Combining tumor deposits with the number of lymph node metastases to improve the prognostic accuracy in stage III colon cancer: a post hoc analysis of the CALGB/SWOG 80702 phase III study (Alliance)☆

Negative prognostic impact of tumor deposits in stage III colorectal cancer patients

BACKGROUND

The prognostic value of tumor deposits (TDs) in stage III colorectal cancer (CRC) patients is poorly described based on the current tumor node metastasis (TNM) stage system.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Based on the data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Result (SEER) database between 2010 to 2020 and local hospital between 2006 to 2022, the clinicopathological features of stage III CRC patients with TDs were screened by Chi-square test. Kaplan-Meier curves were performed to describe the significant difference in overall survival (OS) among the different groups, and log-rank tests were used to compare the cumulative survival distributions.

RESULT

Patients with TDs exhibited more aggressive tumors, characterized by advanced T staging (T3&T4), N staging (N2), perineural invasion, and more advanced TNM stage. The presence of TDs was identified as a negative prognostic factor in stage III CRC patients, with the co-existence of TDs and lymph node metastasis associated the poorest prognosis. A pairwise comparison revealed no statistically significant difference between TD+N1a/b and N1c groups, while the OS of TD-LN+ (TD- N1a/b) patients was the most favorable within the N1 stage. Notably, patients with a single lymph node positive had a significantly better OS than those with a single TD positive.

CONCLUSION

The presence of tumor deposits was a negative prognostic factor in stage III colorectal cancer patients, and the significance of tumor deposits was underestimated in the current TNM staging system.

Tumor deposits should not be placed in the M category of TNM: A comparative survival analysis using SEER data

Tumor deposits (TD) are tumor nodules in the lymphatic drainage area of colorectal cancer patients, and they are currently classified in the N category in the TNM classification. However, due to the associated poor prognosis, some small cohort studies suggest that TD belong in the M category. A retrospective study using The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program (SEER) data was performed in Stages III and IV colon carcinoma (CC) patients to evaluate the prognostic impact of TD. In multivariate analysis, TD have significantly negative effect on survival in both stages (Stage III HR = 1.4 [95% CI 1.4-1.5] and Stage IV HR = 1.3 [95% CI 1.2-1.3]). In Stage III, 5-year overall survival (OS) for patients with TD 49%, whereas it was 64% for patients without TD (p < .001). Additionally, in Stage IV patients without TD, the 5-year OS rates are superior at 21% compared to patients with TD, who show 5-year OS rate of 10% (p < .001). Stage III patients with TD (5-year OS 49%) have a significantly better prognosis compared to Stage IV patients (5-year OS 17%, p < .001). Therefore, despite the previous suggestions, this large scale study (n = 52,332) on outcomes in CC does not support the classification of TD in Stage IV.

Tumor Deposits as an Adverse Prognostic Indicator in Stage III Colon Cancer: A Multicenter Database Study

Objective

We explored the oncological impact of tumor deposits (TDs) on colon cancer and proposed optimal modifications to the current staging system.

Background

In the existing American Joint Committee on Cancer colon cancer staging system, TDs are incorporated into the N category as N1c. When lymph node metastases (LNMs) are present, their number is considered to determine nodal stages, such as N1a/b or N2a/b, regardless of TDs.

Methods

4212 patients with primary colon cancer who underwent surgical resection in the Seoul Colorectal Group (2010-2020) and 93,057 patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results*Stat database (2000-2017) were included in this study. Patients were classified according to the number of metastatic lymph nodes (LNs) (0/1-3/≥4) and the presence of TDs.

Results

TDs were significantly associated with left colon cancer, a higher T category, and vascular/perineural invasion. Patients with TDs had higher recurrence rates (23.1 vs 7.5%, P < 0.001). The TD-positive patients had notably worse overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival rates. The survival outcomes of TD-positive patients without LNM were inferior to those of TD-negative patients with LN1-3 (5-year OS: 78.9 vs 87.8%, P = 0.04). The survival outcomes of TD-positive patients with LN1-3 were similar to those of TD-negative patients with LN ≥4 (5-year OS: 87.0 vs 77.1%, P = 0.11). Survival outcomes obtained using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results *Stat database yielded consistent results.

Conclusions

TDs were associated with poor prognostic factors and had a significant impact on survival outcomes. The incorporation of tumor deposits into nodal classifications beyond the current N1c criteria may improve the staging system and more accurately reflect the recurrence and survival rates among patients with colon cancer. TD-positive in N1a or N1b could be categorized as N2.

Unraveling the crosstalk: circRNAs and the wnt signaling pathway in cancers of the digestive system

Circular RNA (circRNA) is a unique type of noncoding RNA molecule characterized by its closed-loop structure. Functionally versatile, circRNAs play pivotal roles in gene expression regulation, protein activity modulation, and participation in cell signaling processes. In the context of cancers of the digestive system, the Wnt signaling pathway holds particular significance. Anomalous activation of the Wnt pathway serves as a primary catalyst for the development of colorectal cancer. Extensive research underscores the notable participation of circRNAs associated with the Wnt pathway in the progression of digestive system tumors. These circRNAs exhibit pronounced dysregulation across esophageal cancer, gastric cancer, liver cancer, colorectal cancer, pancreatic cancer, and cholangiocarcinoma. Furthermore, the altered expression of circRNAs linked to the Wnt pathway correlates with prognostic factors in digestive system tumors. Additionally, circRNAs related to the Wnt pathway showcase potential as diagnostic, therapeutic, and prognostic markers within the realm of digestive system tumors. This comprehensive review outlines the interplay between circRNAs and the Wnt signaling pathway in cancers of the digestive system. It seeks to provide a comprehensive perspective on their association while delving into ongoing research that explores the clinical applications of circRNAs associated with the Wnt pathway.

Tumour deposits are associated with worse survival than extranodal extension; a network meta-analysis on tumour nodules in colorectal cancer

Lymph node metastases (LNM) play a central role in the tumour-node-metastasis (TNM) classification for colorectal cancer (CRC), with extranodal extension (ENE) as an adverse feature. ENE has never been directly compared to tumour deposits (TD). The aim of this study was to perform an up-to-date systematic review, including a network meta-analysis to compare their prognostic value. A comprehensive search was conducted on PubMed, Embase, Web of Science and Cochrane databases to identify all prognostic studies on ENE and TD. A total of 20 studies were included, with 7719 cases. The primary outcome was 5-year disease-free survival (DFS); secondary outcomes were overall survival (OS) and disease-specific survival (DSS). Frequentist paired and network meta-analyses were performed using the netmeta package in R. For univariable DFS analysis, LNM + TD+ cases had a significantly worse outcome compared with LNM + ENE+ cases [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.27, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.06-1.53], which was no longer significant for multivariable DFS analysis (HR = 1.13, 95% CI = 0.87-1.46). All OS and multivariable DSS analyses showed a significantly worse outcome for LNM + TD+ cases compared with LNM + ENE cases. For all outcomes, both LNM + TD+ and LNM + ENE+ had a significantly increased hazard compared with LNM+ cases. This study shows that there is a trend towards worse outcome for LNM + TD+ than LNM + ENE+, not statistically significant in multivariable DFS analysis. Both groups perform significantly worse than cases with LNM only. To improve the accuracy of CRC staging, we recommend to put more emphasis on both ENE and TD in the TNM classification, with the most prominent role for TD.

Micro-Computed Tomography Whole-Block Imaging Reveals Origin and Path of Rectal Cancer Tumor Deposits: A Pilot Study

In colorectal carcinoma (CRC), tumor deposits (TDs) are described as macroscopic/microscopic nests/nodules in the lymph drainage area discontinuous with the primary mass, without identifiable lymph node (LN) tissue, and not confined to vascular or perineural spaces. A TD is categorized as pN1C only when no bona fide LN metastasis exists. However, there has been an ongoing debate on whether TDs should be counted as LNs. The fact that the origin of TDs is not fully understood adds further uncertainty. This pilot study aims to evaluate whether whole-block imaging by micro-computed tomography (micro-CT WBI) that enables three-dimensional reconstruction of whole-mount (WM) blocks can serve as a tool to assess the origin and path of CRC TDs. We evaluated whole-slide imaging (WSI) and micro-CT WBI of 20 WM blocks from a rectal cancer resection that contained TDs. Each TD was tracked through the contiguous blocks to define their origin and path. Of eleven TDs identified on WSI, six were detected on WBI. Strikingly, six of six TDs trackable through the blocks on WBI revealed an origin from the main tumor. This pilot study provided evidence that micro-CT WBI can serve as an effective tool to evaluate the origin and path of CRC TDs.

Prognostic Value of Tumor Deposits in Patients with Colorectal Cancer

Tumor nodules or tumor deposits (TDs) are a histopathological prognostic factor that are associated with a negative evolutionary course in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC). There are still controversial aspects of TDs, including how they should be integrated into the TNM classification system. The objective of this study was to analyze the predictive value of TDs for cancer-related survival (CRS) and time-to-recurrence survival (TTR) and to evaluate the prognostic value of TDs in patients whose tumors also presented lymph node metastasis (LNM). In this retrospective observational study, all patients treated for CRC between January 2010 and December 2020 at the same hospital were included. CRS and TTR were classified by tumor stage. The results were compared between patients whose tumors had TDs and patients whose tumors did not. A total of 1426 patients met the criteria for inclusion in the analysis. TDs were detected in 178 patients (12.5%): 60 had tumors without LNM, and 118 had LNM. Patients with TD tumors had a lower CRS at 60 months after diagnosis (42% vs. 82%; p < 0.001) and a shorter TTR (34% vs. 79%; p < 0.001). Cox multiple regression analysis revealed that the presence of TD was associated with an increased risk of death from CRC (HR: 1.820; 95% CI: 1.327-2.496) and an increased risk of recurrence (HR: 2.315; 95% CI: 1.743-3.073). In each N stage category, the CRS was significantly lower in the subgroup with TD+: in patients with N1a tumors, the CRS was 44% when TD+ vs. 70% when TD- (p = 0.019); in the N1b group it was 36% vs. 66% (p < 0.001); in the N2a group it was 34% vs. 58% (p = 0.012); and in N2b tumors it was 23% vs. 53% (p = 0.031). The present study shows that the information on the presence of TDs is complementary to that provided by LNM and allows the identification of subgroups of patients in each N stage determined by two metrics, CRS and TTR. TDs should be included in the definition of TNM system categories in patients who simultaneously present with LNM.

