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Sampa MB, Biswas T, Rahman MS, Aziz NHBA, Hossain MN, Aziz NAA. A Machine Learning Web App to Predict Diabetic Blood Glucose Based on a Basic Noninvasive Health Checkup, Sociodemographic Characteristics, and Dietary Information: Case Study. JMIR Diabetes 2023; 8:e49113. [PMID: 37999944 DOI: 10.2196/49113] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/18/2023] [Revised: 09/28/2023] [Accepted: 10/11/2023] [Indexed: 11/25/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Over the past few decades, diabetes has become a serious public health concern worldwide, particularly in Bangladesh. The advancement of artificial intelligence can be reaped in the prediction of blood glucose levels for better health management. However, the practical validity of machine learning (ML) techniques for predicting health parameters using data from low- and middle-income countries, such as Bangladesh, is very low. Specifically, Bangladesh lacks research using ML techniques to predict blood glucose levels based on basic noninvasive clinical measurements and dietary and sociodemographic information. OBJECTIVE To formulate strategies for public health planning and the control of diabetes, this study aimed to develop a personalized ML model that predicts the blood glucose level of urban corporate workers in Bangladesh. METHODS Based on the basic noninvasive health checkup test results, dietary information, and sociodemographic characteristics of 271 employees of the Bangladeshi Grameen Bank complex, 5 well-known ML models, namely, linear regression, boosted decision tree regression, neural network, decision forest regression, and Bayesian linear regression, were used to predict blood glucose levels. Continuous blood glucose data were used in this study to train the model, which then used the trained data to predict new blood glucose values. RESULTS Boosted decision tree regression demonstrated the greatest predictive performance of all evaluated models (root mean squared error=2.30). This means that, on average, our model's predicted blood glucose level deviated from the actual blood glucose level by around 2.30 mg/dL. The mean blood glucose value of the population studied was 128.02 mg/dL (SD 56.92), indicating a borderline result for the majority of the samples (normal value: 140 mg/dL). This suggests that the individuals should be monitoring their blood glucose levels regularly. CONCLUSIONS This ML-enabled web application for blood glucose prediction helps individuals to self-monitor their health condition. The application was developed with communities in remote areas of low- and middle-income countries, such as Bangladesh, in mind. These areas typically lack health facilities and have an insufficient number of qualified doctors and nurses. The web-based application is a simple, practical, and effective solution that can be adopted by the community. Use of the web application can save money on medical expenses, time, and health management expenses. The created system also aids in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals, particularly in ensuring that everyone in the community enjoys good health and well-being and lowering total morbidity and mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Masuda Begum Sampa
- Center for Engineering Computational Intelligence, Faculty of Engineering and Technology, Multimedia University, Melaka, Malaysia
- Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Faculty of Science, Engineering and Technology, University of Science and Technology Chittagong, Chattogram, Bangladesh
| | - Topu Biswas
- Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Faculty of Science, Engineering and Technology, University of Science and Technology Chittagong, Chattogram, Bangladesh
| | - Md Siddikur Rahman
- Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science, Begum Rokeya University, Rangpur, Bangladesh
| | - Nor Hidayati Binti Abdul Aziz
- Center for Engineering Computational Intelligence, Faculty of Engineering and Technology, Multimedia University, Melaka, Malaysia
| | - Md Nazmul Hossain
- Department of Marketing, Faculty of Business Studies, University of Dhaka, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Nor Azlina Ab Aziz
- Center for Engineering Computational Intelligence, Faculty of Engineering and Technology, Multimedia University, Melaka, Malaysia
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2
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Wen S, Li H, Tao R. A 2-dimensional model framework for blood glucose prediction based on iterative learning control architecture. Med Biol Eng Comput 2023; 61:2593-2606. [PMID: 37395886 DOI: 10.1007/s11517-023-02866-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/07/2023] [Accepted: 06/07/2023] [Indexed: 07/04/2023]
Abstract
The accurate, timely, and personalized prediction for future blood glucose (BG) levels is undoubtedly needed for further advancement of diabetes management technologies. Human inherent circadian rhythm and regular lifestyle resulting in similarity of daily glycemic dynamics play a positive role in the prediction of blood glucose. Inspired by the iterative learning control (ILC) method in the field of automatic control, a 2-dimensional (2-D) model framework is constructed to predict the future blood glucose levels by taking both the short-range information within a day (intra-day) and long-range information between days (inter-day) into account. In this framework, the radial basis function neural network was applied to capture nonlinear relationships in glycemic metabolism, that is, short-range temporal dependence and long-range contemporaneous dependence on previous days. We build models for each patient, and the models were tested on the in silico datasets at various prediction horizons (PHs). The learning model developed in the 2-D framework successfully increases the accuracy and reduces the delay of predictions. This modeling framework provides a new point of view for BG level prediction and contributes to the development of personalized glucose management, such as hypoglycemia warning and glycemic control.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shuang Wen
- College of Information Sciences and Engineering, Northeastern University, No. 11 St. 3, Wenhua Road, Heping District, Shenyang, 110819, People's Republic of China
| | - Hongru Li
- College of Information Sciences and Engineering, Northeastern University, No. 11 St. 3, Wenhua Road, Heping District, Shenyang, 110819, People's Republic of China.
| | - Rui Tao
- College of Information Sciences and Engineering, Northeastern University, No. 11 St. 3, Wenhua Road, Heping District, Shenyang, 110819, People's Republic of China
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3
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Zou Y, Chu Z, Guo J, Liu S, Ma X, Guo J. Minimally invasive electrochemical continuous glucose monitoring sensors: Recent progress and perspective. Biosens Bioelectron 2023; 225:115103. [PMID: 36724658 DOI: 10.1016/j.bios.2023.115103] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/20/2022] [Revised: 12/25/2022] [Accepted: 01/23/2023] [Indexed: 01/26/2023]
Abstract
Diabetes and its complications are seriously threatening the health and well-being of hundreds of millions of people. Glucose levels are essential indicators of the health conditions of diabetics. Over the past decade, concerted efforts in various fields have led to significant advances in glucose monitoring technology. In particular, the rapid development of continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) based on electrochemical sensing principles has great potential to overcome the limitations of self-monitoring blood glucose (SMBG) in continuously tracking glucose trends, evaluating diabetes treatment options, and improving the quality of life of diabetics. However, the applications of minimally invasive electrochemical CGM sensors are still limited owing to the following aspects: i) invasiveness, ii) short lifespan, iii) biocompatibility, and iv) calibration and prediction. In recent years, the performance of minimally invasive electrochemical CGM systems (CGMSs) has been significantly improved owing to breakthrough developments in new materials and key technologies. In this review, we summarize the history of commercial CGMSs, the development of sensing principles, and the research progress of minimally invasive electrochemical CGM sensors in reducing the invasiveness of implanted probes, maintaining enzyme activity, and improving the biocompatibility of the sensor interface. In addition, this review also introduces calibration algorithms and prediction algorithms applied to CGMSs and describes the application of machine learning algorithms for glucose prediction.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuanyuan Zou
- University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, 611731, Chengdu, China
| | - Zhengkang Chu
- School of Sensing Science and Engineering, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai, China
| | - Jiuchuan Guo
- University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, 611731, Chengdu, China; Chongqing Medical University, 400016, Chongqing, China
| | - Shan Liu
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, Sichuan Academy of Medical Sciences and Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital, University of Electronic Science and Technology, Chengdu, 610072, China.
| | - Xing Ma
- School of Materials Science and Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology (Shenzhen), Shenzhen, 518055, China.
| | - Jinhong Guo
- Chongqing Medical University, 400016, Chongqing, China; School of Sensing Science and Engineering, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai, China.
