Sex at sea: alternative mating system in an extremely polygynous mammal

Robustly estimating the demographic contribution of immigration: Simulation, sensitivity analysis and seals

Identifying important demographic drivers of population dynamics is fundamental for understanding life-history evolution and implementing effective conservation measures. Integrated population models (IPMs) coupled with transient life table response experiments (tLTREs) allow ecologists to quantify the contributions of demographic parameters to observed population change. While IPMs can estimate parameters that are not estimable using any data source alone, for example, immigration, the estimated contribution of such parameters to population change is prone to bias. Currently, it is unclear when robust conclusions can be drawn from them. We sought to understand the drivers of a rebounding southern elephant seal population on Marion Island using the IPM-tLTRE framework, applied to count and mark-recapture data on 9500 female seals over nearly 40 years. Given the uncertainty around IPM-tLTRE estimates of immigration, we also aimed to investigate the utility of simulation and sensitivity analyses as general tools for evaluating the robustness of conclusions obtained in this framework. Using a Bayesian IPM and tLTRE analysis, we quantified the contributions of survival, immigration and population structure to population growth. We assessed the sensitivity of our estimates to choice of multivariate priors on immigration and other vital rates. To do so we make a novel application of Gaussian process priors, in comparison with commonly used shrinkage priors. Using simulation, we assessed our model's ability to estimate the demographic contribution of immigration under different levels of temporal variance in immigration. The tLTRE analysis suggested that adult survival and immigration were the most important drivers of recent population growth. While the contribution of immigration was sensitive to prior choices, the estimate was consistently large. Furthermore, our simulation study validated the importance of immigration by showing that our estimate of its demographic contribution is unlikely to result as a biased overestimate. Our results highlight the connectivity between distant populations of southern elephant seals, illustrating that female dispersal can be important in regulating the abundance of local populations even when natal site fidelity is high. More generally, we demonstrate how robust ecological conclusions may be obtained about immigration from the IPM-tLTRE framework, by combining sensitivity analysis and simulation.

Reproductive biology of male common dolphins (Delphinus delphis) in New Zealand waters

Reproductive parameters were assessed in 64 male common dolphins (Delphinus delphis) examined post-mortem from strandings and bycatch in New Zealand between 1999 and 2020. The stages of male sexual maturation were assessed using morphological measurements and histological examination of testicular tissue. Age was determined via growth layer groups (GLGs) in teeth. The average age (ASM) and length (LSM) at attainment of sexual maturity were estimated to be 8.8 years and 198.3 cm, respectively. Individual variation in ASM (7.5-10 years) and LSM (190-220 cm) was observed in New Zealand common dolphins. However, on average, sexual maturity was attained at a similar length but at a marginally younger age (< 1 year) in New Zealand compared to populations in the Northern Hemisphere. All testicular variables proved better predictors of sexual maturity compared to demographic variables (age and total body length), with combined testes weight the best outright predictor of sexual maturity. Reproductive seasonality was observed in male common dolphins, with a significant increase in combined testes weight in austral summer. This aligns with most other studied populations, where seasonality in reproduction is typically observed. Given the known anthropogenic impacts on New Zealand common dolphins, we recommend that these findings be used as a baseline from which to monitor population-level changes as part of conservation management efforts.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00227-023-04266-5.

Reproductive phenology is a repeatable, heritable trait linked to the timing of other life-history events in a migratory marine predator

Population-level shifts in reproductive phenology in response to environmental change are common, but whether individual-level responses are modified by demographic and genetic factors remains less well understood. We used mixed models to quantify how reproductive timing varied across 1772 female southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) breeding at Marion Island in the Southern Ocean (1989-2019), and to identify the factors that correlate with phenological shifts within and between individuals. We found strong support for covariation in the timing of breeding arrival dates and the timing of the preceding moult. Breeding arrival dates were more repeatable at the individual level, as compared with the population level, even after accounting for individual traits (wean date as a pup, age and breeding experience) associated with phenological variability. Mother-daughter similarities in breeding phenology were also evident, indicating that additive genetic effects may contribute to between-individual variation in breeding phenology. Over 30 years, elephant seal phenology did not change towards earlier or later dates, and we found no correlation between annual fluctuations in phenology and indices of environmental variation. Our results show how maternal genetic (or non-genetic) effects, individual traits and linkages between cyclical life-history events can drive within- and between-individual variation in reproductive phenology.