Evaluating the prognostic value of tumor deposits in non-metastatic lymph node-positive colon adenocarcinoma using Cox regression and machine learning

BACKGROUND

The 8th AJCC TNM staging for non-metastatic lymph node-positive colon adenocarcinoma patients(NMLP-CA) stages solely by lymph node status, irrespective of the positivity of tumor deposits (TD). This study uses machine learning and Cox regression to predict the prognostic value of tumor deposits in NMLP-CA.

METHODS

Patient data from the SEER registry (2010-2019) was used to develop CSS nomograms based on prognostic factors identified via multivariate Cox regression. Model performance was evaluated by c-index, dynamic calibration, and Schmid score. Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) were used to explain the selected models.

RESULTS

The study included 16,548 NMLP-CA patients, randomized 7:3 into training (n = 11,584) and test (n = 4964) sets. Multivariate Cox analysis identified TD, age, marital status, primary site, grade, pT stage, and pN stage as prognostic for cancer-specific survival (CSS). In the test set, the gradient boosting machine (GBM) model achieved the best C-index (0.733) for CSS prediction, while the Cox model and GAMBoost model optimized dynamic calibration(6.473) and Schmid score (0.285), respectively. TD ranked among the top 3 most important features in the models, with increasing predictive significance over time.

CONCLUSIONS

Positive tumor deposit status confers worse prognosis in NMLP-CA patients. Tumor deposits may confer higher TNM staging. Furthermore, TD could play a more significant role in the staging system.

Prognostic value of tumor deposits and positive lymph node ratio in stage III colorectal cancer: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

In colorectal cancer (CRC), tumor deposits (TD) have been used to guide the N staging only in node-negative patients. It remains unknown about the prognostic value of TD in combination with positive lymph node ratio (LNR) in stage III CRC.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The authors analyzed data from 31 139 eligible patients diagnosed with stage III CRC, including 30 230 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database as a training set and 909 from two Chinese hospitals as a validation set. The associations of TD and LNR with cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) were evaluated using the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression models.

RESULTS

Both TD-positive and high LNR (value ≥0.4) were associated with worse CSS in the training [multivariable hazard ratio (HR), 1.50; 95% CI: 1.43-1.58 and HR, 1.74; 95% CI: 1.62-1.86, respectively] and validation sets (HR, 1.90; 95% CI: 1.41-2.54 and HR, 2.01; 95% CI: 1.29-3.15, respectively). Compared to patients with TD-negative and low LNR (value<0.4), those with TD-positive and high LNR had a 4.09-fold risk of CRC-specific death in the training set (HR, 4.09; 95% CI: 3.54-4.72) and 4.60-fold risk in the validation set (HR, 4.60; 95% CI: 2.88-7.35). Patients with TD-positive/H-LNR CRC on the right side had the worst prognosis ( P <0.001). The combined variable of TD and LNR contributed the most to CSS prediction in the training (24.26%) and validation (32.31%) sets. A nomogram including TD and LNR showed satisfactory discriminative ability, and calibration curves indicated favorable consistency in both the training and validation sets.

CONCLUSIONS

TD and LNR represent independent prognostic predictors for stage III CRC. A combination of TD and LNR could be used to identify those at high-risk of CRC deaths.

Radiomics based on T2-weighted and diffusion-weighted MR imaging for preoperative prediction of tumor deposits in rectal cancer

AIM

Preoperative diagnosis of tumor deposits (TDs) in patients with rectal cancer remains a challenge. This study aims to develop and validate a radiomics nomogram based on the combination of T2-weighted (T2WI) and diffusion-weighted MR imaging (DWI) for the preoperative identification of TDs in rectal cancer.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 199 patients with rectal cancer who underwent T2WI and DWI were retrospectively enrolled and divided into a training set (n ​= ​159) and a validation set (n ​= ​40). The total incidence of TDs was 37.2 ​% (74/199). Radiomics features were extracted from T2WI and apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) images. A radiomics nomogram combining Rad-score (T2WI ​+ ​ADC) and clinical factors was subsequently constructed. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was then calculated to evaluate the models. The nomogram is also compared to three machine learning model constructed based on no-Rad scores.

RESULTS

The Rad-score (T2WI ​+ ​ADC) achieved an AUC of 0.831 in the training and 0.859 in the validation set. The radiomics nomogram (the combined model), incorporating the Rad-score (T2WI ​+ ​ADC), MRI-reported lymph node status (mLN-status), and CA19-9, showed good discrimination of TDs with an AUC of 0.854 for the training and 0.923 for the validation set, which was superior to Random Forests, Support Vector Machines, and Deep Learning models. The combined model for predicting TDs outperformed the other three machine learning models showed an accuracy of 82.5 ​% in the validation set, with sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of 66.7 ​%, 92.0 ​%, 83.3 ​%, and 82.1 ​%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The radiomics nomogram based on Rad-score (T2WI ​+ ​ADC) and clinical factors provides a promising and effective method for the preoperative prediction of TDs in patients with rectal cancer.

Pathological-Features-Modified TNM Staging System Improves Prognostic Accuracy for Rectal Cancer

BACKGROUND

Variations in survival outcomes are observed in the eighth edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer TNM staging system.

OBJECTIVE

Machine learning ensemble methods were used to develop and evaluate the effectiveness of a pathological-features-modified TNM staging system in predicting survival for patients with rectal cancer by use of commonly reported pathological features, such as histological grade, tumor deposits, and perineural invasion, to improve the prognostic accuracy.

DESIGN

This was a retrospective population-based study.

SETTINGS

Data were assessed from the database of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program.

PATIENTS

The study cohort comprised 14,468 patients with rectal cancer diagnosed between 2010 and 2015. The development cohort included those who underwent surgery as the primary treatment, whereas patients who received neoadjuvant therapy were assigned to the validation cohort.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome measures included cumulative rectal cancer survival, adjusted HRs, and both calibration and discrimination statistics to evaluate model performance and internal validation.

RESULTS

Multivariable Cox regression analysis identified all 3 pathological features as prognostic factors, after which patients were categorized into 4 pathological groups based on the number of pathological features (ie, 0, 1, 2, and 3). Distinct survival differences were observed among the groups, especially with patients with stage III rectal cancer. The proposed pathological-features-modified TNM staging outperformed the TNM staging in both the development and validation cohorts.

LIMITATIONS

Retrospective in design and lack of external validation.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed pathological-features-modified TNM staging could complement the current TNM staging by improving the accuracy of survival estimation of patients with rectal cancer. See Video Abstract .

EL SISTEMA DE ESTADIFICACIN TNM CON CARACTERSTICAS PATOLGICAS MODIFICADO MEJORA LA PRECISIN DEL PRONSTICO DEL CNCER DE RECTO

ANTECEDENTES:Se observan variaciones en los resultados de supervivencia en el sistema de estadificación TNM del Comité Conjunto Americano del Cáncer 8º ediciónOBJETIVO:Se utilizaron métodos conjuntos de aprendizaje automático para desarrollar y evaluar la eficacia de un sistema de estadificación con características patológicas modificadas de tumores, ganglios y metástasis para predecir la supervivencia de pacientes con cáncer de recto, utilizando algunas características patológicas comúnmente informadas, como el grado histológico, depósitos tumorales e invasión perineural, para mejorar la precisión del pronóstico.DISEÑO:Este fue un estudio retrospectivo de base poblacional.ENTERNO CLINICO:Se recuperaron y evaluaron datos de la base de datos de Vigilancia, Epidemiología y Resultados Finales.PACIENTES:La cohorte del estudio estuvo compuesta por 14,468 pacientes con cáncer de recto diagnosticados entre 2010 y 2015. La cohorte de desarrollo incluyó a aquellos que se sometieron a cirugía como tratamiento primario, mientras que los pacientes que recibieron terapia neoadyuvante fueron asignados a la cohorte de validación.PRINCIPALES MEDIDAS DE RESULTADO:Las medidas de resultado primarias incluyeron supervivencia acumulada del cáncer de recto, índices de riesgo ajustados y estadísticas de calibración y discriminación para evaluar el rendimiento del modelo y la validación interna.RESULTADOS:El análisis de regresión multivariable de Cox identificó las tres características patológicas como factores pronósticos, después de lo cual los pacientes se clasificaron en cuatro grupos patológicos según el número de características patológicas (es decir, 0, 1, 2 y 3). Se observaron distintas diferencias en la supervivencia entre los grupos, especialmente en los pacientes en estadio III. La estadificación propuesta con características patológicas modificadas de tumores-ganglios-metástasis superó a la estadificación TNM tanto en las cohortes de desarrollo como en las de validación.LIMITACIONES:Diseño retrospectivo y falta de validación externa.CONCLUSIONES:La estadificación propuesta con características patológicas modificadas de tumores-ganglios-metástasis podría complementar la estadificación TNM actual al mejorar la precisión de la estimación de supervivencia de los pacientes con cáncer de recto. (Traducción- Dr. Francisco M. Abarca-Rendon ).

