Coronary heart disease morbidity and mortality in hypercholesterolemic men predicted from an exercise test: the Lipid Research Clinics Coronary Primary Prevention Trial

Prediction and causal inference of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases based on lifestyle questionnaires

Cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases (CCVD) are prominent mortality causes in Japan, necessitating effective preventative measures, early diagnosis, and treatment to mitigate their impact. A diagnostic model was developed to identify patients with ischemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, or both, using specific health examination data. Lifestyle habits affecting CCVD development were analyzed using five causal inference methods. This study included 473,734 patients aged ≥ 40 years who underwent specific health examinations in Kanazawa, Japan between 2009 and 2018 to collect data on basic physical information, lifestyle habits, and laboratory parameters such as diabetes, lipid metabolism, renal function, and liver function. Four machine learning algorithms were used: Random Forest, Logistic regression, Light Gradient Boosting Machine, and eXtreme-Gradient-Boosting (XGBoost). The XGBoost model exhibited superior area under the curve (AUC), with mean values of 0.770 (± 0.003), 0.758 (± 0.003), and 0.845 (± 0.005) for stroke, IHD, and CCVD, respectively. The results of the five causal inference analyses were summarized, and lifestyle behavior changes were observed after the onset of CCVD. A causal relationship from 'reduced mastication' to 'weight gain' was found for all causal species theory methods. This prediction algorithm can screen for asymptomatic myocardial ischemia and stroke. By selecting high-risk patients suspected of having CCVD, resources can be used more efficiently for secondary testing.

Cardiovascular risk in high-hazard occupations: the role of occupational cardiology

Work is beneficial for health, but many individuals develop cardiovascular disease (CVD) during their working lives. Occupational cardiology is an emerging field that combines traditional cardiology sub-specialisms with prevention and risk management unique to specific employment characteristics and conditions. In some occupational settings incapacitation through CVD has the potential to be catastrophic due to the nature of work and/or the working environment. These are often termed 'hazardous' or 'high-hazard' occupations. Consequently, many organizations that employ individuals in high-hazard roles undertake pre-employment medicals and periodic medical examinations to screen for CVD. The identification of CVD that exceeds predefined employer (or regulatory body) risk thresholds can result in occupational restriction, or disqualification, which may be temporary or permanent. This article will review the evidence related to occupational cardiology for several high-hazard occupations related to aviation and space, diving, high altitude, emergency workers, commercial transportation, and the military. The article will focus on environmental risk, screening, surveillance, and risk management for the prevention of events precipitated by CVD. Occupational cardiology is a challenging field that requires a broad understanding of general cardiology, environmental, and occupational medicine principles. There is a current lack of consensus and contemporary evidence which requires further research. Provision of evidence-based, but individualized, risk stratification and treatment plans is required from specialists that understand the complex interaction between work and the cardiovascular system. There is a current lack of consensus and contemporary evidence in occupational cardiology and further research is required.

Coronary artery calcium and exercise electrocardiogram as predictors of coronary events in asymptomatic adults

Early identification of patients at risk for coronary heart disease is crucial to formulate effective preventive strategies. The elevated risk of coronary artery calcium (CAC) for coronary heart disease is well established. Our aim was to estimate the relative risk of abnormal exercise electrocardiography (Ex ECG) in the presence of CAC. During the year 2001, 566 asymptomatic subjects performed a treadmill exercise test and consented to perform an unenhanced computed tomography to assess CAC. Patients were followed until December 2012. The relative risk for coronary events (acute myocardial infarction, hospitalization for unstable angina or coronary catheterization that resulted in angioplasty or coronary artery bypass surgery), of abnormal Ex ECG and presence of CAC were analyzed. An abnormal Ex ECG was found in 71 subjects (12.5%), and CAC was found in 286 subjects (50.5%). During a mean follow-up of 6.5 ± 3.3 years, 35 subjects experienced a first coronary event. In those without CAC, the rate of coronary events was low (4 of 280; 1.4%) regardless of the Ex ECG results. Subjects with both CAC and abnormal Ex ECG had the highest rate of coronary events (13 of 39; 33%). The adjusted hazard ratio for coronary events, in subjects with CAC, was 5.16 (95% confidence interval 2.52 to 10.60) in those with abnormal Ex ECG compared with those with normal Ex ECG. In conclusion, in subjects with CAC, further risk stratification can be achieved by an Ex ECG, whereas in those without CAC, an Ex ECG has less additional value in predicting coronary events.

Screening for asymptomatic coronary heart disease in the young 'at risk' population: Who and how?

Deaths due to coronary heart disease (CHD) remain high worldwide, despite recent achievements. An effective screening strategy may improve outcomes further if implemented in a high or ‘at risk’ cohort. Asymptomatic CHD in the young maybe underappreciated and applying an effective screening strategy to a young cohort may lead to improved outcomes due to significant socioeconomic impact from the consequences of CHD in this sub-group. A positive family history of CHD, which is known to be associated with an increased risk of future myocardial events, could aid in identifying the ‘at risk’ young cohort.

