Progress in the Mathematical Modelling of Visceral Leishmaniasis

Elucidating the role played by bone marrow in visceral leishmaniasis

Leishmaniasis is a widespread group of infectious diseases that significantly impact global health. Despite high prevalence, leishmaniasis often receives inadequate attention in the prioritization of measures targeting tropical diseases. The causative agents of leishmaniasis are protozoan parasites of the Leishmania genus, which give rise to a diverse range of clinical manifestations, including cutaneous and visceral forms. Visceral leishmaniasis (VL), the most severe form, can be life-threatening if left untreated. Parasites can spread systemically within the body, infecting a range of organs, such as the liver, spleen, bone marrow and lymph nodes. Natural reservoirs for these protozoa include rodents, dogs, foxes, jackals, and wolves, with dogs serving as the primary urban reservoir for Leishmania infantum. Dogs exhibit clinical and pathological similarities to human VL and are valuable models for studying disease progression. Both human and canine VL provoke clinical symptoms, such as organ enlargement, fever, weight loss and abnormal gamma globulin levels. Hematologic abnormalities have also been observed, including anemia, leukopenia with lymphocytosis, neutropenia, and thrombocytopenia. Studies in dogs have linked these hematologic changes in peripheral blood to alterations in the bone marrow. Mouse models of VL have also contributed significantly to our understanding of the mechanisms underlying these hematologic and bone marrow abnormalities. This review consolidates information on hematological and immunological changes in the bone marrow of humans, dogs, and mice infected with Leishmania species causing VL. It includes findings on the role of bone marrow as a source of parasite persistence in internal organs and VL development. Highlighting gaps in current knowledge, the review emphasizes the need for future research to enhance our understanding of VL and identify potential targets for novel diagnostic and therapeutic approaches.

Challenges of using modelling evidence in the visceral leishmaniasis elimination programme in India

As India comes closer to the elimination of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) as a public health problem, surveillance efforts and elimination targets must be continuously revised and strengthened. Mathematical modelling is a compelling research discipline for informing policy and programme design in its capacity to project incidence across space and time, the likelihood of achieving benchmarks, and the impact of different interventions. To gauge the extent to which modelling informs policy in India, this qualitative analysis explores how and whether policy makers understand, value, and reference recently produced VL modelling research. Sixteen semi-structured interviews were carried out with both users- and producers- of VL modelling research, guided by a knowledge utilisation framework grounded in knowledge translation theory. Participants reported that barriers to knowledge utilisation include 1) scepticism that models accurately reflect transmission dynamics, 2) failure of modellers to apply their analyses to specific programme operations, and 3) lack of accountability in the process of translating knowledge to policy. Political trust and support are needed to translate knowledge into programme activities, and employment of a communication intermediary may be a necessary approach to improve this process.

Livestock and rodents within an endemic focus of Visceral Leishmaniasis are not reservoir hosts for Leishmania donovani

Leishmaniasis on the Indian subcontinent is thought to have an anthroponotic transmission cycle. There is no direct evidence that a mammalian host other than humans can be infected with Leishmania donovani and transmit infection to the sand fly vector. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the impact of sand fly feeding on other domestic species and provide clinical evidence regarding possible non-human reservoirs through experimental sand fly feeding on cows, water buffalo goats and rodents. We performed xenodiagnosis using colonized Phlebotomus argentipes sand flies to feed on animals residing in villages with active Leishmania transmission based on current human cases. Xenodiagnoses on mammals within the endemic area were performed and blood-fed flies were analyzed for the presence of Leishmania via qPCR 48hrs after feeding. Blood samples were also collected from these mammals for qPCR and serology. Although we found evidence of Leishmania infection within some domestic mammals, they were not infectious to vector sand flies. Monitoring infection in sand flies and non-human blood meal sources in endemic villages leads to scientific proof of exposure and parasitemia in resident mammals. Lack of infectiousness of these domestic mammals to vector sand flies indicates that they likely play no role, or a very limited role in Leishmania donovani transmission to people in Bihar. Therefore, a surveillance system in the peri-/post-elimination phase of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) must monitor absence of transmission. Continued surveillance of domestic mammals in outbreak villages is necessary to ensure that a non-human reservoir is not established, including domestic mammals not present in this study, specifically dogs.

