MCMC can detect nonidentifiable models

Structured methods for parameter inference and uncertainty quantification for mechanistic models in the life sciences

Parameter inference and uncertainty quantification are important steps when relating mathematical models to real-world observations and when estimating uncertainty in model predictions. However, methods for doing this can be computationally expensive, particularly when the number of unknown model parameters is large. The aim of this study is to develop and test an efficient profile likelihood-based method, which takes advantage of the structure of the mathematical model being used. We do this by identifying specific parameters that affect model output in a known way, such as a linear scaling. We illustrate the method by applying it to three toy models from different areas of the life sciences: (i) a predator-prey model from ecology; (ii) a compartment-based epidemic model from health sciences; and (iii) an advection-diffusion reaction model describing the transport of dissolved solutes from environmental science. We show that the new method produces results of comparable accuracy to existing profile likelihood methods but with substantially fewer evaluations of the forward model. We conclude that our method could provide a much more efficient approach to parameter inference for models where a structured approach is feasible. Computer code to apply the new method to user-supplied models and data is provided via a publicly accessible repository.

Making Predictions Using Poorly Identified Mathematical Models

Many commonly used mathematical models in the field of mathematical biology involve challenges of parameter non-identifiability. Practical non-identifiability, where the quality and quantity of data does not provide sufficiently precise parameter estimates is often encountered, even with relatively simple models. In particular, the situation where some parameters are identifiable and others are not is often encountered. In this work we apply a recent likelihood-based workflow, called Profile-Wise Analysis (PWA), to non-identifiable models for the first time. The PWA workflow addresses identifiability, parameter estimation, and prediction in a unified framework that is simple to implement and interpret. Previous implementations of the workflow have dealt with idealised identifiable problems only. In this study we illustrate how the PWA workflow can be applied to both structurally non-identifiable and practically non-identifiable models in the context of simple population growth models. Dealing with simple mathematical models allows us to present the PWA workflow in a didactic, self-contained document that can be studied together with relatively straightforward Julia code provided on GitHub . Working with simple mathematical models allows the PWA workflow prediction intervals to be compared with gold standard full likelihood prediction intervals. Together, our examples illustrate how the PWA workflow provides us with a systematic way of dealing with non-identifiability, especially compared to other approaches, such as seeking ad hoc parameter combinations, or simply setting parameter values to some arbitrary default value. Importantly, we show that the PWA workflow provides insight into the commonly-encountered situation where some parameters are identifiable and others are not, allowing us to explore how uncertainty in some parameters, and combinations of parameters, regardless of their identifiability status, influences model predictions in a way that is insightful and interpretable.

Parameter Identifiability in PDE Models of Fluorescence Recovery After Photobleaching

Identifying unique parameters for mathematical models describing biological data can be challenging and often impossible. Parameter identifiability for partial differential equations models in cell biology is especially difficult given that many established in vivo measurements of protein dynamics average out the spatial dimensions. Here, we are motivated by recent experiments on the binding dynamics of the RNA-binding protein PTBP3 in RNP granules of frog oocytes based on fluorescence recovery after photobleaching (FRAP) measurements. FRAP is a widely-used experimental technique for probing protein dynamics in living cells, and is often modeled using simple reaction-diffusion models of the protein dynamics. We show that current methods of structural and practical parameter identifiability provide limited insights into identifiability of kinetic parameters for these PDE models and spatially-averaged FRAP data. We thus propose a pipeline for assessing parameter identifiability and for learning parameter combinations based on re-parametrization and profile likelihoods analysis. We show that this method is able to recover parameter combinations for synthetic FRAP datasets and investigate its application to real experimental data.

Identifying the generator matrix of a stationary Markov chain using partially observable data

Given that most states in real-world systems are inaccessible, it is critical to study the inverse problem of an irreversibly stationary Markov chain regarding how a generator matrix can be identified using minimal observations. The hitting-time distribution of an irreversibly stationary Markov chain is first generalized from a reversible case. The hitting-time distribution is then decoded via the taboo rate, and the results show remarkably that under mild conditions, the generator matrix of a reversible Markov chain or a specific case of irreversibly stationary ones can be identified by utilizing observations from all leaves and two adjacent states in each cycle. Several algorithms are proposed for calculating the generator matrix accurately, and numerical examples are presented to confirm their validity and efficiency. An application to neurophysiology is provided to demonstrate the applicability of such statistics to real-world data. This means that partially observable data can be used to identify the generator matrix of a stationary Markov chain.

Exploration of the Parameter Space of an Ion Channel Kinetic Model by a Markov-Chain-Based Methodology

In this work, we propose a methodology based on Monte Carlo Markov chains to explore the parameter space of kinetic models for ion channels. The methodology allows the detection of potential parameter sets of a model that are compatible with experimentally obtained whole-cell currents, which could remain hidden when methods focus on obtaining the parameters that provide the best fit. To show its implementation and utility, we considered a four-state kinetic model proposed in the literature to describe the activation of the voltage-gated proton channel (Hv1), Biophysical Journal, 2014, 107, 1564. In that work, a set of values for the rate transitions that describe the channel kinetics at different intracellular H+ concentration (pHi) were obtained by the Simplex method. With our approach, we find that, in fact, there is more than one parameter set for each pHi, which renders the same open probability temporal course within the experimental error margin for all of the considered voltages. The large differences that we obtained for the values of some rate constants among the different solutions show that there is more than one possible interpretation of this channel behavior as a function of pHi. We also simulated a proposed new experimental condition where it is possible to observe that different sets of parameters yield different results. Our study highlights the importance of a comprehensive analysis of parameter space in kinetic models and the utility of the proposed methodology for finding potential solutions.

Implementing measurement error models with mechanistic mathematical models in a likelihood-based framework for estimation, identifiability analysis and prediction in the life sciences

Throughout the life sciences, we routinely seek to interpret measurements and observations using parametrized mechanistic mathematical models. A fundamental and often overlooked choice in this approach involves relating the solution of a mathematical model with noisy and incomplete measurement data. This is often achieved by assuming that the data are noisy measurements of the solution of a deterministic mathematical model, and that measurement errors are additive and normally distributed. While this assumption of additive Gaussian noise is extremely common and simple to implement and interpret, it is often unjustified and can lead to poor parameter estimates and non-physical predictions. One way to overcome this challenge is to implement a different measurement error model. In this review, we demonstrate how to implement a range of measurement error models in a likelihood-based framework for estimation, identifiability analysis and prediction, called profile-wise analysis. This frequentist approach to uncertainty quantification for mechanistic models leverages the profile likelihood for targeting parameters and understanding their influence on predictions. Case studies, motivated by simple caricature models routinely used in systems biology and mathematical biology literature, illustrate how the same ideas apply to different types of mathematical models. Open-source Julia code to reproduce results is available on GitHub.