Movements of southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) from Davis Base, Antarctica: combining population genetics and tracking data

Marine animals such as the southern elephant seal (Mirounga leonina) rely on a productive marine environment and are vulnerable to oceanic changes that can affect their reproduction and survival rates. Davis Base, Antarctica, acts as a moulting site for southern elephant seals that forage in Prydz Bay, but the mitochondrial haplotype diversity and natal source populations of these seals have not been characterized. In this study, we combined genetic and animal tracking data on these moulting seals to identify levels of mitochondrial haplotype diversity, natal source population, and movement behaviours during foraging and haul-out periods. Using partial sequences of the mitochondrial control region, we identified two major breeding mitochondrial lineages of seals at Davis Base. We found that the majority of the seals originated from breeding stocks within the South Atlantic Ocean and South Indian Ocean. One seal was grouped with the Macquarie Island breeding stock (South Pacific Ocean). The Macquarie Island population, unlike the other two stocks, is decreasing in size. Tracking data revealed long-distance foraging activity of the Macquarie Island seal around Crozet Islands. We speculate that changes to the Antarctic marine environment can result in a shift in foraging and movement strategies, which subsequently affects seal population growth rates.

Determinants of moult haulout phenology and duration in southern elephant seals

Phenological shifts are among the most obvious biological responses to environmental change, yet documented responses for Southern Ocean marine mammals are extremely rare. Marine mammals can respond to environmental changes through phenological flexibility of their life-history events such as breeding and moulting. Southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) undergo an obligatory annual moult which involves the rapid shedding of epidermal skin and hair while seals fast ashore. We quantified the timing (phenology) and duration (the time from arrival ashore to departure) of the moult haulout of 4612 female elephant seals at Marion Island over 32 years. Using linear mixed-effects models, we investigated age, breeding state and environmental drivers of moult timing and haulout duration. We found no clear evidence for a temporal shift in moult phenology or its duration. Annual variation in moult arrival date and haulout duration was small relative to age and breeding effects, which explained more than 90% of the variance in moult arrival date and 25% in moult haulout duration. All environmental covariates we tested explained minimal variation in the data. Female elephant seals moulted progressively later as juveniles, but adults age 4 and older had similar moult start dates that depended on the breeding state of the female. In contrast, moult haulout duration was not constant with age among adults, but instead became shorter with increasing age. Moulting is energetically expensive and differences in the moult haulout duration are possibly due to individual variation in body mass and associated metabolizable energy reserves, although other drivers (e.g. hormones) may also be present. Individual-based data on moult arrival dates and haulout duration can be used as auxiliary data in demographic modelling and may be useful proxies of other important biological parameters such as body condition and breeding history.

Oestrous females avoid mating in front of adult male bystanders in wild chacma baboons

In social species, female mating strategies can be constrained by both male and female groupmates through sexual conflict and reproductive competition, respectively. This study tests if females adjust their sexual behaviour according to the presence of male and female bystanders in wild chacma baboons (Papio ursinus) and assesses their relative importance. Our results show that oestrous females initiate fewer copulations in the presence of adult male bystanders, irrespective of whether they are mate-guarded or not. This inhibitory effect probably reflects a response to indirect sexual coercion by males, whose close proximity may dissuade females to initiate copulations with rival males to avoid punishment and/or aggressive mating interference. By contrast, females initiate more matings with their mate-guard in the presence of higher-ranking female bystanders, which may reflect an attempt to secure bodyguard services from their mate when they feel threatened. These results emphasize the importance of intra- and intersexual conflicts in shaping female sexual behaviour in this promiscuous society.

