Human Demographic History Impacts Genetic Risk Prediction across Diverse Populations

Polygenic prediction of human longevity on the supposition of pervasive pleiotropy

The highly polygenic nature of human longevity renders pleiotropy an indispensable feature of its genetic architecture. Leveraging the genetic correlation between aging-related traits (ARTs), we aimed to model the additive variance in lifespan as a function of the cumulative liability from pleiotropic segregating variants. We tracked allele frequency changes as a function of viability across different age bins and prioritized 34 variants with an immediate implication on lipid metabolism, body mass index (BMI), and cognitive performance, among other traits, revealed by PheWAS analysis in the UK Biobank. Given the highly complex and non-linear interactions between the genetic determinants of longevity, we reasoned that a composite polygenic score would approximate a substantial portion of the variance in lifespan and developed the integrated longevity genetic scores (iLGSs) for distinguishing exceptional survival. We showed that coefficients derived from our ensemble model could potentially reveal an interesting pattern of genomic pleiotropy specific to lifespan. We assessed the predictive performance of our model for distinguishing the enrichment of exceptional longevity among long-lived individuals in two replication cohorts (the Scripps Wellderly cohort and the Medical Genome Reference Bank (MRGB)) and showed that the median lifespan in the highest decile of our composite prognostic index is up to 4.8 years longer. Finally, using the proteomic correlates of iLGS, we identified protein markers associated with exceptional longevity irrespective of chronological age and prioritized drugs with repurposing potentials for gerotherapeutics. Together, our approach demonstrates a promising framework for polygenic modeling of additive liability conferred by ARTs in defining exceptional longevity and assisting the identification of individuals at a higher risk of mortality for targeted lifestyle modifications earlier in life. Furthermore, the proteomic signature associated with iLGS highlights the functional pathway upstream of the PI3K-Akt that can be effectively targeted to slow down aging and extend lifespan.

Sources of gene expression variation in a globally diverse human cohort

Genetic variation that influences gene expression and splicing is a key source of phenotypic diversity1-5. Although invaluable, studies investigating these links in humans have been strongly biased towards participants of European ancestries, which constrains generalizability and hinders evolutionary research. Here to address these limitations, we developed MAGE, an open-access RNA sequencing dataset of lymphoblastoid cell lines from 731 individuals from the 1000 Genomes Project6, spread across 5 continental groups and 26 populations. Most variation in gene expression (92%) and splicing (95%) was distributed within versus between populations, which mirrored the variation in DNA sequence. We mapped associations between genetic variants and expression and splicing of nearby genes (cis-expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) and cis-splicing QTLs (sQTLs), respectively). We identified more than 15,000 putatively causal eQTLs and more than 16,000 putatively causal sQTLs that are enriched for relevant epigenomic signatures. These include 1,310 eQTLs and 1,657 sQTLs that are largely private to underrepresented populations. Our data further indicate that the magnitude and direction of causal eQTL effects are highly consistent across populations. Moreover, the apparent 'population-specific' effects observed in previous studies were largely driven by low resolution or additional independent eQTLs of the same genes that were not detected. Together, our study expands our understanding of human gene expression diversity and provides an inclusive resource for studying the evolution and function of human genomes.

Beyond the Human Genome Project: The Age of Complete Human Genome Sequences and Pangenome References

The Human Genome Project was an enormous accomplishment, providing a foundation for countless explorations into the genetics and genomics of the human species. Yet for many years, the human genome reference sequence remained incomplete and lacked representation of human genetic diversity. Recently, two major advances have emerged to address these shortcomings: complete gap-free human genome sequences, such as the one developed by the Telomere-to-Telomere Consortium, and high-quality pangenomes, such as the one developed by the Human Pangenome Reference Consortium. Facilitated by advances in long-read DNA sequencing and genome assembly algorithms, complete human genome sequences resolve regions that have been historically difficult to sequence, including centromeres, telomeres, and segmental duplications. In parallel, pangenomes capture the extensive genetic diversity across populations worldwide. Together, these advances usher in a new era of genomics research, enhancing the accuracy of genomic analysis, paving the path for precision medicine, and contributing to deeper insights into human biology.