Construction and validation of a nomogram for predicting disease-free survival after radical resection of rectal cancer using perioperative inflammatory indicators

Background

Colorectal cancer is a common digestive tract malignancy that seriously affects patients' quality of life and survival time. Surgery is the main treatment modality, but postoperative prognosis varies greatly. This study sought to explore the impact of perioperative inflammatory indicators on disease-free survival (DFS) in patients after radical resection of rectal cancer and to construct a nomogram for clinical reference.

Methods

A retrospective analysis was performed on 304 primary rectal adenocarcinoma patients who underwent laparoscopic radical resection of rectal cancer at the Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University from May 1, 2018 to September 30, 2020. The patients were divided into a training set (n=213) and a validation set (n=91) at a ratio of 7:3. The cut-off values of each inflammatory indicator based on the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were determined and each indicator was divided into high and low groups. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)-Cox regression model was used to analyze the independent risk factors affecting DFS, and a nomogram was established. The model was internally validated using the validation set, and the discrimination, calibration, and clinical application value of the nomogram were evaluated using ROC curve, calibration curve, and clinical decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

Tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage III, neural invasion, preoperative neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) ≥1.995, postoperative systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) ≥451.05, and Δpan-immune-inflammation value (ΔPIV) ≥144.36 (P<0.05) were independent factors for predicting the 3-year DFS of patients after rectal cancer surgery. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the nomogram was 0.811 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.778-0.889] in the training set and 0.808 (95% CI: 0.785-0.942) in the validation set. The nomogram showed good calibration, indicating good consistency between predicted and actual risks. DCA demonstrated the clinical utility of the nomogram.

Conclusions

The nomogram constructed based on TNM stage III, neural invasion, preoperative NLR ≥1.995, postoperative SII ≥451.05, and ΔPIV ≥144.36 can predict the risk of 3-year DFS in patients undergoing curative surgery for rectal cancer, enabling strict postoperative follow-up and timely adjuvant treatment for high-risk patients.

Prognostic and predictive value of tumor deposits in advanced signet ring cell colorectal cancer: SEER database analysis and multicenter validation

BACKGROUND

Colorectal signet-ring cell carcinoma (SRCC) is a rare cancer with a bleak prognosis. The relationship between its clinicopathological features and survival remains incompletely elucidated. Tumor deposits (TD) have been utilized to guide the N staging in the 8th edition of American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging manual, but their prognostic significance remains to be established in colorectal SRCC.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The subjects of this study were patients with stage III/IV colorectal SRCC who underwent surgical treatment. The research comprised two cohorts: a training cohort and a validation cohort. The training cohort consisted of 631 qualified patients from the SEER database, while the validation cohort included 135 eligible patients from four independent hospitals in China. The study assessed the impact of TD on Cancer-Specific Survival (CSS) and Overall Survival (OS) using Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Cox regression models. Additionally, a prognostic nomogram model was constructed for further evaluation.

RESULTS

In both cohorts, TD-positive patients were typically in the stage IV and exhibited the presence of perineural invasion (PNI) (P < 0.05). Compared to the TD-negative group, the TD-positive group showed significantly poorer CSS (the training cohort: HR, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.52-2.31; the validation cohort: HR, 2.43; 95% CI, 1.55-3.81; all P values < 0.001). This association was significant in stage III but not in stage IV. In the multivariate model, after adjusting for covariates, TD maintained an independent prognostic value (P < 0.05). A nomogram model including TD, N stage, T stage, TNM stage, CEA, and chemotherapy was constructed. Through internal and external validation, the model demonstrated good calibration and accuracy. Further survival curve analysis based on individual scores from the model showed good discrimination.

CONCLUSION

TD positivity is an independent factor of poor prognosis in colorectal SRCC patients, and it is more effective to predict the prognosis of colorectal SRCC by building a model with TD and other clinically related variables.

Tumour deposits are independently associated with recurrence in colon cancer

AIM

Tumour deposits are focal aggregates of cancer cells in pericolic fat and mesentery, distinct from vessels, nerves and lymphatics. Their presence upstages lymph node negative patients but is ignored in lymph node positive patients. We investigated the clinicopathological factors associated with tumour deposits and their impact on recurrence in lymph node positive and negative patients.

METHOD

Clinicopathological variables were collected from the medical records of patients with Stage I-III colon cancer who underwent resection in 2017-2019. Pathology was reviewed by a gastrointestinal pathologist. Patients with rectal cancer, metastasis, and concurrent malignancy were excluded.

RESULTS

Tumour deposits were noted in 69 (9%) of 770 patients. They were associated with the presence of lymph node metastasis, advanced T category, poorly differentiated tumours, microsatellite stable subtype and lymphovascular and perineural invasion (p < 0.05). The presence of tumour deposits (hazard ratio 2.48, 95% CI 1.49-4.10) and of lymph node metastasis (hazard ratio 3.04, 95% CI 1.72-5.37) were independently associated with decreased time to recurrence. There was a weak correlation (0.27) between the number of tumour deposits and the number of positive lymph nodes.

CONCLUSION

Tumour deposits are associated with more advanced disease and high-risk pathological features. The presence of tumour deposits and lymph node metastasis were found to be independent risk factors for decreased time to recurrence. A patient with both lymph node metastasis and tumour deposits is more than twice as likely to have recurrence compared with a patient with only lymph node metastasis. Tumour deposits independently predict recurrence and should not be ignored in lymph node positive patients.

Validation of a Clinical Calculator Predicting Freedom From Colon Cancer Recurrence After Surgery on the Basis of Molecular and Clinical Variables

BACKGROUND

The Memorial Sloan Kettering clinical calculator for estimating the likelihood of freedom from colon cancer recurrence on the basis of clinical and molecular variables was developed at a time when testing for microsatellite instability was performed selectively, based on patient age, family history, and histologic features. Microsatellite stability was assumed if no testing was done.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to validate the calculator in a cohort of patients who had all been tested for microsatellite instability.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort analysis.

SETTINGS

Comprehensive cancer center.

PATIENTS

This study included consecutive patients who underwent curative resection for stage I, II, or III colon cancer between 2017 and 2019.

INTERVENTION

Universal testing of mircrosatellite phenotype in all cases.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The calculator's predictive accuracy was assessed using the concordance index and a calibration plot of predicted versus actual freedom from recurrence at 3 years after surgery. For a secondary sensitivity analysis, the presence of a tumor deposit(s) (disease category N1c) was considered equivalent to one positive lymph node (category N1a).

RESULTS

With a median follow-up of 32 months among survivors, the concordance index for the 745 patients in the cohort was 0.748 (95% CI, 0.693-0.801), and a plot of predicted versus observed recurrences approached the 45° diagonal, indicating good discrimination and calibration. In the secondary sensitivity analysis for tumor deposits, the concordance index was 0.755 (95% CI, 0.700-0.806).

LIMITATIONS

This study was limited by its retrospective, single-institution design.

CONCLUSIONS

These results, based on inclusion of actual rather than imputed microsatellite stability status and presence of tumor deposits, confirm the predictive accuracy and reliability of the calculator. See Video Abstract .

VALIDACIN DE UNA CALCULADORA CLNICA QUE PREDICE LA AUSENCIA DE RECURRENCIA POSTQUIRURGICA DEL CNCER DE COLON SOBRE LA BASE DE VARIABLES MOLECULARES Y CLNICAS

ANTECEDENTES:La calculadora clínica del Memorial Sloan Kettering para la estimación de la probabilidad de ausencia de recurrencia del cáncer de colon sobre la base de variables clínicas y moleculares, se desarrolló en un momento en que las pruebas para la inestabilidad de microsatélites se realizaban de forma selectiva, basadas en la edad del paciente, los antecedentes familiares y las características histológicas. Se asumía la estabilidad micro satelital si no se realizaba ninguna prueba.OBJETIVO:El objetivo de este estudio fue validar la calculadora en una cohorte de pacientes a los que se les había realizado la prueba de inestabilidad de microsatélites.DISEÑO:Análisis de cohorte retrospectivo.AJUSTE:Centro integral de cáncer.PACIENTES:Pacientes consecutivos con cáncer de colon que fueron sometidos a resección curativa por cáncer de colon en estadios I, II o III entre los años 2017 y 2019.PRINCIPALES MEDIDAS DE RESULTADO:La precisión predictiva de la calculadora fue evaluada mediante el índice de concordancia y un gráfico de calibración de la ausencia de recurrencia predecida versus la real a los 3 años tras la cirugía. A los efectos de un análisis secundario de sensibilidad, la presencia de depósito(s) tumoral(es) (categoría de enfermedad N1c) se consideró equivalente a un ganglio linfático positivo (categoría N1a).RESULTADOS:Con una mediana de seguimiento de 32 meses entre los supervivientes, el índice de concordancia para los 745 pacientes de la cohorte fue de 0,748 (intervalo de confianza del 95 %, 0,693 a 0,801), y una gráfica de recurrencias previstas versus observadas se acercó a la diagonal de 45°, indicando una buena discriminación y calibración. En el análisis secundario de sensibilidad para depósitos tumorales, el índice de concordancia fue de 0,755 (intervalo de confianza del 95 %, 0,700 a 0,806).LIMITACIONES:Diseño retrospectivo, institución única.CONCLUSIONES:Estos resultados, basados en la inclusión real del estado de estabilidad de microsatélites en lugar de imputado y la presencia de depósitos tumorales, confirman la precisión predictiva y la confiabilidad de la calculadora. (Traducción-Dr Osvaldo Gauto ).

