Climate Change Impacts on Community Resilience

Integrating simulation models and statistical models using causal modelling principles to predict aquatic macroinvertebrate responses to climate change

Climate change is projected to threaten ecological communities through changes in temperature, rainfall, runoff patterns, and mediated changes in other environmental variables. Their combined effects are difficult to comprehend without the mathematical machinery of causal modelling. Using piecewise structural equation modelling, we aim to predict the responses of aquatic macroinvertebrate total abundance and richness to disturbances generated by climate change. Our approach involves integrating an existing hydroclimate-salinity model for the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, into our recently developed statistical models for macroinvertebrates using long-term monitoring data on macroinvertebrates, water quality, climate, and hydrology, spanning 2,300 km of the Murray River. Our exercise demonstrates the potential of causal modelling for integrating data and models from different sources. As such, optimal use of valuable existing data and merits of previously developed models in the field can be made for exploring the effects of future climate change and management interventions.

Effects of intermittent flow on biofilms are driven by stream characteristics rather than history of intermittency

Intermittent streams are found all over the world, however most studies focus on intermittency in hot, arid climates. As flow intermittency is expected to increase with climate change, it is important to understand how stream biofilms in temperate regions respond to these changing conditions. In this study, 20 different streams from around Austria were sampled under flowing and non-flowing conditions to evaluate the effect of intermittency on temperate stream biofilms. These streams encompassed two distinct stream types: fine-grained with high agricultural land use and coarse sediments from relatively pristine areas. Half of these streams were historically intermittent and half historically perennial. Samples were taken from all streams during the spring and fall, when the intermittent streams were flowing and dry, respectively. Subsets of the sediments were subjected to controlled drying to evaluate the effects of history of intermittency on the biofilms. Samples were analyzed for respiration, extracellular enzyme activities, and extracellular polysaccharides in the wet and dry sediments from the field, as well as the lab-dried sediments. This study found that lab-dried perennial sediments showed similar responses to the intermittent sediments, indicating that history of intermittency does not affect biofilm response to drought. This study also found that the effects of grain size, seasonal growth, and nutrient levels have a larger impact on the biofilms than moisture content and history of intermittency.

Resilience of aquatic systems: Review and management implications

Our understanding of how ecosystems function has changed from an equilibria-based view to one that recognizes the dynamic, fluctuating, nonlinear nature of aquatic systems. This current understanding requires that we manage systems for resilience. In this review, we examine how resilience has been defined, measured and applied in aquatic systems, and more broadly, in the socioecological systems in which they are embedded. Our review reveals the importance of managing stressors adversely impacting aquatic system resilience, as well as understanding the environmental and climatic cycles and changes impacting aquatic resources. Aquatic resilience may be enhanced by maintaining and enhancing habitat connectivity as well as functional redundancy and physical and biological diversity. Resilience in aquatic socioecological system may be enhanced by understanding and fostering linkages between the social and ecological subsystems, promoting equity among stakeholders, and understanding how the system is impacted by factors within and outside the area of immediate interest. Management for resilience requires implementation of adaptive and preferably collaborative management. Implementation of adaptive management for resilience will require an effective monitoring framework to detect key changes in the coupled socioecological system. Research is needed to (1) develop sensitive indicators and monitoring designs, (2) disentangle complex multi-scalar interactions and feedbacks, and (3) generalize lessons learned across aquatic ecosystems and apply them in new contexts.

Distinct responses from bacterial, archaeal and fungal streambed communities to severe hydrological disturbances

Stream microbes that occur in the Mediterranean Basin have been shown to possess heightened sensitivity to intensified water stress attributed to climate change. Here, we investigate the effects of long-term drought (150 days), storms and rewetting (7 days) on the diversity and composition of archaea, bacteria and fungi inhabiting intermittent streambed sediment (surface and hyporheic) and buried leaves. Hydrological alterations modified the archaeal community composition more than the bacterial community composition, whereas fungi were the least affected. Throughout the experiment, archaeal communities colonizing sediments showed greater phylogenetic distances compared to those of bacteria and fungi, suggesting considerable adaptation to severe hydrological disturbances. The increase in the class abundances, such as those of Thermoplasmata within archaea and of Actinobacteria and Bacilli within bacteria, revealed signs of transitioning to a drought-favoured and soil-like community composition. Strikingly, we found that in comparison to the drying phase, water return (as sporadic storms and rewetting) led to larger shifts in the surface microbial community composition and diversity. In addition, microhabitat characteristics, such as the greater capacity of the hyporheic zone to maintain/conserve moisture, tended to modulate the ability of certain microbes (e.g., bacteria) to cope with severe hydrological disturbances.