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4
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Della Cioppa A, De Falco I, Koutny T, Scafuri U, Ubl M, Tarantino E. Reducing high-risk glucose forecasting errors by evolving interpretable models for Type 1 diabetes. Appl Soft Comput 2023. [DOI: 10.1016/j.asoc.2023.110012] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/12/2023]
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5
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Blood Glucose Prediction Method Based on Particle Swarm Optimization and Model Fusion. Diagnostics (Basel) 2022; 12:diagnostics12123062. [PMID: 36553069 PMCID: PMC9776993 DOI: 10.3390/diagnostics12123062] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/08/2022] [Revised: 11/15/2022] [Accepted: 11/23/2022] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Blood glucose stability in diabetic patients determines the degree of health, and changes in blood glucose levels are related to the outcome of diabetic patients. Therefore, accurate monitoring of blood glucose has a crucial role in controlling diabetes. Aiming at the problem of high volatility of blood glucose concentration in diabetic patients and the limitations of a single regression prediction model, this paper proposes a method for predicting blood glucose values based on particle swarm optimization and model fusion. First, the Kalman filtering algorithm is used to smooth and reduce the noise of the sensor current signal to reduce the effect of noise on the data. Then, the hyperparameter optimization of Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) models is performed using particle swarm optimization algorithm. Finally, the XGBoost and LightGBM models are used as the base learner and the Bayesian regression model as the meta-learner, and the stacking model fusion method is used to achieve the prediction of blood glucose values. In order to prove the effectiveness and superiority of the method in this paper, we compared the prediction results of stacking fusion model with other 6 models. The experimental results show that the stacking fusion model proposed in this paper can accurately predict blood glucose values, and the average absolute percentage error of blood glucose prediction is 13.01%, and the prediction error of the stacking fusion model is much lower than that of the other six models. Therefore, the proposed diabetes blood glucose prediction method in this paper has superiority.
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Alizamir A, Gholami A, Bahrami N, Ostadhassan M. Refractive Index of Hemoglobin Analysis: A Comparison of Alternating Conditional Expectations and Computational Intelligence Models. ACS OMEGA 2022; 7:33769-33782. [PMID: 36188321 PMCID: PMC9520688 DOI: 10.1021/acsomega.2c00746] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/05/2022] [Accepted: 08/30/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Hemoglobin is one of the most important blood elements, and its optical properties will determine all other optical properties of human blood. Since the refractive index (RI) of hemoglobin plays a vital role as a non-invasive indicator of some illnesses, accurate calculation of it would be of great importance. Moreover, measurement of the RI of hemoglobin in the laboratory is time-consuming and expensive; thus, developing a smart approach to estimate this parameter is necessary. In this research, four viable strategies were used to make a quantitative correlation between the RI of hemoglobin and its influencing parameters including the concentration, wavelength, and temperature. First, alternating conditional expectations (ACE), a statistical approach, was employed to generate a correlation to predict the RI of hemoglobin. Then, three different optimized intelligent techniques-optimized neural network (ONN), optimized fuzzy inference system (OFIS), and optimized support vector regression (OSVR)-were used to model the RI. A bat-inspired (BA) algorithm was embedded in the formulation of intelligent models to obtain the optimal values of weights and biases of an artificial neural network, membership functions of the fuzzy inference system, and free parameters of support vector regression. The coefficient of determination, root-mean-square error, average absolute relative error, and symmetric mean absolute percentage error for each of the ACE, ONN, OFIS, and OSVR were found as the measure of each model's accuracy. Results showed that ACE and optimized models (ONN, OFIS, and OSVR) have promising results in the estimation of hemoglobin's RI. Collectively, ACE outperformed ONN, OFIS, and OSVR, while sensitivity analysis indicated that the concentration, wavelength, and, lastly, temperature would have the highest impact on the RI.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aida Alizamir
- Department
of Pathology, School of Medicine, Hamadan
University of Medical Science, Hamadan 6517838738, Iran
| | - Amin Gholami
- Reservoir
Division, Iranian Offshore Oil Company, Tehran 1966653943, Iran
| | - Nader Bahrami
- Financial
Transaction Department, Carsome Company, Petaling Jaya, Selangor 47800, Malaysia
| | - Mehdi Ostadhassan
- Department
of Geology, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad 9177948974, Iran
- Institute
of Geosciences, Marine and Land Geomechanics and Geotectonics, Christian-Albrechts-Universität, Kiel 24118, Germany
- Key
Laboratory of Continental Shale Hydrocarbon Accumulation and Efficient
Development, Ministry of Education, Northeast
Petroleum University, Daqing 163318, China
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7
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Kalita D, Mirza KB. Glucose Prediction using Wide-Deep LSTM Network for Accurate Insulin Dosing in Artificial Pancreas. ANNUAL INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE OF THE IEEE ENGINEERING IN MEDICINE AND BIOLOGY SOCIETY. IEEE ENGINEERING IN MEDICINE AND BIOLOGY SOCIETY. ANNUAL INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE 2022; 2022:4426-4429. [PMID: 36086315 DOI: 10.1109/embc48229.2022.9870983] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Closed-loop diabetes management has been shown to indicate improved glycaemic control and better compliance over open loop diabetes management. Currently, commercially available diabetes management devices rely on continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) sensors which monitor glucose levels from the interstitial fluid (ISF). As there exists a physiological delay between the blood glucose levels compared to the ISF glucose levels, it is crucial to predict or forecast glucose levels, in order to prevent hyperglycaemic events due to delayed insulin dosing. Accuracy of the forecast also needs to be optimum such that overdosing on insulin does not lead to hypoglycaemia. In this paper, we describe a novel Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) network which follows a wide and deep approach for different features to deliver an accurate glucose prediction output. It achieved a Mean Absolute Relative Difference (MARD) of 2.61 and Root Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 5.04. Clinical relevance- This work is relevant for closed-loop diabetes management devices, which are currently being used to manage Type 1 Diabetes (T1D).