Calibrated prediction intervals for polygenic scores across diverse contexts

Polygenic scores (PGS) have emerged as the tool of choice for genomic prediction in a wide range of fields. We show that PGS performance varies broadly across contexts and biobanks. Contexts such as age, sex and income can impact PGS accuracy with similar magnitudes as genetic ancestry. Here we introduce an approach (CalPred) that models all contexts jointly to produce prediction intervals that vary across contexts to achieve calibration (include the trait with 90% probability), whereas existing methods are miscalibrated. In analyses of 72 traits across large and diverse biobanks (All of Us and UK Biobank), we find that prediction intervals required adjustment by up to 80% for quantitative traits. For disease traits, PGS-based predictions were miscalibrated across socioeconomic contexts such as annual household income levels, further highlighting the need of accounting for context information in PGS-based prediction across diverse populations.

Latin American Trans-ancestry INitiative for OCD genomics (LATINO): Study protocol

Obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) is a debilitating psychiatric disorder. Worldwide, its prevalence is ~2% and its etiology is mostly unknown. Identifying biological factors contributing to OCD will elucidate underlying mechanisms and might contribute to improved treatment outcomes. Genomic studies of OCD are beginning to reveal long-sought risk loci, but >95% of the cases currently in analysis are of homogenous European ancestry. If not addressed, this Eurocentric bias will result in OCD genomic findings being more accurate for individuals of European ancestry than other ancestries, thereby contributing to health disparities in potential future applications of genomics. In this study protocol paper, we describe the Latin American Trans-ancestry INitiative for OCD genomics (LATINO, https://www.latinostudy.org). LATINO is a new network of investigators from across Latin America, the United States, and Canada who have begun to collect DNA and clinical data from 5000 richly phenotyped OCD cases of Latin American ancestry in a culturally sensitive and ethical manner. In this project, we will utilize trans-ancestry genomic analyses to accelerate the identification of OCD risk loci, fine-map putative causal variants, and improve the performance of polygenic risk scores in diverse populations. We will also capitalize on rich clinical data to examine the genetics of treatment response, biologically plausible OCD subtypes, and symptom dimensions. Additionally, LATINO will help elucidate the diversity of the clinical presentations of OCD across cultures through various trainings developed and offered in collaboration with Latin American investigators. We believe this study will advance the important goal of global mental health discovery and equity.

A Polygenic Risk Analysis for Identifying Ulcerative Colitis Patients with European Ancestry

The incidence of ulcerative colitis (UC) has increased globally. As a complex disease, the genetic predisposition for UC could be estimated by the polygenic risk score (PRS), which aggregates the effects of a large number of genetic variants in a single quantity and shows promise in identifying individuals at higher lifetime risk of UC. Here, based on a cohort of 2869 UC cases and 2900 controls with genotype array datasets, we used PRSice-2 to calculate PRS, and systematically analyzed factors that could affect the power of PRS, including GWAS summary statistics, population stratification, and impact of variants. After leveraging a stepwise condition analysis, we eventually established the best PRS model, achieving an AUC of 0.713. Meanwhile, samples in the top 20% of the PRS distribution had a risk of UC more than ten times higher than samples in the lowest 20% (OR = 10.435, 95% CI 8.571-12.703). Our analyses demonstrated that including population-enriched, more disease-associated SNPs and using GWAS summary statistics from similar ethnic background can improve the power of PRS. Strictly following the principle of focusing on one population in all aspects of generating PRS can be a cost-effective way to apply genotype-array-derived PRS to practical risk estimation.

