Recent cancer incidence trends in Ukraine and short-term predictions to 2022

СANCER INCIDENCE IN UKRAINE: TRENDS IN 2010-2019 AND THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC

BACKGROUND

In 2020, a sharp decrease in the number of new cancer cases was registered in Ukraine in the setting of the quarantine restrictions due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which contrasted with the previous trends.

AIM

To study trends of cancer incidence rates in Ukraine in the recent decade and to assess the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on cancer detection in 2020.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Records on cancer cases diagnosed during 2010-2020 (n = 1,498,911) from the database of the National Cancer Registry of Ukraine were used; the data being submitted early in 2022. Trends of the age-standardized incidence rates in 2010-2019 were estimated by the Joinpoint Regression Program.

RESULTS

During 2010-2019, the incidence rates increased (p < 0.05) for colon, prostate, and pharyngeal cancers in males and for colon, thyroid, and pancreas in females with the rates of other prevalent cancers being stable or decreasing (lung and larynx in males, cervix and rectum in females, stomach in both genders); the incidence increased mainly at the expense of the population aged 60-74 years. A significant decrease in cancer incidence was in males aged 40-59 years. In 2020, the serious negative impact of COVID-19 outbreak on the timely detection of cancer occurred in all adult age groups of the Ukrainian population and involved all the most common cancers. The most pronounced diminution of the incidence rate was observed for non-melanoma skin cancers (by 35.9%- 37.9%); the decrements of the rates for other prevalent cancers varied from -23.0% (prostate gland) to -9.7% (pharynx) in males and from -21.2% (kidney) to -9.1% (pancreas) in females, the greatest ones being in the population aged 75+.

CONCLUSIONS

The sharp drop of the cancer incidence rates registered in Ukraine 2020 is evidently the result of the limited access to healthcare facilities as well as the reduced oncological alertness of the population due to the predominant focus on COVID-19 during the pandemic. However, it is not a manifestation of a decrease in cancer incidence as such. In the following years, this may increase the proportion of advanced-stage diagnoses, the load on the cancer care system, and cancer mortality in the Ukrainian population. An evaluation of the short-termand long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the cancer burden in Ukraine requires further monitoring.

Clinical characteristics of bloodstream infections in adult patients with solid tumours and a nomogram for mortality prediction: a 5-year case-controlled retrospective study in a tertiary-level hospital

Background

Bloodstream infections (BSIs) are one of the leading causes of death in cancer patients. Nevertheless, the risk factors of BSIs in solid tumors have rarely been ascertained adequately.

Methods

We conducted a single-center case-controlled retrospective study from 2017 to 2021 among adults with solid tumors in a tertiary-level hospital. The BSIs and control group were matched by the propensity score matching method. We found independent risk factors of occurrence and death of BSIs using univariate and multivariate regression analysis. Additionally, a nomogram was constructed to predict the risk of mortality in BSIs.

Results

Of 602 patients with solid tumors in the study period, 186 had BSIs and 416 had non-BSIs. The incidence of BSIs was 2.0/1,000 admissions (206/102,704), and the 30-day mortality rate was 18.8% (35/186). Compared to the control group, the BSIs had longer hospital stays (24.5 days vs. 20.0 days), and higher frequency complicating with organ failure (10.5% vs. 2.4%), nephropathy (19.6% vs. 3.8%), comorbidities≥3 (35.5% vs. 20.0%), and liver-biliary-pancreatic infections (15.6% vs. 5.3%) (all P<0.001). Among the 186 patients with BSIs, 35 died within 30 days after BSIs. Gram-negative bacteria were the most frequent microorganisms (124/192, 64.6%). Liver cancer, organ failure, a high level of lactate dehydrogenase and septic shock were the independent hazardous factors for death of BSIs. What's more, a nomogram was constructed to predict the 30-day survival rate of BSIs, which was proved to have good accuracy (AUC: 0.854; 95% confidence interval: 0.785~0923) and consistency.

Conclusion

Being aware of the risk factors of BSIs redounds to take preventive measures to reduce the incidence and death of BSIs.

Cancer Care to Ukrainian War Refugees in Poland

This cohort study evaluates cancer care provided to Ukrainian war refugees in Poland.

The Effects of the Ukrainian Conflict on Oncological Care: The Latest State of the Art

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically affected all aspects of the patient's pathway to cancer diagnosis and subsequent treatment. Our main objective was to evaluate the status of cancer trials in Ukraine as of September 2022.

METHODS

Initially, we examined with a narrative review the state of breast, colorectal, and cervical cancer population-based screening. Subsequently, we assessed each trial status for the years 2021 and 2022.

RESULTS

Estimates of participation in breast and cervical cancer screening are different from region to region. Moreover, regarding cervical cancer screening, extremely different participation estimates were reported: 73% in 2003 vs. <10% 2020. Our data show that from 2014 to 2020, despite the pandemic, cancer trials in Ukraine significantly increased from 27 to 44. In 2021 no trials were completed; in fact, we observed that out of 41 trials, 8 were active not recruiting, 33 were recruiting, and 0 were completed or terminated. In 2022 in Ukraine, for oncological pathologies, only 3 trials were registered, while in 2021, 41 trials were registered. The suspension of trials regarded above all concern hematological tissue (66.7%) and the genitourinary tract (60%).

CONCLUSIONS

Our work has highlighted how the areas most affected by the conflict present criticalities in oncological care.

