Under-5-Years Child Mortality Due to Congenital Anomalies: A Retrospective Study in Urban and Rural China in 1996-2013

Trend of Mortality Due to Congenital Anomalies in Children Younger Than 5 Years in Eastern China, 2012-2021: Surveillance Data Analysis

BACKGROUND

As one of the leading causes of child mortality, deaths due to congenital anomalies (CAs) have been a prominent obstacle to meet Sustainable Development Goal 3.2.

OBJECTIVE

We conducted this study to understand the death burden and trend of under-5 CA mortality (CAMR) in Zhejiang, one of the provinces with the best medical services and public health foundations in Eastern China.

METHODS

We used data retrieved from the under-5 mortality surveillance system in Zhejiang from 2012 to 2021. CAMR by sex, residence, and age group for each year was calculated and standardized according to 2020 National Population Census sex- and residence-specific live birth data in China. Poisson regression models were used to estimate the annual average change rate (AACR) of CAMR and to obtain the rate ratio between subgroups after adjusting for sex, residence, and age group when appropriate.

RESULTS

From 2012 to 2021, a total of 1753 children died from CAs, and the standardized CAMR declined from 121.2 to 62.6 per 100,000 live births with an AACR of -9% (95% CI -10.7% to -7.2%; P<.001). The declining trend was also observed in female and male children, urban and rural children, and neonates and older infants, and the AACRs were -9.7%, -8.5%, -8.5%, -9.2%, -12%, and -6.3%, respectively (all P<.001). However, no significant reduction was observed in children aged 1-4 years (P=.22). Generally, the CAMR rate ratios for male versus female children, rural versus urban children, older infants versus neonates, and older children versus neonates were 1.18 (95% CI 1.08-1.30; P<.001), 1.20 (95% CI 1.08-1.32; P=.001), 0.66 (95% CI 0.59-0.73; P<.001), and 0.20 (95% CI 0.17-0.24; P<.001), respectively. Among all broad CA groups, circulatory system malformations, mainly deaths caused by congenital heart diseases, accounted for 49.4% (866/1753) of deaths and ranked first across all years, although it declined yearly with an AACR of -9.8% (P<.001). Deaths due to chromosomal abnormalities tended to grow in recent years, although the AACR was not significant (P=.90).

CONCLUSIONS

CAMR reduced annually, with cardiovascular malformations ranking first across all years in Zhejiang, China. Future research and practices should focus more on the prevention, early detection, long-term management of CAs and comprehensive support for families with children with CAs to improve their survival chances.

Trends, influencing factors and prediction analysis of under-five and maternal mortality rates in China from 1991 to 2020

Introduction

Under-five mortality rate (U5MR) and maternal mortality rate (MMR) are important indicators for evaluating the quality of perinatal health and child health services in a country or region, and are research priorities for promoting maternal and infant safety and maternal and child health. This paper aimed to analysis and predict the trends of U5MR and MMR in China, to explore the impact of social health services and economic factors on U5MR and MMR, and to provide a basis for relevant departments to formulate relevant policies and measures.

Methods

The JoinPoint regression model was established to conduct time trend analysis and describe the trend of neonatal mortality rate (NMR), infant mortality rate (IMR), U5MR and MMR in China from 1991 to 2020. The linear mixed effect model was used to assess the fixed effects of maternal health care services and socioeconomic factors on U5MR and MMR were explored, with year as a random effect to minimize the effect of collinearity. Auto regressive integrated moving average models (ARIMA) were built to predict U5MR and MMR from 2021 to 2025.

Results

The NMR, IMR, U5MR and MMR from 1991 to 2020 in China among national, urban and rural areas showed continuous downward trends. The NMR, IMR, U5MR and MMR were significantly negatively correlated with gross domestic product (GDP), the proportion of the total health expenditure (THE) to GDP, system management rate, prenatal care rate, post-natal visit rate and hospital delivery rate. The predicted values of national U5MR from 2021 to 2025 were 7.3 ‰, 7.2 ‰, 7.1 ‰, 7.1 ‰ and 7.2 ‰ and the predicted values of national MMR were 13.8/100000, 12.1/100000, 10.6/100000, 9.6/100000 and 8.3/100000.

