Longitudinal machine learning modeling of MS patient trajectories improves predictions of disability progression

Explainable machine learning on baseline MRI predicts multiple sclerosis trajectory descriptors

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a multifaceted neurological condition characterized by challenges in timely diagnosis and personalized patient management. The application of Artificial Intelligence (AI) to MS holds promises for early detection, accurate diagnosis, and predictive modeling. The objectives of this study are: 1) to propose new MS trajectory descriptors that could be employed in Machine Learning (ML) regressors and classifiers to predict patient evolution; 2) to explore the contribution of ML models in discerning MS trajectory descriptors using only baseline Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) studies. This study involved 446 MS patients who had a baseline MRI, at least two measurements of Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), and a 1-year follow-up. Patients were divided into two groups: 1) for model development and 2) for evaluation. Three descriptors: β1, β2, and EDSS(t), were related to baseline MRI parameters using regression and classification XGBoost models. Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) analysis enhanced model transparency by identifying influential features. The results of this study demonstrate the potential of AI in predicting MS progression using the proposed patient trajectories and baseline MRI scans, outperforming classic Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) methods. In conclusion, MS trajectory descriptors are crucial; incorporating AI analysis into MRI assessments presents promising opportunities to advance predictive capabilities. SHAP analysis enhances model interpretation, revealing feature importance for clinical decisions.

AI and disability: A systematic scoping review

Background: Artificial intelligence (AI) can enhance life experiences and present challenges for people with disabilities. Objectives: This study aims to investigate the relationship between AI and disability, exploring the potential benefits and challenges of using AI for people with disabilities. Methods: A systematic scoping review was conducted using eight online databases; 45 scholarly articles from the last 5 years were identified and selected for thematic analysis. Results: The review's findings revealed AI's potential to enhance healthcare; however, it showed a high prevalence of a narrow medical model of disability and an ableist perspective in AI research. This raises concerns about the perpetuation of biases and discrimination against individuals with disabilities in the development and deployment of AI technologies. Conclusion: We recommend shifting towards a social model of disability, promoting interdisciplinary collaboration, addressing AI bias and discrimination, prioritizing privacy and security in AI development, focusing on accessibility and usability, investing in education and training, and advocating for robust policy and regulatory frameworks. The review emphasizes the urgent need for further research to ensure that AI benefits all members of society equitably and that future AI systems are designed with inclusivity and accessibility as core principles.

Machine-learning-based prediction of disability progression in multiple sclerosis: An observational, international, multi-center study

BACKGROUND

Disability progression is a key milestone in the disease evolution of people with multiple sclerosis (PwMS). Prediction models of the probability of disability progression have not yet reached the level of trust needed to be adopted in the clinic. A common benchmark to assess model development in multiple sclerosis is also currently lacking.

METHODS

Data of adult PwMS with a follow-up of at least three years from 146 MS centers, spread over 40 countries and collected by the MSBase consortium was used. With basic inclusion criteria for quality requirements, it represents a total of 15, 240 PwMS. External validation was performed and repeated five times to assess the significance of the results. Transparent Reporting for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) guidelines were followed. Confirmed disability progression after two years was predicted, with a confirmation window of six months. Only routinely collected variables were used such as the expanded disability status scale, treatment, relapse information, and MS course. To learn the probability of disability progression, state-of-the-art machine learning models were investigated. The discrimination performance of the models is evaluated with the area under the receiver operator curve (ROC-AUC) and under the precision recall curve (AUC-PR), and their calibration via the Brier score and the expected calibration error. All our preprocessing and model code are available at https://gitlab.com/edebrouwer/ms_benchmark, making this task an ideal benchmark for predicting disability progression in MS.

FINDINGS

Machine learning models achieved a ROC-AUC of 0⋅71 ± 0⋅01, an AUC-PR of 0⋅26 ± 0⋅02, a Brier score of 0⋅1 ± 0⋅01 and an expected calibration error of 0⋅07 ± 0⋅04. The history of disability progression was identified as being more predictive for future disability progression than the treatment or relapses history.

CONCLUSIONS

Good discrimination and calibration performance on an external validation set is achieved, using only routinely collected variables. This suggests machine-learning models can reliably inform clinicians about the future occurrence of progression and are mature for a clinical impact study.

Interpretable prediction models for disability in older adults with hypertension: the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity and Happy Family Study

BACKGROUND

Older adults with hypertension have a high risk of disability, while an accurate risk prediction model is still lacking. This study aimed to construct interpretable disability prediction models for older Chinese with hypertension based on multiple time intervals.

