Growth in marine mammals: a review of growth patterns, composition and energy investment

Growth of structural mass and energy reserves influences individual survival, reproductive success, population and species life history. Metrics of structural growth and energy storage of individuals are often used to assess population health and reproductive potential, which can inform conservation. However, the energetic costs of tissue deposition for structural growth and energy stores and their prioritization within bioenergetic budgets are poorly documented. This is particularly true across marine mammal species as resources are accumulated at sea, limiting the ability to measure energy allocation and prioritization. We reviewed the literature on marine mammal growth to summarize growth patterns, explore their tissue compositions, assess the energetic costs of depositing these tissues and explore the tradeoffs associated with growth. Generally, marine mammals exhibit logarithmic growth. This means that the energetic costs related to growth and tissue deposition are high for early postnatal animals, but small compared to the total energy budget as animals get older. Growth patterns can also change in response to resource availability, habitat and other energy demands, such that they can serve as an indicator of individual and population health. Composition of tissues remained consistent with respect to protein and water content across species; however, there was a high degree of variability in the lipid content of both muscle (0.1-74.3%) and blubber (0.4-97.9%) due to the use of lipids as energy storage. We found that relatively few well-studied species dominate the literature, leaving data gaps for entire taxa, such as beaked whales. The purpose of this review was to identify such gaps, to inform future research priorities and to improve our understanding of how marine mammals grow and the associated energetic costs.

Extreme polygyny results in intersex differences in age-dependent survival of a highly dimorphic marine mammal

Developmental differences in vital rates are especially profound in polygamous mating systems. Southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) are highly dimorphic and extremely polygynous marine mammals. A demographic model, supported by long-term capture-mark-recapture records, investigated the influence of sex and age on survival in this species. The study revealed clear differences between female and male age-dependent survival rates. Overall juvenile survival estimates were stable around 80-85% for both sexes. However, male survival estimates were 5-10% lower than females in the same age classes until 8 years of age. At this point, male survival decreased rapidly to 50% ± 10% while female estimates remained constant at 80% ± 5%. Different energetic requirements could underpin intersex differences in adult survival. However, the species' strong sexual dimorphism diverges during early juvenile development when sex-specific survival rates were less distinct. Maximizing growth is especially advantageous for males, with size being a major determinant of breeding probability. Maturing males may employ a high-risk high-reward foraging strategy to compensate for extensive sexual selection pressures and sex-specific energetic needs. Our findings suggest sex-specific adult survival is a result of in situ ecological interactions and evolutionary specialization associated with being a highly polygynous marine predator.

Key questions in marine mammal bioenergetics

Bioenergetic approaches are increasingly used to understand how marine mammal populations could be affected by a changing and disturbed aquatic environment. There remain considerable gaps in our knowledge of marine mammal bioenergetics, which hinder the application of bioenergetic studies to inform policy decisions. We conducted a priority-setting exercise to identify high-priority unanswered questions in marine mammal bioenergetics, with an emphasis on questions relevant to conservation and management. Electronic communication and a virtual workshop were used to solicit and collate potential research questions from the marine mammal bioenergetic community. From a final list of 39 questions, 11 were identified as 'key' questions because they received votes from at least 50% of survey participants. Key questions included those related to energy intake (prey landscapes, exposure to human activities) and expenditure (field metabolic rate, exposure to human activities, lactation, time-activity budgets), energy allocation priorities, metrics of body condition and relationships with survival and reproductive success and extrapolation of data from one species to another. Existing tools to address key questions include labelled water, animal-borne sensors, mark-resight data from long-term research programs, environmental DNA and unmanned vehicles. Further validation of existing approaches and development of new methodologies are needed to comprehensively address some key questions, particularly for cetaceans. The identification of these key questions can provide a guiding framework to set research priorities, which ultimately may yield more accurate information to inform policies and better conserve marine mammal populations.

Elephant seal foraging success is enhanced in Antarctic coastal polynyas

Antarctic polynyas are persistent open water areas which enable early and large seasonal phytoplankton blooms. This high primary productivity, boosted by iron supply from coastal glaciers, attracts organisms from all trophic levels to form a rich and diverse community. How the ecological benefit of polynya productivity is translated to the highest trophic levels remains poorly resolved. We studied 119 southern elephant seals feeding over the Antarctic shelf and demonstrated that: (i) 96% of seals foraging here used polynyas, with individuals spending on average 62% of their time there; (ii) the seals exhibited more area-restricted search behaviour when in polynyas; and (iii) these seals gained more energy (indicated by increased buoyancy from greater fat stores) when inside polynyas. This higher-quality foraging existed even when ice was not present in the study area, indicating that these are important and predictable foraging grounds year-round. Despite these energetic advantages from using polynyas, not all the seals used them extensively. Factors other than food supply may influence an individual's choice in their use of feeding grounds, such as exposure to predation or the probability of being able to return to distant sub-Antarctic breeding sites.

Sex, body size, and boldness shape the seasonal foraging habitat selection in southern elephant seals

Selecting foraging habitat is a fundamental behavior in the life of organisms as it directly links resource acquisition to fitness. Differences in habitat selection among individuals may arise from several intrinsic and extrinsic factors, and yet, their interaction has been given little attention in the study of wild populations. We combine sex, body size, and boldness to explain individual differences in the seasonal foraging habitat selection of southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) from the Kerguelen Archipelago. We hypothesize that habitat selection is linked to the trade-off between resource acquisition and risk, and that individuals differ in their position along this trade-off because of differences in reproductive strategies, life stages, and metabolic requirements. Before the post-molt foraging trip, we used a novel object approach test to quantify the boldness of 28 subadult and adult females and 42 subadult males and equipped them with data loggers to track their movements at sea. Subadult males selected neritic and oceanic habitats, whereas females mostly selected less productive oceanic habitats. Both sexes showed a seasonal shift from Antarctic habitats in the south in the summer to the free of ice subantarctic and subtropical habitats in the north in the winter. Males avoided oceanic habitats and selected more productive neritic and Antarctic habitats with body size mostly in the winter. Bolder males selected northern warmer waters in winter, while shyer ones selected the Kerguelen plateau and southern colder oceanic waters. Bolder females selected the Kerguelen plateau in the summer when prey profitability is assumed to be the highest. This study not only provides new insights into the spatiotemporal foraging ecology of elephant seals in relation to personality but also emphasizes the relevance of combining several intrinsic and extrinsic factors in understanding among-individual variation in space use essential in wildlife management and conservation.

