Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure

Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality of intensive care unit patients with liver cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Liver cirrhosis patients admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) have a high mortality rate.

AIM

To establish and validate a nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality of ICU patients with liver cirrhosis.

METHODS

We extracted demographic, etiological, vital sign, laboratory test, comorbidity, complication, treatment, and severity score data of liver cirrhosis patients from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) and electronic ICU (eICU) collaborative research database (eICU-CRD). Predictor selection and model building were based on the MIMIC-IV dataset. The variables selected through least absolute shrinkage and selection operator analysis were further screened through multivariate regression analysis to obtain final predictors. The final predictors were included in the multivariate logistic regression model, which was used to construct a nomogram. Finally, we conducted external validation using the eICU-CRD. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), decision curve, and calibration curve were used to assess the efficacy of the models.

RESULTS

Risk factors, including the mean respiratory rate, mean systolic blood pressure, mean heart rate, white blood cells, international normalized ratio, total bilirubin, age, invasive ventilation, vasopressor use, maximum stage of acute kidney injury, and sequential organ failure assessment score, were included in the multivariate logistic regression. The model achieved AUCs of 0.864 and 0.808 in the MIMIC-IV and eICU-CRD databases, respectively. The calibration curve also confirmed the predictive ability of the model, while the decision curve confirmed its clinical value.

CONCLUSION

The nomogram has high accuracy in predicting in-hospital mortality. Improving the included predictors may help improve the prognosis of patients.

Development of novel prognostic models based on dynamic changes in risk factors for hepatitis B associated acute-on-chronic liver failure:a 10-year retrospective study

Background/Aims

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is associated with high short-term mortality, and early prediction is critical to reduce the deaths of ACLF patients. To date, however, the prognostic accuracy of current models for ACLF is unsatisfactory, particularly, in patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. This study aims to develop novel prognostic models based on the dynamic changes in variables to predict the short-term mortality of HBV-associated ACLF (HBV-ACLF).

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was conducted, with the population comprised in whom ACLF was confirmed.319 patients were enrolled and their clinical data were collected on Days 1 and 7 following hospital admission. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify risk factors for 28 and 90-day mortality. The dynamic alterations in the risk factors were further analyzed, and Days 1 and 7 prognostic models were constructed. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis were used to identify and compared the predictors of prognosis among our model.

Results

Univariate and multivariate analyses revealed significant risk factors at Days 1 and 7, which when combined with the clinically important parameters, were used to establish the Days 1 and 7 prognostic models. For 28-day mortality, the predictive accuracy of the Day 1 prognostic model was significantly higher than that of the albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) model. For 90-day mortality, the predictive accuracy of the Days 1 and 7 prognostic models was significantly higher than that of the Model of End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), MELD-sodium (MELD-Na), and ALBI prognostic models.

Conclusions

The prognostic models established in this study were superior to the existing prognostic scoring systems to accurately predict short-term mortality, and therefore, could be potential novel prognostic tools for HBV-ACLF.

The future of liver transplantation

Over the last 50 years, liver transplantation has evolved into a procedure routinely performed in many countries worldwide. Those able to access this therapy frequently experience a miraculous risk-benefit ratio, particularly if they face the imminently life-threatening disease. Over the decades, the success of liver transplantation, with dramatic improvements in early posttransplant survival, has aggressively driven demand. However, despite the emergence of living donors to augment deceased donors as a source of organs, supply has lagged far behind demand. As a result, rationing has been an unfortunate focus in recent decades. Recent shifts in the epidemiology of liver disease combined with transformative innovations in liver preservation suggest that the underlying premise of organ shortage may erode in the foreseeable future. The focus will sharpen on improving equitable access while mitigating constraints related to workforce training, infrastructure for organ recovery and rehabilitation, and their associated costs. Research efforts in liver preservation will undoubtedly blossom with the aim of optimizing both the timing and conditions of transplantation. Coupled with advances in genetic engineering, regenerative biology, and cellular therapies, the portfolio of innovation, both broad and deep, offers the promise that, in the future, liver transplantation will not only be broadly available to those in need but also represent a highly durable life-saving therapy.

Prognostic value of serum ammonia in critical patients with non-hepatic disease: A prospective, observational, multicenter study

Background and Objectives

Non-hepatic hyperammonemia can damage the central nervous system (CNS), and possible prognostic factors are lacking. This study aimed to investigate the prognostic and risk factors for patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU).

Materials and Methods

This prospective, observational, multicenter study was conducted between November and December 2019 at 11 ICUs in the Chinese Heilongjiang province. Changes in blood ammonia level during and after ICU admission were continuously monitored and expressed as the high level (H-), mean level (M-), and initial level (I-) of ammonia. The risk factors of poor prognosis were investigated by conducting univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was conducted to compare the predictive ability of Acute Physiologic Assessment and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE-II) score, lactic acid, total bilirubin (TBil), and M-ammonia.

Results

A total of 1060 patients were included in this study, of which 707 (67%) had a favorable prognosis and 353 (33%) had a poor prognosis. As shown by univariate models, a poor prognosis was associated with elevated serum levels of lactic acid, TBil, and ammonia (P < 0.05) and pathologic scores from three assessments: APACHE-II, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA). Multivariate analysis revealed that circulating mean ammonia levels in ICU patients were independently associated with a poor prognosis (odds ratio [OR] = 1.73, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.07-2.80, P = 0.02). However, the APACHE-II score (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.714, sensitivity: 0.86, specificity: 0.68, P < 0.001) remained the most predictive factor for patient prognosis by ROC analysis.

Conclusion

Elevated serum levels of ammonia in the blood were independently prognostic for ICU patients without liver disease.

Natural history of NASH cirrhosis in liver transplant waitlist registrants

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) cirrhosis is rapidly growing as an indication for liver transplant(ation) (LT). However, the natural history of NASH cirrhosis among LT waitlist registrants has not been established. The present study aimed to define the natural history of NASH cirrhosis using the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients database.

METHODS

The study cohort comprised patients registered on the LT waitlist between 1/1/2016 to 12/31/2021. The primary outcomes included probability of LT and waitlist mortality, comparing NASH (n = 8,120) vs. non-NASH (n = 21,409) cirrhosis.

RESULTS

Patients with NASH cirrhosis were listed with lower model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores despite bearing a greater burden of portal hypertension, especially at lower MELD scores. The overall transplant probability in LT waitlist registrants with NASH [vs. non-NASH] cirrhosis was significantly lower at 90 days (HR 0.873, p <0.001) and 1 year (HR 0.867, p <0.001); this was even more pronounced in patients with MELD scores >30 (HR 0.705 at 90 days and HR 0.672 at 1 year, p <0.001 for both). Serum creatinine was the key contributor to MELD score increases leading to LT among LT waitlist registrants with NASH cirrhosis, while bilirubin was in patients with non-NASH cirrhosis. Finally, waitlist mortality at 90 days (HR 1.15, p <0.001) and 1 year (1.25, p <0.001) was significantly higher in patients with NASH cirrhosis compared to those with non-NASH cirrhosis. These differences were more pronounced in patients with lower MELD scores at the time of LT waitlist registration.

