Incorporating mesopelagic fish into the evaluation of conservation areas for marine living resources under climate change scenarios

Mesopelagic fish (meso-fish) are central species within the Southern Ocean (SO). However, their ecosystem role and adaptive capacity to climate change are rarely integrated into protected areas assessments. This is a pity given their importance as crucial prey and predators in food webs, coupled with the impacts of climate change. Here, we estimate the habitat distribution of nine meso-fish using an ensemble model approach (MAXENT, random forest, and boosted regression tree). Four climate model simulations were used to project their distribution under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for short-term (2006-2055) and long-term (2050-2099) periods. In addition, we assess the ecological representativeness of protected areas under climate change scenarios using meso-fish as indicator species. Our models show that all species shift poleward in the future. Lanternfishes (family Myctophidae) are predicted to migrate poleward more than other families (Paralepididae, Nototheniidae, Bathylagidae, and Gonostomatidae). In comparison, lanternfishes were projected to increase habitat area in the eastern SO but lose area in the western SO; the opposite was projected for species in other families. Important areas (IAs) of meso-fish are mainly distributed near the Antarctic Peninsula and East Antarctica. Negotiated protected area cover 23% of IAs at present and 38% of IAs in the future (RCP8.5, long-term future). Many IAs of meso-fish still need to be included in protected areas, such as the Prydz Bay and the seas around the Antarctic Peninsula. Our results provide a framework for evaluating protected areas incorporating climate change adaptation strategies for protected areas management.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s42995-023-00188-9.

The benthic-pelagic continuum: Age class and sex differences in the use of the vertical dimension by a rare pinniped

Sea lions as a group, display strong site fidelity, and varying degrees of vulnerability to environmental change, disease and fisheries interactions. One of the rarest pinnipeds, the New Zealand sea lion (NZSL, Phocarctos hookeri) has a very restricted breeding range. At Campbell Island/Motu Ihupuku, one of the two primary breeding sites, at-sea foraging behaviour is unknown. We hypothesised that NZSL of various sex and age classes would utilise the water column differently due to differing physiological constraints and therefore have different accessibility to prey resources. We tested whether sea lion diving behaviour varied in relation to (i) age and sex class, (ii) time of day and (iii) water depth. We also hypothesised that the proportion of benthic/pelagic diving, and consequently risk of fisheries interaction, would vary in relation to age and sex. Satellite telemetry tags were deployed on 25 NZSL from a range of age/sex classes recording dive depth, duration and location. Adult females and juveniles used inshore, benthic habitats, while sub-adult males also utilised benthic habitats, they predominantly used pelagic habitat at greater distances from the island. Adult females and juveniles exhibited shorter dives than the same age/sex classes at the Auckland Islands, suggesting a lower dive effort for these age/sex classes at Campbell Island/Motu Ihupuku. Adult females dived more frequently than other age/sex classes, likely operating closer to their physiological limits; however, further data for this age class is needed. Sub-adult male use of pelagic prey may increase their exposure to mid-water trawls; however, further research detailing the degree of spatial overlap with fisheries is required. This study highlights the utility of spatially explicit dive data to predict vertical habitat use, niche separation of various age and sex classes of marine predators and attribute potential fisheries interaction risk in relation to predator habitat use.

Global assessment of marine plastic exposure risk for oceanic birds

Plastic pollution is distributed patchily around the world's oceans. Likewise, marine organisms that are vulnerable to plastic ingestion or entanglement have uneven distributions. Understanding where wildlife encounters plastic is crucial for targeting research and mitigation. Oceanic seabirds, particularly petrels, frequently ingest plastic, are highly threatened, and cover vast distances during foraging and migration. However, the spatial overlap between petrels and plastics is poorly understood. Here we combine marine plastic density estimates with individual movement data for 7137 birds of 77 petrel species to estimate relative exposure risk. We identify high exposure risk areas in the Mediterranean and Black seas, and the northeast Pacific, northwest Pacific, South Atlantic and southwest Indian oceans. Plastic exposure risk varies greatly among species and populations, and between breeding and non-breeding seasons. Exposure risk is disproportionately high for Threatened species. Outside the Mediterranean and Black seas, exposure risk is highest in the high seas and Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) of the USA, Japan, and the UK. Birds generally had higher plastic exposure risk outside the EEZ of the country where they breed. We identify conservation and research priorities, and highlight that international collaboration is key to addressing the impacts of marine plastic on wide-ranging species.

Long-term stability in the circumpolar foraging range of a Southern Ocean predator between the eras of whaling and rapid climate change

Assessing environmental changes in Southern Ocean ecosystems is difficult due to its remoteness and data sparsity. Monitoring marine predators that respond rapidly to environmental variation may enable us to track anthropogenic effects on ecosystems. Yet, many long-term datasets of marine predators are incomplete because they are spatially constrained and/or track ecosystems already modified by industrial fishing and whaling in the latter half of the 20th century. Here, we assess the contemporary offshore distribution of a wide-ranging marine predator, the southern right whale (SRW, Eubalaena australis), that forages on copepods and krill from ~30°S to the Antarctic ice edge (>60°S). We analyzed carbon and nitrogen isotope values of 1,002 skin samples from six genetically distinct SRW populations using a customized assignment approach that accounts for temporal and spatial variation in the Southern Ocean phytoplankton isoscape. Over the past three decades, SRWs increased their use of mid-latitude foraging grounds in the south Atlantic and southwest (SW) Indian oceans in the late austral summer and autumn and slightly increased their use of high-latitude (>60°S) foraging grounds in the SW Pacific, coincident with observed changes in prey distribution and abundance on a circumpolar scale. Comparing foraging assignments with whaling records since the 18th century showed remarkable stability in use of mid-latitude foraging areas. We attribute this consistency across four centuries to the physical stability of ocean fronts and resulting productivity in mid-latitude ecosystems of the Southern Ocean compared with polar regions that may be more influenced by recent climate change.

