HIV incidence and CDC's HIV prevention budget: an exploratory correlational analysis

The Impact of Public Health Funding on Population Health Outcomes

Abstract The objective of this study was to assess the impact of local health department (LHD) expenditures on population health measures using counties as the unit of analysis. An observational research design is used to examine whether public health benefits are associated with higher levels of public health funding. Linear probability multivariate regression models with the use of local level cross-sectional and panel data are employed. A 1-year and a 2-year lag structure are also used to quantify the longer term public health effects of changes in LHD expenditures. Analyses were performed at the county level using local data representing 2120 LHDs, covering 48 US states. Expenditure data from the National Association of County and City Health Officials Profile Surveys and public health measures from County Health Rankings Annual Reports are used. Four public health measures are examined-obesity prevalence, sexually transmitted diseases, diabetes prevalence, and human immunodeficiency virus prevalence. Results from cross-sectional, pooled ordinary least squares, and panel data with fixed effects reveal that increased LHD expenditures per capita were not associated with any of the population health outcomes studied. Multivariate linear regression results using a 1- and 2-year lag structure reveal similar results: funding was not significantly predictive of better public health outcomes. The study design did not control for the potential endogeneity of public health funding. More detailed data and robust research approaches are needed to disentangle the effect and effectively answer whether increased public funding translates to improved population health.

Differential Association of HIV Funding With HIV Mortality by Race/Ethnicity, United States, 1999-2017

OBJECTIVE

Federal funds have been spent to reduce the disproportionate effects of HIV/AIDS on racial/ethnic minority groups in the United States. We investigated the association between federal domestic HIV funding and age-adjusted HIV death rates by race/ethnicity in the United States during 1999-2017.

METHODS

We analyzed HIV funding data from the Kaiser Family Foundation by federal fiscal year (FFY) and US age-adjusted death rates (AADRs) by race/ethnicity (Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic black, and Asian/Pacific Islander and American Indian/Alaska Native [API+AI/AN]) from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention WONDER detailed mortality files. We fit joinpoint regression models to estimate the annual percentage change (APC), average APC, and changes in AADRs per billion US dollars in HIV funding, with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). For 19 data points, the number of joinpoints ranged from 0 to 4 on the basis of rules set by the program or by the user. A Monte Carlo permutation test indicated significant (P < .05) changes at joinpoints, and 2-sided t tests indicated significant APCs in AADRs.

RESULTS

Domestic HIV funding increased from $10.7 billion in FFY 1999 to $26.3 billion in FFY 2017, but AADRs decreased at different rates for each racial/ethnic group. The average rate of change in AADR per US billion dollars was -9.4% (95% CI, -10.9% to -7.8%) for Hispanic residents, -7.8% (95% CI, -9.0% to -6.6%) for non-Hispanic black residents, -6.7% (95% CI, -9.3% to -4.0%) for non-Hispanic white residents, and -5.2% (95% CI, -7.8% to -2.5%) for non-Hispanic API+AI/AN residents.

CONCLUSIONS

Increased domestic HIV funding was associated with faster decreases in age-adjusted HIV death rates for Hispanic and non-Hispanic black residents than for residents in other racial/ethnic groups. Increasing US HIV funding could be associated with decreasing future racial/ethnic disparities in the rate of HIV-related deaths.

The Politics of Prevention: Lessons from the Neglected History of US HIV/AIDS Policy

The history of government action on HIV/AIDS has much to teach us about the dynamics and possibilities of US public health policy, but it has been insufficiently studied by social scientists of the epidemic. This article draws on a large set of original interviews with policy makers, thousands of news articles, and extensive documentation to reconstruct the history of three areas of debate and decision making about HIV prevention since 1990: needle exchange, HIV testing, and sex education for at-risk groups. These histories illuminate three key lessons. First, scientific evidence has less power to drive public health policy in the United States than in the United Kingdom, which is used as a comparison case to contextualize US choices within a broader range of options. Second, moral concerns weigh so heavily in the United States that a publicly articulated moral argument can countermand the dictates of solid scientific evidence, the voices of experts, and practical considerations to push public health policy in entirely oppositional directions. Third, having the ear of the presidential administration is usually a necessary-although not always sufficient-condition for the success of advocates trying to move US policy in the public health-indicated direction.