Nano Based Approach for the Treatment of Neglected Tropical Diseases

Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) afflict more than one billion peoples in the world’s poorest countries. The World Health Organization (WHO) has recorded seventeen NTDs in its portfolio, mainly caused by bacterial, protozoal, parasitic, and viral infections. Each of the NTDs has its unique challenges on human health such as interventions for control, prevention, diagnosis, and treatment. Research for the development of new drug molecules against NTDs has not been undertaken by pharmaceutical industries due to high investment and low-returns, which results in limited chemotherapeutics in the market. In addition, conventional chemotherapies for the treatment of NTDs are unsatisfactory due to its low efficacy, increased drug resistance, short half-life, potential or harmful fatal toxic side effects, and drug incompetence to reach the site of parasite infection. In this context, active chemotherapies are considered to be re-formulated by overcoming these toxic side effects via a tissue-specific targeted drug delivery system. This review mainly emphasizes the recent developments of nanomaterial-based drug delivery systems for the effective treatment of NTDs especially sleeping sickness, leishmaniasis, chagas disease, soil-transmitted helminthiasis, african trypanosomiasis and dengue. Nanomaterials based drug delivery systems offer enhanced and effective alternative therapy through the re-formulation approach of conventional drugs into site-specific targeted delivery of drugs.

Policy Recommendations From Transmission Modeling for the Elimination of Visceral Leishmaniasis in the Indian Subcontinent

Background

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) has been targeted by the World Health Organization (WHO) and 5 countries in the Indian subcontinent for elimination as a public health problem. To achieve this target, the WHO has developed guidelines consisting of 4 phases of different levels of interventions, based on vector control through indoor residual spraying of insecticide (IRS) and active case detection (ACD). Mathematical transmission models of VL are increasingly used for planning and assessing the efficacy of interventions and evaluating the intensity and timescale required to achieve the elimination target.

Methods

This paper draws together the key policy-relevant conclusions from recent transmission modeling of VL, and presents new predictions for VL incidence under the interventions recommended by the WHO using the latest transmission models.

Results

The model predictions suggest that the current WHO guidelines should be sufficient to reach the elimination target in areas that had medium VL endemicities (up to 5 VL cases per 10000 population per year) prior to the start of interventions. However, additional interventions, such as extending the WHO attack phase (intensive IRS and ACD), may be required to bring forward elimination in regions with high precontrol endemicities, depending on the relative infectiousness of different disease stages.

Conclusions

The potential hurdle that asymptomatic and, in particular, post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis cases may pose to reaching and sustaining the target needs to be addressed. As VL incidence decreases, the pool of immunologically naive individuals will grow, creating the potential for new outbreaks.

Spatio-temporal modelling of Leishmania infantum infection among domestic dogs: a simulation study and sensitivity analysis applied to rural Brazil

BACKGROUND

The parasite Leishmania infantum causes zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis (VL), a potentially fatal vector-borne disease of canids and humans. Zoonotic VL poses a significant risk to public health, with regions of Latin America being particularly afflicted by the disease. Leishmania infantum parasites are transmitted between hosts during blood-feeding by infected female phlebotomine sand flies. With a principal reservoir host of L. infantum being domestic dogs, limiting prevalence in this reservoir may result in a reduced risk of infection for the human population. To this end, a primary focus of research efforts has been to understand disease transmission dynamics among dogs. One way this can be achieved is through the use of mathematical models.

