Artificial intelligence for forecasting and diagnosing COVID-19 pandemic: A focused review

Advanced forecasting of COVID-19 epidemic: Leveraging ensemble models, advanced optimization, and decomposition techniques

In the global effort to address the outbreak of the new coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) pandemic, accurate forecasting of epidemic patterns has become crucial for implementing successful interventions aimed at preventing and controlling the spread of the disease. The correct prediction of the course of COVID-19 outbreaks is a complex and challenging task, mainly because of the significant volatility in the data series related to COVID-19. Previous studies have been limited by the exclusive use of individual forecasting techniques in epidemic modeling, disregarding the integration of diverse prediction procedures. The lack of attention to detail in this situation can yield worse-than-ideal results. Consequently, this study introduces a novel ensemble framework that integrates three machine learning methods (kernel ridge regression (KRidge), Deep random vector functional link (dRVFL), and ridge regression) within a linear relationship (L-KRidge-dRVFL-Ridge). The optimization of this framework is accomplished through a distinctive approach, specifically adaptive differential evolution and particle swarm optimization (A-DEPSO). Moreover, an effective decomposition method, known as time-varying filter empirical mode decomposition (TVF-EMD), is employed to decompose the input variables. A feature selection technique, specifically using the light gradient boosting machine (LGBM), is also implemented to extract the most influential input variables. The daily datasets of COVID-19 collected from two countries, namely Italy and Poland, were used as the experimental examples. Additionally, all models are implemented to forecast COVID-19 at two-time horizons: 10- and 14-day ahead (t+10 and t+14). According to the results, the proposed model can yield higher correlation coefficient (R) for both case studies: Italy (t+10 = 0.965, t+14 = 0.961) and Poland (t+10 = 0.952, t+14 = 0.940) than the other models. The experimental results demonstrate that the model suggested in this paper has outstanding results in various kinds of complex epidemic prediction situations. The proposed ensemble model demonstrates exceptional accuracy and resilience, outperforming all similar models in terms of efficacy.

Development of a novel dynamic nosocomial infection risk management method for COVID-19 in outpatient settings

BACKGROUND

Application of accumulated experience and management measures in the prevention and control of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has generally depended on the subjective judgment of epidemic intensity, with the quality of prevention and control management being uneven. The present study was designed to develop a novel risk management system for COVID-19 infection in outpatients, with the ability to provide accurate and hierarchical control based on estimated risk of infection.

METHODS

Infection risk was estimated using an auto regressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA). Weekly surveillance data on influenza-like-illness (ILI) among outpatients at Xuanwu Hospital Capital Medical University and Baidu search data downloaded from the Baidu Index in 2021 and 22 were used to fit the ARIMA model. The ability of this model to estimate infection risk was evaluated by determining the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), with a Delphi process used to build consensus on hierarchical infection control measures. COVID-19 control measures were selected by reviewing published regulations, papers and guidelines. Recommendations for surface sterilization and personal protection were determined for low and high risk periods, with these recommendations implemented based on predicted results.

RESULTS

The ARIMA model produced exact estimates for both the ILI and search engine data. The MAPEs of 20-week rolling forecasts for these datasets were 13.65% and 8.04%, respectively. Based on these two risk levels, the hierarchical infection prevention methods provided guidelines for personal protection and disinfection. Criteria were also established for upgrading or downgrading infection prevention strategies based on ARIMA results.

CONCLUSION

These innovative methods, along with the ARIMA model, showed efficient infection protection for healthcare workers in close contact with COVID-19 infected patients, saving nearly 41% of the cost of maintaining high-level infection prevention measures and enhancing control of respiratory infections.

Machine and deep learning methods for clinical outcome prediction based on physiological data of COVID-19 patients: a scoping review

INTRODUCTION

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, numerous machine and deep learning (MDL) methods have been proposed in the literature to analyze patient physiological data. The objective of this review is to summarize various aspects of these methods and assess their practical utility for predicting various clinical outcomes.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Scopus, and Cochrane Library, screened and selected the studies matching the inclusion criteria. The clinical analysis focused on the characteristics of the patient cohorts in the studies included in this review, the specific tasks in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic that machine and deep learning methods were used for, and their practical limitations. The technical analysis focused on the details of specific MDL methods and their performance.