Economic Evaluation of Community-Based HIV Prevention Programs in Ontario: Evidence of Effectiveness in Reducing HIV Infections and Health Care Costs

Investments in community-based HIV prevention programs in Ontario over the past two and a half decades are assumed to have had an impact on the HIV epidemic, but they have never been systematically evaluated. To help close this knowledge gap, we conducted a macro-level evaluation of investment in Ontario HIV prevention programs from the payer perspective. Our results showed that, from 1987 to 2011, province-wide community-based programs helped to avert a total of 16,672 HIV infections, saving Ontario's health care system approximately $6.5 billion Canadian dollars (range 4.8-7.5B). We also showed that these community-based HIV programs were cost-saving: from 2005 to 2011, every dollar invested in these programs saved about $5. This study is an important first step in understanding the impact of investing in community-based HIV prevention programs in Ontario and recognizing the impact that these programs have had in reducing HIV infections and health care costs.

Trends in Injection Drug Use Among High School Students, U.S., 1995-2013

INTRODUCTION

Injection drug use is the most frequently reported risk behavior among new cases of hepatitis C virus infection, and recent reports of increases in infection are of great concern in many communities. This study assessed the prevalence and trends in injection drug use among U.S. high school students.

METHODS

Data were from CDC's Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System, which collects information on health risk behaviors at the national, state, and large urban school district levels. Analyses were conducted in 2014.

RESULTS

In 2013, 1.7% of high school students nationwide had ever injected any illegal drug. Nationwide, ever injecting any illegal drug did not change significantly from 1995 to 2013, except among black non-Hispanic students. For this subgroup, both a significant linear increase from 1995 to 2013 and a significant quadratic trend were observed, with injection drug use increasing from 1995 to 2009 and decreasing from 2009 to 2013. Significant linear increases in injection drug use occurred in five states (Arkansas, Hawaii, Maine, Maryland, and New York) and six large urban school districts (Baltimore, Memphis, Miami-Dade County, New York City, Philadelphia, and Seattle). Significant linear decreases occurred in three states (Massachusetts, South Dakota, and West Virginia). Both a significant linear increase and quadratic trend were observed in Maine; quadratic trends were observed in Tennessee, Utah, and Palm Beach County, Florida.

CONCLUSIONS

In some geographic areas and population groups, an increasing or high frequency of injection drug use was found among high school students, who should be targeted for prevention.

Methods in public health services and systems research: a systematic review

CONTEXT

Public Health Services and Systems Research (PHSSR) is concerned with evaluating the organization, financing, and delivery of public health services and their impact on public health. The strength of the current PHSSR evidence is somewhat dependent on the methods used to examine the field. Methods used in PHSSR articles, reports, and other documents were reviewed to assess their methodologic strengths and challenges in light of PHSSR goals.

EVIDENCE ACQUISITION

A total of 364 documents from the PHSSR library met the inclusion criteria as empirical and based in the U.S. After additional exclusions, 327 of these were analyzed.

EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS

A detailed codebook was used to classify articles in terms of (1) study design; (2) sampling; (3) instrumentation; (4) data collection; (5) data analysis; and (6) study validity. Inter-coder reliability was assessed for the codebook; once it was found reliable, the available empirical documents were coded.

CONCLUSIONS

Although there has been a dramatic increase in the amount of published PHSSR recently, methods used remain primarily cross-sectional and descriptive. Moreover, although appropriate for exploratory and foundational work in a new field, these approaches are limiting progress toward some PHSSR goals. Recommendations are given to advance and strengthen the methods used in PHSSR to better meet the goals and challenges facing the field.

Evidence links increases in public health spending to declines in preventable deaths

Public health encompasses a broad array of programs designed to prevent the occurrence of disease and injury within communities. But policy makers have little evidence to draw on when determining the value of investments in these program activities, which currently account for less than 5 percent of US health spending. We examine whether changes in spending by local public health agencies over a thirteen-year period contributed to changes in rates of community mortality from preventable causes of death, including infant mortality and deaths due to cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and cancer. We found that mortality rates fell between 1.1 percent and 6.9 percent for each 10 percent increase in local public health spending. These results suggest that increased public health investments can produce measurable improvements in health, especially in low-resource communities. However, more money by itself is unlikely to generate significant and sustainable health gains; improvements in public health practices are needed as well.

