Operational evaluation of the RLINE dispersion model for studies of traffic-related air pollutants

Integrating traffic pollution dispersion into spatiotemporal NO2 prediction

Accurately predicting ambient NO2 concentrations has great public health importance, as traffic-related air pollution is of major concern in urban areas. In this study, we present a novel approach incorporating traffic contribution to NO2 prediction in a fine-scale spatiotemporal model. We used nationally available traffic estimate dataset in a scalable dispersion model, Research LINE source dispersion model (RLINE). RLINE estimates then served as an additional input for a validated spatiotemporal pollution modeling approach. Our analysis uses measurement data collected by the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution in the greater Los Angeles area between 2006 and 2009. We predicted road-type-specific annual average daily traffic (AADT) on road segments via national-level spatial regression models with nearest-neighbor Gaussian processes (spNNGP); the spNNGP models were trained based on over half a million point-level traffic volume measurements nationwide. AADT estimates on all highways were combined with meteorological data in RLINE models. We evaluated two strategies to integrate RLINE estimates into spatiotemporal NO2 models: 1) incorporating RLINE estimates as a space-only covariate and, 2) as a spatiotemporal covariate. The results showed that integrating the RLINE estimates as a space-only covariate improved overall cross-validation R2 from 0.83 to 0.84, and root mean squared error (RMSE) from 3.58 to 3.48 ppb. Incorporating the estimates as a spatiotemporal covariate resulted in similar model improvement. The improvement of our spatiotemporal model was more profound in roadside monitors alongside highways, with R2 increasing from 0.56 to 0.66 and RMSE decreasing from 3.52 to 3.11 ppb. The observed improvement indicates that the RLINE estimates enhanced the model's predictive capabilities for roadside NO2 concentration gradients even after considering a comprehensive list of geographic covariates including the distance to roads. Our proposed modeling framework can be generalized to improve high-resolution prediction of NO2 exposure - especially near major roads in the U.S.

California's zero-emission vehicle adoption brings air quality benefits yet equity gaps persist

Zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) adoption is a key climate mitigation tool, but its environmental justice implications remain unclear. Here, we quantify ZEV adoption at the census tract level in California from 2015 to 2020 and project it to 2035 when all new passenger vehicles sold are expected to be ZEVs. We then apply an integrated traffic model together with a dispersion model to simulate air quality changes near roads in the Greater Los Angeles. We found that per capita ZEV ownership in non-disadvantaged communities (non-DACs) as defined by the state of California is 3.8 times of that in DACs. Racial and ethnic minorities owned fewer ZEVs regardless of DAC designation. While DAC residents receive 40% more pollutant reduction than non-DACs due to intercommunity ZEV trips in 2020, they remain disproportionately exposed to higher levels of traffic-related air pollution. With more ZEVs in 2035, the exposure disparity narrows. However, to further reduce disparities, the focus must include trucks, emphasizing the need for targeted ZEV policies that address persistent pollution burdens among DAC and racial and ethnic minority residents.

Health and economic benefits of heavy-duty diesel truck emission control policies in Beijing

PM2.5 emissions from heavy-duty diesel trucks (HDDTs) have a significant impact on air quality, human health, and climate change, and seriously threaten the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Globally, a series of emission control measures have been implemented to reduce pollution emissions from HDDTs. Current studies assessing the impact of these measures on air quality and human health have mainly used coarse-grained emission data as input to dispersion model, resulting in the inability to capture the spatiotemporal variability of pollutant concentrations and tending to increase the uncertainty of health impact assessment results. In this study, we quantified the impact of pollution control policies for HDDTs in Beijing on PM2.5 concentrations, human health, and economic losses by integrating policy scenario analysis, pollution dispersion simulation, public health impact and economic benefit assessment models, supported by high spatiotemporal resolution emission data from HDDTs. The results show that PM2.5 concentrations from HDDTs exhibit significant spatial aggregation characteristics, with the intensity of aggregation at night being about twice as high as that during the day. The emission hotspots are mainly concentrated in the sixth, fifth and fourth rings and major highways. Compared to the "business as usual" scenario in 2018, the current policy of updating the fuel standard to China VI and the emission standard to China 6 can reduce PM2.5 concentrations by 96.72%, thereby avoiding 612 premature deaths, which is equivalent to obtaining economic benefits of 1.65 billion CNY. This study further emphasizes the importance of high spatiotemporal resolution emission data during traffic dispersion modeling. The results can help improve the understanding of the effectiveness of emission reduction measures for HDDTs from a health benefit perspective.