Traditional cardiovascular risk scoring systems are in wide use but lack the sensitivity or specificity required to estimate risk in an individual. Rather their use is limited to predicting population attributable risk. Functional studies such as exercise stress tests are readily available and cost effective but do not have the required sensitivity required to suggest their use as part of a screening protocol. Coronary CT angiography has been demonstrated to have high sensitivity for the detection of CHD and therefore may be suitable for screening purposes but there are concerns regarding radiation exposure.

Here we review the evidence for the use of potential screening strategies and the suitability of using such strategies to estimate risk of CHD in a young ‘at risk’ population.

Assessing the clinical utility of biomarkers in medicine

Biomarkers in medicine have gained immense scientific and clinical interest in recent years. Biomarkers are potentially useful in the contexts of primary, secondary and tertiary prevention. Some of the characteristics of an ideal biomarker include that they are safe and easy to measure, are associated with acceptable costs (including those of the follow-up tests), and there is scientific evidence to suggest that biomarker use/modification influences disease outcomes. Additionally, variation in biomarker levels with gender and ethnicity should be elucidated, and the biomarker should have 'good performance characteristics' (i.e., sensitivity, specificity, positive- and negative-predictive values and positive- and negative-likelihood ratios). Risk prediction scores can combine information from several different biomarkers in order to estimate an individual's risk of developing an outcome, such as disease or death. Three commonly employed methods to test if a biomarker will add to traditional risk prediction models are model discrimination, model calibration and risk reclassification. 'Multimarker' strategies serve to integrate information from multiple biomarkers into risk prediction but may be limited by the presence of highly correlated biomarkers, economic costs and selection bias of biomarker candidates in a particular study sample. In the future, integration of biomarkers identified using emerging technologies from the 'omics fields (including genomics, proteomics, metabolomics, lipomics, ribomics and pharmacogenomics) may be useful for the 'personalization' of treatment/disease prevention.

Waist circumference and metabolic syndrome: the risk for silent coronary artery disease in males

BACKGROUND

Waist circumference (WC) is a component used to define metabolic syndrome. However, its role as an independent predictor of silent coronary artery disease (CAD), above its contribution to metabolic syndrome, remains unknown.

METHODS

Male veterans without known CAD, undergoing cardiac stress testing for indications other than typical angina or its equivalent, were evaluated for the presence of silent CAD. High WC and metabolic syndrome were defined per the revised National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP-R) and the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) criteria.

RESULTS

Data on 1,071 patients (age 61±11 years) were analyzed retrospectively. On multivariable logistic regression analysis [odds ratio (OR), 95% confidence interval (CI), P value), a WC ≥94 cm (1.42, 1.04-1.93; P=0.026), metabolic syndrome by NCEP-R (1.73, 1.29-2.33; P<0.0001), and metabolic syndrome by IDF (1.57, 1.17-2.11; P=0.003) were independent predictors of silent CAD. When comparing patients meeting criteria for metabolic syndrome defined by either NCEP-R or IDF, the prevalence of silent CAD was not statistically different (P=0.86). The prevalence of silent CAD associated with a high WC was not inferior to that seen between silent CAD and metabolic syndrome as defined by either criterion. Last, among patients with metabolic syndrome defined by NCEP-R, those with a high WC as a defining component of metabolic syndrome had a higher prevalence of silent CAD (30% vs. 20%; P=0.026).

CONCLUSION

A WC ≥94 cm in males is independently associated with an increased prevalence of silent CAD. In patients with metabolic syndrome, this prevalence is increased by the presence of high WC.

Maximal exercise electrocardiographic responses and coronary heart disease mortality among men with metabolic syndrome

OBJECTIVE

To examine the association between abnormal exercise electrocardiographic (E-ECG) test results and mortality (all-cause and that resulting from coronary heart disease [CHD] or cardiovascular disease [CVD]) in a large population of asymptomatic men with metabolic syndrome (MetS).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A total of 9191 men (mean age, 46.9 years) met the criteria of having MetS. All completed a maximal E-ECG treadmill test (May 14, 1979, through April 9, 2001) and were without a previous CVD event or diabetes at baseline. Main outcomes were all-cause mortality, mortality due to CHD, and mortality due to CVD. Cox regression analysis was used to quantify the mortality risk according to E-ECG responses.

RESULTS

During a follow-up of 14 years, 633 deaths (242 CVD and 150 CHD) were identified. Mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) across E-ECG responses were the following: for all-cause mortality: HR, 1.36; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.09-1.70 for equivocal responses and HR, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.12-1.77 for abnormal responses (P(trend)<.001); for mortality due to CVD: HR, 1.29; 95% CI, 0.88-1.88 for equivocal responses and HR, 2.04; 95% CI, 1.46-2.84 for abnormal responses (P(trend)<.001); and for mortality due to CHD: HR, 1.62; 95% CI, 1.02-2.56 for equivocal responses and HR, 2.45; 95% CI, 1.62-3.69 for abnormal responses (P(trend)<.001). A positive gradient for CHD, CVD, and all-cause mortality rates across E-ECG categories within 3, 4, or 5 MetS components was observed (P<.001 for all).

