Building resilient food system amidst COVID-19: Responses and lessons from China

Constructing cropland ecological stability assessment method based on disturbance-resistance-response processes and classifying cropland ecological types

The cropland ecosystem stability (CES) has received increasing attention, especially in ecologically fragile areas, because of its impact on cropland quality, agricultural production and its ability to resist external disturbances. In this study, we first introduced the concepts of resilience and resistance, proposed the ecosystem disturbance-resistance-response process, and established a framework for evaluating the spatial and temporal dynamics of the CES based on RS data, and innovatively combined the RS assessment results of CES with soil field samples data to further classify cropland ecological types (CET) in a key agricultural areas of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, which can effectively identify those croplands in need of priority ecological protection. Results indicate that the combined interactions of disturbance, resistance and response systems affect CES, forming a complex process with significant fluctuations and spatial variations. We also conclude that the disturbance system is positively influenced by topography and precipitation, while slope negatively affects resistance system. Hydrothermal conditions positively influence resistance system, while the response system is influenced by environmental factors at a lower intensity in six periods. It was interesting to note that soil α-biodiversity indicators are significantly and positively correlated with CES at the end of the study period. Therefore, based on the CES assessment results, we further combined the soil α-biodiversity indicators to classify the type of spatial pattern of CET and found that the eastern and northern areas have better quality, which implied an increase in the CES and a higher level of soil biodiversity, which was ideal for cropland expansion. On the contrary, we concluded that the ecosystem maintenance of the Huangshui headwaters and the northern mountainous areas needs to be strengthened in order to reverse the ecological fragility here and safeguard the cropland productive capacity.

Mapping scientific knowledge discovery on COVID-19 pandemic and agriculture: a bibliometric analysis and future research directions

This paper aims at analyzing the research productivity and scientific knowledge discovery of the COVID-19 pandemic in agriculture using a bibliometric analysis approach. A total of 1514 research papers indexed in the Scopus database, covering a period of 2020 to 2022, are processed using VOSviewer and R-Studio software. The analysis of research productivity indicates that the number of research publications on COVID-19 and agriculture has exponentially increased globally, and about 80% of the research papers have been published in the top 10 countries led by the USA, India, and China. The countries are increasingly collaborating in undertaking research on COVID-19 and agriculture. Furthermore, major journals and articles with citations have been extracted to analyze the leading publication avenues and focused areas of research. The science mapping is done using co-occurrence and thematic map. With the help of co-occurrence analysis, six clusters are identified depicting major research themes, i.e., COVID-19 and agricultural supply chain disruption, COVID-19 and human health issues and coping strategies, COVID-19 and non-human and animal health, COVID-19 pandemic and environment and pollution, COVID-19 and healthcare and treatment, and COVID-19 and food nutrition from dairy and meat products. The thematic map analysis identifies potential research areas such as mental health, anxiety, and depression in the agricultural system, which may help in setting future research agenda and help devising policy supports for managing the agriculture sector better during crisis. The paper also highlights the theoretical and practical implications.

Changes in Household Dietary Diversity in Herder Communities over the Past 20 Years: Evidence from Xilin Gol Grassland of China

Food security is critical for socioeconomic development. In grassland areas, inappropriate food consumption patterns can cause irreversible damage to vulnerable local ecosystems. This study aims to examine the household dietary diversity status and development trend over the past 20 years in Chinese herder communities. We draw on a cross-sectional dataset of 230 households involving 652 family members from the Xilin Gol Grassland areas in North China. Household dietary diversity was assessed using the household dietary diversity score (HDDS), which was calculated based on 12 food groups. Results show that HDDS increased from 3.74 in 1999 to 5.92 in 2019, with an annual average growth rate of 2.45% during the past 20 years. The increase in plant-based food scores made a major contribution to the HDDS improvement. The variations in household dietary diversity status between pastoral areas and agro-pastoral areas showed differences among different types of grassland in arid and semiarid transitional zones. It is worth paying more attention to monitoring the main impact factors that affect HDDS and how these changes might impact the local ecosystem, which will benefit regional sustainable development.

