenotypic traits associated with patterns in habitat fragmentation and isolation along urbanization gradients, and none considered differentiation in sexual selection regimes. We investigated differentiation in flight performance and flight-related traits and sexual selection on these traits across replicated urban and rural populations of the scrambling damselfly Coenagrion puella. To disentangle direct and indirect paths going from phenotypic traits over performance to mating success, we applied a path analysis approach. We report for the first time direct evidence for the expected better locomotor performance in urban compared to rural populations. This matches a scenario of spatial sorting, whereby only the individuals with the best locomotor abilities colonize the isolated urban populations. The covariation patterns and causal relationships among the phenotypic traits, performance and mating success strongly depended on the urbanization level. Notably, we detected sexual selection for a higher flight endurance only in urban populations, indicating that the higher flight performance of urban males was reinforced by sexual selection. Taken together, our results provide a unique proof of the interplay between sexual selection and adaptation to human-altered environments.

MEASURING THE EFFECTS OF PAIRING SUCCESS, EXTRA-PAIR COPULATIONS AND MATE QUALITY ON THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SEXUAL SELECTION

Sexual selection can act through variation in the number of social mates obtained, variation in mate quality, or variation in success at obtaining extra-pair fertilizations. Because within-pair fertilizations (WPF) and extra-pair fertilizations (EPF) are alternate routes of reproduction, they are additive, rather than multiplicative, components of fitness. We present a method for partitioning total variance in reproductive success (a measure of the opportunity for selection) when fitness components are both additive and multiplicative and use it to partition the variance into components that correspond to each mechanism of sexual selection. Computer simulations show that extra-pair fertilizations can either increase or decrease total variance, depending on the covariance between within-pair and extra-pair success. Simulations also suggest that for socially monogamous species, extra-pair fertilizations have a greater effect than variation in mate quality or pairing status on the opportunity for selection. Application of our model to data gathered for a population of red-winged blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus) indicates that most of the variance in male reproductive success was attributable to within-pair sources of variance. Nevertheless, extra-pair copulations increased the opportunity for selection because males varied both in the proportion of their social young that they sired and in the number of extra-pair mates that they obtained. Furthermore, large and positive covariances existed between the number of extra-pair mates a male obtained and both social pairing success and within-pair paternity, indicating that, in this population, males preferred as social mates also were preferred as extra-pair mates.

Lack of functional link in the tadpole morphology induced by predators

Most studies of predator-induced plasticity have focused on documenting how prey species respond to predators by modifying phenotypic traits and how traits correlate with fitness. We have previously shown that Pleurodema thaul tadpoles exposed to the dragonfly Rhionaeschna variegata responded strongly by showing morphological changes, less activity, and better survival than non-exposed tadpoles. Here, we tested whether there is a functional link between morphological plasticity and increased survival in the presence of predators. Tadpoles that experienced predation risk were smaller, less developed, and much less active than tadpoles without this experience. Burst speed did not correlate significantly with morphological changes and predator-induced deeper tails did not act as a lure to divert predator strikes away from the head. Although we have previously found that tadpoles with predator-induced morphology survive better under a direct predator threat, our results on the functional link between morphology and fitness are not conclusive. Our results suggest that in P. thaul tadpoles (1) burst speed is not important to evade predators, (2) those exposed to predators reduce their activity, and (3) morphological changes do not divert predator attacks away from areas that compromise tadpole survivalEE. Our results show that morphological changes in P. thaul tadpoles do not explain burst speed or lure attraction, although there was a clear reduction of activity, which itself reduces predation. We propose that changes in tadpole activity could be further analyzed from another perspective, with morphological change as an indirect product of behavior mediated by physiological mechanisms.

Role of phenotypic plasticity and population differentiation in adaptation to novel environmental conditions