CONCLUSION

Among men with MetS, an abnormal E-ECG response was associated with higher risk of all-cause, CVD, and CHD mortality. These findings underscore the importance of E-ECG tests to identify men with MetS who are at risk of dying.

Threshold, incidence, and predictors of prognostically high-risk silent ischemia in asymptomatic patients without prior diagnosis of coronary artery disease

BACKGROUND

Little is known about incidence, threshold, and predictors of prognostically relevant silent ischemia (SI). The aim was to study these three aspects of silent coronary artery disease (CAD).

METHODS

In total, 3,664 consecutive asymptomatic patients without prior diagnosis of CAD undergoing myocardial perfusion SPECT (MPS) were evaluated and followed-up > or = 1 year for Events (HE): cardiac death or myocardial infarction. MPS was interpreted using a 20 segment model to define summed stress, rest, and difference scores (the extent of % myocardium ischemic was derived). Prognostic high-risk ischemia was defined as ischemia consistent with a HE rate > or = 3%.

RESULTS

Overall, > or = 7.5% myocardium ischemic was consistent with high risk. Twenty-one and six percent of patients had ischemia and high-risk ischemia, respectively. Patients with high-risk ischemia had a worse prognosis than patients with less SI, HE rate of 3.1 and 0.4%, respectively, (P = .0001). Sex, age, diabetes, hypertension, abnormal resting ECG, angina, peak heart rate, blood pressure during treadmill testing, ST-depression, and Duke treadmill score were independent predictors of relevant SI.

CONCLUSIONS

In total, > or = 7.5% myocardium ischemic revealed to be consistent with high risk. Six percent of patients had evidence of high-risk SI. Diagnostic scores are provided to most likely identify patients with high-risk SI.

Asymptomatic ST-segment depression during exercise testing and the risk of sudden cardiac death in middle-aged men: a population-based follow-up study

AIMS

Silent electrocardiographic ST change predicts future coronary events in patients with coronary heart disease (CHD), but the prognostic significance of asymptomatic ST-segment depression with respect to sudden cardiac death in subjects without apparent CHD is not well known.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We investigated the association between silent ST-segment depression during and after maximal symptom-limited exercise test and the risk of sudden cardiac death in a population-based sample of 1769 men without evident CHD. A total of 72 sudden cardiac death occurred during the median follow-up of 18 years. The risk of sudden cardiac death was increased among men with asymptomatic ST-segment depression during exercise [hazard ratio (HR) 2.1, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2-3.9] as well as among those with asymptomatic ST-segment depression during recovery period (HR 3.2, 95% CI 1.7-6.0). Asymptomatic ST-depression during exercise testing was a stronger predictor for the risk of sudden cardiac death especially among smokers as well as in hypercholesterolaemic and hypertensive men than in men without these risk factors.

CONCLUSION

Asymptomatic ST-segment depression was a very strong predictor of sudden cardiac death in men with any conventional risk factor but no previously diagnosed CHD, emphasizing the value of exercise testing to identify asymptomatic high-risk men who could benefit from preventive measures.

Diagnostic and prognostic value of ambulatory ECG (Holter) monitoring in patients with coronary heart disease: a review

Silent ischemia, the most common expression of atherosclerotic heart disease, affects approximately 30-50% of patients during their activities of daily living. The present review provides a comprehensive and practical summary of current knowledge on perioperative myocardial ischemia through MEDLINE searches up to June 2005, using keywords including "silent ischemia," "transient ischemia," and "Holter monitoring." Holter monitoring (i.e., continuous ambulatory ST-segment monitoring) is an effective tool for assessing the frequency and duration of silent transient myocardial ischemia, particularly in patients who are post-acute myocardial infarction (MI), those with acute coronary syndromes (ACS), and in patients in the acute post-operative period. Holter monitoring allows for further risk stratification of patients who have a positive exercise ECG by collecting long-term ECG data on ischemic and arrhythmic events while patients perform routine activities. Both the presence and increased duration of transient ischemia as detected by continuous ST-segment Holter monitoring are associated with increased rates of coronary events and mortality. Holter monitoring may aid in the identification of patients and subgroups of patients with ACS who may derive the greatest benefit from antiplatelet and antithrombotic therapy. Indeed, many ongoing and upcoming trials of pharmacotherapy include ischemia on Holter monitoring as an endpoint.

Pulse wave velocity is increased in patients with transient myocardial ischemia

OBJECTIVE

We have recently shown that mean pulse pressure is higher in patients with transient myocardial ischemia. Pulse pressure elevation might be an important consequence of increased arterial stiffness. The aim of this study was to prove if arterial stiffness is changed in patients with transient myocardial ischemia who bear a high cardiovascular risk. Additionally we investigated whether arterial stiffness or wave reflection is the best indicator for transient myocardial ischemia. Aortic pulse wave velocity (PWV) is a measure of arterial stiffness, and augmentation index (AIx) an indication of arterial wave reflection. Both are indicators for cardiovascular risk.