Promoting agri-food systems resilience through ICT in developing countries amid COVID-19

An increasing body of literature has demonstrated COVID-19's harmful impact on agri-food systems, which are a major source of livelihood for millions of people worldwide. Information and communication technology (ICT) has been playing an increasing role in enhancing agri-food systems' resilience amid COVID-19. In this study, the PRISMA approach was employed to perform a systematic review of the literature from January 2020 to December 2021 on the overall impact of COVID-19 on agri-food system networks and ICT's role in enhancing agri-food system resilience in developing countries. This study reveals that COVID-19 has posed abundant obstacles to agri-food systems actors, including a lack of inputs, technical support, challenges to selling the product, transportation barriers, and low pricing. These impediments result in insufficient output, unforeseen stock, and revenue loss. COVID-19's restrictions have caused a significant food deficit by disrupting the demand and supply sides of the agri-food system networks. A high number of small-scale farmers have had to deal with food insecurity. As a result of the cumulative effects, actors in the agri-food system are getting less motivated to continue producing. This study also argues that many challenges in the agri-food systems can be overcome using ICTs, including maintaining precise farm management, product marketing, and access to production inputs. To assist stakeholders in coping with, adapting to, and building resilience in the agri-food system networks, this article emphasizes the critical need to turn to and expand the application of advanced agricultural ICTs to meet the world's growing needs for food production and to ensure the resilience and sustainability of farming systems, particularly in the face of a pandemic like COVID-19.

Pathways to food insecurity: Migration, hukou and COVID-19 in Nanjing, China

The COVID-19 pandemic has issued significant challenges to food systems and the food security of migrants in cities. In China, there have been no studies to date focusing on the food security of migrants during the pandemic. To fill this gap, an online questionnaire survey of food security in Nanjing City, China, was conducted in March 2020. This paper situates the research findings in the general literature on the general migrant experience during the pandemic under COVID and the specifics of the Chinese policy of hukou. Using multiple linear regression and ordered logistic regression, the paper examines the impact of migration status on food security during the pandemic. The paper finds that during the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020, households without local Nanjing hukou were more food insecure than those with Nanjing hukou. The differences related more to the absolute quantity of food intake, rather than reduction in food quality or in levels of anxiety over food access. Migrants in China and elsewhere during COVID-19 experienced three pathways to food insecurity-an income gap, an accessibility gap, and a benefits gap. This conceptual framework is used to structure the discussion and interpretation of survey findings and also has wider potential applicability.

Toward Better Food Security Using Concepts from Industry 5.0

The rapid growth of the world population has increased the food demand as well as the need for assurance of food quality, safety, and sustainability. However, food security can easily be compromised by not only natural hazards but also changes in food preferences, political conflicts, and food frauds. In order to contribute to building a more sustainable food system-digitally visible and processes measurable-within this review, we summarized currently available evidence for various information and communication technologies (ICTs) that can be utilized to support collaborative actions, prevent fraudulent activities, and remotely perform real-time monitoring, which has become essential, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. The Internet of Everything, 6G, blockchain, artificial intelligence, and digital twin are gaining significant attention in recent years in anticipation of leveraging the creativity of human experts in collaboration with efficient, intelligent, and accurate machines, but with limited consideration in the food supply chain. Therefore, this paper provided a thorough review of the food system by showing how various ICT tools can help sense and quantify the food system and highlighting the key enhancements that Industry 5.0 technologies can bring. The vulnerability of the food system can be effectively mitigated with the utilization of various ICTs depending on not only the nature and severity of crisis but also the specificity of the food supply chain. There are numerous ways of implementing these technologies, and they are continuously evolving.

The Interplay of E-commerce, Resilience and Exports in the Context of COVID-19

Scholars have extolled e-commerce as a pathway for sustaining firm operations in the unique circumstances of COVID-19. To add crisis time evidence to the body of work, and based on World Bank Enterprise Survey data, this inquiry interrogates 249 small manufacturing firms in Italy by examining the effect of e-commerce on (1) resilience, (2) direct exports and (3) indirect exports. The results show that while e-commerce has a positive impact on direct exports, a negative influence is recorded on indirect exports. Besides, e-commerce significantly increases resilience which, in turn, accelerates direct exports. However, resilience is found to have a trivial influence on indirect exporting. Furthermore, held as a constant, firm size demonstrates a significant and positive effect on direct and indirect exports. These fresh findings prompt implications for understanding the correlates of e-commerce, resilience and export behaviour. Practically, there are salient insights for stakeholders engaged in reviving small manufacturers' exports for a speedy post COVID-19 recovery in Italy.

