Heart Failure: Diagnosis, Severity Estimation and Prediction of Adverse Events Through Machine Learning Techniques

Machine learning model and nomogram to predict the risk of heart failure hospitalization in peritoneal dialysis patients

INTRODUCTION

The study presented here aimed to establish a predictive model for heart failure (HF) and all-cause mortality in peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients with machine learning (ML) algorithm.

METHODS

We retrospectively included 1006 patients who initiated PD from 2010 to 2016. XGBoost, random forest (RF), and AdaBoost were used to train models for assessing risk for 1-year and 5-year HF hospitalization and mortality. The performance was validated using fivefold cross-validation. The optimal ML algorithm was used to construct the models to predictive the risk of the HF and all-cause mortality. The prediction performance of ML methods and Cox regression was compared.

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up of 49 months. Two hundred and ninety-eight patients developed HF required hospitalization; 199 patients died during the follow-up. The RF model (AUC = 0.853) was the best performing model for predicting HF, and the XGBoost model (AUC = 0.871) was the best model for predicting mortality. Baseline moderate or severe renal disease, systolic blood pressure (SBP), body mass index (BMI), age, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) score were strongly associated with HF hospitalization, whereas age, CCI score, creatinine, age, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), total cholesterol, baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) were the most significant predictors of mortality. For all the above endpoints, the ML models demonstrated better discrimination than Cox regression.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed and validated a novel method to predict the risk factors of HF and all-cause mortality that integrates readily available clinical, laboratory, and electrocardiographic variables to predict the risk of HF among PD patients.

Machine learning in heart failure diagnosis, prediction, and prognosis: review

Globally, cardiovascular diseases take the lives of over 17 million people each year, mostly through myocardial infarction, or MI, and heart failure (HF). This comprehensive literature review examines various aspects related to the diagnosis, prediction, and prognosis of HF in the context of machine learning (ML). The review covers an array of topics, including the diagnosis of HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) and the identification of high-risk patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). The prediction of mortality in different HF populations using different ML approaches is explored, encompassing patients in the ICU, and HFpEF patients using biomarkers and gene expression. The review also delves into the prediction of mortality and hospitalization rates in HF patients with mid-range ejection fraction (HFmrEF) using ML methods. The findings highlight the significance of a multidimensional approach that encompasses clinical evaluation, laboratory assessments, and comprehensive research to improve our understanding and management of HF. Promising predictive models incorporating biomarkers, gene expression, and consideration of epigenetics demonstrate potential in estimating mortality and identifying high-risk HFpEF patients. This literature review serves as a valuable resource for researchers, clinicians, and healthcare professionals seeking a comprehensive and updated understanding of the role of ML diagnosis, prediction, and prognosis of HF across different subtypes and patient populations.

Examining arterial pulsation to identify and risk-stratify heart failure subjects with deep neural network

Hemodynamic parameters derived from pulse wave analysis have been shown to predict long-term outcomes in patients with heart failure (HF). Here we aimed to develop a deep-learning based algorithm that incorporates pressure waveforms for the identification and risk stratification of patients with HF. The first study, with a case-control study design to address data imbalance issue, included 431 subjects with HF exhibiting typical symptoms and 1545 control participants with no history of HF (non-HF). Carotid pressure waveforms were obtained from all the participants using applanation tonometry. The HF score, representing the probability of HF, was derived from a one-dimensional deep neural network (DNN) model trained with characteristics of the normalized carotid pressure waveform. In the second study of HF patients, we constructed a Cox regression model with 83 candidate clinical variables along with the HF score to predict the risk of all-cause mortality along with rehospitalization. To identify subjects using the HF score, the sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, F1 score, and area under receiver operating characteristic curve were 0.867, 0.851, 0.874, 0.878, and 0.93, respectively, from the hold-out cross-validation of the DNN, which was better than other machine learning models, including logistic regression, support vector machine, and random forest. With a median follow-up of 5.8 years, the multivariable Cox model using the HF score and other clinical variables outperformed the other HF risk prediction models with concordance index of 0.71, in which only the HF score and five clinical variables were independent significant predictors (p < 0.05), including age, history of percutaneous coronary intervention, concentration of sodium in the emergency room, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, and hemoglobin. Our study demonstrated the diagnostic and prognostic utility of arterial waveforms in subjects with HF using a DNN model. Pulse wave contains valuable information that can benefit the clinical care of patients with HF.

Artificial Intelligence and Its Role in Diagnosing Heart Failure: A Narrative Review

Heart failure (HF) is prevalent globally. It is a dynamic disease with varying definitions and classifications due to multiple pathophysiologies and etiologies. The diagnosis, clinical staging, and treatment of HF become complex and subjective, impacting patient prognosis and mortality. Technological advancements, like artificial intelligence (AI), have been significant roleplays in medicine and are increasingly used in cardiovascular medicine to transform drug discovery, clinical care, risk prediction, diagnosis, and treatment. Medical and surgical interventions specific to HF patients rely significantly on early identification of HF. Hospitalization and treatment costs for HF are high, with readmissions increasing the burden. AI can help improve diagnostic accuracy by recognizing patterns and using them in multiple areas of HF management. AI has shown promise in offering early detection and precise diagnoses with the help of ECG analysis, advanced cardiac imaging, leveraging biomarkers, and cardiopulmonary stress testing. However, its challenges include data access, model interpretability, ethical concerns, and generalizability across diverse populations. Despite these ongoing efforts to refine AI models, it suggests a promising future for HF diagnosis. After applying exclusion and inclusion criteria, we searched for data available on PubMed, Google Scholar, and the Cochrane Library and found 150 relevant papers. This review focuses on AI's significant contribution to HF diagnosis in recent years, drastically altering HF treatment and outcomes.

Analysis of hematological indicators via explainable artificial intelligence in the diagnosis of acute heart failure: a retrospective study

Introduction

Acute heart failure (AHF) is a serious medical problem that necessitates hospitalization and often results in death. Patients hospitalized in the emergency department (ED) should therefore receive an immediate diagnosis and treatment. Unfortunately, there is not yet a fast and accurate laboratory test for identifying AHF. The purpose of this research is to apply the principles of explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) to the analysis of hematological indicators for the diagnosis of AHF.

Methods

In this retrospective analysis, 425 patients with AHF and 430 healthy individuals served as assessments. Patients' demographic and hematological information was analyzed to diagnose AHF. Important risk variables for AHF diagnosis were identified using the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) feature selection. To test the efficacy of the suggested prediction model, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), a 10-fold cross-validation procedure was implemented. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), F1 score, Brier score, Positive Predictive Value (PPV), and Negative Predictive Value (NPV) were all computed to evaluate the model's efficacy. Permutation-based analysis and SHAP were used to assess the importance and influence of the model's incorporated risk factors.

Results

White blood cell (WBC), monocytes, neutrophils, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), red cell distribution width-standard deviation (RDW-SD), RDW-coefficient of variation (RDW-CV), and platelet distribution width (PDW) values were significantly higher than the healthy group (p < 0.05). On the other hand, erythrocyte, hemoglobin, basophil, lymphocyte, mean platelet volume (MPV), platelet, hematocrit, mean erythrocyte hemoglobin (MCH), and procalcitonin (PCT) values were found to be significantly lower in AHF patients compared to healthy controls (p < 0.05). When XGBoost was used in conjunction with LASSO to diagnose AHF, the resulting model had an AUC of 87.9%, an F1 score of 87.4%, a Brier score of 0.036, and an F1 score of 87.4%. PDW, age, RDW-SD, and PLT were identified as the most crucial risk factors in differentiating AHF.

Conclusion

The results of this study showed that XAI combined with ML could successfully diagnose AHF. SHAP descriptions show that advanced age, low platelet count, high RDW-SD, and PDW are the primary hematological parameters for the diagnosis of AHF.