Global COVID-19 lockdown highlights humans as both threats and custodians of the environment

The global lockdown to mitigate COVID-19 pandemic health risks has altered human interactions with nature. Here, we report immediate impacts of changes in human activities on wildlife and environmental threats during the early lockdown months of 2020, based on 877 qualitative reports and 332 quantitative assessments from 89 different studies. Hundreds of reports of unusual species observations from around the world suggest that animals quickly responded to the reductions in human presence. However, negative effects of lockdown on conservation also emerged, as confinement resulted in some park officials being unable to perform conservation, restoration and enforcement tasks, resulting in local increases in illegal activities such as hunting. Overall, there is a complex mixture of positive and negative effects of the pandemic lockdown on nature, all of which have the potential to lead to cascading responses which in turn impact wildlife and nature conservation. While the net effect of the lockdown will need to be assessed over years as data becomes available and persistent effects emerge, immediate responses were detected across the world. Thus, initial qualitative and quantitative data arising from this serendipitous global quasi-experimental perturbation highlights the dual role that humans play in threatening and protecting species and ecosystems. Pathways to favorably tilt this delicate balance include reducing impacts and increasing conservation effectiveness.

Climate influences on female survival in a declining population of southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina)

The Southern Ocean has been disproportionately affected by climate change and is therefore an ideal place to study the influence of changing environmental conditions on ecosystems. Changes in the demography of predator populations are indicators of broader shifts in food web structure, but long-term data are required to study these effects. Southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) from Macquarie Island have consistently decreased in population size while all other major populations across the Southern Ocean have recently stabilized or are increasing. Two long-term mark-recapture studies (1956-1967 and 1993-2009) have monitored this population, which provides an opportunity to investigate demographic performance over a range of climatic conditions. Using a 9-state matrix population model, we estimated climate influences on female survival by incorporating two major climatic indices into our model: The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Our best model included a 1 year lagged effect of SAM and an unlagged SOI as covariates. A positive relationship with SAM1 (lagged) related the previous year's SAM with juvenile survival, potentially due to changes in local prey availability surrounding Macquarie Island. The unlagged SOI had a negative effect on both juvenile and adult seals, indicating that sea ice dynamics and access to foraging grounds on the East Antarctic continental shelf could explain the different contributions of ENSO events on the survival of females in this population.

Risk assessment of SARS-CoV-2 in Antarctic wildlife

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). This pathogen has spread rapidly across the world, causing high numbers of deaths and significant social and economic impacts. SARS-CoV-2 is a novel coronavirus with a suggested zoonotic origin with the potential for cross-species transmission among animals. Antarctica can be considered the only continent free of SARS-CoV-2. Therefore, concerns have been expressed regarding the potential human introduction of this virus to the continent through the activities of research or tourism to minimise the effects on human health, and the potential for virus transmission to Antarctic wildlife. We assess the reverse-zoonotic transmission risk to Antarctic wildlife by considering the available information on host susceptibility, dynamics of the infection in humans, and contact interactions between humans and Antarctic wildlife. The environmental conditions in Antarctica seem to be favourable for the virus stability. Indoor spaces such as those at research stations, research vessels or tourist cruise ships could allow for more transmission among humans and depending on their movements between different locations the virus could be spread across the continent. Among Antarctic wildlife previous in silico analyses suggested that cetaceans are at greater risk of infection whereas seals and birds appear to be at a low infection risk. However, caution needed until further research is carried out and consequently, the precautionary principle should be applied. Field researchers handling animals are identified as the human group posing the highest risk of transmission to animals while tourists and other personnel pose a significant risk only when in close proximity (< 5 m) to Antarctic fauna. We highlight measures to reduce the risk as well as identify of knowledge gaps related to this issue.

Inter- and intrasex habitat partitioning in the highly dimorphic southern elephant seal

Partitioning resources is a key mechanism for avoiding intraspecific competition and maximizing individual energy gain. However, in sexually dimorphic species it is difficult to discern if partitioning is due to competition or the different resource needs of morphologically distinct individuals. In the highly dimorphic southern elephant seal, there are intersexual differences in habitat use; at Iles Kerguelen, males predominantly use shelf waters, while females use deeper oceanic waters. There are equally marked intrasexual differences, with some males using the nearby Kerguelen Plateau, and others using the much more distant Antarctic continental shelf (~2,000 km away). We used this combination of inter and intrasexual behavior to test two hypotheses regarding habitat partitioning in highly dimorphic species. (a) that intersexual differences in habitat use will not appear until the seals diverge in body size and (b) that some habitats have higher rates of energy return than others. In particular, that the Antarctic shelf would provide higher energy returns than the Kerguelen Shelf, to offset the greater cost of travel. We quantified the habitat use of 187 southern elephant seals (102 adult females and 85 subadult males). The seals in the two groups were the same size (~2.4 m) removing the confounding effect of body size. We found that the intersexual differences in habitat use existed before the divergence in body size. Also, we found that the amount of energy gained was the same in all of the major habitats. This suggests that the use of shelf habitats by males is innate, and a trade-off between the need to access the large benthic prey available on shelf waters, against the higher risk of predation there. Intrasexual differences in habitat use are another trade-off; although there are fewer predators on the Antarctic shelf, it is subject to considerable interannual fluctuations in sea-ice extent. In contrast, the Kerguelen Plateau presents more consistent foraging opportunities, but contains higher levels of predation. Habitat partitioning in this highly dimorphic species is therefore the result of complex interplay of life history strategies, environmental conditions and predation pressure.

A baseline for POPs contamination in Australian seabirds: little penguins vs. short-tailed shearwaters

While globally distributed throughout the world's ecosystems, there is little baseline information on persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in marine environments in Australia and, more broadly, the Southern Hemisphere. To fill this knowledge gap, we collected baseline information on POPs in migratory short-tailed shearwaters (Ardenna tenuirostris) from Fisher Island, Tasmania, and resident little penguins (Eudyptula minor) from Phillip Island, Victoria. Levels of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) and brominated flame retardants (BFRs) were determined from blood samples, with total contamination ranging 7.6-47.7 ng/g ww for short-tailed shearwaters and 0.12-46.9 ng/g ww for little penguins. In both species contamination followed the same pattern where PCBs>OCPs>BFRs. BFR levels included the presence of the novel flame retardant hexabromobenzene (HBB). These novel results of POPs in seabirds in southeast Australia provide important information on the local (penguins) and global (shearwaters) distribution of POPs in the marine environment.