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8
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Alhaddad AY, Aly H, Gad H, Al-Ali A, Sadasivuni KK, Cabibihan JJ, Malik RA. Sense and Learn: Recent Advances in Wearable Sensing and Machine Learning for Blood Glucose Monitoring and Trend-Detection. Front Bioeng Biotechnol 2022; 10:876672. [PMID: 35646863 PMCID: PMC9135106 DOI: 10.3389/fbioe.2022.876672] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/15/2022] [Accepted: 04/12/2022] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Diabetes mellitus is characterized by elevated blood glucose levels, however patients with diabetes may also develop hypoglycemia due to treatment. There is an increasing demand for non-invasive blood glucose monitoring and trends detection amongst people with diabetes and healthy individuals, especially athletes. Wearable devices and non-invasive sensors for blood glucose monitoring have witnessed considerable advances. This review is an update on recent contributions utilizing novel sensing technologies over the past five years which include electrocardiogram, electromagnetic, bioimpedance, photoplethysmography, and acceleration measures as well as bodily fluid glucose sensors to monitor glucose and trend detection. We also review methods that use machine learning algorithms to predict blood glucose trends, especially for high risk events such as hypoglycemia. Convolutional and recurrent neural networks, support vector machines, and decision trees are examples of such machine learning algorithms. Finally, we address the key limitations and challenges of these studies and provide recommendations for future work.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ahmad Yaser Alhaddad
- Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Hussein Aly
- KINDI Center for Computing Research, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Hoda Gad
- Weill Cornell Medicine - Qatar, Doha, Qatar
| | - Abdulaziz Al-Ali
- KINDI Center for Computing Research, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | | | - John-John Cabibihan
- Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
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9
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Optimization and Evaluation of an Intelligent Short-Term Blood Glucose Prediction Model Based on Noninvasive Monitoring and Deep Learning Techniques. JOURNAL OF HEALTHCARE ENGINEERING 2022; 2022:8956850. [PMID: 35449869 PMCID: PMC9017442 DOI: 10.1155/2022/8956850] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/14/2022] [Accepted: 03/18/2022] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
Continuous noninvasive blood glucose monitoring and estimation management by using photoplethysmography (PPG) technology always have a series of problems, such as substantial time variability, inaccuracy, and complex nonlinearity. This paper proposes a blood glucose (BG) prediction model for more precise prediction based on BG series decomposition by complete aggregation empirical mode decomposition based on adaptive white noise (CEEMDAN) and the gated recurrent unit (GRU) that is optimized by improved bacterial foraging optimization (IBFO). Hierarchical clustering technology recombines the decomposed BG series according to their sample entropy and the correlations with the original BG trends. Dynamic BG trends are regressed separately for each recombined BG series by the GRU model to realize the more precise estimations, which are optimized by IBFO for its structure and superparameters. Through experiments, the optimized and basic LSTM, RNN, and support vector regression (SVR) are compared to evaluate the performance of the proposed model. The experimental results indicate that the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the 15-min IBFO-GRU prediction is improved on average by about 13.1% and 18.4%, respectively, compared with those of the RNN and LSTM optimized by IBFO. Meanwhile, the proposed model improved the Clarke error grid results by about 2.6% and 5.0% compared with those of the IBFO-LSTM and IBFO-RNN in 30-min prediction and by 4.1% and 6.6% in 15-min ahead forecast, respectively. The evaluation outcomes of our proposed CEEMDAN-IBFO-GRU model have high accuracy and adaptability and can effectively provide early intervention control of the occurrence of hyperglycemic complications.
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11
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Nemat H, Khadem H, Eissa MR, Elliott J, Benaissa M. Blood Glucose Level Prediction: Advanced Deep-Ensemble Learning Approach. IEEE J Biomed Health Inform 2022; 26:2758-2769. [PMID: 35077372 DOI: 10.1109/jbhi.2022.3144870] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
Optimal and sustainable control of blood glucose levels (BGLs) is the aim of type-1 diabetes management. The automated prediction of BGL using machine learning (ML) algorithms is considered as a promising tool that can support this aim. In this context, this paper proposes new advanced ML architectures to predict BGL leveraging deep learning and ensemble learning. The deep-ensemble models are developed with novel meta-learning approaches, where the feasibility of changing the dimension of a univariate time series forecasting task is investigated. The models are evaluated regression-wise and clinical-wise. The performance of the proposed ensemble models are compared with benchmark non-ensemble models. The results show the superior performance of the developed ensemble models over developed non-ensemble benchmark models and also show the efficacy of the proposed meta-learning approaches.
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12
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Abd-Al-Sattar Sadiq Laylani L, Coran ANN, Mahmood ZS. Foretelling Diabetic Disease Using a Machine Learning Algorithms. 2022 INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE FOR ADVANCEMENT IN TECHNOLOGY (ICONAT) 2022. [DOI: 10.1109/iconat53423.2022.9726070] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 09/01/2023]
Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Zuhair Shakor Mahmood
- Kirkuk Technical Institute Northern Technical University,Electronic Deprtment,Kirkuk,Iraq
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13
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Zaidi SMA, Chandola V, Ibrahim M, Romanski B, Mastrandrea LD, Singh T. Multi-step ahead predictive model for blood glucose concentrations of type-1 diabetic patients. Sci Rep 2021; 11:24332. [PMID: 34934084 PMCID: PMC8692478 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-03341-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/10/2021] [Accepted: 11/09/2021] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
Continuous monitoring of blood glucose (BG) levels is a key aspect of diabetes management. Patients with Type-1 diabetes (T1D) require an effective tool to monitor these levels in order to make appropriate decisions regarding insulin administration and food intake to keep BG levels in target range. Effectively and accurately predicting future BG levels at multi-time steps ahead benefits a patient with diabetes by helping them decrease the risks of extremes in BG including hypo- and hyperglycemia. In this study, we present a novel multi-component deep learning model BG-Predict that predicts the BG levels in a multi-step look ahead fashion. The model is evaluated both quantitatively and qualitatively on actual blood glucose data for 97 patients. For the prediction horizon (PH) of 30 mins, the average values for root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and normalized mean squared error (NRMSE) are [Formula: see text] mg/dL, 16.77 ± 4.87 mg/dL, [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] respectively. When Clarke and Parkes error grid analyses were performed comparing predicted BG with actual BG, the results showed average percentage of points in Zone A of [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] respectively. We offer this tool as a mechanism to enhance the predictive capabilities of algorithms for patients with T1D.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Varun Chandola
- Computer Science and Engineering, University at Buffalo-SUNY, Buffalo, 14260, USA
| | - Muhanned Ibrahim
- Computer Science and Engineering, University at Buffalo-SUNY, Buffalo, 14260, USA
| | - Bianca Romanski
- Medical Information Technology, RWTH Aachen University, Pauwelsstr. 20, 52074, Aachen, Germany
| | - Lucy D Mastrandrea
- Division of Pediatric Endocrinology, University at Buffalo-SUNY, Buffalo, 14203, USA
| | - Tarunraj Singh
- Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University at Buffalo-SUNY, Buffalo, 14260, USA
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GLYFE: review and benchmark of personalized glucose predictive models in type 1 diabetes. Med Biol Eng Comput 2021; 60:1-17. [PMID: 34751904 DOI: 10.1007/s11517-021-02437-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/02/2021] [Accepted: 08/20/2021] [Indexed: 10/19/2022]
Abstract
Due to the sensitive nature of diabetes-related data, preventing them from being easily shared between studies, and the wide discrepancies in their data processing pipeline, progress in the field of glucose prediction is hard to assess. To address this issue, we introduce GLYFE (GLYcemia Forecasting Evaluation), a benchmark of machine learning-based glucose predictive models. We present the accuracy and clinical acceptability of nine different models coming from the literature, from standard autoregressive to more complex neural network-based models. These results are obtained on two different datasets, namely UVA/Padova Type 1 Diabetes Metabolic Simulator (T1DMS) and Ohio Type-1 Diabetes Mellitus (OhioT1DM), featuring artificial and real type 1 diabetic patients respectively. By providing extensive details about the data flow as well as by providing the whole source code of the benchmarking process, we ensure the reproducibility of the results and the usability of the benchmark by the community. Those results serve as a basis of comparison for future studies. In a field where data are hard to obtain, and where the comparison of results from different studies is often irrelevant, GLYFE gives the opportunity of gathering researchers around a standardized common environment.