Extreme polygyny results in intersex differences in age-dependent survival of a highly dimorphic marine mammal

Developmental differences in vital rates are especially profound in polygamous mating systems. Southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) are highly dimorphic and extremely polygynous marine mammals. A demographic model, supported by long-term capture-mark-recapture records, investigated the influence of sex and age on survival in this species. The study revealed clear differences between female and male age-dependent survival rates. Overall juvenile survival estimates were stable around 80-85% for both sexes. However, male survival estimates were 5-10% lower than females in the same age classes until 8 years of age. At this point, male survival decreased rapidly to 50% ± 10% while female estimates remained constant at 80% ± 5%. Different energetic requirements could underpin intersex differences in adult survival. However, the species' strong sexual dimorphism diverges during early juvenile development when sex-specific survival rates were less distinct. Maximizing growth is especially advantageous for males, with size being a major determinant of breeding probability. Maturing males may employ a high-risk high-reward foraging strategy to compensate for extensive sexual selection pressures and sex-specific energetic needs. Our findings suggest sex-specific adult survival is a result of in situ ecological interactions and evolutionary specialization associated with being a highly polygynous marine predator.

Potential for redistribution of post-moult habitat for Eudyptes penguins in the Southern Ocean under future climate conditions

Anthropogenic climate change is resulting in spatial redistributions of many species. We assessed the potential effects of climate change on an abundant and widely distributed group of diving birds, Eudyptes penguins, which are the main avian consumers in the Southern Ocean in terms of biomass consumption. Despite their abundance, several of these species have undergone population declines over the past century, potentially due to changing oceanography and prey availability over the important winter months. We used light-based geolocation tracking data for 485 individuals deployed between 2006 and 2020 across 10 of the major breeding locations for five taxa of Eudyptes penguins. We used boosted regression tree modelling to quantify post-moult habitat preference for southern rockhopper (E. chrysocome), eastern rockhopper (E. filholi), northern rockhopper (E. moseleyi) and macaroni/royal (E. chrysolophus and E. schlegeli) penguins. We then modelled their redistribution under two climate change scenarios, representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (for the end of the century, 2071-2100). As climate forcings differ regionally, we quantified redistribution in the Atlantic, Central Indian, East Indian, West Pacific and East Pacific regions. We found sea surface temperature and sea surface height to be the most important predictors of current habitat for these penguins; physical features that are changing rapidly in the Southern Ocean. Our results indicated that the less severe RCP4.5 would lead to less habitat loss than the more severe RCP8.5. The five taxa of penguin may experience a general poleward redistribution of their preferred habitat, but with contrasting effects in the (i) change in total area of preferred habitat under climate change (ii) according to geographic region and (iii) the species (macaroni/royal vs. rockhopper populations). Our results provide further understanding on the regional impacts and vulnerability of species to climate change.

The role of allochrony in influencing interspecific differences in foraging distribution during the non-breeding season between two congeneric crested penguin species

Mechanisms promoting coexistence between closely related species are fundamental for maintaining species diversity. Mechanisms of niche differentiation include allochrony which offsets the peak timing of resource utilisation between species. Many studies focus on spatial and temporal niche partitioning during the breeding season, few have investigated the role allochrony plays in influencing interspecific segregation of foraging distribution and ecology between congeneric species during the non-breeding season. We investigated the non-breeding migrations of Snares (Eudyptes robustus) and Fiordland penguins (Eudyptes pachyrhynchus), closely related species breeding between 100-350 km apart whose migration phenology differs by two months. Using light geolocation tracking, we examined the degree of overlap given the observed allochrony and a hypothetical scenario where the species commence migration simultaneously. We found that Fiordland penguins migrated to the Sub-Antarctic Frontal Zone and Polar Frontal Zone in the austral autumn whereas Snares penguins disperse westwards staying north of the Sub-Tropical Front in the austral winter. Our results suggest that allochrony is likely to be at the root of segregation because the relative profitability of the different water masses that the penguins forage in changes seasonally which results in the two species utilising different areas over their core non-breeding periods. Furthermore, allochrony reduces relatively higher levels of spatiotemporal overlap during the departure and arrival periods, when the close proximity of the two species' colonies would cause the birds to congregate in similar areas, resulting in high interspecific competition just before the breeding season. Available evidence from other studies suggests that the shift in phenology between these species has arisen from adaptive radiation and phenological matching to the seasonality of local resource availability during the breeding season and reduced competitive overlap over the non-breeding season is likely to be an incidental outcome.

Elephant seal foraging success is enhanced in Antarctic coastal polynyas

Antarctic polynyas are persistent open water areas which enable early and large seasonal phytoplankton blooms. This high primary productivity, boosted by iron supply from coastal glaciers, attracts organisms from all trophic levels to form a rich and diverse community. How the ecological benefit of polynya productivity is translated to the highest trophic levels remains poorly resolved. We studied 119 southern elephant seals feeding over the Antarctic shelf and demonstrated that: (i) 96% of seals foraging here used polynyas, with individuals spending on average 62% of their time there; (ii) the seals exhibited more area-restricted search behaviour when in polynyas; and (iii) these seals gained more energy (indicated by increased buoyancy from greater fat stores) when inside polynyas. This higher-quality foraging existed even when ice was not present in the study area, indicating that these are important and predictable foraging grounds year-round. Despite these energetic advantages from using polynyas, not all the seals used them extensively. Factors other than food supply may influence an individual's choice in their use of feeding grounds, such as exposure to predation or the probability of being able to return to distant sub-Antarctic breeding sites.

Sex, body size, and boldness shape the seasonal foraging habitat selection in southern elephant seals

Selecting foraging habitat is a fundamental behavior in the life of organisms as it directly links resource acquisition to fitness. Differences in habitat selection among individuals may arise from several intrinsic and extrinsic factors, and yet, their interaction has been given little attention in the study of wild populations. We combine sex, body size, and boldness to explain individual differences in the seasonal foraging habitat selection of southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) from the Kerguelen Archipelago. We hypothesize that habitat selection is linked to the trade-off between resource acquisition and risk, and that individuals differ in their position along this trade-off because of differences in reproductive strategies, life stages, and metabolic requirements. Before the post-molt foraging trip, we used a novel object approach test to quantify the boldness of 28 subadult and adult females and 42 subadult males and equipped them with data loggers to track their movements at sea. Subadult males selected neritic and oceanic habitats, whereas females mostly selected less productive oceanic habitats. Both sexes showed a seasonal shift from Antarctic habitats in the south in the summer to the free of ice subantarctic and subtropical habitats in the north in the winter. Males avoided oceanic habitats and selected more productive neritic and Antarctic habitats with body size mostly in the winter. Bolder males selected northern warmer waters in winter, while shyer ones selected the Kerguelen plateau and southern colder oceanic waters. Bolder females selected the Kerguelen plateau in the summer when prey profitability is assumed to be the highest. This study not only provides new insights into the spatiotemporal foraging ecology of elephant seals in relation to personality but also emphasizes the relevance of combining several intrinsic and extrinsic factors in understanding among-individual variation in space use essential in wildlife management and conservation.