CONCLUSIONS

LT waitlist registrants with NASH cirrhosis are less likely to receive a transplant compared to patients with non-NASH cirrhosis. Serum creatinine was the major contributor to MELD score increases leading to LT in patients with NASH cirrhosis.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

This study provides important insights into the distinct natural history of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) cirrhosis among liver transplant (LT) waitlist registrants, revealing that patients with NASH cirrhosis face lower odds of transplantation and higher waitlist mortality than those with non-NASH cirrhosis. Our study underscores the significance of serum creatinine as a crucial contributor to model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score in patients with NASH cirrhosis. These findings have substantial implications, emphasizing the need for ongoing evaluation and refinement of the MELD score to more accurately capture mortality risk in patients with NASH cirrhosis on the LT waitlist. Moreover, the study highlights the importance of further research investigating the impact of the implementation of MELD 3.0 across the US on the natural history of NASH cirrhosis.

Acute on Chronic Liver Failure in Patients with Alcohol-Associated Hepatitis: A Review

Acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a unique disease process associated with significant short-term mortality wherein patients with either chronic liver disease or cirrhosis suffer rapid decompensation in hepatic function accompanied by extrahepatic organ failures. Alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) is a common precipitant of ACLF and has been shown to uniquely affect the pathophysiology of systemic and hepatic immune responses in patients with ACLF. Treatment of AH-associated ACLF includes supportive measures as well as treatment directed at AH; however, AH-directed therapies unfortunately remain limited and are of suboptimal efficacy.

Plasma S100A8 and S100A9 Are Strong Prognostic Factors for Hepatitis B Virus-Related Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure

Objectives

The rapidly evolving organ failure and high short-run mortality of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) are inseparable from the role of systemic inflammatory response. S100A8 and S100A9 are associated with the excessive cytokine storm and play a decisive part within the process of inflammation. We aimed to clarify the role of them in predicting prognosis of hepatitis B virus-related ACLF (HBV-ACLF).

Methods

S100A8 and S100A9 levels were analyzed in plasma of 187 transplant-free HBV-ACLF patients, 28 healthy controls and 40 chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. S100A8 and S100A9 mRNAs were checked in liver samples from 32 HBV-ACLF patients with liver transplantation, 19 patients undergoing surgery for hepatic hemangioma and 10 CHB patients with needle biopsy.

Results

The plasma levels of the S100A8 and S100A9 were higher in HBV-ACLF patients than in CHB patients (S100A8 : P < 0.001 and S100A9 : P < 0.001) and healthy controls (S100A8 : P < 0.001 and S100A9 : P < 0.001), and similar results were obtained for mRNA expression. Moreover, both proteins were related to ACLF grade, different types of organ failure, and infection, and they correlated with other prognostic scoring systems. S100A8 and S100A9 can dependently predict 28/90-day mortality (28-day: S100A8: hazard ratio (HR): 1.027; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.007-1.048; P=0.026, S100A9 : HR: 1.009; 95% CI: 1.001-1.017; P=0.007, 90-day: S100A8 : HR: 1.023; 95% CI: 1.011-1.035; P=0.004, S100A9 : HR: 1.008; 95% CI: 1.004-1.012; and P < 0.001). Among all of the scoring systems, the combined scoring model (S100A8 and S100A9 jointly with the Chronic Liver Failure-Consortium Organ Failure score (CLIF-C OFs)) displayed the highest area under the receiver operating curve (0.923 (95% CI, 0.887-0.961)) in the prediction of 90-day mortality.

Conclusions

S100A8 and S100A9 are promising biomarkers for the analysis of risk stratification and prognosis in ACLF patients. In addition, combining them with the CLIF-C OFs may better predict the prognosis of ACLF.

Acute kidney injury in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure: clinical significance and management

Acute-on-chronic-liver failure (ACLF) refers to a phenomenon in which patients with chronic liver disease develop multiple organ failure due to acute exacerbation of underlying liver disease. More than 10 definitions of ACLF are extant around the world, and there is lack of consensus on whether extrahepatic organ failure is a main component or a consequence of ACLF. Asian and European consortiums have their own definitions of ACLF. The Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver ACLF Research Consortium does not consider kidney failure as a diagnostic criterion for ACLF. Meanwhile, the European Association for the Study of the Liver Chronic Liver Failure and the North American Consortium for the Study of End-stage Liver Disease do consider kidney failure as an important factor in diagnosing and assessing the severity of ACLF. When kidney failure occurs in ACLF patients, treatment varies depending on the presence and stage of acute kidney injury (AKI). In general, the diagnosis of AKI in cirrhotic patients is based on the International Club of Ascites criteria: an increase of 0.3 mg/dL or more within 48 hours or a serum creatinine increase of 50% or more within one week. This study underscores the importance of kidney failure or AKI in patients with ACLF by reviewing its pathophysiology, prevention methods, and treatment approaches.

A Lower HCC Incidence in Chronic HBV-Infected Patients Recovered from Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure: A Prospective Cohort Study

Background

Activation of chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is an important cause of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). However, the effect of HBV-ACLF episode on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence remains largely unknown.

Methods

A total of 769 HBV-ACLF patients and 2114 HBV-related chronic liver disease (HBV-CLD) patients diagnosed between August 1998 and December 2011 were enrolled in this prospective cohort study. Of the HBV-CLD patients, 380 received lifetime antiviral treatment with nucleos(t)ide analogues. Propensity score matching was applied to reduce baseline differences between HBV-ACLF and HBV-CLD cohorts.

Results

The survival rate of HBV-ACLF patients was 53.6%, 50.3%, 47.8%, and 46.2% at 90-day, 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year, respectively. The cumulative incidence of HCC was lower in HBV-ACLF cohort with 369 eligible patients survived for >90 days than in HBV-CLD cohort with the 380 patients (5.77/1,000 vs. 9.78/1,000 person-years, p = 0.0497). HBV-ACLF episode decreased HCC risk regardless of liver cirrhosis, and in patients without family history of HCC. Multivariate Cox analyses indicated that male, increasing age, liver cirrhosis, and platelet count (≤100 × 10⁹/L) increased, whereas HBV-ACLF episode decreased, HCC risk independently. In the propensity score-matched cohorts, HBV-ACLF episode reduced HCC incidence (10.20/1,000 vs. 4.66/1,000 person-years, p = 0.0326). The area under curve of nomogram was 0.812 for 3-year HCC probability.