METHODS

PWV (carotid-femoral) and AIx (SphygmoCor) were assessed in 74 hypertensive patients. Transient myocardial ischemia was detected using an ST-triggered 24-h ambulatory blood pressure monitoring device.

RESULTS

ST-segment depressions were recorded in 30 of 74 patients. There were no significant differences with regard to age, mean arterial pressure, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure or heart rate. PWV was seen to be higher in patients with transient myocardial ischemia (10.6 versus 9.5 m/s, P = 0.036). There was no significant difference in AIx between the two groups. PWV (r = 0.36, P = 0.002) but not AIx correlated with pulse pressure.

CONCLUSIONS

PWV is higher in hypertensive individuals (age > 60 years) with transient myocardial ischemia, suggesting that PWV is an indicator of increased cardiovascular risk. Although AIx is known to be associated with several cardiovascular diseases, it was not seen to be associated with silent myocardial ischemia. Our results suggest that the clinical significance of parameters of arterial stiffness and arterial wave reflection change with age, with a higher clinical importance of PWV indicated in patients over the age of 60.

Identifying which patients with diabetes should be tested for the presence of coronary artery disease – The importance of baseline electrocardiogram and exercise testing

Numerous studies have reported that diabetic patients should not always be considered to be coronary artery disease (CAD)-equivalent as was previously suggested. Exercise testing is widely available at a relatively low cost, and even among patients in whom the diagnosis of CAD is highly probable on the basis of age, sex, description of chest pain and history of prior myocardial infarction, exercise testing is often a clinical requirement for risk or prognosis assessment to determine the need for possible coronary angiography or revascularization. Nevertheless, because of either the presence of atypical symptoms or the absence of symptoms often encountered, the screening approach may differ in patients with diabetes mellitus. Because CAD is the major cause of mortality in patients with diabetes, its early detection is important to improve medical interventions and outcomes. This is critical because the available evidence suggests that occult CAD is common among asymptomatic patients with diabetes. Therefore, noninvasive testing for asymptomatic CAD may be helpful for the identification of diabetic patients with severe coronary obstruction in whom revascularization therapy may be considered the first manifestation of silent CAD in patients with diabetes is a fatal cardiac event in approximately one-half of the patients. The present paper reviews some clinical markers that may be helpful to the clinician to increase the yield of finding significant occult CAD while screening patients with diabetes.

The artery size hypothesis: a macrovascular link between erectile dysfunction and coronary artery disease

Erectile dysfunction (ED) is defined as the inability to achieve or maintain an erection satisfactory for sexual performance. Evidence is accumulating to consider ED as a vascular disorder. Common risk factors for atherosclerosis are frequently found in association with ED, and ED is frequently reported in vascular syndromes, such as coronary artery disease (CAD), hypertension, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral arterial disease, and diabetes mellitus. Finally, similar early impairment of endothelium-dependent vasodilatation and late obstructive vascular changes has been reported in both ED and other vascular syndromes. Recently, we proposed a pathophysiologic mechanism to explain the link between ED and CAD called the artery size hypothesis. Given the systemic nature of atherosclerosis, all major vascular beds should be affected to the same extent. However, symptoms rarely become evident at the same time. This difference in rate of occurrence of different symptoms is proposed to be caused by the different size of the arteries supplying different vascular beds that allow a larger vessel to better tolerate the same amount of plaque compared with a smaller one. According to this hypothesis, because penile arteries are smaller in diameter than coronary arteries, patients with ED will seldom have concomitant symptoms of CAD, whereas patients with CAD will frequently complain of ED. Available clinical evidence appears to support this hypothesis.

Cost-effectiveness of screening for coronary artery disease in asymptomatic patients with Type 2 diabetes and additional atherogenic risk factors

OBJECTIVE

Screening for coronary artery disease (CAD) in asymptomatic diabetic patients with two additional atherogenic risk factors has been recommended by the American College of Cardiology/American Diabetes Association, but its cost-effectiveness is yet to be determined. The present study aims to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of screening and determine acceptable strategies.

DESIGN

Cost-effectiveness analysis using a Markov model was performed from a societal perspective to measure the clinical benefit and economic consequences of CAD screening in asymptomatic men with diabetes and two additional atherogenic risk factors. We evaluated cohorts of patients stratified by different age groups, and 10 possible combination pairs of atherogenic risks. Incremental cost-effectiveness of no screening, exercise electrocardiography, exercise echocardiography, or exercise single-photon emission-tomography (SPECT) was calculated. Input data were obtained from the published literature. Outcomes were expressed as U.S. dollars per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY).

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Compared with no screening, incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of exercise electrocardiography was $41,600/QALY in 60-year-old asymptomatic diabetic men with hypertension and smoking, but was weakly dominated by exercise echocardiography. Exercise echocardiography was most cost-effective, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $40,800/QALY. Exercise SPECT was dominated by other strategies. Sensitivity analyses found that results varied depending on age, combination of additional atherogenic risk factors, and diagnostic test performance.