Decadal changes in blood δ13C values, at-sea distribution, and weaning mass of southern elephant seals from Kerguelen Islands

Changes in the foraging environment and at-sea distribution of southern elephant seals from Kerguelen Islands were investigated over a decade (2004-2018) using tracking, weaning mass, and blood δ13C values. Females showed either a sub-Antarctic or an Antarctic foraging strategy, and no significant shift in their at-sea distribution was detected between 2004 and 2017. The proportion of females foraging in sub-Antarctic versus Antarctic habitats did not change over the 2006-2018 period. Pup weaning mass varied according to the foraging habitat of their mothers. The weaning mass of sub-Antarctic foraging mothers' pups decreased by 11.7 kg over the study period, but they were on average 5.8 kg heavier than pups from Antarctic foraging mothers. Pup blood δ13C values decreased by 1.1‰ over the study period regardless of their sex and the presumed foraging habitat of their mothers. Together, these results suggest an ecological change is occurring within the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean with possible consequences on the foraging performance of southern elephant seals. We hypothesize that this shift in δ13C is related to a change in primary production and/or in the composition of phytoplankton communities, but this requires further multidisciplinary investigations.

Tracking of marine predators to protect Southern Ocean ecosystems

Southern Ocean ecosystems are under pressure from resource exploitation and climate change^1,2. Mitigation requires the identification and protection of Areas of Ecological Significance (AESs), which have so far not been determined at the ocean-basin scale. Here, using assemblage-level tracking of marine predators, we identify AESs for this globally important region and assess current threats and protection levels. Integration of more than 4,000 tracks from 17 bird and mammal species reveals AESs around sub-Antarctic islands in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans and over the Antarctic continental shelf. Fishing pressure is disproportionately concentrated inside AESs, and climate change over the next century is predicted to impose pressure on these areas, particularly around the Antarctic continent. At present, 7.1% of the ocean south of 40°S is under formal protection, including 29% of the total AESs. The establishment and regular revision of networks of protection that encompass AESs are needed to provide long-term mitigation of growing pressures on Southern Ocean ecosystems.

The retrospective analysis of Antarctic tracking data project

The Retrospective Analysis of Antarctic Tracking Data (RAATD) is a Scientific Committee for Antarctic Research project led jointly by the Expert Groups on Birds and Marine Mammals and Antarctic Biodiversity Informatics, and endorsed by the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources. RAATD consolidated tracking data for multiple species of Antarctic meso- and top-predators to identify Areas of Ecological Significance. These datasets and accompanying syntheses provide a greater understanding of fundamental ecosystem processes in the Southern Ocean, support modelling of predator distributions under future climate scenarios and create inputs that can be incorporated into decision making processes by management authorities. In this data paper, we present the compiled tracking data from research groups that have worked in the Antarctic since the 1990s. The data are publicly available through biodiversity.aq and the Ocean Biogeographic Information System. The archive includes tracking data from over 70 contributors across 12 national Antarctic programs, and includes data from 17 predator species, 4060 individual animals, and over 2.9 million observed locations.

Complete tag loss in capture-recapture studies affects abundance estimates: An elephant seal case study

In capture-recapture studies, recycled individuals occur when individuals lose all of their tags and are recaptured as though they were new individuals. Typically, the effect of these recycled individuals is assumed negligible.Through a simulation-based study of double-tagging experiments, we examined the effect of recycled individuals on parameter estimates in the Jolly-Seber model with tag loss (Cowen & Schwarz, 2006). We validated the simulation framework using long-term census data of elephant seals.Including recycled individuals did not affect estimates of capture, survival, and tag-retention probabilities. However, with low tag-retention rates, high capture rates, and high survival rates, recycled individuals produced overestimates of population size. For the elephant seal case study, we found population size estimates to be between 8% and 53% larger when recycled individuals were ignored.Ignoring the effects of recycled individuals can cause large biases in population size estimates. These results are particularly noticeable in longer studies.

Antarctic Futures: An Assessment of Climate-Driven Changes in Ecosystem Structure, Function, and Service Provisioning in the Southern Ocean

In this article, we analyze the impacts of climate change on Antarctic marine ecosystems. Observations demonstrate large-scale changes in the physical variables and circulation of the Southern Ocean driven by warming, stratospheric ozone depletion, and a positive Southern Annular Mode. Alterations in the physical environment are driving change through all levels of Antarctic marine food webs, which differ regionally. The distributions of key species, such as Antarctic krill, are also changing. Differential responses among predators reflect differences in species ecology. The impacts of climate change on Antarctic biodiversity will likely vary for different communities and depend on species range. Coastal communities and those of sub-Antarctic islands, especially range-restricted endemic communities, will likely suffer the greatest negative consequences of climate change. Simultaneously, ecosystem services in the Southern Ocean will likely increase. Such decoupling of ecosystem services and endemic species will require consideration in the management of human activities such as fishing in Antarctic marine ecosystems.

A continuous-time state-space model for rapid quality control of argos locations from animal-borne tags

BACKGROUND

State-space models are important tools for quality control and analysis of error-prone animal movement data. The near real-time (within 24 h) capability of the Argos satellite system can aid dynamic ocean management of human activities by informing when animals enter wind farms, shipping lanes, and other intensive use zones. This capability also facilitates the use of ocean observations from animal-borne sensors in operational ocean forecasting models. Such near real-time data provision requires rapid, reliable quality control to deal with error-prone Argos locations.

METHODS

We formulate a continuous-time state-space model to filter the three types of Argos location data (Least-Squares, Kalman filter, and Kalman smoother), accounting for irregular timing of observations. Our model is deliberately simple to ensure speed and reliability for automated, near real-time quality control of Argos location data. We validate the model by fitting to Argos locations collected from 61 individuals across 7 marine vertebrates and compare model-estimated locations to contemporaneous GPS locations. We then test assumptions that Argos Kalman filter/smoother error ellipses are unbiased, and that Argos Kalman smoother location accuracy cannot be improved by subsequent state-space modelling.