Conclusions

HBV-ACLF episode decreases HCC occurrence in chronic HBV patients. Older age and liver cirrhosis independently increased HCC occurrence. A nomogram-enrolled episode of ACLF reliably predicts the occurrence of HCC.

Serum Nitric Oxide Level Serves as a Potential Prognostic Biomarker in ACLF Patients

Background and Aim

Fewer than 50% of patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) recover spontaneously, and without liver transplantation, ACLF is associated with high death rates. Nitric oxide (NO) has a role in the pathogenesis of various liver disorders. We investigated if serum NO level could be used as a biomarker to predict the severity and prognosis of patients with ACLF.

Methods

Between January 2018 and September 2020, a retrospective cohort of 120 ACLF patients, as well as healthy and cirrhotic controls, was investigated. The serum NO levels were measured using a commercial ELISA kit, and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was conducted.

Results

ACLF patients had significantly higher serum NO levels than healthy and cirrhotic controls. Multivariate analysis indicated that the serum NO level (HR=1.078, 95% CI 1.031-1.126, P<0.01), as well as the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, may be an affordable, easily available, and significant independent predictive marker for mortality. In ACLF patients, a serum NO level of > 53.5 μmol/L was associated with a significant increase in the risk of mortality or liver transplantation. A combination of serum NO level and MELD score to assess the severity and prognosis of ACLF patients showed enhanced performance.

Conclusion

Based on serum NO levels at the time of hospital admission, ACLF patients may be divided into high-risk and low-risk groups. The combination of serum NO level and MELD score is more closely linked to the patient's outcome than either value alone. This method might be used to evaluate patient prognoses and select candidates for liver transplantation.

Status 1B designation does not adequately prioritize children with acute-on-chronic liver failure for liver transplantation

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is an acute decompensation of chronic liver disease leading to multiorgan failure and mortality. The objective of this study was to evaluate characteristics and outcomes of children with ACLF who are at the highest priority for liver transplantation (LT) on the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) database-listed as status 1B. The characteristics and outcomes of 478 children with ACLF listed as status 1B on the UNOS LT waiting list from 2007-2019 were compared with children with similar or higher priority listing for transplant: 929 with acute liver failure (ALF) listed as status 1A and 808 with metabolic diseases and malignancies listed as status 1B (termed "non-ACLF"). Children with ACLF had comparable rates of cumulative organ failures compared with ALF (45% vs. 44%; p > 0.99) listings, but higher than non-ACLF (45% vs. 1%; p < 0.001). ACLF had the lowest LT rate (79%, 84%, 95%; p < 0.001), highest pre-LT mortality (20%, 11%, 1%; p < 0.001), and longest waitlist time (57, 3, 56 days; p < 0.001), and none recovered without LT (0%, 4%, 1%; p < 0.001). In survival analyses, ACLF was associated with an increased adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for post-LT mortality (HR, 1.50 vs. ALF [95% confidence interval, CI, 1.02-2.19; p = 0.04] and HR, 1.64 vs. non-ACLF [95% CI, 1.15-2.34; p = 0.01]). ACLF has the least favorable waitlist and post-LT outcomes of all patients who are status 1A/1B. Increased prioritization on the LT waiting list may offer children with ACLF an opportunity for enhanced outcomes.

Glucocorticoid Treatment Strategies in Liver Failure

Liver failure is characterized by serious liver decompensation and high mortality. The activation of systemic immune responses and systemic inflammation are widely accepted as the core pathogenesis of liver failure. Glucocorticoids (GCs) are most regularly utilized to suppress excessive inflammatory reactions and immunological responses. GCs have been used in the clinical treatment of liver failure for nearly 60 years. While there has been no unanimity on the feasibility and application of GC treatment in liver failure until recently. The most recent trials have produced conflicting results when it comes to the dose and time for GC therapy of different etiology of liver failure. Our review outlines the issues and options in managing GC treatment in liver failure based on an investigation of the molecular mechanism that GC may give in the treatment.

DIC Score Combined With CLIF-C OF Score Is More Effective in Predicting Prognosis in Patients With Hepatitis B Virus Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure

Coagulation and fibrinolysis disorders are major prognostic factors in hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) patients. Here, we aimed to clarify the role of disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) scores in predicting HBV-ACLF patient prognosis. We assessed the DIC score from HBV-ACLF patients at Huashan Hospital in Shanghai, China from June 2013 to May 2021 and evaluated it in relation to short-term mortality, clinical course, and infection. A novel prognostic scoring model was proposed based on DIC scores. A total of 163 transplant-free HBV-ACLF patients were enrolled. DIC scores were higher in non-survivors than survivors (6 vs. 4, P = 0.000) and were independently associated with short-term mortality [hazard ratio (HR): 1.397, 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.040–1.875, P = 0.026]. DIC scores were associated with ACLF grade, clinical course, and infection. Moreover, they were correlated with model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores (r = 0.521, P < 0.001). The area under the receiver operating curve (auROC) of CLIF-C OF-DICs [a novel prognostic score based on age, DIC score, and Chronic liver failure-consortium organ function score (CLIF-C OFs)] for 90-day mortality was 0.936, which was higher than six other generic prognostic scoring models. These results were confirmed in a validation cohort (n = 82). In conclusion, elevated DIC score is associated with poor prognosis in HBV-ACLF patients, and can be used jointly with CLIF-C OFs to improve the accuracy of prognosis prediction.

Integrated Analysis of Long Noncoding RNA Expression Profiles in Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure

People infected with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) might progress to acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) with a high fatality rate. Long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs) are involved in human diseases, but it is unknown whether lncRNAs are involved in the progression of chronic HBV infection to ACLF. Hence, this study is aimed at systemically identifying and characterizing the landscape and the molecular mechanism of lncRNAs in the pathogenesis of chronic HBV infection progress to ACLF. RNA sequencing (RNA-Seq) of peripheral blood samples from 5 ACLF and 5 HBV infection patients was performed. We detected 9733 lncRNAs, including 406 annotated lncRNAs and 9327 novel lncRNAs. A total of 407 lncRNAs were found to be significantly dysregulated in the patients with ACLF as compared with those in the chronic HBV infection patients. The flanking protein-coding genes of differentially expressed lncRNAs were enriched with pathways that might contribute to the pathogenesis of ACLF, such as the WNT signaling pathway. Furthermore, 9 selected differentially expressed lncRNAs validated by the qRT-PCR, showing that the expression patterns of these 9 lncRNAs were consistent with the RNA-Seq data. Four selected differentially expressed lncRNAs were also validated in another patient cohort comprising 80 patients with ACLF and 65 patients with chronic HBV infection. Aberrant lncRNAs might be used to develop novel diagnostic biomarkers or drug targets for ACLF.