CONCLUSIONS

Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of CAD screening in asymptomatic patients with diabetes and two or more additional atherogenic risk factors is shown to be acceptable from a societal perspective. Exercise echocardiography was the most cost-effective strategy, followed by exercise electrocardiography.

Common grounds for erectile dysfunction and coronary artery disease

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Evidence is accumulating to consider erectile dysfunction as a vascular problem. This review focuses on background, pathophysiological mechanisms and clinical evidence of the link between erectile dysfunction and coronary artery disease.

RECENT FINDINGS

The link between erectile dysfunction and coronary artery disease is suggested by the following. (1) Common risk factors for atherosclerosis are frequently found in erectile dysfunction. (2) Erectile dysfunction is frequently found in vascular syndromes such as coronary artery disease, hypertension, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral arterial disease and diabetes. (3) A similar pathogenic involvement of the NO pathway leading to impairment of endothelium-dependent vasodilatation and late structural vascular abnormalities is shared by erectile dysfunction and vascular disorders. Given this background, the "artery-size hypothesis" is a recently proposed pathophysiological mechanism to explain the link between sexual dysfunction and myocardial ischemia.

SUMMARY

Erectile dysfunction and coronary artery disease appear to be linked tightly each other.

Erectile dysfunction prevalence, time of onset and association with risk factors in 300 consecutive patients with acute chest pain and angiographically documented coronary artery disease

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to assess erectile dysfunction prevalence, time of onset and association with risk factors in patients with acute chest pain and angiographically documented coronary artery disease.

METHODS

300 consecutive patients with acute chest pain and angiographically documented coronary artery disease were assessed using a semi-structured interview investigating their medical and sexual histories, the International Index of Erectile Function and other instruments.

RESULTS

Patient mean age was 62.5+/-8 years (range 33-86 years). Mean duration of symptoms or signs of myocardial ischaemia prior to enrollment in the study was 49 months (range 1-200). Coronary angiography showed 1-, 2- and 3-vessel disease in 98 (32.6%), 88 (29.3%) and 114 (38%) patients, respectively. The prevalence of ED among all patients was 49% (147/300). Erectile dysfunction was scored as mild, mild to moderate, moderate and severe in 21 (14%), 31 (21%), 20 (14%), and 75 (51%) of patients, respectively. There was no significant difference between patients with ED (n=147) or without ED (n=153) as far as clinical and angiographic characteristics were concerned. In the 147 patients with co-existing ED and CAD, ED symptoms were reported as having become clinically evident prior to CAD symptoms by 99/147 (67%) patients. The mean time interval between the onset of ED and CAD was 38.8 months (range 1-168). There was no significant difference in terms of risk factor distribution and clinical and angiographic characteristics between patients with the onset of ED before vs. after CAD diagnosis. Interestingly, all patients with type I diabetes and ED actually developed sexual dysfunction before CAD onset (p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study suggests that a significant proportion of patients with angiographically documented coronary artery disease have erectile dysfunction and that this latter condition may become evident prior to angina symptoms in almost 70% of cases. Future studies including a control group of patients with coronary artery disease and normal erectile function are required in order to verify whether erectile dysfunction may be considered a real predictor of ischemic heart disease.

Association of exercise-induced, silent ST-segment depression with the risk of stroke and cardiovascular diseases in men

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

There are few if any data on the prognostic importance of silent myocardial ischemia during exercise with regard to the risk of stroke and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) among asymptomatic men. In this prospective study, we investigated the relation of silent myocardial ischemia and the risk of stroke and CVD death in men with and without conventional risk factors.

METHODS

The study sample included 1726 middle-aged men with no history of stroke, coronary heart disease, or atrial fibrillation at baseline. Silent myocardial ischemia was defined as a horizontal or downsloping ST-segment depression (>or=1 mm) during exercise electrocardiography. A total of 86 CVD-related deaths and 78 strokes occurred during an average follow-up of 10 years.

RESULTS

Men with silent ischemia during exercise had a 3.5-fold increased risk of CVD death and a 2.2-fold increased risk of stroke compared with men without silent ischemia, after adjusting for conventional risk factors. Silent ischemia during exercise was associated with a 3.8-fold (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.5 to 9.5) increased risk for CVD in smokers, a 3.9-fold (95% CI, 2.1 to 7.3) increased risk in hypercholesterolemic subjects, a 3.6-fold (95% CI, 1.9 to 6.8) increased risk in the hypertensives, and 3.8-fold (95% CI, 2.0 to 7.1) increased risk in overweight men. The respective relative risks for stroke were 3.8 (95% CI, 1.1 to 12.5), 3.5 (95% CI, 1.7 to 7.4), 3.4 (95% CI, 1.6 to 7.1), and 2.9 (95% CI, 1.4 to 6.1).

CONCLUSIONS

Exercise-induced silent myocardial ischemia is an important indicator of increased risk of stroke and CVD in men with other risk factors, such as smoking, hypercholesterolemia, hypertension, and being overweight.