METHODS

Data were collected from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity and Happy Family Study for 2008-2018. A total of 1602, 1108, and 537 older adults were included for the periods of 2008-2012, 2008-2014, and 2008-2018, respectively. Disability was measured by basic activities of daily living. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) was applied for feature selection. Five machine learning algorithms combined with LASSO set and full-variable set were used to predict 4-, 6-, and 10-year disability risk, respectively. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was used as the main metric for selection of the optimal model. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) was used to explore important predictors of the optimal model.

RESULTS

Random forest in full-variable set and XGBoost in LASSO set were the optimal models for 4-year prediction. Support vector machine was the optimal model for 6-year prediction on both sets. For 10-year prediction, deep neural network in full variable set and logistic regression in LASSO set were optimal models. Age ranked the most important predictor. Marital status, body mass index, score of Mini-Mental State Examination, and psychological well-being score were also important predictors.

CONCLUSIONS

Machine learning shows promise in screening out older adults at high risk of disability. Disability prevention strategies should specifically focus on older patients with unfortunate marriage, high BMI, and poor cognitive and psychological conditions.

Observational studies of treatment effectiveness in neurology

The capacity and power of data from cohorts, registries and randomized trials to provide answers to contemporary clinical questions in neurology has increased considerably over the past two decades. Novel sophisticated statistical methods are enabling us to harness these data to guide treatment decisions, but their complexity is making appraisal of clinical evidence increasingly demanding. In this review, we discuss several methodological aspects of contemporary research of treatment effectiveness in observational data in neurology, aimed at academic neurologists and analysts specializing in outcomes research. The review discusses specifics of the sources of observational data and their key features. It focuses on the limitations of observational data and study design, as well as statistical approaches aimed to overcome these limitations. Among the examples of leading clinical themes typically studied with analyses of observational data, the review discusses methodological approaches to comparative treatment effectiveness, development of diagnostic criteria and definitions of clinical outcomes. Finally, this review provides a brief summary of key points that will help clinical audience critically evaluate design and analytical aspects of studies of disease outcomes using observational data.

Prognostic models for predicting clinical disease progression, worsening and activity in people with multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic inflammatory disease of the central nervous system that affects millions of people worldwide. The disease course varies greatly across individuals and many disease-modifying treatments with different safety and efficacy profiles have been developed recently. Prognostic models evaluated and shown to be valid in different settings have the potential to support people with MS and their physicians during the decision-making process for treatment or disease/life management, allow stratified and more precise interpretation of interventional trials, and provide insights into disease mechanisms. Many researchers have turned to prognostic models to help predict clinical outcomes in people with MS; however, to our knowledge, no widely accepted prognostic model for MS is being used in clinical practice yet.

OBJECTIVES

To identify and summarise multivariable prognostic models, and their validation studies for quantifying the risk of clinical disease progression, worsening, and activity in adults with MS.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews from January 1996 until July 2021. We also screened the reference lists of included studies and relevant reviews, and references citing the included studies.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included all statistically developed multivariable prognostic models aiming to predict clinical disease progression, worsening, and activity, as measured by disability, relapse, conversion to definite MS, conversion to progressive MS, or a composite of these in adult individuals with MS. We also included any studies evaluating the performance of (i.e. validating) these models. There were no restrictions based on language, data source, timing of prognostication, or timing of outcome.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Pairs of review authors independently screened titles/abstracts and full texts, extracted data using a piloted form based on the Checklist for Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies (CHARMS), assessed risk of bias using the Prediction Model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST), and assessed reporting deficiencies based on the checklist items in Transparent Reporting of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis (TRIPOD). The characteristics of the included models and their validations are described narratively. We planned to meta-analyse the discrimination and calibration of models with at least three external validations outside the model development study but no model met this criterion. We summarised between-study heterogeneity narratively but again could not perform the planned meta-regression.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 57 studies, from which we identified 75 model developments, 15 external validations corresponding to only 12 (16%) of the models, and six author-reported validations. Only two models were externally validated multiple times. None of the identified external validations were performed by researchers independent of those that developed the model. The outcome was related to disease progression in 39 (41%), relapses in 8 (8%), conversion to definite MS in 17 (18%), and conversion to progressive MS in 27 (28%) of the 96 models or validations. The disease and treatment-related characteristics of included participants, and definitions of considered predictors and outcome, were highly heterogeneous amongst the studies. Based on the publication year, we observed an increase in the percent of participants on treatment, diversification of the diagnostic criteria used, an increase in consideration of biomarkers or treatment as predictors, and increased use of machine learning methods over time. Usability and reproducibility All identified models contained at least one predictor requiring the skills of a medical specialist for measurement or assessment. Most of the models (44; 59%) contained predictors that require specialist equipment likely to be absent from primary care or standard hospital settings. Over half (52%) of the developed models were not accompanied by model coefficients, tools, or instructions, which hinders their application, independent validation or reproduction. The data used in model developments were made publicly available or reported to be available on request only in a few studies (two and six, respectively). Risk of bias We rated all but one of the model developments or validations as having high overall risk of bias. The main reason for this was the statistical methods used for the development or evaluation of prognostic models; we rated all but two of the included model developments or validations as having high risk of bias in the analysis domain. None of the model developments that were externally validated or these models' external validations had low risk of bias. There were concerns related to applicability of the models to our research question in over one-third (38%) of the models or their validations. Reporting deficiencies Reporting was poor overall and there was no observable increase in the quality of reporting over time. The items that were unclearly reported or not reported at all for most of the included models or validations were related to sample size justification, blinding of outcome assessors, details of the full model or how to obtain predictions from it, amount of missing data, and treatments received by the participants. Reporting of preferred model performance measures of discrimination and calibration was suboptimal.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

