Warming by 1°C Drives Species and Assemblage Level Responses in Antarctica's Marine Shallows

Climate change in cold regions

Cold regions around the world include Arctic, Antarctic and High Mountain regions featuring low temperatures, ice-covered landscapes, permafrost, and unique ecologic interrelations. These environments are among the most sensitive to climate change and are changing rapidly as the global climate gets warmer. This editorial explores the complexity of the impacts of climate change on cold regions, highlighting recent changes across Earth system. The Special Issue here presented compiles studies that explore the climate change in different cold regions from various perspectives, including paleoclimatic reconstructions, isotherm shifts and climate projections. Despite progress, significant questions remain, demanding interdisciplinary approaches to better understand the interconnected factors shaping cold regions.

Southward migration of the zero-degree isotherm latitude over the Southern Ocean and the Antarctic Peninsula: Cryospheric, biotic and societal implications

The seasonal movement of the zero-degree isotherm across the Southern Ocean and Antarctic Peninsula drives major changes in the physical and biological processes around maritime Antarctica. These include spatial and temporal shifts in precipitation phase, snow accumulation and melt, thawing and freezing of the active layer of the permafrost, glacier mass balance variations, sea ice mass balance and changes in physiological processes of biodiversity. Here, we characterize the historical seasonal southward movement of the monthly near-surface zero-degree isotherm latitude (ZIL), and quantify the velocity of migration in the context of climate change using climate reanalyses and projections. From 1957 to 2020, the ZIL exhibited a significant southward shift of 16.8 km decade-1 around Antarctica and of 23.8 km decade-1 in the Antarctic Peninsula, substantially faster than the global mean velocity of temperature change of 4.2 km decade-1, with only a small fraction being attributed to the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). CMIP6 models reproduce the trends observed from 1957 to 2014 and predict a further southward migration around Antarctica of 24 ± 12 km decade-1 and 50 ± 19 km decade-1 under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. The southward migration of the ZIL is expected to have major impacts on the cryosphere, especially on the precipitation phase, snow accumulation and in peripheral glaciers of the Antarctic Peninsula, with more uncertain changes on permafrost, ice sheets and shelves, and sea ice. Longer periods of temperatures above 0 °C threshold will extend active biological periods in terrestrial ecosystems and will reduce the extent of oceanic ice cover, changing phenologies as well as areas of productivity in marine ecosystems, especially those located on the sea ice edge.

Facilitation of animals is stronger during summer marine heatwaves and around morphologically complex foundation species

Foundation species create biogenic habitats, modify environmental conditions, augment biodiversity, and control animal community structures. In recent decades, marine heatwaves (MHWs) have affected the ecology of foundation species worldwide, and perhaps also their associated animal communities. However, no realistic field experiment has tested how MHWs affect animals that live in and around these foundation species. We therefore tested, in a four-factorial field experiment, if colonisation by small mobile marine animals (epifauna) onto plates with attached single versus co-occurring foundation species of different morphological complexities, were affected by 3-5°C heating (that mirrored a recent extreme MHW in the study area) and if the heating effect on the epifauna varied within and between seasons. For this experiment mimics of turf seaweed represented the single foundation species and holdfasts of seven common canopy-forming seaweed represented the co-occurring foundation species with different morphological complexities. We found that the taxonomic richness and total abundance of epifauna, dominated by copepods, generally were higher on heated plates with complex seaweed holdfasts in warmer summer trials. Furthermore, several interactions between test-factors were significant, e.g., epifaunal abundances, were, across taxonomic groups, generally higher in warmer than colder summer trials. These results suggest that, in temperate ecosystems, small, mobile, short-lived, and fast-growing marine epifauna can be facilitated by warmer oceans and morphologically complex foundation species, implying that future MHWs may increase secondary production and trophic transfers between primary producers and fish. Future studies should test whether these results can be scaled to other ecological species-interactions, across latitudes and biogeographical regions, and if similar results are found after longer MHWs or within live foundation species under real MHW conditions.