A Practical Framework for Navigating Ethical Challenges in Collaborative Community Research

To effectively mobilize community-based organizations (CBOs) and international non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in research, important ethical issues must be addressed. A memorandum of understanding (MOU), providing a framework and a tool to be used for establishing effective community-research partnerships, was developed by the Community Collaboration Core (CCC) of the HIV Center for Clinical and Behavioral Studies. Aims of the CCC include: (1) Initiating and sustaining successful partnerships in HIV prevention research in areas of sexuality, gender, mental health, and of mutual benefit to communities; (2) Advancing the science of collaboration among researchers, practitioners, and government in HIV prevention. Developed and assessed over a two-year period by researchers, CBO/NGO and public health representatives, this MOU can be used by potential research and community partners to address the most important issues early in a collaborative research project. Clarifying essential roles, responsibilities, and relationships, establishing trust and transparency in that process, can guide collaborators in planning the important steps for beginning and sustaining an ethical and successful research project.

Apparent declines in the global HIV transmission rate

Estimates of global and regional HIV incidence and prevalence are helpful for gauging the state of the epidemic. However, they do not contain as much information as the HIV transmission rate for judging the potential speed of HIV spread. The HIV transmission rate can be defined as follows: for every 100 persons living with HIV, the number of HIV infections transmitted to seronegative partners in one year. Here, we estimate the transmission rate for the global epidemic for the years 2001 and 2007, and for 10 major international regions for the year 2007. The transmission rate is calculated as incidence divided by prevalence, and the quotient then multiplied by 100. Previously published and publicly available, the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS estimates of HIV incidence and prevalence at the global and regional levels were utilized. Between 2001 and 2007, the global HIV transmission rate dropped from 10.2 to 8.2, a decrease of 19.6% in six years time. The regional estimates for 2007 ranged from 3.7 in Western and Central Europe, to 10.5 in the Middle East and Northern Africa, to 17.6 in Oceania. The global transmission rate for 2007 of 8.2 indicates that 91.8% or more of persons living with HIV are not transmitting to other persons in a given year. The 19.6% decrease in HIV transmission rate between 2001 and 2007 appears to indicate some success in global HIV prevention efforts. The range of regional estimates helps to identify areas with the potential for rapidly growing epidemics, even if the raw numbers of new infections and prevalence are low. I believe the transmission rate to be a useful statistic and recommend its further adoption.

Public health delivery systems: evidence, uncertainty, and emerging research needs

The authors review empirical studies published between 1990 and 2007 on the topics of public health organization, financing, staffing, and service delivery. A summary is provided of what is currently known about the attributes of public health delivery systems that influence their performance and outcomes. This review also identifies unanswered questions, highlighting areas where new research is needed. Existing studies suggest that economies of scale and scope exist in the delivery of public health services, and that key organizational and governance characteristics of public health agencies may explain differences in service delivery across communities. Financial resources and staffing characteristics vary widely across public health systems and have expected associations with service delivery and outcomes. Numerous gaps and uncertainties are identified regarding the mechanisms through which organizational, financial, and workforce characteristics influence the effectiveness and efficiency of public health service delivery. This review suggests that new research is needed to evaluate the effects of ongoing changes in delivery system structure, financing, and staffing.

Evidence-based efforts to prevent HIV infection: an overview of current status and future challenges

Since the early 1990s, the incidence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in the United States has been approximately 40,000 cases per year. Because this rate has not decreased substantially in >15 years, the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of programs to prevent HIV infection have come under intensifying examination. In this article, several issues are addressed, including the efficacy of HIV prevention strategies at the national level in the United States, the status of the goals from the current (albeit expired) national HIV prevention plan, the role of opt-out HIV testing in a new comprehensive national HIV prevention plan, and a review of evidence-based prevention strategies that should be emphasized in a new plan.