Has COVID-19 accelerated the E-commerce of agricultural products? Evidence from sales data of E-stores in China

We investigated the operation of e-stores specializing in food and agricultural products before and after the occurrence of COVID-19. A difference-in-difference (DID) method was employed to estimate the relationship between COVID-19 and the online sales of agricultural products using data from 164,002 food and agricultural product e-commerce stores (in short, e-stores) of two major Chinese e-commerce platforms in 120 prefectural-level or above cities. The results demonstrated that while COVID-19 and its control measures were associated with a substantial growth in the monthly sales of food and agricultural product e-stores, the growth varies considerably across store scales and with the type of food and agricultural product in which an e-store is specialized. Micro stores experienced much larger growth and played a more important role in maintaining the resilience of the supply chain of food and agricultural products than larger-scale stores; stores selling more essential food items experienced larger growth than those selling leisure food items. A mechanism analysis further revealed that the growth of online sales of agricultural products was mainly driven by changes in consumers' food purchase behaviors from offline channels to online channels (i.e., an increase in the number of online customer orders and price per online order) starting with the onset of COVID-19. The results of this paper underscore the importance of e-commerce in maintaining the resilience of the agri-food supply chain and call for public support of the development of micro- and small-scale e-stores to meet consumers' increasing demand for food supply from those types of stores during the pandemic period.

Disruption to vegetable food systems during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Lao People's Democratic Republic

Globally, the COVID-19 (SARSCoV-2) pandemic has affected human health and the flow of goods and services in many sectors, with significant social and economic consequences and repercussions. COVID-19 lockdowns have disrupted food systems; impacting farmers, food producers, traders and consumers. Using a food system approach, disruptions to and the resilience of vegetable food production and trade was analysed. Representatives of traditional farming systems in Lao PDR producing and trading vegetables were involved. Over 350 farmers, 60 wholesalers, 50 retailers and 70 consumers were surveyed to determine the disruptions to vegetable supplies in terms of quantities traded, prices and income fluctuations. Findings revealed significant impacts on trading capacity and consequent reductions in incomes, prices, purchases, transport and sales of produce. However, livelihoods resumed as soon as the lockdown lifted. Traditionally, vegetable production and trading are a woman's tasks and hence women were the most affected by the disruptions. With trading contractions, the stability of the food supply was threatened, but only temporarily, indicating that a traditional, resilient farming system based on lower population densities, lower input requirements and lower productivity could adapt to novel disruptions in the short term.

Dynamic Impacts of External Uncertainties on the Stability of the Food Supply Chain: Evidence from China

The food supply chain operates in a complex and dynamic external environment, and the external uncertainties from natural and socio-economic environment pose great challenges to the development of the food industry. In particular, the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia–Ukraine conflict have further exacerbated the vulnerability of the global food supply chain. Analyzing the dynamic impacts of external uncertainties on the stability of food supply chain is central to guaranteeing the sustainable security of food supply. Based on the division of food supply chain and the classification of external uncertainties, the TVP-FAVAR-SV model was constructed to explore the dynamic impacts of external uncertainties on food supply chain. It was found that the impacts of external uncertainty elements were significantly different, the combination of different external uncertainty elements aggravated or reduced the risks of food supply chain. And some uncertainty elements had both positive and negative impacts in the whole sample period, as the magnitude and direction of the impacts of various uncertainties in different periods had time-varying characteristics.

Farmer surveys in Europe suggest that specialized, intensive farms were more likely to perceive negative impacts from COVID-19

It has been shown that the COVID-19 pandemic affected some agricultural systems more than others, and even within geographic regions, not all farms were affected to the same extent. To build resilience of agricultural systems to future shocks, it is key to understand which farms were affected and why. In this study, we examined farmers' perceived robustness to COVID-19, a key resilience capacity. We conducted standardized farmer interviews (n = 257) in 15 case study areas across Europe, covering a large range of socio-ecological contexts and farm types. Interviews targeted perceived livelihood impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on productivity, sales, price, labor availability, and supply chains in 2020, as well as farm(er) characteristics and farm management. Our study corroborates earlier evidence that most farms were not or only slightly affected by the first wave(s) of the pandemic in 2020, and that impacts varied widely by study region. However, a significant minority of farmers across Europe reported that the pandemic was "the worst crisis in a lifetime" (3%) or "the worst crisis in a decade" (7%). Statistical analysis showed that more specialized and intensive farms were more likely to have perceived negative impacts. From a societal perspective, this suggests that highly specialized, intensive farms face higher vulnerability to shocks that affect regional to global supply chains. Supporting farmers in the diversification of their production systems while decreasing dependence on service suppliers and supply chain actors may increase their robustness to future disruptions.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13593-022-00820-5.