The cost of a meal: factors influencing prey profitability in Australian fur seals

Knowledge of the factors shaping the foraging behaviour of species is central to understanding their ecosystem role and predicting their response to environmental variability. To maximise survival and reproduction, foraging strategies must balance the costs and benefits related to energy needed to pursue, manipulate, and consume prey with the nutritional reward obtained. While such information is vital for understanding how changes in prey assemblages may affect predators, determining these components is inherently difficult in cryptic predators. The present study used animal-borne video data loggers to investigate the costs and benefits related to different prey types for female Australian fur seals (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus), a primarily benthic foraging species in the low productivity Bass Strait, south-eastern Australia. A total of 1,263 prey captures, resulting from 2,027 prey detections, were observed in 84.5 h of video recordings from 23 individuals. Substantial differences in prey pursuit and handling times, gross energy gain and total energy expenditure were observed between prey types. Importantly, the profitability of prey was not significantly different between prey types, with the exception of elasmobranchs. This study highlights the benefit of animal-borne video data loggers for understanding the factors that influence foraging decisions in predators. Further studies incorporating search times for different prey types would further elucidate how profitability differs with prey type.

Climate change impacts on seabirds and marine mammals: The importance of study duration, thermal tolerance and generation time

Understanding climate change impacts on top predators is fundamental to marine biodiversity conservation, due to their increasingly threatened populations and their importance in marine ecosystems. We conducted a systematic review of the effects of climate change (prolonged, directional change) and climate variability on seabirds and marine mammals. We extracted data from 484 studies (4808 published studies were reviewed), comprising 2215 observations on demography, phenology, distribution, diet, behaviour, body condition and physiology. The likelihood of concluding that climate change had an impact increased with study duration. However, the temporal thresholds for the effects of climate change to be discernibly varied from 10 to 29 years depending on the species, the biological response and the oceanic study region. Species with narrow thermal ranges and relatively long generation times were more often reported to be affected by climate change. This provides an important framework for future assessments, with guidance on response- and region-specific temporal dimensions that need to be considered when reporting effects of climate change. Finally, we found that tropical regions and non-breeding life stages were poorly covered in the literature, a concern that should be addressed to enable a better understanding of the vulnerability of marine predators to climate change.

Global COVID-19 lockdown highlights humans as both threats and custodians of the environment

The global lockdown to mitigate COVID-19 pandemic health risks has altered human interactions with nature. Here, we report immediate impacts of changes in human activities on wildlife and environmental threats during the early lockdown months of 2020, based on 877 qualitative reports and 332 quantitative assessments from 89 different studies. Hundreds of reports of unusual species observations from around the world suggest that animals quickly responded to the reductions in human presence. However, negative effects of lockdown on conservation also emerged, as confinement resulted in some park officials being unable to perform conservation, restoration and enforcement tasks, resulting in local increases in illegal activities such as hunting. Overall, there is a complex mixture of positive and negative effects of the pandemic lockdown on nature, all of which have the potential to lead to cascading responses which in turn impact wildlife and nature conservation. While the net effect of the lockdown will need to be assessed over years as data becomes available and persistent effects emerge, immediate responses were detected across the world. Thus, initial qualitative and quantitative data arising from this serendipitous global quasi-experimental perturbation highlights the dual role that humans play in threatening and protecting species and ecosystems. Pathways to favorably tilt this delicate balance include reducing impacts and increasing conservation effectiveness.

Influence of environmental variation on spatial distribution and habitat-use in a benthic foraging marine predator

The highly dynamic nature of the marine environment can have a substantial influence on the foraging behaviour and spatial distribution of marine predators, particularly in pelagic marine systems. However, knowledge of the susceptibility of benthic marine predators to environmental variability is limited. This study investigated the influence of local-scale environmental conditions and large-scale climate indices on the spatial distribution and habitat use in the benthic foraging Australian fur seal (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus; AUFS). Female AUFS provisioning pups were instrumented with GPS or ARGOS platform terminal transmitter tags during the austral winters of 2001-2019 at Kanowna Island, south-eastern Australia. Individuals were most susceptible to changes in the Southern Oscillation Index that measures the strength of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, with larger foraging ranges, greater distances travelled and more dispersed movement associated with 1-yr lagged La Niña-like conditions. Additionally, the total distance travelled was negatively correlated with the current year sea surface temperature and 1-yr lagged Indian Ocean Dipole, and positively correlated with 1-yr lagged chlorophyll-a concentration. These results suggest that environmental variation may influence the spatial distribution and availability of prey, even within benthic marine systems.

A prediction and imputation method for marine animal movement data

Data prediction and imputation are important parts of marine animal movement trajectory analysis as they can help researchers understand animal movement patterns and address missing data issues. Compared with traditional methods, deep learning methods can usually provide enhanced pattern extraction capabilities, but their applications in marine data analysis are still limited. In this research, we propose a composite deep learning model to improve the accuracy of marine animal trajectory prediction and imputation. The model extracts patterns from the trajectories with an encoder network and reconstructs the trajectories using these patterns with a decoder network. We use attention mechanisms to highlight certain extracted patterns as well for the decoder. We also feed these patterns into a second decoder for prediction and imputation. Therefore, our approach is a coupling of unsupervised learning with the encoder and the first decoder and supervised learning with the encoder and the second decoder. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach can reduce errors by at least 10% on average comparing with other methods.