Conclusion

China has made great achievements in reducing the U5MR and MMR. It is necessary for achieving the goals of Healthy China 2030 by promoting the equalization of basic public health services and further optimizing the allocation of government health resources. China's experience in reducing U5MR and MMR can be used as a reference for developing countries to realize the SDGs.

Trends in the disease burden of congenital heart disease in China over the past three decades

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the disease burden of congenital heart disease (CHD) in China from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

Using the data from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019, the incidence, age-standardized incidence rates, the mortality, age-standardized mortality rates, disability-adjusted life year (DALY) and age-standardized DALY rates of CHD were calculated. Time trend analysis of disease burden-related indicators was analyzed by Joinpoint regression model. Age-period-cohort model was used to describe age, period, and birth cohort effects in CHD mortality population. The relationship between age-standardized incidence, mortality, DALY rates of congenital heart disease and human development index (HDI) were analyzed by Pearson correlation.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2019, the mean annual percentage change (AAPC) in age-standardized incidence rate, mortality rate and DALY rate of CHD in China were -0.1%(95% CI: -0.7%-0.4%)、-3.5%(95% CI: -3.7%--3.2%) and -3.5%(95% CI: -3.7%--3.2%), respectively. CHD usually occurred in the first year of life. The mean incidence rate at birth was 2497.9/100 000, and the mean incidence rate under 1 year of age was 2626.6/100 000. During the period of 1995-2000, the incidence rate in newborn and <1 year children showed an exponential upward trend, then it remained a steady downward trend. However, there was an exponential increase in <1 year children during 2010-2013 and 2014-2015, followed by an exponential decrease to the lowest value in the last three decades. The mortality of CHD tended to decrease with age, with mortality of 101.67/100 000 for children under 5 years of age and a decrease after 5 years of age. However, there was a transient increase in mortality in age group 55-<60. From 1995 to 2019, the relative risk of death of patients with CHD showed a downward trend. Compared with 1995-1999, the rate ratio of death decreased by 24% in 2015-2019. Such downward trend was also observed in the birth cohort after 1945. Compared with the 1945-1949 birth cohort, the rate ratio of death for patients with CHD decreased by 75% in the 2015-2019 birth cohort. When HDI<0.58 (before 1999), the age-standardized incidence of CHD was positively correlated with HDI ( r=0.74, P<0.05). When HDI≥0.58 (after 1999), the age-standardized incidence of CHD was negatively correlated with HDI ( r=-0.76, P<0.01). The age-standardized mortality and DALY rates were negatively correlated with HDI ( r=-0.95 and -0.93, both P<0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

During 1990 to 1999, the incidence of CHD increases and is positively correlated with the social development. During 1999 to 2019, the incidence of CHD decreases and is negatively correlated with the social development. The disease burden of CHD decreases and is negatively correlated with the social development. Some progress has been made in the field of prevention and control of CHD, but the disease burden remains high among younger population in China.

Does air pollution contribute to urban-rural disparity in male lung cancer diseases in China?

It remains unknown whether exposure to ambient air pollution can be a mediator linking socioeconomic indicator to health outcome. The present study aims to examine the mediation effect of PM2.5 air pollution on the association between urban-rural division and the incidence (mortality) rate of male lung cancer. We performed a nationwide analysis in 353 counties (districts) of China between 2006 and 2015. A structural equation model was developed to determine the mediation effect of exposure to PM2.5. We also tested whether the findings of the mediation effect of exposure to PM2.5 are sensitive to the controls of smoking factors and additional air pollutant, and PM2.5 exposures with different lag structures. According to the results, we found that exposure to PM2.5 significantly mediated the association between urban-rural division and the incidence rate of male lung cancer. Specifically, there were significant associations between urban-rural division, exposure to PM2.5, and the incidence rate of male lung cancer, with PM2.5 exposure accounting for 29.80% of total urban-rural difference in incidence rates of male lung cancer. A similar pattern of results was observed for the mortality rate of male lung cancer. That is, there was a significant mediation effect by PM2.5 on the association of the mortality rate with urban-rural division. The findings of exposure to PM2.5 as a mediator were robust in the three sensitivity analyses. In conclusion, urban-rural difference in exposures to PM2.5 may be a potential factor that contributes to urban-rural disparity in male lung cancer diseases in China. The findings inform that air pollution management and control may be effective measures to alleviate the great difference in male lung cancer diseases between urban and rural areas in China.