RESULTS

Analysis of the 48 selected studies revealed that the majority (∼54 %) of them examined the application of MDL methods for the prediction of survival/mortality-related patient outcomes, while a smaller fraction (∼13 %) of studies also examined applications to the prediction of patients' physiological outcomes and hospital resource utilization. 21 % of the studies examined the application of MDL methods to multiple clinical tasks. Machine and deep learning methods have been shown to be effective at predicting several outcomes of COVID-19 patients, such as disease severity, complications, intensive care unit (ICU) transfer, and mortality. MDL methods also achieved high accuracy in predicting the required number of ICU beds and ventilators.

CONCLUSION

Machine and deep learning methods have been shown to be valuable tools for predicting disease severity, organ dysfunction and failure, patient outcomes, and hospital resource utilization during the COVID-19 pandemic. The discovered knowledge and our conclusions and recommendations can also be useful to healthcare professionals and artificial intelligence researchers in managing future pandemics.

Stacked deep learning approach for efficient SARS-CoV-2 detection in blood samples

Identifying COVID-19 through blood sample analysis is crucial in managing the disease and improving patient outcomes. Despite its advantages, the current test demands certified laboratories, expensive equipment, trained personnel, and 3-4 h for results, with a notable false-negative rate of 15%-20%. This study proposes a stacked deep-learning approach for detecting COVID-19 in blood samples to distinguish uninfected individuals from those infected with the virus. Three stacked deep learning architectures, namely the StackMean, StackMax, and StackRF algorithms, are introduced to improve the detection quality of single deep learning models. To counter the class imbalance phenomenon in the training data, the Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) algorithm is also implemented, resulting in increased specificity and sensitivity. The efficacy of the methods is assessed by utilizing blood samples obtained from hospitals in Brazil and Italy. Results revealed that the StackMax method greatly boosted the deep learning and traditional machine learning methods' capability to distinguish COVID-19-positive cases from normal cases, while SMOTE increased the specificity and sensitivity of the stacked models. Hypothesis testing is performed to determine if there is a significant statistical difference in the performance between the compared detection methods. Additionally, the significance of blood sample features in identifying COVID-19 is analyzed using the XGBoost (eXtreme Gradient Boosting) technique for feature importance identification. Overall, this methodology could potentially enhance the timely and precise identification of COVID-19 in blood samples.

Unveiling the future of COVID-19 patient care: groundbreaking prediction models for severe outcomes or mortality in hospitalized cases

Background

Previous studies have identified COVID-19 risk factors, such as age and chronic health conditions, linked to severe outcomes and mortality. However, accurately predicting severe illness in COVID-19 patients remains challenging, lacking precise methods.

Objective

This study aimed to leverage clinical real-world data and multiple machine-learning algorithms to formulate innovative predictive models for assessing the risk of severe outcomes or mortality in hospitalized patients with COVID-19.

Methods

Data were obtained from the Taipei Medical University Clinical Research Database (TMUCRD) including electronic health records from three Taiwanese hospitals in Taiwan. This study included patients admitted to the hospitals who received an initial diagnosis of COVID-19 between January 1, 2021, and May 31, 2022. The primary outcome was defined as the composite of severe infection, including ventilator use, intubation, ICU admission, and mortality. Secondary outcomes consisted of individual indicators. The dataset encompassed demographic data, health status, COVID-19 specifics, comorbidities, medications, and laboratory results. Two modes (full mode and simplified mode) are used; the former includes all features, and the latter only includes the 30 most important features selected based on the algorithm used by the best model in full mode. Seven machine learning was employed algorithms the performance of the models was evaluated using metrics such as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity.

Results

The study encompassed 22,192 eligible in-patients diagnosed with COVID-19. In the full mode, the model using the light gradient boosting machine algorithm achieved the highest AUROC value (0.939), with an accuracy of 85.5%, a sensitivity of 0.897, and a specificity of 0.853. Age, vaccination status, neutrophil count, sodium levels, and platelet count were significant features. In the simplified mode, the extreme gradient boosting algorithm yielded an AUROC of 0.935, an accuracy of 89.9%, a sensitivity of 0.843, and a specificity of 0.902.

Conclusion

This study illustrates the feasibility of constructing precise predictive models for severe outcomes or mortality in COVID-19 patients by leveraging significant predictors and advanced machine learning. These findings can aid healthcare practitioners in proactively predicting and monitoring severe outcomes or mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients, improving treatment and resource allocation.

