Modeling risky decision-making in nonhuman animals: shared core features

A critical review of risk-sensitive foraging

Foraging is risk sensitive if choices depend on the variability of returns from the options as well as their mean return. Risk-sensitive foraging is important in behavioural ecology, psychology and neurophysiology. It has been explained both in terms of mechanisms and in terms of evolutionary advantage. We provide a critical review, evaluating both mechanistic and evolutionary accounts. Some derivations of risk sensitivity from mechanistic models based on psychophysics are not convincing because they depend on an inappropriate use of Jensen's inequality. Attempts have been made to link risk sensitivity to the ecology of a species, but again these are not convincing. The field of risk-sensitive foraging has provided a focus for theoretical and empirical work and has yielded important insights, but we lack a simple and empirically defendable general account of it in either mechanistic or evolutionary terms. However, empirical analysis of choice sequences under theoretically motivated experimental designs and environmental settings appears a promising avenue for mapping the scope and relative merits of existing theories. Simply put, the devil is in the sequence.

Abstract Value Encoding in Neural Populations But Not Single Neurons

An important open question in neuroeconomics is how the brain represents the value of offers in a way that is both abstract (allowing for comparison) and concrete (preserving the details of the factors that influence value). Here, we examine neuronal responses to risky and safe options in five brain regions that putatively encode value in male macaques. Surprisingly, we find no detectable overlap in the neural codes used for risky and safe options, even when the options have identical subjective values (as revealed by preference) in any of the regions. Indeed, responses are weakly correlated and occupy distinct (semi-orthogonal) encoding subspaces. Notably, however, these subspaces are linked through a linear transform of their constituent encodings, a property that allows for comparison of dissimilar option types. This encoding scheme allows these regions to multiplex decision related processes: they can encode the detailed factors that influence offer value (here, risky and safety) but also directly compare dissimilar offer types. Together these results suggest a neuronal basis for the qualitatively different psychological properties of risky and safe options and highlight the power of population geometry to resolve outstanding problems in neural coding.SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT To make economic choices, we must have some mechanism for comparing dissimilar offers. We propose that the brain uses distinct neural codes for risky and safe offers, but that these codes are linearly transformable. This encoding scheme has the dual advantage of allowing for comparison across offer types while preserving information about offer type, which in turn allows for flexibility in changing circumstances. We show that responses to risky and safe offers exhibit these predicted properties in five different reward-sensitive regions. Together, these results highlight the power of population coding principles for solving representation problems in economic choice.

A structural and functional subdivision in central orbitofrontal cortex

Economic choice requires many cognitive subprocesses, including stimulus detection, valuation, motor output, and outcome monitoring; many of these subprocesses are associated with the central orbitofrontal cortex (cOFC). Prior work has largely assumed that the cOFC is a single region with a single function. Here, we challenge that unified view with convergent anatomical and physiological results from rhesus macaques. Anatomically, we show that the cOFC can be subdivided according to its much stronger (medial) or weaker (lateral) bidirectional anatomical connectivity with the posterior cingulate cortex (PCC). We call these subregions cOFCm and cOFCl, respectively. These two subregions have notable functional differences. Specifically, cOFCm shows enhanced functional connectivity with PCC, as indicated by both spike-field coherence and mutual information. The cOFCm-PCC circuit, but not the cOFCl-PCC circuit, shows signatures of relaying choice signals from a non-spatial comparison framework to a spatially framed organization and shows a putative bidirectional mutually excitatory pattern.

Choice-relevant information transformation along a ventrodorsal axis in the medial prefrontal cortex

Choice-relevant brain regions in prefrontal cortex may progressively transform information about options into choices. Here, we examine responses of neurons in four regions of the medial prefrontal cortex as macaques performed two-option risky choices. All four regions encode economic variables in similar proportions and show similar putative signatures of key choice-related computations. We provide evidence to support a gradient of function that proceeds from areas 14 to 25 to 32 to 24. Specifically, we show that decodability of twelve distinct task variables increases along that path, consistent with the idea that regions that are higher in the anatomical hierarchy make choice-relevant variables more separable. We also show progressively longer intrinsic timescales in the same series. Together these results highlight the importance of the medial wall in choice, endorse a specific gradient-based organization, and argue against a modular functional neuroanatomy of choice.

Continuous decisions

Humans and other animals evolved to make decisions that extend over time with continuous and ever-changing options. Nonetheless, the academic study of decision-making is mostly limited to the simple case of choice between two options. Here, we advocate that the study of choice should expand to include continuous decisions. Continuous decisions, by our definition, involve a continuum of possible responses and take place over an extended period of time during which the response is continuously subject to modification. In most continuous decisions, the range of options can fluctuate and is affected by recent responses, making consideration of reciprocal feedback between choices and the environment essential. The study of continuous decisions raises new questions, such as how abstract processes of valuation and comparison are co-implemented with action planning and execution, how we simulate the large number of possible futures our choices lead to, and how our brains employ hierarchical structure to make choices more efficiently. While microeconomic theory has proven invaluable for discrete decisions, we propose that engineering control theory may serve as a better foundation for continuous ones. And while the concept of value has proven foundational for discrete decisions, goal states and policies may prove more useful for continuous ones. This article is part of the theme issue 'Existence and prevalence of economic behaviours among non-human primates'.