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Sun X, Rashid M, Hobbs N, Askari MR, Brandt R, Shahidehpour A, Cinar A. Prior Informed Regularization of Recursively Updated Latent-Variables-Based Models with Missing Observations. CONTROL ENGINEERING PRACTICE 2021; 116:104933. [PMID: 34539101 PMCID: PMC8443145 DOI: 10.1016/j.conengprac.2021.104933] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Many data-driven modeling techniques identify locally valid, linear representations of time-varying or nonlinear systems, and thus the model parameters must be adaptively updated as the operating conditions of the system vary, though the model identification typically does not consider prior knowledge. In this work, we propose a new regularized partial least squares (rPLS) algorithm that incorporates prior knowledge in the model identification and can handle missing data in the independent covariates. This latent variable (LV) based modeling technique consists of three steps. First, a LV-based model is developed on the historical time series data. In the second step, the missing observations in the new incomplete data sample are estimated. Finally, the future values of the outputs are predicted as a linear combination of estimated scores and loadings. The model is recursively updated as new data are obtained from the system. The performance of the proposed rPLS and rPLS with exogenous inputs (rPLSX) algorithms are evaluated by modeling variations in glucose concentration (GC) of people with Type 1 diabetes (T1D) in response to meals and physical activities for prediction windows up to one hour, or 12 sampling instances, into the future. The proposed rPLS family of GC prediction models are evaluated with both in-silico and clinical experiment data and compared with the performance of recursive time series and kernel-based models. The root mean squared error (RMSE) with simulated subjects in the multivariable T1D simulator where physical activity effects are incorporated in GC variations are 2.52 and 5.81 mg/dL for 30 and 60 mins ahead predictions (respectively) when information for all meals and physical activities are used, increasing to 2.70 and 6.54 mg/dL (respectively) when meals and activities occurred, but the information is with-held from the modeling algorithms. The RMSE is 10.45 and 14.48 mg/dL for clinical study with prediction horizons of 30 and 60 mins, respectively. The low RMSE values demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed rPLS approach compared to the conventional recursive modeling algorithms.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaoyu Sun
- Department of Biomedical Engineering, Illinois Institute of Technology, Chicago, IL 60616 USA
| | - Mudassir Rashid
- Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, Illinois Institute of Technology, Chicago, IL 60616 USA
| | - Nicole Hobbs
- Department of Biomedical Engineering, Illinois Institute of Technology, Chicago, IL 60616 USA
| | - Mohammad Reza Askari
- Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, Illinois Institute of Technology, Chicago, IL 60616 USA
| | - Rachel Brandt
- Department of Biomedical Engineering, Illinois Institute of Technology, Chicago, IL 60616 USA
| | - Andrew Shahidehpour
- Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, Illinois Institute of Technology, Chicago, IL 60616 USA
| | - Ali Cinar
- Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, Illinois Institute of Technology, Chicago, IL 60616 USA
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16
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Machine Learning Based Diabetes Classification and Prediction for Healthcare Applications. JOURNAL OF HEALTHCARE ENGINEERING 2021; 2021:9930985. [PMID: 34631003 PMCID: PMC8500744 DOI: 10.1155/2021/9930985] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/26/2021] [Revised: 05/17/2021] [Accepted: 08/16/2021] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
The remarkable advancements in biotechnology and public healthcare infrastructures have led to a momentous production of critical and sensitive healthcare data. By applying intelligent data analysis techniques, many interesting patterns are identified for the early and onset detection and prevention of several fatal diseases. Diabetes mellitus is an extremely life-threatening disease because it contributes to other lethal diseases, i.e., heart, kidney, and nerve damage. In this paper, a machine learning based approach has been proposed for the classification, early-stage identification, and prediction of diabetes. Furthermore, it also presents an IoT-based hypothetical diabetes monitoring system for a healthy and affected person to monitor his blood glucose (BG) level. For diabetes classification, three different classifiers have been employed, i.e., random forest (RF), multilayer perceptron (MLP), and logistic regression (LR). For predictive analysis, we have employed long short-term memory (LSTM), moving averages (MA), and linear regression (LR). For experimental evaluation, a benchmark PIMA Indian Diabetes dataset is used. During the analysis, it is observed that MLP outperforms other classifiers with 86.08% of accuracy and LSTM improves the significant prediction with 87.26% accuracy of diabetes. Moreover, a comparative analysis of the proposed approach is also performed with existing state-of-the-art techniques, demonstrating the adaptability of the proposed approach in many public healthcare applications.
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A predictive model incorporating the change detection and Winsorization methods for alerting hypoglycemia and hyperglycemia. Med Biol Eng Comput 2021; 59:2311-2324. [PMID: 34591245 DOI: 10.1007/s11517-021-02433-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/13/2021] [Accepted: 08/18/2021] [Indexed: 10/20/2022]
Abstract
This paper focuses on establishing an effective predictive model to quickly and accurately alert hypoglycemia and hyperglycemia for helping control blood glucose levels of people with diabetes. In general, a good predictive model is established on the features of data. Inspired by this, we first analyze the characteristics of continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) data by the equality of variances test and outlier detection, which show time-varying fluctuations and jump points in CGM data. Therefore, we incorporate the change detection method and the Winsorization method into the predictive model based on the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model and the recursive least squares (RLS) method to fit the above characteristics. To the best of our knowledge, the proposed method is the first attempt to give a solution for matching the time-varying fluctuations and jump points of CGM data simultaneously. A case study using CGM data is given to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method under 30-min-ahead prediction. The results show that the proposed method can improve the true alarm ratio of hypoglycemia and hyperglycemia from 0.7983 to 0.8783, and lengthen the average advance detection time of hypoglycemia and hyperglycemia from 19.77 to 22.64 min.