Time-domain heart rate variability features for automatic congestive heart failure prediction

AIMS

Heart failure is a serious condition that often goes undiagnosed in primary care due to the lack of reliable diagnostic tools and the similarity of its symptoms with other diseases. Non-invasive monitoring of heart rate variability (HRV), which reflects the activity of the autonomic nervous system, could offer a novel and accurate way to detect and manage heart failure patients. This study aimed to assess the feasibility of using machine learning techniques on HRV data as a non-invasive biomarker to classify healthy adults and those with heart failure.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We used digitized electrocardiogram recordings from 54 adults with normal sinus rhythm and 44 adults categorized into New York Heart Association classes 1, 2, and 3, suffering from congestive heart failure. All recordings were sourced from the PhysioNet database. Following data pre-processing, we performed time-domain HRV analysis on all individual recordings, including root mean square of the successive difference in adjacent RR interval (RRi) (RMSSD), the standard deviation of RRi (SDNN, the NN stands for natural or sinus intervals), the standard deviation of the successive differences between successive RRi (SDSD), the number or percentage of RRi longer than 50 ms (NN50 and pNN50), and the average value of RRi [mean RR interval (mRRi)]. In our experimental classification performance evaluation, on the computed HRV parameters, we optimized hyperparameters and performed five-fold cross-validation using four machine learning classification algorithms: support vector machine, k-nearest neighbour (KNN), naïve Bayes, and decision tree (DT). We evaluated the prediction accuracy of these models using performance criteria, namely, precision, recall, specificity, F1 score, and overall accuracy. For added insight, we also presented receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plots and area under the ROC curve (AUC) values. The overall best performance accuracy of 77% was achieved when KNN and DT were trained on computed HRV parameters with a 5 min time window. KNN obtained an AUC of 0.77, while DT attained 0.78. Additionally, in the classification of severe congestive heart failure, KNN and DT had the best accuracy of 91%, with KNN achieving an AUC of 0.88 and DT obtaining 0.92.

CONCLUSIONS

The results show that HRV can accurately predict severe congestive heart failure. The findings of this study could inform the use of machine learning approaches on non-invasive HRV, to screen congestive heart failure individuals in primary care.

Machine learning-based prediction of composite risk of cardiovascular events in patients with stable angina pectoris combined with coronary heart disease: development and validation of a clinical prediction model for Chinese patients

Objective: To develop a risk score model for the occurrence of composite cardiovascular events (CVE) in patients with stable angina pectoris (SA) combined with coronary heart disease (CHD) by comparing the modeling effects of various machine learning (ML) algorithms. Methods: In this prospective study, 690 patients with SA combined with CHD attending the Department of Integrative Cardiology, China-Japan Friendship Hospital, from October 2020 to October 2021 were included. The data set was randomly divided into a training group and a testing group in a 7:3 ratio in the per-protocol set (PPS). Model variables were screened using the least absolute shrinkage selection operator (LASSO) regression, univariate analysis, and multifactor logistic regression. Then, nine ML algorithms are integrated to build the model and compare the model effects. Individualized risk assessment was performed using the SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) and nomograms, respectively. The model discrimination was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), the calibration ability of the model was evaluated by calibration plot, and the clinical applicability of the model was evaluated by decision curve analysis (DCA). This study was approved by the Clinical Research Ethics Committee of China-Japan Friendship Hospital (2020-114-K73). Results: 690 patients were eligible to finish the complete follow-up in the PPS. After LASSO screening and multifactorial logistic regression analysis, physical activity level, taking antiplatelets, Traditional Chinese medicine treatment, Gensini score, Seattle Angina Questionnaire (SAQ)-exercise capacity score, and SAQ-anginal stability score were found to be predictors of the occurrence of CVE. The above predictors are modeled, and a comprehensive comparison of the modeling effectiveness of multiple ML algorithms is performed. The results show that the Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) model is the best model, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.95 (95% CI = 0.91-1.00) for the test set, Accuracy: 0.90, Sensitivity: 0.87, and Specificity: 0.96. Interpretation of the model using SHAP highlighted the Gensini score as the most important predictor. Based on the multifactorial logistic regression modeling, a nomogram, and online calculators have been developed for clinical applications. Conclusion: We developed the LightGBM optimization model and the multifactor logistic regression model, respectively. The model is interpreted using SHAP and nomogram. This provides an option for early prediction of CVE in patients with SA combined with CHD.

Development and validation of a novel combinatorial nomogram model to predict in-hospital deaths in heart failure patients

BACKGROUND

The purpose of this study was to develop a Nomogram model to identify the risk of all-cause mortality during hospitalization in patients with heart failure (HF).

METHODS

HF patients who had been registered in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC) III and IV databases were included. The primary outcome was the occurrence of all-cause mortality during hospitalization. Two Logistic Regression models (LR1 and LR2) were developed to predict in-hospital death for HF patients from the MIMIC-IV database. The MIMIC-III database were used for model validation. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to compare the discrimination of each model. Calibration curve was used to assess the fit of each developed models. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to estimate the net benefit of the predictive model.

RESULTS

A total of 16,908 HF patients were finally enrolled through screening, of whom 2,283 (13.5%) presented with in-hospital death. Totally, 48 variables were included and analyzed in the univariate and multifactorial regression analysis. The AUCs for the LR1 and LR2 models in the test cohort were 0.751 (95% CI: 0.735∼0.767) and 0.766 (95% CI: 0.751-0.781), respectively. Both LR models performed well in the calibration curve and DCA process. Nomogram and online risk assessment system were used as visualization of predictive models.

CONCLUSION

A new risk prediction tool and an online risk assessment system were developed to predict mortality in HF patients, which performed well and might be used to guide clinical practice.

Classification of patients with chronic disease by activation level using machine learning methods

Patient Activation Measure (PAM) measures the activation level of patients with chronic conditions and correlates well with patient adherence behavior, health outcomes, and healthcare costs. PAM is increasingly used in practice to identify patients needing more support from the care team. We define PAM levels 1 and 2 as low PAM and investigate the performance of eight machine learning methods (Logistic Regression, Lasso Regression, Ridge Regression, Random Forest, Gradient Boosted Trees, Support Vector Machines, Decision Trees, Neural Networks) to classify patients. Primary data collected from adult patients (n=431) with Diabetes Mellitus (DM) or Hypertension (HT) attending Family Health Centers in Istanbul, Turkey, is used to test the methods. [Formula: see text] of patients in the dataset have a low PAM level. Classification performance with several feature sets was analyzed to understand the relative importance of different types of information and provide insights. The most important features are found as whether the patient performs self-monitoring, smoking and exercise habits, education, and socio-economic status. The best performance was achieved with the Logistic Regression algorithm, with Area Under the Curve (AUC)=0.72 with the best performing feature set. Alternative feature sets with similar prediction performance are also presented. The prediction performance was inferior with an automated feature selection method, supporting the importance of using domain knowledge in machine learning.

Scoping Meta-Review of Methods Used to Assess Artificial Intelligence-Based Medical Devices for Heart Failure

Artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) are playing increasingly important roles, permeating the field of medical devices (MDs). This rapid progress has not yet been matched by the Health Technology Assessment (HTA) process, which still needs to define a common methodology for assessing AI/ML-based MDs. To collect existing evidence from the literature about the methods used to assess AI-based MDs, with a specific focus on those used for the management of heart failure (HF), the International Federation of Medical and Biological Engineering (IFMBE) conducted a scoping meta-review. This manuscript presents the results of this search, which covered the period from January 1974 to October 2022. After careful independent screening, 21 reviews, mainly conducted in North America and Europe, were retained and included. Among the findings were that deep learning is the most commonly utilised method and that electronic health records and registries are among the most prevalent sources of data for AI/ML algorithms. Out of the 21 included reviews, 19 focused on risk prediction and/or the early diagnosis of HF. Furthermore, 10 reviews provided evidence of the impact on the incidence/progression of HF, and 13 on the length of stay. From an HTA perspective, the main areas requiring improvement are the quality assessment of studies on AI/ML (included in 11 out of 21 reviews) and their data sources, as well as the definition of the criteria used to assess the selection of the most appropriate AI/ML algorithm.

Personalized event prediction for Electronic Health Records

Clinical event sequences consist of hundreds of clinical events that represent records of patient care in time. Developing accurate predictive models of such sequences is of a great importance for supporting a variety of models for interpreting/classifying the current patient condition, or predicting adverse clinical events and outcomes, all aimed to improve patient care. One important challenge of learning predictive models of clinical sequences is their patient-specific variability. Based on underlying clinical conditions, each patient's sequence may consist of different sets of clinical events (observations, lab results, medications, procedures). Hence, simple population-wide models learned from event sequences for many different patients may not accurately predict patient-specific dynamics of event sequences and their differences. To address the problem, we propose and investigate multiple new event sequence prediction models and methods that let us better adjust the prediction for individual patients and their specific conditions. The methods developed in this work pursue refinement of population-wide models to subpopulations, self-adaptation, and a meta-level model switching that is able to adaptively select the model with the best chance to support the immediate prediction. We analyze and test the performance of these models on clinical event sequences of patients in MIMIC-III database.