Climate influences on female survival in a declining population of southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina)

The Southern Ocean has been disproportionately affected by climate change and is therefore an ideal place to study the influence of changing environmental conditions on ecosystems. Changes in the demography of predator populations are indicators of broader shifts in food web structure, but long-term data are required to study these effects. Southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) from Macquarie Island have consistently decreased in population size while all other major populations across the Southern Ocean have recently stabilized or are increasing. Two long-term mark-recapture studies (1956-1967 and 1993-2009) have monitored this population, which provides an opportunity to investigate demographic performance over a range of climatic conditions. Using a 9-state matrix population model, we estimated climate influences on female survival by incorporating two major climatic indices into our model: The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Our best model included a 1 year lagged effect of SAM and an unlagged SOI as covariates. A positive relationship with SAM1 (lagged) related the previous year's SAM with juvenile survival, potentially due to changes in local prey availability surrounding Macquarie Island. The unlagged SOI had a negative effect on both juvenile and adult seals, indicating that sea ice dynamics and access to foraging grounds on the East Antarctic continental shelf could explain the different contributions of ENSO events on the survival of females in this population.

Predicting the distribution of foraging seabirds during a period of heightened environmental variability

Quantifying the links between the marine environment, prey occurrence, and predator distribution is the first step towards identifying areas of biological importance for marine spatial planning. Events such as marine heatwaves result in an anomalous change in the physical environment, which can lead to shifts in the structure, biomass, and distribution of lower trophic levels. As central-place foragers, seabirds are vulnerable to changes in their foraging grounds during the breeding season. We first quantified spatiotemporal variability in the occurrence and biomass of prey in response to an abrupt change in oceanography as a result of a marine heatwave event. Secondly, using multivariate techniques and machine learning, we investigated if differences in the foraging technique and prey of seabirds resulted in varying responses to changes in prey occurrence and the environment over a 2.5-yr period. We found that the main variables correlated with seabird distribution were also important in structuring the occurrence and biomass of prey; sea-surface temperature (SST), current speed, mixed-layer depth, and bathymetry. Both zooplankton biomass and the occurrence of fish schools exhibited negative relationships with temperature, and temperature was subsequently an important variable in determining seabird distribution. We were able to establish correlations between the distribution of prey and the spatiotemporal distribution of albatross, little penguins and common-diving petrels. We were unable to find a correlation between the distribution of prey and that of short-tailed shearwaters and fairy prions. For high-use coastal areas, the delineation of important foraging regions is essential to balance human use of an area with the needs of marine predators, particularly seabirds.

Intertrip consistency in hunting behavior improves foraging success and efficiency in a marine top predator

Substantial variation in foraging strategies can exist within populations, even those typically regarded as generalists. Specializations arise from the consistent exploitation of a narrow behavioral, spatial or dietary niche over time, which may reduce intraspecific competition and influence adaptability to environmental change. However, few studies have investigated whether behavioral consistency confers benefits at the individual and/or population level. While still recovering from commercial sealing overexploitation, Australian fur seals (AUFS; Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus) represent the largest marine predator biomass in south-eastern Australia. During lactation, female AUFS adopt a central-place foraging strategy and are, thus, vulnerable to changes in prey availability. The present study investigated the population-level repeatability and individual consistency in foraging behavior of 34 lactating female AUFS at a south-east Australian breeding colony between 2006 and 2019. Additionally, the influence of individual-level behavioral consistency on indices of foraging success and efficiency during benthic diving was determined. Low to moderate population-level repeatability was observed across foraging behaviors, with the greatest repeatability in the mean bearing and modal dive depth. Individual-level consistency was greatest for the proportion of benthic diving, total distance travelled, and trip duration. Indices of benthic foraging success and efficiency were positively influenced by consistency in the proportion of benthic diving, trip duration and dive rate but not influenced by consistency in bearing to most distal point, dive depth or foraging site fidelity. The results of the present study provide evidence of the benefits of consistency for individuals, which may have flow-on effects at the population level.

Inter- and intrasex habitat partitioning in the highly dimorphic southern elephant seal

Partitioning resources is a key mechanism for avoiding intraspecific competition and maximizing individual energy gain. However, in sexually dimorphic species it is difficult to discern if partitioning is due to competition or the different resource needs of morphologically distinct individuals. In the highly dimorphic southern elephant seal, there are intersexual differences in habitat use; at Iles Kerguelen, males predominantly use shelf waters, while females use deeper oceanic waters. There are equally marked intrasexual differences, with some males using the nearby Kerguelen Plateau, and others using the much more distant Antarctic continental shelf (~2,000 km away). We used this combination of inter and intrasexual behavior to test two hypotheses regarding habitat partitioning in highly dimorphic species. (a) that intersexual differences in habitat use will not appear until the seals diverge in body size and (b) that some habitats have higher rates of energy return than others. In particular, that the Antarctic shelf would provide higher energy returns than the Kerguelen Shelf, to offset the greater cost of travel. We quantified the habitat use of 187 southern elephant seals (102 adult females and 85 subadult males). The seals in the two groups were the same size (~2.4 m) removing the confounding effect of body size. We found that the intersexual differences in habitat use existed before the divergence in body size. Also, we found that the amount of energy gained was the same in all of the major habitats. This suggests that the use of shelf habitats by males is innate, and a trade-off between the need to access the large benthic prey available on shelf waters, against the higher risk of predation there. Intrasexual differences in habitat use are another trade-off; although there are fewer predators on the Antarctic shelf, it is subject to considerable interannual fluctuations in sea-ice extent. In contrast, the Kerguelen Plateau presents more consistent foraging opportunities, but contains higher levels of predation. Habitat partitioning in this highly dimorphic species is therefore the result of complex interplay of life history strategies, environmental conditions and predation pressure.