Global, regional, and national time trends in mortality for congenital heart disease, 1990-2019: An age-period-cohort analysis for the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study

BACKGROUND

Congenital heart disease (CHD) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality from birth defects worldwide. We report an overview of trends in CHD mortality in 204 countries and territories over the past 30 years and associations with age, period, and birth cohort.

METHODS

Cause-specific CHD mortality estimates were derived from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. We utilised an age-period-cohort model to estimate overall annual percentage changes in mortality (net drifts), annual percentage changes from 0 to 4 to 65-69 years (local drifts), period and cohort relative risks (period/cohort effects) between 1990 and 2019. This approach allows for the examination and differentiation of age, period, and cohort effects in the mortality trends, with the potential to identify disparities and treatment gaps in cardiac care.

FINDINGS

CHD is the leading cause of deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in those under 20 years. Global CHD deaths in 2019 were 217,000 (95% uncertainty interval 177,000-262,000). There were 129 countries with at least 50 deaths. India, China, Pakistan, and Nigeria had the highest mortality, accounting for 39.7% of deaths globally. Between 1990 and 2019, the net drift of CHD mortality ranged from -2.41% per year (95% confidence interval [CI] -2.55, -2.67) in high Socio-demographic Index (SDI) countries to -0.62% per year (95% CI: -0.82, -0.42) in low-SDI countries. Globally, there was an emerging transition in the age distribution of deaths from paediatric to adult populations, except for an increasing trend of mortality in those aged 10-34 years in Mexico and Pakistan. During the past 30 years, favourable mortality reductions were generally found in most high-SDI countries like South Korea (net drift = -4.0% [95% CI -4.8 to -3.1] per year) and the United States (-2.3% [-2.5 to -2.0]), and also in many middle-SDI countries like Brazil (-2.7% [-3.1 to 2.4]) and South Africa (-2.5% [-3.2 to -1.8]). However, 52 of 129 countries had either increasing trends (net drifts ≥0.0%) or stagnated reductions (≥-0.5%) in mortality. The relative risk of mortality generally showed improving trends over time and in successively younger birth cohorts amongst high- and high-middle-SDI countries, with the exceptions of Saudi Arabia and Kazakhstan. 14 middle-SDI countries such as Ecuador and Mexico, and 16 low-middle-SDI countries including India and 20 low-SDI countries including Pakistan, had unfavourable or worsening risks for recent periods and birth cohorts.

INTERPRETATION

CHD mortality is a useful and accessible indicator of trends in the provision of congenital cardiac care both in early childhood and across later life. Improvements in the treatment of CHD should reduce the risk for successively younger cohorts and shift the risk for all age groups over time. Although there were gains in CHD mortality globally over the past three decades, unfavourable period and cohort effects were found in many countries, raising questions about adequacy of their health care for CHD patients across all age groups. These failings carry significant implications for the likelihood of achieving the Sustainable Development Goal targets for under-5 years and NCD mortality.

FUNDING

Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (81525002, 31971048, 82073573 to ZZ and HZ), Shanghai Outstanding Medical Academic Leader program (2019LJ22 to HZ), and Collaborative Innovation Program of Shanghai Municipal Health Commission (2020CXJQ01 to HZ), the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation for the Global Burden of Disease Project (to NJK) and NHMRC fellowship administered through the University of Melbourne (to GCP).

