Predicting survival in thermal injury: A systematic review of methodology of composite prediction models

Cumulative sum (CUSUM) analysis: A 10 year experience of outcome monitoring in a regional burn centre

INTRODUCTION

Outcome monitoring can identify fluctuations in healthcare. Cumulative sum (CUSUM) analysis can detect when mortality deviates from expected, allowing early intervention through targeted audit. We present a 10-year experience of the prospective use of CUSUM methodology in a regional burn centre.

METHOD

Prospective outcome monitoring was conducted for all admissions to the intensive care unit between 2012 and 2022. The revised Baux score was used for mortality risk prediction. Risk-adjusted CUSUM charts tracked mortality against that predicted by the revised Baux score. Deviations from expected outcomes triggered detailed structured analysis. Learning outcomes were identified from internal and external governance groups.

RESULTS

CUSUM analysis was triggered on eight occasions: one paediatric (excess deaths), six adult (four excess survivors, two excess deaths) and one elderly (excess survivors). Detailed analysis identified areas for continuous improvement and positive themes from excess survivors.

CONCLUSION

The use of CUSUM as an early warning trigger stimulates assessment of practice and critical appraisal of factors contributing to unexpected mortality or survival. The revised Baux score at its foundation needs to be carefully considered but remains a valid model. One benefit is positive reinforcement of team cohesion and morale during periods of care excellence leading to excess survivors.

Factors Associated with the Rehabilitation of the Older Adult Burn Patient

The number of older people is increasing and as a result so will the number of older adult patients who present with a burn injury. There are distinct differences between older and younger burn patients, particularly with respect to skin anatomy and physiology and frailty. These are 2 important factors that influence the rehabilitation efforts with respect to older adult burn patients. There has been minimal work done studying the specific rehabilitation of older adult burn patients. More work is needed to fully understand the rehabilitation needs of older adult burn patients.

Composite predictive models for asthma exacerbations or asthma deterioration in pediatric asthmatic patients: A systematic review of the literature

A variety of factors have shown to be useful in predicting which children are at high risk for future asthma exacerbations, some of them combined into composite predictive models. The objective of the present review was to systematically identify all the available published composite predictive models developed for predicting which children are at high risk for future asthma exacerbations or asthma deterioration. A systematic search of the literature was performed to identify studies in which a composite predictive model developed for predicting which children are at high risk for future asthma exacerbations or asthma deterioration was described. Methodological quality assessment was performed using accepted criteria for prediction rules and prognostic models. A total of 18 articles, describing a total of 17 composite predictive models were identified and included in the review. The number of predictors included in the models ranged from 2-149. Upon analyzing the content of the models, use of healthcare services for asthma and prescribed or dispensed asthma medications were the most frequently used items (in 8/17, 47.0% of the models). Seven (41.2%) models fulfilled all the quality criteria considered in our evaluation. The identified models may help clinicians dealing with asthmatic children to identify which children are at a higher risk for future asthma exacerbations or asthma deterioration, therefore targeting and/or reinforcing specific interventions for these children in an attempt to prevent exacerbations or deterioration of the disease.

Massive Burn Injuries: Characteristics and Outcomes From a Single Institution

Massive burn injuries are a unique patient population with unique treatment paradigms. Data from 155 adult patients, admitted from 2009 to 2019, with >50% total body surface area burns (TBSA) were collected and analyzed. Average burn size was 70% TBSA and 63% had a concomitant inhalation injury. Approximately 30% of patients (46/155) transitioned to comfort care-only measures within 24 hours of admission. Standard treatment patients were younger (37 ± 13 vs 60 ± 19 years; p < .00001), male (94% vs 28%; p = .001) and had smaller TBSA (66 ± 13 vs 80 ± 16; p < .00001). Of the standard treatment group, 72 (66%) survived to discharge. Survivors had smaller TBSA (64 ± 13 vs 71 ± 13; p = .003), less third-degree TBSA (48 ± 25 vs 71 ± 13; p = .003) and lower incidence of renal failure requiring dialysis (22% vs 73%, p < .00001). Multivariate regression analysis showed that age (OR 1.05; p = .025), total TBSA (OR 1.07; p = .005), and renal failure (OR 10.2; p = .00005) were independently associated with mortality. Inhalation injury was not significantly associated with mortality. About 23% (35/155) of patients had a psychiatric condition on admission and 19% (30/155) of patients were burned attempting suicide. Patients with psychiatric conditions spent more time in the hospital (62 vs 30 days; p = .004), more time on ventilator (31 vs 12 days; p = .046), underwent more surgery (4 vs 2 operations, p = .03), and were less likely to die (34% vs 59%; p = .02). In summary, age, burn size, and renal failure were independently associated with mortality, with renal failure being the strongest factor. Psychiatric conditions are prevalent pre-injury and tend to require more inpatient care.

Setting the Standard: Using the ABA Burn Registry to Benchmark Risk Adjusted Mortality

Reports of single center experience and studies of larger databases have identified several predictors of burn center mortality, including age, burn size, and inhalation injury. None of these analyses has been broad enough to allow benchmarking across burn centers. The purpose of this study was to derive a reliable, risk-adjusted, statistical model of mortality based on real-life experience at many burn centers in the U.S. We used the American Burn Association 2020 Full Burn Research Dataset, from the Burn Center Quality Platform (BCQP) to identify 130,729 subjects from July 2015 through June 2020 across 103 unique burn centers. We selected 22 predictor variables, from over 50 recorded in the dataset, based on completeness (at least 75% complete required) and clinical significance. We used gradient-boosted regression, a form of machine learning, to predict mortality and compared this to traditional logistic regression. Model performance was evaluated with AUC and PR curves. The CatBoost model achieved a test AUC of 0.980 with an average precision of 0.800. The logistic regression produced an AUC of 0.951 with an average precision of 0.664. While AUC, the measure most reported in the literature, is high for both models, the CatBoost model is markedly more sensitive, leading to a substantial improvement in precision. Using BCQP data, we can predict burn mortality allowing comparison across burn centers participating in BCQP.

The BUrn Mortality Prediction (BUMP) Score - An improved mortality prediction score based on data of the German burn registry

BACKGROUND

Burn injuries constitute the fourth most common injuries globally. Patient outcomes must be currently assessed to provide appropriate patient care with high quality standards. However, existing mortality prediction scoring methods have been shown to lack accuracy in current burn patient populations. Therefore, this study aimed to validate existing scores using current patient data and assess whether new prediction parameters can provide better accuracy.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of the patient data from the German Burn Registry between 2016 and 2019 was performed to evaluate all Abbreviated Burn Severity Index (ABSI) score parameters. All patients over 16 years of age who received intensive care were included. Descriptive statistics and logistic regression analysis were used to identify novel prediction parameters based on the parameters documented at admission and establish a new prediction score, the BUrn Mortality Prediction (BUMP) score. The quality of the new score was subsequently compared to that of the original ABSI, modified ABSI, Galeiras, Revised Baux score and TIMM. The new prediction score was then validated using patient data collected in the German Burn Registry in 2020.