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Diouri O, Cigler M, Vettoretti M, Mader JK, Choudhary P, Renard E. Hypoglycaemia detection and prediction techniques: A systematic review on the latest developments. Diabetes Metab Res Rev 2021; 37:e3449. [PMID: 33763974 PMCID: PMC8519027 DOI: 10.1002/dmrr.3449] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/08/2020] [Revised: 12/08/2020] [Accepted: 01/28/2021] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
The main objective of diabetes control is to correct hyperglycaemia while avoiding hypoglycaemia, especially in insulin-treated patients. Fear of hypoglycaemia is a hurdle to effective correction of hyperglycaemia because it promotes under-dosing of insulin. Strategies to minimise hypoglycaemia include education and training for improved hypoglycaemia awareness and the development of technologies to allow their early detection and thus minimise their occurrence. Patients with impaired hypoglycaemia awareness would benefit the most from these technologies. The purpose of this systematic review is to review currently available or in-development technologies that support detection of hypoglycaemia or hypoglycaemia risk, and identify gaps in the research. Nanomaterial use in sensors is a promising strategy to increase the accuracy of continuous glucose monitoring devices for low glucose values. Hypoglycaemia is associated with changes on vital signs, so electrocardiogram and encephalogram could also be used to detect hypoglycaemia. Accuracy improvements through multivariable measures can make already marketed galvanic skin response devices a good noninvasive alternative. Breath volatile organic compounds can be detected by dogs and devices and alert patients at hypoglycaemia onset, while near-infrared spectroscopy can also be used as a hypoglycaemia alarms. Finally, one of the main directions of research are deep learning algorithms to analyse continuous glucose monitoring data and provide earlier and more accurate prediction of hypoglycaemia. Current developments for early identification of hypoglycaemia risk combine improvements of available 'needle-type' enzymatic glucose sensors and noninvasive alternatives. Patient usability will be essential to demonstrate to allow their implementation for daily use in diabetes management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Omar Diouri
- Department of Endocrinology, Diabetes, NutritionMontpellier University HospitalMontpellierFrance
- Department of PhysiologyInstitute of Functional Genomics, CNRS, INSERMUniversity of MontpellierMontpellierFrance
| | - Monika Cigler
- Division of Endocrinology and DiabetologyDepartment of Internal MedicineMedical University of GrazGrazAustria
| | | | - Julia K. Mader
- Division of Endocrinology and DiabetologyDepartment of Internal MedicineMedical University of GrazGrazAustria
| | - Pratik Choudhary
- Department of Diabetes and Nutritional SciencesKing's College LondonLondonUK
- Diabetes Research CentreUniversity of LeicesterLeicesterUK
| | - Eric Renard
- Department of Endocrinology, Diabetes, NutritionMontpellier University HospitalMontpellierFrance
- Department of PhysiologyInstitute of Functional Genomics, CNRS, INSERMUniversity of MontpellierMontpellierFrance
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19
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An absolute magnitude deviation of HRV for the prediction of prediabetes with combined artificial neural network and regression tree methods. Artif Intell Rev 2021. [DOI: 10.1007/s10462-021-10040-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/20/2022]
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20
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Felizardo V, Garcia NM, Pombo N, Megdiche I. Data-based algorithms and models using diabetics real data for blood glucose and hypoglycaemia prediction - A systematic literature review. Artif Intell Med 2021; 118:102120. [PMID: 34412843 DOI: 10.1016/j.artmed.2021.102120] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/11/2020] [Revised: 05/24/2021] [Accepted: 05/25/2021] [Indexed: 10/21/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIM Hypoglycaemia prediction play an important role in diabetes management being able to reduce the number of dangerous situations. Thus, it is relevant to present a systematic review on the currently available prediction algorithms and models for hypoglycaemia (or hypoglycemia in US English) prediction. METHODS This study aims to systematically review the literature on data-based algorithms and models using diabetics real data for hypoglycaemia prediction. Five electronic databases were screened for studies published from January 2014 to June 2020: ScienceDirect, IEEE Xplore, ACM Digital Library, SCOPUS, and PubMed. RESULTS Sixty-three eligible studies were retrieved that met the inclusion criteria. The review identifies the current trend in this topic: most of the studies perform short-term predictions (82.5%). Also, the review pinpoints the inputs and shows that information fusion is relevant for hypoglycaemia prediction. Regarding data-based models (80.9%) and hybrid models (19.1%) different predictive techniques are used: Artificial neural network (22.2%), ensemble learning (27.0%), supervised learning (20.6%), statistic/probabilistic (7.9%), autoregressive (7.9%), evolutionary (6.4%), deep learning (4.8%) and adaptative filter (3.2%). Artificial Neural networks and hybrid models show better results. CONCLUSIONS The data-based models for blood glucose and hypoglycaemia prediction should be able to provide a good balance between the applicability and performance, integrating complementary data from different sources or from different models. This review identifies trends and possible opportunities for research in this topic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Virginie Felizardo
- Instituto de Telecomunicações, Covilhã, Portugal; Universidade da Beira Interior, Covilhã, Portugal.
| | - Nuno M Garcia
- Instituto de Telecomunicações, Covilhã, Portugal; Universidade da Beira Interior, Covilhã, Portugal.
| | - Nuno Pombo
- Instituto de Telecomunicações, Covilhã, Portugal; Universidade da Beira Interior, Covilhã, Portugal.
| | - Imen Megdiche
- IRIT, Institut de Recherche en Informatique de Toulouse, Toulouse University, France.
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21
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Borle NC, Ryan EA, Greiner R. The challenge of predicting blood glucose concentration changes in patients with type I diabetes. Health Informatics J 2021; 27:1460458220977584. [PMID: 33504254 DOI: 10.1177/1460458220977584] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Patients with Type I Diabetes (T1D) must take insulin injections to prevent the serious long term effects of hyperglycemia. They must also be careful not to inject too much insulin because this could induce (potentially fatal) hypoglycemia. Patients therefore follow a "regimen" that determines how much insulin to inject at each time, based on various measurements. We can produce an effective regimen if we can accurately predict a patient's future blood glucose (BG) values from his/her current features. This study explores the challenges of predicting future BG by applying a number of machine learning algorithms, as well as various data preprocessing variations (corresponding to 312 [learner, preprocessed-dataset] combinations), to a new T1D dataset that contains 29,601 entries from 47 different patients. Our most accurate predictor, a weighted ensemble of two Gaussian Process Regression models, achieved a (cross-validation) errL1 loss of 2.7 mmol/L (48.65 mg/dl). This result was unexpectedly poor given that one can obtain an errL1 of 2.9 mmol/L (52.43 mg/dl) using the naive approach of simply predicting the patient's average BG. These results suggest that the diabetes diary data that is typically collected may be insufficient to produce accurate BG prediction models; additional data may be necessary to build accurate BG prediction models over hours.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Edmond A Ryan
- University of Alberta, Canada.,Alberta Diabetes Institute, Canada
| | - Russell Greiner
- University of Alberta, Canada.,Alberta Machine Intelligence Institute, Canada
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22
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Zhang Y, Sun J, Liu L, Qiao H. A review of biosensor technology and algorithms for glucose monitoring. J Diabetes Complications 2021; 35:107929. [PMID: 33902999 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdiacomp.2021.107929] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/17/2021] [Revised: 03/30/2021] [Accepted: 04/11/2021] [Indexed: 12/24/2022]
Abstract
Diabetes mellitus (DM) has become a serious illness in the whole world. Until now, there is no effective cure for patients with DM. It is well known that the glucose level is one key factor to determine the progress of DM. It is also an important reference to carry out the accurate and timely treatment for patients with DM. In this article, the related biosensors technology that can be utilized to identify and predict glucose level are reviewed in detail, including the algorithms that can help to achieve numerical value of glucose level. Firstly, the biosensor technology based on the physiological fluids are illustrated, including blood, sweat, interstitial fluid, ocular fluid, and other available fluids. Secondly, the algorithms for achieving numerical value of glucose level are investigated, including the physiological model-based method and the machine learning-based method. Finally, the future development trend and challenges of glucose level monitoring are given and the conclusions are drawn.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yaguang Zhang
- The Second Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University, Harbin, Heilongjiang 150086, China
| | - Jingxue Sun
- The Second Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University, Harbin, Heilongjiang 150086, China
| | - Liansheng Liu
- School of Electronics and Information Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150080, China
| | - Hong Qiao
- The Second Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University, Harbin, Heilongjiang 150086, China.