Protective Effects of Taraxacum officinale L. (Dandelion) Root Extract in Experimental Acute on Chronic Liver Failure

BACKGROUND

Taraxacum officinale (TO) or dandelion has been frequently used to prevent or treat different liver diseases because of its rich composition in phytochemicals with demonstrated effect against hepatic injuries. This study aimed to investigate the possible preventing effect of ethanolic TO root extract (TOERE) on a rat experimental acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF) model.

METHODS

Chronic liver failure (CLF) was induced by human serum albumin, and ACLF was induced in CLF by D-galactosamine and lipopolysaccharide (D-Gal-LPS). Five groups (n = 5) of male Wistar rats (200-250 g) were used: ACLF, ACLF-silymarin (200 mg/kg b.w./day), three ACLF-TO administered in three doses (200 mg, 100 mg, 50 mg/kg b.w./day).

RESULTS

The in vivo results showed that treatment with TOERE administered in three chosen doses before ACLF induction reduced serum liver injury markers (AST, ALT, ALP, GGT, total bilirubin), renal tests (creatinine, urea), and oxidative stress tests (TOS, OSI, MDA, NO, 3NT). Histopathologically, TOERE diminished the level of liver tissue injury and 3NT immunoexpression.

CONCLUSIONS

This paper indicated oxidative stress reduction as possible mechanisms for the hepatoprotective effect of TOERE in ACLF and provided evidence for the preventive treatment.

A Stepwise Evaluation of Hepatitis B Virus-Related Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure to Optimize the Indication for Urgent Liver Transplantation

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) is a dynamic but reversible disease.

AIM

We aimed to clarify whether the change in Chinese Group on the Study of Severe Hepatitis B-ACLF (COSSH-ACLF) grade in HBV-ACLF patients can be used to predict prognosis, and to explore the appropriate conditions for performing urgent liver transplantation.

METHODS

We assessed the COSSH-ACLF grades of HBV-ACLF patients at different time points from June 2013 to May 2019 at Huashan Hospital in Shanghai, China, and analyzed the relationship between the change in grade and patient prognosis.

RESULTS

A total of 207 HBV-ACLF patients were enrolled, of which 79 underwent urgent liver transplantation. Their COSSH-ACLF grades were calculated at diagnosis, 3-7 days after diagnosis, and on the final day. Most of the final ACLF grades were consistent with their corresponding grades at days 3-7 after diagnosis (62.5%), while only 44.5% were in accordance with the initial grades at diagnosis. In patients who had a poor prognosis (initial ACLF-3 and ACLF-2 or -3 at days 3-7), the 28-day survival rate was 93.3% in those who underwent transplantation and 6.8% in those who did not (P < 0.0001). However, in patients who had a good prognosis (ACLF-0 or ACLF-1 at days 3-7), the 28-day survival rate was 100% in transplanted patients and 91.5% in non-transplanted patients (P = 0.236).

CONCLUSIONS

Reevaluation of the COSSH-ACLF grade 3-7 days after diagnosis could potentially show an indication for urgent liver transplantation.

Early Diagnostic Biomarkers of Sepsis for Patients with Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure: A Multicenter Study

INTRODUCTION

Sepsis is a complication in acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) patients associated with high rates of mortality and morbidity. Early diagnosis of sepsis in ACLF patients can improve prognosis. This study aimed to explore potential effective biomarkers for the early diagnosis of sepsis in ACLF patients.

METHODS

Ninety-four ACLF patients with sepsis were enrolled from 10 hospitals across China from January 2015 to June 2016 as well as 49 ACLF patients without infection from Xiangya Hospital. The first-day admission data and SOFA score and CLIF-SOFA score were collected. The differences of indicators between groups were compared with Kruskal-Wallis test. The receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve was analyzed to evaluate the diagnostic efficiency of the selected factors.

RESULTS

Soluble triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cell-1 (sTREM-1) and presepsin were significantly higher in ACLF-sepsis patients compared with ACLF patients with no infection (P < 0.001). sTREM-1 and presepsin presented higher diagnostic value in sepsis for ACLF patients compared with other biomarkers [white blood cells (WBC), procalcitonin (PCT) and C-reactive protein (CRP)]. Combining sTREM-1 or presepsin with the CLIF-SOFA score increased the diagnostic efficiency (AUC = 0.876 or AUC = 0.913, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

sTREM-1 and presepsin are potential biomarkers for the early diagnosis of sepsis in ACLF patients. The combination of presepsin and the CLIF-SOFA score is a promising method for diagnosing sepsis in ACLF patients.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov identifier, NCT02457637.

Predicting severe clinical events by learning about life-saving actions and outcomes using distant supervision

Medical error is a leading cause of patient death in the United States. Among the different types of medical errors, harm to patients caused by doctors missing early signs of deterioration is especially challenging to address due to the heterogeneity of patients' physiological patterns. In this study, we implemented risk prediction models using the gradient boosted tree method to derive risk estimates for acute onset diseases in the near future. The prediction model uses physiological variables as input signals and the time of the administration of outcome-related interventions and discharge diagnoses as labels. We examine four categories of acute onset illness: acute heart failure (AHF), acute lung injury (ALI), acute kidney injury (AKI), and acute liver failure (ALF). To develop and test the model, we consider data from two sources: 23,578 admissions to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) from the MIMIC-3 dataset (Beth-Israel Hospital) and 16,612 ICU admissions on hospitals affiliated with our institution (University of Washington Medical Center and Harborview Medical Center, the UW-CDR dataset). We systematically identify outcome-related interventions for each acute organ failure, then use them, along with discharge diagnoses, to label proxy events to train gradient boosted trees. The trained models achieve the highest F1 score with a value of 0.6018 when predicting the need for life-saving interventions for ALI within the next 24 h in the MIMIC-3 dataset while showing a median F1 score of 0.3850 from all acute organ failures in both datasets. The approach also achieves the highest F1 score of 0.6301 when classifying a patient's ALI status at the time of discharge from the MIMIC-3 dataset, with a median F1 score of 0.4307 in both datasets. This study shows the potential for using the time of outcome-related intervention administrations and discharge diagnoses as labels to train supervised machine learning models that predict the risk of acute onset illnesses.

The Management of Glucocorticoid Therapy in Liver Failure

Liver failure is characterized by rapid progression and high mortality. Excessive systemic inflammation is considered as the trigger of liver failure. Glucocorticoids (GCs) can rapidly suppress excessive inflammatory reactions and immune response. GCs have been applied in the treatment of liver failure since the 1970s. However, until now, the use of GCs in the treatment of liver failure has been somewhat unclear and controversial. New research regarding the molecular mechanisms of GCs may explain the controversial actions of GCs in liver failure. More results should be confirmed in a larger randomized clinical trial; this can aid the discovery of better definitions in terms of treatment schedules according to different clinical settings. Meanwhile, the timing and dosing of GCs in the treatment of liver failure should also be explored.