Associations of externalizing polygenic scores with externalizing disorders among Mexican youth

Several studies have examined the association of externalizing polygenic scores (PGS) with externalizing symptoms in samples of European ancestry. However, less is known about the associations of externalizing polygenic vulnerability in relation to phenotypic externalizing disorders among individuals of different ancestries, such as Mexican youth. Here, we leveraged the largest genome-wide association study on externalizing behaviors that included over 1 million individuals of European ancestry to examine associations of externalizing PGS with a range of externalizing disorders in Mexican adolescents, and investigated whether adversity exposure in childhood moderated these associations. Participants (N = 1064; age range 12-17 years old; 58.8% female) were adolescents recruited for a general population survey on adolescent mental health in the Mexico City Metropolitan region and were genotyped. Childhood adversity exposure and externalizing disorders, specifically attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), conduct disorder, oppositional defiant disorder, and substance use disorder, were assessed via the computer-assisted World Mental Health Composite International Diagnostic Interview for adolescents. A greater externalizing PGS was associated with a greater odds of any externalizing disorder (OR = 1.29 [1.12, 1.48]; p < 0.01) and ADHD (OR = 1.40 [1.15, 1.70]; p < 0.01) in the whole sample, and in females in particular. There were no main effects of the externalizing PGS on conduct disorder, oppositional defiant disorder, or substance use disorder, nor did adversity exposure moderate these associations. Our results suggest that greater genetic propensity for externalizing disorders is associated with increased odds of any externalizing disorders and ADHD among Mexican adolescents, furthering our understanding of externalizing disorder manifestation in this population.

PGS-Depot: a comprehensive resource for polygenic scores constructed by summary statistics based methods

Polygenic score (PGS) is an important tool for the genetic prediction of complex traits. However, there are currently no resources providing comprehensive PGSs computed from published summary statistics, and it is difficult to implement and run different PGS methods due to the complexity of their pipelines and parameter settings. To address these issues, we introduce a new resource called PGS-Depot containing the most comprehensive set of publicly available disease-related GWAS summary statistics. PGS-Depot includes 5585 high quality summary statistics (1933 quantitative and 3652 binary trait statistics) curated from 1564 traits in European and East Asian populations. A standardized best-practice pipeline is used to implement 11 summary statistics-based PGS methods, each with different model assumptions and estimation procedures. The prediction performance of each method can be compared for both in- and cross-ancestry populations, and users can also submit their own summary statistics to obtain custom PGS with the available methods. Other features include searching for PGSs by trait name, publication, cohort information, population, or the MeSH ontology tree and searching for trait descriptions with the experimental factor ontology (EFO). All scores, SNP effect sizes and summary statistics can be downloaded via FTP. PGS-Depot is freely available at http://www.pgsdepot.net.

Genome-wide meta-analysis identifies new candidate genes for sickle cell disease nephropathy

Sickle cell disease nephropathy (SCDN), a common SCD complication, is strongly associated with mortality. Polygenic risk scores calculated from recent transethnic meta-analyses of urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) trended toward association with proteinuria and eGFR in SCD but the model fit was poor (R2 < 0.01), suggesting that there are likely unique genetic risk factors for SCDN. Therefore, we performed genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for 2 critical manifestations of SCDN, proteinuria and decreased eGFR, in 2 well-characterized adult SCD cohorts, representing, to the best of our knowledge, the largest SCDN sample to date. Meta-analysis identified 6 genome-wide significant associations (false discovery rate, q ≤ 0.05): 3 for proteinuria (CRYL1, VWF, and ADAMTS7) and 3 for eGFR (LRP1B, linc02288, and FPGT-TNNI3K/TNNI3K). These associations are independent of APOL1 risk and represent novel SCDN loci, many with evidence for regulatory function. Moreover, GWAS SNPs in CRYL1, VWF, ADAMTS7, and linc02288 are associated with gene expression in kidney and pathways important to both renal function and SCD biology, supporting the hypothesis that SCDN pathophysiology is distinct from other forms of kidney disease. Together, these findings provide new targets for functional follow-up that could be tested prospectively and potentially used to identify patients with SCD who are at risk, before onset of kidney dysfunction.