Plastic, nutrition and pollution; relationships between ingested plastic and metal concentrations in the livers of two Pachyptila seabirds

Naturally occurring metals and metalloids [metal(loid)s] are essential for the physiological functioning of wildlife; however, environmental contamination by metal(loid) and plastic pollutants is a health hazard. Metal(loid)s may interact with plastic in the environment and there is mixed evidence about whether plastic ingested by wildlife affects metal(loid) absorption/assimilation and concentration in the body. We examined ingested plastic and liver concentration of eleven metal(loid)s in two seabird species: fairy (Pachyptila turtur) and slender-billed prions (P. belcheri). We found significant relationships between ingested plastic and the concentrations of aluminium (Al), manganese (Mn), iron (Fe), cobalt (Co), copper (Cu) and zinc (Zn) in the liver of prions. We investigated whether the pattern of significant relationships reflected plastic-metal(loid) associations predicted in the scientific literature, including by transfer of metals from ingested plastics or malnutrition due to dietary dilution by plastics in the gut. We found some support for both associations, suggesting that ingested plastic may be connected with dietary dilution / lack of essential nutrients, especially iron, and potential transfer of zinc. We did not find a relationship between plastic and non-essential metal(loid)s, including lead. The effect of plastic was minor compared to that of dietary exposure to metal(oid)s, and small plastic loads (< 3 items) had no discernible link with metal(loid)s. This new evidence shows a relationship between plastic ingestion and liver metal(loid) concentrations in free-living wildlife.

Decadal changes in blood δ13C values, at-sea distribution, and weaning mass of southern elephant seals from Kerguelen Islands

Changes in the foraging environment and at-sea distribution of southern elephant seals from Kerguelen Islands were investigated over a decade (2004-2018) using tracking, weaning mass, and blood δ13C values. Females showed either a sub-Antarctic or an Antarctic foraging strategy, and no significant shift in their at-sea distribution was detected between 2004 and 2017. The proportion of females foraging in sub-Antarctic versus Antarctic habitats did not change over the 2006-2018 period. Pup weaning mass varied according to the foraging habitat of their mothers. The weaning mass of sub-Antarctic foraging mothers' pups decreased by 11.7 kg over the study period, but they were on average 5.8 kg heavier than pups from Antarctic foraging mothers. Pup blood δ13C values decreased by 1.1‰ over the study period regardless of their sex and the presumed foraging habitat of their mothers. Together, these results suggest an ecological change is occurring within the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean with possible consequences on the foraging performance of southern elephant seals. We hypothesize that this shift in δ13C is related to a change in primary production and/or in the composition of phytoplankton communities, but this requires further multidisciplinary investigations.

Tracking of marine predators to protect Southern Ocean ecosystems

Southern Ocean ecosystems are under pressure from resource exploitation and climate change^1,2. Mitigation requires the identification and protection of Areas of Ecological Significance (AESs), which have so far not been determined at the ocean-basin scale. Here, using assemblage-level tracking of marine predators, we identify AESs for this globally important region and assess current threats and protection levels. Integration of more than 4,000 tracks from 17 bird and mammal species reveals AESs around sub-Antarctic islands in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans and over the Antarctic continental shelf. Fishing pressure is disproportionately concentrated inside AESs, and climate change over the next century is predicted to impose pressure on these areas, particularly around the Antarctic continent. At present, 7.1% of the ocean south of 40°S is under formal protection, including 29% of the total AESs. The establishment and regular revision of networks of protection that encompass AESs are needed to provide long-term mitigation of growing pressures on Southern Ocean ecosystems.

The retrospective analysis of Antarctic tracking data project

The Retrospective Analysis of Antarctic Tracking Data (RAATD) is a Scientific Committee for Antarctic Research project led jointly by the Expert Groups on Birds and Marine Mammals and Antarctic Biodiversity Informatics, and endorsed by the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources. RAATD consolidated tracking data for multiple species of Antarctic meso- and top-predators to identify Areas of Ecological Significance. These datasets and accompanying syntheses provide a greater understanding of fundamental ecosystem processes in the Southern Ocean, support modelling of predator distributions under future climate scenarios and create inputs that can be incorporated into decision making processes by management authorities. In this data paper, we present the compiled tracking data from research groups that have worked in the Antarctic since the 1990s. The data are publicly available through biodiversity.aq and the Ocean Biogeographic Information System. The archive includes tracking data from over 70 contributors across 12 national Antarctic programs, and includes data from 17 predator species, 4060 individual animals, and over 2.9 million observed locations.

A continuous-time state-space model for rapid quality control of argos locations from animal-borne tags

BACKGROUND

State-space models are important tools for quality control and analysis of error-prone animal movement data. The near real-time (within 24 h) capability of the Argos satellite system can aid dynamic ocean management of human activities by informing when animals enter wind farms, shipping lanes, and other intensive use zones. This capability also facilitates the use of ocean observations from animal-borne sensors in operational ocean forecasting models. Such near real-time data provision requires rapid, reliable quality control to deal with error-prone Argos locations.

METHODS

We formulate a continuous-time state-space model to filter the three types of Argos location data (Least-Squares, Kalman filter, and Kalman smoother), accounting for irregular timing of observations. Our model is deliberately simple to ensure speed and reliability for automated, near real-time quality control of Argos location data. We validate the model by fitting to Argos locations collected from 61 individuals across 7 marine vertebrates and compare model-estimated locations to contemporaneous GPS locations. We then test assumptions that Argos Kalman filter/smoother error ellipses are unbiased, and that Argos Kalman smoother location accuracy cannot be improved by subsequent state-space modelling.

RESULTS

Estimation accuracy varied among species with Root Mean Squared Errors usually <5 km and these decreased with increasing data sampling rate and precision of Argos locations. Including a model parameter to inflate Argos error ellipse sizes in the north - south direction resulted in more accurate location estimates. Finally, in some cases the model appreciably improved the accuracy of the Argos Kalman smoother locations, which should not be possible if the smoother is using all available information.

CONCLUSIONS

Our model provides quality-controlled locations from Argos Least-Squares or Kalman filter data with accuracy similar to or marginally better than Argos Kalman smoother data that are only available via fee-based reprocessing. Simplicity and ease of use make the model suitable both for automated quality control of near real-time Argos data and for manual use by researchers working with historical Argos data.

Preferred, small-scale foraging areas of two Southern Ocean fur seal species are not determined by habitat characteristics

Background

To understand and predict the distribution of foragers, it is crucial to identify the factors that affect individual movement decisions at different scales. Individuals are expected to adjust their foraging movements to the hierarchical spatial distribution of resources. At a small local scale, spatial segregation in foraging habitat happens among individuals of closely situated colonies. If foraging segregation is due to differences in distribution of resources, we would expect segregated foraging areas to have divergent habitat characteristics.