Quantitative Assessment and Diagnosis for Regional Agricultural Drought Resilience Based on Set Pair Analysis and Connection Entropy

Assessment and diagnosis of regional agricultural drought resilience (RADR) is an important groundwork to identify the shortcomings of regional agriculture to resist drought disasters accurately. In order to quantitatively assess the capacity of regional agriculture system to reduce losses from drought disasters under complex conditions and to identify vulnerability indexes, an assessment and diagnosis model for RADR was established. Firstly, this model used the improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to determine the index weights, then proposed an assessment method based on connection number and an improved connection entropy. Furthermore, the set pair potential based on subtraction was used to diagnose the vulnerability indexes. In addition, a practical application had been carried out in the region of the Huaibei Plain in Anhui Province. The evaluation results showed that the RADR in this area from 2005 to 2014 as a whole was in a relatively weak situation. However, the average grade values had decreased from 3.144 to 2.790 during these 10 years and the RADR had an enhanced tendency. Moreover, the possibility of RADR enhancement for six cities in this region decreased from east to west, and the drought emergency condition was the weak link of the RADR in the Huaibei Plain.

A Systematic Disturbance Analysis Method for Resilience Evaluation: A Case Study in Material Handling Systems

With the development of intelligent manufacturing technology, the material handling system (MHS) faces larger resilience challenges that threaten the sustainability of the system. To evaluate system resilience, the disturbance that the system may experience and the system response need to be identified in advance. This paper proposes a systematic and innovative approach to performing resilience-related disturbance analysis, i.e., disturbance mode and effects analysis (DMEA). Using this method, the possible disturbance modes, their occurrence probabilities, and the quantitative effects on system performance can be collected in a bottom-up process, and the information can be applied to further resilience quantification. Moreover, a quantitative system resilience evaluation framework for the MHS based on DMEA and the Monte Carlo method is presented. Production is defined as the key performance index of the system and is monitored to reflect the resilience behavior of the system after the disturbance occurs. The resilience of a tire tread handing system is quantified in our case study, and the results show the effectiveness of our DMEA-based resilience evaluation method. We also find that a reasonable system configuration and maintenance strategy can effectively improve system resilience, and a trade-off can be made between resilience and cost.

Drought alters the trophic role of an opportunistic generalist in an aquatic ecosystem

Abiotic change can alter species interactions by modifying species' trophic roles, but this has not been well studied. Until now, bromeliad-dwelling tipulid larvae were thought to positively affect other macroinvertebrates via a facilitative processing chain. However, under drought, we found the opposite. We performed two microcosm experiments in which we factorially manipulated water level and predation by tipulids, and measured the effects on mosquito and chironomid larvae. The experiments differed in whether high water was contrasted with low or no water, allowing us to distinguish between the effects of desiccation stress (no water) and increased encounter rates due to compression of habitat or reductions in prey mobility (low and no water). We also included a caged tipulid treatment to measure any non-consumptive effects. As well as directly reducing prey survival, reductions in water level indirectly decreased chironomid and mosquito survival by altering the trophic role of tipulids. Our results suggest that increased encounter rates with prey led to tipulids becoming predatory under simulated drought, as tipulids consumed prey under both low and no water. When water level was high, tipulids exerted negative non-consumptive effects on prey survival. Because opportunistic predators are common throughout aquatic ecosystems, the effects of drought on the trophic roles of species may be widespread. Such restructuring of food webs should be considered when attempting to predict the ecological effects of environmental change.