Hormone replacement therapy and risk of cardiovascular disease: implications of the results of the Women's Health Initiative

The higher rates of coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, and venous thrombosis among women taking estrogen and progesterone (E+P) compared with placebo in the Women's Health Initiative clinical trial have important implications for women's health. Previous studies in both men and women have shown that estrogen therapy lowers low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and raises high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. The changes in these lipoproteins should be associated with at least a 30% decline in CHD risk. Estrogens increased very-low-density lipoprotein (VLDL) triglyceride levels and C-reactive protein. There is evidence that estrogens increase thrombin generation and fibrinolysis. The increase in VLDL triglycerides may enhance thrombotic risk as well as higher levels of atherogenic lipoproteins, such as dense low-density lipoprotein. Genetic variations in estrogen receptors and thrombosis or fibrinolysis may also be important in risks associated with E+P therapy. The increased risk of CHD and stroke with E+P therapy may be attributable to rise in VLDL triglycerides and thrombosis.

Role of nondiagnostic exercise-induced ST-segment abnormalities in predicting future coronary events in asymptomatic volunteers

BACKGROUND

Whether exercise-induced ST-segment depression <1 mm is an independent predictor of future coronary events (CEs) in asymptomatic subjects is unknown.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We performed maximal treadmill exercise tests on 1083 volunteers from the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging who were free from clinical coronary heart disease. Exercise ST-segment changes were stratified by Minnesota code criteria: 11:1 (n=213), flat or downsloping ST depression > or =1 mm; 11:2 (n=66), flat or downsloping ST depression > or =0.5 mm and <1 mm; 11:4 (n=124), ST-J depression > or =1 mm with slowly rising ST segments; and 11:5 (n=69), minor ST depression (<0.5 mm) before exercise that worsened to flat or downsloping ST depression > or =1 mm during or after exercise. Risk of CE was compared with subjects with normal exercise ECG (n=611). Over a mean follow-up of 7.9 years, 76 subjects developed CEs (angina pectoris, myocardial infarction, or coronary death). On univariate analysis, age (relative risk [RR]=1.07/year, P<0.0001), male sex (RR=1.98, P=0.009), plasma cholesterol (RR=1.02/mg per dL, P<0.0001), hypertension (RR=2.23, P=0.002), duration of exercise (RR=0.71/min, P=0.0001), and systolic blood pressure at peak effort (RR=1.02/mm Hg, P=0.002) were associated with CE. By Cox proportional hazards analysis, age (RR=1.06/year, P<0.0001), male sex (RR=2.76, P=0.0002), plasma cholesterol (RR=1.02 per 1 mg/dL, P<0.0001), duration of exercise (RR=0.87/min, P=0.004), and ST-segment changes coded as either 11:1 (RR=2.70, P=0.0005) or 11:5 (RR=2.73, P=0.04) were independent predictors of CE.

CONCLUSIONS

Both a classic ischemic ST-segment exercise response and intensification of minor preexercise ST-segment depression to levels > or =1 mm independently predicted future CE in this asymptomatic population. Neither slowly rising ST depression nor horizontal ST depression <1 mm was prognostic.

Potential use of Ca++ scanning to determine the need for and intensity of lipid-lowering therapy in asymptomatic adults

Deficiencies in traditional cardiovascular risk-factor assessment in asymptomatic individuals have led to the use of electron beam computed tomography (CT) scanning as a screening test for coronary artery disease. This novel approach is based on a secure pathologic foundation: the risk of coronary disease events is proportional to the severity and extent of underlying coronary atherosclerosis, and in middle-aged and elderly adults, calcified plaque is closely related to total plaque. Electron beam CT measures coronary calcium quickly, easily, accurately, and with a high degree of reproducibility. Coronary calcium is three to nine times higher in persons with fatal or nonfatal myocardial infarction than in age-matched controls, and four observational outcomes studies have demonstrated that the electron beam CT-derived coronary calcium score predicts fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction. In symptomatic persons undergoing cardiac catheterization, electron beam CT is more closely associated with the severity of coronary atherosclerosis than are standard coronary risk factors. Preliminary evidence in asymptomatic persons indicates that the coronary calcium score also predicts coronary disease events more accurately than standard risk factors.

Exercise-induced silent myocardial ischemia and coronary morbidity and mortality in middle-aged men

OBJECTIVES

We investigated the prognostic significance of exercise-induced silent myocardial ischemia in both high and low risk men with no prior coronary heart disease (CHD).

BACKGROUND

Silent ischemia predicts future coronary events in patients with CHD, but there is little evidence of its prognostic significance in subjects free of CHD.

METHODS

We investigated the association of silent ischemia, as defined by ST depression during and after maximal symptom-limited exercise test, with coronary risk in a population-based sample of men with no prior CHD followed for 10 years on average.