METHODS

We have developed a stochastic, spatial, individual-based mechanistic model of L. infantum transmission in domestic dogs. The model framework was applied to a rural Brazilian village setting with parameter values informed by fieldwork and laboratory data. To ensure household and sand fly populations were realistic, we statistically fitted distributions for these entities to existing survey data. To identify the model parameters of highest importance, we performed a stochastic parameter sensitivity analysis of the prevalence of infection among dogs to the model parameters.

RESULTS

We computed parametric distributions for the number of humans and animals per household and a non-parametric temporal profile for sand fly abundance. The stochastic parameter sensitivity analysis determined prevalence of L. infantum infection in dogs to be most strongly affected by the sand fly associated parameters and the proportion of immigrant dogs already infected with L. infantum parasites.

CONCLUSIONS

Establishing the model parameters with the highest sensitivity of average L. infantum infection prevalence in dogs to their variation helps motivate future data collection efforts focusing on these elements. Moreover, the proposed mechanistic modelling framework provides a foundation that can be expanded to explore spatial patterns of zoonotic VL in humans and to assess spatially targeted interventions.

Insecticide-impregnated dog collars reduce infantile clinical visceral leishmaniasis under operational conditions in NW Iran: A community-wide cluster randomised trial

OBJECTIVE

To assess the effectiveness of community-wide deployment of insecticide-impregnated collars for dogs- the reservoir of Leishmania infantum-to reduce infantile clinical visceral leishmaniasis (VL).

METHODS

A pair matched-cluster randomised controlled trial involving 40 collared and 40 uncollared control villages (161 [95% C.L.s: 136, 187] children per cluster), was designed to detect a 55% reduction in 48 month confirmed VL case incidence. The intervention study was designed by the authors, but implemented by the Leishmaniasis Control Program in NW Iran, from 2002 to 2006.

RESULTS

The collars provided 50% (95% C.I. 17·8%-70·0%) protection against infantile VL incidence (0·95/1000/yr compared to 1·75/1000/yr). Reductions in incidence were observed across 76% (22/29) of collared villages compared to pair-matched control villages, with 31 fewer cases by the end of the trial period. In 11 paired villages, no further cases were recorded post-intervention, whereas in 7 collared villages there were 9 new clinical cases relative to controls. Over the trial period, 6,835 collars were fitted at the beginning of the 4 month sand fly season, of which 6.9% (95% C.I. 6.25%, 7.56%) were lost but rapidly replaced. Collar coverage (percent dogs collared) per village varied between 66% and 100%, with a mean annual coverage of 87% (95% C.I. 84·2, 89·0%). The variation in post-intervention clinical VL incidence was not associated with collar coverage, dog population size, implementation logistics, dog owner compliance, or other demographic variables tested. Larger reductions and greater persistence in incident case numbers (indicative of transmission) were observed in villages with higher pre-existing VL case incidence.

CONCLUSION

Community-wide deployment of collars can provide a significant level of protection against infantile clinical VL, achieved in this study by the local VL Control Program, demonstrating attributes desirable of a sustainable public health program. The effectiveness is not dissimilar to the community-level protection provided against human and canine infection with L. infantum.

Age trends in asymptomatic and symptomatic Leishmania donovani infection in the Indian subcontinent: A review and analysis of data from diagnostic and epidemiological studies

BACKGROUND

Age patterns in asymptomatic and symptomatic infection with Leishmania donovani, the causative agent of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the Indian subcontinent (ISC), are currently poorly understood. Age-stratified serology and infection incidence have been used to assess transmission levels of other diseases, which suggests that they may also be of use for monitoring and targeting control programmes to achieve elimination of VL and should be included in VL transmission dynamic models. We therefore analysed available age-stratified data on both disease incidence and prevalence of immune markers with the aim of collating the currently available data, estimating rates of infection, and informing modelling and future data collection.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