RESULTS

In total, 7276 patients were included. Age; the presence of at least two comorbidities; burn injuries caused by work-related accidents, traffic accidents and suicide attempts; total burn surface area; inhalation trauma and full-thickness burns were identified as independent significant predictors of mortality (p < 0.001). Additionally, we evaluated new age groups to improve prediction accuracy. The number of comorbidities (p < 0.001) and the aetiology (burns occurring at work [p = 0.028], burns caused by traffic accidents [p < 0.001] or burns due to attempted suicide [p < 0.001]) had a significant influence on mortality. The BUMP score, which was developed based on these parameters, showed the best fitness and showed more accurate mortality prediction than all the above-mentioned scores (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.947 [0.939-0.954] compared to 0.926 [0.915-0.936], 0.928 [0.918-0.939], 0.937 [0.928-0.947], 0.939 [0.930-0.948], 0.940 [0.932-0.949] respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

A novel score (BUMP score) was developed for the purpose of external quality assessment of burn centres participating in the German burn registry, where observed and expected outcomes are compared on a hospital level, and for scientifically applications. The clinical impact of this score and its generalisability to other patient populations needs to be evaluated.

External Validation of Three Burn-Specific Mortality Prediction Models in Adult Burn Patients at a Tertiary Care Hospital in India

Background Several burn-specific mortality prediction models have been formulated and validated in the developed countries. There is a dearth of studies validating these models in the Indian population. Our objective was to validate three such models in the Indian burn patients.

Methods A prospective observational study was performed after ethical clearance on consecutive eligible consenting burn patients. Patient demographics, vitals, and results of hematological workup were collected. Using these. the Abbreviated Burn Severity Index (ABSI), the revised Baux score (rBaux), and the Fatality by Longevity, APACHE II score, Measured extent of burn, and Sex score (FLAMES) were calculated. The discriminative ability of the ABSI, rBaux, and the FLAMES was tested using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve at 30 days and the area under the ROC curve (AUROC) compared. A p-value ≤ 0.05 was considered significant. Probability of death was calculated using these models. Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness of fit test was run.

Results The ABSI (AUROC 0.7497, 95% CI 0.67796–0.82141), rBaux (AUROC 0.7456, 95% CI 0.67059–0.82068) and FLAMES (AUROC 0.7119, 95% CI 0.63209–0.79172), had fair discriminative ability. The Hosmer–Lemeshow test reported that ABSI and rBaux were a good fit for the Indian population, while FLAMES was not a good fit.

Conclusion The ABSI and rBaux had a fair discriminative ability and were a good fit for the adult patients with 30 to 60% thermal and scald burn patients. FLAMES despite having fair discriminative ability was not a good fit for the study population.

Admission Frailty Score Are Associated With Increased Risk of Acute Respiratory Failure and Mortality in Burn Patients 50 and Older

Herein, we assessed the utility of the Canadian Study of Health and Aging Clinical Frailty Scale (CSHA-CFS) to predict burn-specific outcomes. We hypothesized that frail patients are at greater risk for burn-related complications and require increased healthcare support at discharge. Patients 50 years and older admitted to our institution for burn injuries between July 2009 and June 2019 were included. Demographics, comorbidities, pre-injury functional status, injury and hospitalization information, complications (graft loss, acute respiratory failure, and acute kidney disease [AKI]), mortality, and discharge disposition were collected. Multivariate analyses were performed to assess the association between admission frailty scored using the CSHA-CFS and outcomes. P < .05 was considered significant. Eight-hundred fifty-one patients were included, 697 were not frail and 154 were frail. Controlling for Baux scores, sex, race, mechanism of injury, 2nd and 3rd degree burn surface, and inhalation injury, frailty was associated with acute respiratory failure (OR = 2.599 [1.460-4.628], P = .001) and with mortality (OR = 6.080 [2.316-15.958]; P < .001). Frailty was also associated with discharge to skilled nursing facility, rehabilitation, or long-term acute care facilities (OR = 3.135 [1.784-5.508], P < .001), and to hospice (OR = 8.694 [1.646-45.938], P = .011) when compared to home without healthcare services. Frailty is associated with increased risk of acute respiratory failure, mortality, and requiring increased healthcare support post-discharge. Our data suggest that frailty can be used as a tool to predict morbidity and mortality and for goals of care discussions for the burn patient.

Clinical decision-support for acute burn referral and triage at specialized centres - Contribution from routine and digital health tools

BACKGROUND

Specialized care is crucial for severe burn injuries whereas minor burns should be handled at point-of-care. Misdiagnosis is common which leads to overburdening the system and to a lack of treatment for others due to resources shortage.

OBJECTIVES

The overarching aim was to evaluate four decision-support tools for diagnosis, referral, and triage of acute burns injuries in South Africa and Sweden: referral criteria, mortality prediction scores, image-based remote consultation and automated diagnosis.

METHODS

Study I retrospectively assessed adherence to referral criteria of 1165 patients admitted to the paediatric burns centre of the Western Cape of South Africa. Study II assessed mortality prediction of 372 patients admitted to the adults burns centre by evaluating an existing score (ABSI), and by using logistic regression. In study III, an online survey was used to assess the diagnostic accuracy of burn experts' image-based estimations using their smartphone or tablet. In study IV, two deep-learning algorithms were developed using 1105 acute burn images in order to identify the burn, and to classify burn depth.

RESULTS

Adherence to referral criteria was of 93.4%, and the age and severity criteria were associated with patient care. In adults, the ABSI score was a good predictor of mortality which affected a fifth of the patients and which was associated with gender, burn size and referral status. Experts were able to diagnose burn size, and burn depth using handheld devices. Finally, both a wound identifier and a depth classifier algorithm could be developed with relatively high accuracy.

CONCLUSIONS

Altogether the findings inform on the use of four tools along the care trajectory of patients with acute burns by assisting with the diagnosis, referral and triage from point-of-care to burns centres. This will assist with reducing inequities by improving access to the most appropriate care for patients.

Risk Models to Predict Mortality in Burn Patients: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

The predictive capability of various risk assessment models (RAMs) in evaluating the risk of mortality in burn patients is not well established. It is also unclear which RAM provides the highest discriminative ability and presents the highest clinical utility. We pooled all available studies to establish this validity and compare the predictive capability of the various RAMs.

Methods

We reviewed PubMed, MEDLINE, and Embase from their inception up until December 2021 for studies evaluating risk of mortality in burn patients as stratified by RAMs. Data were pooled using random-effect models and presented as area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve.

Results

Thirty-four studies, comprising of a total of 98,610 patients, were included in our analysis. Most studies were found to have a low risk of bias and a good measure of applicability. Nine RAMs were evaluated. We discovered that the classic Baux; the revised Baux; and the Fatality by Longevity, APACHE II score, Measured Extent of burn, and Sex (FLAMES) scores presented with the highest discriminative power with there being no significant difference between the results presented by them [AUROCs (95% CI), 0.92 (0.90-0.95), 0.92 (0.90-0.93), 0.94 (0.91-0.97), respectively, with P < 0.00001 for all].