The immediate impact of the first waves of the global COVID-19 pandemic on agricultural systems worldwide: Reflections on the COVID-19 special issue for agricultural systems

CONTEXT

In May 2020, approximately four months into the COVID-19 pandemic, the journal's editorial team realized there was an opportunity to collect information from a diverse range of agricultural systems on how the pandemic was playing out and affecting the functioning of agricultural systems worldwide.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of the special issue was to rapidly collect information, analysis and perspectives from as many regions as possible on the initial impacts of the pandemic on global agricultural systems, The overall goal for the special issue was to develop a useful repository for this information as well as to use the journal's international reach to share this information with the agricultural systems research community and journal readership.

METHODS

The editorial team put out a call for a special issue to capture the initial effects of the pandemic on the agricultural sector. We also recruited teams from eight global regions to write papers summarizing the impacts of the first waves of the pandemic in their area.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

The work of the regional teams and the broader research community resulted in eight regional summary papers, as well as thirty targeted research articles. In these papers, we find that COVID-19 and global pandemic mitigation measures have had significant and sometimes unexpected impacts on our agricultural systems via shocks to agricultural labour markets, trade and value chains. And, given the high degree of overlap between low income populations and subsistence agricultural production in many regions, we also document significant shocks to food security for these populations, and the high potential for long term losses in terms of human, natural, institutional and economic capital. While we also documented instances of agricultural system resilience capacities, they were not universally accessible. We see particular need to shore up vulnerable agricultural systems and populations most negatively affected by the pandemic and to mitigate pandemic-related losses to preserve other agricultural systems policy objectives, such as improving food security, or addressing climate change.

SIGNIFICANCE

Despite rapid development of vaccines, the pandemic continues to roll on as of the time of writing (early 2022). Only time will tell how the dynamics described in this Special Issue will play out in the coming years. Evidence of agricultural system resilience capacities provides some hopeful perspectives, but also highlights the need to boost these capacities across a wider cross section of agricultural systems and encourage agri-food systems transformation to prepare for more challenges ahead.

Diversified Farming Systems: Impacts and Adaptive Responses to the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States, Norway and China

The COVID-19 pandemic fully exposed the vulnerability of the global agri-food system to shocks and stresses, highlighting the need for transformation and action to make it more resilient and inclusive. This paper offers a unique insight into the global nature of the COVID-19 pandemic by examining impacts and responses in the agri-food sector within three very distinct contexts, namely the United States, Norway, and China. Focusing on small, diversified farms, the study builds on prior research with the same farmers and support organizations from an on-going collaboration. Firstly, we conducted a short review of policy adaptations to understand how governments, the private sector, non-profit organizations, and communities “stepped up” to provide emergency relief, specialized training, and recovery support for farmers, support that was instrumental in preventing more devastating impacts in all three countries. Secondly, drawing from in-depth interviews with farmers (23) and government and non-governmental support organizations (19), we mapped the vulnerability and resiliency of selected farmers to shocks that severely disrupted traditional supply chains during the COVID-19 pandemic. Data were collected on both the negative and positive impacts of the pandemic to farmer inputs, including labor, operations, and markets, how these changed from the initial lockdowns in early 2020 and through 2021, and on farmer adaptive responses to these impacts. In some contexts, innovation and adaptive responses counteracted negative impacts. We saw diversifying markets, catering to consumer safety concerns, switching to direct and e-markets, hiring in more labor or relying on family labor, and switching to high demand crops and products as the most prominent adaptive responses. Farmers who lacked access to information and government programs, in large part because of language, technology and institutional barriers, missed out on pandemic related opportunities and suffered the most. As we enter the post-pandemic new normal it is important to take stock of lessons learned, and to continue to support those initiatives and innovations that were pivotal not only for weathering the storm, but for building a more inclusive and resilient agri-food system in the long-run.