Application of artificial intelligence for the classification of the clinical outcome and therapy in patients with viral infections: The case of COVID-19

BACKGROUND

With the end of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, it becomes intriguing to observe the impact of innovative digital technologies on the diagnosis and management of diseases, in order to improve clinical outcomes for patients.

OBJECTIVE

The research aims to enhance diagnostics, prediction, and personalized treatment for patients across three classes of clinical severity (mild, moderate, and severe). What sets this study apart is its innovative approach, wherein classification extends beyond mere disease presence, encompassing the classification of disease severity. This novel perspective lays the foundation for a crucial decision support system during patient triage.

METHODS

An artificial neural network, as a deep learning technique, enabled the development of a complex model based on the analysis of data collected during the process of diagnosing and treating 1000 patients at the Tešanj General Hospital, Bosnia and Herzegovina.

RESULTS

The final model achieved a classification accuracy of 82.4% on the validation data set, which testifies to the successful application of the artificial neural network in the classification of clinical outcomes and therapy in patients infected with viral infections.

CONCLUSION

The results obtained show that expert systems are valuable tools for decision support in healthcare in communities with limited resources and increased demands. The research has the potential to improve patient care for future epidemics and pandemics.

Deep learning framework for epidemiological forecasting: A study on COVID-19 cases and deaths in the Amazon state of Pará, Brazil

Modeling time series has been a particularly challenging aspect due to the need for constant adjustments in a rapidly changing environment, data uncertainty, dependencies between variables, volatile fluctuations, and the need to identify ideal hyperparameters. The present study presents a Framework capable of making projections from time series related to cases and deaths by COVID-19 in the Amazonian state of Pará, in Brazil. For the first time, deep learning models such as TCN, TRANSFORMER, TFT, N-BEATS, and N-HiTS were assessed for this purpose. The ARIMA statistical model was also used in post-processing for residual adjustment and short-term smoothing of the generated forecasts. The Framework generates probabilistic forecasts, with multivariate support, considering the following variables: daily cases per day of the first symptom, cases published daily, the occurrence of deaths, deaths published daily, and percentage of daily vaccination. The generated predictions are statistically evaluated by determining the best model for 7-day moving average projections using evaluating metrics such as MSE, RMSE, MAPE, sMAPE, r2, Coefficient of Variation, and residual analysis. As a result, the generated projections showed an average error of 5.4% for Cases Publication, 8.0% for Cases Symptoms, 11.12% for Deaths Publication, and 4.6% for Deaths Occurrence, with the N-HiTS and N-BEATS models obtaining better results. In general terms, the use of deep learning models to predict cases and deaths from COVID-19 has proven to be a valuable practice for analyzing the spread of the virus, which allows health managers to better understand and respond to this kind of pandemic outbreak.

ReGen-DTI: A novel generative drug target interaction model for predicting potential drug candidates against SARS-COV2

Covid-19 has caused massive numbers of infections and fatalities globally. In response, there has been a large-scale experimental and computational research effort to study and develop drugs. Towards this, Deep learning techniques are used for the generation of potential novel drug candidates that are proven to be effective against exploring large molecular search spaces. Recent advances in reinforcement learning in conjunction with generative techniques has proven to be a promising field in the area of drug discovery. In this regard, we propose a generative drug discovery approach using reinforcement techniques for sampling novel molecules that bind to the main protease of SARS-COV2. The generative method reported significant validity scores for the generated novel molecules and captured the underlying features of the training molecules. Further, the model is fine-tuned on existing re-purposed molecules which are active towards specific target proteins based on similarity metrics. Upon fine tuning the model generated 92.71% valid, 93.55% unique, and 100% novel molecules. Unlike previous methods which are dependent on docking procedures, we proposed a deep learning based novel drug target interaction (DTI) model to find the binding affinity between candidate molecules and target protease sequence. Finally, the binding affinity of the generated molecules is predicted against the 3CLPro main protease by using the proposed DTI model. Most of the generated molecules have shown binding affinity scores <100 nM (lower the better), which are significantly better compared to the existing commercial drugs including Remdesevir.