Results

We investigated how environmental characteristics of preferred foraging areas differ between two closely situated Subantarctic fur seal (Arctocephalus tropicalis) colonies and a single Antarctic fur seal (A. gazella) colony that forage in different pelagic areas even though they are located well within each other’s foraging range. We further investigated the influence of the seasonal cycle on those environmental factors. This study used tracking data from 121 adult female Subantarctic and Antarctic fur seals, collected during summer and winter (2009–2015), from three different colonies. Boosted Regression Tree species distribution models were used to determine key environmental variables associated with areas of fur seal restricted search behaviour. There were no differences in the relative influence of key environmental variables between colonies and seasons. The variables with the most influence for each colony and season were latitude, longitude and magnitude of sea-currents. The influence of latitude and longitude is a by-product of the species’ distinct foraging areas, despite the close proximity (< 25 km) of the colonies. The predicted potential foraging areas for each colony changed from summer to winter, reflecting the seasonal cycle of the Southern Ocean. The model predicted that the potential foraging areas of females from the three colonies should overlap, and the fact they do not in reality indicates that factors other than environmental are influencing the location of each colony’s foraging area.

Conclusions

The results indicated that small scale spatial segregation of foraging habitats is not driven by bottom-up processes. It is therefore important to also consider other potential drivers, e.g. competition, information transfer, and memory, to understand animal foraging decisions and movements.

Size of marine debris items ingested and retained by petrels

Pollution of the world's oceans by marine debris has direct consequences for wildlife, with fragments of plastic <10 mm the most abundant buoyant litter in the ocean. Seabirds are susceptible to debris ingestion, commonly mistaking floating plastics for food. Studies have shown that half of petrel species regularly ingest anthropogenic waste. Despite the regularity of debris ingestion, no studies to date have quantified the dimensions of debris items ingested across petrel species ranging in size. We excised and measured 1694 rigid anthropogenic debris items from 348 petrel carcasses of 20 species. We found that although the size of items ingested by petrels scale positively with the size of the bird, 90% of all debris items ingested across species fall within a narrow "danger zone" range of 2-10 mm, overlapping with the most abundant oceanic debris size. We conclude that this globally profuse size range of marine plastics is an ingestion hazard to petrels.

A quantitative analysis linking seabird mortality and marine debris ingestion

Procellariiformes are the most threatened bird group globally, and the group with the highest frequency of marine debris ingestion. Marine debris ingestion is a globally recognized threat to marine biodiversity, yet the relationship between how much debris a bird ingests and mortality remains poorly understood. Using cause of death data from 1733 seabirds of 51 species, we demonstrate a significant relationship between ingested debris and a debris-ingestion cause of death (dose-response). There is a 20.4% chance of lifetime mortality from ingesting a single debris item, rising to 100% after consuming 93 items. Obstruction of the gastro-intestinal tract is the leading cause of death. Overall, balloons are the highest-risk debris item; 32 times more likely to result in death than ingesting hard plastic. These findings have significant implications for quantifying seabird mortality due to debris ingestion, and provide identifiable policy targets aimed to reduce mortality for threatened species worldwide.

Killer whale (Orcinus orca) interactions with blue-eye trevalla (Hyperoglyphe antarctica) longline fisheries

Over the past five decades, marine mammal interactions with fisheries have become a major human-wildlife conflict globally. The emergence of longline fishing is concomitant with the development of depredation-type interactions i.e., marine mammals feeding on fish caught on hooks. The killer whale (Orcinus orca) is one of the species most involved in depredation on longline fisheries. The issue was first reported in high latitudes but, with increasing expansion of this fishing method, other fisheries have begun to experience interactions. The present study investigated killer whale interactions with two geographically isolated blue-eye trevalla (Hyperoglyphe antarctica) fisheries operating in temperate waters off Amsterdam/St. Paul Islands (Indian Ocean) and south-eastern Australia. These two fisheries differ in the fishing technique used (vertical vs. demersal longlines), effort, catch, fleet size and fishing area size. Using 7-year (2010–16) long fishing and observation datasets, this study estimated the levels of killer whale interactions and examined the influence of spatio-temporal and operational variables on the probability of vessels to experience interactions. Killer whales interactions occurred during 58.4% and 21.2% of all fishing days, and over 94% and 47.4% of the fishing area for both fisheries, respectively. In south-eastern Australia, the probability of occurrence of killer whale interactions during fishing days varied seasonally with a decrease in spring, increased with the daily fishing effort and decreased with the distance travelled by the vessel between fishing days. In Amsterdam/St. Paul, this probability was only influenced by latitude, with an increase in the southern part of the area. Together, these findings document two previously unreported cases of high killer whale depredation, and provide insights on ways to avoid the issue. The study also emphasizes the need to further examine the local characteristics of fisheries and the ecology of local depredating killer whale populations in as important drivers of depredation.

Modelling southern elephant seals Mirounga leonina using an individual-based model coupled with a dynamic energy budget

Higher trophic-level species are an integral component of any marine ecosystem. Despite their importance, methods for representing these species in end-to-end ecosystem models often have limited representation of life histories, energetics and behaviour. We built an individual-based model coupled with a dynamic energy budget for female southern elephant seals Mirounga leonina to demonstrate a method for detailed representation of marine mammals. We aimed to develop a model which could i) simulate energy use and life histories, as well as breeding traits of southern elephant seals in an emergent manner, ii) project a stable population over time, and iii) have realistic population dynamics and structure based on emergent life history features (such as age at first breeding, lifespan, fecundity and (yearling) survival). We evaluated the model's ability to represent a stable population over long time periods (>10 generations), including the sensitivity of the emergent properties to variations in key parameters. Analyses indicated that the model is sensitive to changes in resource availability and energy requirements for the transition from pup to juvenile, and juvenile to adult stage. This was particularly the case for breeding success and yearling survival. This model is suitable for use as a standalone tool for investigating the impacts of changes to behaviour and population responses of southern elephant seals.