qRT-PCR analysis of CEACAM5, KLK6, SLC35D3, MUC2 and POSTN in colon cancer lymph nodes-An improved method for assessment of tumor stage and prognosis

One fourth of colorectal cancer patients having curative surgery will relapse of which the majority will die. Lymph node (LN) metastasis is the single most important prognostic factor and a key factor when deciding on postoperative treatment. Presently, LN metastases are identified by histopathological examination, a subjective method analyzing only a small LN volume and giving no information on tumor aggressiveness. To better identify patients at risk of relapse we constructed a qRT-PCR test, ColoNode, that determines levels of CEACAM5, KLK6, SLC35D3, MUC2 and POSTN mRNAs. Combined these biomarkers estimate the tumor cell load and aggressiveness allocating patients to risk categories with low (0, -1), medium (1), high (2) and very high (3) risk of recurrence. Here we present result of a prospective, national multicenter study including 196 colon cancer patients from 8 hospitals. On average, 21 LNs/patient, totally 4698 LNs, were examined by both histopathology and ColoNode. At 3-year follow-up, 36 patients had died from colon cancer or lived with recurrence. ColoNode identified all patients that were identified by histopathology and in addition 9 patients who were undetected by histopathology. Thus, 25% of the patients who recurred were identified by ColoNode only. Multivariate Cox regression analysis proved ColoNode (1, 2, 3 vs 0, -1) as a highly significant risk factor with HR 4.24 [95% confidence interval, 1.42-12.69, P = .01], while pTN-stage (III vs I/II) lost its univariate significance. In conclusion, ColoNode surpassed histopathology by identifying a significantly larger number of patients with future relapse and will be a valuable tool for decisions on postoperative treatment.

Toripalimab and fruquintinib therapy for colorectal cancer after failed multiline chemotherapies: a case report

The options for treating metastatic colorectal cancer are limited after failure of second-line chemotherapy. In this case report, we present the outcome of a 59-year-old male patient who underwent radical resection for rectal cancer in November 2018 and hepatectomy for liver metastasis in January 2021. His metastatic rectal cancer presented a remarkable response to the combination of fruquintinib and toripalimab after the failure of multiline chemotherapies. The patient achieved partial response within 3 months and clinical complete response of pulmonary masses within 12 months. As of now, the patient maintains a good quality of life, and the progression-free survival has been more than 17 months. In conclusion, the combination of fruquintinib and PD-1 inhibitors can improve the prognosis of metastatic colorectal cancer.

Prognostic value of preoperative combined with postoperative systemic immune-inflammation index for disease-free survival after radical rectal cancer surgery: a retrospective cohort study

Background

Colorectal cancer (CRC) ranks highly in malignant tumor incidence and mortality rates, severely affecting human health. The predictive value of the systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) in CRC prognosis is gaining attention, but there is limited research on the combined preoperative and postoperative SII. This study aims to explore the prognostic value of combined SII on disease-free survival (DFS) in patients undergoing radical surgery for rectal cancer.

Methods

We enrolled 292 patients with rectal cancer who underwent radical resection at the Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University from May 2018 to September 2020, along with regular follow-ups to document the DFS. Patients' complete blood cell counts were assessed before surgery and between 21-56 days postoperatively. Calculating preoperative and postoperative SII, patients were categorized into four groups based on the optimal cutoff values: (I) low-low group (preoperative SII <449.325 and postoperative SII <568.13); (II) high-low group (preoperative SII ≥449.325 and postoperative SII <568.13); (III) low-high group (preoperative SII <449.325 and postoperative SII ≥568.13); and (IV) high-high group (preoperative SII ≥449.325 and postoperative SII ≥568.13). The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis evaluated the prediction efficacy of preoperative, postoperative, and combined SII. Kaplan-Meier analysis generated DFS curves, and Cox regression analysis determined prognostic factors.

Results

With a median follow-up of 41 months, 65.4% (191/292) patients reached DFS. The clinical pathological features between the four groups are balanced and comparable (P>0.05). The area under the ROC curve for preoperative, postoperative, and combined SII was 0.668 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.6-0.737], 0.696 (95%CI: 0.63-0.763), and 0.741 (95% CI: 0.681-0.802), respectively. After adjusting for confounding factors such as adjuvant therapy, differentiation, vascular invasion, neural invasion, tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage, carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9), significant differences were observed between the high-low group [hazard ratio (HR) =2.403; 95% CI: 1.255-4.602; P=0.008], low-high group (HR =5.058; 95% CI: 2.389-10.71; P<0.001), and high-high group (HR =6.214; 95% CI: 3.474-11.115; P<0.001) compared to the low-low group, with higher risks of adverse outcomes.

Conclusions

Combined SII has better predictive efficacy than monitoring preoperative or postoperative SII alone in rectal cancer patients undergoing radical surgery.

Combining pathological risk factors and T, N staging to optimize the assessment for risk stratification and prognostication in low-risk stage III colon cancer

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to investigate the combined pathological risk factors (PRFs) to stratify low-risk (pT1-3N1) stage III colon cancer (CC), providing a basis for individualized treatment in the future.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

PRFs for low-risk stage III CC were identified using COX model. Low-risk stage III CC was risk-grouped combining with PRFs, and survival analysis were performed using Kaplan-Meier. The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) databases was used for external validation.

RESULTS

Nine hundred sixty-two stage III CC patients were included with 634 (65.9%) as low risk and 328 (34.1%) as high risk. Poor differentiation (OS: P = 0.048; DFS: P = 0.011), perineural invasion (OS: P = 0.003; DFS: P < 0.001) and tumor deposits (OS: P = 0.012; DFS: P = 0.003) were identified as PRFs. The prognosis of low-risk CC combined with 2 PRFs (OS: HR = 3.871, 95%CI, 2.004-7.479, P < 0.001; DFS: HR = 3.479, 95%CI, 2.158-5.610, P < 0.001) or 3 PRFs (OS: HR = 5.915, 95%CI, 1.953-17.420, P = 0.002; DFS: HR = 5.915, 95%CI, 2.623-13.335, P < 0.001) was similar to that of high-risk CC (OS: HR = 3.927, 95%CI, 2.317-6.656, P < 0.001; DFS: HR = 4.132, 95%CI, 2.858-5.974, P < 0.001). In the SEER database, 18,547 CC patients were enrolled with 10,023 (54.0%) as low risk and 8524 (46.0%) as high risk. Low-risk CC combined with 2 PRFs (OS: HR = 1.857, 95%CI, 1.613-2.139, P < 0.001) was similar to that of high-risk CC without PRFs (HR = 1.876, 95%CI, 1.731-2.033, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Combined PRFs improved the risk stratification of low-risk stage III CC, which could reduce the incidence of undertreatment and guide adjuvant chemotherapy.

Presence of tumor deposits is a strong indicator of poor outcome in patients with stage III colorectal cancers undergoing radical surgery

BACKGROUND

Tumor deposits (TDs) are emerging as an adverse prognostic factor in colorectal cancers (CRCs). However, TDs are somewhat neglected in the current staging system. It has been proposed either to add the TD count to the number of metastatic lymph nodes or to consider TDs as distant metastases; however, the scientific basis for these proposals seems questionable. This study aimed to investigate a new staging system.

METHODS

A total of 243 consecutive patients with stage III CRC who were undergoing curative resection and adjuvant chemotherapy were included. Each substage of stage III TNM was split according to the absence or presence of TDs. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and bootstrap methods were used to compare the current vs the new competing staging system in terms of oncologic outcome prediction.

RESULTS

A high rate of TDs was recorded (124 cases [51%]). TDs were correlated with other adverse prognostic indicators, particularly vascular and perineural invasions, and showed a negative correlation with the number of removed lymph nodes, suggesting a possible multimodal origin. In addition, TDs were confirmed to have a negative impact on oncologic outcome, regardless of their counts. Compared with the current staging system, the new classification displayed higher values at survival ROC analysis, a significantly better stratification of patients, and effective identification of patients at high risk of recurrence.

CONCLUSIONS

TDs negatively affect the prognosis in CRCs. A revision of the staging system could be useful to optimize treatments. The proposed new classification is easy to implement and more accurate than the current one. This study was registered online on the ClinicalTrials.gov website under the following identifier: NCT05923450.

Transcriptomics and proteomics reveal distinct biology for lymph node metastases and tumour deposits in colorectal cancer

Both lymph node metastases (LNMs) and tumour deposits (TDs) are included in colorectal cancer (CRC) staging, although knowledge regarding their biological background is lacking. This study aimed to compare the biology of these prognostic features, which is essential for a better understanding of their role in CRC spread. Spatially resolved transcriptomic analysis using digital spatial profiling was performed on TDs and LNMs from 10 CRC patients using 1,388 RNA targets, for the tumour cells and tumour microenvironment. Shotgun proteomics identified 5,578 proteins in 12 different patients. Differences in RNA and protein expression were analysed, and spatial deconvolution was performed. Image-based consensus molecular subtype (imCMS) analysis was performed on all TDs and LNMs included in the study. Transcriptome and proteome profiles identified distinct clusters for TDs and LNMs in both the tumour and tumour microenvironment segment, with upregulation of matrix remodelling, cell adhesion/motility, and epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) in TDs (all p < 0.05). Spatial deconvolution showed a significantly increased abundance of fibroblasts, macrophages, and regulatory T-cells (p < 0.05) in TDs. Consistent with a higher fibroblast and EMT component, imCMS classified 62% of TDs as poor prognosis subtype CMS4 compared to 36% of LNMs (p < 0.05). Compared to LNMs, TDs have a more invasive state involving a distinct tumour microenvironment and upregulation of EMT, which are reflected in a more frequent histological classification of TDs as CMS4. These results emphasise the heterogeneity of locoregional spread and the fact that TDs should merit more attention both in future research and during staging. © 2023 The Authors. The Journal of Pathology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of The Pathological Society of Great Britain and Ireland.