RESULTS

Silent ischemia during exercise was associated with a 5.9-fold (95% CI 2.3 to 11.8) CHD mortality in smokers, 3.8-fold (95% CI 1.9 to 7.9) in hypercholesterolemic men and 4.7-fold (95% CI 2.4 to 9.1) in hypertensive men adjusting for other risk factors. The respective relative risks (RRs) of any acute coronary event were 3.0 (95% CI 1.7 to 5.1), 1.9 (95% CI 1.2 to 3.1) and 2.2 (95% CI 1.4 to 3.5). These associations were weaker in men without these risk factors. Furthermore, silent ischemia after exercise was a stronger predictor for the risk of acute coronary events and CHD death in smokers and in hypercholesterolemic and hypertensive men than in men without risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Exercise-induced silent myocardial ischemia was a strong predictor of CHD in men with any conventional risk factor, emphasizing the importance of exercise testing to identify asymptomatic high risk men who could benefit from risk reduction and preventive measures.

Prediction of coronary events with electron beam computed tomography

OBJECTIVES

We sought to determine the prognostic accuracy of electron beam computed tomographic (EBCT) scanning of the coronary arteries at three to four years.

BACKGROUND

Coronary artery calcium scores determined by EBCT correlate with the severity of coronary artery disease. However, previous reports of the prognostic accuracy of EBCT scanning for coronary events in asymptomatic individuals are conflicting.

METHODS

Asymptomatic men and women undergoing coronary EBCT completed initial and follow-up evaluations, which included past medical history, the Rose angina questionnaire and interim cardiovascular events. Reported coronary events (death, nonfatal myocardial infarction [MI] and revascularization procedures) were confirmed without knowledge of the scan results.

RESULTS

Information was obtained in 1,172 (99.6%) of 1,177 eligible subjects (baseline age 53 +/- 11 years, 71% men). During an average follow-up of 3.6 years, 39 subjects sustained coronary events: three coronary deaths, 15 nonfatal MIs and 21 coronary artery revascularization procedures. The mean coronary artery calcium score was 764 +/- 935 among subjects with events as compared with 135 +/- 432 among those without events (p < 0.0001). For the prediction of all coronary events and of nonfatal MIs and deaths, the areas under the receiver-operator characteristics curve were 0.84 and 0.86, respectively, and a coronary calcium score > or =160 was associated with odds ratios of 15.8 and 22.2, respectively. The odds ratios for all events remained high (14.3 to 20.2) after adjustment for self-reported cardiovascular risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS

In asymptomatic adults, EBCT of the coronary arteries predicts coronary death and nonfatal MI and the need for revascularization procedures.

Identification of patients at risk by graded exercise testing in an emergency department chest pain center

The study applied a retrospective follow-up design to determine the prognostic effect of graded exercise testing (GXT) in patients with low- to moderate-risk chest pain evaluated in an emergency department 9-hour protocol chest pain center (CPC) from January 1, 1993 to August 1, 1996. The cohort of 1,209 patients were followed to the date of death or first adverse cardiac event up to 1 year after CPC admission. Cardiac events were defined as coronary artery bypass graft, percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty, cardiogenic shock, cardiac-related death, congestive heart failure admission, ventricular tachycardia/ventricular fibrillation arrest, and myocardial infarction. Patients with acute ST-segment elevation or depression of >1 mm, positive enzyme (creatine kinase myocardial band) testing, or unstable angina during their CPC evaluation were admitted without GXT testing. Statistical analysis included chi-square test for complication rates and Cox proportional-hazards modeling. Nine hundred fifty-eight of 1,209 patients underwent GXT testing. Patients with positive, inconclusive, and normal GXTs had complication rates of 36.8% (7 of 19), 3.4% (9 of 267), and 1.1% (5 of 456), respectively. After adjusting for age, sex, and race, the relative risk of complication was 38.9 (95% confidence interval 11.7 to 129.6) with a positive GXT, and 3.6 (95% confidence interval 1.2 to 10.7) with an inconclusive GXT compared with a normal GXT. The GXT is a good prognostic indicator of adverse cardiac events in low- to moderate-risk chest pain in patients evaluated in an emergency department CPC.

Evaluating the cardiovascular tolerance for sex

The cardiovascular tolerance for sex has largely been equated with physical activity, yet sexual arousal plays a major role. Exercise testing is useful, primarily for evaluating functional capacity, which reflects the extent of physical conditioning and the limitation imposed by symptoms of angina, dyspnea, and fatigue. Exercise testing, which is useful for evaluating functional capacity in sedentary patients, is generally unnecessary in physically active patients. Exercise testing, with or without radionuclide imaging, is of limited value in assessing the risk of future cardiovascular events-a limitation shared by all diagnostic tests, including coronary angiography. The absolute risks of coition-induced myocardial infarction (MI) or death are extremely low-on the order of 2 chances per million per hour in healthy middle-aged individuals or 20 chances per million per hour in "high-risk" patients with ischemic heart disease. This is equivalent to an annual risk of 1. 01% and 1.2%, respectively. Sex is a comparatively weak precipitant of acute coronary events, accounting for only 0.5-1.0% of all such events. The cardiovascular tolerance for sex in an individual can be characterized by the "functional reserve," that is, the extent to which the cardiovascular response to sex-measured by the heart rate, blood pressure, and oxygen consumption-encroaches on the peak response to exercise. Cardiovascular symptoms during sex rarely occur in patients who do not experience similar symptoms during exercise testing at a level equivalent to 6 METS.