DNA methylation levels in candidate genes associated with chronological age in mammals are not conserved in a long-lived seabird

Most seabirds do not have any outward identifiers of their chronological age, so estimation of seabird population age structure generally requires expensive, long-term banding studies. We investigated the potential to use a molecular age biomarker to estimate age in short-tailed shearwaters (Ardenna tenuirostris). We quantified DNA methylation in several A. tenuirostris genes that have shown age-related methylation changes in mammals. In birds ranging from chicks to 21 years of age, bisulphite treated blood and feather DNA was sequenced and methylation levels analysed in 67 CpG sites in 13 target gene regions. From blood samples, five of the top relationships with age were identified in KCNC3 loci (CpG66: R² = 0.325, p = 0.019). In feather samples ELOVL2 (CpG42: R² = 0.285, p = 0.00048) and EDARADD (CpG46: R² = 0.168, p = 0.0067) were also weakly correlated with age. However, the majority of markers had no clear association with age (of 131 comparisons only 12 had a p-value < 0.05) and statistical analysis using a penalised lasso approach did not produce an accurate ageing model. Our data indicate that some age-related signatures identified in orthologous mammalian genes are not conserved in the long-lived short tailed shearwater. Alternative molecular approaches will be required to identify a reliable biomarker of chronological age in these seabirds.

Decadal changes in habitat characteristics influence population trajectories of southern elephant seals

Understanding divergent biological responses to climate change is important for predicting ecosystem level consequences. We use species habitat models to predict the winter foraging habitats of female southern elephant seals and investigate how changes in environmental variables within these habitats may be related to observed decreases in the Macquarie Island population. There were three main groups of seals that specialized in different ocean realms (the sub-Antarctic, the Ross Sea and the Victoria Land Coast). The physical and climate attributes (e.g. wind strength, sea surface height, ocean current strength) varied amongst the realms and also displayed different temporal trends over the last two to four decades. Most notably, sea ice extent increased on average in the Victoria Land realm while it decreased overall in the Ross Sea realm. Using a species distribution model relating mean residence times (time spent in each 50 × 50 km grid cell) to 9 climate and physical co-variates, we developed spatial predictions of residence time to identify the core regions used by the seals across the Southern Ocean from 120°E to 120°W. Population size at Macquarie Island was negatively correlated with ice concentration within the core habitat of seals using the Victoria Land Coast and the Ross Sea. Sea ice extent and concentration is predicted to continue to change in the Southern Ocean, having unknown consequences for the biota of the region. The proportion of Macquarie Island females (40%) utilizing the relatively stable sub-Antarctic region, may buffer this population against longer-term regional changes in habitat quality, but the Macquarie Island population has persistently decreased (-1.45% per annum) over seven decades indicating that environmental changes in the Antarctic are acting on the remaining 60% of the population to impose a long-term population decline in a top Southern Ocean predator.

Optimizing lifetime reproductive output: Intermittent breeding as a tactic for females in a long-lived, multiparous mammal

In iteroparous species, intermittent breeding is an important life-history tactic that can greatly affect animal population growth and viability. Despite its importance, few studies have quantified the consequences of breeding pauses on lifetime reproductive output, principally because calculating lifetime reproductive output requires knowledge of each individual's entire reproductive history. This information is extremely difficult to obtain in wild populations. We applied novel statistical approaches that account for uncertainty in state assessment and individual heterogeneity to an 18-year capture-recapture dataset of 6,631 female southern elephant seals from Macquarie Island. We estimated survival and breeding probabilities, and investigated the consequences of intermittent breeding on lifetime reproductive output. We found consistent differences in females' demographic performance between two heterogeneity classes. In particular, breeding imbued a high cost on survival in the females from the heterogeneity class 2, assumed to be females of lower quality. Individual quality also appeared to play a major role in a female's decision to skip reproduction with females of poorer quality more likely to skip breeding events than females of higher quality. Skipping some breeding events allowed females from both heterogeneity classes to increase lifetime reproductive output over females that bred annually. However, females of lower quality produced less offspring over their lifetime. Intermittent breeding seems to be used by female southern elephant seals as a tactic to offset reproductive costs on survival and enhance lifetime reproductive output but remains unavoidable and driven by individual-specific constraints in some other females.

Measuring Animal Age with DNA Methylation: From Humans to Wild Animals

DNA methylation (DNAm) is a key mechanism for regulating gene expression in animals and levels are known to change with age. Recent studies have used DNAm changes as a biomarker to estimate chronological age in humans and these techniques are now also being applied to domestic and wild animals. Animal age is widely used to track ongoing changes in ecosystems, however chronological age information is often unavailable for wild animals. An ability to estimate age would lead to improved monitoring of (i) population trends and status and (ii) demographic properties such as age structure and reproductive performance. Recent studies have revealed new examples of DNAm age association in several new species increasing the potential for developing DNAm age biomarkers for a broad range of wild animals. Emerging technologies for measuring DNAm will also enhance our ability to study age-related DNAm changes and to develop new molecular age biomarkers.

Five decades on: Use of historical weaning size data reveals that a decrease in maternal foraging success underpins the long-term decline in population of southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina)

The population of Southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) at Macquarie Island has declined since the 1960s, and is thought to be due to changing oceanic conditions leading to reductions in the foraging success of Macquarie Island breeding females. To test this hypothesis, we used a 55-year-old data set on weaning size of southern elephant seals to quantify a decrease in weaning size from a period of population stability in 1950s to its present state of on-going decline. Being capital breeders, the size of elephant seal pups at weaning is a direct consequence of maternal foraging success in the preceding year. During the 1940-1950s, the mean of female pups at weaning was similar between the Heard and Macquarie Island populations, while the snout-tail-length length of male weaners from Heard Island were longer than their conspecifics at Macquarie Island. Additionally, the snout-tail-length of pups at weaning decreased by 3cm between the 1950s and 1990s in the Macquarie Island population, concurrent with the observed population decline. Given the importance of weaning size in determining first-year survival and recruitment rates, the decline in the size at weaning suggests that the decline in the Macquarie Island population has, to some extent, been driven by reduced maternal foraging success, consequent declines in the size of pups at weaning, leading to reduced first-year survival rates and recruitment of breeding females into the population 3 to 4 years later.