Extreme drought pushes stream invertebrate communities over functional thresholds

Functional traits are increasingly being used to predict extinction risks and range shifts under long-term climate change scenarios, but have rarely been used to study vulnerability to extreme climatic events, such as supraseasonal droughts. In streams, drought intensification can cross thresholds of habitat loss, where marginal changes in environmental conditions trigger disproportionate biotic responses. However, these thresholds have been studied only from a structural perspective, and the existence of functional nonlinearity remains unknown. We explored trends in invertebrate community functional traits along a gradient of drought intensity, simulated over 18 months, using mesocosms analogous to lowland headwater streams. We modelled the responses of 16 traits based on a priori predictions of trait filtering by drought, and also examined the responses of trait profile groups (TPGs) identified via hierarchical cluster analysis. As responses to drought intensification were both linear and nonlinear, generalized additive models (GAMs) were chosen to model response curves, with the slopes of fitted splines used to detect functional thresholds during drought. Drought triggered significant responses in 12 (75%) of the a priori-selected traits. Behavioural traits describing movement (dispersal, locomotion) and diet were sensitive to moderate-intensity drought, as channels fragmented into isolated pools. By comparison, morphological and physiological traits showed little response until surface water was lost, at which point we observed sudden shifts in body size, respiration mode and thermal tolerance. Responses varied widely among TPGs, ranging from population collapses of non-aerial dispersers as channels fragmented to irruptions of small, eurythermic dietary generalists upon extreme dewatering. Our study demonstrates for the first time that relatively small changes in drought intensity can trigger disproportionately large functional shifts in stream communities, suggesting that traits-based approaches could be particularly useful for diagnosing catastrophic ecological responses to global change.

Effects of an atypical drought on the benthic macroinvertebrate community in a tropical reservoir

Abstract Atypical drought events have increasingly occurred in Brazil over the last years due to global climate changes. However, their consequences on aquatic biota in reservoirs are poorly known. We tested the hypothesis that macroinvertebrate communities are negatively affected by atypical drought events, given the sensitivity of many taxa to environmental changes. We predicted that: (a) there would be changes in limnological and sediment parameters between a regular year and an atypical year, (b) abundance and richness of the genera of Chironomidae and of exotic species would be higher due to the enhanced ability of these organisms to adapt to changes in the physical environment, and (c) community structure metrics (i. richness; ii. % richness; iii. abundance; iv. % abundance) would be affected by disturbance indices (i. Buffer Disturbance Index-BDI; ii. Local Disturbance Index-LDI; iii. Integrated Disturbance Index-IDI) in both years. The study was carried out in the reservoir of the Nova Ponte Hydroelectric Power Plant, state of Minas Gerais, comparing two sampling periods: a regular climatological year (2010) and an atypical drought year (2014). A total of 40 sampling sites were defined along the shore of the reservoir, and types of land use in the surrounding area of each site were measured, as well as physical habitat conditions, sediments, and benthic macroinvertebrate communities. Sampling was performed at these sites in the end of the rainy season in both years. The intensity of anthropogenic modifications was assessed at local scale and in the areas (buffers) surrounding the sampling sites using quantitative disturbance indices. There were striking differences in limnological parameters and sediment characteristics between sampling periods. Taxonomic richness was significantly lower in the drought year. As opposed to our predictions, richness and abundance of Chironomidae and exotic species did not increase with the atypical drought event. Besides, most community structure metrics showed a significant relationship with disturbance indices only during the regular climatological year, thus indicating that the large-scale effects of water stress may override the conditions of local habitats and the surrounding landscape. Therefore, in addition to a correct political-environmental management of water resources at local-scale, which includes maintaining the water quality and the riparian and landscape integrity, addressing large-scale climate issues is required for the maintenance of the ecological integrity of tropical reservoirs.

Impacts of future climate and land cover changes on threatened mammals in the semi-arid Chinese Altai Mountains

Dryland biodiversity plays important roles in the fight against desertification and poverty, but is highly vulnerable to the impacts of environmental change. However, little research has been conducted on dual pressure from climate and land cover changes on biodiversity in arid and semi-arid environments. Concequntly, it is crutial to understand the potential impacts of future climate and land cover changes on dryland biodiversity. Here, using the Chinese Altai Mountains as a case study area, we predicted the future spatial distributions and local assemblages of nine threatened mammal species under projected climate and land cover change scenarios for the period 2010-2050. The results show that remarkable declines in mammal species richness as well as high rates of species turnover are seen to occur across large areas in the Chinese Altai Mountains, highlighting an urgent need for developing protection strategies for areas outside of current nature reserve network. The selected mammals are predicted to lose more than 50% of their current ranges on average, which is much higher than species' range gains (around 15%) under future climate and land cover changes. Most of the species are predicted to contract their ranges while moving eastwards and to higher altitudes, raising the need for establishing cross-border migration pathways for species. Furthermore, the inclusion of land cover changes had notable effects on projected range shifts of individual species under climate changes, demonstrating that land cover changes should be incorporated into the assessment of future climate impacts to facilitate biodiversity conservation in arid and semi-arid environments.