Dynamics and Determinants of the Grain Yield Gap in Major Grain-Producing Areas: A Case Study in Hunan Province, China

Understanding the dynamics of the grain yield gap (YGAP) and its causative factors is essential for optimizing the layout of grain production and addressing the food crisis, especially in countries with a huge population and less cultivated land, such as China. In the study, a spatial analysis- and machine learning-based framework for YGAP analysis was developed, taking Hunan Province, China, as an application. The results showed that the average YGAP in Hunan Province gradually narrowed from 1990 to 2018, and the YGAPs narrowed in 116 counties. Of which, 26 counties narrowed by more than 4 t ha⁻¹, 58 counties narrowed from 2–4 t ha⁻¹, and 32 counties narrowed within 2 t ha⁻¹. Additionally, we found that the GDP per capita (GDPPC), sunshine hours (SH), per capita annual net income of farmers (PCAI), and rural electricity consumption (REC) play a key role in YGAP change, and the importance of human investment to the YGAP decreased, while socioeconomic environment became the dominant factor that influenced grain production. Comprehensively, the relatively great potential for grain yield growth was generated in sixty-four counties, which are mainly located in the northern, central, and southern Hunan. The findings suggest that it is necessary to consider the trends of economic development in rural areas and population migration in agricultural management. This work provides insights into yield gap dynamics and may contribute to sustainable agricultural management in Hunan Province, China, and other similar regions.

Spatial Heterogeneity of Household Food Consumption and Nutritional Characteristics of Grassland Transects in Inner Mongolia, China

Household food consumption is the associative link between ecosystems and anthropogenic activities. In grassland areas, inappropriate food consumption patterns will cause irreversible damage to vulnerable local ecosystems. For this study, we selected three typical transitional grassland areas of Inner Mongolia, China (i.e., meadow steppe, typical steppe, and desert steppe), to analyze spatial heterogeneity in household food consumption and nutritional characteristics. Results showed that: (a) Food consumption structures exhibited zonal gradients from east to west alongside a reduction in grassland conditions. Additionally, the average food consumption quantity also decreased. Available food supplies altered household preferences for vegetables and fruits, meat, dairy products, and other food consumption category types. (b) The nutritional structure implied that grains provided the main source of energy, proteins, and fat for local rural households, while meat, dairy products, beans (including bean byproducts), and oils caused a fluctuation in the nutritional structure of residents. (c) Local food supplies affect short-term local food consumption patterns, while socioeconomic development affects long-term food consumption patterns. This study is intended to provide a reference for the development of sustainable strategies for regional resource management.

Research on the Resilient Evolutionary Game of Logistics Service Supply Chain with Government Participation

The resilient strategy of logistics service supply chains with government participation is not only an effective measure for manufacturers and integrators to lower the risks but also an important component of the modern risk management capability of government. From the perspective of risk society, this paper presupposes the existence of emergencies, embeds the “resilient ability” into the logistics service supply chain, establishes a tripartite evolutionary game model among the government, manufacturers, and integrators, and systematically analyzes the strategy selection process under the participation of the government. On this basis, through numerical experiments, this paper examines the supervision sensitivity with different policies on a micro level, investigates the impact incurred by the change in governmental reward and punishment degree, and further complements the research on the complexity of the strategy selection process in reality. The results show that in the short run, regardless of the reward and punishment measure the government chooses, the manufacturers and integrators will choose not to adopt and implement the resilient supply chain strategy, while, in the long run, increasing manufacturers’ initial supervision and implementing relevant reward and punishment measures can guide integrators to choose the strategy. Increasing government integrators’ reward degree and reducing costs can thus promote the enthusiasm of integrators in resilient logistics service supply chains.

COVID-19 Pandemic, Technological Progress and Food Security Based on a Dynamic CGE Model

The global spread of COVID-19 has complicated the international equilibrium of grain production and trade. China now faces external shocks in the international grain market and deep-seated problems associated with the structure of domestic supply. We used a dynamic, computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to analyse the effects on China’s food security and macroeconomics under the COVID-19 scenario and four technological progress paths in the agricultural sector. We showed that the COVID-19 pandemic is disrupting China’s food security in the short term, and critical quantitative variables such as grain production and grain consumption per capita have declined. Considering food security and macroeconomic development, labour-saving technological progress outperformed neutral technological progress, land-saving technological progress, and capital-saving technological progress in the short run. While land-saving technological progress contributes the most to the arable land area per capita of wheat and other grains in the long run.