Cluster analysis and forecasting of viruses incidence growth curves: Application to SARS-CoV-2

The sanitary emergency caused by COVID-19 has compromised countries and generated a worldwide health and economic crisis. To provide support to the countries' responses, numerous lines of research have been developed. The spotlight was put on effectively and rapidly diagnosing and predicting the evolution of the pandemic, one of the most challenging problems of the past months. This work contributes to the existing literature by developing a two-step methodology to analyze the transmission rate, designing models applied to territories with similar pandemic behavior characteristics. Virus transmission is considered as bacterial growth curves to understand the spread of the virus and to make predictions about its future evolution. Hence, an analytical clustering procedure is first applied to create groups of locations where the virus transmission rate behaved similarly in the different outbreaks. A curve decomposition process based on an iterative polynomial process is then applied, obtaining meaningful forecasting features. Information of the territories belonging to the same cluster is merged to build models capable of simultaneously predicting the 14-day incidence in several locations using Evolutionary Artificial Neural Networks. The methodology is applied to Andalusia (Spain), although it is applicable to any region across the world. Individual models trained for a specific territory are carried out for comparison purposes. The results demonstrate that this methodology achieves statistically similar, or even better, performance for most of the locations. In addition to being extremely competitive, the main advantage of the proposal lies in its complexity cost reduction. The total number of parameters to be estimated is reduced up to 93.51% for the short term and 93.31% for the mid-term forecasting, respectively. Moreover, the number of required models is reduced by 73.53% and 58.82% for the short- and mid-term forecasting horizons.

Improved LSTM-based deep learning model for COVID-19 prediction using optimized approach

Individuals in any country are badly impacted both economically and physically whenever an epidemic of infectious illnesses breaks out. A novel coronavirus strain was responsible for the outbreak of the coronavirus sickness in 2019. Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is the name that the World Health Organization (WHO) officially gave to the pneumonia that was caused by the novel coronavirus on February 11, 2020. The use of models that are informed by machine learning is currently a major focus of study in the field of improved forecasting. By displaying annual trends, forecasting models can be of use in performing impact assessments of potential outcomes. In this paper, proposed forecast models consisting of time series models such as long short-term memory (LSTM), bidirectional long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM), generalized regression unit (GRU), and dense-LSTM have been evaluated for time series prediction of confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries in 12 major countries that have been affected by COVID-19. Tensorflow1.0 was used for programming. Indices known as mean absolute error (MAE), root means square error (RMSE), Median Absolute Error (MEDAE) and r2 score are utilized in the process of evaluating the performance of models. We presented various ways to time-series forecasting by making use of LSTM models (LSTM, BiLSTM), and we compared these proposed methods to other machine learning models to evaluate the performance of the models. Our study suggests that LSTM based models are among the most advanced models to forecast time series data.

Recommendations for the care of patients with cardiovascular disease in health emergency situations: a call to action

COVID-19 has had a negative impact on the health care of patients with cardiovascular disease and patients at high risk of cardiovascular disease. The restrictions affecting access to the health care system have conditioned the care received, resulting in poorer control and a higher risk of events. Taking action to improve the care provided during health emergencies is mandatory. It is important to promote the development of telemedicine and patient empowerment by fostering health literacy and a higher degree of self-care. In addition, primary care and coordination between health care levels should be improved. Moreover, the simplification and optimization of treatment, for example, using the cardiovascular polypill, have led to an improvement in adherence, better control of vascular risk factors, and a reduced risk of events. The present document provides specific recommendations for improving the care provided to patients under a health emergency.

The IHI Rochester Report 2022 on Healthcare Informatics Research: Resuming After the CoViD-19

In 2020, the CoViD-19 pandemic spread worldwide in an unexpected way and suddenly modified many life issues, including social habits, social relationships, teaching modalities, and more. Such changes were also observable in many different healthcare and medical contexts. Moreover, the CoViD-19 pandemic acted as a stress test for many research endeavors, and revealed some limitations, especially in contexts where research results had an immediate impact on the social and healthcare habits of millions of people. As a result, the research community is called to perform a deep analysis of the steps already taken, and to re-think steps for the near and far future to capitalize on the lessons learned due to the pandemic. In this direction, on June 09th-11th, 2022, a group of twelve healthcare informatics researchers met in Rochester, MN, USA. This meeting was initiated by the Institute for Healthcare Informatics-IHI, and hosted by the Mayo Clinic. The goal of the meeting was to discuss and propose a research agenda for biomedical and health informatics for the next decade, in light of the changes and the lessons learned from the CoViD-19 pandemic. This article reports the main topics discussed and the conclusions reached. The intended readers of this paper, besides the biomedical and health informatics research community, are all those stakeholders in academia, industry, and government, who could benefit from the new research findings in biomedical and health informatics research. Indeed, research directions and social and policy implications are the main focus of the research agenda we propose, according to three levels: the care of individuals, the healthcare system view, and the population view.