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Dudukcu HV, Taskiran M, Yildirim T. Blood glucose prediction with deep neural networks using weighted decision level fusion. Biocybern Biomed Eng 2021. [DOI: 10.1016/j.bbe.2021.08.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/31/2022]
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24
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Cichosz SL, Jensen MH, Hejlesen O. Short-term prediction of future continuous glucose monitoring readings in type 1 diabetes: Development and validation of a neural network regression model. Int J Med Inform 2021; 151:104472. [PMID: 33932763 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijmedinf.2021.104472] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/14/2020] [Revised: 04/07/2021] [Accepted: 04/22/2021] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE CGM systems are still subject to a time-delay, which especially during rapid changes causes clinically significant difference between the CGM and the actual BG level. This study had the aim of exploring the potential of developing and validating a model for prediction of future CGM measurements in order to overcome the time-delay. METHODS An artificial neural network regression (NN) approach were used to predict CGM values with a lead-time of 15 min. The NN were trained and internally validated on 23 million minutes of CGM and externally validated on 2 million minutes of CGM. The validation included data from 278 type 1 diabetes patients using three different CGM sensors. The NN performance were compared with three alternative methods, linear extrapolation, spline extrapolation and last observation carried forward. RESULTS The internal validation yielded a RMSE of 9.1 mg/dL, a MARD of 4.2 % and 99.9 % of predictions were in the A + B zone of the consensus error grid. The external validation yielded a RMSE of 5.9-11.3 mg/dL, a MARD of 3.2-5.4 % and 99.9-100 % of predictions were in the A + B zone of the consensus error grid. The NN performed better on all parameters compared to the two alternative methods. CONCLUSIONS We proposed and validated a NN glucose prediction model that is potential simple to use and implement. The model only needs input from a CGM system in order to facilitate glucose prediction with a lead time of 15 min. The approach yielded good results for both internal and external validation.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Morten Hasselstrøm Jensen
- Department of Health Science and Technology, Aalborg University, Denmark; Steno Diabetes Center North Denmark, Aalborg University Hospital, Aalborg, Denmark
| | - Ole Hejlesen
- Department of Health Science and Technology, Aalborg University, Denmark
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25
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Blood Glucose Level Prediction of Diabetic Type 1 Patients Using Nonlinear Autoregressive Neural Networks. JOURNAL OF HEALTHCARE ENGINEERING 2021. [DOI: 10.1155/2021/6611091] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
Diabetes type 1 is a chronic disease which is increasing at an alarming rate throughout the world. Studies reveal that the complications associated with diabetes can be reduced by proper management of the disease by continuously monitoring and forecasting the blood glucose level of patients. Objective. The prior prediction of blood glucose level is necessary to overcome the lag time for insulin absorption in diabetic type 1 patients. Method. In this research, we use continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) data to predict future blood glucose level using the previous data points. We compare two neural network techniques. We apply the optimal feedforward neural network and then propose optimal nonlinear autoregressive neural networks for blood glucose prediction 15–30 minutes earlier for diabetic type 1 patients. We validate the proposed model with 2 virtual subjects using their 24-hour blood glucose level data. These two case studies have been compiled from AIDA, i.e., the freeware mathematical diabetes simulator. Results. In the prediction horizon (PH) of 15 and 30 minutes, improved results have been shown for minimal inputs for blood glucose level of a particular subject. Root mean square error (RMSE) is used for performance calculation. For the optimal feedforward neural network, the RMSE is 0.9984 and 3.78 ml/dl, and for the optimal nonlinear autoregressive neural network, it reduces the RMSE to 0.60 and 1.12 ml/dl for 15 min and 30 min prediction horizons, respectively, for subject 1. Similarly, for subject 2 for the optimal feedforward neural network, RMSE is 1.43 and 3.51 ml/dl which is improved using the optimal autoregressive neural network to 0.7911 and 1.6756 ml/dl for 15 min and 30 min prediction horizons, respectively. Validation. We further validate our proposed model using UCI machine learning datasets (Abalone and Servo), and it shows improved results on that as well. Conclusion and Future Work. The proposed optimal nonlinear autoregressive neural network model performs better than the feedforward neural network model for these time series data. In the future, we intend to investigate a greater collection of AIDA scenarios and data that are real and influence other factors of BGLs.
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Kim DY, Choi DS, Kim J, Chun SW, Gil HW, Cho NJ, Kang AR, Woo J. Developing an Individual Glucose Prediction Model Using Recurrent Neural Network. SENSORS (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2020; 20:E6460. [PMID: 33198170 PMCID: PMC7696446 DOI: 10.3390/s20226460] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/08/2020] [Revised: 11/08/2020] [Accepted: 11/10/2020] [Indexed: 12/24/2022]
Abstract
In this study, we propose a personalized glucose prediction model using deep learning for hospitalized patients who experience Type-2 diabetes. We aim for our model to assist the medical personnel who check the blood glucose and control the amount of insulin doses. Herein, we employed a deep learning algorithm, especially a recurrent neural network (RNN), that consists of a sequence processing layer and a classification layer for the glucose prediction. We tested a simple RNN, gated recurrent unit (GRU), and long-short term memory (LSTM) and varied the architectures to determine the one with the best performance. For that, we collected data for a week using a continuous glucose monitoring device. Type-2 inpatients are usually experiencing bad health conditions and have a high variability of glucose level. However, there are few studies on the Type-2 glucose prediction model while many studies performed on Type-1 glucose prediction. This work has a contribution in that the proposed model exhibits a comparative performance to previous works on Type-1 patients. For 20 in-hospital patients, we achieved an average root mean squared error (RMSE) of 21.5 and an Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 11.1%. The GRU with a single RNN layer and two dense layers was found to be sufficient to predict the glucose level. Moreover, to build a personalized model, at most, 50% of data are required for training.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dae-Yeon Kim
- Department of Internal Medicine, Soonchunhyang University Cheonan Hospital, Cheonan 31151, Korea; (D.-Y.K.); (S.W.C.); (H.-W.G.); (N.-J.C.)
| | - Dong-Sik Choi
- Department of Medical Science, Soonchunhyang University, Asan 31538, Korea;
| | - Jaeyun Kim
- Department of Big Data Engineering, Soonchunhyang University, Asan 31538, Korea;
| | - Sung Wan Chun
- Department of Internal Medicine, Soonchunhyang University Cheonan Hospital, Cheonan 31151, Korea; (D.-Y.K.); (S.W.C.); (H.-W.G.); (N.-J.C.)
| | - Hyo-Wook Gil
- Department of Internal Medicine, Soonchunhyang University Cheonan Hospital, Cheonan 31151, Korea; (D.-Y.K.); (S.W.C.); (H.-W.G.); (N.-J.C.)
| | - Nam-Jun Cho
- Department of Internal Medicine, Soonchunhyang University Cheonan Hospital, Cheonan 31151, Korea; (D.-Y.K.); (S.W.C.); (H.-W.G.); (N.-J.C.)