A systematic literature search yielded 13 infection prevalence and 7 VL incidence studies meeting the inclusion criteria. Statistical tests were performed to identify trends by age, and according to diagnostic cut-off. Simple reversible catalytic models with age-independent and age-dependent infection rates were fitted to the prevalence data to estimate infection and reversion rates, and to test different hypotheses about the origin of variation in these rates. Most of the studies showed an increase in infection prevalence with age: from ≲10% seroprevalence (<20% Leishmanin skin test (LST) positivity) for 0-10-year-olds to >10% seroprevalence (>20% LST-positivity) for 30-40-year-olds, but overall prevalence varied considerably between studies. VL incidence was lower amongst 0-5-year-olds than older age groups in most studies; most showing a peak in incidence between ages 5 and 20. The age-independent catalytic model provided the best overall fit to the infection prevalence data, but the estimated rates for the less parsimonious age-dependent model were much closer to estimates from longitudinal studies, suggesting that infection rates may increase with age.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Age patterns in asymptomatic infection prevalence and VL incidence in the ISC vary considerably with geographical location and time period. The increase in infection prevalence with age and peaked age-VL-incidence distribution may be due to lower exposure to infectious sandfly bites in young children, but also suggest that acquired immunity to the parasite increases with age. However, poor standardisation of serological tests makes it difficult to compare data from different studies and draw firm conclusions about drivers of variation in observed age patterns.

Advances toward Diagnostic Tools for Managing Zoonotic Visceral Leishmaniasis

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a life-threatening outcome of Leishmania infantum or Leishmania donovani infection. Dogs are the primary domestic reservoir of L. infantum parasites, and ownership of infected dogs increases the risk of human VL. Controlling infection within dog populations is regarded as critical to VL management in endemic countries, both preventing progression of canine disease and limiting parasite transmission to humans and dogs. Here we discuss various strategies that are used to diagnose canine visceral leishmaniasis (CVL) and the possibilities of adapting these for use within population screening and control programs. In addition, given the variable transmissibility of L. infantum to the sand fly vector, we outline some possibilities for the preferential identification of 'super-spreader' dogs among the overall infected population.

The role of case proximity in transmission of visceral leishmaniasis in a highly endemic village in Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is characterised by a high degree of spatial clustering at all scales, and this feature remains even with successful control measures. VL is targeted for elimination as a public health problem in the Indian subcontinent by 2020, and incidence has been falling rapidly since 2011. Current control is based on early diagnosis and treatment of clinical cases, and blanket indoor residual spraying of insecticide (IRS) in endemic villages to kill the sandfly vectors. Spatially targeting active case detection and/or IRS to higher risk areas would greatly reduce costs of control, but its effectiveness as a control strategy is unknown. The effectiveness depends on two key unknowns: how quickly transmission risk decreases with distance from a VL case and how much asymptomatically infected individuals contribute to transmission.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

To estimate these key parameters, a spatiotemporal transmission model for VL was developed and fitted to geo-located epidemiological data on 2494 individuals from a highly endemic village in Mymensingh, Bangladesh. A Bayesian inference framework that could account for the unknown infection times of the VL cases, and missing symptom onset and recovery times, was developed to perform the parameter estimation. The parameter estimates obtained suggest that, in a highly endemic setting, VL risk decreases relatively quickly with distance from a case-halving within 90m-and that VL cases contribute significantly more to transmission than asymptomatic individuals.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

These results suggest that spatially-targeted interventions may be effective for limiting transmission. However, the extent to which spatial transmission patterns and the asymptomatic contribution vary with VL endemicity and over time is uncertain. In any event, interventions would need to be performed promptly and in a large radius (≥300m) around a new case to reduce transmission risk.

