Dengue models based on machine learning techniques: A systematic literature review

Application of multiple linear regression model and long short-term memory with compartmental model to forecast dengue cases in Selangor, Malaysia based on climate variables

Despite the implementation of various initiatives, dengue remains a significant public health concern in Malaysia. Given that dengue has no specific treatment, dengue prediction remains a useful early warning mechanism for timely and effective deployment of public health preventative measures. This study aims to develop a comprehensive approach for forecasting dengue cases in Selangor, Malaysia by incorporating climate variables. An ensemble of Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Susceptible-Infected mosquito vectors, Susceptible-Infected-Recovered human hosts (SI-SIR) model were used to establish a relation between climate variables (temperature, humidity, precipitation) and mosquito biting rate. Dengue incidence subject to climate variability can then be projected by SI-SIR model using the forecasted mosquito biting rate. The proposed approach outperformed three alternative approaches and expanded the temporal horizon of dengue prediction for Selangor with the ability to forecast approximately 60 weeks ahead with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 13.97 for the chosen prediction window before the implementation of the Movement Control Order (MCO) in Malaysia. Extended validation across subsequent periods also indicates relatively satisfactory forecasting performance (with MAPE ranging from 13.12 to 17.09). This research contributed to the field by introducing a novel framework for the prediction of dengue cases over an extended temporal range.

Investigating the Determinants of Dengue Outbreak in Oman: A Study in Seeb

OBJECTIVE

This study investigates the key factors contributing to the dengue outbreak in Oman.

METHODS

Data on climate (e.g., temperature, humidity, wind pace), population traits (e.g., populace density), and vector dynamics (e.g., mosquito density) within the Seeb district of Oman from 2022 to 2023 were gathered. The partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) was performed to study which variables affect dengue outbreaks.

RESULTS

The results indicate that climatic factors significantly affect the dengue vector (β = -0.361, p < 0.001) but do not directly impact the dengue outbreak. Population characteristics, however, have a more substantial impact on dengue transmission, with a total effect (β = 0.231, p = 0.002) being relatively higher than that of the vector itself (total effect: β = 0.116, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Even with ongoing vector intervention efforts, the study underscores the need to include innovative public health interventions when considering environmental and demographic factors. More advantageous surveillance and focused interventions in excessive-threat regions are essential to mitigate the effect of dengue in Oman.

Development of data-driven machine learning models and their potential role in predicting dengue outbreak

Dengue fever is one of the most widespread vector-borne viral infections in the world, resulting in increased socio-economic burden. WHO has reported that 2.5 billion people are infected with dengue fever across the world, resulting in high mortalities in tropical and subtropical regions. The current article endeavors to present an overview of predicting dengue outbreaks through data-based machine-learning models. This artificial intelligence model uses real world data such as dengue surveillance, climatic variables, and epidemiological data and combines big data with machine learning algorithms to forecast dengue. Monitoring and predicting dengue incidences has been significantly enhanced through innovative approaches. This involves gathering data on various climatic factors, including temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, and wind speed, along with monthly records of dengue cases. The study functions as an efficient warning system, enabling the anticipation of dengue outbreaks. This early warning system not only alerts communities but also aids relevant authorities in implementing crucial preventive measures.

Utilization of machine learning for dengue case screening

Dengue causes approximately 10.000 deaths and 100 million symptomatic infections annually worldwide, making it a significant public health concern. To address this, artificial intelligence tools like machine learning can play a crucial role in developing more effective strategies for control, diagnosis, and treatment. This study identifies relevant variables for the screening of dengue cases through machine learning models and evaluates the accuracy of the models. Data from reported dengue cases in the states of Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais for the years 2016 and 2019 were obtained through the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System (SINAN). The mutual information technique was used to assess which variables were most related to laboratory-confirmed dengue cases. Next, a random selection of 10,000 confirmed cases and 10,000 discarded cases was performed, and the dataset was divided into training (70%) and testing (30%). Machine learning models were then tested to classify the cases. It was found that the logistic regression model with 10 variables (gender, age, fever, myalgia, headache, vomiting, nausea, back pain, rash, retro-orbital pain) and the Decision Tree and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) models achieved the best results in decision metrics, with an accuracy of 98%. Therefore, a tree-based model would be suitable for building an application and implementing it on smartphones. This resource would be available to healthcare professionals such as doctors and nurses.

Systematic reviews of machine learning in healthcare: a literature review

INTRODUCTION

The increasing availability of data and computing power has made machine learning (ML) a viable approach to faster, more efficient healthcare delivery.

METHODS

A systematic literature review (SLR) of published SLRs evaluating ML applications in healthcare settings published between1 January 2010 and 27 March 2023 was conducted.