Characterizing Determinants of Near-Road Ambient Air Quality for an Urban Intersection and a Freeway Site

INTRODUCTION

Near-road ambient air pollution concentrations that are affected by vehicle emissions are typically characterized by substantial spatial variability with respect to distance from the roadway and temporal variability based on the time of day, day of week, and season. The goal of this work is to identify variables that explain either temporal or spatial variability based on case studies for a freeway site and an urban intersection site. The key hypothesis is that dispersion modeling of near-road pollutant concentrations could be improved by adding estimates or indices for site-specific explanatory variables, particularly related to traffic. Based on case studies for a freeway site and an urban intersection site, the specific aims of this project are to (1) develop and test regression models that explain variability in traffic-related air pollutant (TRAP) ambient concentration at two near-roadway locations; (2) develop and test refined proxies for land use, traffic, emissions and dispersion; and (3) prioritize inputs according to their ability to explain variability in ambient concentrations to help focus efforts for future data collection and model development.

The key pollutants that are the key focus of this work include nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO), black carbon (BC), fine particulate matter (PM2.5; PM ≤ 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter), ultrafine particles (UFPs; PM ≤ 0.1 μm in aerodynamic diameter), and ozone (O3). NOx, CO, and BC are tracers of vehicle emissions and dispersion. PM2.5 is influenced by vehicle table emissions and regional sources. UFPs are sensitive to primary vehicle emissions. Secondary particles can form near roadways and on regional scales, influencing both PM2.5 and UFP concentrations. O3 concentrations are influenced by interaction with NOx near the roadway. Nitrogen dioxide (NO2), CO, PM2.5, and O3 are regulated under the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) because of demonstrated health effects. BC and UFPs are of concern for their potential health effects. Therefore, these pollutants are the focus of this work.

METHODS

The methodological approach includes case studies for which variables are identified and assesses their ability to explain either temporal or spatial variability in pollutant ambient concentrations. The case studies include one freeway location and one urban intersection. The case studies address (1) temporal variability at a fixed monitor 10 meters from a freeway; (2) downwind concentrations perpendicular to the same location; (3) variability in 24-hour average pollutant concentrations at five sites near an urban intersection; and (4) spatiotemporal variability along a walking path near that same intersection.

The study boundary encompasses key factors in the continuum from vehicle emissions to near-road exposure concentrations. These factors include land use, transportation infrastructure and traffic control, vehicle mix, vehicle (traffic) flow, on-road emissions, meteorology, transport and evolution (transformation) of primary emissions, and production of secondary pollutants, and their resulting impact on measured concentrations in the near-road environment. We conducted field measurements of land use, traffic, vehicle emissions, and near-road ambient concentrations in the vicinity of two newly installed fixed-site monitors. One is a monitoring station jointly operated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) and the North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality (NC DEQ) on I-40 between Airport Boulevard and I-540 in Wake County, North Carolina. The other is a fixed-site monitor for measuring PM2.5 at the North Carolina Central University (NCCU) campus on E. Lawson Street in Durham, North Carolina. We refer to these two locations as the freeway site and the urban site, respectively. We developed statistical models for the freeway and urban sites.

RESULTS

We quantified land use metrics at each site, such as distances to the nearest bus stop. For the freeway site, we quantified lane-by-lane total vehicle count, heavy vehicle (HV) count, and several vehicle-activity indices that account for distance from each lane to the roadside monitor. For the urban site, we quantified vehicle counts for all 12 turning movements through the intersection. At each site, we measured microscale vehicle tailpipe emissions using a portable emission measurement system.

At the freeway site, we measured the spatial gradient of NOx, BC, UFPs, and PM, quantified particle size distributions at selected distances from the roadway and assessed partitioning of particles as a function of evolving volatility. We also quantified fleet-average emission factors for several pollutants.

At the urban site, we measured daily average concentrations of nitric oxide (NO), NOx, O3, and PM2.5 at five sites surrounding the intersection of interest; we also measured high resolution (1-second to 10-second averages) concentrations of O3, PM2.5, and UFPs along a pedestrian transect. At both sites, the Research LINE-source (R-LINE) dispersion model was applied to predict concentration gradients based on the physical dispersion of pollution.