Comprehensive analysis of clinical data for COVID-19 outcome estimation with machine learning models

COVID-19 is a global threat for the healthcare systems due to the rapid spread of the pathogen that causes it. In such situation, the clinicians must take important decisions, in an environment where medical resources can be insufficient. In this task, the computer-aided diagnosis systems can be very useful not only in the task of supporting the clinical decisions but also to perform relevant analyses, allowing them to understand better the disease and the factors that can identify the high risk patients. For those purposes, in this work, we use several machine learning algorithms to estimate the outcome of COVID-19 patients given their clinical information. Particularly, we perform 2 different studies: the first one estimates whether the patient is at low or at high risk of death whereas the second estimates if the patient needs hospitalization or not. The results of the analyses of this work show the most relevant features for each studied scenario, as well as the classification performance of the considered machine learning models. In particular, the XGBoost algorithm is able to estimate the need for hospitalization of a patient with an AUC-ROC of 0 . 8415 ± 0 . 0217 while it can also estimate the risk of death with an AUC-ROC of 0 . 7992 ± 0 . 0104 . Results have demonstrated the great potential of the proposal to determine those patients that need a greater amount of medical resources for being at a higher risk. This provides the healthcare services with a tool to better manage their resources.

A non-linear SVR-based cascade model for improving prediction accuracy of biomedical data analysis

Biomedical data analysis is essential in current diagnosis, treatment, and patient condition monitoring. The large volumes of data that characterize this area require simple but accurate and fast methods of intellectual analysis to improve the level of medical services. Existing machine learning (ML) methods require many resources (time, memory, energy) when processing large datasets. Or they demonstrate a level of accuracy that is insufficient for solving a specific application task. In this paper, we developed a new ensemble model of increased accuracy for solving approximation problems of large biomedical data sets. The model is based on cascading of the ML methods and response surface linearization principles. In addition, we used Ito decomposition as a means of nonlinearly expanding the inputs at each level of the model. As weak learners, Support Vector Regression (SVR) with linear kernel was used due to many significant advantages demonstrated by this method among the existing ones. The training and application procedures of the developed SVR-based cascade model are described, and a flow chart of its implementation is presented. The modeling was carried out on a real-world tabular set of biomedical data of a large volume. The task of predicting the heart rate of individuals was solved, which provides the possibility of determining the level of human stress, and is an essential indicator in various applied fields. The optimal parameters of the SVR-based cascade model operating were selected experimentally. The authors shown that the developed model provides more than 20 times higher accuracy (according to Mean Squared Error (MSE)), as well as a significant reduction in the duration of the training procedure compared to the existing method, which provided the highest accuracy of work among those considered.

Risk prediction of heart failure in patients with ischemic heart disease using network analytics and stacking ensemble learning

BACKGROUND

Heart failure (HF) is a major complication following ischemic heart disease (IHD) and it adversely affects the outcome. Early prediction of HF risk in patients with IHD is beneficial for timely intervention and for reducing disease burden.

METHODS

Two cohorts, cases for patients first diagnosed with IHD and then with HF (N = 11,862) and control IHD patients without HF (N = 25,652), were established from the hospital discharge records in Sichuan, China during 2015-2019. Directed personal disease network (PDN) was constructed for each patient, and then these PDNs were merged to generate the baseline disease network (BDN) for the two cohorts, respectively, which identifies the health trajectories of patients and the complex progression patterns. The differences between the BDNs of the two cohort was represented as disease-specific network (DSN). Three novel network features were exacted from PDN and DSN to represent the similarity of disease patterns and specificity trends from IHD to HF. A stacking-based ensemble model DXLR was proposed to predict HF risk in IHD patients using the novel network features and basic demographic features (i.e., age and sex). The Shapley Addictive exPlanations method was applied to analyze the feature importance of the DXLR model.

RESULTS

Compared with the six traditional machine learning models, our DXLR model exhibited the highest AUC (0.934 ± 0.004), accuracy (0.857 ± 0.007), precision (0.723 ± 0.014), recall (0.892 ± 0.012) and F₁ score (0.798 ± 0.010). The feature importance showed that the novel network features ranked as the top three features, playing a notable role in predicting HF risk of IHD patient. The feature comparison experiment also indicated that our novel network features were superior to those proposed by the state-of-the-art study in improving the performance of the prediction model, with an increase in AUC by 19.9%, in accuracy by 18.7%, in precision by 30.7%, in recall by 37.4%, and in F₁ score by 33.7%.

CONCLUSIONS

Our proposed approach that combines network analytics and ensemble learning effectively predicts HF risk in patients with IHD. This highlights the potential value of network-based machine learning in disease risk prediction field using administrative data.

Trends in Passive IoT Biomarker Monitoring and Machine Learning for Cardiovascular Disease Management in the U.S. Elderly Population

It is predicted that the growth in the U.S. elderly population alongside continued growth in chronic disease prevalence will further strain an already overburdened healthcare system and could compromise the delivery of equitable care. Current trends in technology are demonstrating successful application of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) to biomarkers of cardiovascular disease (CVD) using longitudinal data collected passively from internet-of-things (IoT) platforms deployed among the elderly population. These systems are growing in sophistication and deployed across evermore use-cases, presenting new opportunities and challenges for innovators and caregivers alike. IoT sensor development that incorporates greater levels of passivity will increase the likelihood of continued growth in device adoption among the geriatric population for longitudinal health data collection which will benefit a variety of CVD applications. This growth in IoT sensor development and longitudinal data acquisition is paralleled by the growth in ML approaches that continue to provide promising avenues for better geriatric care through higher personalization, more real-time feedback, and prognostic insights that may help prevent downstream complications and relieve strain on the healthcare system overall. However, findings that identify differences in longitudinal biomarker interpretations between elderly populations and relatively younger populations highlights the necessity that ML approaches that use data from newly developed passive IoT systems should collect more data on this target population and more clinical trials will help elucidate the extent of benefits and risks from these data driven approaches to remote care.

ECG Heartbeat Classification Using Machine Learning and Metaheuristic Optimization for Smart Healthcare Systems

Early diagnosis and classification of arrhythmia from an electrocardiogram (ECG) plays a significant role in smart healthcare systems for the health monitoring of individuals with cardiovascular diseases. Unfortunately, the nonlinearity and low amplitude of ECG recordings make the classification process difficult. Thus, the performance of most traditional machine learning (ML) classifiers is questionable, as the interrelationship between the learning parameters is not well modeled, especially for data features with high dimensions. To address the limitations of ML classifiers, this paper introduces an automatic arrhythmia classification approach based on the integration of a recent metaheuristic optimization (MHO) algorithm and ML classifiers. The role of the MHO is to optimize the search parameters of the classifiers. The approach consists of three steps: the preprocessing of the ECG signal, the extraction of the features, and the classification. The learning parameters of four supervised ML classifiers were utilized for the classification task; support vector machine (SVM), k-nearest neighbors (kNNs), gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT), and random forest (RF) were optimized using the MHO algorithm. To validate the advantage of the proposed approach, several experiments were conducted on three common databases, including the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT-BIH), the European Society of Cardiology ST-T (EDB), and the St. Petersburg Institute of Cardiological Techniques 12-lead Arrhythmia (INCART). The obtained results showed that the performance of all the tested classifiers were significantly improved after integrating the MHO algorithm, with the average ECG arrhythmia classification accuracy reaching 99.92% and a sensitivity of 99.81%, outperforming the state-of the-art methods.