HIV prevention services received at health care and HIV test providers by young men who have sex with men: an examination of racial disparities

We investigated whether there were racial/ethnic differences among young men who have sex with men (MSM) in their use of, perceived importance of, receipt of, and satisfaction with HIV prevention services received at health care providers (HCP) and HIV test providers (HTP) that explain racial disparities in HIV prevalence. Young men, aged 23 to 29 years, were interviewed and tested for HIV at randomly sampled MSM-identified venues in six U.S. cities from 1998 through 2000. Analyses were restricted to five U.S. cities that enrolled 50 or more black or Hispanic MSM. Among the 2,424 MSM enrolled, 1,522 (63%) reported using a HCP, and 1,268 (52%) reported having had an HIV test in the year prior to our interview. No racial/ethnic differences were found in using a HCP or testing for HIV. Compared with white MSM, black and Hispanic MSM were more likely to believe that HIV prevention services are important [respectively, AOR, 95% confidence interval (CI): 3.0, 1.97 to 4.51 and AOR, 95% CI: 2.7, 1.89 to 3.79], and were more likely to receive prevention services at their HCP (AOR, 95% CI: 2.5, 1.72 to 3.71 and AOR, 95% CI: 1.7, 1.18 to 2.41) and as likely to receive counseling services at their HTP. Blacks were more likely to be satisfied with the prevention services received at their HCP (AOR, 95% CI: 1.7, 1.14 to 2.65). Compared to white MSM, black and Hispanic MSM had equal or greater use of, perceived importance of, receipt of, and satisfaction with HIV prevention services. Differential experience with HIV prevention services does not explain the higher HIV prevalence among black and Hispanic MSM.

Behavioral interventions to reduce risk for sexual transmission of HIV among men who have sex with men

BACKGROUND

Men who have sex with men (MSM) remain at great risk for HIV infection. Program planners and policy makers need descriptions of interventions and quantitative estimates of intervention effects to make informed decisions concerning prevention funding and research. The number of intervention strategies for MSM that have been examined with strong research designs has increased substantially in the past few years.

OBJECTIVES

1. To locate and describe outcome studies evaluating the effects of behavioral HIV prevention interventions for MSM.2. To summarize the effectiveness of these interventions in reducing unprotected anal sex.3. To identify study characteristics associated with effectiveness.4. To identify gaps and indicate future research, policy, and practice needs.

SEARCH STRATEGY

We searched electronic databases, current journals, manuscripts submitted by researchers, bibliographies of relevant articles, conference proceedings, and other reviews for published and unpublished reports from 1988 through December 2007. We also asked researchers working in HIV prevention about new and ongoing studies.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Studies were considered in scope if they examined the effects of behavioral interventions aimed at reducing risk for HIV or STD transmission among MSM. We reviewed studies in scope for criteria of outcome relevance (measurement of at least one of a list of behavioral or biologic outcomes, e.g., unprotected sex or incidence of HIV infections) and methodologic rigor (randomized controlled trials or certain strong quasi-experimental designs with comparison groups).

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We used fixed and random effects models to summarize rate ratios (RR) comparing intervention and control groups with respect to count outcomes (number of occasions of or partners for unprotected anal sex), and corresponding prevalence ratios (PR) for dichotomous outcomes (any unprotected anal sex vs. none). We used published formulas to convert effect sizes and their variances for count and dichotomous outcomes where necessary. We accounted for intraclass correlation (ICC) in community-level studies and adjusted for baseline conditions in all studies. We present separate results by intervention format (small group, individual, or community-level) and by type of intervention delivered to the comparison group (minimal or no HIV prevention in the comparison condition versus standard or other HIV prevention in the comparison condition). We examine rate ratios stratified according to characteristics of participants, design, implementation, and intervention content. For small group and individual-level interventions we used a stepwise selection process to identify a multivariable model of predictors of reduction in occasions of or partners for unprotected anal sex. We used funnel plots to examine publication bias, and Q (a chi-squared statistic with degrees of freedom = number of interventions minus 1) to test for heterogeneity.