Responding to warming in polar oceans: A commentary on Molina et al. (2022)

Antarctic marine species live in one of the most thermally stable environments on Earth. They have evolved in these cold stable conditions for many millions of years. The long period for evolution, the isolation and mixing of populations produced by glacial cycles and the environmental heterogeneity in terms of light, productivity and physical disturbance, has produced a diverse fauna with an estimated 20 000 species, or more, living on the seabed. It has also produced a fauna that is possibly the most sensitive to warming on Earth in an environment that is changing faster than most, if not all, others. There is a great need to understand this threatened biodiversity and to find ways to mitigate the future prospects of species loss in this special environment that supports unique biology including the only vertebrate species on Earth that live without haemoglobin.

Antarctic Seabed Assemblages in an Ice-Shelf-Adjacent Polynya, Western Weddell Sea

Ice shelves cover ~1.6 million km² of the Antarctic continental shelf and are sensitive indicators of climate change. With ice-shelf retreat, aphotic marine environments transform into new open-water spaces of photo-induced primary production and associated organic matter export to the benthos. Predicting how Antarctic seafloor assemblages may develop following ice-shelf loss requires knowledge of assemblages bordering the ice-shelf margins, which are relatively undocumented. This study investigated seafloor assemblages, by taxa and functional groups, in a coastal polynya adjacent to the Larsen C Ice Shelf front, western Weddell Sea. The study area is rarely accessed, at the frontline of climate change, and located within a CCAMLR-proposed international marine protected area. Four sites, ~1 to 16 km from the ice-shelf front, were explored for megabenthic assemblages, and potential environmental drivers of assemblage structures were assessed. Faunal density increased with distance from the ice shelf, with epifaunal deposit-feeders a surrogate for overall density trends. Faunal richness did not exhibit a significant pattern with distance from the ice shelf and was most variable at sites closest to the ice-shelf front. Faunal assemblages significantly differed in composition among sites, and those nearest to the ice shelf were the most dissimilar; however, ice-shelf proximity did not emerge as a significant driver of assemblage structure. Overall, the study found a biologically-diverse and complex seafloor environment close to an ice-shelf front and provides ecological baselines for monitoring benthic ecosystem responses to environmental change, supporting marine management.

Impact of in Situ Simulated Climate Change on Communities and Non-Indigenous Species: Two Climates, Two Responses

Climate change constitutes a major challenge for marine urban ecosystems and ocean warming will likely strongly affect local communities. Non-Indigenous Species (NIS) have been shown to often have higher heat resistance than natives, but studies investigating how forthcoming global warming might affect them in marine urban environments remain scarce, especially in Situ studies. Here we used an in Situ warming experiment in a NW Mediterranean (warm temperate) and a NE Atlantic (cold temperate) marina to see how global warming might affect recruited communities in the near future. In both marinas, warming resulted in significantly different community structure, lower biomass, and more empty space compared to control. However, while in the warm temperate marina, NIS showed an increased surface cover, it was reduced in the cold temperate one. Metabolomic analyses on Bugula neritina in the Atlantic marina revealed potential heat stress experienced by this introduced bryozoan and a potential link between heat stress and the expression of a halogenated alkaloid, Caelestine A. The present results might indicate that the effects of global warming on the prevalence of NIS may differ between geographical provinces, which could be investigated by larger scale studies.

How do we best synergize climate mitigation actions to co-benefit biodiversity?

A multitude of actions to protect, sustainably manage and restore natural and modified ecosystems can have co-benefits for both climate mitigation and biodiversity conservation. Reducing greenhouse emissions to limit warming to less than 1.5 or 2°C above preindustrial levels, as outlined in the Paris Agreement, can yield strong co-benefits for land, freshwater and marine biodiversity and reduce amplifying climate feedbacks from ecosystem changes. Not all climate mitigation strategies are equally effective at producing biodiversity co-benefits, some in fact are counterproductive. Moreover, social implications are often overlooked within the climate-biodiversity nexus. Protecting biodiverse and carbon-rich natural environments, ecological restoration of potentially biodiverse and carbon-rich habitats, the deliberate creation of novel habitats, taking into consideration a locally adapted and meaningful (i.e. full consequences considered) mix of these measures, can result in the most robust win-win solutions. These can be further enhanced by avoidance of narrow goals, taking long-term views and minimizing further losses of intact ecosystems. In this review paper, we first discuss various climate mitigation actions that evidence demonstrates can negatively impact biodiversity, resulting in unseen and unintended negative consequences. We then examine climate mitigation actions that co-deliver biodiversity and societal benefits. We give examples of these win-win solutions, categorized as 'protect, restore, manage and create', in different regions of the world that could be expanded, upscaled and used for further innovation.