RESULTS

In total 220 SLRs covering 10,462 ML algorithms were reviewed. The main application of AI in medicine related to the clinical prediction and disease prognosis in oncology and neurology with the use of imaging data. Accuracy, specificity, and sensitivity were provided in 56%, 28%, and 25% SLRs respectively. Internal and external validation was reported in 53% and less than 1% of the cases respectively. The most common modeling approach was neural networks (2,454 ML algorithms), followed by support vector machine and random forest/decision trees (1,578 and 1,522 ML algorithms, respectively).

EXPERT OPINION

The review indicated considerable reporting gaps in terms of the ML's performance, both internal and external validation. Greater accessibility to healthcare data for developers can ensure the faster adoption of ML algorithms into clinical practice.

Modern technologies and solutions to enhance surveillance and response systems for emerging zoonotic diseases

Background

Zoonotic diseases originating in animals pose a significant threat to global public health. Recent outbreaks, such as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), have caused widespread illness, death, and socioeconomic disruptions worldwide. To cope with these diseases effectively, it is crucial to strengthen surveillance capabilities and establish rapid response systems.

Aim

The aim of this review to examine the modern technologies and solutions that have the potential to enhance zoonotic disease surveillance and outbreak responses and provide valuable insights into how cutting-edge innovations could be leveraged to prevent, detect, and control emerging zoonotic disease outbreaks. Herein, we discuss advanced tools including big data analytics, artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, geographic information systems, remote sensing, molecular diagnostics, point-of-care testing, telemedicine, digital contact tracing, and early warning systems.

Results

These technologies enable real-time monitoring, the prediction of outbreak risks, early anomaly detection, rapid diagnosis, and targeted interventions during outbreaks. When integrated through collaborative partnerships, these strategies can significantly improve the speed and effectiveness of zoonotic disease control. However, several challenges persist, particularly in resource-limited settings, such as infrastructure limitations, costs, data integration and training requirements, and ethical implementation.

Conclusion

With strategic planning and coordinated efforts, modern technologies and solutions offer immense potential to bolster surveillance and outbreak responses, and serve as a critical resource against emerging zoonotic disease threats worldwide.

Case studies of clinical decision-making through prescriptive models based on machine learning

BACKGROUND

The development of computational methodologies to support clinical decision-making is of vital importance to reduce morbidity and mortality rates. Specifically, prescriptive analytic is a promising area to support decision-making in the monitoring, treatment and prevention of diseases. These aspects remain a challenge for medical professionals and health authorities.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In this study, we propose a methodology for the development of prescriptive models to support decision-making in clinical settings. The prescriptive model requires a predictive model to build the prescriptions. The predictive model is developed using fuzzy cognitive maps and the particle swarm optimization algorithm, while the prescriptive model is developed with an extension of fuzzy cognitive maps that combines them with genetic algorithms. We evaluated the proposed approach in three case studies related to monitoring (warfarin dose estimation), treatment (severe dengue) and prevention (geohelminthiasis) of diseases.

RESULTS

The performance of the developed prescriptive models demonstrated the ability to estimate warfarin doses in coagulated patients, prescribe treatment for severe dengue and generate actions aimed at the prevention of geohelminthiasis. Additionally, the predictive models can predict coagulation indices, severe dengue mortality and soil-transmitted helminth infections.

CONCLUSIONS

The developed models performed well to prescribe actions aimed to monitor, treat and prevent diseases. This type of strategy allows supporting decision-making in clinical settings. However, validations in health institutions are required for their implementation.

Detection of acute dengue virus infection, with and without concurrent malaria infection, in a cohort of febrile children in Kenya, 2014-2019, by clinicians or machine learning algorithms

Poor access to diagnostic testing in resource limited settings restricts surveillance for emerging infections, such as dengue virus (DENV), to clinician suspicion, based on history and exam observations alone. We investigated the ability of machine learning to detect DENV based solely on data available at the clinic visit. We extracted symptom and physical exam data from 6,208 pediatric febrile illness visits to Kenyan public health clinics from 2014-2019 and created a dataset with 113 clinical features. Malaria testing was available at the clinic site. DENV testing was performed afterwards. We randomly sampled 70% of the dataset to develop DENV and malaria prediction models using boosted logistic regression, decision trees and random forests, support vector machines, naïve Bayes, and neural networks with 10-fold cross validation, tuned to maximize accuracy. 30% of the dataset was reserved to validate the models. 485 subjects (7.8%) had DENV, and 3,145 subjects (50.7%) had malaria. 220 (3.5%) subjects had co-infection with both DENV and malaria. In the validation dataset, clinician accuracy for diagnosis of malaria was high (82% accuracy, 85% sensitivity, 80% specificity). Accuracy of the models for predicting malaria diagnosis ranged from 53-69% (35-94% sensitivity, 11-80% specificity). In contrast, clinicians detected only 21 of 145 cases of DENV (80% accuracy, 14% sensitivity, 85% specificity). Of the six models, only logistic regression identified any DENV case (8 cases, 91% accuracy, 5.5% sensitivity, 98% specificity). Without diagnostic testing, interpretation of clinical findings by humans or machines cannot detect DENV at 8% prevalence. Access to point-of-care diagnostic tests must be prioritized to address global inequities in emerging infections surveillance.