The current evidence is not sufficient for recommending the use of any of the published prognostic prediction models for people with MS in clinical routine today due to lack of independent external validations. The MS prognostic research community should adhere to the current reporting and methodological guidelines and conduct many more state-of-the-art external validation studies for the existing or newly developed models.

Assessment of Prediction Tasks and Time Window Selection in Temporal Modeling of Electronic Health Record Data: a Systematic Review

Temporal electronic health record (EHR) data are often preferred for clinical prediction tasks because they offer more complete representations of a patient's pathophysiology than static data. A challenge when working with temporal EHR data is problem formulation, which includes defining the time windows of interest and the prediction task. Our objective was to conduct a systematic review that assessed the definition and reporting of concepts relevant to temporal clinical prediction tasks. We searched PubMed® and IEEE Xplore® databases for studies from January 1, 2010 applying machine learning models to EHR data for patient outcome prediction. Publications applying time-series methods were selected for further review. We identified 92 studies and summarized them by clinical context and definition and reporting of the prediction problem. For the time windows of interest, 12 studies did not discuss window lengths, 57 used a single set of window lengths, and 23 evaluated the relationship between window length and model performance. We also found that 72 studies had appropriate reporting of the prediction task. However, evaluation of prediction problem formulation for temporal EHR data was complicated by heterogeneity in assessing and reporting of these concepts. Even among studies modeling similar clinical outcomes, there were variations in terminology used to describe the prediction problem, rationale for window lengths, and determination of the outcome of interest. As temporal modeling using EHR data expands, minimal reporting standards should include time-series specific concerns to promote rigor and reproducibility in future studies and facilitate model implementation in clinical settings.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s41666-023-00143-4.

Predictive Models for Health Deterioration: Understanding Disease Pathways for Personalized Medicine

Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) methods are currently widely employed in medicine and healthcare. A PubMed search returns more than 100,000 articles on these topics published between 2018 and 2022 alone. Notwithstanding several recent reviews in various subfields of AI and ML in medicine, we have yet to see a comprehensive review around the methods' use in longitudinal analysis and prediction of an individual patient's health status within a personalized disease pathway. This review seeks to fill that gap. After an overview of the AI and ML methods employed in this field and of specific medical applications of models of this type, the review discusses the strengths and limitations of current studies and looks ahead to future strands of research in this field. We aim to enable interested readers to gain a detailed impression of the research currently available and accordingly plan future work around predictive models for deterioration in health status.

Clinical phenotypes and prognostic factors in persons with hip osteoarthritis undergoing total hip arthroplasty: protocol for a longitudinal prospective cohort study (HIPPROCLIPS)

BACKGROUND

Large heterogeneity exists in the clinical manifestation of hip osteoarthritis (OA). It is therefore not surprising that pain and disability in individuals with hip OA and after total hip arthroplasty (THA) cannot be explained by biomedical variables alone. Indeed, also maladaptive pain-related cognitions and emotions can contribute to pain and disability, and can lead to poor treatment outcomes. Traumatic experiences, mental disorders, self-efficacy and social support can influence stress appraisal and strategies to cope with pain, but their influence on pain and disability has not yet been established in individuals with hip OA undergoing THA. This study aims (1) to determine the influence of traumatic experiences and mental disorders on pain processing before and shortly after THA (2) to identify preoperative clinical phenotypes in individuals with hip OA eligible for THA, (3) to identify pre- and early postoperative prognostic factors for outcomes in pain and disability after THA, and (4) to identify postoperative clinical phenotypes in individuals after THA.