RESULTS

Estimation accuracy varied among species with Root Mean Squared Errors usually <5 km and these decreased with increasing data sampling rate and precision of Argos locations. Including a model parameter to inflate Argos error ellipse sizes in the north - south direction resulted in more accurate location estimates. Finally, in some cases the model appreciably improved the accuracy of the Argos Kalman smoother locations, which should not be possible if the smoother is using all available information.

CONCLUSIONS

Our model provides quality-controlled locations from Argos Least-Squares or Kalman filter data with accuracy similar to or marginally better than Argos Kalman smoother data that are only available via fee-based reprocessing. Simplicity and ease of use make the model suitable both for automated quality control of near real-time Argos data and for manual use by researchers working with historical Argos data.

The importance of sample size in marine megafauna tagging studies

Telemetry is a key, widely used tool to understand marine megafauna distribution, habitat use, behavior, and physiology; however, a critical question remains: "How many animals should be tracked to acquire meaningful data sets?" This question has wide-ranging implications including considerations of statistical power, animal ethics, logistics, and cost. While power analyses can inform sample sizes needed for statistical significance, they require some initial data inputs that are often unavailable. To inform the planning of telemetry and biologging studies of marine megafauna where few or no data are available or where resources are limited, we reviewed the types of information that have been obtained in previously published studies using different sample sizes. We considered sample sizes from one to >100 individuals and synthesized empirical findings, detailing the information that can be gathered with increasing sample sizes. We complement this review with simulations, using real data, to show the impact of sample size when trying to address various research questions in movement ecology of marine megafauna. We also highlight the value of collaborative, synthetic studies to enhance sample sizes and broaden the range, scale, and scope of questions that can be answered.

Translating Marine Animal Tracking Data into Conservation Policy and Management

There have been efforts around the globe to track individuals of many marine species and assess their movements and distribution, with the putative goal of supporting their conservation and management. Determining whether, and how, tracking data have been successfully applied to address real-world conservation issues is, however, difficult. Here, we compile a broad range of case studies from diverse marine taxa to show how tracking data have helped inform conservation policy and management, including reductions in fisheries bycatch and vessel strikes, and the design and administration of marine protected areas and important habitats. Using these examples, we highlight pathways through which the past and future investment in collecting animal tracking data might be better used to achieve tangible conservation benefits.

Chemical capture of wild swamp buffalo (Bubalus bubalis) in tropical northern Australia using thiafentanil, etorphine and azaperone combinations

BACKGROUND

Studying wild animals in situ is fundamental to collecting baseline information, but generally they need to be immobilised for examination, sampling, marking and/or equipping with tracking apparatus. Capturing wild animals is inherently risky and there is a need for immobilisation methods that are safe for both the animals and researchers.

METHODS

A total of 16 free-ranging swamp buffalo (Bubalus bubalis) were chemically captured by dart for the application of satellite tracking collars in tropical northern Australia; 7 animals were anesthetised with a thiafentanil-etorphine-azaperone (TEA) combination and 9 animals with a thiafentanil-azaperone (TA) combination. Anaesthesia was reversed with intravenous naltrexone. Mean dosages of etorphine and thiafentanil for animals in the TEA group were 0.01 mg/kg of each drug and mean dosage of thiafentanil for animals in the TA group was 0.02 mg/kg. Total dose per animal of azaperone and naltrexone was 80 mg and 150 mg, respectively. Anaesthetic monitoring was by physical observation of physiological variables, pulse oximetry and capnography. Blood laboratory parameters including creatine kinase (CK), aspartate transaminase (AST), serum bicarbonate and anion gap were measured.

RESULTS

All subject animals recovered well from anaesthesia despite the occurrence of subclinical acidosis in some patients. There was no significant difference between the treatment groups. Conversely, chase time had an adverse effect on body temperature, irrespective of the anaesthetic combination used.

CONCLUSIONS

Thiafentanil and azaperone, with or without etorphine, delivered rapid safe, effective, reversible field anaesthesia in healthy swamp buffalo.

Modelling southern elephant seals Mirounga leonina using an individual-based model coupled with a dynamic energy budget

Higher trophic-level species are an integral component of any marine ecosystem. Despite their importance, methods for representing these species in end-to-end ecosystem models often have limited representation of life histories, energetics and behaviour. We built an individual-based model coupled with a dynamic energy budget for female southern elephant seals Mirounga leonina to demonstrate a method for detailed representation of marine mammals. We aimed to develop a model which could i) simulate energy use and life histories, as well as breeding traits of southern elephant seals in an emergent manner, ii) project a stable population over time, and iii) have realistic population dynamics and structure based on emergent life history features (such as age at first breeding, lifespan, fecundity and (yearling) survival). We evaluated the model's ability to represent a stable population over long time periods (>10 generations), including the sensitivity of the emergent properties to variations in key parameters. Analyses indicated that the model is sensitive to changes in resource availability and energy requirements for the transition from pup to juvenile, and juvenile to adult stage. This was particularly the case for breeding success and yearling survival. This model is suitable for use as a standalone tool for investigating the impacts of changes to behaviour and population responses of southern elephant seals.

Decadal changes in habitat characteristics influence population trajectories of southern elephant seals

Understanding divergent biological responses to climate change is important for predicting ecosystem level consequences. We use species habitat models to predict the winter foraging habitats of female southern elephant seals and investigate how changes in environmental variables within these habitats may be related to observed decreases in the Macquarie Island population. There were three main groups of seals that specialized in different ocean realms (the sub-Antarctic, the Ross Sea and the Victoria Land Coast). The physical and climate attributes (e.g. wind strength, sea surface height, ocean current strength) varied amongst the realms and also displayed different temporal trends over the last two to four decades. Most notably, sea ice extent increased on average in the Victoria Land realm while it decreased overall in the Ross Sea realm. Using a species distribution model relating mean residence times (time spent in each 50 × 50 km grid cell) to 9 climate and physical co-variates, we developed spatial predictions of residence time to identify the core regions used by the seals across the Southern Ocean from 120°E to 120°W. Population size at Macquarie Island was negatively correlated with ice concentration within the core habitat of seals using the Victoria Land Coast and the Ross Sea. Sea ice extent and concentration is predicted to continue to change in the Southern Ocean, having unknown consequences for the biota of the region. The proportion of Macquarie Island females (40%) utilizing the relatively stable sub-Antarctic region, may buffer this population against longer-term regional changes in habitat quality, but the Macquarie Island population has persistently decreased (-1.45% per annum) over seven decades indicating that environmental changes in the Antarctic are acting on the remaining 60% of the population to impose a long-term population decline in a top Southern Ocean predator.