Making use of multiple surveys: Estimating breeding probability using a multievent-robust design capture-recapture model

Increased environmental stochasticity due to climate change will intensify temporal variance in the life-history traits, and especially breeding probabilities, of long-lived iteroparous species. These changes may decrease individual fitness and population viability and is therefore important to monitor. In wild animal populations with imperfect individual detection, breeding probabilities are best estimated using capture-recapture methods. However, in many vertebrate species (e.g., amphibians, turtles, seabirds), nonbreeders are unobservable because they are not tied to a territory or breeding location. Although unobservable states can be used to model temporary emigration of nonbreeders, there are disadvantages to having unobservable states in capture-recapture models. The best solution to deal with unobservable life-history states is therefore to eliminate them altogether. Here, we achieve this objective by fitting novel multievent-robust design models which utilize information obtained from multiple surveys conducted throughout the year. We use this approach to estimate annual breeding probabilities of capital breeding female elephant seals (Mirounga leonina). Conceptually, our approach parallels a multistate version of the Barker/robust design in that it combines robust design capture data collected during discrete breeding seasons with observations made at other times of the year. A substantial advantage of our approach is that the nonbreeder state became "observable" when multiple data sources were analyzed together. This allowed us to test for the existence of state-dependent survival (with some support found for lower survival in breeders compared to nonbreeders), and to estimate annual breeding transitions to and from the nonbreeder state with greater precision (where current breeders tended to have higher future breeding probabilities than nonbreeders). We used program E-SURGE (2.1.2) to fit the multievent-robust design models, with uncertainty in breeding state assignment (breeder, nonbreeder) being incorporated via a hidden Markov process. This flexible modeling approach can easily be adapted to suit sampling designs from numerous species which may be encountered during and outside of discrete breeding seasons.

Reproductive skipping as an optimal life history strategy in the southern elephant seal, Mirounga leonina

Intermittent breeding by which organisms skip some current reproductive opportunities in order to enhance future reproductive success is a common life history trade-off among long-lived, iteroparous species. The southern elephant seal Mirounga leonina engages in intermediate breeding when body condition is low. While it is anticipated that this strategy may increase the lifetime reproductive output of this species, the conditions under which reproductive skipping are predicted to occur are not clear. Here I develop a dynamic state variable model based on published data that examines when southern elephant seals are predicted to optimally skip reproduction in order to maximize lifetime reproductive output as a function of current body mass, maternal age, and survivorship. I demonstrate that the optimal reproductive strategy for this species can include reproductive skipping, and that the conditions where this is optimal depend on patterns of mass-dependent adult female survival. I further show that intermittent breeding can increase lifetime reproductive output, and that the magnitude of this benefit increases with the ability of individual animals to replenish depleted body mass through foraging. Finally, I show that when the environment is variable and foraging is reduced in bad years, the benefit of adopting an optimal strategy that includes reproductive skipping increases asymptotically with the frequency of bad years. These results highlight the importance of characterizing the pattern of adult survival in this species, as well as the need to identify other factors that may influence the prevalence and benefits of reproductive skipping.

Mate choice explains high genetic diversity in a small founding population of the New Zealand sea lion (Phocarctos hookeri)

Founder populations are susceptible to reduced genetic diversity, which can hinder successful population establishment. A new genetic lineage of the New Zealand sea lion (Phocarctos hookeri) has recently colonised the historical range of the New Zealand mainland (Otago Peninsula). Despite a small founding population, previous research indicated that nuclear genetic diversity in the Otago Peninsula population is similar to that of the larger source population (Sandy Bay, Auckland Islands). Our research aimed to identify whether mechanisms of female mate choice could help to explain the unexpectedly high level of genetic diversity in the founder population. We used genetic data at 12 microsatellite loci for mother–pup pairs from both populations, and the software COLONY to identify putative paternal genotypes inferred from allele sharing between known mother–pup pairs. We found that mating pairs were, on average, more related at the Otago Peninsula location. However, Sandy Bay females were mating with males more related to themselves than expected by chance, while the Otago Peninsula females were not. These findings suggest that female choice in this otariid species appears important, although may be constrained in some situations. Our findings also help to explain how the recently founded population is able to maintain a viable, growing population.