Added value of chest CT in a machine learning-based prediction model to rule out COVID-19 before inpatient admission: A retrospective university network study

PURPOSE

During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, hospitals still face the challenge of timely identification of infected individuals before inpatient admission. An artificial intelligence approach based on an established clinical network may improve prospective pandemic preparedness.

METHOD

Supervised machine learning was used to construct diagnostic models to predict COVID-19. A pooled database was retrospectively generated from 4437 participant data that were collected between January 2017 and October 2020 at 12 German centers that belong to the radiological cooperative network of the COVID-19 (RACOON) consortium. A total of 692 (15.6 %) participants were COVID-19 positive according to the reference of the reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction test. The diagnostic models included chest CT features (model R), clinical examination and laboratory test features (model CL), or all three feature categories (model RCL). Performance outcomes included accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, negative and positive predictive value, and area under the receiver operating curve (AUC).

RESULTS

Performance of predictive models improved significantly by adding chest CT features to clinical evaluation and laboratory test features. Without (model CL) and with inclusion of chest CT (model RCL), sensitivity was 0.82 and 0.89 (p < 0.0001), specificity was 0.84 and 0.89 (p < 0.0001), negative predictive value was 0.96 and 0.97 (p < 0.0001), AUC was 0.92 and 0.95 (p < 0.0001), and proportion of false negative classifications was 2.6 % and 1.7 % (p < 0.0001), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Addition of chest CT features to machine learning-based predictive models improves the effectiveness in ruling out COVID-19 before inpatient admission to regular wards.

Integration of Moran's I, geographically weighted regression (GWR), and ordinary least square (OLS) models in spatiotemporal modeling of COVID-19 outbreak in Qom and Mazandaran Provinces, Iran

Globally, the COVID-19 pandemic is a top-level public health concern. This paper attempts to identify the COVID-19 pandemic in Qom and Mazandaran provinces, Iran using spatial analysis approaches. This study was based on secondary data of confirmed cases and deaths from February 3, 2020, to late October 2021, in two Qom and Mazandaran provinces from hospitals and the website of the National Institute of Health. In this paper, three geographical models in ArcGIS 10.8.1 were utilized to analyze and evaluate COVID-19, including geographic weight regression (GWR), ordinary least squares (OLS), and spatial autocorrelation (Moran I). The results from this study indicate that the rate of scattering of confirmed cases for Qom province for the period was 44.25%, while the rate of dispersal of the deaths was 4.34%. Based on the GWR and OLS model, Moran's statistics demonstrated that confirmed cases, deaths, and recovered followed a clustering pattern during the study period. Moran's Z-score for all three indicators of confirmed cases, deaths, and recovered was confirmed to be greater than 2.5 (95% confidence level) for both GWR and OLS models. The spatial distribution of indicators of confirmed cases, deaths, and recovered based on the GWR model has been more scattered in the northwestern and southwestern cities of Qom province. Whereas the spatial distribution of the recoveries of the COVID-19 pandemic in Qom province was 61.7%, the central regions of this province had the highest spread of recoveries. The spatial spread of the COVID-19 pandemic from February 3, 2020, to October 2021 in Mazandaran province was 35.57%, of which 2.61% died, according to information published by the COVID-19 pandemic headquarters. Most confirmed cases and deaths are scattered in the north of this province. The ordinary least squares model results showed that the spatial dispersion of recovered people from the COVID-19 pandemic is more significant in the central and southern regions of Mazandaran province. The Z-score for the deaths Index is more significant than 14.314. The results obtained from this study and the information published by the National Headquarters for the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic showed that tourism and pilgrimages are possible factors for the spatial distribution of the COVID-19 pandemic in Qom and Mazandaran provinces. The spatial information obtained from these modeling approaches could provide general insights to authorities and researchers for further targeted investigations and policies in similar circumcises.