Conclusions

Many RAMs exist with no consensus on the optimal model to utilize and assess risk of mortality for burn patients. This study is the first systematic review and meta-analysis to compare the current RAMs' discriminative ability to predict mortality in patients with burn injuries. This meta-analysis demonstrated that RAMs designed for assessing mortality in individuals with burns have acceptable to great discriminative capacity, with the classic Baux, revised Baux, and FLAMES demonstrating superior discriminative performance in predicting death. FLAMES exhibited the highest discriminative ability among the RAMs studied.

Prediction of Mortality after Burn Surgery in Critically Ill Burn Patients Using Machine Learning Models

Severe burns may lead to a series of pathophysiological processes that result in death. Machine learning models that demonstrate prognostic performance can be used to build analytical models to predict postoperative mortality. This study aimed to identify machine learning models with the best diagnostic performance for predicting mortality in critically ill burn patients after burn surgery, and then compare them. Clinically important features for predicting mortality in patients after burn surgery were selected using a random forest (RF) regressor. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and classifier accuracy were evaluated to compare the predictive accuracy of different machine learning algorithms, including RF, adaptive boosting, decision tree, linear support vector machine, and logistic regression. A total of 731 patients met the inclusion and exclusion criteria. The 90-day mortality of the critically ill burn patients after burn surgery was 27.1% (198/731). RF showed the highest AUC (0.922, 95% confidence interval = 0.902–0.942) among the models, with sensitivity and specificity of 66.2% and 93.8%, respectively. The most significant predictors for mortality after burn surgery as per machine learning models were total body surface area burned, red cell distribution width, and age. The RF algorithm showed the best performance for predicting mortality.

A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation in Patients with Burns

BACKGROUND

Severely burned patients are at high risk for cardiopulmonary failure. Promising studies have stimulated interest in using extracorporeal membrane oxygenation as a potential therapy for burn patients with refractory cardiac and/or respiratory failure. However, the findings from previous studies vary.

METHODS

In this study, the authors conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis using standardized mortality ratios to elucidate the benefits associated with the use of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation in patients with burn and/or inhalation injuries. A literature search was performed, and clinical outcomes in the selected studies were compared.

RESULTS

The meta-analysis found that the observed mortality was significantly higher than the predicted mortality in patients receiving extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (standardized mortality ratio, 2.07; 95 percent CI, 1.04 to 4.14). However, the subgroup of burn patients with inhalation injuries had lower mortality rates compared to their predicted mortality rates (standardized mortality ratio, 0.95; 95 percent CI, 0.52 to 1.73). Other subgroup analyses reported no benefits from extracorporeal membrane oxygenation; however, these results were not statistically significant. Interestingly, the pooled standardized mortality ratio values decreased as the selected patients' revised Baux scores increased (R = -0.92), indicating that the potential benefits from the treatment increased as the severity of patients with burns increased.

CONCLUSIONS

The authors' meta-analysis revealed that burn patients receiving extracorporeal membrane oxygenation treatment were at a higher risk of death. However, select patients, including those with inhalation injuries and those with revised Baux scores over 90, would benefit from the treatment. The authors suggest that burn patients with inhalation injuries or with revised Baux scores exceeding 90 should be considered for the treatment and early transfer to an extracorporeal membrane oxygenation center.

Clinical outcome and comparison of burn injury scoring systems in burn patient in Indonesia

Introduction

The purpose of this study was to explore and compare the performance of four burn injury scoring systems in Indonesia. In a retrospective study, data of all burn patients admitted to the emergency centre (EC) were collected. The following clinical outcome and four burn injury scoring systems were used to assess each patient: Abbreviated Burn Severity Index (ABSI), Belgian Outcome in Burn Injury (BOBI), the Ryan model, and revised Baux Score.

Methods

From April 2017 to April 2018, clinical outcome and burn injury score for every admitted patient were calculated to evaluate burn prognosis. Demographic information, ABSI score, full-thickness total body surface area (TBSA), overall TBSA, hospital stay, and inhalation injury were noted for analysis. Discriminative ability and goodness-of-fit of the prediction models were determined by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and Hosmer–Lemeshow tests.

Results

We included 72 patients (mean age: 40.79 ± 16.30 years, average TBSA: 23.59% ± 24.84). Only 1 (1.4%) of them was diagnosed with inhalation injury. Mortality rate was 25%. Deceased patients had significantly higher mean age, %TBSA, and number of inhalation injuries. The ABSI model with sensitivity was 81.6, specificity was 92.5, accuracy was 87.3 and under the Receiver Operator Characteristics curve (AUC) was 0.93 (SE = 0.03).

Conclusions

The best estimation of predicted mortality was obtained with the ABSI model.

The analysis and accuracy of mortality prediction scores in burn patients admitted to the intensive care burn unit (ICBU)

Background

To date, multiple scoring systems have been utilised in predicting outcomes in burn patients. The aim of this study is to determine the accuracy of three established scoring systems used for burn patients admitted to the intensive care unit and to determine the risk factors associated with poor outcomes.

Methods

A total of 211 patients who were admitted to the ICBU in a tertiary care centre in Kuwait from January 2017 to December 2019 were analysed retrospectively. Data were collected using patient medical records. The FLAMES, BOBI and revised Baux scores were calculated, and the survivor and non-survivor scores of patients were analysed to determine the sensitivity, specificity and Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristics (AUROC) of the different scoring modalities.

Results

The majority of the analysed population were male patients (165/211) and the most common mechanism of burns was flame burns (166/211). Most of the patients admitted to the ICBU survived (188/211). Female gender was associated with a higher mortality rate, whilst inhalational injury and co-morbidities were not associated with a higher mortality rate. The revised Baux score had a sensitivity value of 96% and 90% specificity. The BOBI score had a sensitivity of 91% and 76% specificity. The FLAMES score had a sensitivity of 96% and the highest specificity of 99%. All 3 scores had AUC values exceeding 90%.

Conclusion

Statistically, FLAMES score had the highest accuracy of predicting outcomes in burn patients, however all three scores demonstrated acceptable predictive rates when it comes to practical application, permitting the use of either one of the studied scores with satisfactory prognostic outcomes.

Predicting Burn Mortality Using a Simple Novel Prediction Model

Background  Prediction of outcome for burn patients allows appropriate allocation of resources and prognostication. There is a paucity of simple to use burn-specific mortality prediction models which consider both endogenous and exogenous factors. Our objective was to create such a model.

Methods  A prospective observational study was performed on consecutive eligible consenting burns patients. Demographic data, total burn surface area (TBSA), results of complete blood count, kidney function test, and arterial blood gas analysis were collected. The quantitative variables were compared using the unpaired student t -test/nonparametric Mann Whitney U-test. Qualitative variables were compared using the ⊠2-test/Fischer exact test. Binary logistic regression analysis was done and a logit score was derived and simplified. The discrimination of these models was tested using the receiver operating characteristic curve; calibration was checked using the Hosmer—Lemeshow goodness of fit statistic, and the probability of death calculated. Validation was done using the bootstrapping technique in 5,000 samples. A p -value of <0.05 was considered significant.