MAIN RESULTS

We found 44 studies evaluating 58 interventions with 18,585 participants. Formats included 26 small group interventions, 21 individual-level interventions, and 11 community-level interventions. Sixteen of the 58 interventions focused on HIV-positives. The 40 interventions that were measured against minimal to no HIV prevention intervention reduced occasions of or partners for unprotected anal sex by 27% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 15% to 37%). The other 18 interventions reduced unprotected anal sex by 17% beyond changes observed in standard or other interventions (CI = 5% to 27%). Intervention effects were statistically homogeneous, and no independent variable was statistically significantly associated with intervention effects at alpha=.05. However, a multivariable model selected by backward stepwise elimination identified four study characteristics associated with reduction in occasions of or partners for unprotected anal sex among small group and individual-level interventions at alpha=.10. The most favorable reductions in episodes of or partners for unprotected anal sex (33% to 35% decreases) were observed among studies with count outcomes, those with shorter intervention spans (<=1 month), those with better retention in the intervention condition than in the comparison condition, and those with minimal to no HIV prevention intervention delivered to the comparison condition. Because there were only 11 community-level studies we did not search for a multivariable model for community-level interventions. In stratified analyses including only one variable at a time, the greatest reductions (40% to 54% decreases) in number of episodes of or partners for unprotected anal sex among community-level interventions were observed among studies where groups were assigned randomly rather than by convenience, studies with shorter recall periods and longer follow-up, studies with more than 25% non-gay identifying MSM, studies in which at least 90% of participants were white, and studies in which the intervention addressed development of personal skills.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Behavioral interventions reduce self-reported unprotected anal sex among MSM. These results indicate that HIV prevention for this population can work and should be supported. Results of previous studies provide a benchmark for expectations in new studies. Meta-analysis can inform future design and implementation in terms of sample size, target populations, settings, goals for process measures, and intervention content. When effects differ by design variables, which are deliberately selected and planned, awareness of these characteristics may be beneficial to future designs. Researchers designing future small group and individual-level studies should keep in mind that to date, effects of the greatest magnitude have been observed in studies that used count outcomes and a shorter intervention span (up to 1 month). Among small group and individual-level studies, effects were also greatest when the comparison condition included minimal to no HIV prevention content. Nevertheless, statistically significant favorable effects were also seen when the comparison condition included standard or other HIV prevention content. Researchers choosing the latter option for new studies should plan for larger sample sizes based on the smaller expected net intervention effect noted above. When effects differ by implementation variables, which become evident as the study is conducted but are not usually selected or planned, caution may be advised so that future studies can reduce bias. Because intervention effects were somewhat stronger (though not statistically significantly so) in studies with a greater attrition in the comparison condition, differential retention may be a threat to validity. Extra effort should be given to retaining participants in comparison conditions. Among community-level interventions, intervention effects were strongest among studies with random assignment of groups or communities. Therefore the inclusion of studies where assignment of groups or communities was by convenience did not exaggerate the summary effect. The greater effectiveness of interventions including more than 25% non-gay identifying MSM suggests that when they can be reached, these men may be more responsive than gay-identified men to risk reduction efforts. Non-gay identified MSM may have had less exposure to previous prevention messages, so their initial exposure may have a greater impact. The greater effectiveness of interventions that include efforts to promote personal skills such as keeping condoms available and behavioral self-management indicates that such content merits strong consideration in development and delivery of new interventions for MSM. And the finding that interventions were most effective for majority white populations underscores the critical need for effective interventions for MSM of African and Latino descent. Further research measuring the incidence of HIV and other STDs is needed. Because most studies were conducted among mostly white men in the US and Europe, more evaluations of interventions are needed for African American and Hispanic MSM as well as MSM in the developing world. More research is also needed to further clarify which behavioral strategies (e.g., reducing unprotected anal sex, having oral sex instead of anal sex, reducing number of partners, avoiding serodiscordant partners, strategic positioning, or reducing anal sex even with condom use) are most effective in reducing transmission among MSM, the messages most effective in promoting these behaviors, and the methods and settings in which these messages can be most effectively delivered.