Life in the freezer: protein metabolism in Antarctic fish

Whole-animal, in vivo protein metabolism rates have been reported in temperate and tropical, but not Antarctic fish. Growth in Antarctic species is generally slower than lower latitude species. Protein metabolism data for Antarctic invertebrates show low rates of protein synthesis and unusually high rates of protein degradation. Additionally, in Antarctic fish, increasing evidence suggests a lower frequency of successful folding of nascent proteins and reduced protein stability. This study reports the first whole-animal protein metabolism data for an Antarctic fish. Groups of Antarctic, Harpagifer antarcticus, and temperate, Lipophrys pholis, fish were acclimatized to a range of overlapping water temperatures and food consumption, whole-animal growth and protein metabolism measured. The rates of protein synthesis and growth in Antarctic, but not temperate fish, were relatively insensitive to temperature and were significantly lower in H. antarcticus at 3°C than in L. pholis. Protein degradation was independent of temperature in H. antarcticus and not significantly different to L. pholis at 3°C, while protein synthesis retention efficiency was significantly higher in L. pholis than H. antarcticus at 3°C. These results suggest Antarctic fish degrade a significantly larger proportion of synthesized protein than temperate fish, with fundamental energetic implications for growth at low temperatures.

Variable heat shock response in Antarctic biofouling serpulid worms

The classical heat shock response (HSR) with up-regulation of hsp70 in response to warming is often absent in Antarctic marine species. Whilst in Antarctic fish, this is due to a mutation in the gene promoter region resulting in permanent constitutive expression of the inducible form of hsp70; there are further questions as to whether evolution to life below 0 °C has resulted in a generalised alteration to the HSR in Antarctic marine invertebrates. However, the number of species investigated to date is limited. In the first evaluation of the HSR in two spirorbid polychaetes Romanchella perrieri and Protolaeospira stalagmia, we show highly variable results of HSR induction depending on warming regimes. These animals were subjected to in situ warming (+ 1 °C and + 2 °C above ambient conditions) using heated settlement panels for 18 months, and then the HSR was tested in R. perrieri using acute and chronic temperature elevation trials. The classic HSR was not induced in response to acute thermal challenge in this species (2 h at 15 °C) and significant down-regulation of hsp90 occurred during chronic warming at 4 °C for 30 days. Analysis of heat shock protein (HSP) genes in a transcriptome study of P. stalagmia, which had been warmed in situ for 18 months, showed up-regulation of HSP70 and HSP90 family members, thus further emphasising the complexity of the response in Antarctic marine species. It is increasingly apparent that the Antarctic HSR has evolved in a species-specific manner to life in the cold.

Biodiversity of coral reef cryptobiota shuffles but does not decline under the combined stressors of ocean warming and acidification

Ocean-warming and acidification are predicted to reduce coral reef biodiversity, but the combined effects of these stressors on overall biodiversity are largely unmeasured. Here, we examined the individual and combined effects of elevated temperature (+2 °C) and reduced pH (-0.2 units) on the biodiversity of coral reef communities that developed on standardized sampling units over a 2-y mesocosm experiment. Biodiversity and species composition were measured using amplicon sequencing libraries targeting the cytochrome oxidase I (COI) barcoding gene. Ocean-warming significantly increased species richness relative to present-day control conditions, whereas acidification significantly reduced richness. Contrary to expectations, species richness in the combined future ocean treatment with both warming and acidification was not significantly different from the present-day control treatment. Rather than the predicted collapse of biodiversity under the dual stressors, we find significant changes in the relative abundance but not in the occurrence of species, resulting in a shuffling of coral reef community structure among the highly species-rich cryptobenthic community. The ultimate outcome of altered community structure for coral reef ecosystems will depend on species-specific ecological functions and community interactions. Given that most species on coral reefs are members of the understudied cryptobenthos, holistic research on reef communities is needed to accurately predict diversity-function relationships and ecosystem responses to future climate conditions.