Results  On univariate analysis TBSA ( p <0.001) and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score ( p = 0.004) were found to be independent predictors of mortality. TBSA (odds ratio [OR] 1.094, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.037–1.155, p = 0.001) and APACHE II (OR 1.166, 95% CI 1.034–1.313, p = 0.012) retained significance on binary logistic regression analysis. The prediction model devised performed well (area under the receiver operating characteristic 0.778, 95% CI 0.681–0.875).

Conclusion  The prediction of mortality can be done accurately at the bedside using TBSA and APACHE II score.

Serum albumin concentration on admission as a predictor of morbidity and mortality in patients with burn injuries

Efforts have been made to determine new predictors of morbidity and mortality in patients with severe burn injuries. This prospective cohort study aimed to determine the association of serum albumin concentration on admission and renal failure, pulmonary infection, sepsis, and death in patients with burn injuries. We included 141 patients, aged >18 years, who were admitted to our institution between April and August 2018. Among them, 59.1% were male and 83.8% had burns covering <20% of the body surface area. Scalds were the most common cause of burns (34.8%). Twelve patients died, of whom eight (66.6%) had an Abbreviated Burn Severity Index (ABSI) ≥8. Patients with serum albumin ≤2.2 g/dL had a higher mortality rate than those with >2.2 g/dL (odds ratios [OR]: 18.7; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.9-70.8). Serum albumin ≤2.2 g/dL was also significantly associated with pulmonary infection (OR: 13.1, 95%CI: 3.8-45.7), renal failure (OR: 30.2, 95% CI: 7.4-122.3), and sepsis (OR: 16.9, 95% CI: 4.9-58.3). Serum albumin concentration cut-points and ABSIs were determined to be death predictors using areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs). The AUCs with albumin or ABSI alone were 0.89 (95% CI: 0.79-0.98) and 0.92 (95% CI: 0.87-0.96), respectively. The AUC including both albumin and ABSI was 0.96 (95% CI: 0.90-0.98), indicating that the combination is a better death predictor than either measure alone. We confirmed that burn patients with a serum albumin concentration ≤2.2 g/dL on admission have substantially increased morbidity and mortality.

Age-dependent influence of premorbid underweight status on mortality in severe burn patients: An administrative database study

PURPOSE

To examine the associations between premorbid nutritional status and in-hospital mortality in severe burn patients according to age in Japan.

METHODS

We retrospectively extracted the data of 14,345 patients aged 18-84 years admitted for burns from April 1, 2014, to March 31, 2018, using the Japanese Diagnosis Procedure Combination database. The exclusion criteria were out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, death in the emergency room, readmission, and planned admission. We collected data on age, sex, height, weight, comorbidities, burn index, and mechanical ventilation use and performed age-stratified multilevel logistic regression analyses to estimate associations between premorbid body mass index (BMI) and in-hospital mortality.

RESULTS

We analyzed 2968 patients with a burn index ≥10, including 831 elderly aged 75-84 years. In patients aged 18-74 years, being underweight (BMI < 18.5) significantly decreased mortality (0.34 [0.15-0.77]; P = 0.010). In contrast, in patients aged 75-84 years, being underweight significantly increased mortality (2.11 [1.05-4.25]; P = 0.036). Being overweight (BMI >25) increased mortality in both age groups, but not significantly.

CONCLUSIONS

The results suggest that pre-morbidly underweight elderly patients aged 75-84 years with severe burns have high mortality risks. Further research is needed to identify optimal care strategies for this population.

Incidence of Laryngotracheal Stenosis after Thermal Inhalation Airway Injury

Inhalation injury is independently associated with burn mortality, yet little information is available on the incidence, risk factors, or functional outcomes of thermal injury to the airway. In patients with thermal inhalation injury, we sought to define the incidence of laryngotracheal stenosis (LTS), delineate risk factors associated with LTS development, and assess long-term tracheostomy dependence as a proxy for laryngeal function. Retrospective cohort study of adult patients treated for thermal inhalation injury at a single institution burn critical care unit from 2012 to 2017. Eligible patients' records were assessed for LTS (laryngeal, subglottic, or tracheal stenosis). Patient characteristics, burn injury characteristics, and treatment-specific covariates were assessed. Descriptive statistics, Mann-Whitney U-tests, odds ratio, and chi-square tests compared LTS versus non-LTS groups. Of 129 patients with thermal inhalation injury during the study period, 8 (6.2%) developed LTS. When compared with the non-LTS group, patients with LTS had greater mean TBSA (mean 30.3, Interquartile Range 7-57.5 vs 10.5, Interquartile Range 0-15.12, P = .01), higher grade of inhalation injury (mean 2.63 vs 1.80, P = .05), longer duration of intubation (12.63 vs 5.44; P < .001), and greater inflammatory response (mean white blood cell count on presentation 25.8 vs 14.9, P = .02, mean hyperglycemia on presentation 176.4 vs 136.9, P = .01). LTS patients had a significantly higher rate of tracheostomy dependence at last follow-up (50 vs 1.7%, P < .001). Six percent of patients with thermal inhalation injury develop LTS. LTS was associated with more severe thermal airway injury, longer duration of intubation, and more severe initial host inflammation. Patients with inhalation injury and LTS are at high risk for tracheostomy dependence. In burn patients with thermal inhalation injury, laryngeal evaluation and directed therapy should be incorporated early into multispecialty pathways of care.

Clinical Value of Debriding Enzymes as an Adjunct to Standard Early Surgical Excision in Human Burns: A Systematic Review

Burns are a significant public health burden worldwide. In addition to those who die, millions remain with life-threatening deformities and disabilities resulting in stigma and rejection. Surgical excision is currently the standard of care for removing necrotic tissues in burn wounds to prepare the wound bed for grafting or enhancing the healing process. However, there is a growing interest on enzymatic debridement as an adjunct therapy in burn wounds. The aim of this study was to investigate clinical trials using debriding agents for burn wound in humans in a systematic review. This was a systematic review of electronic databases including CINAHL, PubMed, Ovid Medline, Web of Science, Google Scholar, and Embase from January 1969 to February 2019. The study protocol was registered in PROSPERO registry. The following keywords were searched: "burn wounds", "enzymatic debridement", "papain", "papain-urea", "pine apple", "Bromelain", "collagenases", "Nexobrid", "Debrase", "Debridase", "Actinidia deliciosa", "Sutilains", "Debrace", "piruvat acid". Those studies fulfilling the inclusion and exclusion criteria with low score of bias based on Cochrane Bias Tool were reviewed. Sixteen investigations fulfilled our inclusion criteria to be reviewed. Six, seven, and three clinical trials on humans were found regarding collagenase, bromelain, and miscellaneous agents. Collagenase has been reported to be effective in burns below 25% of TBSA, especially in outpatients' clinics. However, Nexobrid has been shown to be effective in deep burns and decreases the percentage of graft without significant adverse effects. There was not enough evidence supporting the clinical values of Papain, Sutilains, Urea, etc. Surgical excision still remains the standard of care for burn wounds debridement. However, enzymatic debridement, especially Bromelain might help to reduce sessions for surgical debridement or area under graft as an adjunct treatment. Despite the fact, more studies with larger sample sizes and with less conflicts of interest are needed to clearly elucidate the exact role of Bromelain.