Optimizing lifetime reproductive output: Intermittent breeding as a tactic for females in a long-lived, multiparous mammal

In iteroparous species, intermittent breeding is an important life-history tactic that can greatly affect animal population growth and viability. Despite its importance, few studies have quantified the consequences of breeding pauses on lifetime reproductive output, principally because calculating lifetime reproductive output requires knowledge of each individual's entire reproductive history. This information is extremely difficult to obtain in wild populations. We applied novel statistical approaches that account for uncertainty in state assessment and individual heterogeneity to an 18-year capture-recapture dataset of 6,631 female southern elephant seals from Macquarie Island. We estimated survival and breeding probabilities, and investigated the consequences of intermittent breeding on lifetime reproductive output. We found consistent differences in females' demographic performance between two heterogeneity classes. In particular, breeding imbued a high cost on survival in the females from the heterogeneity class 2, assumed to be females of lower quality. Individual quality also appeared to play a major role in a female's decision to skip reproduction with females of poorer quality more likely to skip breeding events than females of higher quality. Skipping some breeding events allowed females from both heterogeneity classes to increase lifetime reproductive output over females that bred annually. However, females of lower quality produced less offspring over their lifetime. Intermittent breeding seems to be used by female southern elephant seals as a tactic to offset reproductive costs on survival and enhance lifetime reproductive output but remains unavoidable and driven by individual-specific constraints in some other females.

Measuring Animal Age with DNA Methylation: From Humans to Wild Animals

DNA methylation (DNAm) is a key mechanism for regulating gene expression in animals and levels are known to change with age. Recent studies have used DNAm changes as a biomarker to estimate chronological age in humans and these techniques are now also being applied to domestic and wild animals. Animal age is widely used to track ongoing changes in ecosystems, however chronological age information is often unavailable for wild animals. An ability to estimate age would lead to improved monitoring of (i) population trends and status and (ii) demographic properties such as age structure and reproductive performance. Recent studies have revealed new examples of DNAm age association in several new species increasing the potential for developing DNAm age biomarkers for a broad range of wild animals. Emerging technologies for measuring DNAm will also enhance our ability to study age-related DNAm changes and to develop new molecular age biomarkers.

Five decades on: Use of historical weaning size data reveals that a decrease in maternal foraging success underpins the long-term decline in population of southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina)

The population of Southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) at Macquarie Island has declined since the 1960s, and is thought to be due to changing oceanic conditions leading to reductions in the foraging success of Macquarie Island breeding females. To test this hypothesis, we used a 55-year-old data set on weaning size of southern elephant seals to quantify a decrease in weaning size from a period of population stability in 1950s to its present state of on-going decline. Being capital breeders, the size of elephant seal pups at weaning is a direct consequence of maternal foraging success in the preceding year. During the 1940-1950s, the mean of female pups at weaning was similar between the Heard and Macquarie Island populations, while the snout-tail-length length of male weaners from Heard Island were longer than their conspecifics at Macquarie Island. Additionally, the snout-tail-length of pups at weaning decreased by 3cm between the 1950s and 1990s in the Macquarie Island population, concurrent with the observed population decline. Given the importance of weaning size in determining first-year survival and recruitment rates, the decline in the size at weaning suggests that the decline in the Macquarie Island population has, to some extent, been driven by reduced maternal foraging success, consequent declines in the size of pups at weaning, leading to reduced first-year survival rates and recruitment of breeding females into the population 3 to 4 years later.

Quantifying the energy stores of capital breeding humpback whales and income breeding sperm whales using historical whaling records

Cetacean energy stores are known to vary according to life history, reproductive status and time of year; however, the opportunity to quantify these relationships is rare. Using a unique set of historical whaling records from Western Australia (1952-1963), we investigated energy stores of large cetaceans with differing life histories, and quantified the relationship between total body lipid and length for humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) (n = 905) and sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus) (n = 1961). We found that total body lipid increased with body length in both humpback and sperm whales, consistent with size-related energy stores. Male humpback whales stored 2.49 kl (15.6 barrels) (31.9-74.9%) more lipid than male sperm whales of equivalent length, to fuel their annual migration. Relative lipid stores of sperm whales (males) were constant throughout the year, while those of humpback whales varied with reproductive class and sampling date. Pregnant female humpback whales had higher relative energy stores than non-pregnant females and males (26.2% and 37.4%, respectively), to fuel the energy demands of gestation and lactation. Those that reached the sampling site later (en route to their breeding grounds) carried higher lipid stores than those that arrived earlier, possibly reflecting individual variation in residency times in the Antarctic feeding grounds. Importantly, longer pregnant females had relatively larger energy stores than the shorter pregnant females, indicating that the smaller individuals may experience higher levels of energetic stress during the migration fast. The relationships we developed between body lipid and length can be used to inform bioenergetics and ecosystem models when such detailed information is not available.

Contrasting behavior between two populations of an ice-obligate predator in East Antarctica

The Austral autumn–winter is a critical period for capital breeders such as Weddell seals that must optimize resource acquisition and storage to provision breeding in the subsequent spring. However, how Weddell seals find food in the winter months remains poorly documented. We equipped adult Weddell seals after their annual molt with satellite‐relayed data loggers at two sites in East Antarctica: Dumont D'Urville (n = 12, DDU) and Davis (n = 20). We used binomial generalized mixed‐effect models to investigate Weddell seals’ behavioral response (i.e., “hunting” vs. “transit”) to physical aspects of their environment (e.g., ice concentration). Weddell seal foraging was concentrated to within 5 km of a breathing hole, and they appear to move between holes as local food is depleted. There were regional differences in behavior so that seals at Davis traveled greater distances (three times more) and spent less time in hunting mode (half the time) than seals at DDU. Despite these differences, hunting dives at both locations were pelagic, concentrated in areas of high ice concentration, and over areas of complex bathymetry. There was also a seasonal change in diving behavior from transiting early in the season to more hunting during winter. Our observations suggest that Weddell seal foraging behavior is plastic and that they respond behaviorally to changes in their environment to maximize food acquisition and storage. Such plasticity is a hallmark of animals that live in very dynamic environments such as the high Antarctic where resources are unpredictable.