Species can adapt to new environmental conditions either through individual phenotypic plasticity, intraspecific genetic differentiation in adaptive traits, or both. Wild emmer wheat, Triticum dicoccoides, an annual grass with major distribution in Eastern Mediterranean region, is predicted to experience in the near future, as a result of global climate change, conditions more arid than in any part of the current species distribution. To understand the role of the above two means of adaptation, and the effect of population range position, we analyzed reaction norms, extent of plasticity, and phenotypic selection across two experimental environments of high and low water availability in two core and two peripheral populations of this species. We studied 12 quantitative traits, but focused primarily on the onset of reproduction and maternal investment, which are traits that are closely related to fitness and presumably involved in local adaptation in the studied species. We hypothesized that the population showing superior performance under novel environmental conditions will either be genetically differentiated in quantitative traits or exhibit higher phenotypic plasticity than the less successful populations. We found the core population K to be the most plastic in all three trait categories (phenology, reproductive traits, and fitness) and most successful among populations studied, in both experimental environments; at the same time, the core K population was clearly genetically differentiated from the two edge populations. Our results suggest that (1) two means of successful adaptation to new environmental conditions, phenotypic plasticity and adaptive genetic differentiation, are not mutually exclusive ways of achieving high adaptive ability; and (2) colonists from some core populations can be more successful in establishing beyond the current species range than colonists from the range extreme periphery with conditions seemingly closest to those in the new environment.

Selection and evolution of causally covarying traits

When traits cause variation in fitness, the distribution of phenotype, weighted by fitness, necessarily changes. The degree to which traits cause fitness variation is therefore of central importance to evolutionary biology. Multivariate selection gradients are the main quantity used to describe components of trait-fitness covariation, but they quantify the direct effects of traits on (relative) fitness, which are not necessarily the total effects of traits on fitness. Despite considerable use in evolutionary ecology, path analytic characterizations of the total effects of traits on fitness have not been formally incorporated into quantitative genetic theory. By formally defining "extended" selection gradients, which are the total effects of traits on fitness, as opposed to the existing definition of selection gradients, a more intuitive scheme for characterizing selection is obtained. Extended selection gradients are distinct quantities, differing from the standard definition of selection gradients not only in the statistical means by which they may be assessed and the assumptions required for their estimation from observational data, but also in their fundamental biological meaning. Like direct selection gradients, extended selection gradients can be combined with genetic inference of multivariate phenotypic variation to provide quantitative prediction of microevolutionary trajectories.

Florivore impacts on plant reproductive success and pollinator mortality in an obligate pollination mutualism

Florivores are present in many pollination systems and can have direct and indirect effects on both plants and pollinators. Although the impact of florivores are commonly examined in facultative pollination mutualisms, their effects on obligate mutualism remain relatively unstudied. Here, we used experimental manipulations and surveys of naturally occurring plants to assess the effect of florivory on the obligate pollination mutualism between yuccas and yucca moths. Yucca filamentosa (Agavaceae) is pollinated by the moth Tegeticula cassandra (Lepidoptera: Prodoxidae), and the mutualism also attracts two florivores: a generalist, the leaf-footed bug Leptoglossus phyllopus (Hemiptera: Coreidae), and a specialist, the beetle Hymenorus densus (Coleoptera: Tenebrionidae). Experimental manipulations of leaf-footed bug densities on side branches of Y. filamentosa inflorescences demonstrated that feeding causes floral abscission but does not reduce pollen or seed production in the remaining flowers. Similar to the leaf-footed bugs, experimental manipulations of beetle densities within individual flowers demonstrated that beetle feeding also causes floral abscission, but, in addition, the beetles also cause a significant reduction in pollen availability. Path analyses of phenotypic selection based on surveys of naturally occurring plants revealed temporal variation in the plant traits important to plant fitness and the effects of the florivores on fitness. Leaf-footed bugs negatively impacted fitness when fewer plants were flowering and leaf-footed bug density was high, whereas beetles had a positive effect on fitness when there were many plants flowering and their densities were low. This positive effect was likely due to adult beetles consuming yucca moth eggs while having a negligible effect on floral abscission. Together, the actions of both florivores either augmented the relationship of plant traits and fitness or slightly weakened the relationship. Overall, the results suggest that, although florivores are always present during flowering, the impact of florivores on phenotypic selection in yuccas is strongly mitigated by changes in their densities on plants from year to year. In contrast, both florivores consistently influenced pollinator larval mortality through floral abscission, and H. densus beetles additionally via the consumption of pollinator eggs.

Geography of the circadian gene clock and photoperiodic response in western North American populations of the three-spined stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus

Controlled laboratory experiments were used to show that Oregon and Alaskan three-spined stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus, collected from locations differing by 18° of latitude, exhibited no significant variation in length of the polyglutamine domain of the clock protein or in photoperiodic response within or between latitudes despite the fact that male and female G. aculeatus are photoperiodic at both latitudes. Hence, caution is urged when interpreting variation in the polyglutamine repeat (PolyQ) domain of the gene clock in the context of seasonal activities or in relationship to photoperiodism along geographical gradients.