Quantifying the energy stores of capital breeding humpback whales and income breeding sperm whales using historical whaling records

Cetacean energy stores are known to vary according to life history, reproductive status and time of year; however, the opportunity to quantify these relationships is rare. Using a unique set of historical whaling records from Western Australia (1952-1963), we investigated energy stores of large cetaceans with differing life histories, and quantified the relationship between total body lipid and length for humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) (n = 905) and sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus) (n = 1961). We found that total body lipid increased with body length in both humpback and sperm whales, consistent with size-related energy stores. Male humpback whales stored 2.49 kl (15.6 barrels) (31.9-74.9%) more lipid than male sperm whales of equivalent length, to fuel their annual migration. Relative lipid stores of sperm whales (males) were constant throughout the year, while those of humpback whales varied with reproductive class and sampling date. Pregnant female humpback whales had higher relative energy stores than non-pregnant females and males (26.2% and 37.4%, respectively), to fuel the energy demands of gestation and lactation. Those that reached the sampling site later (en route to their breeding grounds) carried higher lipid stores than those that arrived earlier, possibly reflecting individual variation in residency times in the Antarctic feeding grounds. Importantly, longer pregnant females had relatively larger energy stores than the shorter pregnant females, indicating that the smaller individuals may experience higher levels of energetic stress during the migration fast. The relationships we developed between body lipid and length can be used to inform bioenergetics and ecosystem models when such detailed information is not available.

Variability in sea ice cover and climate elicit sex specific responses in an Antarctic predator

Contrasting regional changes in Southern Ocean sea ice have occurred over the last 30 years with distinct regional effects on ecosystem structure and function. Quantifying how Antarctic predators respond to such changes provides the context for predicting how climate variability/change will affect these assemblages into the future. Over an 11-year time-series, we examine how inter-annual variability in sea ice concentration and advance affect the foraging behaviour of a top Antarctic predator, the southern elephant seal. Females foraged longer in pack ice in years with greatest sea ice concentration and earliest sea ice advance, while males foraged longer in polynyas in years of lowest sea ice concentration. There was a positive relationship between near-surface meridional wind anomalies and female foraging effort, but not for males. This study reveals the complexities of foraging responses to climate forcing by a poleward migratory predator through varying sea ice property and dynamic anomalies.

Seal mothers expend more on offspring under favourable conditions and less when resources are limited

In mammals, maternal expenditure on offspring is a complex mix of several factors including the species' mating system, offspring sex and the condition and age of the mother. While theory suggests that in polygynous species mothers should wean larger male offspring than females when resources and maternal conditions allow, the evidence for this remains equivocal. Southern elephant seals are highly dimorphic, polygynous capital breeders existing in an environment with highly variable resources and should therefore provide clear evidence to support the theoretical expectations of differential maternal expenditure in male and female pups. We quantified maternal size (mass and length) and pup size at birth and weaning for 342 elephant seal mothers at Macquarie Island. The study was conducted over 11 years of contrasting sea-ice and Southern Annular Mode values, both indices of maternal prey resources. Overall, large females weaned male pups that weighed 17 kg (15·5%) more than female pups. Maternal condition varied by as much as 59 kg among years, and was positively related to Southern Annular Mode, and negatively to maximum sea-ice extent. Smaller mothers weaned relatively larger male pups under favourable conditions, this effect was less apparent for larger mothers. We developed a simple model linking environmental variation to maternal masses post-partum, followed by maternal masses post-partum to weaning masses and then weaning masses to pup survival and demonstrated that environmental conditions affected predicted survival so that the pups of small mothers had an estimated 7% increase in first year survival in 'good' vs. 'bad' years compared to 1% for female pups of large mothers. Co-occurrence of environmental quality and conservative reproductive tactics suggests that mothers retain substantial plasticity in maternal care, enhancing their lifetime reproductive success by adjusting reproductive expenditure relative to both prevailing environmental conditions and their own capabilities.

It’s a girl! A female southern elephant seal born in Western Australia

Southern elephant seals typically breed on subantarctic islands and breeding in more temperate regions is rare. This small female (~1.42 m) that weaned after 25 days is smaller than the average weaned female elephant seal and her survival prospects are correspondingly low (20–35%). The fact that the elephant seal was successfully weaned offers some insight into the breeding plasticity in this species.

Putting the behavior into animal movement modeling: Improved activity budgets from use of ancillary tag information

Animal movement research relies on biotelemetry, and telemetry-based locations are increasingly augmented with ancillary information. This presents an underutilized opportunity to enhance movement process models. Given tags designed to record specific behaviors, efforts are increasing to update movement models beyond reliance solely upon horizontal movement information to improve inference of space use and activity budgets. We present two state-space models adapted to incorporate ancillary data to inform three discrete movement states: directed, resident, and an activity state. These were developed for two case studies: (1) a "haulout" model for Weddell seals, and (2) an "activity" model for Antarctic fur seals which intersperse periods of diving activity and inactivity. The methodology is easily implementable with any ancillary data that can be expressed as a proportion (or binary) indicator. A comparison of the models augmented with ancillary information and unaugmented models confirmed that many behavioral states appeared mischaracterized in the latter. Important changes in subsequent activity budgets occurred. Haulout accounted for 0.17 of the overall Weddell seal time budget, with the estimated proportion of time spent in a resident state reduced from a posterior median of 0.69 (0.65-0.73; 95% HPDI) to 0.54 (0.50-0.58 HPDI). The drop was more dramatic in the Antarctic fur seal case, from 0.57 (0.52-0.63 HPDI) to 0.22 (0.20-0.25 HPDI), with 0.35 (0.31-0.39 HPDI) of time spent in the inactive (nondiving) state. These findings reinforce previously raised contentions about the drawbacks of behavioral states inferred solely from horizontal movements. Our findings have implications for assessing habitat requirements; estimating energetics and consumption; and management efforts such as mitigating fisheries interactions. Combining multiple sources of information within integrated frameworks should improve inference of relationships between movement decisions and fitness, the interplay between resource and habitat dependencies, and their changes at the population and landscape level.