Estimating the efficacy of community-wide use of systemic insecticides in dogs to control zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis: A modelling study in a Brazilian scenario

Systemic insecticides in dogs have been suggested as a public health intervention to prevent human cases of Zoonotic Visceral Leishmaniasis (ZVL). But, currently there are no systemic insecticides for dogs registered against zoo-anthropophilic pool blood feeding phlebotomine flies. We predict the impact of community-wide use of systemic insecticide in dog populations as a public health measure to control transmission of Leishmania infantum to humans using a mathematical model. We developed a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected (SEI) compartmental model to describe L. infantum transmission dynamics in dogs, with a vectorial capacity term to represent transmission between L. infantum-hosting dogs via phlebotomine flies. For Infected (I) dogs two levels of infectiousness were modelled, high infectiousness and low infectiousness. Human incidence was estimated through its relationship to infection in the dog population. We evaluated outcomes from a wide range of scenarios comprising different combinations of initial insecticide efficacy, duration of insecticide efficacy over time, and proportion of the dog population treated (60%, 70% & 80%). The same reduction in human infection incidence can be achieved via different combinations of insecticide efficacy, duration and dog coverage. For example, a systemic insecticide with an initial efficacy of 80% and 6 months above 65% efficacy would require treating at least 70% of the dogs to reduce the human infection incidence by 50%. Sensitivity analysis showed that the model outcome was most sensitive to baseline values of phlebotomine fly daily survival rate and insecticide coverage. Community-wide use of systemic insecticides applied to the “L. infantum canine reservoir” can significantly reduce human incidence of L. infantum infection. The results of this mathematical model can help defining the insecticide target product profile and how the insecticide should be applied to maximise effectiveness.

Zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis (ZVL) is a potentially deadly disease in humans caused by Leishmania infantum. This leishmania species can be delivered by pool blood feeding zoo-anthropophilic phlebotomine flies to several mammals, the dog population being recognized as the main reservoir. Transmission from infected dogs to humans is through the bite of female phlebotomine sand flies. The disease is endemic in several countries and Brazil has a high prevalence of cases with over 3000 ZVL cases reported per year. The main, inefficient and highly controversial, control measure in Brazil has been culling sero-positive dogs. The community-wide use of systemic insecticides in dogs could be an alternative to control L. infantum transmission from phlebotomine flies to humans. The rationale is that phlebotomine flies which sampled their blood meals from dogs treated with systemic insecticides would die reducing the risk of L. infantum transmission. To reduce the number of ZVL cases, a large proportion of dogs in the community should be treated and the systemic insecticide used should be effective in killing phlebotomine flies acting as vectors of L. infantum parasites for a significant amount of time. We used a mathematical model mimicking L. infantum transmission to show that this novel vector control strategy could be effective. We identified the combination of different key parameters (e.g. insecticide efficacy, duration and proportion of dogs treated) that could lead to a significant reduction of the risk of L. infantum infection in humans.

Current Visceral Leishmaniasis Research: A Research Review to Inspire Future Study

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL), one of the deadliest parasitic diseases in the world, causes more than 50,000 human deaths each year and afflicts millions of people throughout South America, East Africa, South Asia, and Mediterranean Region. In 2015 the World Health Organization classified VL as a neglected tropical disease (NTD), prompting concentrated study of the VL epidemic using mathematical and simulation models. This paper reviews literature related to prevalence and prevention control strategies. More than thirty current research works were reviewed and classified based on VL epidemic study methods, including modeling approaches, control strategies, and simulation techniques since 2013. A summarization of these technical methods, major findings, and contributions from existing works revealed that VL epidemic research efforts must improve in the areas of validating and verifying VL mathematical models with real-world epidemic data. In addition, more dynamic disease control strategies must be explored and advanced simulation techniques must be used to predict VL pandemics.

A field study of the survival and dispersal pattern of Lutzomyia longipalpis in an endemic area of visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil

Zoonotic Visceral leishmaniasis (ZVL) is a neglected tropical disease that in the Americas is caused by the infection of Leishmania infantum and the domestic dog (Canis familiaris) is the main parasite reservoir in urban areas. The parasite is mainly transmitted by populations of the sibling species Lutzomyia longipalpis that has been spreading in countries including Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and more recently Uruguay. Although bionomic parameters such as population survival and the duration of the gonotrophic cycle are critical in evaluating vector capacity, field studies have rarely been applied to sand fly populations. The present study sought to evaluate basic bionomic parameters related to the vectorial capacity of the (S)-9-methylgermacrene-B population of the Lu. longipalpis complex in a visceral leishmaniasis area of Sao Paulo state. The daily survival rate, the duration of the gonotrophic cycle and the dispersal pattern were evaluated through the mark- release-recapture method. A total of 1,547 males and 401 females were marked and released in five experiments carried out between February 2013 and February 2014. The higher recapture rates occurred within 100 meters of the release point and the estimated daily survival rates varied between 0.69 and 0.89 for females and between 0.69 and 0.79 for males. The minimum duration of the gonotrophic cycle observed was five days. The absolute population size, calculated ranged from 900 to 4,857 females and from 2,882 to 9,543 males. Our results demonstrate a high survival rate of this vector population and low dispersal that could be associated with the presence of all necessary conditions for its establishment and maintenance in the peridomiciles of this area. Our findings contribute to the basic data necessary for the understanding of ZVL dynamics and the evaluation of the implementation of prevention and control measures.

Safety Analysis of Leishmania Vaccine Used in a Randomized Canine Vaccine/Immunotherapy Trial

In Leishmania infantum-endemic countries, controlling infection within dogs, the domestic reservoir, is critical to public health. There is a need for safe vaccines that prevent canine progression with disease and transmission to others. Protective vaccination against Leishmania requires mounting a strong, inflammatory, Type 1 response. Three commercially available canine vaccines on the global veterinary market use saponin or inflammatory antigen components (Letifend) as a strong pro-inflammatory adjuvant. There is very little information detailing safety of saponin as an adjuvant in field trials. Safety analyses for the use of vaccine as an immunotherapeutic in asymptomatically infected animals are completely lacking. Leishmania infantum, the causative agent of canine leishmaniasis, is enzootic within U.S. hunting hounds. We assessed the safety of LeishTec^® after use in dogs from two different clinical states: 1) without clinical signs and tested negative on polymerase chain reaction and serology or 2) without clinical signs and positive for at least one Leishmania diagnostic test. Vaccine safety was assessed after all three vaccinations to quantify the number and severity of adverse events. Vaccinated animals had an adverse event rate of 3.09%, whereas placebo animals had 0.68%. Receiving vaccine was correlated with the occurrence of mild, site-specific, reactions. Occurrence of severe adverse events was not associated with having received vaccine. Infected, asymptomatic animals did not have a higher rate of adverse events. Use of vaccination is, therefore, likely to be safe in infected, asymptomatic animals.

Elimination of visceral leishmaniasis in the Indian subcontinent: a comparison of predictions from three transmission models

We present three transmission models of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the Indian subcontinent (ISC) with structural differences regarding the disease stage that provides the main contribution to transmission, including models with a prominent role of asymptomatic infection, and fit them to recent case data from 8 endemic districts in Bihar, India. Following a geographical cross-validation of the models, we compare their predictions for achieving the WHO VL elimination targets with ongoing treatment and vector control strategies. All the transmission models suggest that the WHO elimination target (<1 new VL case per 10,000 capita per year at sub-district level) is likely to be met in Bihar, India, before or close to 2020 in sub-districts with a pre-control incidence of 10 VL cases per 10,000 people per year or less, when current intervention levels (60% coverage of indoor residual spraying (IRS) of insecticide and a delay of 40days from onset of symptoms to treatment (OT)) are maintained, given the accuracy and generalizability of the existing data regarding incidence and IRS coverage. In settings with a pre-control endemicity level of 5/10,000, increasing the effective IRS coverage from 60 to 80% is predicted to lead to elimination of VL 1-3 years earlier (depending on the particular model), and decreasing OT from 40 to 20days to bring elimination forward by approximately 1year. However, in all instances the models suggest that L. donovani transmission will continue after 2020 and thus that surveillance and control measures need to remain in place until the longer-term aim of breaking transmission is achieved.