Profile-Wise Analysis: A profile likelihood-based workflow for identifiability analysis, estimation, and prediction with mechanistic mathematical models

Interpreting data using mechanistic mathematical models provides a foundation for discovery and decision-making in all areas of science and engineering. Developing mechanistic insight by combining mathematical models and experimental data is especially critical in mathematical biology as new data and new types of data are collected and reported. Key steps in using mechanistic mathematical models to interpret data include: (i) identifiability analysis; (ii) parameter estimation; and (iii) model prediction. Here we present a systematic, computationally-efficient workflow we call Profile-Wise Analysis (PWA) that addresses all three steps in a unified way. Recently-developed methods for constructing 'profile-wise' prediction intervals enable this workflow and provide the central linkage between different workflow components. These methods propagate profile-likelihood-based confidence sets for model parameters to predictions in a way that isolates how different parameter combinations affect model predictions. We show how to extend these profile-wise prediction intervals to two-dimensional interest parameters. We then demonstrate how to combine profile-wise prediction confidence sets to give an overall prediction confidence set that approximates the full likelihood-based prediction confidence set well. Our three case studies illustrate practical aspects of the workflow, focusing on ordinary differential equation (ODE) mechanistic models with both Gaussian and non-Gaussian noise models. While the case studies focus on ODE-based models, the workflow applies to other classes of mathematical models, including partial differential equations and simulation-based stochastic models. Open-source software on GitHub can be used to replicate the case studies.

Quantifying tissue growth, shape and collision via continuum models and Bayesian inference

Although tissues are usually studied in isolation, this situation rarely occurs in biology, as cells, tissues and organs coexist and interact across scales to determine both shape and function. Here, we take a quantitative approach combining data from recent experiments, mathematical modelling and Bayesian parameter inference, to describe the self-assembly of multiple epithelial sheets by growth and collision. We use two simple and well-studied continuum models, where cells move either randomly or following population pressure gradients. After suitable calibration, both models prove to be practically identifiable, and can reproduce the main features of single tissue expansions. However, our findings reveal that whenever tissue-tissue interactions become relevant, the random motion assumption can lead to unrealistic behaviour. Under this setting, a model accounting for population pressure from different cell populations is more appropriate and shows a better agreement with experimental measurements. Finally, we discuss how tissue shape and pressure affect multi-tissue collisions. Our work thus provides a systematic approach to quantify and predict complex tissue configurations with applications in the design of tissue composites and more generally in tissue engineering.

The lost art of mathematical modelling

We provide a critique of mathematical biology in light of rapid developments in modern machine learning. We argue that out of the three modelling activities - (1) formulating models; (2) analysing models; and (3) fitting or comparing models to data - inherent to mathematical biology, researchers currently focus too much on activity (2) at the cost of (1). This trend, we propose, can be reversed by realising that any given biological phenomenon can be modelled in an infinite number of different ways, through the adoption of an pluralistic approach, where we view a system from multiple, different points of view. We explain this pluralistic approach using fish locomotion as a case study and illustrate some of the pitfalls - universalism, creating models of models, etc. - that hinder mathematical biology. We then ask how we might rediscover a lost art: that of creative mathematical modelling.

A target-cell limited model can reproduce influenza infection dynamics in hosts with differing immune responses

We consider a hierarchy of ordinary differential equation models that describe the within-host viral kinetics of influenza infections: the IR model explicitly accounts for an immune response to the virus, while the simpler, target-cell limited TEIV and TV models do not. We show that when the IR model is fitted to pooled experimental murine data of the viral load, fraction of dead cells, and immune response levels, its parameters values can be determined. However, if, as is common, only viral load data are available, we can estimate parameters of the TEIV and TV models but not the IR model. These results are substantiated by a structural and practical identifiability analysis. We then use the IR model to generate synthetic data representing infections in hosts whose immune responses differ. We fit the TV model to these synthetic datasets and show that it can reproduce the characteristic exponential increase and decay of viral load generated by the IR model. Furthermore, the values of the fitted parameters of the TV model can be mapped from the immune response parameters in the IR model. We conclude that, if only viral load data are available, a simple target-cell limited model can reproduce influenza infection dynamics and distinguish between hosts with differing immune responses.

The fractal brain: scale-invariance in structure and dynamics

The past 40 years have witnessed extensive research on fractal structure and scale-free dynamics in the brain. Although considerable progress has been made, a comprehensive picture has yet to emerge, and needs further linking to a mechanistic account of brain function. Here, we review these concepts, connecting observations across different levels of organization, from both a structural and functional perspective. We argue that, paradoxically, the level of cortical circuits is the least understood from a structural point of view and perhaps the best studied from a dynamical one. We further link observations about scale-freeness and fractality with evidence that the environment provides constraints that may explain the usefulness of fractal structure and scale-free dynamics in the brain. Moreover, we discuss evidence that behavior exhibits scale-free properties, likely emerging from similarly organized brain dynamics, enabling an organism to thrive in an environment that shares the same organizational principles. Finally, we review the sparse evidence for and try to speculate on the functional consequences of fractality and scale-freeness for brain computation. These properties may endow the brain with computational capabilities that transcend current models of neural computation and could hold the key to unraveling how the brain constructs percepts and generates behavior.

Profile likelihood-based parameter and predictive interval analysis guides model choice for ecological population dynamics

Calibrating mathematical models to describe ecological data provides important insight via parameter estimation that is not possible from analysing data alone. When we undertake a mathematical modelling study of ecological or biological data, we must deal with the trade-off between data availability and model complexity. Dealing with the nexus between data availability and model complexity is an ongoing challenge in mathematical modelling, particularly in mathematical biology and mathematical ecology where data collection is often not standardised, and more broad questions about model selection remain relatively open. Therefore, choosing an appropriate model almost always requires case-by-case consideration. In this work we present a straightforward approach to quantitatively explore this trade-off using a case study exploring mathematical models of coral reef regrowth after some ecological disturbance, such as damage caused by a tropical cyclone. In particular, we compare a simple single species ordinary differential equation (ODE) model approach with a more complicated two-species coupled ODE model. Univariate profile likelihood analysis suggests that the both models are practically identifiable. To provide additional insight we construct and compare approximate prediction intervals using a new parameter-wise prediction approximation, confirming both the simple and complex models perform similarly with regard to making predictions. Our approximate parameter-wise prediction interval analysis provides explicit information about how each parameter affects the predictions of each model. Comparing our approximate prediction intervals with a more rigorous and computationally expensive evaluation of the full likelihood shows that the new approximations are reasonable in this case. All algorithms and software to support this work are freely available as jupyter notebooks on GitHub so that they can be adapted to deal with any other ODE-based models.

Open problems in mathematical biology

Biology is data-rich, and it is equally rich in concepts and hypotheses. Part of trying to understand biological processes and systems is therefore to confront our ideas and hypotheses with data using statistical methods to determine the extent to which our hypotheses agree with reality. But doing so in a systematic way is becoming increasingly challenging as our hypotheses become more detailed, and our data becomes more complex. Mathematical methods are therefore gaining in importance across the life- and biomedical sciences. Mathematical models allow us to test our understanding, make testable predictions about future behaviour, and gain insights into how we can control the behaviour of biological systems. It has been argued that mathematical methods can be of great benefit to biologists to make sense of data. But mathematics and mathematicians are set to benefit equally from considering the often bewildering complexity inherent to living systems. Here we present a small selection of open problems and challenges in mathematical biology. We have chosen these open problems because they are of both biological and mathematical interest.