Acute on chronic liver failure in non-alcoholic fatty liver and alcohol associated liver disease

Acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF) presents acutely with multiple organ failure and is precipitated by an acute event. The syndrome has high short-term mortality with a potential of returning to baseline liver function if the precipitating event is controlled and patient/s survive the acute event. With heterogeneous definition across the globe of this syndrome, there is a clinical unmet need to homogenize this definition as basis for developing pathogenesis targets, collaboration across countries and centers, and identifying new therapeutic targets. Although, the syndrome can occur in any chronic liver disease with or without cirrhosis, the increasing prevalence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and alcohol associated liver disease (AALD) all across the world, this review will discuss specific issues regarding ACLF among patients with chronic liver disease from NAFLD and ALD.

Management of Sepsis in Patients With Cirrhosis: Current Evidence and Practical Approach

Sepsis in patients with cirrhosis is associated with high mortality. An impaired immune response accounts for the increased infection risk observed in these patients. Hemodynamic and systemic changes suggestive of sepsis may be observed in patients with cirrhosis in the absence of infection; therefore, diagnosis and treatment of sepsis may be delayed. The optimal management of the critically ill patient with sepsis and cirrhosis has not been well established and is generally extrapolated from consensus guidelines and expert recommendations made for management of patients without cirrhosis with sepsis. Despite the lack of strong evidence, we propose a contemporary pragmatic approach to sepsis management in patients with cirrhosis, including the choice of fluids, vasopressors, and antibiotics.

Copeptin – a biomarker of short-term mortality risk (7 days) in patients with end-stage liver disease

Background

For many patients with end-stage liver disease, liver transplantation represents the only curative therapy. Transplant recipients are scored and ranked using the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD/MELD-Na). Circulatory impairment is known to deteriorate outcomes; however, it is not incorporated into the current allocation system’s score. The aim of our study is to analyze the predictive value of copeptin as a biomarker of circulatory impairment and increased short-term mortality risk in patients with end-stage liver disease.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective observational study of 615 patients with end-stage liver disease. Patients were recruited using assessments performed during the evaluation process for liver transplantation. Copeptin values were analyzed in comparison to MELD-Na, interleukin 6 (IL-6), and C-reactive protein (CRP).

Results

Elevated levels of copeptin, IL-6 and CRP, as well as high MELD-Na scores, were significantly correlated with mortality. In a comparison of copeptin-tertiles, patients in group T3 (16.3 pmol/L or more) showed a significantly higher mortality risk (hazard ratio 11.2, p < 0.001). After adjusting for MELD-Na, copeptin remains an independent predictor of mortality. It shows its greatest prognostic strength in short-term mortality, where it performs comparable to MELD-Na (AUROC for 7 day-mortality, 0.941/0.939; p = 0.981) and shows an additional predictive value to MELD-Na for short-term mortality (7 days, p: 0.046; 30 days, p: 0.006).

Conclusions

Copeptin presents a valuable individual biomarker in detecting patients at risk for short-term mortality. Further studies should be performed to confirm our findings.

Risk factors and outcomes of acute respiratory distress syndrome in critically ill patients with cirrhosis

AIM

Prior randomized controlled trials of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) excluded critically ill patients with cirrhosis. Data regarding risk factors for ARDS development and outcomes from ARDS in patients with cirrhosis are scarce. We sought to characterize outcomes from ARDS in patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

An observational cohort of patients with cirrhosis admitted to an intensive care unit at a high-volume liver transplant center between 1 January 2012 and 31 December 2014 were reviewed. ARDS cases were identified according to the Berlin definition. Potential risk factors were examined in multivariable logistic regression analysis for ARDS development. Outcomes including in-hospital mortality were compared between ARDS and non-ARDS patients.

RESULTS

A total of 559 patients met the inclusion criteria and 45 (8.1%) developed ARDS. Differences between ARDS and non-ARDS patients included sepsis, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease - Sodium score, and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score. In-hospital mortality was higher in cirrhotic patients with ARDS compared with those without ARDS (82.2% vs. 27.6%, P < 0.001). In multivariable analysis, acute-on-chronic liver failure (OR 8.69, 95% CI 2.28-33.18, P < 0.01) and shock on intensive care unit admission (OR 3.13, 95% CI 1.57-6.24, P = 0.001) were associated with ARDS development, whereas etiology of cirrhosis or alcohol use were not.

CONCLUSIONS

Acute-on-chronic liver failure and shock on intensive care unit admission were risk factors for ARDS development, whereas etiology of cirrhosis and alcohol were not. Mortality from ARDS was markedly increased in patients with cirrhosis. Early recognition and treatment for infection might be important for improving the high mortality in this group of patients.

Quantification of circulating miR-125b-5p predicts survival in chronic hepatitis B patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure

AIMS

To analyze the role of serum miR-125b-5p in reflecting liver damage and predicting outcomes in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF).

METHODS

CHB patients with normal hepatic function (n = 100), moderate-to-severe liver damage (n = 90), and ACLF (n = 136) were included. Among hepatitis B virus (HBV)-ACLF patients, 86 and 50 were in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. Serum miR-125b-5p level was measured by quantitative real-time PCR.

RESULTS

Serum miR-125b-5p level increased with disease progression, and serum miR-125b-5p level was lower in surviving than in dead HBV-ACLF patients. Among HBV-ACLF patients, miR-125b-5p positively correlated with total bilirubin (TBil; r = 0.214, p < 0.05) and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score (r = 0.382, p < 0.001) and negatively correlated with prothrombin activity(PTA; r = -0.215, p < 0.05). MiR-122 showed a contrasting performance compared with miR-125b-5p. Cox regression analysis showed that miR-125b-5p, miR-122, and PTA were independent survival predictors for HBV-ACLF, and low miR-125b-5p and high miR-122 levels may predict a longer survival in HBV-ACLF. MiR-125b-5p (AUC = 0.814) had a higher performance for survival prediction in HBV-ACLF compared with miR-122 (AUC = 0.804), PTA (AUC = 0.762), MELD score (AUC = 0.799), and TBil (AUC = 0.670) alone; predictive effectiveness of miR-125b-5p was increased by combination with miR-122 (AUC = 0.898). MiR-125b-5p was an effective predictor of HBV-ACLF outcomes in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

MiR-125b-5p increase is associated with severity of liver damage; high serum miR-125b-5p may serve as a predictor for poor outcomes in HBV-ACLF cases.