Seal mothers expend more on offspring under favourable conditions and less when resources are limited

In mammals, maternal expenditure on offspring is a complex mix of several factors including the species' mating system, offspring sex and the condition and age of the mother. While theory suggests that in polygynous species mothers should wean larger male offspring than females when resources and maternal conditions allow, the evidence for this remains equivocal. Southern elephant seals are highly dimorphic, polygynous capital breeders existing in an environment with highly variable resources and should therefore provide clear evidence to support the theoretical expectations of differential maternal expenditure in male and female pups. We quantified maternal size (mass and length) and pup size at birth and weaning for 342 elephant seal mothers at Macquarie Island. The study was conducted over 11 years of contrasting sea-ice and Southern Annular Mode values, both indices of maternal prey resources. Overall, large females weaned male pups that weighed 17 kg (15·5%) more than female pups. Maternal condition varied by as much as 59 kg among years, and was positively related to Southern Annular Mode, and negatively to maximum sea-ice extent. Smaller mothers weaned relatively larger male pups under favourable conditions, this effect was less apparent for larger mothers. We developed a simple model linking environmental variation to maternal masses post-partum, followed by maternal masses post-partum to weaning masses and then weaning masses to pup survival and demonstrated that environmental conditions affected predicted survival so that the pups of small mothers had an estimated 7% increase in first year survival in 'good' vs. 'bad' years compared to 1% for female pups of large mothers. Co-occurrence of environmental quality and conservative reproductive tactics suggests that mothers retain substantial plasticity in maternal care, enhancing their lifetime reproductive success by adjusting reproductive expenditure relative to both prevailing environmental conditions and their own capabilities.

A novel field method to distinguish between cryptic carcharhinid sharks, Australian blacktip shark Carcharhinus tilstoni and common blacktip shark C. limbatus, despite the presence of hybrids

Multivariate and machine-learning methods were used to develop field identification techniques for two species of cryptic blacktip shark. From 112 specimens, precaudal vertebrae (PCV) counts and molecular analysis identified 95 Australian blacktip sharks Carcharhinus tilstoni and 17 common blacktip sharks Carcharhinus limbatus. Molecular analysis also revealed 27 of the 112 were C. tilstoni × C. limbatus hybrids, of which 23 had C. tilstoni PCV counts and four had C. limbatus PCV counts. In the absence of further information about hybrid phenotypes, hybrids were assigned as either C. limbatus or C. tilstoni based on PCV counts. Discriminant analysis achieved 80% successful identification, but machine-learning models were better, achieving 100% successful identification, using six key measurements (fork length, caudal-fin peduncle height, interdorsal space, second dorsal-fin height, pelvic-fin length and pelvic-fin midpoint to first dorsal-fin insertion). Furthermore, pelvic-fin markings could be used for identification: C. limbatus has a distinct black mark >3% of the total pelvic-fin area, while C. tilstoni has markings with diffuse edges, or has smaller or no markings. Machine learning and pelvic-fin marking identification methods were field tested achieving 87 and 90% successful identification, respectively. With further refinement, the techniques developed here will form an important part of a multi-faceted approach to identification of C. tilstoni and C. limbatus and have a clear management and conservation application to these commercially important sharks. The methods developed here are broadly applicable and can be used to resolve species identities in many fisheries where cryptic species exist.

It’s a girl! A female southern elephant seal born in Western Australia

Southern elephant seals typically breed on subantarctic islands and breeding in more temperate regions is rare. This small female (~1.42 m) that weaned after 25 days is smaller than the average weaned female elephant seal and her survival prospects are correspondingly low (20–35%). The fact that the elephant seal was successfully weaned offers some insight into the breeding plasticity in this species.

The suppression of Antarctic bottom water formation by melting ice shelves in Prydz Bay

A fourth production region for the globally important Antarctic bottom water has been attributed to dense shelf water formation in the Cape Darnley Polynya, adjoining Prydz Bay in East Antarctica. Here we show new observations from CTD-instrumented elephant seals in 2011–2013 that provide the first complete assessment of dense shelf water formation in Prydz Bay. After a complex evolution involving opposing contributions from three polynyas (positive) and two ice shelves (negative), dense shelf water (salinity 34.65–34.7) is exported through Prydz Channel. This provides a distinct, relatively fresh contribution to Cape Darnley bottom water. Elsewhere, dense water formation is hindered by the freshwater input from the Amery and West Ice Shelves into the Prydz Bay Gyre. This study highlights the susceptibility of Antarctic bottom water to increased freshwater input from the enhanced melting of ice shelves, and ultimately the potential collapse of Antarctic bottom water formation in a warming climate.

Antarctic bottom water (AABW) production is critical to the global ocean overturning circulation. Here, the authors show new observations of AABW formation from seal CTD data in Prydz Bay, East Antarctica that highlights its susceptibility to increased freshwater input from the melting of ice shelves.

Nesting ecology of hawksbill turtles at a rookery of international significance in Australia’s Northern Territory

Context Following centuries of intense human exploitation, the global stocks of hawksbill turtle have decreased precipitously and the species is currently considered Critically Endangered by the IUCN. Australia supports the largest breeding aggregations worldwide; however, there are no accurate estimates of population abundance and seasonality for hawksbill turtles at important nesting grounds in eastern Arnhem Land. Aims This study was designed to fill in this lack of ecological information and assist with the conservation and management of hawksbill turtles. More specifically, our overarching goals were to assess nesting seasonality, habitat preferences and provide the first estimate of annual nesting population size at a Northern Territory rookery. Methods In 2009 and 2010 we collected beach monitoring, satellite telemetry and sand temperature data over two nesting seasons at a group of three islands located 30 km off Groote Eylandt in the Gulf of Carpentaria, northern Australia. We subsequently analysed these data to unravel hawksbill nesting behaviour and reproductive outputs, and examined the vulnerability of this rookery to climate change. Key results Hawksbill turtle nesting seasonality consistently started in mid-May, peaked in mid-August and ended in late November. Annual nesting abundance showed a near 3-fold increase between 2009 and 2010, with an average of 220 and 580 hawksbill females nesting on this island group respectively. Sand temperature at 50 cm reached more than 30°C at all monitored sites during most of the peak of the incubation period. Conclusions This remote and untouched group of islands constitutes a major hawksbill turtle rookery both nationally and globally. While anthropogenic impacts and predation are low year round, climate change threatens to skew hatchling sex ratios, eventually leading to an increase in hatchling mortality. Implications Additional ground-based surveys are required to refine the accuracy of population estimates presented in this study. Given the paucity of data in the region, we recommend this island group off Groote Eylandt be used as a population-monitoring index site for the eastern Arnhem Land hawksbill turtle breeding aggregation.