Computationally efficient framework for diagnosing, understanding and predicting biphasic population growth

Throughout the life sciences, biological populations undergo multiple phases of growth, often referred to as biphasic growth for the commonly encountered situation involving two phases. Biphasic population growth occurs over a massive range of spatial and temporal scales, ranging from microscopic growth of tumours over several days, to decades-long regrowth of corals in coral reefs that can extend for hundreds of kilometres. Different mathematical models and statistical methods are used to diagnose, understand and predict biphasic growth. Common approaches can lead to inaccurate predictions of future growth that may result in inappropriate management and intervention strategies being implemented. Here, we develop a very general computationally efficient framework, based on profile likelihood analysis, for diagnosing, understanding and predicting biphasic population growth. The two key components of the framework are as follows: (i) an efficient method to form approximate confidence intervals for the change point of the growth dynamics and model parameters and (ii) parameter-wise profile predictions that systematically reveal the influence of individual model parameters on predictions. To illustrate our framework we explore real-world case studies across the life sciences.

Efficient inference and identifiability analysis for differential equation models with random parameters

Heterogeneity is a dominant factor in the behaviour of many biological processes. Despite this, it is common for mathematical and statistical analyses to ignore biological heterogeneity as a source of variability in experimental data. Therefore, methods for exploring the identifiability of models that explicitly incorporate heterogeneity through variability in model parameters are relatively underdeveloped. We develop a new likelihood-based framework, based on moment matching, for inference and identifiability analysis of differential equation models that capture biological heterogeneity through parameters that vary according to probability distributions. As our novel method is based on an approximate likelihood function, it is highly flexible; we demonstrate identifiability analysis using both a frequentist approach based on profile likelihood, and a Bayesian approach based on Markov-chain Monte Carlo. Through three case studies, we demonstrate our method by providing a didactic guide to inference and identifiability analysis of hyperparameters that relate to the statistical moments of model parameters from independent observed data. Our approach has a computational cost comparable to analysis of models that neglect heterogeneity, a significant improvement over many existing alternatives. We demonstrate how analysis of random parameter models can aid better understanding of the sources of heterogeneity from biological data.

An in-silico analysis of experimental designs to study ventricular function: A focus on the right ventricle

In-vivo studies of pulmonary vascular disease and pulmonary hypertension (PH) have provided key insight into the progression of right ventricular (RV) dysfunction. Additional in-silico experiments using multiscale computational models have provided further details into biventricular mechanics and hemodynamic function in the presence of PH, yet few have assessed whether model parameters are practically identifiable prior to data collection. Moreover, none have used modeling to devise synergistic experimental designs. To address this knowledge gap, we conduct a practical identifiability analysis of a multiscale cardiovascular model across four simulated experimental designs. We determine a set of parameters using a combination of Morris screening and local sensitivity analysis, and test for practical identifiability using profile likelihood-based confidence intervals. We employ Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to quantify parameter and model forecast uncertainty in the presence of noise corrupted data. Our results show that model calibration to only RV pressure suffers from practical identifiability issues and suffers from large forecast uncertainty in output space. In contrast, parameter and model forecast uncertainty is substantially reduced once additional left ventricular (LV) pressure and volume data is included. A comparison between single point systolic and diastolic LV data and continuous, time-dependent LV pressure-volume data reveals that at least some quantitative data from both ventricles should be included for future experimental studies.

Identifiability of parameters in mathematical models of SARS-CoV-2 infections in humans

Determining accurate estimates for the characteristics of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in the upper and lower respiratory tracts, by fitting mathematical models to data, is made difficult by the lack of measurements early in the infection. To determine the sensitivity of the parameter estimates to the noise in the data, we developed a novel two-patch within-host mathematical model that considered the infection of both respiratory tracts and assumed that the viral load in the lower respiratory tract decays in a density dependent manner and investigated its ability to match population level data. We proposed several approaches that can improve practical identifiability of parameters, including an optimal experimental approach, and found that availability of viral data early in the infection is of essence for improving the accuracy of the estimates. Our findings can be useful for designing interventions.

Bayesian inference of kinetic schemes for ion channels by Kalman filtering

Inferring adequate kinetic schemes for ion channel gating from ensemble currents is a daunting task due to limited information in the data. We address this problem by using a parallelized Bayesian filter to specify hidden Markov models for current and fluorescence data. We demonstrate the flexibility of this algorithm by including different noise distributions. Our generalized Kalman filter outperforms both a classical Kalman filter and a rate equation approach when applied to patch-clamp data exhibiting realistic open-channel noise. The derived generalization also enables inclusion of orthogonal fluorescence data, making unidentifiable parameters identifiable and increasing the accuracy of the parameter estimates by an order of magnitude. By using Bayesian highest credibility volumes, we found that our approach, in contrast to the rate equation approach, yields a realistic uncertainty quantification. Furthermore, the Bayesian filter delivers negligibly biased estimates for a wider range of data quality. For some data sets, it identifies more parameters than the rate equation approach. These results also demonstrate the power of assessing the validity of algorithms by Bayesian credibility volumes in general. Finally, we show that our Bayesian filter is more robust against errors induced by either analog filtering before analog-to-digital conversion or by limited time resolution of fluorescence data than a rate equation approach.

Parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification using information geometry

In this work, we: (i) review likelihood-based inference for parameter estimation and the construction of confidence regions; and (ii) explore the use of techniques from information geometry, including geodesic curves and Riemann scalar curvature, to supplement typical techniques for uncertainty quantification, such as Bayesian methods, profile likelihood, asymptotic analysis and bootstrapping. These techniques from information geometry provide data-independent insights into uncertainty and identifiability, and can be used to inform data collection decisions. All code used in this work to implement the inference and information geometry techniques is available on GitHub.

A Quantitative Systems Pharmacology Perspective on the Importance of Parameter Identifiability

There is an inherent tension in Quantitative Systems Pharmacology (QSP) between the need to incorporate mathematical descriptions of complex physiology and drug targets with the necessity of developing robust, predictive and well-constrained models. In addition to this, there is no “gold standard” for model development and assessment in QSP. Moreover, there can be confusion over terminology such as model and parameter identifiability; complex and simple models; virtual populations; and other concepts, which leads to potential miscommunication and misapplication of methodologies within modeling communities, both the QSP community and related disciplines. This perspective article highlights the pros and cons of using simple (often identifiable) vs. complex (more physiologically detailed but often non-identifiable) models, as well as aspects of parameter identifiability, sensitivity and inference methodologies for model development and analysis. The paper distills the central themes of the issue of identifiability and optimal model size and discusses open challenges.

Identification of structures for ion channel kinetic models

Markov models of ion channel dynamics have evolved as experimental advances have improved our understanding of channel function. Past studies have examined limited sets of various topologies for Markov models of channel dynamics. We present a systematic method for identification of all possible Markov model topologies using experimental data for two types of native voltage-gated ion channel currents: mouse atrial sodium currents and human left ventricular fast transient outward potassium currents. Successful models identified with this approach have certain characteristics in common, suggesting that aspects of the model topology are determined by the experimental data. Incorporating these channel models into cell and tissue simulations to assess model performance within protocols that were not used for training provided validation and further narrowing of the number of acceptable models. The success of this approach suggests a channel model creation pipeline may be feasible where the structure of the model is not specified a priori.