METHODS

This prospective longitudinal cohort study will investigate 200 individuals undergoing THA for hip OA. Phenotyping variables and candidate prognostic factors include pain-related fear-avoidance behaviour, perceived injustice, mental disorders, traumatic experiences, self-efficacy, and social support. Peripheral and central pain mechanisms will be assessed with thermal quantitative sensory testing. The primary outcome measure is the hip disability and osteoarthritis outcome score. Other outcome measures include performance-based measures, hip muscle strength, the patient-specific functional scale, pain intensity, global perceived effect, and outcome satisfaction. All these measurements will be performed before surgery, as well as 6 weeks, 3 months, and 12 months after surgery. Pain-related cognitions and emotions will additionally be assessed in the early postoperative phase, on the first, third, fifth, and seventh day after THA. Main statistical methods that will be used to answer the respective research questions include: LASSO regression, decision tree learning, gradient boosting algorithms, and recurrent neural networks.

DISCUSSION

The identification of clinical phenotypes and prognostic factors for outcomes in pain and disability will be a first step towards pre- and postoperative precision medicine for individuals with hip OA undergoing THA.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT05265858. Registered on 04/03/2022.

Machine learning-based prediction of disability risk in geriatric patients with hypertension for different time intervals

BACKGROUND

The risk of disability in older adults with hypertension is substantially high, and prediction of disability risk is crucial for subsequent management. This study aimed to construct prediction models of disability risk for geriatric patients with hypertension at different time intervals, as well as to assess the important predictors and influencing factors of disability.

METHODS

This study collected data from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity and Happy Family Study. There were 1576, 1083 and 506 hypertension patients aged 65+ in 2008 who were free of disability at baseline and had completed outcome information in follow-up of 2008-2012, 2008-2014, 2008-2018. We built five machine learning (ML) models to predict the disability risk. The classic statistical logistic regression (classic-LR) and shapley additive explanations (SHAP) was further introduced to explore possible causal factors and interpret the optimal models' decisions.

RESULTS

Among the five ML models, logistic regression, extreme gradient boosting, and deep neural network were the optimal models for detecting 4-, 6-, and 10-year disability risk with their AUC-ROCs reached 0.759, 0.728, 0.694 respectively. The classic-LR revealed potential casual factors for disability and the results of SHAP demonstrated important features for risk prediction, reinforcing the trust of decision makers towards black-box models.

CONCLUSION

The optimal models hold promise for screening out hypertensive old adults at high risk of disability to implement further targeted intervention and the identified key factors may be of additional value in analyzing the causal mechanisms of disability, thereby providing basis to practical application.

Combining Clinical and Genetic Data to Predict Response to Fingolimod Treatment in Relapsing Remitting Multiple Sclerosis Patients: A Precision Medicine Approach

A personalized approach is strongly advocated for treatment selection in Multiple Sclerosis patients due to the high number of available drugs. Machine learning methods proved to be valuable tools in the context of precision medicine. In the present work, we applied machine learning methods to identify a combined clinical and genetic signature of response to fingolimod that could support the prediction of drug response. Two cohorts of fingolimod-treated patients from Italy and France were enrolled and divided into training, validation, and test set. Random forest training and robust feature selection were performed in the first two sets respectively, and the independent test set was used to evaluate model performance. A genetic-only model and a combined clinical-genetic model were obtained. Overall, 381 patients were classified according to the NEDA-3 criterion at 2 years; we identified a genetic model, including 123 SNPs, that was able to predict fingolimod response with an AUROC= 0.65 in the independent test set. When combining clinical data, the model accuracy increased to an AUROC= 0.71. Integrating clinical and genetic data by means of machine learning methods can help in the prediction of response to fingolimod, even though further studies are required to definitely extend this approach to clinical applications.