A machine learning model to assess potential misdiagnosed dengue hospitalization

Dengue, like other arboviruses with broad clinical spectra, can easily be misdiagnosed as other infectious diseases due to the overlap of signs and symptoms. During large outbreaks, severe dengue cases have the potential to overwhelm the health care system and understanding the burden of dengue hospitalizations is therefore important to better allocate medical care and public health resources. A machine learning model that used data from the Brazilian public healthcare system database and the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) was developed to estimate potential misdiagnosed dengue hospitalizations in Brazil. The data was modeled into a hospitalization level linked dataset. Then, Random Forest, Logistic Regression and Support Vector Machine algorithms were assessed. The algorithms were trained by dividing the dataset in training/test set and performing a cross validation to select the best hyperparameters in each algorithm tested. The evaluation was done based on accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, sensitivity, and specificity. The best model developed was Random Forest with an accuracy of 85% on the final reviewed test. This model shows that 3.4% (13,608) of all hospitalizations in the public healthcare system from 2014 to 2020 could have been dengue misdiagnosed as other diseases. The model was helpful in finding potentially misdiagnosed dengue and might be a useful tool to help public health decision makers in planning resource allocation.

DDPM: A Dengue Disease Prediction and Diagnosis Model Using Sentiment Analysis and Machine Learning Algorithms

The aedes mosquito-borne dengue viruses cause dengue fever, an arboviral disease (DENVs). In 2019, the World Health Organization forecasts a yearly occurrence of infections from 100 million to 400 million, the maximum number of dengue cases ever testified worldwide, prompting WHO to label the virus one of the world’s top ten public health risks. Dengue hemorrhagic fever can progress into dengue shock syndrome, which can be fatal. Dengue hemorrhagic fever can also advance into dengue shock syndrome. To provide accessible and timely supportive care and therapy, it is necessary to have indispensable practical instruments that accurately differentiate Dengue and its subcategories in the early stages of illness development. Dengue fever can be predicted in advance, saving one’s life by warning them to seek proper diagnosis and treatment. Predicting infectious diseases such as dengue is difficult, and most forecast systems are still in their primary stages. In developing dengue predictive models, data from microarrays and RNA-Seq have been used significantly. Bayesian inferences and support vector machine algorithms are two examples of statistical methods that can mine opinions and analyze sentiment from text. In general, these methods are not very strong semantically, and they only work effectively when the text passage inputs are at the level of the page or the paragraph; they are poor miners of sentiment at the level of the sentence or the phrase. In this research, we propose to construct a machine learning method to forecast dengue fever.

Machine Learning-Based Detection of Dengue from Blood Smear Images Utilizing Platelet and Lymphocyte Characteristics

Dengue fever, also known as break-bone fever, can be life-threatening. Caused by DENV, an RNA virus from the Flaviviridae family, dengue is currently a globally important public health problem. The clinical methods available for dengue diagnosis require skilled supervision. They are manual, time-consuming, labor-intensive, and not affordable to common people. This paper describes a method that can support clinicians during dengue diagnosis. It is proposed to automate the peripheral blood smear (PBS) examination using Artificial Intelligence (AI) to aid dengue diagnosis. Nowadays, AI, especially Machine Learning (ML), is increasingly being explored for successful analyses in the biomedical field. Digital pathology coupled with AI holds great potential in developing healthcare services. The automation system developed incorporates a blob detection method to detect platelets and thrombocytopenia from the PBS images. The results achieved are clinically acceptable. Moreover, an ML-based technique is proposed to detect dengue from the images of PBS based on the lymphocyte nucleus. Ten features are extracted, including six morphological and four Gray Level Spatial Dependance Matrix (GLSDM) features, out of the lymphocyte nucleus of normal and dengue cases. Features are then subjected to various popular supervised classifiers built using a ten-fold cross-validation policy for automated dengue detection. Among all the classifiers, the best performance was achieved by Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Decision Tree (DT), each with an accuracy of 93.62%. Furthermore, 1000 deep features extracted using pre-trained MobileNetV2 and 177 textural features extracted using Local binary pattern (LBP) from the lymphocyte nucleus are subjected to feature selection. The ReliefF selected 100 most significant features are then fed to the classifiers. The best performance was attained using an SVM classifier with 95.74% accuracy. With the obtained results, it is evident that this proposed approach can efficiently contribute as an adjuvant tool for diagnosing dengue from the digital microscopic images of PBS.