Prognostic Value of Tumor Deposits in Stage III Colorectal Cancer Patients with Different N Stages: A Population-Based, Retrospective, Cohort Study

PURPOSE

Tumor deposits (TDs) seem to be associated with the prognosis of patients with colorectal cancer (CRC). The goal of this study was to investigate the prognostic value of TDs among patients with stage III CRC at different N stages.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis was performed on two independent cohorts of stage III CRC patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database (n = 8232) and the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University (n = 423). Primary outcomes were overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS).

RESULTS

Of 8232 patients in the SEER cohort, the presence of TDs revealed poorer 5-year OS rates and 5-year CSS rates in all N-stage subgroups. X-tile software identified 5 (5-year OS: P = 0.004; 5-year CSS: P < 0.001) as the optimal cutoff value for TD count in the TD-positive subgroup at the N2 stage. The OS (5-year OS: 62.0% vs. 42.0%, P < 0.001) and CSS (5-year CSS: 66.0% vs. 43.8%, P < 0.001) of patients with five or more TDs were significantly worse than those with one to four TDs in the N2 stage subgroups. Of 423 patients in the Wenzhou cohort, the 3-year OS rate for patients in the positive group was worse than that for patients in the negative group (88.7% vs. 94.3%, P = 0.015).

CONCLUSIONS

TD count should be considered when evaluating the prognosis of patients with the N2 stage. Those with higher TD counts (≥ 5) might have a worse prognosis.

Tumour deposits in colon cancer predict recurrence and reduced survival in a nationwide population-based study

BACKGROUND

Tumour deposits are suggested to impact prognosis in colon cancer negatively. This study assessed the impact of tumour deposits on oncological outcomes.

METHODS

Data from the Swedish Colorectal Cancer Registry for patients who underwent R0 abdominal surgery for TNM stage I-III colon cancer between 2011 and 2014 with 5-year follow-up were analysed with multivariable analysis. Patients were categorized for their tumour deposit status and compared for the local recurrence and distant metastasis rates and 5-year survivals (overall and relative). Subgroup analyses were performed according to the nodal disease status.

RESULTS

Of 8146 stage I-III colon cancer patients who underwent R0 resection, 8014 patients were analysed (808 tumour deposits positive, 7206 tumour deposits negative). Patients with tumour deposits positive tumours had increased local recurrence and distant metastasis rates (7.2 versus 3.0 per cent; P < 0.001 and 33.9 versus 12.0 per cent; P < 0.001 respectively) and reduced 5-year overall and relative survival (56.8 per cent versus 74.9 per cent; P < 0.001 and 68.5 versus 92.6 per cent; P < 0.001 respectively). In multivariable analysis, tumour deposits moderately increased the risks of local recurrence and distant metastasis (hazard ratio 1.50, 95 per cent c.i. 1.09 to 2.07; P = 0.013 and HR 1.91, 95 per cent c.i. 1.64 to 2.23; P < 0.001 respectively) and worse 5-year overall and relative survival (hazard ratio 1.60, 95 per cent c.i. 1.40 to 1.82; P < 0.001 and excess hazard ratio 2.24, 95 per cent c.i. 1.81 to 2.78; P < 0.001 respectively). Subgroup analysis of N stages found that N1c patients had worse outcomes than N0 for distant metastasis and relative survival. For patients with lymph node metastases tumour deposits increased the risks of distant metastasis and worse overall and relative survival, except for N2b patients.

CONCLUSION

Tumour deposits negatively impact the prognosis in colon cancer and must be considered when discussing adjuvant chemotherapy.

Development and validation of a nomogram for preoperative prediction of tumor deposits in colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

Based on the clinical data of colorectal cancer (CRC) patients who underwent surgery at our institution, a model for predicting the formation of tumor deposits (TDs) in this patient population was established.

AIM

To establish an effective model for predicting TD formation, thus enabling clinicians to identify CRC patients at high risk for TDs and implement personalized treatment strategies.

METHODS

CRC patients (n = 645) who met the inclusion criteria were randomly divided into training (n = 452) and validation (n = 193) cohorts using a 7:3 ratio in this retrospective analysis. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression was employed to screen potential risk factors, and multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent risk factors. Subsequently, a predictive model for TD formation in CRC patients was constructed based on the independent risk factors. The discrimination ability of the model, its consistency with actual results, and its clinical applicability were evaluated using receiver-operating characteristic curves, area under the curve (AUC), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

Thirty-four (7.5%) patients with TDs were identified in the training cohort based on postoperative pathological specimens. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified female sex, preoperative intestinal obstruction, left-sided CRC, and lymph node metastasis as independent risk factors for TD formation. The AUCs of the nomogram models constructed using these variables were 0.839 and 0.853 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The calibration curve demonstrated good consistency, and the training cohort DCA yielded a threshold probability of 7%-78%.

CONCLUSION

This study developed and validated a nomogram with good predictive performance for identifying TDs in CRC patients. Our predictive model can assist surgeons in making optimal treatment decisions.

Readjustment of nodal staging by integrating tumor deposits and positive lymph nodes in patients with stage III colon cancer: a population-based analysis

Whether tumor deposits (TDs) should be classified as lymph node metastasis or distant metastasis remains controversial. To address this predicament, we conducted this study to identify the predictive value of TDs on the survival of patients diagnosed with stage III colon cancer (CC). 12,904 eligible patients diagnosed with stage III CC between 2010 and 2015 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The best cutoff point of TD quantity was determined based on the difference in survival. Cox proportional hazards model was employed to perform univariate and multivariate analyses. The Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test were performed to calculate the differences between overall survival (OS). Our results showed that the number of TDs was a significant prognostic factor in patients with stage III CC (P < 0.0001). We added the number of TDs to the pN stage and devised a new pN stage, there were no significant differences in the survival of npN, except npN2a (P > 0.05). Upon re-staging to the same npN stage, the difference in survival between TDs+ and TDs- disappeared (P > 0.05). The median survival times for N2aTDs > 4 and N2bTDs > 4 were 33 and 37 months, respectively, which were significantly shorter than that of N2TDs- (65 months) and represented the worst survival rates among all groups. In conclusion, the number of TDs indicated a poor prognosis for patients with stage III CC. Incorporating TDs into the pN is feasible to predict prognosis.

Clinical significance of metastatic tumor deposit foci in rectal cancer in the lateral pelvic lymph node area

BACKGROUND

Although previous studies have demonstrated that tumor deposits (TDs) are associated with worse prognosis in colon cancer, their clinical significance in rectal cancer has not been fully elucidated, especially in the lateral pelvic lymph node (LPLN) area. This study aimed to clarify the clinical significance of TDs, focusing on the number of metastatic foci, including lymph node metastases (LNMs) and TDs, in the LPLN area.

METHODS

This retrospective study involved 226 consecutive patients with cStage II/III low rectal cancer who underwent LPLN dissection. Metastatic foci, including LNM and TD, in the LPLN area were defined as lateral pelvic metastases (LP-M) and were evaluated according to LP-M status: presence (absence vs. presence), histopathological classification (LNM vs. TD), and number (one to three vs. four or more). We evaluated the relapse-free survival of each model and compared them using the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Harrell's concordance index (c-index).

RESULTS

Forty-nine of 226 patients (22%) had LP-M, and 15 patients (7%) had TDs. The median number of LP-M per patient was one (range, 1-9). The best risk stratification power was observed for number (AIC, 758; c-index, 0.668) compared with presence (AIC, 759; c-index, 0.665) and histopathological classification (AIC, 761; c-index, 0.664). The number of LP-M was an independent prognostic factor for both relapse-free and overall survival, and was significantly associated with cumulative local recurrence.

CONCLUSION

The number of metastatic foci, including LNMs and TDs, in the LPLN area is useful for risk stratification of patients with low rectal cancer.

Disulfidptosis-associated long non-coding RNA signature predicts the prognosis, tumor microenvironment, and immunotherapy and chemotherapy options in colon adenocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

Disulfidptosis is independent of apoptosis, ferroptosis, and cuproptosis and is associated with cancer progression, treatment response, and prognosis. However, the predictive potential of disulfidptosis-associated lncRNAs in colon adenocarcinoma (COAD) and their features in the tumor immune microenvironment (TIME) require further elucidation.

METHODS

RNA transcriptome, clinical information, and mutation data of COAD samples were obtained from the TCGA database. The risk model was first constructed by co-expression analysis of disulfidptosis genes and lncRNAs, and prognostic lncRNAs were screened using Cox regression, followed by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator analysis. Enrichment analyses were performed to explore the underlying biological functions and signaling of model-associated differentially expressed genes (MADEGs). Moreover, TIME of MADEGs was analyzed to assess the immunotherapy. Finally, the expression levels of the lncRNAs were verified by taking specimens of patients with COAD from the Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University.