Polygenic risk scores and risk stratification in deep vein thrombosis

INTRODUCTION

Deep vein thrombosis (DVT) is a complex disease, where 60 % of risk is due to genetic factors, such as the Factor V Leiden (FVL) variant. DVT is either asymptomatic or manifests with unspecific symptoms and, if left untreated, DVT leads to severe complications. The impact is dramatic and currently, there is still a research gap in DVT prevention. We characterized the genetic contribution and stratified individuals based on genetic makeup to evaluate if it favorably impacts risk prediction.

METHODS

In the UK Biobank (UKB), we performed gene-based association tests using exome sequencing data, as well as a genome-wide association study. We also constructed polygenic risk scores (PRS) in a subset of the cohort (Number of cases = 8231; Number of controls = 276,360) and calculated the impact on the prediction capacity of the PRS in a non-overlapping part of the cohort (Number of cases = 4342; Number of controls = 142,822). We generated additional PRSs that excluded the known causative variants.

RESULTS

We discovered and replicated a novel common variant (rs11604583) near the region where are located the TRIM51 and LRRC55 genes and identified a novel rare variant (rs187725533) located near the CREB3L1 gene, associated with 2.5-fold higher risk of DVT. In one of the PRS models constructed, the top decile of risk is associated with 3.4-fold increased risk, an effect that is 2.3-fold when excluding FVL carriers. In the top PRS decile, the cumulative risk of DVT at the age of 80 years is 10 % for FVL carriers, contraposed to 5 % for non-carriers. The population attributable fractions of having a high polygenic risk on the rate of DVT was estimated to be around 20 % in our cohort.

CONCLUSION

Individuals with a high polygenic risk of DVT, and not only carriers of well-studied variants such as FVL, may benefit from prevention strategies.

Genetics of multiple sclerosis: lessons from polygenicity

Large-scale mapping studies have identified 236 independent genetic variants associated with an increased risk of multiple sclerosis. However, none of these variants are found exclusively in patients with multiple sclerosis. They are located throughout the genome, including 32 independent variants in the MHC and one on the X chromosome. Most variants are non-coding and seem to act through cell-specific effects on gene expression and splicing. The likely functions of these variants implicate both adaptive and innate immune cells in the pathogenesis of multiple sclerosis, provide pivotal biological insight into the causes and mechanisms of multiple sclerosis, and some of the variants implicated in multiple sclerosis also mediate risk of other autoimmune and inflammatory diseases. Genetics offers an approach to showing causality for environmental factors, through Mendelian randomisation. No single variant is necessary or sufficient to cause multiple sclerosis; instead, each increases total risk in an additive manner. This combined contribution from many genetic factors to disease risk, or polygenicity, has important consequences for how we interpret the epidemiology of multiple sclerosis and how we counsel patients on risk and prognosis. Ongoing efforts are focused on increasing cohort sizes, increasing diversity and detailed characterisation of study populations, and translating these associations into an understanding of the biology of multiple sclerosis.

Evaluating the power and limitations of genome-wide association studies in Caenorhabditis elegans

Quantitative genetics in Caenorhabditis elegans seeks to identify naturally segregating genetic variants that underlie complex traits. Genome-wide association studies scan the genome for individual genetic variants that are significantly correlated with phenotypic variation in a population, or quantitative trait loci. Genome-wide association studies are a popular choice for quantitative genetic analyses because the quantitative trait loci that are discovered segregate in natural populations. Despite numerous successful mapping experiments, the empirical performance of genome-wide association study has not, to date, been formally evaluated in C. elegans. We developed an open-source genome-wide association study pipeline called NemaScan and used a simulation-based approach to provide benchmarks of mapping performance in collections of wild C. elegans strains. Simulated trait heritability and complexity determined the spectrum of quantitative trait loci detected by genome-wide association studies. Power to detect smaller-effect quantitative trait loci increased with the number of strains sampled from the C. elegans Natural Diversity Resource. Population structure was a major driver of variation in mapping performance, with populations shaped by recent selection exhibiting significantly lower false discovery rates than populations composed of more divergent strains. We also recapitulated previous genome-wide association studies of experimentally validated quantitative trait variants. Our simulation-based evaluation of performance provides the community with critical context to pursue quantitative genetic studies using the C. elegans Natural Diversity Resource to elucidate the genetic basis of complex traits in C. elegans natural populations.