A deep learning system for heart failure mortality prediction

Heart failure (HF) is the final stage of the various heart diseases developing. The mortality rates of prognosis HF patients are highly variable, ranging from 5% to 75%. Evaluating the all-cause mortality of HF patients is an important means to avoid death and positively affect the health of patients. But in fact, machine learning models are difficult to gain good results on missing values, high dimensions, and imbalances HF data. Therefore, a deep learning system is proposed. In this system, we propose an indicator vector to indicate whether the value is true or be padded, which fast solves the missing values and helps expand data dimensions. Then, we use a convolutional neural network with different kernel sizes to obtain the features information. And a multi-head self-attention mechanism is applied to gain whole channel information, which is essential for the system to improve performance. Besides, the focal loss function is introduced to deal with the imbalanced problem better. The experimental data of the system are from the public database MIMIC-III, containing valid data for 10311 patients. The proposed system effectively and fast predicts four death types: death within 30 days, death within 180 days, death within 365 days and death after 365 days. Our study uses Deep SHAP to interpret the deep learning model and obtains the top 15 characteristics. These characteristics further confirm the effectiveness and rationality of the system and help provide a better medical service.

Economic evaluation of ferric carboxymaltose compared with placebo in iron-deficient patients with heart failure: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

It has been shown that ferric carboxymaltose (FCM) improves symptoms and quality of life in iron-deficient patients with heart failure (HF).

AIM

We aimed to systematically review studies conducted on the cost-effectiveness of FCM compared to placebo in iron-deficient patients with HF.

METHOD

We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Scopus, and Web of Science to find the relevant studies. After removing duplicates, two authors independently evaluated the titles, abstracts, and full texts. We included studies that investigated the full economic evaluations of FCM in HF patients with iron deficiency (cost-effectiveness analysis, cost-utility analysis, and cost-benefit analysis) and used the CHEERS tool to evaluate the quality of the studies.

RESULTS

Seven studies were included which evaluated the economic analysis of treatments with FCM in iron-deficient patients with HF. The CHEERS scores for most of the studies (n = 6) were 0.77 or higher (very good quality). The lowest incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per quality-adjusted life years (QALY) of FCM ($1801.96) was from Italy, and the highest ICER per QALY of FCM ($25,981.28) South Korea. Results of the studies showed that FCM, compared to placebo, was cost-effective in iron-deficient patients with HF.

CONCLUSION

FCM is a cost-effective treatment for iron-deficient patients with HF. Considering the fact that all the included studies in the present systematic review took place in high-income countries, we recommend further studies investigating the cost-effectiveness of FCM in low- and middle-income countries.

Identification of decompensation episodes in chronic heart failure patients based solely on heart sounds

Decompensation episodes in chronic heart failure patients frequently result in unplanned outpatient or emergency room visits or even hospitalizations. Early detection of these episodes in their pre-symptomatic phase would likely enable the clinicians to manage this patient cohort with the appropriate modification of medical therapy which would in turn prevent the development of more severe heart failure decompensation thus avoiding the need for heart failure-related hospitalizations. Currently, heart failure worsening is recognized by the clinicians through characteristic changes of heart failure-related symptoms and signs, including the changes in heart sounds. The latter has proven to be largely unreliable as its interpretation is highly subjective and dependent on the clinicians’ skills and preferences. Previous studies have indicated that the algorithms of artificial intelligence are promising in distinguishing the heart sounds of heart failure patients from those of healthy individuals. In this manuscript, we focus on the analysis of heart sounds of chronic heart failure patients in their decompensated and recompensated phase. The data was recorded on 37 patients using two types of electronic stethoscopes. Using a combination of machine learning approaches, we obtained up to 72% classification accuracy between the two phases, which is better than the accuracy of the interpretation by cardiologists, which reached 50%. Our results demonstrate that machine learning algorithms are promising in improving early detection of heart failure decompensation episodes.

Artificial intelligence and digital health for volume maintenance in hemodialysis patients

Chronic fluid overload is associated with morbidity and mortality in hemodialysis patients. Optimizing the diagnosis and treatment of fluid overload remains a priority for the nephrology community. Although current methods of assessing fluid status, such as bioimpedance and lung ultrasound, have prognostic and diagnostic value, no single system or technique can be used to maintain euvolemia. The difficulty in maintaining and assessing fluid status led to a publication by the Kidney Health Initiative in 2019 aimed at fostering innovation in fluid management therapies. This review article focuses on the current limitations in our assessment of extracellular volume, and the novel technology and methods that can create a new paradigm for fluid management. The cardiology community has published research on multiparametric wearable devices that can create individualized predictions for heart failure events. In the future, similar wearable technology may be capable of tracking fluid changes during the interdialytic period and enabling behavioral change. Machine learning methods have shown promise in the prediction of volume-related adverse events. Similar methods can be leveraged to create accurate, automated predictions of dry weight that can potentially be used to guide ultrafiltration targets and interdialytic weight gain goals.

Identification of Cardiac Patients Based on the Medical Conditions Using Machine Learning Models

Chronic diseases are the most severe health concern today, and heart disease is one of them. Coronary artery disease (CAD) affects blood flow to the heart, and it is the most common type of heart disease which causes a heart attack. High blood pressure, high cholesterol, and smoking significantly increase the risk of heart disease. To estimate the risk of heart disease is a complex process because it depends on various input parameters. The linear and analytical models failed due to their assumptions and limited dataset. The existing studies have used medical data for classification purposes, which help to identify the exact condition of the patient, but no one has developed any correlation equation which can be directly used to identify the patients. In this paper, mathematical models have been developed using the medical database of patients suffering from heart disease. Curve fitting and artificial neural network (ANN) have been applied to model the condition of patients to find out whether the patient is suffering from heart disease or not. The developed curve fitting model can identify the cardiac patient with accuracy, having a coefficient of determination (R²-value) of 0.6337 and mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.293 at a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.3688, and the ANN-based model can identify the cardiac patient with accuracy having a coefficient of determination (R²-value) of 0.8491 and MAE of 0.20 at RMSE of 0.267, it has been found that ANN provides superior mathematical modeling than curve fitting method in identifying the heart disease patients. Medical professionals can utilize this model to identify heart patients without any angiography or computed tomography angiography test.

Leveraging Natural Learning Processing to Uncover Themes in Clinical Notes of Patients Admitted for Heart Failure

Heart failure occurs when the heart is not able to pump blood and oxygen to support other organs in the body as it should. Treatments include medications and sometimes hospitalization. Patients with heart failure can have both cardiovascular as well as non-cardiovascular comorbidities. Clinical notes of patients with heart failure can be analyzed to gain insight into the topics discussed in these notes and the major comorbidities in these patients. In this regard, we apply machine learning techniques, such as topic modeling, to identify the major themes found in the clinical notes specific to the procedures performed on 1,200 patients admitted for heart failure at the University of Illinois Hospital and Health Sciences System (UI Health). Topic modeling revealed five hidden themes in these clinical notes, including one related to heart disease comorbidities.

Integrated Bioinformatics Identifies FREM1 as a Diagnostic Gene Signature for Heart Failure

Objective

This study is aimed at integrating bioinformatics and machine learning to determine novel diagnostic gene signals in the progression of heart failure disease.

Methods

The heart failure microarray datasets and RNA-seq datasets have been downloaded from the public database. Differentially expressed genes (DE genes) are screened out, and then, we analyze their biological functions and pathways. Integrating three machine learning methods, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) algorithm, random forest (RF) algorithm, and support vector machine recursive feature elimination (SVM-RFE) are used to determine candidate diagnostic gene signals. Then, external independent RNA-seq datasets evaluate the diagnostic value of gene signals. Finally, the convolution tool CIBERSORT estimated the composition pattern of immune cell subtypes in heart failure and carried out a correlation analysis combined with gene signals.

Results

Under the set threshold, we obtained 47 DE genes with the most significant differences. Enrichment analysis shows that most of them are related to hypertrophy, matrix structural constituent, protein binding, inflammatory immune pathway, cardiovascular disease, and inflammatory disease. Three machine learning methods assisted in determining the potential characteristic signals Fras1-related extracellular matrix 1 (FREM1) and meiosis-specific nuclear structural 1 (MNS1). Validation of external datasets confirms that FREM1 is a diagnostic gene signal for heart failure. Immune cell subtypes of tissue specimens found T cell CD8, mast cell resting, T cell CD4 memory resting, T cell regulation (Tregs), monocytes, macrophages M2, T cell CD4 naive, macrophages M0, and neutrophils are associated with HF.

Conclusion

The gene signal FREM1 may be a potential molecular target in the development of HF and is related to the difference in immune infiltration of HF tissue.