Ensemble machine learning identifies genetic loci associated with future worsening of disability in people with multiple sclerosis

Limited studies have been conducted to identify and validate multiple sclerosis (MS) genetic loci associated with disability progression. We aimed to identify MS genetic loci associated with worsening of disability over time, and to develop and validate ensemble genetic learning model(s) to identify people with MS (PwMS) at risk of future worsening. We examined associations of 208 previously established MS genetic loci with the risk of worsening of disability; we learned ensemble genetic decision rules and validated the predictions in an external dataset. We found 7 genetic loci (rs7731626: HR 0.92, P = 2.4 × 10^-5; rs12211604: HR 1.16, P = 3.2 × 10^-7; rs55858457: HR 0.93, P = 3.7 × 10^-7; rs10271373: HR 0.90, P = 1.1 × 10^-7; rs11256593: HR 1.13, P = 5.1 × 10^-57; rs12588969: HR = 1.10, P = 2.1 × 10^-10; rs1465697: HR 1.09, P = 1.7 × 10^-128) associated with risk worsening of disability; most of which were located near or tagged to 13 genomic regions enriched in peptide hormones and steroids biosynthesis pathways by positional and eQTL mapping. The derived ensembles produced a set of genetic decision rules that can be translated to provide additional prognostic values to existing clinical predictions, with the additional benefit of incorporating relevant genetic information into clinical decision making for PwMS. The present study extends our knowledge of MS progression genetics and provides the basis of future studies regarding the functional significance of the identified loci.

Evaluation of Disability Progression in Multiple Sclerosis via Magnetic-Resonance-Based Deep Learning Techniques

Short-term disability progression was predicted from a baseline evaluation in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) using their three-dimensional T1-weighted (3DT1) magnetic resonance images (MRI). One-hundred-and-eighty-one subjects diagnosed with MS underwent 3T-MRI and were followed up for two to six years at two sites, with disability progression defined according to the expanded-disability-status-scale (EDSS) increment at the follow-up. The patients’ 3DT1 images were bias-corrected, brain-extracted, registered onto MNI space, and divided into slices along coronal, sagittal, and axial projections. Deep learning image classification models were applied on slices and devised as ResNet50 fine-tuned adaptations at first on a large independent dataset and secondly on the study sample. The final classifiers’ performance was evaluated via the area under the curve (AUC) of the false versus true positive diagram. Each model was also tested against its null model, obtained by reshuffling patients’ labels in the training set. Informative areas were found by intersecting slices corresponding to models fulfilling the disability progression prediction criteria. At follow-up, 34% of patients had disability progression. Five coronal and five sagittal slices had one classifier surviving the AUC evaluation and null test and predicted disability progression (AUC > 0.72 and AUC > 0.81, respectively). Likewise, fifteen combinations of classifiers and axial slices predicted disability progression in patients (AUC > 0.69). Informative areas were the frontal areas, mainly within the grey matter. Briefly, 3DT1 images may give hints on disability progression in MS patients, exploiting the information hidden in the MRI of specific areas of the brain.

Interpretable classifiers for prediction of disability trajectories using a nationwide longitudinal database

OBJECTIVES

To explore the heterogeneous disability trajectories and construct explainable machine learning models for effective prediction of long-term disability trajectories and understanding the mechanisms of predictions among the elderly Chinese at community level.

METHODS

This study retrospectively collected data from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity and Happy Family Study between 2002 and 2018. A total of 4149 subjects aged 65 + in 2002 with completed activities of daily living (ADL) information for at least three waves were included. The mixed growth model was used to identify disability trajectories, and five machine learning models were further established to predict disability trajectories using epidemiological variables. An explainable approach was deployed to understand the model's decisions.

RESULTS

Three distinct disability trajectories, including normal class (77.3%), progressive class (15.5%), and high-onset class (7.2%), were identified for three-class prediction. The latter two were further merged into abnormal class, accompanied by normal class for two-class prediction. Machine learning, especially random forest and extreme gradient boosting achieved good performance in both two tasks. ADL, age, leisure activity, cognitive function, and blood pressure were key predictors.

CONCLUSION

The findings suggest that machine learning showed good performance and maybe of additional value in analyzing quality indicators in predicting disability trajectories, thereby providing basis to personalize intervention measures.

Motor evoked potentials for multiple sclerosis, a multiyear follow-up dataset

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic disease affecting millions of people worldwide. Through the demyelinating and axonal pathology of MS, the signal conduction in the central nervous system is affected. Evoked potential measurements allow clinicians to monitor this process and can be used for decision support. We share a dataset that contains motor evoked potential (MEP) measurements, in which the brain is stimulated and the resulting signal is measured in the hands and feet. This results in time series of 100 milliseconds long. Typically, both hands and feet are measured in one hospital visit. The dataset contains 5586 visits of 963 patients, performed in day-to-day clinical care over a period of 6 years. The dataset consists of approximately 100,000 MEP. Clinical metadata such as the expanded disability status scale, sex, and age is also available. This dataset can be used to explore the role of evoked potentials in MS research and patient care. It may also be used as a benchmark for time series analysis and predictive modelling.