Water abstraction in small lowland streams: Unforeseen hypoxia and anoxia effects

Flow reduction generated by water abstraction can alter abiotic and biotic properties of stream ecosystems. We hypothesized that reducing stream flow will reduce oxygen levels affecting sensitive invertebrates. We experimentally suppressed flow with longitudinal barriers in two lowland streams of mesotrophic and eutrophic status In each stream we fixed an upstream free flowing control and two downstream disturbed stretches without flow: an initial stagnation stretch and a final drought stretch separated from the stagnation by sand bags to force a greater lowering of the water level. Invertebrates were sampled in control and disturbed stretches before and after the experimental setup for 10weeks, and temperature and oxygen were recorded with data loggers. Flow reduction caused a significant decrease in oxygen, resulting in hypoxia (<4mg O2/L) in the stagnation stretches and anoxia (0mg O2/L) in the drought stretches mainly at night, without influencing water temperature. Invertebrate responded with differential sensitivity to flow and oxygen reduction, some indicator taxa declined at 7.3mg O2/L, others at 6.3mg O2/L, while at 5.3mg O2/L many taxa were severely reduced. Flow reduction generated oxygen depletion, reducing rheophilous and oxygen dependent taxa, while favouring tolerant limnophilous taxa with atmospheric respiration. Passive filterers and scrapers were significantly reduced. Our results indicate that flow reduction can cause hypoxia and anoxia in lowland streams and is an unforeseen effect not addressed in the assessment of flow reduction impacts to streams. Further research is required to evaluate if spatially extensive flow reductions and hypoxia result in long-term impairment of stream biodiversity and function.

Patch-Burn Grazing Effects on the Ecological Integrity of Tallgrass Prairie Streams

Conversion to agriculture, habitat fragmentation, and the loss of native grazers have made tallgrass prairie one of the most endangered ecosystems. One management option for the remaining prairie parcels, patch-burn grazing (PBG), applies a controlled burn to a portion of the prairie to attract cattle, creating a mosaic of more- and less-grazed patches. Although beneficial to cattle and grassland birds, the potential impacts of PBG on streams have not been studied, and a holistic approach is needed to ensure against adverse effects. We used a Before-After-Control-Impact design to assess potential impacts of PBG with and without riparian protection on tallgrass prairie headwater streams. We sampled stream macroinvertebrates and benthic organic matter 2 yr before and 2 yr during PBG treatments on two grazed watersheds with riparian fencing (fenced), two unfenced grazed watersheds (unfenced), and two ungrazed (control) watersheds. Very fine benthic organic matter increased significantly (51%) in unfenced streams compared with controls ( < 0.007), and fine particulate organic matter (<1 mm and >250 µm) increased 3-fold in the unfenced streams compared with controls ( = 0.008). The contribution of fine inorganic sediments to total substrata increased 28% in unfenced streams during PBG, which was significantly different from controls ( = 0.03). Additionally, the abundance of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera taxa decreased from 7635 to 687 individuals m in unfenced streams, which was significantly lower than in control streams ( = 0.008). Our results indicate that PBG adversely influences prairie streams through sediment inputs and reductions in sensitive invertebrate taxa, but riparian fencing can alleviate these impacts.

Assessing and managing freshwater ecosystems vulnerable to environmental change

Freshwater ecosystems are important for global biodiversity and provide essential ecosystem services. There is consensus in the scientific literature that freshwater ecosystems are vulnerable to the impacts of environmental change, which may trigger irreversible regime shifts upon which biodiversity and ecosystem services may be lost. There are profound uncertainties regarding the management and assessment of the vulnerability of freshwater ecosystems to environmental change. Quantitative approaches are needed to reduce this uncertainty. We describe available statistical and modeling approaches along with case studies that demonstrate how resilience theory can be applied to aid decision-making in natural resources management. We highlight especially how long-term monitoring efforts combined with ecological theory can provide a novel nexus between ecological impact assessment and management, and the quantification of systemic vulnerability and thus the resilience of ecosystems to environmental change.