Heart disease diagnosis using optimized features of hybridized ALCSOGA algorithm and LSTM classifier

Cardiac disease is the predominant cause of global death mainly due to its hidden symptoms and late diagnosis. Hence, early detection is important to improve quality of life. Though traditional researches attempted to predict heart disease, most of them lacked with respect to accuracy. To solve this, the present study proposes a hybridized Ant Lion Crow Search Optimization Genetic Algorithm (ALCSOGA) to perform effective feature selection. This hybrid optimization encompasses Ant Lion, Crow Search and Genetic Algorithm. Ant lion algorithm determines the elite position. While, the Crow Search Algorithm utilizes the phenomenon of position and memory of each crow for evaluating the objective function. Both these algorithms are fed into Genetic Algorithm to improve the performance of feature selection process. Then, Stochastic Learning rate optimized Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) is proposed to classify the extracted optimized features. Finally, comparative analysis is performed in terms of accuracy, recall, F1-score, and precision. Moreover, statistical analysis is performed with respect to Sum of Squares (SS), degree of freedom (df), F Critical (F crit), F Statistics (F), p, and Mean Square (MS) value. Analytical results revealed the efficiency of proposed system over conventional methods and thereby confirming its efficiency for predicting heart disease.

Survival prediction among heart patients using machine learning techniques

Cardiovascular diseases are regarded as the most common reason for worldwide deaths. As per World Health Organization, nearly 17.9 million people die of heart-related diseases each year. The high shares of cardiovascular-related diseases in total worldwide deaths motivated researchers to focus on ways to reduce the numbers. In this regard, several works focused on the development of machine learning techniques/algorithms for early detection, diagnosis, and subsequent treatment of cardiovascular-related diseases. These works focused on a variety of issues such as finding important features to effectively predict the occurrence of heart-related diseases to calculate the survival probability. This research contributes to the body of literature by selecting a standard well defined, and well-curated dataset as well as a set of standard benchmark algorithms to independently verify their performance based on a set of different performance evaluation metrics. From our experimental evaluation, it was observed that decision tree is the best performing algorithm in comparison to logistic regression, support vector machines, and artificial neural networks. Decision trees achieved 14% better accuracy than the average performance of the remaining techniques. In contrast to other studies, this research observed that artificial neural networks are not as competitive as the decision tree or support vector machine.

A hybrid method for heart disease diagnosis utilizing feature selection based ensemble classifier model generation

Heart disease is one of the most complicated diseases, and it affects a large number of individuals throughout the world. In healthcare, particularly cardiology, early and accurate detection of cardiac disease is critical. The Heart Disease Data Set-UCI repository collects data on heart disease. The search space and complexity of the classification models are increased by this raw dataset, which contains redundant and inconsistent data. We need to eliminate the redundant and unnecessary elements from the data to improve classification accuracy. As a consequence, feature selection approaches might be useful for reducing the cost of diagnosis by identifying the most important qualities. This research developed an ensemble classification model based on a feature selection approach in which selected features play a role in classification. Accordingly, a classification approach was introduced using ensemble learning with a genetic algorithm, feature selection, and biomedical test values to diagnose heart disease. Based on the results, it is deduced that the benefits of using the feature selection method vary depending on the utilized machine learning technique. However, the best-proposed model based on the combination of genetic algorithm and the ensemble learning model has achieved an accuracy of 97.57% on the considered datasets. The suggested diagnosis system achieved better accuracy than previously proposed methods and can easily be implemented in healthcare to identify heart disease.

What can machines learn about heart failure? A systematic literature review

This paper presents a systematic literature review with respect to application of data science and machine learning (ML) to heart failure (HF) datasets with the intention of generating both a synthesis of relevant findings and a critical evaluation of approaches, applicability and accuracy in order to inform future work within this field. This paper has a particular intention to consider ways in which the low uptake of ML techniques within clinical practice could be resolved. Literature searches were performed on Scopus (2014-2021), ProQuest and Ovid MEDLINE databases (2014-2021). Search terms included ‘heart failure’ or ‘cardiomyopathy’ and ‘machine learning’, ‘data analytics’, ‘data mining’ or ‘data science’. 81 out of 1688 articles were included in the review. The majority of studies were retrospective cohort studies. The median size of the patient cohort across all studies was 1944 (min 46, max 93260). The largest patient samples were used in readmission prediction models with the median sample size of 5676 (min. 380, max. 93260). Machine learning methods focused on common HF problems: detection of HF from available dataset, prediction of hospital readmission following index hospitalization, mortality prediction, classification and clustering of HF cohorts into subgroups with distinctive features and response to HF treatment. The most common ML methods used were logistic regression, decision trees, random forest and support vector machines. Information on validation of models was scarce. Based on the authors’ affiliations, there was a median 3:1 ratio between IT specialists and clinicians. Over half of studies were co-authored by a collaboration of medical and IT specialists. Approximately 25% of papers were authored solely by IT specialists who did not seek clinical input in data interpretation. The application of ML to datasets, in particular clustering methods, enabled the development of classification models assisting in testing the outcomes of patients with HF. There is, however, a tendency to over-claim the potential usefulness of ML models for clinical practice. The next body of work that is required for this research discipline is the design of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) with the use of ML in an intervention arm in order to prospectively validate these algorithms for real-world clinical utility.

Predicting Hospital Readmission in Heart Failure Patients in Iran: A Comparison of Various Machine Learning Methods

Objectives

Heart failure (HF) is a common disease with a high hospital readmission rate. This study considered class imbalance and missing data, which are two common issues in medical data. The current study’s main goal was to compare the performance of six machine learning (ML) methods for predicting hospital readmission in HF patients.

Methods

In this retrospective cohort study, information of 1,856 HF patients was analyzed. These patients were hospitalized in Farshchian Heart Center in Hamadan Province in Western Iran, from October 2015 to July 2019. The support vector machine (SVM), least-square SVM (LS-SVM), bagging, random forest (RF), AdaBoost, and naïve Bayes (NB) methods were used to predict hospital readmission. These methods’ performance was evaluated using sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy. Two imputation methods were also used to deal with missing data.

Results

Of the 1,856 HF patients, 29.9% had at least one hospital readmission. Among the ML methods, LS-SVM performed the worst, with accuracy in the range of 0.57–0.60, while RF performed the best, with the highest accuracy (range, 0.90–0.91). Other ML methods showed relatively good performance, with accuracy exceeding 0.84 in the test datasets. Furthermore, the performance of the SVM and LS-SVM methods in terms of accuracy was higher with the multiple imputation method than with the median imputation method.

Conclusions

This study showed that RF performed better, in terms of accuracy, than other methods for predicting hospital readmission in HF patients.

A cost-effective chart review sampling design to account for phenotyping error in electronic health records (EHR) data

OBJECTIVES

Electronic health records (EHR) are commonly used for the identification of novel risk factors for disease, often referred to as an association study. A major challenge to EHR-based association studies is phenotyping error in EHR-derived outcomes. A manual chart review of phenotypes is necessary for unbiased evaluation of risk factor associations. However, this process is time-consuming and expensive. The objective of this paper is to develop an outcome-dependent sampling approach for designing manual chart review, where EHR-derived phenotypes can be used to guide the selection of charts to be reviewed in order to maximize statistical efficiency in the subsequent estimation of risk factor associations.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

After applying outcome-dependent sampling, an augmented estimator can be constructed by optimally combining the chart-reviewed phenotypes from the selected patients with the error-prone EHR-derived phenotype. We conducted simulation studies to evaluate the proposed method and applied our method to data on colon cancer recurrence in a cohort of patients treated for a primary colon cancer in the Kaiser Permanente Washington (KPW) healthcare system.

RESULTS

Simulations verify the coverage probability of the proposed method and show that, when disease prevalence is less than 30%, the proposed method has smaller variance than an existing method where the validation set for chart review is uniformly sampled. In addition, from design perspective, the proposed method is able to achieve the same statistical power with 50% fewer charts to be validated than the uniform sampling method, thus, leading to a substantial efficiency gain in chart review. These findings were also confirmed by the application of the competing methods to the KPW colon cancer data.

DISCUSSION

Our simulation studies and analysis of data from KPW demonstrate that, compared to an existing uniform sampling method, the proposed outcome-dependent method can lead to a more efficient chart review sampling design and unbiased association estimates with higher statistical efficiency.