Measurement(s)	Abnormal upper-limb motor evoked potentials • Abnormal lower-limb motor evoked potentials • Kurtzke Expanded Disability Status Scale Clinical Classification
Technology Type(s)	Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation • performing a clinical assessment
Factor Type(s)	Date of birth • Sex • Measurement date
Sample Characteristic - Organism	Homo sapiens
Sample Characteristic - Location	Belgium

Validation of a machine learning approach to estimate expanded disability status scale scores for multiple sclerosis

Background

Disability assessment using the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) is important to inform treatment decisions and monitor the progression of multiple sclerosis. Yet, EDSS scores are documented infrequently in electronic medical records.

Objective

To validate a machine learning model to estimate EDSS scores for multiple sclerosis patients using clinical notes from neurologists.

Methods

A machine learning model was developed to estimate EDSS scores on specific encounter dates using clinical notes from neurologist visits. The OM1 MS Registry data were used to create a training cohort of 2632 encounters and a separate validation cohort of 857 encounters, all with clinician-recorded EDSS scores. Model performance was assessed using the area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUC), positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV), calculated using a binarized version of the outcome. The Spearman R and Pearson R values were calculated. The model was then applied to encounters without clinician-recorded EDSS scores in the MS Registry.

Results

The model had a PPV of 0.85, NPV of 0.85, and AUC of 0.91. The model had a Spearman R value of 0.75 and Pearson R value of 0.74 when evaluating performance using the continuous estimated EDSS and clinician-recorded EDSS scores. Application of the model to eligible encounters resulted in the generation of eEDSS scores for an additional 190,282 encounters from 13,249 patients.

Conclusion

EDSS scores can be estimated with very good performance using a machine learning model applied to clinical notes, thus increasing the utility of real-world data sources for research purposes.

Clinical and Research Applications of the Electronic Medical Record in Multiple Sclerosis: A Narrative Review of Current Uses and Future Applications

BACKGROUND

The electronic medical record (EMR) has revolutionized health care workflow and delivery. It has evolved from a clinical adjunct to a multifaceted tool, with uses relevant to patient care and research.

METHODS

A MEDLINE literature review was conducted to identify data regarding the use of EMR for multiple sclerosis (MS) clinical care and research.

RESULTS

Of 282 relevant articles identified, 29 were included. A variety of EMR integrated platforms with features specific to MS have been designed, with options for documenting disease course, disability status, and treatment. Research efforts have focused on early diagnosis identification, relapse prediction, and surrogates for disability status.

CONCLUSIONS

The available platforms and associated research support the utility of harnessing EMR for MS care. The adoption of a core set of discrete EMR elements should be considered to support future research efforts and the ability to harmonize data across institutions.

Early Diagnosis of Multiple Sclerosis Using Swept-Source Optical Coherence Tomography and Convolutional Neural Networks Trained with Data Augmentation

BACKGROUND

The aim of this paper is to implement a system to facilitate the diagnosis of multiple sclerosis (MS) in its initial stages. It does so using a convolutional neural network (CNN) to classify images captured with swept-source optical coherence tomography (SS-OCT).

METHODS

SS-OCT images from 48 control subjects and 48 recently diagnosed MS patients have been used. These images show the thicknesses (45 × 60 points) of the following structures: complete retina, retinal nerve fiber layer, two ganglion cell layers (GCL+, GCL++) and choroid. The Cohen distance is used to identify the structures and the regions within them with greatest discriminant capacity. The original database of OCT images is augmented by a deep convolutional generative adversarial network to expand the CNN's training set.

RESULTS

The retinal structures with greatest discriminant capacity are the GCL++ (44.99% of image points), complete retina (26.71%) and GCL+ (22.93%). Thresholding these images and using them as inputs to a CNN comprising two convolution modules and one classification module obtains sensitivity = specificity = 1.0.

CONCLUSIONS

Feature pre-selection and the use of a convolutional neural network may be a promising, nonharmful, low-cost, easy-to-perform and effective means of assisting the early diagnosis of MS based on SS-OCT thickness data.