Markov models of ion channel dynamics have evolved as experimental advances have improved our understanding of channel function. Past studies have examined limited sets of various structures for Markov models of channel dynamics. Here, we present a computational routine designed to thoroughly search for Markov model topologies for simulating whole-cell currents. We tested this method on two distinct types of voltage-gated cardiac ion channels and found the number of states and connectivity required to recapitulate experimentally observed kinetics. Successful models identified with this approach have certain characteristics in common, suggesting that model structures are determined by the experimental data. Incorporation of these models into higher scale action potential and cable (an approximation of one-dimensional action potential propagation) simulations, identified key channel phenomena that were required for proper function. These methods provide a route to create functional channel models that can be used for action potential simulation without pre-defining their structure ahead of time.

Statistical Approach to Incorporating Experimental Variability into a Mathematical Model of the Voltage-Gated Na+ Channel and Human Atrial Action Potential

The voltage-gated Na⁺ channel Na_v1.5 is critical for normal cardiac myocyte excitability. Mathematical models have been widely used to study Na_v1.5 function and link to a range of cardiac arrhythmias. There is growing appreciation for the importance of incorporating physiological heterogeneity observed even in a healthy population into mathematical models of the cardiac action potential. Here, we apply methods from Bayesian statistics to capture the variability in experimental measurements on human atrial Na_v1.5 across experimental protocols and labs. This variability was used to define a physiological distribution for model parameters in a novel model formulation of Na_v1.5, which was then incorporated into an existing human atrial action potential model. Model validation was performed by comparing the simulated distribution of action potential upstroke velocity measurements to experimental measurements from several different sources. Going forward, we hope to apply this approach to other major atrial ion channels to create a comprehensive model of the human atrial AP. We anticipate that such a model will be useful for understanding excitability at the population level, including variable drug response and penetrance of variants linked to inherited cardiac arrhythmia syndromes.

Profile likelihood analysis for a stochastic model of diffusion in heterogeneous media

We compute profile likelihoods for a stochastic model of diffusive transport motivated by experimental observations of heat conduction in layered skin tissues. This process is modelled as a random walk in a layered one-dimensional material, where each layer has a distinct particle hopping rate. Particles are released at some location, and the duration of time taken for each particle to reach an absorbing boundary is recorded. To explore whether these data can be used to identify the hopping rates in each layer, we compute various profile likelihoods using two methods: first, an exact likelihood is evaluated using a relatively expensive Markov chain approach; and, second, we form an approximate likelihood by assuming the distribution of exit times is given by a Gamma distribution whose first two moments match the moments from the continuum limit description of the stochastic model. Using the exact and approximate likelihoods, we construct various profile likelihoods for a range of problems. In cases where parameter values are not identifiable, we make progress by re-interpreting those data with a reduced model with a smaller number of layers.

Identifiability analysis for stochastic differential equation models in systems biology

Mathematical models are routinely calibrated to experimental data, with goals ranging from building predictive models to quantifying parameters that cannot be measured. Whether or not reliable parameter estimates are obtainable from the available data can easily be overlooked. Such issues of parameter identifiability have important ramifications for both the predictive power of a model, and the mechanistic insight that can be obtained. Identifiability analysis is well-established for deterministic, ordinary differential equation (ODE) models, but there are no commonly adopted methods for analysing identifiability in stochastic models. We provide an accessible introduction to identifiability analysis and demonstrate how existing ideas for analysis of ODE models can be applied to stochastic differential equation (SDE) models through four practical case studies. To assess structural identifiability, we study ODEs that describe the statistical moments of the stochastic process using open-source software tools. Using practically motivated synthetic data and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, we assess parameter identifiability in the context of available data. Our analysis shows that SDE models can often extract more information about parameters than deterministic descriptions. All code used to perform the analysis is available on Github.

Modeling the Interactions Between Sodium Channels Provides Insight Into the Negative Dominance of Certain Channel Mutations

BACKGROUND

Nav1.5 cardiac Na+ channel mutations can cause arrhythmogenic syndromes. Some of these mutations exert a dominant negative effect on wild-type channels. Recent studies showed that Na+ channels can dimerize, allowing coupled gating. This leads to the hypothesis that allosteric interactions between Na+ channels modulate their function and that these interactions may contribute to the negative dominance of certain mutations.

METHODS

To investigate how allosteric interactions affect microscopic and macroscopic channel function, we developed a modeling paradigm in which Markovian models of two channels are combined. Allosteric interactions are incorporated by modifying the free energies of the composite states and/or barriers between states.

RESULTS

Simulations using two generic 2-state models (C-O, closed-open) revealed that increasing the free energy of the composite states CO/OC leads to coupled gating. Simulations using two 3-state models (closed-open-inactivated) revealed that coupled closings must also involve interactions between further composite states. Using two 6-state cardiac Na+ channel models, we replicated previous experimental results mainly by increasing the energies of the CO/OC states and lowering the energy barriers between the CO/OC and the CO/OO states. The channel model was then modified to simulate a negative dominant mutation (Nav1.5 p.L325R). Simulations of homodimers and heterodimers in the presence and absence of interactions showed that the interactions with the variant channel impair the opening of the wild-type channel and thus contribute to negative dominance.

CONCLUSION

Our new modeling framework recapitulates qualitatively previous experimental observations and helps identifying possible interaction mechanisms between ion channels.

Influencing public health policy with data-informed mathematical models of infectious diseases: Recent developments and new challenges

Modern data and computational resources, coupled with algorithmic and theoretical advances to exploit these, allow disease dynamic models to be parameterised with increasing detail and accuracy. While this enhances models' usefulness in prediction and policy, major challenges remain. In particular, lack of identifiability of a model's parameters may limit the usefulness of the model. While lack of parameter identifiability may be resolved through incorporation into an inference procedure of prior knowledge, formulating such knowledge is often difficult. Furthermore, there are practical challenges associated with acquiring data of sufficient quantity and quality. Here, we discuss recent progress on these issues.