Breast cancer risk in Ukrainian women exposed to Chornobyl fallout while pregnant or lactating: standardized incidence ratio analysis, 1998 to 2016

The radiation-related risk of breast cancer among women following the Chornobyl accident remains uncertain. During pregnancy, there is rapid cell proliferation in the breast while radioactive iodine from fallout exposure can concentrate in lactating breast tissues. We conducted a standardized incidence ratio (SIR) analysis of breast cancer in a cohort of 2,631 women who were lactating and/or pregnant at any time during the 2-month period of radioiodine fallout (April 26, 1986-June 30, 1986). There were 37,151 person-years of follow-up, and 26 incident breast cancers were identified through linkage with the National Cancer Registry of Ukraine. Breast cancer rates among pregnant or lactating women were compared to the general population rates, and SIRs were adjusted for oblast, urban/rural, age, and calendar year. The SIR was not significant for women pregnant at the time of the accident (SIR = 0.75; 95% CI 0.44, 1.18) or for women lactating anytime within 2 months of the accident (SIR = 0.96; 95% CI 0.48, 1.68). However, there was a non-significantly elevated risk for women lactating at the time of accident (SIR = 1.30, 95% CI 0.40, 3.01). The increased SIR for breast cancer among lactating women is consistent with the results of a similar study in Belarus and indicates the need to quantify the radiation risk of breast cancer in a larger study of women lactating during the period of fallout exposure.

Association Between Statins and the Risk of Kidney Cancer Incidence and Mortality Using the Korean National Health Insurance Claims Database

BACKGROUND

Conflicting results have been reported regarding the potential preventive effects of statins on the risk of cancer. This study investigated the associations of statin use with the incidence and mortality of kidney cancer in South Korea.

METHODS

In this retrospective population-based cohort study using the National Health Insurance claims database, we compared patients aged 45-70 years who had used statins for at least 6 months to non-statin users matched by age and sex from 2005 to June 2013. The main outcomes were kidney cancer incidence and mortality according to statin use. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to calculate the adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs).

RESULTS

In the cohort of 1 008 101 people, the aHRs for the association between statin use and the outcomes were .84 (95% CI: 0.71-.99) for kidney cancer incidence and .65 (95% CI: 0.41-.98) for kidney cancer mortality. In the matched cohort of 337 578, the risk per 1000 people of cancer incidence and mortality was 1.63, 1.07, and .24, .17 in statin users and non-users, respectively. In matched cohort, the risk of kidney cancer incidence and mortality decreased, but it is not statistically significant. Also, there was no linear relationship with increased doses.

CONCLUSION

Statin use might be associated with a decreased risk of kidney cancer incidence and mortality, but it showed no statistical significance. This study was a large-scale analysis, however, further studies that are larger and multinational in scope are needed to confirm the beneficial effects of statins on survival.

New pyrimidine-5-carbonitrile derivatives as EGFR inhibitors with anticancer and apoptotic activity: Design, molecular modeling and synthesis

In connection with our efforts on the development of new anticancer agents, herein we report the design and synthesis of new small pyrimidine-5-carbonitrile based derivatives. The target pyrimidines were evaluated...

Statin use and incidence and mortality of breast and gynecology cancer: A cohort study using the National Health Insurance claims database

Previous studies have reported inconsistent findings concerning the impact of statin use on cancer prevention. This study examined the association between statin use and cancer incidence and mortality related to breast and gynecologic cancers in South Korea. A population-based cohort study was conducted using the National Health Insurance claims database. Women aged 45-70 years old who had taken statins for at least 6 months were compared to statin non-users of the same age from January 2005 to June 2013. The primary outcomes were cancer incidence and mortality related to breast cancer, total gynecologic cancers, cervix uteri cancer, and ovarian cancer. Cox proportional hazards regression was conducted to calculate the adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). Out of 587 705 women, there were 3591 cases of breast cancer, 2239 cases of gynecologic cancers, and 565 breast and total gynecologic cancer deaths during 7.6 person-years. The aHRs for the association between the risk of each cancer and statin use were 0.88 (95% CI 0.79-0.97) for breast cancer and 0.83 (95% CI 0.67-0.99) for cervix uteri cancer. Statin use was associated with decreased breast cancer mortality (HR = 0.65, 95% CI 0.43-0.99) and total gynecologic cancer mortality (HR = 0.70, 95% CI 0.50-0.98). A dose-response relationship was only found for all-cancer mortality. Statin use for at least 6 months was significantly associated with a lower risk of breast and cervix uteri cancer incidence, and with lower mortality of breast and gynecologic cancers. Further research on these associations will be needed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Cancer mortality and predictions for 2020 in selected Australasian countries, Russia and Ukraine

OBJECTIVES

Predicted cancer mortality figures are useful for public health planning. We predicted cancer mortality rates in Israel, Hong Kong, Japan, the Philippines, Korea, Australia, Russia and Ukraine for the year 2020 using the most recent available data. We focused on breast cancer.

METHODS

We obtained cancer death certification and population data from the WHO and the United Nations Population Division databases. We derived figures for 10 major cancer sites and total cancers over 1970-2017. We predicted numbers of deaths and age-standardized mortality rates for 2020 through joinpoint regression models. We calculated the number of avoided deaths from 1994-2020.

RESULTS

Overall, total cancer mortality is predicted to decline. Russia had the highest all cancers rates in 2020, 151.9/100 000 men and 79.6 women; the Philippines had the lowest rate in men, 78.0/100 000, Korea in women, 47.5. Stomach cancer rates declined over the whole period in all countries considered, colorectal cancer since the late 1990s. Trends for pancreas were inconsistent. Predicted rates for lung and breast cancer were favourable; women from Hong Kong, Korea and Australia had lung cancer death rates higher than breast ones. Predicted rates for uterine, ovarian, prostate and bladder cancers and leukaemias were downward for most countries. Between 1994 and 2020, over 3.3 million cancer deaths were avoided in the considered countries, except for the Philippines where no reduction was observed.

CONCLUSION

Predicted cancer rates were lower than in the European Union and the USA, even though falls started later and were less marked.