Dengue Prediction in Latin America Using Machine Learning and the One Health Perspective: A Literature Review

Dengue fever is a serious and growing public health problem in Latin America and elsewhere, intensified by climate change and human mobility. This paper reviews the approaches to the epidemiological prediction of dengue fever using the One Health perspective, including an analysis of how Machine Learning techniques have been applied to it and focuses on the risk factors for dengue in Latin America to put the broader environmental considerations into a detailed understanding of the small-scale processes as they affect disease incidence. Determining that many factors can act as predictors for dengue outbreaks, a large-scale comparison of different predictors over larger geographic areas than those currently studied is lacking to determine which predictors are the most effective. In addition, it provides insight into techniques of Machine Learning used for future predictive models, as well as general workflow for Machine Learning projects of dengue fever.

An autonomous cycle of data analysis tasks for the clinical management of dengue

Dengue is the most widespread vector-borne disease worldwide. Timely diagnosis and treatment of dengue is the main objective of medical professionals to decrease mortality rates. In this paper, we propose an autonomous cycle that integrates data analysis tasks to support decision-making in the clinical management of dengue. Particularly, the autonomous cycle supports dengue diagnosis and treatment. The proposed system was built using machine learning techniques for classification tasks (artificial neural networks and support vector machines) and evolutionary techniques (a genetic algorithm) for prescription tasks (treatment). The system was quantitatively evaluated using dengue-patient datasets reported by healthcare institutions. Our system was compared with previous works using qualitative criteria. The proposed system has the ability to classify a patient's clinical picture and recommend the best treatment option. In particular, the classification of dengue was done with 98% accuracy and a genetic algorithm recommends treatment options for particular patients. Finally, our system is flexible and easily adaptable, which will allow the addition of new tasks for dengue analysis.

A clinical decision-support system for dengue based on fuzzy cognitive maps

Dengue is a viral infection widely distributed in tropical and subtropical regions of the world. Dengue is characterized by high fatality rates when the diagnosis is not made promptly and effectively. To aid in the diagnosis of dengue, we propose a clinical decision-support system that classifies the clinical picture based on its severity, and using causal relationships evaluates the behavior of the clinical and laboratory variables that describe the signs and symptoms related to dengue. The system is based on a fuzzy cognitive map that is defined by the signs, symptoms and laboratory tests used in the conventional diagnosis of dengue. The evaluation of the model was performed on datasets of patients diagnosed with dengue to compare the model with other approaches. The developed model showed a good classification performance with 89.4% accuracy and could evaluate the behaviour of clinical and laboratory variables related to dengue severity (it is an explainable method). This model serves as a diagnostic aid for dengue that can be used by medical professionals in clinical settings.

Ethical Issues in AI-Enabled Disease Surveillance: Perspectives from Global Health

Infectious diseases, as COVID-19 is proving, pose a global health threat in an interconnected world. In the last 20 years, resistant infectious diseases such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), H1N1 influenza (swine flu), Ebola virus, Zika virus, and now COVID-19 have been impacting global health defences, and aggressively flourishing with the rise of global travel, urbanization, climate change, and ecological degradation. In parallel, this extraordinary episode in global human health highlights the potential for artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled disease surveillance to collect and analyse vast amounts of unstructured and real-time data to inform epidemiological and public health emergency responses. The uses of AI in these dynamic environments are increasingly complex, challenging the potential for human autonomous decisions. In this context, our study of qualitative perspectives will consider a responsible AI framework to explore its potential application to disease surveillance in a global health context. Thus far, there is a gap in the literature in considering these multiple and interconnected levels of disease surveillance and emergency health management through the lens of a responsible AI framework.

Assessing the Effect of Climate Variables on the Incidence of Dengue Cases in the Metropolitan Region of Panama City

The present analysis uses the data of confirmed incidence of dengue cases in the metropolitan region of Panama from 1999 to 2017 and climatic variables (air temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity) during the same period to determine if there exists a correlation between these variables. In addition, we compare the predictive performance of two regression models (SARIMA, SARIMAX) and a recurrent neural network model (RNN-LSTM) on the dengue incidence series. For this data from 1999–2014 was used for training and the three subsequent years of incidence 2015–2017 were used for prediction. The results show a correlation coefficient between the climatic variables and the incidence of dengue were low but statistical significant. The RMSE and MAPE obtained for the SARIMAX and RNN-LSTM models were 25.76, 108.44 and 26.16, 59.68, which suggest that any of these models can be used to predict new outbreaks. Although, it can be said that there is a limited role of climatic variables in the outputs the models. The value of this work is that it helps understand the behaviour of cases in a tropical setting as is the Metropolitan Region of Panama City, and provides the basis needed for a much needed early alert system for the region.