Dopaminergic modulation of reward discounting in healthy rats: a systematic review and meta-analysis

RATIONALE

Although numerous studies have suggested that pharmacological alteration of the dopamine (DA) system modulates reward discounting, these studies have produced inconsistent findings.

OBJECTIVES

Here, we conducted a systematic review and pre-registered meta-analysis to evaluate DA drug-mediated effects on reward discounting of time, probability, and effort costs in studies of healthy rats. This produced a total of 1343 articles to screen for inclusion/exclusion. From the literature, we identified 117 effects from approximately 1549 individual rats.

METHODS

Using random effects with maximum-likelihood estimation, we meta-analyzed placebo-controlled drug effects for (1) DA D1-like receptor agonists and (2) antagonists, (3) D2-like agonists and (4) antagonists, and (5) DA transporter-modulating drugs.

RESULTS

Meta-analytic effects showed that DAT-modulating drugs decreased reward discounting. While D1-like and D2-like antagonists both increased discounting, agonist drugs for those receptors had no significant effect on discounting behavior. A number of these effects appear contingent on study design features like cost type, rat strain, and microinfusion location.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest a nuanced relationship between DA and discounting behavior and urge caution when drawing generalizations about the effects of pharmacologically manipulating dopamine on reward-based decision-making.

Modelling decision-making under uncertainty: A direct comparison study between human and mouse gambling data

Decision-making is a conserved evolutionary process enabling us to choose one option among several alternatives, and relies on reward and cognitive control systems. The Iowa Gambling Task allows the assessment of human decision-making under uncertainty by presenting four card decks with various cost-benefit probabilities. Participants seek to maximise their monetary gain by developing long-term optimal-choice strategies. Animal versions have been adapted with nutritional rewards, but interspecies data comparisons are scarce. Our study directly compares the non-pathological decision-making performance between humans and wild-type C57BL/6 mice. Human participants completed an electronic Iowa Gambling Task version, while mice a maze-based adaptation with four arms baited in a probabilistic way. Our data shows closely matching performance between both species with similar patterns of choice behaviours. However, mice showed a faster learning rate than humans. Moreover, both populations were clustered into good, intermediate and poor decision-making categories with similar proportions. Remarkably, mice characterised as good decision-makers behaved the same as humans of the same category, but slight differences among species are evident for the other two subpopulations. Overall, our direct comparative study confirms the good face validity of the rodent gambling task. Extended behavioural characterisation and pathological animal models should help strengthen its construct validity and disentangle the determinants in animals and humans decision-making.

Macaques are risk-averse in a freely moving foraging task

Rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta) appear to be robustly risk-seeking in computerized gambling tasks typically used for electrophysiology. This behavior distinguishes them from many other animals, which are risk-averse, albeit measured in more naturalistic contexts. We wondered whether macaques' risk preferences reflect their evolutionary history or derive from the less naturalistic elements of task design associated with the demands of physiological recording. We assessed macaques' risk attitudes in a task that is somewhat more naturalistic than many that have previously been used: subjects foraged at four feeding stations in a large enclosure. Patches (i.e., stations), provided either stochastically or non-stochastically depleting rewards. Subjects' patch residence times were longer at safe than at risky stations, indicating a preference for safe options. This preference was not attributable to a win-stay-lose-shift heuristic and reversed as the environmental richness increased. These findings highlight the lability of risk attitudes in macaques and support the hypothesis that the ecological validity of a task can influence the expression of risk preference.

Local field potentials in dorsal anterior cingulate sulcus reflect rewards but not travel time costs during foraging

To maximise long-term reward rates, foragers deciding when to leave a patch must compute a decision variable that reflects both the immediately available reward and the time costs associated with travelling to the next patch. Identifying the mechanisms that mediate this computation is central to understanding how brains implement foraging decisions. We previously showed that firing rates of dorsal anterior cingulate sulcus neurons incorporate both variables. This result does not provide information about whether integration of information reflected in dorsal anterior cingulate sulcus spiking activity arises locally or whether it is inherited from upstream structures. Here, we examined local field potentials gathered simultaneously with our earlier recordings. In the majority of recording sites, local field potential spectral bands - specifically theta, beta, and gamma frequency ranges - encoded immediately available rewards but not time costs. The disjunction between information contained in spiking and local field potentials can constrain models of foraging-related processing. In particular, given the proposed link between local field potentials and inputs to a brain area, it raises the possibility that local processing within dorsal anterior cingulate sulcus serves to more fully bind immediate reward and time costs into a single decision variable.