The Role of the CLIF-C OF and the 2016 MELD in Prognosis of Cirrhosis with and without Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure

INTRODUCTION AND AIM

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is defined by the development of acute deterioration of liver function associated with failure of other organs and high short-term mortality in patients with chronic liver disease (CLD). There is no consensus on the diagnostic criteria, and its independence from ordinary decompensation of CLD has frequently been questioned. This study aimed to identify and characterize this condition and to test the CLIF-C OF score comparing it to the 2016-MELD (with sodium) and the Child-Pugh.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

18-month prospective observational study with systematic inclusion of admitted patients with CLD decompensation.

RESULTS

39 patients had ACLF (33.1%). These patients experienced higher 28-day and 90-day mortality, when compared to patients without ACLF (43.6% and 64.1% vs. 2.5% and 7.6% respectively, p < 0.0001). ACLF was linked with a higher acute infection rate (74.4%). For all patients (N = 118), the scores 2016-MELD, CLIF-C OF and Child-Pugh showed an area under the curve (AUC) for 28-day mortality of 0.908, 0.844, 0.753 and for 90-day of 0.902, 0.814, 0.724 respectively, p < 0.0001 for all scores. The 90-day mortality 2016-MELD AUC was greater than the CLIF-C OF AUC, p = 0.021. Within ACLF patients, the 2016-MELD, CLIF-C ACLF and Child-Pugh scores showed an AUC of 0.774, 0.734, 0.584 (28-day) and 0.880, 0.771, 0.603 (90-day); for 2016-MELD p = 0.004 (28-day) and p < 0.0001 (90-day).

CONCLUSION

ACLF is a frequent and relevant condition, associated with high mortality. The CLIF-C OF score revealed good accuracy and diagnoses ACLF when it is present. However, the 2016-MELD performed better for 90-day mortality prediction.

Successful Pharmacotherapy for Multiple Acute Decompensation Events in a Cirrhotic Patient with Acute-on-chronic Liver Failure: A Case Report

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a potentially lethal syndrome, which is characterized by an acute deterioration of liver function in patients with chronic liver diseases. The present paper reported that an alcoholic cirrhotic patient with ACLF developed septic shock, hydrothorax, ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, acute kidney injury, and acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding at the same hospitalization and was successfully rescued by pharmacotherapy alone without any invasive intervention.

Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure: Getting Ready for Prime Time?

Acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF) is the culmination of chronic liver disease and extrahepatic organ failures, which is associated with a high short-term mortality and immense health care expenditure. There are varying definitions for organ failures and ACLF in Europe, North America, and Asia. These differing definitions need to be reconciled to enhance progress in the field. The pathogenesis of ACLF is multifactorial and related to interactions between the immunoinflammatory system, microbiota, and the various precipitating factors. Individual organ failures related to the kidney, brain, lungs, and circulation have cumulative adverse effects on mortality and are often complicated or precipitated by infections. Strategies to prevent and rapidly treat these organ failures are paramount in improving survival. With the aging population and paucity of organs for liver transplant, the prognosis of ACLF patients is poor, highlighting the need for novel therapeutic strategies. The role of liver transplant in ACLF is evolving and needs further investigation across large consortia. A role for early palliative care and management of frailty as approaches to alleviate disease burden and improve patient-reported outcomes is being increasingly recognized.

CONCLUSION

ACLF is a clinically relevant syndrome that is epidemic worldwide and requires a dedicated multinational approach focused on prognostication and management; investigations are underway worldwide to prepare ACLF for prime time. (Hepatology 2018; 00:000-000).

HINT: a novel prognostic model for patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure

BACKGROUND

HBV-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) deteriorates rapidly in the short term, which necessitates accurate initial clinical decision making.

AIMS

To develop a novel prognostic score for patients with HBV-ACLF and clarify the role of thyroid hormones in HBV-ACLF.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort of 635 HBV-ACLF patients was enrolled to develop and validate a novel prognostic score for HBV-ACLF. Additionally, a cross-sectional cohort (n = 199) and a prospective longitudinal HBV-ACLF cohort (n = 56) were recruited to clarify the association between thyroid hormone status and the 30-day mortality of HBV-ACLF.

RESULTS

HINT, a novel prognostic score based on hepatic encephalopathy, INR, neutrophil count, and thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) using the deriving cohort (n = 426), was significantly higher in non-survivors than survivors (1.17 ± 2.38 vs -1.87 ± 1.26, P < 0.0001). The AUROC of HINT for 30-day mortality was 0.889, which was significantly higher than that of the Child-Pugh, MELD, CLIF-SOFA, CLIF-C ACLF, and COSSH-ACLF scores (all P < 0.05). These results were confirmed in the validation cohort (n = 209), except that the AUROC of HINT was comparable to that of COSSH-ACLF (P = 0.357). Among thyroid hormones, only the TSH level on admission was significantly lower in non-survivors than in survivors (P = 0.01). During the 14-day longitudinal observation, TSH levels increased significantly in the improvement group (P < 0.001) but did not change in the deterioration or fluctuation groups, and gradually increased in survivors (P < 0.001) but not in non-survivors.

CONCLUSIONS

HINT, as a prognostic score for HBV-ACLF, is simpler than and superior to the Child-Pugh, MELD, CLIF-SOFA, and CLIF-C ACLF scores and at least comparable with the COSSH-ACLF score. Sequential TSH measurements may facilitate prediction of the clinical course of ACLF.

The intensive care unit course and outcome in acute-on-chronic liver failure are comparable to other populations

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is characterized by acute decompensation of cirrhosis, development of organ failure and high short-term mortality. Whether the outcome in patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) with ACLF differs from other ICU populations is unknown. We compared the clinical course and host response in ICU patients with or without ACLF, matched for baseline severity of illness scores and characteristics.

METHODS

From the large prospective EPaNIC randomized control trial database (n = 4,640), 133 patients were identified with cirrhosis of whom 71 fulfilled the Chronic Liver Failure Consortium criteria for ACLF. These patients were matched for type and severity of illness and demographics to 71 septic and 71 medical ICU patients from the same database without chronic liver disease. Clinical, biochemical and outcome parameters were compared in this cohort study of 213 patients. In a subset of 100 patients, day 1 serum cytokines were quantified.

RESULTS

The outcome of ACLF, when compared to septic or medical ICU patients, matched for baseline parameters of illness severity, was similar regarding length of ICU stay, development of new infections, organ failure and septic shock. ICU, hospital and 90-day mortality were similar between the groups. C-reactive protein and platelet levels were lower in patients with ACLF throughout the first week. Cytokines, including IL-10, IL-1β, IL-6, and IL-8, were similarly elevated in ACLF and septic ICU patients on day 1. However, TNF-α levels were higher in patients with ACLF.

CONCLUSION

Patients with ACLF admitted to the ICU showed comparable clinical and ICU outcomes as ICU patients without chronic liver disease, but with similar baseline severity of illness characteristics. This suggests that ICU admission criteria should not be different in ACLF populations.