A predictive decision support system for coronavirus disease 2019 response management and medical logistic planning

Objective

Coronavirus disease 2019 demonstrated the inconsistencies in adequately responding to biological threats on a global scale due to a lack of powerful tools for assessing various factors in the formation of the epidemic situation and its forecasting. Decision support systems have a role in overcoming the challenges in health monitoring systems in light of current or future epidemic outbreaks. This paper focuses on some applied examples of logistic planning, a key service of the Earth Cognitive System for Coronavirus Disease 2019 project, here presented, evidencing the added value of artificial intelligence algorithms towards predictive hypotheses in tackling health emergencies.

Methods

Earth Cognitive System for Coronavirus Disease 2019 is a decision support system designed to support healthcare institutions in monitoring, management and forecasting activities through artificial intelligence, social media analytics, geospatial analysis and satellite imaging. The monitoring, management and prediction of medical equipment logistic needs rely on machine learning to predict the regional risk classification colour codes, the emergency rooms attendances, and the forecast of regional medical supplies, synergically enhancing geospatial and temporal dimensions.

Results

The overall performance of the regional risk colour code classifier yielded a high value of the macro-average F1-score (0.82) and an accuracy of 85%. The prediction of the emergency rooms attendances for the Lazio region yielded a very low root mean square error (<11 patients) and a high positive correlation with the actual values for the major hospitals of the Lazio region which admit about 90% of the region's patients. The prediction of the medicinal purchases for the regions of Lazio and Piemonte has yielded a low root mean squared percentage error of 16%.

Conclusions

Accurate forecasting of the evolution of new cases and drug utilisation enables the resulting excess demand throughout the supply chain to be managed more effectively. Forecasting during a pandemic becomes essential for effective government decision-making, managing supply chain resources, and for informing tough policy decisions.

Generalizing factors of COVID-19 vaccine attitudes in different regions: A summary generation and topic modeling approach

Objective

The goal of this study is to use summary generation and topic modeling to identify factors contributing to vaccine attitudes for three different vaccine brands, with the aim of generalizing these factors across different regions.

Methods

A total of 5562 tweets about three vaccine brands (Sinovac, AstraZeneca, and Pfizer) were collected from 14 December 2020 to 30 December 2021. BERTopic clustering is used to group the tweets into topics, and then contrastive learning (CL) is adopted to generate summaries of each topic. The main content of each topic is generalized into three factors that contribute to vaccine attitudes: vaccine-related factors, health system-related factors, and individual social attributes.

Results

BERTopic clustering outperforms Latent Dirichlet Allocation clustering in our analysis. It can also be found that using CL for summary generation helped to better model the topics, particularly at the center-point of the clustering. Our model identifies three main factors contributing to vaccine attitudes that are consistent across different regions.

Conclusions

Our study demonstrates the effectiveness of deep learning methods for identifying factors contributing to vaccine attitudes in different regions. By determining these factors, policymakers and medical institutions can develop more effective strategies for addressing concerns related to the vaccination process.

Epidemic forecasting based on mobility patterns: an approach and experimental evaluation on COVID-19 Data

During an epidemic, decision-makers in public health need accurate predictions of the future case numbers, in order to control the spread of new cases and allow efficient resource planning for hospital needs and capacities. In particular, considering that infectious diseases are spread through human-human transmissions, the analysis of spatio-temporal mobility data can play a fundamental role to enable epidemic forecasting. This paper presents the design and implementation of a predictive approach, based on spatial analysis and regressive models, to discover spatio-temporal predictive epidemic patterns from mobility and infection data. The experimental evaluation, performed on mobility and COVID-19 data collected in the city of Chicago, is aimed to assess the effectiveness of the approach in a real-world scenario. 

Comparative Evaluation of the Multilayer Perceptron Approach with Conventional ARIMA in Modeling and Prediction of COVID-19 Daily Death Cases

COVID-19 continues to pose a dangerous global health threat, as cases grow rapidly and deaths increase day by day. This increasing phenomenon does not only affect economic policy but also international policy around the world. In this paper, Pakistan daily death cases of COVID-19, from February 25, 2020, to March 23, 2022, have been modeled using the long-established autoregressive-integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and the machine learning multilayer perceptron (MLP) model. The most befitting model is selected based on the root mean square error (RMSE), mean square error (MSE), and mean absolute error (MAE). Values of the key performance indicator (KPI) showed that the MLP model outperformed the ARIMA model. The MLP model with 20 hidden layers, which emerged as the overall most apt model, was used to predict future daily COVID-19 deaths in Pakistan to enable policymakers and health professionals to put in place systematic measures to reduce death cases. We encourage the Government of Pakistan to intensify its vaccination campaign and encourage everyone to get vaccinated.