RESULTS

We constructed a prognosis-related risk model based on four disulfidptosis-associated lncRNAs (ZEB1-AS1, SNHG16, SATB2-AS1, and ALMS1-IT1). By analyzing the survival of patients in the whole, training, and test groups, we found that patients with COAD in the low-risk group had better overall survival than those in the high-risk group. Validation of the model via Cox analysis and clinical indicators demonstrated that the model had a decent potential for predicting the prognosis of patients with COAD. Enrichment analyses revealed that the MADEGs were related to disulfidptosis-associated biological functions and cancer pathways. Furthermore, patients with COAD in the high-risk group had more positive responses to immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) than those in the low-risk group, as confirmed by TIME analysis. ZEB1-AS1, SNHG16, and ALMS1-IT1 were expressed at higher levels in tumor samples than those in the corresponding paracancerous samples (p < 0.05), whereas SATB2-AS1 was upregulated in the paracancerous samples (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

This signature may guide prognosis, molecular mechanisms, and treatment strategies, including ICIs and chemotherapy, in patients with COAD.

Development and validation of a competitive risk model in patients with rectal cancer: based on SEER database

BACKGROUND

Rectal cancer is one of the most common malignancies. To predict the specific mortality risk of rectal cancer patients, we constructed a predictive nomogram based on a competing risk model.

METHODS

The information on rectal cancer patients was extracted from the SEER database. Traditional survival analysis and specific death analysis were performed separately on the data.

RESULTS

The present study included 23,680 patients, with 16,580 in the training set and 7100 in the validation set. The specific mortality rate calculated by the competing risk model was lower than that of the traditional survival analysis. Age, Marriage, Race, Sex, ICD-O-3Hist/Behav, Grade, AJCC stage, T stage, N stage, Surgery, Examined LN, RX SUMM-SURG OTH, Chemotherapy, CEA, Deposits, Regional nodes positive, Brain, Bone, Liver, Lung, Tumor size, and Malignant were independent influencing factors of specific death. The overall C statistic of the model in the training set was 0.821 (Se = 0.001), and the areas under the ROC curve for cancer-specific survival (CSS) at 1, 3, and 5 years were 0.842, 0.830, and 0.812, respectively. The overall C statistic of the model in the validation set was 0.829 (Se = 0.002), and the areas under the ROC curve for CSS at 1, 3, and 5 years were 0.851, 0.836, and 0.813, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The predictive nomogram based on a competing risk model for time-specific mortality in patients with rectal cancer has very desirable accuracy. Thus, the application of the predictive nomogram in clinical practice can help physicians make clinical decisions and follow-up strategies.

Predictive value of MRI-detected tumor deposits in locally advanced rectal cancer

Background

Although tumor deposits (TDs) are not the same as lymph nodes, the prognosis of patients with TDs is similar or worse than that of patients with metastatic lymph nodes. TDs are mostly assessed by the histology of samples after surgery, thus, not helpful for preoperative treatment strategies. The primary objective of this study was to detect TDs by MRI and evaluate its predictive value.

Materials and methods

A total of 114 patients with rectal cancer were retrospectively analyzed. Clinicopathological and MRI data mainly including MRI- detected TDs (mTDs), tumor border configuration (TBC) on MRI, MRI-detected extramural vascular invasion (mEMVI), MRI-detected lymph node metastasis (mLN), MRI T stage, MRI N stage, the range of rectal wall involved by the tumor, peritoneal reflection invasion, tumor length, tumor location, cord sign at the tumor edge, nodular protrusion at the tumor edge, maximal extramural depth and pathology-proven lymph node involvement (pLN) were evaluated. The correlation of MRI factors with postoperative distant metastasis (PDM) and pLN were analyzed by univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis, and nomograms were established based on the latter. The diagnostic efficiency was evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) and area under the curve (AUC).

Results

A total of 38 cases of pLN, 13 of PDM and 17 of pathology-proven TDs (pTDs) were found. Ten cases of PDM and 22 cases of pLN in 30 mTDs cases were also found. Chi-square test showed that mTDs, mLN, TBC, mEMVI, MRI T stage, nodular protrusion, cord sign, maximal extramural depth and peritoneal reflection invasion were correlated with PDM and pLN (P<0.05). mTDs and peritoneal reflection invasion were independent risk factors for PDM (odds ratio: 10.15 and 8.77, P<0.05), mTDs and mLN were independent risk factors for pLN (odds ratio: 5.50 and 5.91, P<0.05), and Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed that the results of two models were not statistically significant, suggesting that the fit was good. On this basis, two nomograms for predicting PDM and pLN were confirmed by Bootstrap self-sampling, and the C-indices of the two nomograms were 0.837 and 0.817, respectively. The calibration curves and ROC curves of the two nomograms showed that the correlation between the predicted and the actual incidence of PDM and pLN was good. The DeLong test showed that the predictive efficiency of the nomogram in predicting pLN was better than that of mLN (P=0.0129).

Conclusion

mTDs are a risk factor for PDM and lymph node metastasis. The two nomograms based on mTDs showed a good performance in predicting PDM and lymph node metastasis, possessing a certain clinical value.

Combining perineural invasion with staging improve the prognostic accuracy in colorectal cancer: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Current guidelines only propose the importance of perineural invasion(PNI) on prognosis in stage II colon cancer. However, the prognostic value of PNI in other stages of colorectal cancer (CRC) is ambiguous.

METHODS

This single-center retrospective cohort study included 3485 CRC patients who underwent primary colorectal resection between January 2013 and December 2016 at the Sixth Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University. Associations of PNI with overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were evaluated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models. In addition, interaction analyses were performed to explore the prognostic effects of PNI in different clinical subgroups.

RESULTS

After median follow-up of 61.9 months, we found PNI was associated with poorer OS (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.290; 95% CI, 1.087-1.531) and DFS (aHR, 1.397; 95% CI, 1.207-1.617), irrespective of tumor stage. Interestingly, the weight of PNI was found second only to incomplete resection in the nomogram for risk factors of OS and DFS in stage II CRC patients. Moreover, OS and DFS were insignificantly different between stage II patients with PNI and stage III patients (both P > 0.05). PNI was found to be an independent prognostic factor of DFS in stage III CRC (aHR: 1.514; 95% CI, 1.211-1.892) as well. Finally, the adverse effect of PNI on OS was more significant in female, early-onset, and diabetes-negative patients than in their counterparts (interaction P = 0.0213, 0.0280, and 0.0186, respectively).

CONCLUSION

PNI was an important prognostic factor in CRC, more than in stage II. The survival of patients with stage II combined with perineural invasion is similar with those with stage III. PNI in stage III CRC also suggests a worse survival.

Applying machine learning techniques to predict the risk of lung metastases from rectal cancer: a real-world retrospective study

Background

Metastasis in the lungs is common in patients with rectal cancer, and it can have severe consequences on their survival and quality of life. Therefore, it is essential to identify patients who may be at risk of developing lung metastasis from rectal cancer.

Methods

In this study, we utilized eight machine-learning methods to create a model for predicting the risk of lung metastasis in patients with rectal cancer. Our cohort consisted of 27,180 rectal cancer patients selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database between 2010 and 2017 for model development. Additionally, we validated our models using 1118 rectal cancer patients from a Chinese hospital to evaluate model performance and generalizability. We assessed our models' performance using various metrics, including the area under the curve (AUC), the area under the precision-recall curve (AUPR), the Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC), decision curve analysis (DCA), and calibration curves. Finally, we applied the best model to develop a web-based calculator for predicting the risk of lung metastasis in patients with rectal cancer.

Result

Our study employed tenfold cross-validation to assess the performance of eight machine-learning models for predicting the risk of lung metastasis in patients with rectal cancer. The AUC values ranged from 0.73 to 0.96 in the training set, with the extreme gradient boosting (XGB) model achieving the highest AUC value of 0.96. Moreover, the XGB model obtained the best AUPR and MCC in the training set, reaching 0.98 and 0.88, respectively. We found that the XGB model demonstrated the best predictive power, achieving an AUC of 0.87, an AUPR of 0.60, an accuracy of 0.92, and a sensitivity of 0.93 in the internal test set. Furthermore, the XGB model was evaluated in the external test set and achieved an AUC of 0.91, an AUPR of 0.63, an accuracy of 0.93, a sensitivity of 0.92, and a specificity of 0.93. The XGB model obtained the highest MCC in the internal test set and external validation set, with 0.61 and 0.68, respectively. Based on the DCA and calibration curve analysis, the XGB model had better clinical decision-making ability and predictive power than the other seven models. Lastly, we developed an online web calculator using the XGB model to assist doctors in making informed decisions and to facilitate the model's wider adoption (https://share.streamlit.io/woshiwz/rectal_cancer/main/lung.py).

Conclusion

In this study, we developed an XGB model based on clinicopathological information to predict the risk of lung metastasis in patients with rectal cancer, which may help physicians make clinical decisions.

Tumor deposits in colorectal cancer: Refining their definition in the TNM system

Tumor deposits (TDs) are discontinuous tumor spread in the mesocolon/mesorectum which is found in approximately 20% of colorectal cancer (CRC) and negatively affects survival. We have a history of repeated revisions on TD definition and categorization in the tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) system leading to stage migration. Since 1997, TDs have been categorized as T or N factors depending on their size (TNM5) or contour (TNM6). In 2009, TNM7 provided the category of N1c for TDs in a case without positive lymph nodes (LNs), which is also used in TNM8. However, increasing evidence suggests that these revisions are suboptimal and only "partially" successful. Specifically, the N1c rule is certainly useful for oncologists who are having difficulty with TDs in a case with no positive LNs. However, it has failed to maximize the value of the TNM system because of the underused prognostic information of individual TDs. Recently, the potential value of an alternative staging method has been highlighted in several studies using the "counting method." For this method, all nodular type TDs are individually counted together with positive LNs to derive the final pN, yielding a prognostic and diagnostic value that is superior to existing TNM systems. The TNM system has long stuck to the origin of TDs in providing its categorization, but it is time to make way for alternative options and initiate an international discussion on optimal treatment of TDs in tumor staging; otherwise, a proportion of patients end up missing an opportunity to receive the optimal adjuvant treatment.