LAY SUMMARY

Liver function may abruptly deteriorate in patients with chronic liver disease with cirrhosis, often resulting in these patients being admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) with organ failure. Previous studies have indicated that this sudden deterioration, called acute-on-chronic liver failure is associated with very high mortality rates, which often resulted in deferred ICU care because of a perception of futility. Our study now shows that the ICU course and outcome are not different when patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure are compared to other ICU patients matched for severity of illness. This demonstrates that patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure deserve the same ICU care given to other ICU populations.

Enhancer of zeste homolog 2-catalysed H3K27 trimethylation plays a key role in acute-on-chronic liver failure via TNF-mediated pathway

Acute-on-chronic liver failure is mainly due to host immunity self-destruction. The histone H3 lysine 27 (H3K27) trimethylating enzyme, enhancer of zeste homolog 2 (EZH2) mediates epigenetic silencing of gene expression and regulates immunity, also involves pathogenesis of several liver diseases. The current study was to determine the role of methyltransferase EZH2 and its catalysed H3K27 trimethylation (H3K27me3) in liver failure, and to further investigate the potential target for liver failure treatment. EZH2 and its catalysed H3K27me3 were determined in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) from liver failure patients and Kupffer cells from experimental mice. Furthermore, GSK126 (an inhibitor for EZH2 trimethylation function) was applied in liver failure mice in vivo, and lipopolysaccharide-stimulated mononuclear cells in vitro. EZH2 and H3K27me3 were significantly upregulated in human PBMC from liver failure patients or murine Kupffer cells from the liver failure animals, respectively. GSK126 ameliorated disease severity in liver failure mice, which maybe attribute to down-regulate circulating and hepatic proinflammatory cytokines, especially TNF via reducing H3K27me3. In-depth chromatin immunoprecipitation analysis unravelled that decreased enrichment of H3K27me3 on Tnf promotor, resulting in TNF elevation in Kupffer cells from liver failure mice. Nuclear factor kappa B (NF-κB) and protein kinase B (Akt) signalling pathways were activated upon lipopolysaccharide stimulation, but attenuated by using GSK126, accompanied with decreased TNF in vitro. In conclusion, EZH2 and H3K27me3 contributed to the pathogenesis of liver failure via triggering TNF and other indispensable proinflammatory cytokines. EZH2 was to modify H3K27me3 enrichment, as well as, activation of the downstream NF-κB and Akt signalling pathways.

Clinical performance of stem cell therapy in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Stem cell therapy has been applied in the treatment of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). However, its clinical efficiency is still debatable. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis is to evaluate the clinical efficiency of stem cell therapy in the treatment of ACLF.

METHODS

The Cochrane Library, OVID, EMBASE, and PUBMED were searched to December 2017. Both randomized and non-randomized studies, assessing stem cell therapy in patients with ACLF, were included. The outcome measures were total bilirubin (TBIL), alanine transaminase (ALT), international normalized ratio (INR), albumin (ALB), and the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score. The quality of evidence was assessed by GRADEpro.

RESULTS

Four randomized controlled trials and six non-randomized controlled trials were included. The TBIL levels significantly decreased at 1-, 3-, 12-month after the stem cell therapy (p = 0.0008; p = 0.04; p = 0.007). The ALT levels decreased significantly compared with the control group in the short-term (p < 0.00001). There was no obvious change in the INR level compared with the control groups (p = 0.64). The ALB levels increased markedly as compared with the control groups (p < 0.0001). The significant difference can be found in MELD score between stem cell therapy and control groups (p = 0.008). Further subgroup analysis for 3-month clinical performance according to the stem cell types have also been performed.

CONCLUSION

This study suggests that the clinical outcomes of stem cell therapy were satisfied in patients with ACLF in the short-term. MSCs may be better than BM-MNCs in the stem cells transplantation of ACLF. However, more attention should focus on clinical trials in large-volume centers.

Algorithm for Screening of Adrenal Function in Stable Patients with Cirrhosis

INTRODUCTION AND AIMS

Adrenal insufficiency (AI) is common in patients with cirrhosis. We aimed to assess the presence of AI in stable patients with cirrhosis using the gold-standard insulin tolerance test (ITT) and to propose an algorithm for screening AI in these patients.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We studied 40 stable patients with cirrhosis. We determined the basal total (BTC) and peak cortisol (PTC) levels. Using the ITT, we defined AI as a serum PTC < 18 μg/dL at 30 min after insulin-induced hypoglycemia. We assessed the diagnostic accuracy of BTC in different stages of liver disease to discriminate between those with NAF and AI.

RESULTS

Of the 40 patients, 24 (60%) presented with AI. Child-Pugh and MELD scores differed between the NAF and AI groups (Child-Pugh: NAF 7.2 ± 1.7 vs. AI 8.8 ± 2.4, p = 0.024 and MELD: NAF 9.9 ± 2.5 vs. AI 14.9 ± 6.3, p = 0.001). The BTC level was lower in patients with AI than in those with NAF (7.2 ± 2.4 vs. 12.5 ± 5.2, p < 0.001). A BTC value ≤ 10.0 μg/dL had a 96% sensitivity (negative predictive value: 90%) for identifying AI. This cutoff value (BTC ≤ 10.0 μg/dL) provided 100% specificity (positive predictive value: 100%) in patients with advanced liver disease (Child-Pugh ≥ 9 or MELD ≥ 12).

CONCLUSION

An algorithm including the use of BTC and the severity of liver disease may be a useful and simple method for assessing adrenal function in stable patients with cirrhosis.

A novel dynamic model for predicting outcome in patients with hepatitis B virus related acute-on-chronic liver failure

Aim

It is challenging to predict the outcome of patients with hepatitis B virus related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) through existing prognostic models. Our aim was to establish a novel dynamic model to improve the predictive efficiency of 30-day mortality in HBV-ACLF patients.

Methods

305 patients who were diagnosed as HBV-ACLF (derivation cohort, n=211; validation cohort, n=94) were included in this study. The HBV-ACLF dynamic (HBV-ACLFD) model was constructed based on the daily levels of predictive variables in 7 days after diagnosis combined with baseline risk factors by multivariate logistic regression analysis. The HBV-ACLFD model was compared with the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score, end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, and MELD within corporation of serum sodium (MELD-Na) score by the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curves (AUROC).

Results

The HBV-ACLFD model demonstrated excellent discrimination with AUROC of 0.848 in the derivation cohort and of 0.813 in the validation cohort (p=0.620). The performance of the HBV-ACLFD model appeared to be superior to MELD score, MELD-Na score and CTP score (P<0.0001).

Conclusion

The HBV-ACLFD model can accurately predict 30-day mortality in patients with HBV-ACLF, which is helpful to select appropriate clinical procedures, so as to relieve the social and economic burden.