CONCLUSION

The proposed method not only optimally combines phenotypes from chart review with EHR-derived phenotypes but also suggests an efficient design for conducting chart review, with the goal of improving the efficiency of estimated risk factor associations using EHR data.

Extracting Features from Poincaré Plots to Distinguish Congestive Heart Failure Patients According to NYHA Classes

Heart-rate variability has proved a valid tool in prognosis definition of patients with congestive heart failure (CHF). Previous research has documented Poincaré plot analysis as a valuable approach to study heart-rate variability performance among different subjects. In this paper, we explored the possibility to feed machine-learning (ML) algorithms using unconventional quantitative parameters extracted from Poincaré plots (generated from 24-h electrocardiogram recordings) to classify patients with CHF belonging to different New York Heart Association (NYHA) classes. We performed in sequence the following investigations: first, a statistical analysis was carried out on 9 morphological parameters, automatically measured from Poincaré plots. Subsequently, a feature selection through a wrapper with a 10-fold cross-validation method was performed to find the best subset of features which maximized the classification accuracy for each considered ML algorithm. Finally, patient classification was assessed through a ML analysis using AdaBoost of Decision Tree, k-Nearest Neighbors and Naive Bayes algorithms. A univariate statistical analysis proved 5 out of 9 parameters presented statistically significant differences among patients of distinct NYHA classes; similarly, a multivariate logistic regression confirmed the importance of the parameter ρy in the separability between low-risk and high-risk classes. The ML analysis achieved promising results in terms of evaluation metrics (especially the Naive Bayes algorithm), with accuracies greater than 80% and Area Under the Receiver Operating Curve indices greater than 0.7 for the overall three algorithms. The study indicates the proposed features have a predictive power to discriminate the NYHA classes, to which the features seem evenly correlated. Despite the NYHA classification being subjective and easily recognized by cardiologists, the potential relevance in the clinical cardiology of the proposed features and the promising ML results implies the methodology could be a valuable approach to automatically classify CHF. Future investigations on enriched datasets may further confirm the presented evidence.

Artificial Intelligence-Assisted Identification of Genetic Factors Predisposing High-Risk Individuals to Asymptomatic Heart Failure

Heart failure (HF) is a global pandemic public health burden affecting one in five of the general population in their lifetime. For high-risk individuals, early detection and prediction of HF progression reduces hospitalizations, reduces mortality, improves the individual’s quality of life, and reduces associated medical costs. In using an artificial intelligence (AI)-assisted genome-wide association study of a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) database from 117 asymptomatic high-risk individuals, we identified a SNP signature composed of 13 SNPs. These were annotated and mapped into six protein-coding genes (GAD2, APP, RASGEF1C, MACROD2, DMD, and DOCK1), a pseudogene (PGAM1P5), and various non-coding RNA genes (LINC01968, LINC00687, LOC105372209, LOC101928047, LOC105372208, and LOC105371356). The SNP signature was found to have a good performance when predicting HF progression, namely with an accuracy rate of 0.857 and an area under the curve of 0.912. Intriguingly, analysis of the protein connectivity map revealed that DMD, RASGEF1C, MACROD2, DOCK1, and PGAM1P5 appear to form a protein interaction network in the heart. This suggests that, together, they may contribute to the pathogenesis of HF. Our findings demonstrate that a combination of AI-assisted identifications of SNP signatures and clinical parameters are able to effectively identify asymptomatic high-risk subjects that are predisposed to HF.

Using Deep Learning to Identify High-Risk Patients with Heart Failure with Reduced Ejection Fraction

Background: Deep Learning (DL) has not been well-established as a method to identify high-risk patients among patients with heart failure (HF). Objectives: This study aimed to use DL models to predict hospitalizations, worsening HF events, and 30-day and 90-day readmissions in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). Methods: We analyzed the data of adult HFrEF patients from the IBM® MarketScan® Commercial and Medicare Supplement databases between January 1, 2015 and December 31, 2017. A sequential model architecture based on bi-directional long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM) layers was utilized. For DL models to predict HF hospitalizations and worsening HF events, we utilized two study designs: with and without a buffer window. For comparison, we also tested multiple traditional machine learning models including logistic regression, random forest, and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). Model performance was assessed by area under the curve (AUC) values, precision, and recall on an independent testing dataset. Results: A total of 47 498 HFrEF patients were included; 9427 with at least one HF hospitalization. The best AUCs of DL models without a buffer window in predicting HF hospitalizations and worsening HF events in the total patient cohort were 0.977 and 0.972; with a 7-day buffer window the best AUCs were 0.573 and 0.608, respectively. The best AUCs in predicting 30- and 90-day readmissions in all adult patients were 0.597 and 0.614, respectively. An AUC of 0.861 was attained for prediction of 90-day readmission in patients aged 18-64. For all outcomes assessed, the DL approach outperformed traditional machine learning models. Discussion: The DL approach can automate feature engineering during the model learning, which can increase the clinical applicability and lead to comparable or better model performance. However, the lack of granular clinical data, and sample size and imbalance issues may have limited the model's performance. Conclusions: A DL approach using Bi-LSTM was shown to be a feasible and useful tool to predict HF-related outcomes. This study can help inform the future development and deployment of predictive tools to identify high-risk HFrEF patients and ultimately facilitate targeted interventions in clinical practice.

Effect of Data Scaling Methods on Machine Learning Algorithms and Model Performance

Heart disease, one of the main reasons behind the high mortality rate around the world, requires a sophisticated and expensive diagnosis process. In the recent past, much literature has demonstrated machine learning approaches as an opportunity to efficiently diagnose heart disease patients. However, challenges associated with datasets such as missing data, inconsistent data, and mixed data (containing inconsistent missing data both as numerical and categorical) are often obstacles in medical diagnosis. This inconsistency led to a higher probability of misprediction and a misled result. Data preprocessing steps like feature reduction, data conversion, and data scaling are employed to form a standard dataset—such measures play a crucial role in reducing inaccuracy in final prediction. This paper aims to evaluate eleven machine learning (ML) algorithms—Logistic Regression (LR), Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Classification and Regression Trees (CART), Naive Bayes (NB), Support Vector Machine (SVM), XGBoost (XGB), Random Forest Classifier (RF), Gradient Boost (GB), AdaBoost (AB), Extra Tree Classifier (ET)—and six different data scaling methods—Normalization (NR), Standscale (SS), MinMax (MM), MaxAbs (MA), Robust Scaler (RS), and Quantile Transformer (QT) on a dataset comprising of information of patients with heart disease. The result shows that CART, along with RS or QT, outperforms all other ML algorithms with 100% accuracy, 100% precision, 99% recall, and 100% F1 score. The study outcomes demonstrate that the model’s performance varies depending on the data scaling method.

An integrated review on machine learning approaches for heart disease prediction: Direction towards future research gaps

Objectives

To make a clear literature review on state-of-the-art heart disease prediction models.

Methods

It reviews 61 research papers and states the significant analysis. Initially, the analysis addresses the contributions of each literature works and observes the simulation environment. Here, different types of machine learning algorithms deployed in each contribution. In addition, the utilized dataset for existing heart disease prediction models was observed.

Results

The performance measures computed in entire papers like prediction accuracy, prediction error, specificity, sensitivity, f-measure, etc., are learned. Further, the best performance is also checked to confirm the effectiveness of entire contributions.

Conclusions

The comprehensive research challenges and the gap are portrayed based on the development of intelligent methods concerning the unresolved challenges in heart disease prediction using data mining techniques.

A silicon nitride ISFET based immunosensor for tumor necrosis factor-alpha detection in saliva. A promising tool for heart failure monitoring

According to the European statistics, approximately 26 million patients worldwide suffer from heart failure (HF), and this number seems to be steadily increasing. Inflammation plays a central role in the development of HF, and the pro-inflammatory cytokine Tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) represents inflammation gold-standard biomarker. Early detection plays a crucial role for the prognosis and treatment of HF. An Ion Sensitive Field Effect Transistor (ISFET) based on silicon nitride transducer and biofunctionalized with anti-TNF-α antibody for label-free detection of salivary TNF-α is proposed. Electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) was used for TNF-α detection. Our ImmunoFET offered a detection limit of 1 pg mL^-1, with an analytical reproducibility expressed by a coefficient of variance (CV) resulted < 10% for the analysis of saliva samples, and an analyte recovery of 94 ± 6%. In addition, it demonstrated high selectivity when compared to other HF biomarkers such as Inteleukin-10, N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide, and Cortisol. Finally, ImmunoFET accuracy in determining the unknown concentration of TNF-α was successfully tested in saliva samples by performing standard addition method. The proposed ImmunoFET showed great promise as a complementary tool for biomedical application for HF monitoring by a non-invasive, rapid and accurate assessment of TNF-α.