Meta-analysis of sub-Saharan African studies provides insights into genetic architecture of lipid traits

Genetic associations for lipid traits have identified hundreds of variants with clear differences across European, Asian and African studies. Based on a sub-Saharan-African GWAS for lipid traits in the population cross-sectional AWI-Gen cohort (N = 10,603) we report a novel LDL-C association in the GATB region (P-value=1.56 × 10⁻⁸). Meta-analysis with four other African cohorts (N = 23,718) provides supporting evidence for the LDL-C association with the GATB/FHIP1A region and identifies a novel triglyceride association signal close to the FHIT gene (P-value =2.66 × 10⁻⁸). Our data enable fine-mapping of several well-known lipid-trait loci including LDLR, PMFBP1 and LPA. The transferability of signals detected in two large global studies (GLGC and PAGE) consistently improves with an increase in the size of the African replication cohort. Polygenic risk score analysis shows increased predictive accuracy for LDL-C levels with the narrowing of genetic distance between the discovery dataset and our cohort. Novel discovery is enhanced with the inclusion of African data.

Genetic associations and polygenic scores for lipid traits have low transferability to African individuals. Here, the authors perform a large sub-Sarahan African lipid GWAS and find that larger datasets and better global representation in discovery GWAS help to bridge this gap.

Efficient ancestry and mutation simulation with msprime 1.0

Stochastic simulation is a key tool in population genetics, since the models involved are often analytically intractable and simulation is usually the only way of obtaining ground-truth data to evaluate inferences. Because of this, a large number of specialized simulation programs have been developed, each filling a particular niche, but with largely overlapping functionality and a substantial duplication of effort. Here, we introduce msprime version 1.0, which efficiently implements ancestry and mutation simulations based on the succinct tree sequence data structure and the tskit library. We summarize msprime's many features, and show that its performance is excellent, often many times faster and more memory efficient than specialized alternatives. These high-performance features have been thoroughly tested and validated, and built using a collaborative, open source development model, which reduces duplication of effort and promotes software quality via community engagement.

A Swedish Genome-Wide Haplotype Association Analysis Identifies a Novel Breast Cancer Susceptibility Locus in 8p21.2 and Characterizes Three Loci on Chromosomes 10, 11 and 16

(1) Background: The heritability of breast cancer is partly explained but much of the genetic contribution remains to be identified. Haplotypes are often used as markers of ethnicity as they are preserved through generations. We have previously demonstrated that haplotype analysis, in addition to standard SNP association studies, could give novel and more detailed information on genetic cancer susceptibility. (2) Methods: In order to examine the association of a SNP or a haplotype to breast cancer risk, we performed a genome wide haplotype association study, using sliding window analysis of window sizes 1−25 and 50 SNPs, in 3200 Swedish breast cancer cases and 5021 controls. (3) Results: We identified a novel breast cancer susceptibility locus in 8p21.1 (OR 2.08; p 3.92 × 10−8), confirmed three known loci in 10q26.13, 11q13.3, 16q12.1-2 and further identified novel subloci within these three loci. Altogether 76 risk SNPs, 3302 risk haplotypes of window size 2−25 and 113 risk haplotypes of window size 50 at p < 5 × 10−8 on chromosomes 8, 10, 11 and 16 were identified. In the known loci haplotype analysis reached an OR of 1.48 in overall breast cancer and in familial cases OR 1.68. (4) Conclusions: Analyzing haplotypes, rather than single variants, could detect novel susceptibility loci even in small study populations but the method requires a fairly homogenous study population.