Ca2+ Release via IP3 Receptors Shapes the Cardiac Ca2+ Transient for Hypertrophic Signaling

Calcium (Ca²⁺) plays a central role in mediating both contractile function and hypertrophic signaling in ventricular cardiomyocytes. L-type Ca²⁺ channels trigger release of Ca²⁺ from ryanodine receptors for cellular contraction, whereas signaling downstream of G-protein-coupled receptors stimulates Ca²⁺ release via inositol 1,4,5-trisphosphate receptors (IP₃Rs), engaging hypertrophic signaling pathways. Modulation of the amplitude, duration, and duty cycle of the cytosolic Ca²⁺ contraction signal and spatial localization have all been proposed to encode this hypertrophic signal. Given current knowledge of IP₃Rs, we develop a model describing the effect of functional interaction (cross talk) between ryanodine receptor and IP₃R channels on the Ca²⁺ transient and examine the sensitivity of the Ca²⁺ transient shape to properties of IP₃R activation. A key result of our study is that IP₃R activation increases Ca²⁺ transient duration for a broad range of IP₃R properties, but the effect of IP₃R activation on Ca²⁺ transient amplitude is dependent on IP₃ concentration. Furthermore we demonstrate that IP₃-mediated Ca²⁺ release in the cytosol increases the duty cycle of the Ca²⁺ transient, the fraction of the cycle for which [Ca²⁺] is elevated, across a broad range of parameter values and IP₃ concentrations. When coupled to a model of downstream transcription factor (NFAT) activation, we demonstrate that there is a high correspondence between the Ca²⁺ transient duty cycle and the proportion of activated NFAT in the nucleus. These findings suggest increased cytosolic Ca²⁺ duty cycle as a plausible mechanism for IP₃-dependent hypertrophic signaling via Ca²⁺-sensitive transcription factors such as NFAT in ventricular cardiomyocytes.

Calibration of ionic and cellular cardiac electrophysiology models

Cardiac electrophysiology models are among the most mature and well-studied mathematical models of biological systems. This maturity is bringing new challenges as models are being used increasingly to make quantitative rather than qualitative predictions. As such, calibrating the parameters within ion current and action potential (AP) models to experimental data sets is a crucial step in constructing a predictive model. This review highlights some of the fundamental concepts in cardiac model calibration and is intended to be readily understood by computational and mathematical modelers working in other fields of biology. We discuss the classic and latest approaches to calibration in the electrophysiology field, at both the ion channel and cellular AP scales. We end with a discussion of the many challenges that work to date has raised and the need for reproducible descriptions of the calibration process to enable models to be recalibrated to new data sets and built upon for new studies. This article is categorized under: Analytical and Computational Methods > Computational Methods Physiology > Mammalian Physiology in Health and Disease Models of Systems Properties and Processes > Cellular Models.

Practical parameter identifiability for spatio-temporal models of cell invasion

We examine the practical identifiability of parameters in a spatio-temporal reaction-diffusion model of a scratch assay. Experimental data involve fluorescent cell cycle labels, providing spatial information about cell position and temporal information about the cell cycle phase. Cell cycle labelling is incorporated into the reaction-diffusion model by treating the total population as two interacting subpopulations. Practical identifiability is examined using a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework, confirming that the parameters are identifiable when we assume the diffusivities of the subpopulations are identical, but that the parameters are practically non-identifiable when we allow the diffusivities to be distinct. We also assess practical identifiability using a profile likelihood approach, providing similar results to MCMC with the advantage of being an order of magnitude faster to compute. Therefore, we suggest that the profile likelihood ought to be adopted as a screening tool to assess practical identifiability before MCMC computations are performed.

Inversion and computational maturation of drug response using human stem cell derived cardiomyocytes in microphysiological systems

While cardiomyocytes differentiated from human induced pluripotent stems cells (hiPSCs) hold great promise for drug screening, the electrophysiological properties of these cells can be variable and immature, producing results that are significantly different from their human adult counterparts. Here, we describe a computational framework to address this limitation, and show how in silico methods, applied to measurements on immature cardiomyocytes, can be used to both identify drug action and to predict its effect in mature cells. Our synthetic and experimental results indicate that optically obtained waveforms of voltage and calcium from microphysiological systems can be inverted into information on drug ion channel blockage, and then, through assuming functional invariance of proteins during maturation, this data can be used to predict drug induced changes in mature ventricular cells. Together, this pipeline of measurements and computational analysis could significantly improve the ability of hiPSC derived cardiomycocytes to predict dangerous drug side effects.

Computing Optimal Properties of Drugs Using Mathematical Models of Single Channel Dynamics

Single channel dynamics can be modeled using stochastic differential equations, and the dynamics of the state of the channel (e.g. open, closed, inactivated) can be represented using Markov models. Such models can also be used to represent the effect of mutations as well as the effect of drugs used to alleviate deleterious effects of mutations. Based on the Markov model and the stochastic models of the single channel, it is possible to derive deterministic partial differential equations (PDEs) giving the probability density functions (PDFs) of the states of the Markov model. In this study, we have analyzed PDEs modeling wild type (WT) channels, mutant channels (MT) and mutant channels for which a drug has been applied (MTD). Our aim is to show that it is possible to optimize the parameters of a given drug such that the solution of theMTD model is very close to that of the WT: the mutation’s effect is, theoretically, reduced significantly.We will present the mathematical framework underpinning this methodology and apply it to several examples. In particular, we will show that it is possible to use the method to, theoretically, improve the properties of some well-known existing drugs.

Reproducible model development in the cardiac electrophysiology Web Lab

The modelling of the electrophysiology of cardiac cells is one of the most mature areas of systems biology. This extended concentration of research effort brings with it new challenges, foremost among which is that of choosing which of these models is most suitable for addressing a particular scientific question. In a previous paper, we presented our initial work in developing an online resource for the characterisation and comparison of electrophysiological cell models in a wide range of experimental scenarios. In that work, we described how we had developed a novel protocol language that allowed us to separate the details of the mathematical model (the majority of cardiac cell models take the form of ordinary differential equations) from the experimental protocol being simulated. We developed a fully-open online repository (which we termed the Cardiac Electrophysiology Web Lab) which allows users to store and compare the results of applying the same experimental protocol to competing models. In the current paper we describe the most recent and planned extensions of this work, focused on supporting the process of model building from experimental data. We outline the necessary work to develop a machine-readable language to describe the process of inferring parameters from wet lab datasets, and illustrate our approach through a detailed example of fitting a model of the hERG channel using experimental data. We conclude by discussing the future challenges in making further progress in this domain towards our goal of facilitating a fully reproducible approach to the development of cardiac cell models.

Comparing two sequential Monte Carlo samplers for exact and approximate Bayesian inference on biological models

Bayesian methods are advantageous for biological modelling studies due to their ability to quantify and characterize posterior variability in model parameters. When Bayesian methods cannot be applied, due either to non-determinism in the model or limitations on system observability, approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods can be used to similar effect, despite producing inflated estimates of the true posterior variance. Owing to generally differing application domains, there are few studies comparing Bayesian and ABC methods, and thus there is little understanding of the properties and magnitude of this uncertainty inflation. To address this problem, we present two popular strategies for ABC sampling that we have adapted to perform exact Bayesian inference, and compare them on several model problems. We find that one sampler was impractical for exact inference due to its sensitivity to a key normalizing constant, and additionally highlight sensitivities of both samplers to various algorithmic parameters and model conditions. We conclude with a study of the O'Hara-Rudy cardiac action potential model to quantify the uncertainty amplification resulting from employing ABC using a set of clinically relevant biomarkers. We hope that this work serves to guide the implementation and comparative assessment of Bayesian and ABC sampling techniques in biological models.

Sinusoidal voltage protocols for rapid characterisation of ion channel kinetics

Key points

Ion current kinetics are commonly represented by current–voltage relationships, time constant–voltage relationships and subsequently mathematical models fitted to these. These experiments take substantial time, which means they are rarely performed in the same cell.