Experiences and Lessons from Agri-Food System Transformation for Sustainable Food Security: A Review of China's Practices

Food system transformation has been a widely discussed topic in international society over time. For the last few decades, China has made remarkable achievements in food production and has contributed greatly to the reduction in global hunger and poverty. Examining experiences and lessons from China's food security practices over the years is helpful to promote a national food system transformation for China, as well as other developing countries. This study systematically reviews the literature on Chinese food security studies, with the aim of assessing China's food security achievements and examining the remaining and emerging issues in the pursuit of food system transformation. The results show that China has continuously promoted food system transformation in land consolidation, agri-food production technologies, management and organization modes, food reserves, trade governance, and food consumption. These transformations ensure not only food availability, timeliness, and nutrition, but also in terms of the ecological, social, and economic sustainability, feasibility, and justice of food security. However, China is also confronting new challenges in food security, for example, malnutrition, environmental unsustainability, and reductions in diversified agri-food. In the future, China is expected to be committed to promoting healthy diets, sustainable agricultural production, climate change mitigation, and the reduction of food waste and loss to enhance its agri-food system's resilience.

Dynamic impact of negative public sentiment on agricultural product prices during COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significantly negative impact on public sentiment, which has resulted in panic and some irrational buying behavior, which in turn has had a complex impact on agricultural product prices. This study quantified online negative sentiment using micro-blog text mining and a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model (TVP-VAR) to empirically analyze the dynamic impact of negative public emotions on agricultural product prices during the COVID-19 pandemic in China. It was found that the online negative sentiment impacted agricultural products prices during COVID-19 and had significant time-varying, lag, and life cycle characteristics, with the responses being most significant in the spread and recession periods. Differences were found in the price responses for different agricultural products and in different risk areas. The online negative sentiment was found to have the greatest impact on vegetable prices, with livestock products and vegetable prices being mainly positively impacted, fruit prices being mainly negatively impacted, and aquatic product prices being negatively impacted in the early stage and positively impacted in the middle and late stages. The online negative sentiment had the greatest impact on medium-risk area agricultural product prices, followed by low-risk areas, with the lowest impact found on the high-risk area agricultural product prices. Three policy suggestions for epidemic monitoring, public opinion guidance and control, and the timely release of agricultural product information are given based on the results.

Overstocked Agricultural Produce and Emergency Supply System in the COVID-19 Pandemic: Responses from China

The spread of COVID-19 has affected not only public health but also agriculture, raising global concerns regarding the food system. As an immediate impact of COVID-19, farmers around the globe have had difficulties with sales, resulting in large amounts of overstocked agricultural products and food loss. This further threatens the livelihood of rural, poor farmers and impacts sustainable production. To provide a better understanding of the overstocking situation after the outbreak of the pandemic, this study depicts the distribution characteristics of overstocked agricultural products in China. After analyzing a nationwide data set collected from 3482 individuals/organizations by the Chinese Agri-products Marketing Association after the outbreak of the pandemic, we found that some of the initial prevention and control measures disrupted sales channels, and in turn, caused the farmers to suffer losses. The impact was more severe in perishable products and their production areas, as well as in poverty-stricken regions. Then, we identified China's quick and effective actions to match the supply and demand. These findings suggest that emergency responses should coordinate the relationship between emergency actions and the necessary logistics of agricultural production. To prepare for the possibility of such shock in the future, the government should take actions to clear logistics obstacles for necessary transportation, keep enhancing the fundamental infrastructure and effective mechanism of the food supply chain, and actively include innovative techniques to build a more resilient food system.