| | - Ah Reum Kang
- SCH Convergence Science Institute, Soonchunhyang University, Asan 31538, Korea
| | - Jiyoung Woo
- Department of Big Data Engineering, Soonchunhyang University, Asan 31538, Korea;
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27
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Sampa MB, Hossain MN, Hoque MR, Islam R, Yokota F, Nishikitani M, Ahmed A. Blood Uric Acid Prediction With Machine Learning: Model Development and Performance Comparison. JMIR Med Inform 2020; 8:e18331. [PMID: 33030442 PMCID: PMC7582147 DOI: 10.2196/18331] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/20/2020] [Revised: 07/16/2020] [Accepted: 08/10/2020] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Uric acid is associated with noncommunicable diseases such as cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, coronary artery disease, stroke, diabetes, metabolic syndrome, vascular dementia, and hypertension. Therefore, uric acid is considered to be a risk factor for the development of noncommunicable diseases. Most studies on uric acid have been performed in developed countries, and the application of machine-learning approaches in uric acid prediction in developing countries is rare. Different machine-learning algorithms will work differently on different types of data in various diseases; therefore, a different investigation is needed for different types of data to identify the most accurate algorithms. Specifically, no study has yet focused on the urban corporate population in Bangladesh, despite the high risk of developing noncommunicable diseases for this population. Objective The aim of this study was to develop a model for predicting blood uric acid values based on basic health checkup test results, dietary information, and sociodemographic characteristics using machine-learning algorithms. The prediction of health checkup test measurements can be very helpful to reduce health management costs. Methods Various machine-learning approaches were used in this study because clinical input data are not completely independent and exhibit complex interactions. Conventional statistical models have limitations to consider these complex interactions, whereas machine learning can consider all possible interactions among input data. We used boosted decision tree regression, decision forest regression, Bayesian linear regression, and linear regression to predict personalized blood uric acid based on basic health checkup test results, dietary information, and sociodemographic characteristics. We evaluated the performance of these five widely used machine-learning models using data collected from 271 employees in the Grameen Bank complex of Dhaka, Bangladesh. Results The mean uric acid level was 6.63 mg/dL, indicating a borderline result for the majority of the sample (normal range <7.0 mg/dL). Therefore, these individuals should be monitoring their uric acid regularly. The boosted decision tree regression model showed the best performance among the models tested based on the root mean squared error of 0.03, which is also better than that of any previously reported model. Conclusions A uric acid prediction model was developed based on personal characteristics, dietary information, and some basic health checkup measurements. This model will be useful for improving awareness among high-risk individuals and populations, which can help to save medical costs. A future study could include additional features (eg, work stress, daily physical activity, alcohol intake, eating red meat) in improving prediction.
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Affiliation(s)
- Masuda Begum Sampa
- Department of Advanced Information Technology, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan
| | - Md Nazmul Hossain
- Department of Marketing, Faculty of Business Studies, University of Dhaka, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Md Rakibul Hoque
- School of Business, Emporia State University, Kansas, KS, United States
| | - Rafiqul Islam
- Medical Information Center, Kyushu University Hospital, Fukuoka, Japan
| | - Fumihiko Yokota
- Institute of Decision Science for a Sustainable Society, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan
| | | | - Ashir Ahmed
- Department of Advanced Information Technology, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan
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28
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After-meal blood glucose level prediction using an absorption model for neural network training. Comput Biol Med 2020; 125:103956. [DOI: 10.1016/j.compbiomed.2020.103956] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/29/2020] [Revised: 07/31/2020] [Accepted: 07/31/2020] [Indexed: 12/31/2022]
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29
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Alfian G, Syafrudin M, Anshari M, Benes F, Atmaji FTD, Fahrurrozi I, Hidayatullah AF, Rhee J. Blood glucose prediction model for type 1 diabetes based on artificial neural network with time-domain features. Biocybern Biomed Eng 2020. [DOI: 10.1016/j.bbe.2020.10.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/23/2022]
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30
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Nizam Ozogur H, Ozogur G, Orman Z. Blood glucose level prediction for diabetes based on modified fuzzy time series and particle swarm optimization. Comput Intell 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/coin.12396] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/25/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Hatice Nizam Ozogur
- Department of Computer Engineering Istanbul University‐Cerrahpasa Istanbul Turkey
| | - Gokhan Ozogur
- R&D Software Design Department, Arcelik A.S. Istanbul Turkey
| | - Zeynep Orman
- Department of Computer Engineering Istanbul University‐Cerrahpasa Istanbul Turkey
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Orozco-López O, Rodríguez-Herrero A, Castañeda CE, García-Sáez G, Elena Hernando M. Method to generate a large cohort in-silico for type 1 diabetes. COMPUTER METHODS AND PROGRAMS IN BIOMEDICINE 2020; 193:105523. [PMID: 32442845 DOI: 10.1016/j.cmpb.2020.105523] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/03/2019] [Revised: 04/06/2020] [Accepted: 04/25/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE In the last decade, several technological solutions have been proposed as artificial pancreas systems able to treat type 1 diabetes; most often they are built based on a control algorithm that needs to be validated before it is used with real patients. Control algorithms are usually tested with simulation tools that integrate mathematical models related mainly to the glucose-insulin dynamics, but other variables can be considered as well. In general, the simulators have a limited set of subjects. The main goal of this paper is to propose a new computational method to increase the number of virtual subjects, with physiological characteristics, included in the original mathematical models. METHODS A subject is defined by a set of parameters given by a mathematical model. From the available reduced number of subjects in the model, the covariance of each parameter of every subject is obtained to establish a mathematical relationship. Then, new sets of parameters are calculated using linear regression methods; this generates larger cohorts, which allows for testing insulin therapies in open-loop or closed-loop scenarios. The new method proposed here increases the number of subjects in a virtual cohort using two versions of Hovorka's mathematical model. RESULTS Two covariant cohorts are obtained with linear regression. Both cohorts are clustered to avoid overlapping in the glucose-insulin dynamics and are compared in terms of their qualitative and quantitative behaviours in the normoglycemic range. As a result, there have been generated two larger cohorts (256 subjects) than the original population, which contributes to improving the variability in in-silico tests. In addition, for analysing the characteristics of the covariant generation method, two random cohorts have been generated, where the parameters are obtained individually and independently from each other, exhibiting only distribution limitations so that these cohorts do not have physiological subjects. CONCLUSIONS The proposed methodology has enabled the generation of a large cohort of 256 subjects, with different characteristics that are plausible in the T1DM population, significantly increasing the number of available subjects in existing mathematical models. The proposed methodology does not limit the number of subjects that can be generated and thus, it can be used to increase the number of cohorts provided by other mathematical models in diabetes, or even other scientific problems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Onofre Orozco-López
- Centro Universitario de los Lagos, Universidad de Guadalajara, Enrique Díaz de León 1144, Col Paseos de la Montaña Lagos de Moreno Jalisco MX. 47460, Mexico
| | - Agustín Rodríguez-Herrero
- Bioengineering and Telemedicine Group, Centro de Tecnología Biomédica. Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Madrid, Spain; Networking Research Center on Bioengineering, Biomaterials and Nanomedicine (CIBER-BBN), Madrid, Spain
| | - Carlos E Castañeda
- Centro Universitario de los Lagos, Universidad de Guadalajara, Enrique Díaz de León 1144, Col Paseos de la Montaña Lagos de Moreno Jalisco MX. 47460, Mexico.