Let's call the whole thing off: evaluating gender and sex differences in executive function

The executive functions allow for purposeful, deliberate, and intentional interactions with the world-attention and focus, impulse control, decision making, and working memory. These measures have been correlated with academic outcomes and quality of life, and are impacted by deleterious environmental events throughout the life span, including gestational and early life insults. This review will address the topic of sex differences in executive function including a discussion of differences arising in response to developmental programming. Work on gender differences in human studies and sex differences in animal research will be reviewed. Overall, we find little support for significant gender or sex differences in executive function. An important variable that factors into the interpretation of potential sex differences include differing developmental trajectories. We conclude by discussing future directions for the field and a brief discussion of biological mechanisms.

Thalamic afferents to prefrontal cortices from ventral motor nuclei in decision-making

The focus of this literature review is on the three interacting brain areas that participate in decision‐making: basal ganglia, ventral motor thalamic nuclei, and medial prefrontal cortex, with an emphasis on the participation of the ventromedial and ventral anterior motor thalamic nuclei in prefrontal cortical function. Apart from a defining input from the mediodorsal thalamus, the prefrontal cortex receives inputs from ventral motor thalamic nuclei that combine to mediate typical prefrontal functions such as associative learning, action selection, and decision‐making. Motor, somatosensory and medial prefrontal cortices are mainly contacted in layer 1 by the ventral motor thalamic nuclei and in layer 3 by thalamocortical input from mediodorsal thalamus. We will review anatomical, electrophysiological, and behavioral evidence for the proposed participation of ventral motor thalamic nuclei and medial prefrontal cortex in rat and mouse motor decision‐making.

Art is not special: an assault on the last lines of defense against the naturalization of the human mind

The assumption that human cognition requires exceptional explanations holds strong in some domains of behavioral and brain sciences. Scientific aesthetics in general, and neuroaesthetics in particular, abound with claims for art-specific cognitive or neural processes. This assumption fosters a conceptual structure disconnected from other fields and biases the sort of processes to be studied. More generally, assuming that art is special is to cling to the idea that some aspect of our species' mental constitution makes us unique, special, and meaningful. This assumption continues to relegate scientific aesthetics to the periphery of science and hampers a naturalized view of the human mind.

On the Flexibility of Basic Risk Attitudes in Monkeys

Monkeys and other animals appear to share with humans two risk attitudes predicted by prospect theory: an inverse-S-shaped probability-weighting (PW) function and a steeper utility curve for losses than for gains. These findings suggest that such preferences are stable traits with common neural substrates. We hypothesized instead that animals tailor their preferences to subtle changes in task contexts, making risk attitudes flexible. Previous studies used a limited number of outcomes, trial types, and contexts. To gain a broader perspective, we examined two large datasets of male macaques' risky choices: one from a task with real (juice) gains and another from a token task with gains and losses. In contrast to previous findings, monkeys were risk seeking for both gains and losses (i.e., lacked a reflection effect) and showed steeper gain than loss curves (loss seeking). Utility curves for gains were substantially different in the two tasks. Monkeys showed nearly linear PWs in one task and S-shaped ones in the other; neither task produced a consistent inverse-S-shaped curve. To account for these observations, we developed and tested various computational models of the processes involved in the construction of reward value. We found that adaptive differential weighting of prospective gamble outcomes could partially account for the observed differences in the utility functions across the two experiments and thus provide a plausible mechanism underlying flexible risk attitudes. Together, our results support the idea that risky choices are constructed flexibly at the time of elicitation and place important constraints on neural models of economic choice.SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT We respond in reliable ways to risk, but are our risk preferences stable traits or ephemeral states? Using various computational models, we examined two large datasets of macaque risky choices in two different tasks. We observed several deviations from "classic" risk preferences seen in humans and monkeys: no reflection effect, loss seeking as opposed to loss aversion, and linear and S-shaped, as opposed to inverse-S-shaped, probability distortion. These results challenge the idea that our risk attitudes are evolved traits shared with the last common ancestor of macaques and humans, suggesting instead that behavioral flexibility is the hallmark of risky choice in primates. We show how this flexibility can emerge partly as a result of interactions between attentional and reward systems.

Understanding periviable birth: A microeconomic alternative to the dysregulation narrative

Periviable infants (i.e., those born in the 20th through 26th weeks of gestation) suffer much morbidity and approximately half die in the first year of life. Attempts to explain and predict these births disproportionately invoke a "dysregulation" narrative. Research inspired by this narrative has not led to efficacious interventions. The clinical community has, therefore, urged novel approaches to the problem. We aim to provoke debate by offering the theory, inferred from microeconomics, that risk tolerant women carry, without cognitive involvement, high risk fetuses farther into pregnancy than do other women. These extended high-risk pregnancies historically ended in stillbirth but modern obstetric practices now convert a fraction to periviable births. We argue that this theory deserves testing because it suggests inexpensive and noninvasive screening for pregnancies that might benefit from the costly and invasive interventions clinical research will likely devise.