Impact of Epidemic-Affected Labor Shortage on Food Safety: A Chinese Scenario Analysis Using the CGE Model

Human food safety should be given priority during a major public health crisis. As the primary element of agricultural production, labor tends to suffer the most during a period of public health concern. Studying the impact of epidemic-affected labor shortages on agricultural production, trade, and prices has important implications for food security. This study used a calculable general equilibrium model to study the changes in agricultural production, trade, and prices under different labor damage scenarios. The results showed that agricultural production was less affected under a scenario where the epidemic was controlled locally. The output of agricultural products decreased by about 2.19%, and the prices of agricultural products increased slightly. However, the nationwide output of agricultural products decreased by only 0.1%, and the prices remained largely stable. In the case of the spread of the epidemic, the output of agricultural products in the epidemic area decreased by 2.11%, and the prices of certain agricultural products increased significantly. For example, the price of vegetables increased by 0.78%, the price of pork increased by about 0.7%, and those of agricultural products in other parts of the country also increased slightly. Compared with the national spread scenario, the local outbreak scenario had a smaller impact on Chinese food security, indicating Chinese effective policy against the epidemic. Although the impact of labor shortage under the influence of the epidemic on China was relatively limited, and considering its stable food security, we should pay attention to the increase in the process of agricultural products and changes in agricultural trade in the epidemic area. The residents in the epidemic areas could not effectively obtain nutritious food, which affected their health. Thus, the government should also completely mobilize agricultural resources to ensure the nutrition safety of residents during major public health incidents.

The Effects of COVID-19 on Beef Consumer Preferences and Beliefs in Colombia: A Logit Model Approach

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought impacts on the food system in several ways, such as on the supply and demand of food or changes in consumer preferences. However, little is known yet about these effects but needs to be analyzed to define actions and policies for crisis mitigation and achieving food system resilience and food security. In this article, we estimate the effect of the COVID-19 lockdown on changes in food consumer preferences in Colombia, applying a logit model approach for seven attributes, namely animal welfare, environmental sustainability, information on the origin and manufacturing of food, food appearance, food price, fair payment to the producer, and food packaging. In addition, we provide an analysis of changes in beef consumption during the lockdown, since the beef industry is among Colombia's most important agricultural activities and is heavily affected by substitution effects. Our results show that consumer beliefs regarding these attributes remained mostly stable, but that income is a determining factor for the decision to consume certain types of food, such as beef, rather than for possible changes in beliefs. This means that income ends up being decisive for the consumption of food such as beef and that, for its part, it does not have a greater weight in the change of beliefs of the people surveyed. The results will help the food system actors in defining interventions for achieving food security and resilience.

Urban Food Systems: A Bibliometric Review from 1991 to 2020

The increase of urbanization is affecting the urban food system (UFS) in many areas, primarily production, processing, and consumption. The upgrading of the urban food consumption structure not only puts forward higher food production requirements, but also poses a challenge to resource consumption and technological innovation. Considerable case or review studies have been conducted on UFS, but there is no bibliometric review attempting to provide an objective and comprehensive analysis of the existing articles. In this study, we selected 5360 research publications from the core Web of Science collection from 1991 to 2020, analyzing contributions of countries, institutions, and journals. In addition, based on keyword co-occurrence and clustering analyses, we evaluated the research hotspots of UFS. The results show that global research interest in UFS has increased significantly during these three decades. The USA, China, and the UK are the countries with the highest output and closest collaborations. UFS research involves multiple subject categories, with environmental disciplines becoming mainstream. Food security, food consumption, and food waste are the three main research areas. We suggest that food sustainability and resilience, food innovation, and comparative studies between cities should be given more attention in the future.

The Impacts of COVID‐19 on Migrants, Remittances, and Poverty in China: A Microsimulation Analysis

Chinese migrant workers are very exposed to the shocks caused by the COVID‐19 pandemic. Falling remittances adversely affect their families who rely on remittance incomes. The impacts of COVID‐19 on migrants and remittance‐receiving households are assessed using a nationally representative household dataset and a microsimulation model. We found about 70 percent of migrant workers lost part of their wage income during the pandemic lockdown period and rural migrants working in small and medium enterprises were affected the most. This led to about 50 percent of remittance‐receiving households being affected adversely by falling remittances, and the average decline in such income was more than 45 percent. Nearly 13 percent of pre‐pandemic nonpoor remittance‐receiving households could fall into poverty, raising the poverty rate among remittance‐receiving households by 4 percentage points. Many households that were poor prior to the pandemic became more impoverished. The results indicate that social protection programs targeting vulnerable migrants and their families at home are important.