| | - Gema García-Sáez
- Bioengineering and Telemedicine Group, Centro de Tecnología Biomédica. Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Madrid, Spain; Networking Research Center on Bioengineering, Biomaterials and Nanomedicine (CIBER-BBN), Madrid, Spain
| | - M Elena Hernando
- Bioengineering and Telemedicine Group, Centro de Tecnología Biomédica. Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Madrid, Spain; Networking Research Center on Bioengineering, Biomaterials and Nanomedicine (CIBER-BBN), Madrid, Spain
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Wang W, Wang S, Wang X, Liu D, Geng Y, Wu T. A Glucose-Insulin Mixture Model and Application to Short-Term Hypoglycemia Prediction in the Night Time. IEEE Trans Biomed Eng 2020; 68:834-845. [PMID: 32776874 DOI: 10.1109/tbme.2020.3015199] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Insulin-induced hypoglycemia is recognized as a critical problem for diabetic patients, especially at night. To give glucose prediction and advance warning of hypoglycemia of at least 30 minutes, various glucose-insulin models have been proposed. Recognizing the complementary nature of the models, this research proposes a Glucose-Insulin Mixture (GIM) model to predict the glucose values for hypoglycemia detection, by optimally fusing different models with its adjusted parameters to address the inter- and intra-individual variability. METHODS Two types of classic glucose-insulin models, the Ruan model, with single-compartment glucose kinetics, and the Hovorka model, with two-compartment glucose kinetics, are selected as two candidate models. Based on Bayesian inference, GIM is introduced with quantified contributions from the models with the associated parameters. GIM is then applied to predict the glucose values and hypoglycemia events. RESULTS The proposed model is validated by the nocturnal glucose data collected from 12 participants with type 1 diabetes. The GIM model has promising fitting of RMSE within 0.3465 mmol/L and predicting of RMSE within 0.5571 mmol/L. According to the literature, the hypoglycemia is defined as 3.9 mmol/L, and the GIM model shows good short-term hypoglycemia prediction performance with the data collected within the last hour (accuracy: 95.97%, precision: 91.77%, recall: 95.60%). In addition, the probability of hypoglycemia event in 30 minutes is inferred. CONCLUSION GIM, by fusing various glucose-insulin models via Bayesian inference, has the promise to capture glucose dynamics and predict hypoglycemia. SIGNIFICANCE GIM based short-term hypoglycemia prediction has potential clinical utility for timely intervention.
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Munoz-Organero M. Deep Physiological Model for Blood Glucose Prediction in T1DM Patients. SENSORS (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2020; 20:E3896. [PMID: 32668724 PMCID: PMC7412558 DOI: 10.3390/s20143896] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/02/2020] [Revised: 07/01/2020] [Accepted: 07/10/2020] [Indexed: 12/16/2022]
Abstract
Accurate estimations for the near future levels of blood glucose are crucial for Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus (T1DM) patients in order to be able to react on time and avoid hypo and hyper-glycemic episodes. Accurate predictions for blood glucose are the base for control algorithms in glucose regulating systems such as the artificial pancreas. Numerous research studies have already been conducted in order to provide predictions for blood glucose levels with particularities in the input signals and underlying models used. These models can be categorized into two major families: those based on tuning glucose physiological-metabolic models and those based on learning glucose evolution patterns based on machine learning techniques. This paper reviews the state of the art in blood glucose predictions for T1DM patients and proposes, implements, validates and compares a new hybrid model that decomposes a deep machine learning model in order to mimic the metabolic behavior of physiological blood glucose methods. The differential equations for carbohydrate and insulin absorption in physiological models are modeled using a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) implemented using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) cells. The results show Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values under 5 mg/dL for simulated patients and under 10 mg/dL for real patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mario Munoz-Organero
- Telematic Engineering Department and UC3M-BS Institute of Financial Big Data, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Leganes, 28911 Madrid, Spain
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Liu J, Wang L, Zhang L, Zhang Z, Zhang S. Predictive analytics for blood glucose concentration: an empirical study using the tree-based ensemble approach. LIBRARY HI TECH 2020. [DOI: 10.1108/lht-08-2019-0171] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
PurposeThe primary objective of this study was to recognize critical indicators in predicting blood glucose (BG) through data-driven methods and to compare the prediction performance of four tree-based ensemble models, i.e. bagging with tree regressors (bagging-decision tree [Bagging-DT]), AdaBoost with tree regressors (Adaboost-DT), random forest (RF) and gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT).Design/methodology/approachThis study proposed a majority voting feature selection method by combining lasso regression with the Akaike information criterion (AIC) (LR-AIC), lasso regression with the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) (LR-BIC) and RF to select indicators with excellent predictive performance from initial 38 indicators in 5,642 samples. The selected features were deployed to build the tree-based ensemble models. The 10-fold cross-validation (CV) method was used to evaluate the performance of each ensemble model.FindingsThe results of feature selection indicated that age, corpuscular hemoglobin concentration (CHC), red blood cell volume distribution width (RBCVDW), red blood cell volume and leucocyte count are five most important clinical/physical indicators in BG prediction. Furthermore, this study also found that the GBDT ensemble model combined with the proposed majority voting feature selection method is better than other three models with respect to prediction performance and stability.Practical implicationsThis study proposed a novel BG prediction framework for better predictive analytics in health care.Social implicationsThis study incorporated medical background and machine learning technology to reduce diabetes morbidity and formulate precise medical schemes.Originality/valueThe majority voting feature selection method combined with the GBDT ensemble model provides an effective decision-making tool for predicting BG and detecting diabetes risk in advance.
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Stafford IS, Kellermann M, Mossotto E, Beattie RM, MacArthur BD, Ennis S. A systematic review of the applications of artificial intelligence and machine learning in autoimmune diseases. NPJ Digit Med 2020; 3:30. [PMID: 32195365 PMCID: PMC7062883 DOI: 10.1038/s41746-020-0229-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 102] [Impact Index Per Article: 25.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/12/2019] [Accepted: 01/17/2020] [Indexed: 02/07/2023] Open
Abstract
Autoimmune diseases are chronic, multifactorial conditions. Through machine learning (ML), a branch of the wider field of artificial intelligence, it is possible to extract patterns within patient data, and exploit these patterns to predict patient outcomes for improved clinical management. Here, we surveyed the use of ML methods to address clinical problems in autoimmune disease. A systematic review was conducted using MEDLINE, embase and computers and applied sciences complete databases. Relevant papers included "machine learning" or "artificial intelligence" and the autoimmune diseases search term(s) in their title, abstract or key words. Exclusion criteria: studies not written in English, no real human patient data included, publication prior to 2001, studies that were not peer reviewed, non-autoimmune disease comorbidity research and review papers. 169 (of 702) studies met the criteria for inclusion. Support vector machines and random forests were the most popular ML methods used. ML models using data on multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis and inflammatory bowel disease were most common. A small proportion of studies (7.7% or 13/169) combined different data types in the modelling process. Cross-validation, combined with a separate testing set for more robust model evaluation occurred in 8.3% of papers (14/169). The field may benefit from adopting a best practice of validation, cross-validation and independent testing of ML models. Many models achieved good predictive results in simple scenarios (e.g. classification of cases and controls). Progression to more complex predictive models may be achievable in future through integration of multiple data types.
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Affiliation(s)
- I. S. Stafford
- Department of Human Genetics and Genomic Medicine, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
- Institute for Life Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - M. Kellermann
- Department of Human Genetics and Genomic Medicine, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - E. Mossotto
- Department of Human Genetics and Genomic Medicine, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
- Institute for Life Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - R. M. Beattie
- Department of Paediatric Gastroenterology, Southampton Children’s Hospital, Southampton, UK
| | - B. D. MacArthur
- Institute for Life Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - S. Ennis
- Department of Human Genetics and Genomic Medicine, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
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