Severe burn injury: Body Mass Index and the Baux score

OBJECTIVE

The revised Baux score (age total body surface area (TBSA) burned and inhalation injury)) is predictive of mortality in burn patients. Our study objective was to assess whether the addition of body mass index (BMI) to the revised Baux score would be of value. We posited that increasing BMI follows a pattern similar to age and TBSA in the revised Baux score after severe burn injury.

METHODS

Patient data from the burn registry was queried for patients admitted between 1/1/2013 to 8/31/2019. Patients 12 years or older with a TBSA of 20% or greater burn were included. Inpatient outcomes were analyzed based on BMI.

RESULTS

56 of 1365 patients met inclusion criteria. Mean age of the study population was 48.25 years and 64.3% of patients were male. Median BMI was 25.8 and median TBSA was 26.5. Inhalation injury was present in 44.6% (25/56) of patients. Median hospital length of stay (LOS) and ICU LOS were 21.5 and 17 days respectively. On bivariate analysis, non-survivors had higher TBSA (41.5% vs 25.5%, p = 0.034), more inhalation injury (83.3%, 10/12 vs 34.8%, 15/43 p = 0.003) and higher complication rates (91.6%, 11/12 vs 59.1 %, 25/43, p = 0.043). Survivors also had higher BMI (28.2 vs 23, p = 0.003) and increased hospital LOS (24 vs 5.5, p = 0.003). Automatic model fit in binary logistic regression showed a negative relationship between BMI and mortality.

CONCLUSION

We found a negative relationship between BMI and mortality. Pre-obesity appears to have a protective role, but BMI was not found to be a useful addition to the revised Baux score. Larger sample sizes may be of benefit a for a for a more definitive understanding of the role of BMI with regards to burn survival.

Comparison of prognostic models for burn patients: A retrospective nationwide registry study

BACKGROUND

Prognostic burn index (PBI) is a unique model utilized to predict mortality of burn patients in Japan. In contrast, other prediction models are rarely used in Japan, and their accuracy and predictive value are unknown. The present study aimed to compare commonly used burn prediction models and determine the appropriate model for mortality prediction in Japanese burn patients.

METHODS

Japanese burn patients registered in the nationwide burn registry of Japanese Society for Burn Injury between April 1, 2011 and March 31, 2019 were reviewed retrospectively. The prognostic performance of PBI was compared with Baux score, revised Baux score, abbreviated burn severity index (ABSI), Ryan score and Belgian outcome in burn injury score (BOBI). The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality.

RESULTS

The study included 7911 acute burn patients. The overall mortality rate was 10.7%, the median age was 52 (interquartile range, 26-72) years, and the median % total body surface area was 7% (interquartile range, 3%-17%). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve for PBI, Baux score, ABSI, revised Baux score, Ryan score, and BOBI were 0.940 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.931-0.948), 0.943 (95% CI: 0.934-0.951; p=0.002), 0.945 (95% CI: 0.937-0.953; p=0.058), 0.946 (95% CI: 0.937-0.953; p=0.002), 0.859 (95% CI: 0.846-0.870; p<0.001), and 0.896 (95% CI: 0.885-0.905; p<0.001), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Although the performance of PBI was good, it was not superior to the Baux score, revised Baux score, and ABSI. These three scores have a high prognostic accuracy. Hence, they are considered as alternative burn prognostic scores in Japan. The Baux score was an optimal prognostic model for patients with burns in Japan.

Is Artificial Intelligence Better Than Human Clinicians in Predicting Patient Outcomes?

In contrast with medical imaging diagnostics powered by artificial intelligence (AI), in which deep learning has led to breakthroughs in recent years, patient outcome prediction poses an inherently challenging problem because it focuses on events that have not yet occurred. Interestingly, the performance of machine learning-based patient outcome prediction models has rarely been compared with that of human clinicians in the literature. Human intuition and insight may be sources of underused predictive information that AI will not be able to identify in electronic data. Both human and AI predictions should be investigated together with the aim of achieving a human-AI symbiosis that synergistically and complementarily combines AI with the predictive abilities of clinicians.

Modified abbreviated burn severity index as a predictor of in-hospital mortality in patients with inhalation injury: development and validation using independent cohorts

PURPOSE

The ability to accurately evaluate the severity of inhalation injury can help to optimize patient care. However, there is no accepted severity grading system, especially for inhalation injury.

METHODS

We screened a multicenter burn registry and included adult patients who required oxygen treatment or mechanical ventilation. After the patient data were divided into development and validation cohorts, missing values were replaced with multiple imputation. Twelve potential predictors were analyzed using multivariate logistic regression to identify prognostic variables for in-hospital mortality and scores were assigned to each predictor based on odds ratios to develop the Modified Abbreviated Burn Severity Index, mABSI. The mABSI was validated using c-statistics and calibration curves.

RESULTS

We randomly assigned 1377 and 919 patients to the development and validation cohorts, respectively. Age, self-inflicted injury, cutaneous burn area, and mechanical ventilation requirement were identified as independent predictors, and the mABSI (1-17 scale) was, thus, developed. The mABSI has a high discriminatory power (c-statistic = 0.94; 95% CI 0.92-0.97), and both estimated and observed in-hospital mortalities increased from 1% at score ≤ 5 to almost 100% at score ≥ 14 with linear calibration plots.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed and validated the mABSI which accurately predicts in-hospital mortality.

Nurse Staffing, the Clinical Work Environment, and Burn Patient Mortality

The complexity of modern burn care requires an integrated team of specialty providers working together to achieve the best possible outcome for each burn survivor. Nurses are central to many aspects of a burn survivor's care, including physiologic monitoring, fluid resuscitation, pain management, infection prevention, complex wound care, and rehabilitation. Research suggests that in general, hospital nursing resources, defined as nurse staffing and the quality of the work environment, relate to patient mortality. Still, the relationship between those resources and burn mortality has not been previously examined. This study used a multivariable risk-adjusted regression model and a linked, cross-sectional claims database of more than 14,000 adults (≥18 years) thermal burn patients admitted to 653 hospitals to evaluate these relationships. Hospital nursing resources were independently reported by more than 29,000 bedside nurses working in the study hospitals. In the high burn patient-volume hospitals (≥100/y) that care for the most severe burn injuries, each additional patient added to a nurse's workload is associated with 30% higher odds of mortality (P < .05, 95% CI: 1.02-1.94), and improving the work environment is associated with 28% lower odds of death (P < .05, 95% CI: 0.07-0.99). Nursing resources are vital in the care of burn patients and are a critical, yet previously omitted, variable in the evaluation of burn outcomes. Attention to nurse staffing and improvement to the nurse work environment is warranted to promote optimal recovery for burn survivors. Given the influence of nursing on mortality, future research evaluating burn patient outcomes should account for nursing resources.