Rather than traditional square‐wave voltage clamps, we fitted a model to the current evoked by a novel sum‐of‐sinusoids voltage clamp that was only 8 s long.

Short protocols that can be performed multiple times within a single cell will offer many new opportunities to measure how ion current kinetics are affected by changing conditions.

The new model predicts the current under traditional square‐wave protocols well, with better predictions of underlying currents than literature models. The current under a novel physiologically relevant series of action potential clamps is predicted extremely well.

The short sinusoidal protocols allow a model to be fully fitted to individual cells, allowing us to examine cell–cell variability in current kinetics for the first time.

Abstract

Understanding the roles of ion currents is crucial to predict the action of pharmaceuticals and mutations in different scenarios, and thereby to guide clinical interventions in the heart, brain and other electrophysiological systems. Our ability to predict how ion currents contribute to cellular electrophysiology is in turn critically dependent on our characterisation of ion channel kinetics – the voltage‐dependent rates of transition between open, closed and inactivated channel states. We present a new method for rapidly exploring and characterising ion channel kinetics, applying it to the hERG potassium channel as an example, with the aim of generating a quantitatively predictive representation of the ion current. We fitted a mathematical model to currents evoked by a novel 8 second sinusoidal voltage clamp in CHO cells overexpressing hERG1a. The model was then used to predict over 5 minutes of recordings in the same cell in response to further protocols: a series of traditional square step voltage clamps, and also a novel voltage clamp comprising a collection of physiologically relevant action potentials. We demonstrate that we can make predictive cell‐specific models that outperform the use of averaged data from a number of different cells, and thereby examine which changes in gating are responsible for cell–cell variability in current kinetics. Our technique allows rapid collection of consistent and high quality data, from single cells, and produces more predictive mathematical ion channel models than traditional approaches.

Ion current kinetics are commonly represented by current–voltage relationships, time constant–voltage relationships and subsequently mathematical models fitted to these. These experiments take substantial time, which means they are rarely performed in the same cell.

Rather than traditional square‐wave voltage clamps, we fitted a model to the current evoked by a novel sum‐of‐sinusoids voltage clamp that was only 8 s long.

Short protocols that can be performed multiple times within a single cell will offer many new opportunities to measure how ion current kinetics are affected by changing conditions.

The new model predicts the current under traditional square‐wave protocols well, with better predictions of underlying currents than literature models. The current under a novel physiologically relevant series of action potential clamps is predicted extremely well.

The short sinusoidal protocols allow a model to be fully fitted to individual cells, allowing us to examine cell–cell variability in current kinetics for the first time.

Gonadotropin-Releasing Hormone (GnRH) Neuron Excitability Is Regulated by Estradiol Feedback and Kisspeptin

Gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) neurons produce the central output controlling fertility and are regulated by steroid feedback. A switch from estradiol negative to positive feedback initiates the GnRH surge, ultimately triggering ovulation. This occurs on a daily basis in ovariectomized, estradiol-treated (OVX+E) mice; GnRH neurons are suppressed in the morning and activated in the afternoon. To test the hypotheses that estradiol and time of day signals alter GnRH neuron responsiveness to stimuli, GFP-identified GnRH neurons in brain slices from OVX+E or OVX female mice were recorded during the morning or afternoon. No differences were observed in baseline membrane potential. Current-clamp revealed GnRH neurons fired more action potentials in response to current injection during positive feedback relative to all other groups, which were not different from each other despite reports of differing ionic conductances. Kisspeptin increased GnRH neuron response in cells from OVX and OVX+E mice in the morning but not afternoon. Paradoxically, excitability in kisspeptin knock-out mice was similar to the maximum observed in control mice but was unchanged by time of day or estradiol. A mathematical model applying a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to estimate probability distributions for estradiol- and time of day-dependent parameters was used to predict intrinsic properties underlying excitability changes. A single identifiable distribution of solutions accounted for similar GnRH neuron excitability in all groups other than positive feedback despite different underlying conductance properties; this was attributable to interdependence of voltage-gated potassium channel properties. In contrast, redundant solutions may explain positive feedback, perhaps indicative of the importance of this state for species survival.SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Infertility affects 15%-20% of couples; failure to ovulate is a common cause. Understanding how the brain controls ovulation is critical for new developments in both infertility treatment and contraception. Gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) neurons are the final common pathway for central neural control of ovulation. We studied how estradiol feedback regulates GnRH excitability, a key determinant of neural firing rate using laboratory and computational approaches. GnRH excitability is upregulated during positive feedback, perhaps driving increased neural firing rate at this time. Kisspeptin increased GnRH excitability and was essential for estradiol regulation of excitability. Modeling predicts that multiple combinations of changes to GnRH intrinsic conductances can produce the firing response in positive feedback, suggesting the brain has many ways to induce ovulation.

Estimating kinetic mechanisms with prior knowledge II: Behavioral constraints and numerical tests

In their preceding paper, Salari et al. describe a formalism that allows existing knowledge to be enforced into kinetic models. Here, Navarro et al. present a penalty-based optimization mechanism to incorporate arbitrary parameter relationships and constraints that quantify the behavior of the model.

Kinetic mechanisms predict how ion channels and other proteins function at the molecular and cellular levels. Ideally, a kinetic model should explain new data but also be consistent with existing knowledge. In this two-part study, we present a mathematical and computational formalism that can be used to enforce prior knowledge into kinetic models using constraints. Here, we focus on constraints that quantify the behavior of the model under certain conditions, and on constraints that enforce arbitrary parameter relationships. The penalty-based optimization mechanism described here can be used to enforce virtually any model property or behavior, including those that cannot be easily expressed through mathematical relationships. Examples include maximum open probability, use-dependent availability, and nonlinear parameter relationships. We use a simple kinetic mechanism to test multiple sets of constraints that implement linear parameter relationships and arbitrary model properties and behaviors, and we provide numerical examples. This work complements and extends the companion article, where we show how to enforce explicit linear parameter relationships. By incorporating more knowledge into the parameter estimation procedure, it is possible to obtain more realistic and robust models with greater predictive power.

Deciphering the regulation of P2X4 receptor channel gating by ivermectin using Markov models

The P2X4 receptor (P2X4R) is a member of a family of purinergic channels activated by extracellular ATP through three orthosteric binding sites and allosterically regulated by ivermectin (IVM), a broad-spectrum antiparasitic agent. Treatment with IVM increases the efficacy of ATP to activate P2X4R, slows both receptor desensitization during sustained ATP application and receptor deactivation after ATP washout, and makes the receptor pore permeable to NMDG⁺, a large organic cation. Previously, we developed a Markov model based on the presence of one IVM binding site, which described some effects of IVM on rat P2X4R. Here we present two novel models, both with three IVM binding sites. The simpler one-layer model can reproduce many of the observed time series of evoked currents, but does not capture well the short time scales of activation, desensitization, and deactivation. A more complex two-layer model can reproduce the transient changes in desensitization observed upon IVM application, the significant increase in ATP-induced current amplitudes at low IVM concentrations, and the modest increase in the unitary conductance. In addition, the two-layer model suggests that this receptor can exist in a deeply inactivated state, not responsive to ATP, and that its desensitization rate can be altered by each of the three IVM binding sites. In summary, this study provides a detailed analysis of P2X4R kinetics and elucidates the orthosteric and allosteric mechanisms regulating its channel gating.