Cost-effectiveness of cardiac resynchronization therapy plus an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator in patients with heart failure: a systematic review

INTRODUCTION

Heart failure (HF) is an unusual heart function that causes reduction in cardiac or pulmonary output. Cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) is a mechanical device that helps to recover ventricular dysfunction by pacing the ventricles. This study planned to systematically review cost-effectiveness of CRT combined with an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) versus ICD in patients with HF.

METHODS

We used five databases (NHS Economic Evaluation Database, Cochrane Library, Medline, PubMed, and Scopus) to systematically reviewed studies published in the English language on the cost-effectiveness of CRT with defibrillator (CRT-D) Vs. ICD in patients with HF over 2000 to 2020. Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) checklist was applied to assess the quality of the selected studies.

RESULTS

Five studies reporting the cost-effectiveness of CRT-D vs ICD were finally identified. The results revealed that time horizon, direct medical costs, type of model, discount rate, and sensitivity analysis obviously mentioned in almost all studies. All studies used quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) as an effectiveness measurement. The highest and the lowest Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) were reported in the USA ($138,649per QALY) and the UK ($41,787per QALY), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Result of the study showed that CRT-D compared to ICD alone was the most cost-effective treatment in patients with HF.

Impact of Big Data Analytics on People's Health: Overview of Systematic Reviews and Recommendations for Future Studies

Background

Although the potential of big data analytics for health care is well recognized, evidence is lacking on its effects on public health.

Objective

The aim of this study was to assess the impact of the use of big data analytics on people’s health based on the health indicators and core priorities in the World Health Organization (WHO) General Programme of Work 2019/2023 and the European Programme of Work (EPW), approved and adopted by its Member States, in addition to SARS-CoV-2–related studies. Furthermore, we sought to identify the most relevant challenges and opportunities of these tools with respect to people’s health.

Methods

Six databases (MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews via Cochrane Library, Web of Science, Scopus, and Epistemonikos) were searched from the inception date to September 21, 2020. Systematic reviews assessing the effects of big data analytics on health indicators were included. Two authors independently performed screening, selection, data extraction, and quality assessment using the AMSTAR-2 (A Measurement Tool to Assess Systematic Reviews 2) checklist.

Results

The literature search initially yielded 185 records, 35 of which met the inclusion criteria, involving more than 5,000,000 patients. Most of the included studies used patient data collected from electronic health records, hospital information systems, private patient databases, and imaging datasets, and involved the use of big data analytics for noncommunicable diseases. “Probability of dying from any of cardiovascular, cancer, diabetes or chronic renal disease” and “suicide mortality rate” were the most commonly assessed health indicators and core priorities within the WHO General Programme of Work 2019/2023 and the EPW 2020/2025. Big data analytics have shown moderate to high accuracy for the diagnosis and prediction of complications of diabetes mellitus as well as for the diagnosis and classification of mental disorders; prediction of suicide attempts and behaviors; and the diagnosis, treatment, and prediction of important clinical outcomes of several chronic diseases. Confidence in the results was rated as “critically low” for 25 reviews, as “low” for 7 reviews, and as “moderate” for 3 reviews. The most frequently identified challenges were establishment of a well-designed and structured data source, and a secure, transparent, and standardized database for patient data.

Conclusions

Although the overall quality of included studies was limited, big data analytics has shown moderate to high accuracy for the diagnosis of certain diseases, improvement in managing chronic diseases, and support for prompt and real-time analyses of large sets of varied input data to diagnose and predict disease outcomes.

Trial Registration

International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) CRD42020214048; https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=214048

Factors associated with family functioning in patients with heart failure and their family members: An international cross-sectional study

AIMS

To describe and compare family functioning, family health, and perceived social support from nurses and to identify the variables that are associated with family functioning in patients with heart failure (HF) and their family members in Denmark, Iran, and Iceland.

DESIGN

An international multi-centre cross-sectional study.

METHODS

A sample of 1382 participants (692 patients and 690 family members) from Denmark, Iceland, and Iran were included from January 2015 to May 2020. Data were collected using the Family Functioning, Health, and Social Support questionnaire.

RESULTS

The significant factors associated with family functioning in patients were country, New York Heart Association classification (NYHA), education level, age, family health, social support, and there was a significant interaction effect between NYHA class and gender. The significant factors associated with family functioning in family members were country, education level, work status, family health, and there was a significant interaction effect between education and work status.

CONCLUSION

This study indicated that the strongest factor associated with higher family functioning was family health for both patients and family members. Women in NYHA class I and younger patients and those with an academic education had a lower level of family functioning. Moreover, unemployed family members with an elementary education and family members with elementary and high school educations who were self-employed or employees had a lower level of family functioning.

IMPACT

This is the first international study to investigate family functioning, family health, and social support and adds to the literature on the factors associated with family functioning in patients with HF and their family members. Our findings may help nurses to identify the most vulnerable families living with HF, thereby being able to provide special support to enhance their family functioning to promote self-management strategies.

German regional variation of acute and high oral corticosteroid use for asthma

OBJECTIVE: 

To improve understanding of real-world asthma treatment and inform physician education, we evaluated regional variation in asthma prevalence and oral corticosteroid (OCS) use across Germany.

METHODS: 

We developed a machine learning gradient-boosted tree model with IMS® Disease Analyzer electronic medical records, which cover 3% of German patients. This model had a 91% accuracy in predicting the presence of asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. We applied the model to the IMS^® Longitudinal Prescription database, with 82% national coverage, to classify patients receiving treatment for airflow obstruction from October 2017-September 2018 in 63 regions in Germany.

RESULTS: 

Of 2.4 million individuals under statutory health insurance predicted to have asthma, 13.7%, 18.7%, 36.5%, 29.4%, and 1.7% received treatment classified as Global Initiative for Asthma (GINA) Steps 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5, respectively. Approximately 7-15% of those at GINA Steps 1-4 and 35% at Step 5 treatment received ≥1 acute OCS prescription (duration <10 days). Of patients receiving GINA Steps 1-4 and Step 5 treatments, 1-3% and 86%, respectively, received ≥1 high-dosage OCS prescription. Cumulative OCS dosage and percentages of patients receiving OCS differed substantially across regions, and regions with lower OCS use had greater use of biologic therapies.

CONCLUSIONS: 

Both acute and high OCS use varied regionally across Germany, with overall use suggesting patients are considerable risk of adverse effects and long-term health consequences.

Supplemental data for this article can be accessed at publisher's website.

Health State Utilities of Patients with Heart Failure: A Systematic Literature Review

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

New treatments and interventions are in development to address clinical needs in heart failure. To support decision making on reimbursement, cost-effectiveness analyses are frequently required. A systematic literature review was conducted to identify and summarize heart failure utility values for use in economic evaluations.

METHODS

Databases were searched for articles published until June 2019 that reported health utility values for patients with heart failure. Publications were reviewed with specific attention to study design; reported values were categorized according to the health states, 'chronic heart failure', 'hospitalized', and 'other acute heart failure'. Interquartile limits (25th percentile 'Q1', 75th percentile 'Q3') were calculated for health states and heart failure subgroups where there were sufficient data.

RESULTS

The systematic literature review identified 161 publications based on data from 142 studies. Utility values for chronic heart failure were reported by 128 publications; 39 publications published values for hospitalized and three for other acute heart failure. There was substantial heterogeneity in the specifics of the study populations, methods of elicitation, and summary statistics, which is reflected in the wide range of utility values reported. EQ-5D was the most used instrument; the interquartile limit for mean EQ-5D values for chronic heart failure was 0.64-0.72.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a wealth of published utility values for heart failure to support economic evaluations. Data are heterogenous owing to specificities of the study population and methodology of utility value elicitation and analysis. Choice of value(s) to support economic models must be carefully justified to ensure a robust economic analysis.