Statistical models were developed for each site for selected pollutants. With variables for local wind direction, heavy-vehicle index, temperature, and day type, the multiple coefficient of determination (R2) was 0.61 for hourly NOx concentrations at the freeway site. An interaction effect of the dispersion model and a real-time traffic index contributed only 24% of the response variance for NOx at the freeway site. Local wind direction, measured near the road, was typically more important than wind direction measured some distance away, and vehicle-activity metrics directly related to actual real-time traffic were important. At the urban site, variability in pollutant concentrations measured for a pedestrian walk-along route was explained primarily by real-time traffic metrics, meteorology, time of day, season, and real-world vehicle tailpipe emissions, depending on the pollutant. The regression models explained most of the variance in measured concentrations for BC, PM, UFPs, NO, and NOx at the freeway site and for UFPs and O3 at the urban site pedestrian transect.

CONCLUSIONS

Among the set of candidate explanatory variables, typically only a few were needed to explain most of the variability in observed ambient concentrations. At the freeway site, the concentration gradients perpendicular to the road were influenced by dilution, season, time of day, and whether the pollutant underwent chemical or physical transformations. The explanatory variables that were useful in explaining temporal variability in measured ambient concentrations, as well as spatial variability at the urban site, were typically localized real-time traffic-volume indices and local wind direction. However, the specific set of useful explanatory variables was site, context (e.g., next to road, quadrants around an intersection, pedestrian transects), and pollutant specific. Among the most novel of the indicators, variability in real-time measured tailpipe exhaust emissions was found to help explain variability in pedestrian transect UFP concentrations. UFP particle counts were very sensitive to real-time traffic indicators at both the freeway and urban sites. Localized site-specific data on traffic and meteorology contributed to explaining variability in ambient concentrations. HV traffic influenced near-road air quality at the freeway site more so than at the urban site. The statistical models typically explained most of the observed variability but were relatively simple. The results here are site-specific and not generalizable, but they are illustrative that near-road air quality can be highly sensitive to localized real-time indicators of traffic and meteorology.

Lowering mortality risks in urban areas by containing atmospheric pollution

OBJECTIVES

Although studies collectively examining the traffic and residential heat pollutant emissions are abundant, research investigations dedicated to Cyprus are scarce. This investigation has simulated the levels of air pollutants, namely, CO, NO_x, PM_2.5, and PM₁₀ and reconciled them with actual air quality measurements in Nicosia, Cyprus, during a 9-month period at an hourly resolution. To this end, several scenarios and cases were formulated to tackle emissions and minimise human mortality risks in the city.

METHODS

The GRAL dispersion model was used to project pollution levels. Nine different traffic scenarios were devised to estimate variations in concentration of PM_2.5 and NO_x under various policies, such as banning diesel passenger vehicles (PV), light duty vehicles (LDV), non-Euro 6 standards vehicles, stringent speed limits and a ubiquitous roll-out of electric passenger vehicles. Moreover, 4 distinct cases were analysed to year 2030 considering a fluctuation in traffic of ±20% whereas all vehicles conform to Euro 6 standards. Three additional policies examined the prohibition of diesel PV and LDV, 80% electric PV and outlawing fireplaces. Drawing on the findings of these scenarios and cases, the total cardiovascular and respiratory mortality rates at the capital of Cyprus, Nicosia, were deduced.

RESULTS

The most promising scenario in terms of curbing emissions was to ban non-Euro 6 vehicles and diesel PV and LDV which could contain average NO_x concentration, in Nicosia, from 52.9 μg/m³ to 15.0 μg/m³. If this policy were to be implemented, it could have saved 70% of the premature deaths tied to NO_x emissions. For particulate matter, banning fireplaces and abandoning non-Euro 6 vehicles could lower average concentrations from 18.3 μg/m³ to 13.1 μg/m³, saving at least 30% of the people poised to lose their lives from particulate matter risks.

CONCLUSION

Traffic and residential heat policies are not easy to implement. However, our study has demonstrated that the most effective policies for curbing NO_x emissions would be to ensure that all vehicles abide with the Euro 6 standards and, concurrently, ban diesel passenger and light duty vehicles. Lastly, phasing out domestic fireplaces appears to be the most promising solution for containing particulate matter, in 2030.