Societal importance of Antarctic negative feedbacks on climate change: blue carbon gains from sea ice, ice shelf and glacier losses

Diminishing prospects for environmental preservation under climate change are intensifying efforts to boost capture, storage and sequestration (long-term burial) of carbon. However, as Earth’s biological carbon sinks also shrink, remediation has become a key part of the narrative for terrestrial ecosystems. In contrast, blue carbon on polar continental shelves have stronger pathways to sequestration and have increased with climate-forced marine ice losses—becoming the largest known natural negative feedback on climate change. Here we explore the size and complex dynamics of blue carbon gains with spatiotemporal changes in sea ice (60–100 MtCyear⁻¹), ice shelves (4–40 MtCyear⁻¹ = giant iceberg generation) and glacier retreat (< 1 MtCyear⁻¹). Estimates suggest that, amongst these, reduced duration of seasonal sea ice is most important. Decreasing sea ice extent drives longer (not necessarily larger biomass) smaller cell-sized phytoplankton blooms, increasing growth of many primary consumers and benthic carbon storage—where sequestration chances are maximal. However, sea ice losses also create positive feedbacks in shallow waters through increased iceberg movement and scouring of benthos. Unlike loss of sea ice, which enhances existing sinks, ice shelf losses generate brand new carbon sinks both where giant icebergs were, and in their wake. These also generate small positive feedbacks from scouring, minimised by repeat scouring at biodiversity hotspots. Blue carbon change from glacier retreat has been least well quantified, and although emerging fjords are small areas, they have high storage-sequestration conversion efficiencies, whilst blue carbon in polar waters faces many diverse and complex stressors. The identity of these are known (e.g. fishing, warming, ocean acidification, non-indigenous species and plastic pollution) but not their magnitude of impact. In order to mediate multiple stressors, research should focus on wider verification of blue carbon gains, projecting future change, and the broader environmental and economic benefits to safeguard blue carbon ecosystems through law.

Intermediate ice scour disturbance is key to maintaining a peak in biodiversity within the shallows of the Western Antarctic Peninsula

Climate-related disturbance regimes are changing rapidly with profound consequences for ecosystems. Disturbance is often perceived as detrimental to biodiversity; however, the literature is divided on how they influence each other. Disturbance events in nature are diverse, occurring across numerous interacting trophic levels and multiple spatial and temporal scales, leading to divergence between empirical and theoretical studies. The shallow Antarctic seafloor has one of the largest disturbance gradients on earth, due to iceberg scouring. Scour rates are changing rapidly along the Western Antarctic Peninsula because of climate change and with further changes predicted, the Antarctic benthos will likely undergo dramatic shifts in diversity. We investigated benthic macro and megafaunal richness across 10–100 m depth range, much of which, 40–100 m, has rarely been sampled. Macro and megafauna species richness peaked at 50–60 m depth, a depth dominated by a diverse range of sessile suspension feeders, with an intermediate level of iceberg disturbance. Our results show that a broad range of disturbance values are required to detect the predicted peak in biodiversity that is consistent with the Intermediate Disturbance Hypothesis, suggesting ice scour is key to maintaining high biodiversity in Antarctica’s shallows.

Is the southern crab Halicarcinus planatus (Fabricius, 1775) the next invader of Antarctica?