Maximal exercise test as a predictor of risk for mortality from coronary heart disease in asymptomatic men

Exercise testing in asymptomatic persons has been criticized for failing to accurately predict those at risk for coronary heart disease (CHD). Previous studies on asymptomatic subjects, however, may not have been large enough or long enough to provide reliable outcome measures. This study examines the ability of a maximal exercise test to predict death from CHD and death from any cause in a population of asymptomatic men. This is a prospective longitudinal study performed between 1970 and 1989, with an average follow-up of 8.4 years. The subjects are 25,927 healthy men, 20 to 82 years of age at baseline (mean 42.9 years) who were free of cardiovascular disease and who were evaluated in a preventive medicine clinic. The main outcome measures are CHD mortality and all-cause mortality. During follow-up there were 612 deaths from all causes and 158 deaths from CHD. The sensitivity of an abnormal exercise test to predict coronary death was 61%. The age-adjusted relative risk of an abnormal exercise test for CHD death was 21 (6.9 to 63.3) in those with no risk factors, 27 (10.7 to 68.8) in those with 1 risk factor, 54 (21.5 to 133.7) in those with 2 risk factors, and 80 (30.0 to 212. 5) in those with >/=3 factors. A maximal exercise test performed in asymptomatic men free of cardiovascular disease does appear to be a worthwhile tool in predicting future risk of CHD death. An abnormal exercise test is a more powerful predictor of risk in those with than without conventional risk factors.

Severity of coronary artery calcification by electron beam computed tomography predicts silent myocardial ischemia

BACKGROUND

Detection of subclinical coronary artery disease (CAD) before the development of life-threatening cardiac complications has great potential clinical relevance. Electron beam computed tomography (EBCT) is currently the only noninvasive test that can detect CAD in all stages of its development and thus has the potential to be an excellent screening technique for identifying asymptomatic subjects with underlying myocardial ischemia.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Over 2.5 years, we prospectively studied 3895 generally asymptomatic subjects with EBCT, 411 of whom had stress myocardial perfusion tomography (SPECT) within a close (median, 17 days) time period. SPECT and exercise treadmill results were compared with the coronary artery calcium score (CACS) as assessed by EBCT. The total CACS identified a population at high risk for having myocardial ischemia by SPECT although only a minority of subjects (22%) with an abnormal EBCT had an abnormal SPECT. No subject with CACS <10 had an abnormal SPECT compared with 2.6% of those with scores from 11 to 100, 11.3% of those with scores from 101 to 399, and 46% of those with scores >/=400 (P<0.0001). CACS predicted an abnormal SPECT regardless of subject age or sex.

CONCLUSIONS

CACS identifies a high-risk group of asymptomatic subjects who have clinically important silent myocardial ischemia. Our results support the role of EBCT as the initial screening tool for identifying individuals at various stages of CAD development for whom therapeutic decision making may differ considerably.

Usefulness in predicting coronary artery disease by ultrasonic evaluation of the carotid arteries in asymptomatic hypercholesterolemic patients with positive exercise stress tests

A positive exercise electrocardiogram (ECG) is not infrequent occurrence in asymptomatic hypercholesterolemic patients, but the number of false-positive tests may be relatively high (50%). Therefore, the ability of a positive stress ECG to predict coronary artery lesions is low even in populations with > or =1 cardiovascular risk factors. To increase the diagnostic value of exercise tests for screening asymptomatic individuals, we analyzed whether combined clinical parameters with carotid echography would accurately predict coronary atherosclerotic lesions by coronary angiography in asymptomatic hypercholesterolemic patients with a positive exercise ECG. Seventy-six asymptomatic patients (between 35 and 65 years of age) with hypercholesterolemia (total plasma cholesterol >6.5 mmol/L or 250 mg/dl) and a positive stress ECG were referred for carotid B-mode echography and coronary angiography. Carotid echography data were divided into 2 categories: (1) absence of any atherosclerotic plaque, or (2) presence of > or =1 arterial plaques. Coronary stenosis assessed by coronary angiography was considered to correspond to a > or =50% reduction of coronary lumen diameter. Forty-three patients (57%) displayed coronary lesions; most (38; 88%) had carotid plaque. Multivariate analysis showed that the presence of carotid plaque was significantly associated with coronary stenosis (odds ratio 15.2; confidence interval 5.0 to 54.5). In subgroups characterized by high frequency of false-positive exercise electrocardiographic tests (women and patients with a 10-year predicted risk of coronary artery disease [CAD] <15%), none of the patients without carotid plaque exhibited coronary lesions. Echographic evaluation of carotid plaque (plaque vs no plaque) significantly improved the diagnostic specificity of exercise electrocardiography. We conclude that the combination of clinical, electrical, and echographic data facilitates cost-effective noninvasive detection of CAD in asymptomatic hypercholesterolemic patients.