Reappraisal of Tumor Deposit as a Prognostic Factor in Pancreatic Cancer

PURPOSE

Tumor deposits (TDs) are discrete tumor nodules within the lymphatic drainage area of the primary tumor without histological evidence of lymph node tissue or identifiable vascular or neural structure. This study aims to analyze the prognostic impact of TDs in patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) and explore their potential role in staging system.

METHODS

The prospectively maintained database from the Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center was queried for patients undergoing resection for PDAC. Patients with TDs were matched by propensity score with those without TDs. The cumulative prevalence of recurrence was estimated using the cumulative incidence function. Overall survival was estimated using Kaplan-Meier curves.

RESULTS

A total of 123 patients (9.7%) had TDs, of whom 108 were matched at a 1:3 ratio with 324 patients without TDs. The cumulative incidence of recurrence was significantly higher for TD-positive patients than TD-negative patients (P = 0.04). The median overall survival was significantly shorter for patients with TDs than for those without TDs (15.9 versus 21.8 months, P < 0.001). The presence of TDs attenuated the effect of lymph node metastasis on survival, with no significance between node-negative and node-positive subpopulations (P = 0.165). Patients with TDs had comparable survival to N2 patients without TDs (15.9 versus 17.1 months, P = 0.383).

CONCLUSIONS

TD is an important prognostic factor for recurrence and survival in patients undergoing resection for PDAC. We suggest that patients presenting TDs be classified into the stage III category in the next edition of the staging system.

Preoperative prediction of tumor deposits in rectal cancer with clinical-magnetic resonance deep learning-based radiomic models

Background

This study aimed to establish an effective model for preoperative prediction of tumor deposits (TDs) in patients with rectal cancer (RC).

Methods

In 500 patients, radiomic features were extracted from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) using modalities such as high-resolution T2-weighted (HRT2) imaging and diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI). Machine learning (ML)-based and deep learning (DL)-based radiomic models were developed and integrated with clinical characteristics for TD prediction. The performance of the models was assessed using the area under the curve (AUC) over five-fold cross-validation.

Results

A total of 564 radiomic features that quantified the intensity, shape, orientation, and texture of the tumor were extracted for each patient. The HRT2-ML, DWI-ML, Merged-ML, HRT2-DL, DWI-DL, and Merged-DL models demonstrated AUCs of 0.62 ± 0.02, 0.64 ± 0.08, 0.69 ± 0.04, 0.57 ± 0.06, 0.68 ± 0.03, and 0.59 ± 0.04, respectively. The clinical-ML, clinical-HRT2-ML, clinical-DWI-ML, clinical-Merged-ML, clinical-DL, clinical-HRT2-DL, clinical-DWI-DL, and clinical-Merged-DL models demonstrated AUCs of 0.81 ± 0.06, 0.79 ± 0.02, 0.81 ± 0.02, 0.83 ± 0.01, 0.81 ± 0.04, 0.83 ± 0.04, 0.90 ± 0.04, and 0.83 ± 0.05, respectively. The clinical-DWI-DL model achieved the best predictive performance (accuracy 0.84 ± 0.05, sensitivity 0.94 ± 0. 13, specificity 0.79 ± 0.04).

Conclusions

A comprehensive model combining MRI radiomic features and clinical characteristics achieved promising performance in TD prediction for RC patients. This approach has the potential to assist clinicians in preoperative stage evaluation and personalized treatment of RC patients.

Establishment and validation of a postoperative predictive model for patients with colorectal mucinous adenocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to develop comprehensive and effective nomograms for predicting overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) rates in patients with colorectal mucinous adenocarcinoma (CRMA).

METHODS

A total of 4711 CRMA patients who underwent radical surgery between 2010 and 2018 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were collected and randomized into development (n=3299) and validation (n=1412) cohorts at a ratio of 7:3 for model development and validation. OS and CSS nomograms were developed using the prognostic factors from the development cohort after multivariable Cox regression analysis. The performance of the nomograms was evaluated using Harrell's concordance index (C-index), calibration diagrams, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

The study included 4711 patients. Multivariate Cox regression analysis demonstrated that age, tumor size, grade, pT stage, pN stage, M stage, carcinoembryonic antigen, perineural invasion, tumor deposits, regional nodes examined, and chemotherapy were correlated with OS and CSS. Marital status was independently related to OS. In the development and validation cohorts, the C-index of OS was 0.766 and 0.744, respectively, and the C-index of CSS was 0.826 and 0.809, respectively. Calibration curves and ROC curves showed predictive accuracy. DCA showed that the nomograms had excellent potency over the 8th edition of the TNM staging system with higher clinical net benefits. Significant differences in OS and CSS were observed among low-, medium-, and high-risk groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Nomograms were developed for the first time to predict personalized 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS and CSS in CRMA postoperative patients. External and internal validation confirmed the excellent discrimination and calibration ability of the nomograms. The nomograms can help clinicians design personalized treatment strategies and assist with clinical decisions.

Prognostic impact of tumor deposits on overall survival in colorectal cancer: Based on Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database

BACKGROUND

In colorectal cancer, tumor deposits (TDs) are considered to be a prognostic factor in the current staging system, and are only considered in the absence of lymph node metastases (LNMs). However, this definition and the subsequent prognostic value based on it is controversial, with various hypotheses. TDs may play an independent role when it comes to survival and addition of TDs to LNM count may predict the prognosis of patients more accurately.

AIM

To assess the prognostic impact of TDs and evaluate the effect of their addition to the LNM count.

METHODS

The patients are derived from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. A prognostic analysis regarding impact of TDs on overall survival (OS) was performed using Cox regression model, and other covariates associating with OS were adjusted. The effect of addition of TDs to LNM count on N restaging was also evaluated. The subgroup analysis was performed to explore the different profile of risk factors between patients with and without TDs.

RESULTS

Overall, 103755 patients were enrolled with 14131 (13.6%) TD-positive and 89624 (86.4%) TD-negative tumors. TD-positive patients had worse prognosis compared with TD-negative patients, with 3-year OS rates of 47.3% (95%CI, 46.5%-48.1%) and 77.5% (95%CI, 77.2%-77.8%, P < 0.0001), respectively. On multivariable analysis, TDs were associated poorer OS (hazard ratio, 1.35; 95%CI, 1.31-1.38; P < 0.0001). Among TD-positive patients, the number of TDs had a linear negative effect on disease-free survival and OS. After reclassifying patients by adding TDs to the LNM count, 885 of 19 965 (4.4%) N1 patients were restaged as pN2, with worse outcomes than patients restaged as pN1 (3-year OS rate: 78.5%, 95%CI, 77.9%-79.1% vs 63.2%, 95%CI, 60.1%-66.5%, respectively; P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

TDs are an independent prognostic factor for OS in colorectal cancer. The addition of TDs to LNM count improved the prognostic accuracy of tumor, node and metastasis staging.

The new 'coN' staging system combining lymph node metastasis and tumour deposit provides a more accurate prognosis for TNM stage III colon cancer

OBJECTIVE

Despite controversy over its origin and definition, the significance of tumour deposit (TD) has been underestimated in the tumour node metastasis (TNM) staging system for colon cancer, especially in stage III patients. We aimed to further confirm the prognostic value of TD in stage III colon cancer and to establish a more accurate 'coN' staging system combining TD and lymph node metastasis (LNM).

METHODS

Information on stage III colon cancer patients with a definite TD status was retrospectively collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database between 2010 and 2017. The effect of TD on prognosis was estimated using Cox regression analysis. Maximally selected rank statistics were used to select the optimal cut-off value of TD counts. The predictive power of conventional N staging and the new coN staging was evaluated and compared by Akaike's information criterion (AIC), Harrell's concordance index (C-index) and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Clinicopathological data of stage III colon cancer patients in the Xiangya database from 2014 to 2018 were collected to validate the coN staging system.

RESULTS

A total of 39,185 patients with stage III colon cancer were included in our study: 38,446 in the SEER cohort and 739 in the Xiangya cohort. The incidence of TD in stage III colon cancer was approximately 30% (26% in SEER and 30% in the Xiangya database). TD was significantly associated with poorer overall survival (OS) (HR = 1.37, 95% CI 1.31-1.44, p < 0.001 in SEER). The optimal cut-off value of TD counts was 4, and the patients were classified into the TD0 (count = 0), TD1 (count = 1-3) and TD2 (count ≥ 4) groups accordingly. The estimated 5-year OS was significantly different among the three groups (69.4%, 95% CI 68.8%-70.0% in TD0; 60.5%, 95% CI 58.9%-62.2% in TD1 and 42.6%, 95% CI 39.2%-46.4% in TD2, respectively, p < 0.001). The coN system integrating LNM and TD was established, and patients with stage III colon cancer were reclassified into five subgroups (coN1a, coN1b, coN2a, coN2b and coN2c). Compared with conventional N staging, the coN staging Cox model had a smaller AIC (197097.581 vs. 197358.006) and a larger C-index (0.611 vs. 0.601). The AUCs of coN staging at 3, 5 and 7 years were also greater than those of conventional N staging (0.6305, 0.6326, 0.6314 vs. 0.6186, 0.6197, 0.6160). Concomitant with the SEER cohort results, the coN staging Cox model of the Xiangya cohort also had a smaller AIC (2883.856 vs. 2906.741) and a larger C-index (0.669 vs. 0.633). Greater AUCs at 3, 5 and 7 years for coN staging were also observed in the Xiangya cohort (0.6983, 0.6774, 0.6502 vs. 0.6512, 0.6368, 0.6199).