Optimizing lifetime reproductive output: Intermittent breeding as a tactic for females in a long-lived, multiparous mammal

In iteroparous species, intermittent breeding is an important life-history tactic that can greatly affect animal population growth and viability. Despite its importance, few studies have quantified the consequences of breeding pauses on lifetime reproductive output, principally because calculating lifetime reproductive output requires knowledge of each individual's entire reproductive history. This information is extremely difficult to obtain in wild populations. We applied novel statistical approaches that account for uncertainty in state assessment and individual heterogeneity to an 18-year capture-recapture dataset of 6,631 female southern elephant seals from Macquarie Island. We estimated survival and breeding probabilities, and investigated the consequences of intermittent breeding on lifetime reproductive output. We found consistent differences in females' demographic performance between two heterogeneity classes. In particular, breeding imbued a high cost on survival in the females from the heterogeneity class 2, assumed to be females of lower quality. Individual quality also appeared to play a major role in a female's decision to skip reproduction with females of poorer quality more likely to skip breeding events than females of higher quality. Skipping some breeding events allowed females from both heterogeneity classes to increase lifetime reproductive output over females that bred annually. However, females of lower quality produced less offspring over their lifetime. Intermittent breeding seems to be used by female southern elephant seals as a tactic to offset reproductive costs on survival and enhance lifetime reproductive output but remains unavoidable and driven by individual-specific constraints in some other females.

Five decades on: Use of historical weaning size data reveals that a decrease in maternal foraging success underpins the long-term decline in population of southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina)

The population of Southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) at Macquarie Island has declined since the 1960s, and is thought to be due to changing oceanic conditions leading to reductions in the foraging success of Macquarie Island breeding females. To test this hypothesis, we used a 55-year-old data set on weaning size of southern elephant seals to quantify a decrease in weaning size from a period of population stability in 1950s to its present state of on-going decline. Being capital breeders, the size of elephant seal pups at weaning is a direct consequence of maternal foraging success in the preceding year. During the 1940-1950s, the mean of female pups at weaning was similar between the Heard and Macquarie Island populations, while the snout-tail-length length of male weaners from Heard Island were longer than their conspecifics at Macquarie Island. Additionally, the snout-tail-length of pups at weaning decreased by 3cm between the 1950s and 1990s in the Macquarie Island population, concurrent with the observed population decline. Given the importance of weaning size in determining first-year survival and recruitment rates, the decline in the size at weaning suggests that the decline in the Macquarie Island population has, to some extent, been driven by reduced maternal foraging success, consequent declines in the size of pups at weaning, leading to reduced first-year survival rates and recruitment of breeding females into the population 3 to 4 years later.

The evolutionary ecology of deception

Through dishonest signals or actions, individuals often misinform others to their own benefit. We review recent literature to explore the evolutionary and ecological conditions for deception to be more likely to evolve and be maintained. We identify four conditions: (1) high misinformation potential through perceptual constraints of perceiver; (2) costs and benefits of responding to deception; (3) asymmetric power relationships between individuals and (4) exploitation of common goods. We discuss behavioural and physiological mechanisms that form a deception continuum from secrecy to overt signals. Deceptive tactics usually succeed by being rare and are often evolving under co-evolutionary arms races, sometimes leading to the evolution of polymorphism. The degree of deception can also vary depending on the environmental conditions. Finally, we suggest a conceptual framework for studying deception and highlight important questions for future studies.