Epidemiologic View and Spatial Analysis of the Mortality of Children under 5 Years of Age in Isfahan Province in 2011-2016

Background

Children's mortality rate reflects the health level of the community. Therefore, accurate mapping of child mortality is one of the most important ways to reduce this rate. The purpose of this study was to investigate the mortality rate of children under 5 in Isfahan province in 2011-2016.

Methods

In this analytical cross-sectional study, all mortalities of children under 5 of Isfahan province related to Child Death Care System Program during 2011-2016 were studied. Mortality rate of children was calculated. Relationship between variables [demographic characteristics, place of death (urban/rural), and underlying cause of death] and child mortality was analyzed using Chi-square test. Mortality rate in the cities of Isfahan province was plotted on a geographical map.

Results

Whole number of mortalities of children under 5 was 5247 cases. Most of the mortalities (60.1%) were occurred in neonatal. Mortality rate was higher in boys than girls (12.6 vs. 11.1 per 1000 live births) (P < 0.001); "mortality rate in non-Iranians who live in Iran was more than that of Iranians (21.4 vs. 11.5 per 1000 live birth) (P < 0.001) and rural areas more than urban areas (15.2 vs. 11.4 per thousand live births) (P < 0.001)." Certain conditions originating in the perinatal period were reported as the greatest causes of death (45.9%). Congenital malformations (27.4%) and external causes of morbidity and mortality (6.7%) were the second and third causes of death. Fereidun Shahr had the highest U5MR and Khansar had the lowest U5MR.

Conclusions

Considering the major contribution of neonatal to the death of children under 5 and also the most important causes of death, interventions such as preventing early delivery, genetic counseling in high-risk couples, and parent training for accident prevention can play an effective role in reducing child mortality.

Trends and seasonality in cause-specific mortality among children under 15 years in Guangzhou, China, 2008-2018

BACKGROUND

This study analyzed the trends and seasonality in mortality among children aged 0-14 years in Guangzhou, China during 2008-2018. Understanding the epidemiology of this public health problem can guide policy development for children mortality prevention.

METHODS

A population-based epidemiological retrospective study was conducted. Seven thousand two hundred sixty-five individual data of children mortality were obtained from the Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The Poisson regression was used to quantify the annual average reduction rate and the difference in mortality rate between sex and age groups. Incidence ratio with 95% confidence interval (CI) was estimated to determine the temperaol variations in mortality by month, season, school term, day of the week and between holidays and other days.

RESULTS

Between 2008 and 2018, the children mortality rate in Guangzhou decreased from 54.0 to 34.3 per 100,000 children, with an annual reduction rate of 4.6% (95% CI: 1.1%-8.1%), especially the under-5 mortality rate decreased by 8.3% (95% CI: 4.8%-11.6%) per year. Decline trends varied by causes of death, even with an upward trend for the mortality of asphyxia and neurological diseases. The risk of death among males children was 1.33 times (95% CI: 1.20-1.47) of that of females. The distribution of causes of death differed by age group. Maternal and perinatal, congenital and pneumonia were the top three causes of death in infants and cancer accounted for 17% of deaths in children aged 1-14 years. Moreover, the injury-related mortality showed significant temporal variations with higher risk during the weekend. And there was a summer peak for drowning and a winter peak for asphyxia.

CONCLUSIONS

Guangzhou has made considerable progress in reducing mortality over the last decade. The findings of characteristics of children mortality would provide important information for the development and implementation of integrated interventions targeted specific age groups and causes of death.

All-cause child mortality in minority and non-minority areas in Sichuan Province in Western China, 2008-2017

This study aimed to evaluate the disparity in the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) between minority and non-minority areas in Sichuan Province in Western China. Data for this study was obtained from the National Health Statistics Survey System. The Cochran-Armitage trend test was used to analyze the time trend of the U5MR. We conducted Poisson regression model to compare the differences of U5MRs between minority and non-minority areas. The U5MR in Sichuan province was reduced by 62.19% from 2008 to 2017, with the minority and non-minority areas reduced by 60.48% and 65.39%, respectively. The under-five mortality risk in minority areas was approximately 1.791 times (95% CI: 1.790–1.793; P < 0.01) that in non-minority areas. The primary cause of death of children under-five years old in minority areas was the respiratory disease, which was significantly higher than that in non-minority areas (P all < 0.01). The U5MR significantly declined both in minority and non-minority areas in Sichuan Province in Western China from 2008 to 2017. However, disparities still existed between minority and non-minority areas. Respiratory diseases were the main causes of death in minority areas and corresponding rates were higher than those in non-minority areas.