Age-specific cost of first reproduction in female southern elephant seals

When to commence breeding is a crucial life-history decision that may be the most important determinant of an individual's lifetime reproductive output and can have major consequences on population dynamics. The age at which individuals first reproduce is an important factor influencing the intensity of potential costs (e.g. reduced survival) involved in the first breeding event. However, quantifying age-related variation in the cost of first reproduction in wild animals remains challenging because of the difficulty in reliably recording the first breeding event. Here, using a multi-event capture-recapture model that accounts for both imperfect detection and uncertainty in the breeding status on an 18-year dataset involving 6637 individuals, we estimated age and state-specific survival of female elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) in the declining Macquarie Island population. We detected a clear cost of first reproduction on survival. This cost was higher for both younger first-time breeders and older first-time breeders compared with females recruiting at age four, the overall mean age at first reproduction. Neither earlier primiparity nor delaying primiparity appear to confer any evolutionary advantage, rather the optimal strategy seems to be to start breeding at a single age, 4 years.

Satellites, the all-seeing eyes in the sky: counting elephant seals from space

Regular censuses are fundamental for the management of animal populations but, are logistically challenging for species living in remote regions. The advent of readily accessible, high resolution satellite images of earth mean that it is possible to resolve relatively small (0.6 m) objects, sufficient to discern large animals. To illustrate how these advances can be used to count animals in remote regions, individual elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) were counted using satellite imagery. We used an image taken on 10/10/2011 to count elephant seals (n = 1790 ± 306 (95%CL)) on the isthmus of Macquarie Island, an estimate which overlapped with concurrent ground counts (n = 1991). The number of individuals per harem estimated using the two approaches were highly correlated, with a slope close to one and the estimated intercept also encompassing zero. This proof of concept opens the way for satellites to be used as a standard censusing technique for inaccessible and cryptically coloured species. Quantifying the population trends of higher order predators provides an especially informative and tractable indicator of ecosystem health.

Bottom-up regulation of a pole-ward migratory predator population

As the effects of regional climate change are most pronounced at polar latitudes, we might expect polar-ward migratory populations to respond as habitat suitability changes. The southern elephant seal (Mirounga leonina L.) is a pole-ward migratory species whose populations have mostly stabilized or increased in the past decade, the one exception being the Macquarie Island population which has decreased continuously over the past 50 years. To explore probable causes of this anomalous trend, we counted breeding female seals annually between 1988 and 2011 in order to relate annual rates of population change (r) to foraging habitat changes that have known connections with atmospheric variability. We found r (i) varied annually from -0.016 to 0.021 over the study period, (ii) was most effected by anomalous atmospheric variability after a 3 year time lag was introduced (R = 0.51) and (iii) was associated with sea-ice duration (SID) within the seals' foraging range at the same temporal lag. Negative r years may be extrapolated to explain, at least partially, the overall trend in seal abundance at Macquarie Island; specifically, increasing SID within the seals foraging range has a negative influence on their abundance at the island. Evidence is accruing that suggests southern elephant seal populations may respond positively to a reduced sea-ice field.

Known unknowns in an imperfect world: incorporating uncertainty in recruitment estimates using multi-event capture-recapture models

Studying the demography of wild animals remains challenging as several of the critical parts of their life history may be difficult to observe in the field. In particular, determining with certainty when an individual breeds for the first time is not always obvious. This can be problematic because uncertainty about the transition from a prebreeder to a breeder state - recruitment - leads to uncertainty in vital rate estimates and in turn in population projection models. To avoid this issue, the common practice is to discard imperfect data from the analyses. However, this practice can generate a bias in vital rate estimates if uncertainty is related to a specific component of the population and reduces the sample size of the dataset and consequently the statistical power to detect effects of biological interest. Here, we compared the demographic parameters assessed from a standard multistate capture-recapture approach to the estimates obtained from the newly developed multi-event framework that specifically accounts for uncertainty in state assessment. Using a comprehensive longitudinal dataset on southern elephant seals, we demonstrated that the multi-event model enabled us to use all the data collected (6639 capture-recapture histories vs. 4179 with the multistate model) by accounting for uncertainty in breeding states, thereby increasing the precision and accuracy of the demographic parameter estimates. The multi-event model allowed us to incorporate imperfect data into demographic analyses. The gain in precision obtained has important implications in the conservation and management of species because limiting uncertainty around vital rates will permit predicting population viability with greater accuracy.

Estimating resource acquisition and at-sea body condition of a marine predator

1. Body condition plays a fundamental role in many ecological and evolutionary processes at a variety of scales and across a broad range of animal taxa. An understanding of how body condition changes at fine spatial and temporal scales as a result of interaction with the environment provides necessary information about how animals acquire resources. 2. However, comparatively little is known about intra- and interindividual variation of condition in marine systems. Where condition has been studied, changes typically are recorded at relatively coarse time-scales. By quantifying how fine-scale interaction with the environment influences condition, we can broaden our understanding of how animals acquire resources and allocate them to body stores. 3. Here we used a hierarchical Bayesian state-space model to estimate the body condition as measured by the size of an animal's lipid store in two closely related species of marine predator that occupy different hemispheres: northern elephant seals (Mirounga angustirostris) and southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina). The observation model linked drift dives to lipid stores. The process model quantified daily changes in lipid stores as a function of the physiological condition of the seal (lipid:lean tissue ratio, departure lipid and departure mass), its foraging location, two measures of behaviour and environmental covariates. 4. We found that physiological condition significantly impacted lipid gain at two time-scales - daily and at departure from the colony - that foraging location was significantly associated with lipid gain in both species of elephant seals and that long-term behavioural phase was associated with positive lipid gain in northern and southern elephant seals. In northern elephant seals, the occurrence of short-term behavioural states assumed to represent foraging were correlated with lipid gain. Lipid gain was a function of covariates in both species. Southern elephant seals performed fewer drift dives than northern elephant seals and gained lipids at a lower rate. 5. We have demonstrated a new way to obtain time series of body condition estimates for a marine predator at fine spatial and temporal scales. This modelling approach accounts for uncertainty at many levels and has the potential to integrate physiological and movement ecology of top predators. The observation model we used was specific to elephant seals, but the process model can readily be applied to other species, providing an opportunity to understand how animals respond to their environment at a fine spatial scale.