Palliation, end-of-life care and burns; concepts, decision-making and communication - A narrative review

Palliative care is the turn from cure as the priority of care to symptom relief and comfort care. Although very little is published in the burn literature on palliative care, guidelines can be gleaned from the general literature on palliative care, particularly for acute surgical and critical care patients. Palliative care may be started because of futility, on request of the patient, or because of limited resources. The SPIKES acronym is a useful guide to avoid errors in communication with terminal patients and their relatives.

Relationship Between Patient Characteristics and Number of Procedures as well as Length of Stay for Patients Surviving Severe Burn Injuries: Analysis of the American Burn Association National Burn Repository

This study establishes important, national benchmarks for burn centers to assess length of stay (LOS) and number of procedures across patient profiles. We examined the relationship between patient characteristics such as age and total body surface area (TBSA) burned and number of procedures and LOS in the United States, using the American Burn Association National Burn Repository (NBR) database version 8.0 (2002–2011). Among 21,175 surviving burn patients (TBSA > 10–60%), mean age was 33 years, and mean injury size was 19.9% TBSA. Outcomes included the number of debridement, excision, autograft procedures, and LOS. Independent variables considered were: age (linear, squared, and cubed to account for nonlinearity), TBSA, TBSAs of partial-thickness and mixed/full-thickness burns, sex, hospital-acquired infection, other infection, inhalation injury, and diabetes status. Regression methods included a mixed-effects model for LOS and ordinary least squares for number of procedures. A backward stepwise procedure (P <0.2) was used to select variables. Number of excision and autografting procedures increased with TBSA; however, this relationship did not hold for debridement. After adjusting for sex, age, and comorbidities, predicted LOS for adults (18+) was 12.1, 21.7, 32.2, 43.7, and 56.1 days for 10, 20, 30, 40, and 50% TBSA, respectively. Similarly, predicted LOS for pediatrics (age < 18) was 8.1, 18.8, 33.2, 47.6, and 56.1 days for the same TBSA groups, respectively. While average estimates for adults (1.12 days) and pediatrics (1.01) are close to the one day/TBSA rule-of-thumb, consideration of other important patient and burn features in the NBR can better refine predictions for LOS.

Burn wound care of civilians in Sahel region by French military surgical teams: ethical challenges and future training requirements

The primary mission of the French military surgical teams deployed in external operations in the Sahel is to provide support for combatants. However, many of their activities and of the limited human and material resources allocated to them are devoted to providing free medical assistance to the local population. The French military surgical teams are very often expected to take care of serious burns for the benefit of civil populations because of the absence of dedicated civilian medical structures. Surgical teams are faced with a necessary triage of patients to be taken care of because of the discrepancy between the high demand for care and the means at their disposal. But the triage can lead to ethical dilemmas when the values that come into play in the decision contradict each other or when they run up against the quota of available human and material resources, as well as the interests of the military institution. The challenge is then to become aware of these dilemmas in this particular context. A discussion of these ethical dilemmas would help carers to avoid developing fatalistic attitudes or developing chronic pathologies due to unresolved or unconscious predicaments. Solutions are proposed that place ethical reflection at the heart of the practices during external operations by the French surgical teams. The ethics of discussion must bring together all players in care management and also the military authorities, before, during and after the missions. Training programmes for ethical reflection would benefit surgical teams and help them approach and become aware of the dilemmas they will necessarily face.

Predictive value of quick SOFA and revised Baux scores in burn patients

Several scoring systems, such as the Baux score, help predict outcomes in burn patients. The quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score (composed of a respiratory rate of 22/min or greater, systolic blood pressure of 100 mmHg or less, and altered mental status) is a new bedside index proposed to help identify patients with suspected infection at risk of complications. We hypothesized that qSOFA scores would be associated with in-hospital mortality, ICU admission, and length of stay (LOS) in patients with burns. We performed a retrospective review of all burn patients admitted between January 2010-March 2017 at an academic, suburban, hospital with a regional burn center. qSOFA scores were calculated as 1 point each for GCS<15, RR≥22, and SBP≤100. A qSOFA value of>2 was considered high risk. Revised Baux (rBaux) scores were calculated as age +%TBSA burned +17 (if inhalation injury). A rBaux score >140 was considered high risk. Univariate, multivariate and receiver operating characteristics analyses were performed to compare qSOFA and rBaux scores. There were 1039 burn admissions during the study period. Mean age was 30 ± 24 years, 66% were male. Mean TBSA was 10 ± 12%, mean injury severity score was 5 ± 8. Mean hospital LOS was 8 ± 24 days, 22 patients (2.1%) died. qSOFA scores were associated with mortality and ICU admission. Of all patients, 80 were high risk by qSOFA and 7 by Baux scores. ROC characteristics of qSOFA and Baux scores for predicting death were sensitivity 36% vs. 32%, specificity 94% vs. 100%, PPV 13% vs. 100%, and NPV 98% vs. 99% respectively. The AUC for qSOFA (0.68 [95% CI, 0.54-0.81]) was lower than for Baux (0.99 [95%CI, 0.99-1.00]). Youden's index identified an optimal cutoff of 85 on the Baux score yielding sensitivity 100%, specificity 94%, PPV 27%, and NPV 100% for mortality. Our results indicate that while qSOFA scores were associated with outcomes, a rBaux score had greater predictive value. The optimal rBaux score for predicting all mortality and ICU admission was 85.

Admission factors associated with the in-hospital mortality of burns patients in resource-constrained settings: A two-year retrospective investigation in a South African adult burns centre

OBJECTIVE

Little is known concerning the factors associated with in-hospital mortality of trauma patients in resource-constrained settings, not least in burns centres. We investigated this question in the adult burns centre at Tygerberg Hospital in Cape Town. We further assessed whether the Abbreviated Burn Severity Index (ABSI) is an accurate predictive score of mortality in this setting.

METHODS

Medical records of all patients admitted with fresh burns over a two-year period (2015 and 2016) were scrutinized to obtain data on patient, injury and admission-related characteristics. Association with in-hospital mortality was investigated for flame burns using logistic regressions and expressed as odds ratios (ORs). The mortality prediction of the ABSI score was assessed using sensitivity and specificity analyses.

RESULTS

Overall the in-hospital mortality was 20.4%. For the 263 flame burns, while crude ORs suggested gender, burn depth, burn size, inhalation injury, and referral status were all individually significantly associated with mortality, only the association with female gender, not being referred and burn size remained significant after adjustments (adjusted ORs = 3.79, 2.86 and 1.11 (per percentage increase in size) respectively). For the ABSI score, sensitivity and specificity were 84% and 86% respectively.

CONCLUSION

In this specialised centre, mortality occurs in one in five patients. It is associated with a few clinical parameters, and can be predicted using the ABSI score.