The impact of the health care workforce on under-five mortality in rural China

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have focused on the relationship between increases in the health care workforce and child health outcomes, but little is known about how this relationship differs in contexts where economic growth differs by initial level and pace. This study evaluates the association between increased health professionals and the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) in rural Chinese counties from 2008 to 2014 and examines whether this relationship differs among counties with different patterns of economic growth over this period.

METHODS

We estimated fixed effects models with rural counties as the unit of analysis to evaluate the association between health professional density and U5MR. Covariates included county-level gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, female illiteracy rate, value of medical equipment per bed, and province-level health expenditures (measured as a proportion of provincial GDP). To explore modification effects, we assessed interactions between health professionals and county types defined by county poverty status and county-level trajectories of growth in GDP per capita. U5MR data have been adjusted for county-level underreporting, and all other data were obtained from administrative and official sources.

RESULTS

The U5MR dropped by 36.19% during the study period. One additional health professional per 1000 population was associated with a 2.6% reduction in U5MR, after controlling for other covariates. County poverty status and GDP trajectories moderated this relationship: the U5MR reductions attributed to a one-unit increase in health professionals were 6.8% among poor counties, but only 1.1% among non-poor ones. These reductions were, respectively, 6.7%, 0.7%, and 4.3% in counties with initially low GDP that slowly increased, medium-level GDP that rose at a moderate pace, and high GDP that rose rapidly.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates that increased health professionals were associated with reductions in U5MR. The largest association was seen in poor counties and those with low and slowly increasing GDP per capita, which justifies further expansion of the health care workforce in these areas. This study could be instructive for other developing countries to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3 by helping them identify where additional health professionals would make the greatest contribution.

Injury-related mortality among children younger than 5 years in China during 2009-2016: an analysis from national surveillance system

Background

Epidemiology in injury-related mortality among children younger than 5 years was unreported in China recently.

Methods

Data were obtained from China’s Under 5 Child Mortality Surveillance System (U5CMSS) in 2009-2016. Injury-related mortality rates were calculated by residence, age-group, gender and major injury type (drowning, traffic injuries, suffocation, poisoning, falls). The average annual decline rate (AADR) was calculated based on the annual mortality rates by Poisson regression and the relative risk (RR) between urban and rural residence was examined based on the rates of two years for each time point by Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel method.

Results

U5CMSS contained 6503 injury-related deaths of children younger than 5 years during the study period, of which 58.6% were male, 86.0% occurred in rural areas, 65.7% were children aged 12–59 months. Deaths were mainly attributed to suffocation (34.3%), drowning (29.6%), traffic injuries (17.7%), falls (7.2%) or poisoning (4.7%). The injury-related mortality rate dropped from 274.7 to 189.2 per 100 000 live births from 2009 to 2016, giving an AADR of 4.53% (95% CI 3.50% to 5.55%). During 2009–2016, the injury-related mortality rate in rural area was higher than that in urban area, the adjusted RRs (aRRs) in infants and children aged 12–59 months were 3.32–6.04 and 4.31–5.49, respectively.

Conclusion

The rate of injury-related deaths in children younger than 5 years has decreased in China, but it remains high and strong urban–rural disparities still exist. Public health programmes and policy interventions should focus particularly on suffocation among infants and on drowning and traffic injuries among children aged 12–59 months, especially in rural areas.