Methods to examine reproductive biology in free-ranging, fully-marine mammals

Historical overexploitation of marine mammals, combined with present-day pressures, has resulted in severely depleted populations, with many species listed as threatened or endangered. Understanding breeding patterns of threatened marine mammals is crucial to assessing population viability, potential recovery and conservation actions. However, determining reproductive parameters of wild fully-marine mammals (cetaceans and sirenians) is challenging due to their wide distributions, high mobility, inaccessible habitats, cryptic lifestyles and in many cases, large body size and intractability. Consequently, reproductive biologists employ an innovative suite of methods to collect useful information from these species. This chapter reviews historic, recent and state-of-the-art methods to examine diverse aspects of reproduction in fully-aquatic mammals.

Weak polygyny in California sea lions and the potential for alternative mating tactics

Female aggregation and male territoriality are considered to be hallmarks of polygynous mating systems. The development of genetic parentage assignment has called into question the accuracy of behavioral traits in predicting true mating systems. In this study we use 14 microsatellite markers to explore the mating system of one of the most behaviorally polygynous species, the California sea lion (Zalophus californianus). We sampled a total of 158 female-pup pairs and 99 territorial males across two breeding rookeries (San Jorge and Los Islotes) in the Gulf of California, Mexico. Fathers could be identified for 30% of pups sampled at San Jorge across three breeding seasons and 15% of sampled pups at Los Islotes across two breeding seasons. Analysis of paternal relatedness between the pups for which no fathers were identified (sampled over four breeding seasons at San Jorge and two at Los Islotes) revealed that few pups were likely to share a father. Thirty-one percent of the sampled males on San Jorge and 15% of the sampled males on Los Islotes were assigned at least one paternity. With one exception, no male was identified as the father of more than two pups. Furthermore, at Los Islotes rookery there were significantly fewer pups assigned paternity than expected given the pool of sampled males (p<0.0001). Overall, we found considerably lower variation in male reproductive success than expected in a species that exhibits behavior associated with strongly polygynous mating. Low variation in male reproductive success may result from heightened mobility among receptive females in the Gulf of California, which reduces the ability of males to monopolize groups of females. Our results raise important questions regarding the adaptive role of territoriality and the potential for alternative mating tactics in this species.

O' mother where wert thou? Maternal strategies in the southern elephant seal: a stable isotope investigation

Maternal effects are widespread in ecology and can alter the dynamics of a population. We investigated the impact of maternal foraging strategies on offspring weaning mass--a proxy of maternal foraging success and of offspring survival--in southern elephant seals on îles Kerguelen. Using 4 years of data, we modelled pup weaning mass as a two-component mixture and used blood stable isotope values to discriminate between maternal foraging strategies previously identified from bio-logging studies. Carbon isotope ratio was a strong predictor of weaning mass, but the relationship was non-monotonic in contrast to a priori expectations. Females foraging in the interfrontal zone weaned pups with a smaller mass compared with females foraging in Antarctic waters. Pup mass was positively correlated with a proxy of global primary production in the interfrontal zone for small weanlings. Maternal effects, via a poor foraging efficiency in the 1970s, may help explain the large population decrease observed at that time on îles Kerguelen because of an overall decrease in pup weaning mass, survival and subsequent recruitment.

A hunted population in recovery: Effective population size for South American sea lions from Patagonia

Effective population size () is a parameter of central importance in evolutionary biology and conservation. Factors such as unequal sex ratios of breeding individuals, periodic fluctuation in population size and variance in reproductive success can affect the in general. At present, South American sea lions, Otaria flavescens, from northern Patagonia, Argentina, belongs to one of the several populations that are recovering from overhunting which occurred in the early 20th century. Here, we present the estimate of for this population that takes into account the effects of their polygynous mating system and variation in population size through time. The resultant overall ’s were 4171 ± 2450 or 4745 ± 2681 breeding animals depending on the inclusion of peripheral adult males. The estimated ’s are not critical, because they are close to the average mean minimum viable population for vertebrates (5000 breeding adults). Even though the northern Patagonian population of O. flavescens is increasing its abundance is still far below its historical numbers. The estimated should be considered the minimum range to be maintained, especially in light of bycatch related to fishery interactions along the Patagonian coast. We emphasise the importance of estimating for future management plans of the species within different populations.