The organisation of critical care for burn patients in the UK: epidemiology and comparison of mortality prediction models

In the UK, a network of specialist centres has been set up to provide critical care for burn patients. However, some burn patients are admitted to general intensive care units. Little is known about the casemix of these patients and how it compares with patients in specialist burn centres. It is not known whether burn-specific or generic risk prediction models perform better when applied to patients managed in intensive care units. We examined admissions for burns in the Case Mix Programme Database from April 2010 to March 2016. The casemix, activity and outcome in general and specialist burn intensive care units were compared and the fit of two burn-specific risk prediction models (revised Baux and Belgian Outcome in Burn Injury models) and one generic model (Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre model) were compared. Patients in burn intensive care units had more extensive injuries compared with patients in general intensive care units (median (IQR [range]) burn surface area 16 (7-32 [0-98])% vs. 8 (1-18 [0-100])%, respectively) but in-hospital mortality was similar (22.8% vs. 19.0%, respectively). The discrimination and calibration of the generic Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre model was superior to the revised Baux and Belgian Outcome in Burn Injury burn-specific models for patients managed on both specialist burn and general intensive care units.

Contemporary Burn Survival

BACKGROUND

The standard of burn treatment today reflects major advances. We sought to quantitate the impact of these advances on burn survival via age-stratified mortality ratios compared with other reported mortality analyses in burns.

STUDY DESIGN

Age, percent of the total body surface area (TBSA) burned, presence of inhalation injury, length of stay, and survival status were recorded at admission and at discharge for all new burn admissions between 1989 and 2017. The expected mortality probability was calculated using historical multiple regression techniques and compared with observed data. We developed a prediction model for our observed data.

RESULTS

Between 1989 and 2017, there were 10,384 consecutive new burn admissions, with 355 mortalities (median age, 13 years; median percent TBSA burn, 11%). We saw a significant decrease in our observed mortality data compared to historical predictions (p < 0.0001), and a 2% reduction per year in mortality during the 3 decades. The prediction model of mortality for the data is as follows: Pr(dying) = ex/(1 + ex) where x = -6.44 - 0.12 age + 0.0042 age2 - 0.0000283 age3 + 0.0499 TBSA + 1.21 Inhalation Injury + 0.015 third degree TBSA.

CONCLUSIONS

The reduction in mortality over time may be attributed to successful changes in standard of care protocols in the burn center that improved the outlook for burned individuals, including protocols for management of inhalation injury, nutrition, resuscitation, and early excision and grafting.

Seeing the forest beyond the trees: Predicting survival in burn patients with machine learning

BACKGROUND

This study aims to identify predictors of survival for burn patients at the patient and hospital level using machine learning techniques.

METHODS

The HCUP SID for California, Florida and New York were used to identify patients admitted with a burn diagnosis and merged with hospital data from the AHA Annual Survey. Random forest and stochastic gradient boosting (SGB) were used to identify predictors of survival at the patient and hospital level from the top performing model.

RESULTS

We analyzed 31,350 patients from 670 hospitals. SGB (AUC 0.93) and random forest (AUC 0.82) best identified patient factors such as age and absence of renal failure (p < 0.001) and hospital factors such as full time residents (p < 0.001) and nurses (p = 0.004) to be associated with increased survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Patient and hospital factors are predictive of survival in burn patients. It is difficult to control patient factors, but hospital factors can inform decisions about where burn patients should be treated.

Poor methodological quality and reporting standards of systematic reviews in burn care management

The methodological and reporting quality of burn-specific systematic reviews has not been established. The aim of this study was to evaluate the methodological quality of systematic reviews in burn care management. Computerised searches were performed in Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid EMBASE and The Cochrane Library through to February 2016 for systematic reviews relevant to burn care using medical subject and free-text terms such as 'burn', 'systematic review' or 'meta-analysis'. Additional studies were identified by hand-searching five discipline-specific journals. Two authors independently screened papers, extracted and evaluated methodological quality using the 11-item A Measurement Tool to Assess Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR) tool and reporting quality using the 27-item Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) checklist. Characteristics of systematic reviews associated with methodological and reporting quality were identified. Descriptive statistics and linear regression identified features associated with improved methodological quality. A total of 60 systematic reviews met the inclusion criteria. Six of the 11 AMSTAR items reporting on 'a priori' design, duplicate study selection, grey literature, included/excluded studies, publication bias and conflict of interest were reported in less than 50% of the systematic reviews. Of the 27 items listed for PRISMA, 13 items reporting on introduction, methods, results and the discussion were addressed in less than 50% of systematic reviews. Multivariable analyses showed that systematic reviews associated with higher methodological or reporting quality incorporated a meta-analysis (AMSTAR regression coefficient 2.1; 95% CI: 1.1, 3.1; PRISMA regression coefficient 6·3; 95% CI: 3·8, 8·7) were published in the Cochrane library (AMSTAR regression coefficient 2·9; 95% CI: 1·6, 4·2; PRISMA regression coefficient 6·1; 95% CI: 3·1, 9·2) and included a randomised control trial (AMSTAR regression coefficient 1·4; 95%CI: 0·4, 2·4; PRISMA regression coefficient 3·4; 95% CI: 0·9, 5·8). The methodological and reporting quality of systematic reviews in burn care requires further improvement with stricter adherence by authors to the PRISMA checklist and AMSTAR tool.

The clinical and microbiological characteristics of infections in burn patients from the Formosa Fun Coast Dust Explosion

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE

Bloodstream infection is a leading cause of mortality among burn patients. This study aimed to evaluate the risk factors, causative pathogens, and the relationship between bloodstream infections and other infections among burn patients from the Formosa Fun Coast Dust Explosion.

METHODS

This retrospective study evaluated the demographic and clinical characteristics, infection types, causative pathogen(s), and isolates' antibiotic susceptibilities from patients who were hospitalized between June 27 and September 31, 2015.

RESULTS

Fifty-eight patients were admitted during the study period (36 males, mean age: 22.6 years). The mean burned total body surface area (TBSA) was 40% for all patients. Eighteen (31%) patients with mean TBSA of 80% had 66 episodes of bloodstream infections caused by 92 isolates. Twelve (18.2%) episodes of bloodstream infections were polymicrobial. Acinetobacter baumannii (19, 20.7%), Ralstonia pickettii (17, 18.5%), and Chryseobacterium meningosepticum (13, 14.1%) were the most common pathogens causing bloodstream infections. A high concordance rate of wound cultures with blood cultures was seen in Staphylococcus aureus (3, 75%) and C. meningosepticum (8, 61.5%) infections. However, no Ralstonia isolate was found in burn wounds of patients with Ralstonia bacteremia. A high concordance rate of central venous catheter cultures with blood cultures was noted in Ralstonia mannitolilytica (5, 62.5%) and Chryseobacterium indologenes (3, 60%) infections. Approximately 21.1% of A. baumannii strains were resistant to carbapenem. All S. aureus isolates were susceptible to methicillin.

CONCLUSIONS

Waterborne bacteria should be considered in patients of burns with possible water contact. Empirical broad-spectrum antibiotics should be considered for patients who were hospitalized for severe sepsis, or septic shock with a large burn. Antibiotic treatment should be administered based on the specific pathogens and their detection points.