Real-World Data and Machine Learning to Predict Cardiac Amyloidosis

(1) Background: Cardiac amyloidosis or “stiff heart syndrome” is a rare condition that occurs when amyloid deposits occupy the heart muscle. Many patients suffer from it and fail to receive a timely diagnosis mainly because the disease is a rare form of restrictive cardiomyopathy that is difficult to diagnose, often associated with a poor prognosis. This research analyses the characteristics of this pathology and proposes a statistical learning algorithm that helps to detect the disease. (2) Methods: The hospitalization clinical (medical and nursing ones) records used for this study are the basis of the learning and training techniques of the algorithm. The approach consisted of using the information generated by the patients in each admission and discharge episode and treating it as data vectors to facilitate their aggregation. The large volume of clinical histories implied a high dimensionality of the data, and the lack of diagnosis led to a severe class imbalance caused by the low prevalence of the disease. (3) Results: Although there are few patients with amyloidosis in this study, the proposed approach demonstrates that it is possible to learn from clinical records despite the lack of data. In the validation phase, the algorithm first acted on data from the general study population. It then was applied to a sample of patients diagnosed with heart failure. The results revealed that the algorithm detects disease when data vectors profile each disease episode. (4) Conclusions: The prediction levels showed that this technique could be useful in screening processes on a specific population to detect the disease.

Diagnostic, prognostic and therapeutic potential of 6-minute walk test in patients with heart failure

The six-minute walk test (6MWT) is a well-known exercise test used in medical practice to assess the functional status of patients with various chronic cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. The results of modern research describe new potential of 6MWT, which allow a more accurate interpretation and predict the course of diseases. Heart failure (HF) is the outcome of many structural and functional heart disorders. To improve the prognosis of patients with HF, early diagnosis, appropriate therapy and effective control of the disease course are important components. This review describes the diagnostic, prognostic and therapeutic potential of 6MWT in patients with HF.

Living with heart failure: perspectives of ethnic minority families

Background

The family perspective on heart failure (HF) has an important role in patients’ self-care patterns, adjustment to the disease and quality of life. Little is known about families’ experiences of living with HF, particularly in ethnic minority families. This study describes the experiences of Iranian families living with HF as an ethnic minority family in Denmark.

Methods

In this descriptive qualitative study, we conducted eight face-to-face joint family interviews of Iranian patients with HF and their family members living in Denmark. We used content analysis with an inductive approach for data analysis.

Results

We identified three categories: family daily life, process of independence and family relationships. Families were faced with physical restrictions, emotional distress and social limitations in their daily lives that threatened the patients’ independence. Different strategies were used to promote independence. One strategy was normalisation and avoiding the sick role; another strategy was accepting and adjusting themselves to challenges and limitations. The independence process itself had an impact on family relationships. Adjusting well to the new situation strengthened the relationship, while having problems in adjustment strained the relationship within the family.

Conclusions

This study highlights the process of independence as perceived by families living with HF. It is crucial to both families and healthcare professionals to maintain a balance between providing adequate support and ensuring independence when dealing with patients with HF. Understanding patients’ stories and their needs seems to be helpful in gaining this balance.

Classification of Congestive Heart Failure from ECG Segments with a Multi-Scale Residual Network

Congestive heart failure (CHF) poses a serious threat to human health. Once the diagnosis of CHF is established, clinical experts need to assess the severity of CHF in a timely manner. It is proved that electrocardiogram (ECG) signals are useful for assessing the severity of CHF. However, since the ECG perturbations are subtle, it is difficult for doctors to detect the differences of ECGs. In order to help doctors to make an accurate diagnosis, we proposed a novel multi-scale residual network (ResNet) to automatically classify CHF into four classifications according to the New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional classification system. Furthermore, in order to make the reported results more realistic, we used an inter-patient paradigm to divide the dataset, and segmented the ECG signals into two different intervals. The experimental results show that the proposed multi-scale ResNet-34 has achieved an average positive predictive value, sensitivity and accuracy of 93.49%, 93.44% and 93.60% respectively for two seconds of ECG segments. We have also obtained an average positive predictive value, sensitivity and accuracy of 94.16%, 93.79% and 94.29% respectively for five seconds of ECG segments. The proposed method can be used as an auxiliary tool to help doctors to classify CHF.

Clinical applications of machine learning in the diagnosis, classification, and prediction of heart failure

Machine learning and artificial intelligence are generating significant attention in the scientific community and media. Such algorithms have great potential in medicine for personalizing and improving patient care, including in the diagnosis and management of heart failure. Many physicians are familiar with these terms and the excitement surrounding them, but many are unfamiliar with the basics of these algorithms and how they are applied to medicine. Within heart failure research, current applications of machine learning include creating new approaches to diagnosis, classifying patients into novel phenotypic groups, and improving prediction capabilities. In this paper, we provide an overview of machine learning targeted for the practicing clinician and evaluate current applications of machine learning in the diagnosis, classification, and prediction of heart failure.

Clinical applications of machine learning in cardiovascular disease and its relevance to cardiac imaging

Artificial intelligence (AI) has transformed key aspects of human life. Machine learning (ML), which is a subset of AI wherein machines autonomously acquire information by extracting patterns from large databases, has been increasingly used within the medical community, and specifically within the domain of cardiovascular diseases. In this review, we present a brief overview of ML methodologies that are used for the construction of inferential and predictive data-driven models. We highlight several domains of ML application such as echocardiography, electrocardiography, and recently developed non-invasive imaging modalities such as coronary artery calcium scoring and coronary computed tomography angiography. We conclude by reviewing the limitations associated with contemporary application of ML algorithms within the cardiovascular disease field.

Usefulness of heart rhythm complexity in heart failure detection and diagnosis

Heart failure (HF) is a major cardiovascular disease worldwide, and the early detection and diagnosis remain challenges. Recently, heart rhythm complexity analysis, derived from non-linear heart rate variability (HRV) analysis, has been proposed as a non-invasive method to detect diseases and predict outcomes. In this study, we aimed to investigate the diagnostic value of heart rhythm complexity in HF patients. We prospectively analyzed 55 patients with symptomatic HF with impaired left ventricular ejection fraction and 97 participants without HF symptoms and normal LVEF as controls. Traditional linear HRV parameters and heart rhythm complexity including detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and multiscale entropy (MSE) were analyzed. The traditional linear HRV, MSE parameters and DFAα1 were significantly lower in HF patients compared with controls. In regression analysis, DFAα1 and MSE scale 5 remained significant predictors after adjusting for multiple clinical variables. Among all HRV parameters, MSE scale 5 had the greatest power to differentiate the HF patients from the controls in receiver operating characteristic curve analysis (area under the curve: 0.844). In conclusion, heart rhythm complexity appears to be a promising tool for the detection and diagnosis of HF.

Toward Neurosubtypes in Autism

There is a consensus that substantial heterogeneity underlies the neurobiology of autism spectrum disorder (ASD). As such, it has become increasingly clear that a dissection of variation at the molecular, cellular, and brain network domains is a prerequisite for identifying biomarkers. Neuroimaging has been widely used to characterize atypical brain patterns in ASD, although findings have varied across studies. This is due, at least in part, to a failure to account for neurobiological heterogeneity. Here, we summarize emerging data-driven efforts to delineate more homogeneous ASD subgroups at the level of brain structure and function-that is, neurosubtyping. We break this pursuit into key methodological steps: the selection of diagnostic samples, neuroimaging features, algorithms, and validation approaches. Although preliminary and methodologically diverse, current studies generally agree that at least 2 to 4 distinct ASD neurosubtypes may exist. Their identification improved symptom prediction and diagnostic label accuracy above and beyond group average comparisons. Yet, this nascent literature has shed light onto challenges and gaps. These include 1) the need for wider and more deeply transdiagnostic samples collected while minimizing artifacts (e.g., head motion), 2) quantitative and unbiased methods for feature selection and multimodal fusion, 3) greater emphasis on algorithms' ability to capture hybrid dimensional and categorical models of ASD, and 4) systematic independent replications and validations that integrate different units of analyses across multiple scales. Solutions aimed to address these challenges and gaps are discussed for future avenues leading toward a comprehensive understanding of the mechanisms underlying ASD heterogeneity.