Decreasing age disparities in syphilis and gonorrhea incidence rates in the United States, 1981--2005

BACKGROUND

Compared to older age groups, teenagers and young adults in the United States are at high risk of acquiring sexually transmitted diseases (STDs). Although the disparity in STD rates across age groups is well documented, changes in the degree of disparity in STD rates across age groups over time have not been examined in detail.

METHODS

We examined age-, sex-, and race-specific incidence rates of syphilis and gonorrhea in the United States (excluding New York owing to incomplete age- and race-specific data) from 1981 to 2005. STD rates in younger age groups (ages 15-29 years) were compared to STD rates in older age groups (ages 40-54 years) for each year over the 25-year period. We used regression analyses to examine the trend in the age rate ratio (STD rate in the younger age group divided by STD rate in the older age group) over time, adjusting for autocorrelation.

RESULTS

The age disparity in syphilis and gonorrhea declined from 1981 to 2005. The estimated annual decline in the age rate ratio was 5.3% for syphilis and 2.0% for gonorrhea for all races overall (P <0.01). Overall, the age disparity in STD rates was more pronounced for females than males.

CONCLUSIONS

Future research is needed to clarify the main determinants of the relative decline in STD rates in younger persons and to inform programmatic responses to the changing age disparity in STD rates.

The Successes and Failures of Global Health Organizations: The World Health Organization, UNAIDS, Médicins sans Frontières and PEPFAR

Chapter 7 examined the operations of multilateral, bilateral and private donors in financing the fight against HIV/AIDS. This chapter examines the operations of five organizations that focus more directly on addressing HIV/AIDS health issues on the ground: the World Health Organization; UNAIDS; Médicins sans Frontières (Doctors without Borders); the US President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR); and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The first two form part of the United Nations (UN) system, the third is a private, non-profit non-governmental organization that relies on volunteers to deliver medical services and products in developing countries that are facing health crises and the fourth and fifth are a US government program and agency, respectively. The UN has won the Nobel Peace Prize a number of times: UN Middle East mediator (1950); UNHCR, the UN refugee agency (1954); UN Secretary-General (1961); UNICEF (1965); ILO, the UN labor agency (1969); UNHCR, the UN refugee agency (1981); UN peacekeeping (1988); and UN Secretary-General and the UN, jointly (2001). There are several bodies inside the UN that also have won the Nobel Peace Prize, such as the International Atomic Energy Agency (2005) and Director Mohamed El-Baradei and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007). In addition, the prime minister of Canada, Lester Bowles Pearson, won Nobel Peace Prize for his work with the UN (1957). Médicins sans Frontières has won the Nobel Peace Prize once (1999)

Costs and consequences of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's recommendations for opt-out HIV testing

BACKGROUND

The United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently recommended opt-out HIV testing (testing without the need for risk assessment and counseling) in all health care encounters in the US for persons 13-64 years old. However, the overall costs and consequences of these recommendations have not been estimated before. In this paper, I estimate the costs and public health impact of opt-out HIV testing relative to testing accompanied by client-centered counseling, and relative to a more targeted counseling and testing strategy.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Basic methods of scenario and cost-effectiveness analysis were used, from a payer's perspective over a one-year time horizon. I found that for the same programmatic cost of US$864,207,288, targeted counseling and testing services (at a 1% HIV seropositivity rate) would be preferred to opt-out testing: targeted services would newly diagnose more HIV infections (188,170 versus 56,940), prevent more HIV infections (14,553 versus 3,644), and do so at a lower gross cost per infection averted (US$59,383 versus US$237,149). While the study is limited by uncertainty in some input parameter values, the findings were robust across a variety of assumptions about these parameter values (including the estimated HIV seropositivity rate in the targeted counseling and testing scenario).

CONCLUSIONS

While opt-out testing may be able to newly diagnose over 56,000 persons living with HIV in one year, abandoning client-centered counseling has real public health consequences in terms of HIV infections that could have been averted. Further, my analyses indicate that even when HIV seropositivity rates are as low as 0.3%, targeted counseling and testing performs better than opt-out testing on several key outcome variables. These analytic findings should be kept in mind as HIV counseling and testing policies are debated in the US.