Impact of acute-on-chronic liver failure on 90-day mortality following a first liver transplantation

BACKGROUND

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is associated with a significant short-term mortality rate (23%-74%), depending on the number of organ failures. Some patients present with ACLF at the time of liver transplantation (LT). The aim of this study was to assess whether ACLF was also a prognostic factor after LT and, if applicable, to construct a score that could predict 90-day mortality.

METHODS

Three hundred and fifty cirrhotic patients, who underwent LT between January 2008 and December 2013, were enrolled. We used ACLF grades according to EASL-CLIF consortium criteria to categorize the cirrhotic patients. A propensity score was applied with an Inverse Probability Treatment Weighting in a Cox model. A predictive score of early mortality after LT was generated.

RESULTS

One hundred and forty patients (40%) met the criteria for ACLF. The overall mortality rate at 90 days post-transplant was 10.6% (37/350 patients). ACLF at the time of LT (HR: 5.78 [3.42-9.77], P<.001) was an independent predictor of 90-day mortality. Infection occurring during the month before LT, high recipient age and male recipient, the reason for LT and a female donor were also independent risk factors for early mortality. Using these factors, we have proposed a model to predict 90-day mortality after LT.

CONCLUSIONS

LT is feasible in cirrhotic patients with ACLF. However, we have shown that ACLF is a significant and independent predictor of 90-day mortality. We propose a score that can identify candidate cirrhotic patients in whom LT might be associated with futile LT.

Validation of prognostic scores to predict short-term mortality in patients with HBV-related acute-on-chronic liver failure: The CLIF-C OF is superior to MELD, CLIF SOFA, and CLIF-C ACLF

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients has a high short-term mortality. Identification of effective models to predict the short-term mortality may enable early intervention and improve patients' prognosis. We aim to assess the performance of the CLIF Consortium Organ Failure score (CLIF-C OFs), CLIF sequential organ failure assessment score (CLIF-SOFAs), CLIF Consortium ACLF score (CLIF-C ACLFs), ACLF grade, and model for end-stage liver disease score (MELDs) in predicting the short-term mortality in CHB patients with ACLF.Among the 155 consecutive adult patients with liver failure as a discharge diagnosis were screened, and all the patients were treated at the Department of Infectious Diseases, Huashan Hospital, Fudan University (Shanghai, China) from January 2010 to February 2016. The diagnosis of ACLF was based on the criteria formalized by the ACLF consensus recommendations of the Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver (APASL). Diagnostic accuracy for predicting short-term (28-day) mortality was calculated for CLIF-C OFs, CLIF-SOFAs, CLIF-C ACLFs, ACLF grade, and MELDs in all patients.One hundred fifty-five consecutive adult liver failure patients were screened and 85 patients including 73 males and 12 females were enrolled. Overall, the 28-day transplant-free mortality was 32% in all patients, and 100% in those with severe early course (ACLF-3). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of CLIF-C OFs (AUROC: 0.906, P = .0306, compared with MELDs) was higher than those of CLIF-SOFAs (AUROC: 0.876), CLIF-C ACLFs (AUROC: 0.858), ACLF grade (AUROC: 0.857), and MELDs (AUROC: 0.838) for predicting short-term mortality. The cut-point for baseline CLIF-C OFs in predicting death was 8.5, with 67% sensitivity, 90% specificity, and AUROC of 0.906 (95% CI: 0.8450-0.9679).The results indicate that short-term mortality is high in patients with ACLF and CLIF Consortium Organ Failure score is superior to MELD, CLIF SOFA, and CLIF-C ACLF in predicting its short-term mortality.

Plasma Apolipoprotein A-V Predicts Long-term Survival in Chronic Hepatitis B Patients with Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure

Hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) is a life-threatening condition, and the lipid metabolism disorder is common in the development of this disease. This prospective observational study aimed to define the characteristics of plasma apolipoprotein A-V (apoA-V) in long-term outcome prediction of HBV-ACLF, and a total of 330 HBV-ACLF patients were included and followed for more than 12 months. In this cohort, the 4-week, 12-week, 24-week and 48-week cumulative mortality of HBV-ACLF was 18.2%(60/330), 50.9%(168/330), 59.7%(197/330) and 63.3%(209/330), respectively. As compared to survivors, the non-survivors had significantly lower concentrations of plasma apoA-V on admission. Plasma apoA-V concentrations were positively correlated with prothrombin time activity (PTA), and negatively correlated with interleukin-10, tumor necrosis factor-α, and iMELD scores. Though plasma apoA-V, PTA, total bilirubin(TBil) and blood urea nitrogen(BUN) were all independent factors to predict one-year outcomes of HBV-ACLF, plasma apoA-V had the highest prediction accuracy. And its optimal cutoff value for one-year survival prediction was 480.00 ng/mL, which had a positive predictive value of 84.68% and a negative predictive value of 92.23%. In summary, plasma apoA-V decreases significantly in non-survivors of HBV-ACLF, and it may be regarded as a new predictive marker for the prognosis of patients with HBV-ACLF.

Risk stratification of decompensated cirrhosis patients by Chronic Liver Failure Consortium scores: Classification and regression tree analysis

AIM

Decompensated cirrhosis patients have greatly variable prognosis. The aim of the study was to carry out a risk stratification for those patients by Chronic Liver Failure (CLIF) Consortium scores.

METHODS

The performance of CLIF Consortium acute-on-chronic liver failure scores (CLIF-C ACLFs) and CLIF Consortium Acute Decompensation scores (CLIF-C ADs) were validated in 209 patients with ACLF and 1245 patients without ACLF at admission from the Ningbo Cohort. A classification and regression tree (CRT) analysis by CLIF-C ACLFs/CLIF-C ADs was carried out to stratify death risk among patients.

RESULTS

The CLIF-C ACLFs and CLIF-C ADs showed higher predictive accuracy than Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores, MELD plus serum sodium (MELD-Na) scores, and Child-Turcotte-Pugh classification (CP) at main time points (28, 90, 180, and 365 days), determined by area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve and concordance index in ACLF and no-ACLF patients at admission. The CRT analysis categorized ACLF patients into two groups (advanced and early ACLF), and no-ACLF patients into three groups (high-, medium-, and low-risk AD) according to risk of death. However, early ACLF and high-risk AD patients had comparable mortality at the main time points. The CRT model had a higher area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve than MELDs, MELD-Nas, and CPs in predicting prognosis in all patients.

CONCLUSIONS

The CLIF-C ACLF and CLIF-C AD are better prognostic scores than MELD, MELD-Na, and CP in predicting mortality of ACLF and no-ACLF patients. A combined use of CLIF- Sequential Organ Failure Assessment, CLIF-C ACLFs, and CLIF-C ADs could identify cirrhosis patients at high death risk and assist clinical decisions for management.