Impact of a toxic invasive species on freshwater crocodile (Crocodylus johnstoni) populations in upstream escarpments

Context Spread of the invasive cane toad (Rhinella marina) across northern Australia is of concern. Predator species, including the freshwater crocodile (Crocodylus johnstoni), are susceptible to cane toad toxins when ingested. Upstream populations of freshwater crocodiles are smaller than downstream counterparts because of limited resources. We measured the impact of cane toad arrival on densities of these upstream populations. Aims Our aim was to determine whether the influx of cane toads had a negative impact on populations of upstream ‘stunted’ freshwater crocodiles. Methods Population surveys for crocodiles were conducted in three upstream creek systems, using day- and night-based survey methods, before the arrival of cane toads in the area. These surveys were repeated under similar conditions following the arrival of cane toads, to compare the distribution and densities of freshwater crocodiles and, hence, measure the impact of cane toads. Key results There were significant declines in crocodile density at two survey sites following the arrival of cane toads, and we found dead crocodiles and cane toad carcasses with crocodile bite marks. The third site showed no change in density. There was a decline in mean density across all sites from 3.0 crocodiles km–1 to 1.1 crocodiles km–1 following the arrival of cane toads. Conclusions There was an overall decrease in crocodile densities and a reduction in distribution following the arrival of cane toads into the survey area. Dead crocodiles and evidence of their having eaten cane toads strongly suggest that these declines were caused directly by the arrival of cane toads into the area. One site showed no apparent change other than an increase in wariness, which may reflect the distribution of available feeding and shelter resources among the three sites. Implications These results suggest that upstream freshwater crocodile populations are highly susceptible to cane toad toxins, and that impacts on their population can include local extirpation. Considering their morphological and possibly genetic distinctiveness, the loss of these unique populations is of conservation concern.

Long-term breeding phenology shift in royal penguins

The Earth's climate is undergoing rapid warming, unprecedented in recent times, which is driving shifts in the distribution and phenology of many plants and animals. Quantifying changes in breeding phenology is important for understanding how populations respond to these changes. While data on shifts in phenology are common for Northern Hemisphere species (especially birds), there is a dearth of evidence from the Southern Hemisphere, and even fewer data available from the marine environment. Surface air temperatures at Macquarie Island have increased by 0.62°C during the 30-year study period (0.21°C decade⁻¹) and royal penguins (Eudyptes schlegeli) commenced egg laying on average three days earlier in the 1990s than during the 1960s. This contrasts with other studies of Southern Ocean seabirds; five of nine species are now breeding on average 2.1 days later than during the 1950s. Despite the different direction of these trends, they can be explained by a single underlying mechanism: resource availability. There was a negative relationship between the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and median laying date of royal penguins, such that low-productivity (low SAM) years delayed laying date. This accords with the observations of other seabird species from the Antarctic, where later laying dates were associated with lower sea ice and lower spring productivity. The unifying factor underpinning phenological trends in eastern Antarctica is therefore resource availability; as food becomes scarcer, birds breed later. These changes are not uniform across the region, however, with resource increases in the subantarctic and decreases in eastern Antarctica.

Enhancing the use of Argos satellite data for home range and long distance migration studies of marine animals

Accurately quantifying animals’ spatial utilisation is critical for conservation, but has long remained an elusive goal due to technological impediments. The Argos telemetry system has been extensively used to remotely track marine animals, however location estimates are characterised by substantial spatial error. State-space models (SSM) constitute a robust statistical approach to refine Argos tracking data by accounting for observation errors and stochasticity in animal movement. Despite their wide use in ecology, few studies have thoroughly quantified the error associated with SSM predicted locations and no research has assessed their validity for describing animal movement behaviour. We compared home ranges and migratory pathways of seven hawksbill sea turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata) estimated from (a) highly accurate Fastloc GPS data and (b) locations computed using common Argos data analytical approaches. Argos 68^th percentile error was <1 km for LC 1, 2, and 3 while markedly less accurate (>4 km) for LC ≤0. Argos error structure was highly longitudinally skewed and was, for all LC, adequately modelled by a Student’s t distribution. Both habitat use and migration routes were best recreated using SSM locations post-processed by re-adding good Argos positions (LC 1, 2 and 3) and filtering terrestrial points (mean distance to migratory tracks ± SD = 2.2±2.4 km; mean home range overlap and error ratio  = 92.2% and 285.6 respectively). This parsimonious and objective statistical procedure however still markedly overestimated true home range sizes, especially for animals exhibiting restricted movements. Post-processing SSM locations nonetheless constitutes the best analytical technique for remotely sensed Argos tracking data and we therefore recommend using this approach to rework historical Argos datasets for better estimation of animal spatial utilisation for research and evidence-based conservation purposes.

Publish or perish: why it’s important to publicise how, and if, research activities affect animals

Wildlife researchers and conservation biologists are encountering growing research difficulties due to strong and effective advocacy of animal welfare concerns. However, collecting information on the basic biology of animals, which is often essential to effective conservation and management, frequently involves invasive research. The latter is unacceptable to some animal welfare advocates, even if it ultimately leads to better conservation outcomes. For effective biodiversity conservation it is imperative that conservation and wildlife researchers lucidly present the case for their research on individual animals. This requires conservation biologists and the research community in general, to present these arguments in the public domain as well as in peer-reviewed literature. Moreover, it is important to measure how these activities affect animals. Only then can we show that high quality research activities often have little or no effects on animal vital rates and performance.