Ligand-gated ion channels play a crucial role in controlling many physiological and pathophysiological processes. Deciphering the gating kinetics of these channels is thus fundamental to understanding how these processes work. ATP-gated purinergic P2X receptors (P2XRs) are prototypic examples of such channels. They are ubiquitously expressed and play roles in numerous cellular processes, including neurotransmission, inflammation, and chronic pain. Seven P2X subunits, named P2X1 through P2X7, and several splice forms of these subunits have been identified in mammal. The receptors are organized as homo- or heterotrimers, each possessing three ATP-binding sites that, when occupied, lead to receptor activation and channel opening. The P2XRs are non-selective cation channels and the gating properties differ between the various receptors. Previously, we have used biophysical and mathematical modeling approaches to decipher the kinetics of homomeric P2X2aR, P2X2bR, P2X4R, and P2X7R. Here we extended our work on P2X4R gating. We developed two mathematical models that could capture the various patterns of ionic currents recorded experimentally and explain the particularly complex kinetics of the receptor during orthosteric activation and allosteric modulation. This was achieved by designing a computationally efficient, inference-based fitting algorithm that allowed for parameter optimization and model comparisons.

Bayesian Statistical Inference in Ion-Channel Models with Exact Missed Event Correction

The stochastic behavior of single ion channels is most often described as an aggregated continuous-time Markov process with discrete states. For ligand-gated channels each state can represent a different conformation of the channel protein or a different number of bound ligands. Single-channel recordings show only whether the channel is open or shut: states of equal conductance are aggregated, so transitions between them have to be inferred indirectly. The requirement to filter noise from the raw signal further complicates the modeling process, as it limits the time resolution of the data. The consequence of the reduced bandwidth is that openings or shuttings that are shorter than the resolution cannot be observed; these are known as missed events. Postulated models fitted using filtered data must therefore explicitly account for missed events to avoid bias in the estimation of rate parameters and therefore assess parameter identifiability accurately. In this article, we present the first, to our knowledge, Bayesian modeling of ion-channels with exact missed events correction. Bayesian analysis represents uncertain knowledge of the true value of model parameters by considering these parameters as random variables. This allows us to gain a full appreciation of parameter identifiability and uncertainty when estimating values for model parameters. However, Bayesian inference is particularly challenging in this context as the correction for missed events increases the computational complexity of the model likelihood. Nonetheless, we successfully implemented a two-step Markov chain Monte Carlo method that we called "BICME", which performs Bayesian inference in models of realistic complexity. The method is demonstrated on synthetic and real single-channel data from muscle nicotinic acetylcholine channels. We show that parameter uncertainty can be characterized more accurately than with maximum-likelihood methods. Our code for performing inference in these ion channel models is publicly available.

Decoding Single Molecule Time Traces with Dynamic Disorder

Single molecule time trajectories of biomolecules provide glimpses into complex folding landscapes that are difficult to visualize using conventional ensemble measurements. Recent experiments and theoretical analyses have highlighted dynamic disorder in certain classes of biomolecules, whose dynamic pattern of conformational transitions is affected by slower transition dynamics of internal state hidden in a low dimensional projection. A systematic means to analyze such data is, however, currently not well developed. Here we report a new algorithm—Variational Bayes-double chain Markov model (VB-DCMM)—to analyze single molecule time trajectories that display dynamic disorder. The proposed analysis employing VB-DCMM allows us to detect the presence of dynamic disorder, if any, in each trajectory, identify the number of internal states, and estimate transition rates between the internal states as well as the rates of conformational transition within each internal state. Applying VB-DCMM algorithm to single molecule FRET data of H-DNA in 100 mM-Na⁺ solution, followed by data clustering, we show that at least 6 kinetic paths linking 4 distinct internal states are required to correctly interpret the duplex-triplex transitions of H-DNA.

We have developed a new algorithm to better decode single molecule data with dynamic disorder. Our new algorithm, which represents a substantial improvement over other methodologies, can detect the presence of dynamic disorder in each trajectory and quantify the kinetic characteristics of underlying energy landscape. As a model system, we applied our algorithm to the single molecule FRET time traces of H-DNA. While duplex-triplex transitions of H-DNA are conventionally interpreted in terms of two-state kinetics, slowly varying dynamic patterns corresponding to hidden internal states can also be identified from the individual time traces. Our algorithm reveals that at least 4 distinct internal states are required to correctly interpret the data.

Hierarchical Bayesian inference for ion channel screening dose-response data

Dose-response (or 'concentration-effect') relationships commonly occur in biological and pharmacological systems and are well characterised by Hill curves. These curves are described by an equation with two parameters: the inhibitory concentration 50% (IC50); and the Hill coefficient. Typically just the 'best fit' parameter values are reported in the literature. Here we introduce a Python-based software tool, PyHillFit , and describe the underlying Bayesian inference methods that it uses, to infer probability distributions for these parameters as well as the level of experimental observation noise. The tool also allows for hierarchical fitting, characterising the effect of inter-experiment variability. We demonstrate the use of the tool on a recently published dataset on multiple ion channel inhibition by multiple drug compounds. We compare the maximum likelihood, Bayesian and hierarchical Bayesian approaches. We then show how uncertainty in dose-response inputs can be characterised and propagated into a cardiac action potential simulation to give a probability distribution on model outputs.

Hierarchical Bayesian inference for ion channel screening dose-response data

Dose-response (or ‘concentration-effect’) relationships commonly occur in biological and pharmacological systems and are well characterised by Hill curves. These curves are described by an equation with two parameters: the inhibitory concentration 50% (IC50); and the Hill coefficient. Typically just the ‘best fit’ parameter values are reported in the literature. Here we introduce a Python-based software tool, PyHillFit , and describe the underlying Bayesian inference methods that it uses, to infer probability distributions for these parameters as well as the level of experimental observation noise. The tool also allows for hierarchical fitting, characterising the effect of inter-experiment variability. We demonstrate the use of the tool on a recently published dataset on multiple ion channel inhibition by multiple drug compounds. We compare the maximum likelihood, Bayesian and hierarchical Bayesian approaches. We then show how uncertainty in dose-response inputs can be characterised and propagated into a cardiac action potential simulation to give a probability distribution on model outputs.

Modelling modal gating of ion channels with hierarchical Markov models

Many ion channels spontaneously switch between different levels of activity. Although this behaviour known as modal gating has been observed for a long time it is currently not well understood. Despite the fact that appropriately representing activity changes is essential for accurately capturing time course data from ion channels, systematic approaches for modelling modal gating are currently not available. In this paper, we develop a modular approach for building such a model in an iterative process. First, stochastic switching between modes and stochastic opening and closing within modes are represented in separate aggregated Markov models. Second, the continuous-time hierarchical Markov model, a new modelling framework proposed here, then enables us to combine these components so that in the integrated model both mode switching as well as the kinetics within modes are appropriately represented. A mathematical analysis reveals that the behaviour of the hierarchical Markov model naturally depends on the properties of its components. We also demonstrate how a hierarchical Markov model can be parametrized using experimental data and show that it provides a better representation than a previous model of the same dataset. Because evidence is increasing that modal gating reflects underlying molecular properties of the channel protein, it is likely that biophysical processes are better captured by our new approach than in earlier models.