CONCLUSIONS

Not only the presence but also the number of TDs is associated with poor prognosis in stage III colon cancer. A combined N staging system integrating LNM and TD provides more accurate prognostic prediction than the latest AJCC N staging in stage III colon cancer.

Beyond N staging in colorectal cancer: Current approaches and future perspectives

Traditionally, lymph node metastases (LNM) evaluation is essential to the staging of colon cancer patients according to the TNM (tumor-node-metastasis) system. However, in recent years evidence has accumulated regarding the role of emerging pathological features, which could significantly impact the prognosis of colorectal cancer patients. Lymph Node Ratio (LNR) and Log Odds of Positive Lymph Nodes (LODDS) have been shown to predict patients' prognosis more accurately than traditional nodal staging and it has been suggested that their implementation in existing classification could help stratify further patients with overlapping TNM stage. Tumor deposits (TD) are currently factored within the N1c category of the TNM classification in the absence of lymph node metastases. However, studies have shown that presence of TDs can affect patients' survival regardless of LNM. Moreover, evidence suggest that presence of TDs should not be evaluated as dichotomic but rather as a quantitative variable. Extranodal extension (ENE) has been shown to correlate with presence of other adverse prognostic features and to impact survival of colorectal cancer patients. In this review we will describe current staging systems and prognostic/predictive factors in colorectal cancer and elaborate on available evidence supporting the implementation of LNR/LODDS, TDs and ENE evaluation in existing classification to improve prognosis estimation and patient selection for adjuvant treatment.

Significance of tumor deposits combined with lymph node metastasis in stage III colorectal cancer patients: a retrospective multi-center cohort study from China

PURPOSE

The study aimed to explore the value of tumor deposits in stage III colorectal cancer (CRC) and verify whether patients with more tumor deposit numbers have higher risk of recurrence.

METHODS

The retrospective cohort analysis was performed at two cancer centers of China. Stage III CRC patients who underwent radical resection at the center between April 2008 and February 2019 were identified. The Univariate/Multivariate Cox regression, Kaplan-Meier analysis, and PSM were recurrence-free survival (RFS) used.

RESULTS

Total 1080 stage III CRC patients (634 [58.7%] men; median [IQR] age, 60 [50-68] years) who underwent radical surgical resection were identified for inclusion in this study. Patients with tumor deposits had a 12.8% lower 3-year RFS (n = 236 [69.9%]) than the patients without tumor deposits (n = 844 [82.7%]) (P ≤ 0.0001). The 3-year RFS of patients with stage N2 (n = 335 [61.2%]) was 18.6% lower (P ≤ 0.0001) than the original cohort of patients with stage N1 (n = 745 [79.8%]), but it was similar to the RFS of patients with 4 or more tumor deposits plus lymph node metastases (n = 58 [61.4%]) (P = 0.91). The RFS for patients with 4 or more tumor deposits plus number of lymph node metastases (n = 58 [61.4%]) was 15.8% lower than the cohort of patients with 1-3 tumor deposits + number of lymph node metastases (n = 687 [77.2%]) (P = 0.001). Multivariate analysis confirmed that patients with 4 or more tumor deposits + the number of lymph node metastases (hazard ratio [HR], 1.88; 95% CI, 1.24-2.87) were independently associated with a shorter RFS.

CONCLUSION

The number of tumor deposits is an indicator of poor postoperative prognosis. It is necessary to incorporate the number of tumor deposits combined with the number of lymph node metastases to stratify postoperative stratification of stage III CRC, which may provide a new theoretical basis for adjuvant therapy for patients with N1 stage CRC after surgery.

Prognostic Value of Tumor Deposit Counts in Patients with Stage III Colorectal Cancer: A Population-Based Study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the prognostic value of tumor deposits (TDs) counts in stage III colorectal cancer (CRC) patients and develop a prognostic nomogram.

METHODS

Data on stage III CRC patients from 2010 to 2015 were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to assess differences in survival outcomes among patients. The Cox regression analysis was performed to establish the independent prognostic factors for cancer-specific survival and to establish a nomogram. The nomograms' performance was evaluated by calibration plots and concordance index (C-index). Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to assess the clinical utility of the prediction model.

RESULTS

A total of 23,345 CRC patients were included in this study, and 3,578 (15.3%) had TDs. Cox multivariate regression analyses revealed that age, race, histological tumor grade, the administered chemotherapy, pathological type, T-stage, CEA, N-stage, peripheral nerve invasion, and TDs were independent prognostic factors. Patients with many TDs (=0/1-4, HR: 1.325,/≥5 HR: 2.223) had poorer cancer-specific survival. The prognostic value of the number of TDs was comparable to that of lymph node metastasis. The C-indices of the nomogram were superior to TNM staging in training (0.730 vs 0.646) and validation (0.714 vs 0.636) groups. DCA revealed that the nomogram had a higher clinical net benefit compared to TNM staging.

CONCLUSIONS

TDs count is an adverse prognostic factor for stage III CRC patients. Furthermore, the TDs-based nomogram can accurately predict the prognostic outcomes for stage III CRC.

Prognostic Nomogram for Rectal Cancer Patients With Tumor Deposits

Aim

Tumor deposits (TDs) are an aggressive hallmark of rectal cancer, but their prognostic value has not been addressed in current staging systems. This study aimed to construct and validate a prognostic nomogram for rectal cancer patients with TDs.

Methods

A total of 1,388 stage III–IV rectal cancer patients who underwent radical surgical resection from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were retrospectively analyzed to identify the clinical value of TDs. TD-positive rectal cancer patients in the SEER database were used as the training set to construct a prognostic model, which was validated by Fujian Cancer Hospital. Three models were constructed to predict the prognosis of rectal cancer patients with TDs, including the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression (LASSO, model 1), backward stepwise regression (BSR, model 2), and LASSO followed by BSR (model 3). A nomogram was established among the three models.

Results

In the entire cohort, TD was also identified as an independent risk factor for overall survival (OS), even after adjusting for baseline factors, stage, other risk factors, treatments, and all the included variables in this study (all P < 0.05). Among patients with TDs, model 3 exhibited a higher C-index and area under the curves (AUCs) at 3, 4, and 5 years compared with the American Joint Committee on Cancer staging system both in the training and validation sets (all P < 0.05). The nomogram obtained from model 3 showed good consistency based on the calibration curves and excellent clinical applicability by the decision curve analysis curves. In addition, patients were divided into two subgroups with apparently different OS according to the current nomogram (both P < 0.05), and only patients in the high-risk subgroup were found to benefit from postoperative radiotherapy (P < 0.05).

Conclusion

We identified a novel nomogram that could not only predict the prognosis of rectal cancer patients with TDs but also provide reliable evidence for clinical decision-making.

Preoperative Absolute Lymphocyte Count to Carcinoembryonic Antigen Ratio Is a Superior Predictor of Survival in Stage I to III Colorectal Cancer

Background:

Preoperative absolute lymphocyte count (ALC) and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) are useful prognostic indicators in colorectal cancer (CRC); however, the role of the ALC-to-CEA ratio (LCR) has been less addressed.

Methods:

A total of 189 stage I to III CRC patients who underwent radical resection were enrolled retrospectively. The significance of the LCR in predicting disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) was calculated and compared with other markers based on ALC. The DFS and OS differences among the low- and high-LCR subgroups and risk factors for the outcome were estimated by Kaplan–Meier analysis and the Cox proportional hazards model, respectively.

Results:

Taking 0.28 as the cutoff point, the LCR has a sensitivity and a specificity of 75.60% and 77.00%, respectively, in predicting OS. The prognostic efficacy of LCR was significantly superior to that of other markers based on ALC for predicting DFS and OS. A total of 34.92% (66/189) of patients displayed a low LCR (<0.28), and these patients were more likely to present poor cell differentiation (P = .03), tumor deposits (P < .01) and advanced T (P < .01) and liver metastasis (P = .02). Patients with a low LCR had significantly worse DFS (Log Rank = 34.98, P < .01) and OS (Log Rank = 43.17, P < .01) than those with a high LCR. The LCR was an independent prognostic factor for both DFS (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.35, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.20-0.62, P < .01) and OS (HR = 0.18, 95% CI: 0.08-0.37, P < .01).

Conclusions:

The LCR is a superior predictor of survival in stage I to III CRC, and patients with a low LCR have an inferior outcome; however, additional studies are required to validate its prognostic role.

The Impact of Metastatic Lymph Node Size on Long-term Outcomes for pStage III Colon Cancer

AIM

To clarify the impact of metastatic lymph node size on long-term outcomes in patients undergoing curative colectomy for pathological stage III colon cancer.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This study enrolled patients who underwent curative colectomy for pStage III colon cancer between January 2013 and December 2015. All patients were divided into four groups based on the short-axis diameter of the largest MLN: Group A, <5 mm; Group B, ≥5 mm and <10 mm; Group C, ≥10 mm and <15 mm; Group D, ≥15 mm.

RESULTS

A total of 209 patients were analyzed. The 5-year recurrence-free survival rates of Groups A, B, C, and D were 82.3%, 74.6%, 74.5% and 60.7%, respectively. In multivariate analysis, Group D (hazard ratio=3.95; 95% confidence interval, 1.34-11.65; p=0.01) was independently associated with worse RFS.

CONCLUSION

Bulky MLNs might be a poor prognostic factor in node-positive colon cancer.