Imputation Performance in Latin American Populations: Improving Rare Variants Representation With the Inclusion of Native American Genomes

Current Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS) rely on genotype imputation to increase statistical power, improve fine-mapping of association signals, and facilitate meta-analyses. Due to the complex demographic history of Latin America and the lack of balanced representation of Native American genomes in current imputation panels, the discovery of locally relevant disease variants is likely to be missed, limiting the scope and impact of biomedical research in these populations. Therefore, the necessity of better diversity representation in genomic databases is a scientific imperative. Here, we expand the 1,000 Genomes reference panel (1KGP) with 134 Native American genomes (1KGP + NAT) to assess imputation performance in Latin American individuals of mixed ancestry. Our panel increased the number of SNPs above the GWAS quality threshold, thus improving statistical power for association studies in the region. It also increased imputation accuracy, particularly in low-frequency variants segregating in Native American ancestry tracts. The improvement is subtle but consistent across countries and proportional to the number of genomes added from local source populations. To project the potential improvement with a higher number of reference genomes, we performed simulations and found that at least 3,000 Native American genomes are needed to equal the imputation performance of variants in European ancestry tracts. This reflects the concerning imbalance of diversity in current references and highlights the contribution of our work to reducing it while complementing efforts to improve global equity in genomic research.

Genotype imputation and polygenic score estimation in northwestern Russian population

Numerous studies demonstrated the lack of transferability of polygenic score (PGS) models across populations and the problem arising from unequal presentation of ancestries across genetic studies. However, even within European ancestry there are ethnic groups that are rarely presented in genetic studies. For instance, Russians, being one of the largest, diverse, and yet understudied group in Europe. In this study, we evaluated the reliability of genotype imputation for the Russian cohort by testing several commonly used imputation reference panels (e.g. HRC, 1000G, HGDP). HRC, in comparison with two other panels, showed the most accurate results based on both imputation accuracy and allele frequency concordance between masked and imputed genotypes. We built polygenic score models based on GWAS results from the UK biobank, measured the explained phenotypic variance in the Russian cohort attributed to polygenic scores for 11 phenotypes, collected in the clinic for each participant, and finally explored the role of allele frequency discordance between the UK biobank and the study cohort in the resulting PGS performance.

The importance of increasing population diversity in genetic studies of type 2 diabetes and related glycaemic traits

Type 2 diabetes has a global prevalence, with epidemiological data suggesting that some populations have a higher risk of developing this disease. However, to date, most genetic studies of type 2 diabetes and related glycaemic traits have been performed in individuals of European ancestry. The same is true for most other complex diseases, largely due to use of 'convenience samples'. Rapid genotyping of large population cohorts and case-control studies from existing collections was performed when the genome-wide association study (GWAS) 'revolution' began, back in 2005. Although global representation has increased in the intervening 15 years, further expansion and inclusion of diverse populations in genetic and genomic studies is still needed. In this review, I discuss the progress made in incorporating multi-ancestry participants in genetic analyses of type 2 diabetes and related glycaemic traits, and associated opportunities and challenges. I also discuss how increased representation of global diversity in genetic and genomic studies is required to fulfil the promise of precision medicine for all.

Advancing drug discovery using the power of the human genome

Human genetics plays an increasingly important role in drug development and population health. Here we review the history of human genetics in the context of accelerating the discovery of therapies, present examples of how human genetics evidence supports successful drug targets, and discuss how polygenic risk scores could be beneficial in various clinical settings. We highlight the value of direct-to-consumer platforms in the era of fast-paced big data biotechnology, and how diverse genetic and health data can benefit society. © 2021 23andMe, Inc. The Journal of Pathology published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. on behalf of The Pathological Society of Great Britain and Ireland.

The evolution of group differences in changing environments

The selection pressures that have shaped the evolution of complex traits in humans remain largely unknown, and in some contexts highly contentious, perhaps above all where they concern mean trait differences among groups. To date, the discussion has focused on whether such group differences have any genetic basis, and if so, whether they are without fitness consequences and arose via random genetic drift, or whether they were driven by selection for different trait optima in different environments. Here, we highlight a plausible alternative: that many complex traits evolve under stabilizing selection in the face of shifting environmental effects. Under this scenario, there will be rapid evolution at the loci that contribute to trait variation, even when the trait optimum remains the same. These considerations underscore the strong assumptions about environmental effects that are required in ascribing trait differences among groups to genetic differences.