Computing rates of Markov models of voltage-gated ion channels by inverting partial differential equations governing the probability density functions of the conducting and non-conducting states

Markov models are ubiquitously used to represent the function of single ion channels. However, solving the inverse problem to construct a Markov model of single channel dynamics from bilayer or patch-clamp recordings remains challenging, particularly for channels involving complex gating processes. Methods for solving the inverse problem are generally based on data from voltage clamp measurements. Here, we describe an alternative approach to this problem based on measurements of voltage traces. The voltage traces define probability density functions of the functional states of an ion channel. These probability density functions can also be computed by solving a deterministic system of partial differential equations. The inversion is based on tuning the rates of the Markov models used in the deterministic system of partial differential equations such that the solution mimics the properties of the probability density function gathered from (pseudo) experimental data as well as possible. The optimization is done by defining a cost function to measure the difference between the deterministic solution and the solution based on experimental data. By evoking the properties of this function, it is possible to infer whether the rates of the Markov model are identifiable by our method. We present applications to Markov model well-known from the literature.

Uncertainty and variability in computational and mathematical models of cardiac physiology

KEY POINTS

Mathematical and computational models of cardiac physiology have been an integral component of cardiac electrophysiology since its inception, and are collectively known as the Cardiac Physiome. We identify and classify the numerous sources of variability and uncertainty in model formulation, parameters and other inputs that arise from both natural variation in experimental data and lack of knowledge. The impact of uncertainty on the outputs of Cardiac Physiome models is not well understood, and this limits their utility as clinical tools. We argue that incorporating variability and uncertainty should be a high priority for the future of the Cardiac Physiome. We suggest investigating the adoption of approaches developed in other areas of science and engineering while recognising unique challenges for the Cardiac Physiome; it is likely that novel methods will be necessary that require engagement with the mathematics and statistics community.

ABSTRACT

The Cardiac Physiome effort is one of the most mature and successful applications of mathematical and computational modelling for describing and advancing the understanding of physiology. After five decades of development, physiological cardiac models are poised to realise the promise of translational research via clinical applications such as drug development and patient-specific approaches as well as ablation, cardiac resynchronisation and contractility modulation therapies. For models to be included as a vital component of the decision process in safety-critical applications, rigorous assessment of model credibility will be required. This White Paper describes one aspect of this process by identifying and classifying sources of variability and uncertainty in models as well as their implications for the application and development of cardiac models. We stress the need to understand and quantify the sources of variability and uncertainty in model inputs, and the impact of model structure and complexity and their consequences for predictive model outputs. We propose that the future of the Cardiac Physiome should include a probabilistic approach to quantify the relationship of variability and uncertainty of model inputs and outputs.

A primer on Bayesian inference for biophysical systems

Bayesian inference is a powerful statistical paradigm that has gained popularity in many fields of science, but adoption has been somewhat slower in biophysics. Here, I provide an accessible tutorial on the use of Bayesian methods by focusing on example applications that will be familiar to biophysicists. I first discuss the goals of Bayesian inference and show simple examples of posterior inference using conjugate priors. I then describe Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling and, in particular, discuss Gibbs sampling and Metropolis random walk algorithms with reference to detailed examples. These Bayesian methods (with the aid of Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling) provide a generalizable way of rigorously addressing parameter inference and identifiability for arbitrarily complicated models.

Uncertainty and variability in models of the cardiac action potential: Can we build trustworthy models?

Cardiac electrophysiology models have been developed for over 50 years, and now include detailed descriptions of individual ion currents and sub-cellular calcium handling. It is commonly accepted that there are many uncertainties in these systems, with quantities such as ion channel kinetics or expression levels being difficult to measure or variable between samples. Until recently, the original approach of describing model parameters using single values has been retained, and consequently the majority of mathematical models in use today provide point predictions, with no associated uncertainty.

In recent years, statistical techniques have been developed and applied in many scientific areas to capture uncertainties in the quantities that determine model behaviour, and to provide a distribution of predictions which accounts for this uncertainty. In this paper we discuss this concept, which is termed uncertainty quantification, and consider how it might be applied to cardiac electrophysiology models.

We present two case studies in which probability distributions, instead of individual numbers, are inferred from data to describe quantities such as maximal current densities. Then we show how these probabilistic representations of model parameters enable probabilities to be placed on predicted behaviours. We demonstrate how changes in these probability distributions across data sets offer insight into which currents cause beat-to-beat variability in canine APs. We conclude with a discussion of the challenges that this approach entails, and how it provides opportunities to improve our understanding of electrophysiology.

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Uncertainty and variability in action potential models can be quantified.

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A probabilistic method for inferring maximal current densities is developed and applied.

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We use this to infer the currents responsible for canine beat-to-beat variability.

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Emulation of mathematical models provides rich information at low computational cost.

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The importance of considering uncertainty and variability in future is discussed.

Hodgkin-Huxley revisited: reparametrization and identifiability analysis of the classic action potential model with approximate Bayesian methods

As cardiac cell models become increasingly complex, a correspondingly complex 'genealogy' of inherited parameter values has also emerged. The result has been the loss of a direct link between model parameters and experimental data, limiting both reproducibility and the ability to re-fit to new data. We examine the ability of approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to infer parameter distributions in the seminal action potential model of Hodgkin and Huxley, for which an immediate and documented connection to experimental results exists. The ability of ABC to produce tight posteriors around the reported values for the gating rates of sodium and potassium ion channels validates the precision of this early work, while the highly variable posteriors around certain voltage dependency parameters suggests that voltage clamp experiments alone are insufficient to constrain the full model. Despite this, Hodgkin and Huxley's estimates are shown to be competitive with those produced by ABC, and the variable behaviour of posterior parametrized models under complex voltage protocols suggests that with additional data the model could be fully constrained. This work will provide the starting point for a full identifiability analysis of commonly used cardiac models, as well as a template for informative, data-driven parametrization of newly proposed models.

Analyzing single-molecule time series via nonparametric Bayesian inference

The ability to measure the properties of proteins at the single-molecule level offers an unparalleled glimpse into biological systems at the molecular scale. The interpretation of single-molecule time series has often been rooted in statistical mechanics and the theory of Markov processes. While existing analysis methods have been useful, they are not without significant limitations including problems of model selection and parameter nonidentifiability. To address these challenges, we introduce the use of nonparametric Bayesian inference for the analysis of single-molecule time series. These methods provide a flexible way to extract structure from data instead of assuming models beforehand. We demonstrate these methods with applications to several diverse settings in single-molecule biophysics. This approach provides a well-constrained and rigorously grounded method for determining the number of biophysical states underlying single-molecule data.