Multi-Omics and Artificial Intelligence-Guided Drug Repositioning: Prospects, Challenges, and Lessons Learned from COVID-19

Drug repurposing is of interest for therapeutics innovation in many human diseases including coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Methodological innovations in drug repurposing are currently being empowered by convergence of omics systems science and digital transformation of life sciences. This expert review article offers a systematic summary of the application of artificial intelligence (AI), particularly machine learning (ML), to drug repurposing and classifies and introduces the common clustering, dimensionality reduction, and other methods. We highlight, as a present-day high-profile example, the involvement of AI/ML-based drug discovery in the COVID-19 pandemic and discuss the collection and sharing of diverse data types, and the possible futures awaiting drug repurposing in an era of AI/ML and digital technologies. The article provides new insights on convergence of multi-omics and AI-based drug repurposing. We conclude with reflections on the various pathways to expedite innovation in drug development through drug repurposing for prompt responses to the current COVID-19 pandemic and future ecological crises in the 21st century.

Hybrid learning method based on feature clustering and scoring for enhanced COVID-19 breath analysis by an electronic nose

Breath pattern analysis based on an electronic nose (e-nose), which is a noninvasive, fast, and low-cost method, has been continuously used for detecting human diseases, including the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Nevertheless, having big data with several available features is not always beneficial because only a few of them will be relevant and useful to distinguish different breath samples (i.e., positive and negative COVID-19 samples). In this study, we develop a hybrid machine learning-based algorithm combining hierarchical agglomerative clustering analysis and permutation feature importance method to improve the data analysis of a portable e-nose for COVID-19 detection (GeNose C19). Utilizing this learning approach, we can obtain an effective and optimum feature combination, enabling the reduction by half of the number of employed sensors without downgrading the classification model performance. Based on the cross-validation test results on the training data, the hybrid algorithm can result in accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity values of (86 ± 3)%, (88 ± 6)%, and (84 ± 6)%, respectively. Meanwhile, for the testing data, a value of 87% is obtained for all the three metrics. These results exhibit the feasibility of using this hybrid filter-wrapper feature-selection method to pave the way for optimizing the GeNose C19 performance.

Cognitive Networks Extract Insights on COVID-19 Vaccines from English and Italian Popular Tweets: Anticipation, Logistics, Conspiracy and Loss of Trust

Monitoring social discourse about COVID-19 vaccines is key to understanding how large populations perceive vaccination campaigns. This work reconstructs how popular and trending posts framed semantically and emotionally COVID-19 vaccines on Twitter. We achieve this by merging natural language processing, cognitive network science and AI-based image analysis. We focus on 4765 unique popular tweets in English or Italian about COVID-19 vaccines between December 2020 and March 2021. One popular English tweet contained in our data set was liked around 495,000 times, highlighting how popular tweets could cognitively affect large parts of the population. We investigate both text and multimedia content in tweets and build a cognitive network of syntactic/semantic associations in messages, including emotional cues and pictures. This network representation indicates how online users linked ideas in social discourse and framed vaccines along specific semantic/emotional content. The English semantic frame of “vaccine” was highly polarised between trust/anticipation (towards the vaccine as a scientific asset saving lives) and anger/sadness (mentioning critical issues with dose administering). Semantic associations with “vaccine,” “hoax” and conspiratorial jargon indicated the persistence of conspiracy theories and vaccines in extremely popular English posts. Interestingly, these were absent in Italian messages. Popular tweets with images of people wearing face masks used language that lacked the trust and joy found in tweets showing people with no masks. This difference indicates a negative effect attributed to face-covering in social discourse. Behavioural analysis revealed a tendency for users to share content eliciting joy, sadness and disgust and to like sad messages less. Both patterns indicate an interplay between emotions and content diffusion beyond sentiment. After its suspension in mid-March 2021, “AstraZeneca” was associated with trustful language driven by experts. After the deaths of a small number of vaccinated people in mid-March, popular Italian tweets framed “vaccine” by crucially replacing earlier levels of trust with deep sadness. Our results stress how cognitive networks and innovative multimedia processing open new ways for reconstructing online perceptions about vaccines and trust.