Exposure to Primary Air Pollutants Generated by Highway Traffic and Daily Mortality Risk in Near-Road Communities: A Case-Crossover Study

Most epidemiologic studies fail to capture the impact of spatiotemporal fluctuations in traffic on exposure to traffic-related air pollutants in the near-road population. Using a case-crossover design and the Research LINE source (R-LINE) dispersion model with spatiotemporally resolved highway traffic data, we quantified associations between primary pollutants generated by highway traffic-particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 μm (PM2.5), oxides of nitrogen (NOx), and black carbon (BC)-and daily nonaccidental, respiratory, cardiovascular, and cerebrovascular mortality among persons who had resided within 1 km (0.6 mile) of major highways in the Puget Sound area of Washington State between 2009 and 2013. We estimated these associations using conditional logistic regression, adjusting for time-varying covariates. Although highly resolved modeled concentrations of PM2.5, NOx, and BC from highway traffic in the hours before death were used, we found no evidence of an association between mortality and the preceding 24-hour average PM2.5 exposure (odds ratio = 0.99, 95% confidence interval: 0.96, 1.02) or exposure during shorter averaging periods. This work did not support the hypothesis that mortality risk was meaningfully higher with greater exposures to PM2.5, NOx, and BC from highways in near-road populations, though we did incorporate a novel approach to estimate exposure to traffic-generated air pollution based on detailed traffic congestion data.

Near-road air quality modelling that incorporates input variability and model uncertainty

Dispersion modelling is an effective tool to estimate traffic-related fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) concentrations in near-road environments. However, many sources of uncertainty and variability are associated with the process of near-road dispersion modelling, which renders a single-number estimate of concentration a poor indicator of near-road air quality. In this study, we propose an integrated traffic-emission-dispersion modelling chain that incorporates several major sources of uncertainty. Our approach generates PM_2.5 probability distributions capturing the uncertainty in emissions and meteorological conditions. Traffic PM_2.5 emissions from 7 a.m. to 6 p.m. were estimated at 3400 ± 117 g. Modelled PM_2.5 levels were validated against measurements along a major arterial road in Toronto, Canada. We observe large overlapping areas between modelled and measured PM_2.5 distributions at all locations along the road, indicating a high likelihood that the model can reproduce measured concentrations. A policy scenario expressing the impact of reductions in truck emissions revealed that a 30% reduction in near-road PM_2.5 concentrations can be achieved by upgrading close to 55% of the current trucks circulating along the corridor. A speed limit reduction of 10 km/h could lead to statistically significant increases in PM_2.5 concentrations at twelve out of the eighteen locations.

A hybrid approach to predict daily NO2 concentrations at city block scale

Estimating the ambient concentration of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) is challenging because NO2 generated by local fossil fuel combustion varies greatly in concentration across space and time. This study demonstrates an integrated hybrid approach combining dispersion modeling and land use regression (LUR) to predict daily NO2 concentrations at a high spatial resolution (e.g., 50 m) in the New York tri-state area. The daily concentration of traffic-related NO2 was estimated at the Environmental Protection Agency's NO2 monitoring sites in the study area for the years 2015-2017, using the Research LINE source (R-LINE) model with inputs of traffic data provided by the Highway Performance and Management System and meteorological data provided by the NOAA Integrated Surface Database. We used the R-LINE-predicted daily concentrations of NO2 to build mixed-effects regression models, including additional variables representing land use features, geographic characteristics, weather, and other predictors. The mixed model was selected by the Elastic Net method. Each model's performance was evaluated using the out-of-sample coefficient of determination (R2) and the square root of mean squared error (RMSE) from ten-fold cross-validation (CV). The mixed model showed a good prediction performance (CV R2: 0.75-0.79, RMSE: 3.9-4.0 ppb). R-LINE outputs improved the overall, spatial, and temporal CV R2 by 10.0%, 18.9% and 7.7% respectively. Given the output of R-LINE is point-based and has a flexible spatial resolution, this hybrid approach allows prediction of daily NO2 at an extremely high spatial resolution such as city blocks.

Evaluation of vehicular pollution levels using line source model for hot spots in Muscat, Oman