Maternal exposure to ambient PM10 during pregnancy increases the risk of congenital heart defects: Evidence from machine learning models

Previous research suggested an association between maternal exposure to ambient air pollutants and risk of congenital heart defects (CHDs), though the effects of particulate matter ≤10μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM₁₀) on CHDs are inconsistent. We used two machine learning models (i.e., random forest (RF) and gradient boosting (GB)) to investigate the non-linear effects of PM₁₀ exposure during the critical time window, weeks 3-8 in pregnancy, on risk of CHDs. From 2009 through 2012, we carried out a population-based birth cohort study on 39,053 live-born infants in Beijing. RF and GB models were used to calculate odds ratios for CHDs associated with increase in PM₁₀ exposure, adjusting for maternal and perinatal characteristics. Maternal exposure to PM₁₀ was identified as the primary risk factor for CHDs in all machine learning models. We observed a clear non-linear effect of maternal exposure to PM₁₀ on CHDs risk. Compared to 40μgm^-3, the following odds ratios resulted: 1) 92μgm^-3 [RF: 1.16 (95% CI: 1.06, 1.28); GB: 1.26 (95% CI: 1.17, 1.35)]; 2) 111μgm^-3 [RF: 1.04 (95% CI: 0.96, 1.14); GB: 1.04 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.08)]; 3) 124μgm^-3 [RF: 1.01 (95% CI: 0.94, 1.10); GB: 0.98 (95% CI: 0.93, 1.02)]; 4) 190μgm^-3 [RF: 1.29 (95% CI: 1.14, 1.44); GB: 1.71 (95% CI: 1.04, 2.17)]. Overall, both machine models showed an association between maternal exposure to ambient PM₁₀ and CHDs in Beijing, highlighting the need for non-linear methods to investigate dose-response relationships.

National and subnational all-cause and cause-specific child mortality in China, 1996-2015: a systematic analysis with implications for the Sustainable Development Goals

BACKGROUND

China has achieved Millennium Development Goal 4 to reduce under-5 mortality rate by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. In this study, we estimated the national and subnational levels and causes of child mortality in China annually from 1996 to 2015 to draw implications for achievement of the SDGs for China and other low-income and middle-income countries.

METHODS

In this systematic analysis, we adjusted empirical data on levels and causes of child mortality collected in the China Maternal and Child Health Surveillance System to generate representative estimates at the national and subnational levels. In adjusting the data, we considered the sampling design and probability, applied smoothing techniques to produce stable trends, fitted livebirth and age-specific death estimates to natvional estimates produced by the UN for international comparison, and partitioned national estimates of infrequent causes produced by independent sources to the subnational level.

FINDINGS

Between 1996 and 2015, the under-5 mortality rate in China declined from 50·8 per 1000 livebirths to 10·7 per 1000 livebirths, at an average annual rate of reduction of 8·2%. However, 181 600 children still died before their fifth birthday, with 93 400 (51·5%) deaths occurring in neonates. Great inequity exists in child mortality across regions and in urban versus rural areas. The leading causes of under-5 mortality in 2015 were congenital abnormalities (35 700 deaths, 95% uncertainty range [UR] 28 400-45 200), preterm birth complications (30 900 deaths, 24 200-40 800), and injuries (26 600 deaths, 21 000-33 400). Pneumonia contributed to a higher proportion of deaths in the western region of China than in the eastern and central regions, and injury was a main cause of death in rural areas. Variations in cause-of-death composition by age were also examined. The contribution of preterm birth complications to mortality decreased after the neonatal period; congenital abnormalities remained an important cause of mortality throughout infancy, whereas the contribution of injuries to mortality increased after the first year of life.

INTERPRETATION

China has achieved a rapid reduction in child mortality in 1996-2015. The decline has been widespread across regions, urban and rural areas, age groups, and cause-of-death categories, but great disparities remain. The western region and rural areas and especially western rural areas should receive most attention in improving child survival through enhanced policy and programmes in the Sustainable Development Goals era. Continued investment is crucial in primary and secondary prevention of deaths due to congenital abnormalities, preterm birth complications, and injuries nationally, and of deaths due to pneumonia in western rural areas. The study also has implications for improving child survival and civil registration and vital statistics in other low-income and middle-income countries.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.