Human survival in volcanic eruptions: Thermal injuries in pyroclastic surges, their causes, prognosis and emergency management

This study of burns patients from two eruptions of Merapi volcano, Java, in 1994 and 2010, is the first detailed analysis to be reported of thermal injuries in a large series of hospitalised victims of pyroclastic surges, one of the most devastating phenomena in explosive eruptions. Emergency planners in volcanic crises in populated areas have to integrate the health sector into disaster management and be aware of the nature of the surge impacts and the types of burns victims to be expected in a worst scenario, potentially in numbers and in severity that would overwhelm normal treatment facilities. In our series, 106 patients from the two eruptions were treated in the same major hospital in Yogyakarta and a third of these survived. Seventy-eight per cent were admitted with over 40% TBSA (total body surface area) burns and around 80% of patients were suspected of having at least some degree of inhalation injury as well. Thirty five patients suffered over 80% TBSA burns and only one of these survived. Crucially, 45% of patients were in the 40-79% TBSA range, with most suspected of suffering from inhalation injury, for whom survival was most dependent on the hospital treatment they received. After reviewing the evidence from recent major eruptions and outlining the thermal hazards of surges, we relate the type and severity of the injuries of these patients to the temperatures and dynamics of the pyroclastic surges, as derived from the environmental impacts and associated eruption processes evaluated in our field surveys and interviews conducted by our multi-disciplinary team. Effective warnings, adequate evacuation measures, and political will are all essential in volcanic crises in populated areas to prevent future catastrophes on this scale.

Lower Serum Albumin Shortly After Admission Predicts Prolonged Hospital Stay in Younger Burn Patients

The purpose of this study was to assess whether albumin levels could be used to aid in the prediction of hospital stay in adult burn patients. A retrospective review of burn patients from 2009 to 2014 was used. Demographic, injury details, albumin levels within 72 hours of admission, and clinical outcomes were recorded. The abbreviated burn severity index (ABSI) was calculated for each patient. Hospital stay >3 weeks was defined as "prolonged stay." Since albumin showed a significant interaction with age, patients were divided into two groups based on a median age of 40 years. Albumin, total BSA, and ABSI were each used as predictors, and the area under the curve (AUC) of a receiver operating characteristic curve was calculated. A composite score was created for the ≤ 40 years age group using ABSI and albumin levels to predict an increased length of stay. Thirty-eight of 198 (19.2%) patients had a stay >3 weeks. The AUCs for albumin level, total BSA, and ABSI alone in younger patients were 0.97, 0.97, and 0.96, respectively. Among patients older than 40, the AUC values were substantially lower indicating lower predictive value. The probability of prolonged stay for patients with albumin level ≥ 2.4 g/dl was low (.8%) compared with those with albumin level <2.4 g/dl (96.5%). Adding ABSI to this model increased predictive accuracy. Albumin level obtained within 72 hours of admission was an effective predictor of prolonged hospital stay in adult burn patients ≤ 40 years.

Early leukocyte gene expression associated with age, burn size, and inhalation injury in severely burned adults

BACKGROUND

In the patient with burn injury, older age, larger percentage of total body surface area (TBS) burned, and inhalation injury are established risk factors for death, which typically results from multisystem organ failure and sepsis, implicating burn-induced immune dysregulation as a contributory mechanism. We sought to identify early transcriptomic changes in circulating leukocytes underlying increased mortality associated with these three risk factors.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of the Glue Grant database. From 2003 to 2010, 324 adults with 20% or greater TBS burned were prospectively enrolled at five US burn centers, and 112 provided blood samples within 1 week after burn. RNA was extracted from pooled leukocytes for hybridization onto Affymetrix HU133 Plus 2.0 GeneChips. A multivariate regression model was constructed to determine risk factors for mortality. Testing for differential gene association associated with age, burn size, and inhalation injury was based on linear models using a fold change threshold of 1.5 and false discovery rate of 0.05.

RESULTS

After adjusting for potential confounders, age greater than 60 years (relative risk [RR], 4.53; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.93-6.99), burn size greater than 40% TBS (RR, 4.24; 95% CI, 2.61-6.91), and inhalation injury (RR, 2.08; 95% CI, 1.35-3.21) were independently associated with mortality. No genes were differentially expressed in association with age greater than 60 years or inhalation injury. Fifty-one probe sets representing 39 unique genes were differentially expressed in leukocytes from patients with burn size greater than 40% TBS; these genes were associated with platelet activation and degranulation/exocytosis, and gene-set enrichment analysis suggested increased cellular proliferation and down-regulation of proinflammatory cytokines.

CONCLUSION

Among adults with large burns, older age, increasing burn size, and inhalation injury have a modest effect on the leukocyte transcriptome in the context of the "genomic storm" induced by a 20% or greater than TBS burned. The 39-gene signature we identified may provide novel targets for the development of therapies to reduce morbidity and mortality associated with burns greater than 40% TBS.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Epidemiologic study, level III.

Modified first world mortality scores can be used in a regional South African burn service with resource limitations

INTRODUCTION

Survival following a major burn is highly dependent on the availability of scare and expensive resources such as critical care services, modern dressings and access to operating theatres. Scoring systems, which predict mortality have been developed and can be used to identify patients in whom the outlay of these resources is futile. The aim of this study was to analyse the mortality at a regional South African burn service and to see if these scoring models developed in a resource rich environment were applicable to our setting.

METHODS

Consecutive admissions to the Edendale burn service, South Africa were collected from patient records over a 2-year period from July 2013 to June 2015. Demographic, burn details and final outcome (lived or died) were captured for statistical analysis. Each patient was scored using the Modified Baux, Coste et al., Belgian Outcome of Burn Injury (BOBI) and Abbreviated Burn Severity Index (ABSI) scores. Validation of models and inferential statistics were done to determine new breakpoints more applicable to our sample.

RESULTS

A total of 748 patients were included in the sample, with a mortality rate of 7.1%. The mean Modified Baux score was 27 (range 1-134), with the new breakpoint of 40 predicting 74% of the mortalities compared to the 42% predicted by the old breakpoint of 75. The mean ABSI score was 4 (range 2-15), with a lower break point of 6 predicting 75% of deaths compared to 42% with the old breakpoint of 8. The mean Coste score for the sample was 12 (range 0-100). With a suggested break point of 85 (predicting 50% mortality), only 6% of mortalities were predicted. The new break point of 17 predicted 91% of deaths. The original break point for the BOBI score was 6 (range 0-7). This included 42% of deaths. With a new breakpoint of 1, 74% of deaths were predicted.

DISCUSSION

Our data has shown that in our environment a significant number of fatalities occur in patients with potentially salvageable burns, and the breakpoints for the mortality prediction scores such as, the Modified Baux score, Coste et al. score, BOBI and ABSI scores are much lower than high-income countries. However these mortality predictive scores can be used in a resource scarce South African setting to triage patients into risk categories by lowering the breakpoints. This may facilitate early and more aggressive management of high-risk burn patients, improving survival rates, as well as efficient and judicious use of critical care and other resources.