A detailed investigation was carried out to assess the concentration of near-road traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) using a dispersion model in Muscat. Two ambient air quality monitoring (AQM) stations were utilized separately at six locations near major roadways (each location for 2 months) to monitor carbon monoxide (CO) and nitrogen oxides (NOx). The study aimed to measure the concentration of near-road TRAP in a city hot spots and develop a validated dispersion model via performance measures. The US Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) Line Source Model was implemented in which the pollutant emission factors were obtained through Comprehensive Modal Emission Model (CMEM) and COmputer Programme to calculate Emissions from Road Transport (COPERT) model. Traffic data of all vehicle categories under normal driving conditions including average vehicle speed limits and local meteorological conditions were included in the modeling study. The analysis of monitoring data showed that hourly (00:00 to 23:00) concentrations of CO were within the US EPA limits, while NOx concentration was exceeded in most locations. Also, the measured pollutant levels were consistent with hourly peak and off-peak traffic volumes. The overall primary statistical performance measures showed that COPERT model was better than CMEM due to the high sensitivity of CMEM to the local meteorological factors. The best fractional bias (0.47 and 0.39), normalized mean square error (0.44 and 0.50), correlation coefficient (0.64 and 0.70), geometric mean bias (1.07 and 1.57), and geometric variance (2.00 and 2.32) were obtained for CO and NOx, respectively. However, the bootstrap 95% CI estimates over normalized mean square error, fractional bias, and correlation coefficient for COPERT and CMEM were found to be statistically significant from 0 in the case of combined model comparison across all the traffic locations for both CO and NOx. In overall, certain roads showed weak performance mainly due to the terrain features and the lack of reliable background concentrations, which need to be considered in the future study.

Connecting Air Quality with Emotional Well-Being and Neighborhood Infrastructure in a US City

Cities in the United States have announced initiatives to become more sustainable, healthy, resilient, livable, and environmentally friendly. However, indicators for measuring all outcomes related to these targets and the synergies between them have not been well defined or studied. One such relationship is the linkage between air quality with emotional well-being (EWB) and neighborhood infrastructure. Here, regulatory monitoring, low-cost sensors (LCSs), and air quality modeling were combined to assess exposures to PM2.5 and traffic-related NOx in 6 Minneapolis, MN, neighborhoods of varying infrastructure parameters (median household income, urban vs suburban, and access to light rail). Residents of the study neighborhoods concurrently took real-time EWB assessments using a smart phone application, Daynamica, to gauge happiness, tiredness, stress, sadness, and pain. Both LCS PM2.5 observations and mobile-source-simulated NOx were calibrated using regulatory observations in Minneapolis. No statistically significant (α = 0.05) PM2.5 differences were found between urban poor and urban middle-income neighborhoods, but average mobile-source NOx was statistically significantly (α = 0.05) higher in the 4 urban neighborhoods than in the 2 suburban neighborhoods. Close proximity to light rail had no observable impact on average observed PM2.5 or simulated mobile-source NOx. Home-based exposure assessments found that PM2.5 was negatively correlated with positive emotions such as happiness and to net affect (the sum of positive and negative emotion scores) and positively correlated (ie, a higher PM2.5 concentration led to higher scores) for negative emotions such as tiredness, stress, sadness, and pain. Simulated mobile-source NOx, assessed from both home-based exposures and in situ exposures, had a near-zero relationship with all EWB indicators. This was attributed to low NOx levels throughout the study neighborhoods and at locations were the EWB-assessed activities took place, both owing to low on-road mobile-source NOx impacts. Although none of the air quality and EWB responses were determined to be statistically significant (α = 0.05), due in part to the relatively small sample size, the results are suggestive of linkages between air quality and a variety of EWB outcomes.

Sensitivity analysis of the near-road dispersion model RLINE - an evaluation at Detroit, Michigan

The development of accurate and appropriate exposure metrics for health effect studies of traffic-related air pollutants (TRAPs) remains challenging and important given that traffic has become the dominant urban exposure source and that exposure estimates can affect estimates of associated health risk. Exposure estimates obtained using dispersion models can overcome many of the limitations of monitoring data, and such estimates have been used in several recent health studies. This study examines the sensitivity of exposure estimates produced by dispersion models to meteorological, emission and traffic allocation inputs, focusing on applications to health studies examining near-road exposures to TRAP. Daily average concentrations of CO and NO_x predicted using the Research Line source model (RLINE) and a spatially and temporally resolved mobile source emissions inventory are compared to ambient measurements at near-road monitoring sites in Detroit, MI, and are used to assess the potential for exposure measurement error in cohort and population-based studies. Sensitivity of exposure estimates is assessed by comparing nominal and alternative model inputs using statistical performance evaluation metrics and three sets of receptors. The analysis shows considerable sensitivity to meteorological inputs; generally the best performance was obtained using data specific to each monitoring site. An updated emission factor database provided some improvement, particularly at near-road sites, while the use of site-specific diurnal traffic allocations did not improve performance compared to simpler default profiles. Overall, this study highlights the need for appropriate inputs, especially meteorological inputs, to dispersion models aimed at estimating near-road concentrations of TRAPs. It also highlights the potential for systematic biases that might affect analyses that use concentration predictions as exposure measures in health studies, e.g., to estimate health impacts.