Visualizing and quantifying natural selection

Modern methods of analysis are enabling researchers to study natural selection at a new level of detail. Multivariate statistical techniques can Identify specific targets of selection and provide parameter estimates that fit into equations for evolutionary change. A more Intuitive understanding of the form of selection can be provided through graphical representation of selection surfaces. Combinations of quantitative and visual analyses are providing researchers with new insights into the details of natural selection in the wild.

Ecological constraints on female fitness in a phytophagous insect

Although understanding female reproduction is crucial for population demography, determining how and to what relative extent it is constrained by different ecological factors is complicated by difficulties in studying the links between individual behavior, life history, and fitness in nature. We present data on females in a natural population of the butterfly Leptidea sinapis. These data were combined with climate records and laboratory estimates of life-history parameters to predict the relative impact of different ecological constraints on female fitness in the wild. Using simulation models, we partitioned effects of male courtship, host plant availability, and temperature on female fitness. Results of these models indicate that temperature is the most constraining factor on female fitness, followed by host plant availability; the short-term negative effects of male courtship that were detected in the field study were less important in models predicting female reproductive success over the entire life span. In the simulations, females with more reproductive reserves were more limited by the ecological variables. Reproductive physiology and egg-laying behavior were therefore predicted to be co-optimized but reach different optima for females of different body sizes; this prediction is supported by the empirical data. This study thus highlights the need for studying behavioral and life-history variation in orchestration to achieve a more complete picture of both demographic and evolutionary processes in naturally variable and unpredictable environments.

Fitness consequences of social network position in a wild population of forked fungus beetles (Bolitotherus cornutus)

Social networks describe the pattern of intraspecific interactions within a population. An individual's position in a social network often is expected to influence its fitness, but only a few studies have examined this relationship in natural populations. We investigated the fitness consequences of network position in a wild beetle population. Copulation success of male beetles positively covaried with strength (a measure of network centrality) and negatively covaried with clustering coefficient (CC) (a measure of cliquishness). Further analysis using mediation path models suggested that the activity level of individuals drove the relationships between strength and fitness almost entirely. In contrast, selection on CC was not explained by individual behaviours. Although our data suggest that social network position can experience strong sexual selection, it is also clear that the relationships between fitness and some network metrics merely reflect variation in individual-level behaviours.

Testing for causality in covarying traits: genes and latitude in a molecular world

Many traits are assumed to have a causal (necessary) relationship with one another because of their common covariation with a physiological, ecological or geographical factor. Herein, we demonstrate a straightforward test for inferring causality using residuals from regression of the traits with the common factor. We illustrate this test using the covariation with latitude of a proxy for the circadian clock and a proxy for the photoperiodic timer in Drosophila and salmon. A negative result of this test means that further discussion of the adaptive significance of a causal connection between the covarying traits is unwarranted. A positive result of this test provides a point of departure that can then be used as a platform from which to determine experimentally the underlying functional connections and only then to discuss their adaptive significance.

Effects of causal networks on the structure and stability of resource allocation trait correlations

Discovering the mechanisms by which genetic variation influences phenotypes is integral to understanding life-history evolution. Models describing causal relationships among traits in a developmental hierarchy provide a functional basis for understanding the correlations often observed among life-history traits. In this paper, we evaluate a developmental network model of life-history traits based on the perennial herb Arabidopsis lyrata, evaluate phenotypic, genetic, and environmental covariance matrices obtained under different scenarios of quantitative trait locus (QTL) effects in simulated crosses, test the efficacy of structural equation modeling to identify the correct basis for multiple-trait QTL effects, and compare model predictions with field data. We found that the trait network constrained the phenotypic covariance patterns to varying degrees, depending on which traits were directly affected by QTLs. Genetic and environmental covariance matrices were strongly correlated only when direct QTL effects were spread over many traits. Structural equation models that included all simulated traits correctly identified traits directly affected by QTLs, but heuristic search algorithms found several network structures other than the correct one that also fit the data closely. Estimated correlations among a subset of traits in F(2) data from field studies corresponded closely to model predictions when simulated QTLs affected traits known to differ between the parental populations. Our results show that causal trait network models can unify several aspects of quantitative genetic theory with empirical observations on genetic and phenotypic covariance patterns, and that incorporating trait networks into genetic analysis offers promise for elucidating mechanisms of life history evolution.