The potential for biological colonization of Antarctic shores is an increasingly important topic in the context of anthropogenic warming. Successful Antarctic invasions to date have been recorded exclusively from terrestrial habitats. While non-native marine species such as crabs, mussels and tunicates have already been reported from Antarctic coasts, none have as yet established there. Among the potential marine invaders of Antarctic shallow waters is Halicarcinus planatus (Fabricius, 1775), a crab with a circum-Subantarctic distribution and substantial larval dispersal capacity. An ovigerous female of this species was found in shallow waters of Deception Island, South Shetland Islands in 2010. A combination of physiological experiments and ecological modelling was used to assess the potential niche of H. planatus and estimate its future southward boundaries under climate change scenarios. We show that H. planatus has a minimum thermal limit of 1°C, and that its current distribution (assessed by sampling and niche modelling) is physiologically restricted to the Subantarctic region. While this species is presently unable to survive in Antarctica, future warming under both 'strong mitigation' and 'no mitigation' greenhouse gas emission scenarios will favour its niche expansion to the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) by 2100. Future human activity also has potential to increase the probability of anthropogenic translocation of this species into Antarctic ecosystems.

Can Antarctica's shallow zoobenthos 'bounce back' from iceberg scouring impacts driven by climate change?

All coastal systems experience disturbances and many across the planet are under unprecedented threat from an intensification of a variety of stressors. The West Antarctic Peninsula is a hotspot of physical climate change and has experienced a dramatic loss of sea-ice and glaciers in recent years. Among other things, sea-ice immobilizes icebergs, reducing collisions between icebergs and the seabed, thus decreasing ice-scouring. Ice disturbance drives patchiness in successional stages across seabed assemblages in Antarctica's shallows, making this an ideal system to understand the ecosystem resilience to increasing disturbance with climate change. We monitored a shallow benthic ecosystem before, during and after a 3-year pulse of catastrophic ice-scouring events and show that such systems can return, or bounce back, to previous states within 10 years. Our long-term data series show that recovery can happen more rapidly than expected, when disturbances abate, even in highly sensitive cold, polar environments.

Local Drivers of Change in Southern Ocean Ecosystems: Human Activities and Policy Implications

Local drivers are human activities or processes that occur in specific locations, and cause physical or ecological change at the local or regional scale. Here, we consider marine and land-derived pollution, non-indigenous species, tourism and other human visits, exploitation of marine resources, recovery of marine mammals, and coastal change as a result of ice loss, in terms of their historic and current extent, and their interactions with the Southern Ocean environment. We summarise projected increases or decreases in the influence of local drivers, and projected changes to their geographic range, concluding that the influence of non-indigenous species, fishing, and the recovery of marine mammals are predicted to increase in the future across the Southern Ocean. Local drivers can be managed regionally, and we identify existing governance frameworks as part of the Antarctic Treaty System and other instruments which may be employed to mitigate or limit their impacts on Southern Ocean ecosystems.

1 °C warming increases spatial competition frequency and complexity in Antarctic marine macrofauna

Environmental conditions of the Southern Ocean around Antarctica have varied little for >5 million years but are now changing. Here, we investigated how warming affects competition for space. Little considered in the polar regions, this is a critical component of biodiversity response. Change in competition in response to environment forcing might be detectable earlier than individual species presence/absence or performance measures (e.g. growth). Examination of fauna on artificial substrata in Antarctica’s shallows at ambient or warmed temperature found that, mid-century predicted 1°C warming (throughout the year or just summer-only), increased the probability of individuals encountering spatial competition, as well as density and complexity of such interactions. 2°C, late century predicted warming, increased variance in the probability and density of competition, but overall, competition did not significantly differ from ambient (control) levels. In summary only 1°C warming increased probability, density and complexity of spatial competition, which seems to be summer-only driven.

David Barnes et al. observe spatial competition of fauna on artificial substrata in the West Antarctic Peninsula and found that while 1°C warming increased the probability, density, and complexity of spatial competition, competition did not increase with 2°C warming. These results help improve understanding of responses of competitive pairings between species to global physical change and suggest an increase in competition intensity with moderate warming seems likely.

A Polar outlook: Potential interactions of micro- and nano-plastic with other anthropogenic stressors

Polar marine ecosystems may have higher sensitivity than other ecosystems to plastic pollution due to recurrent physical and biological features; presence of ice and high UV radiation, slow growth rates and weak genetic differentiation of resident biota, accumulation of persistent organic pollutants and heavy metals, and fast rates of warming and global ocean acidification. Here, we discuss potential sources of and exposure to micro- and nano-plastic in polar marine ecosystems and potential mixture effects of micro- and nano-plastic coupled with chemical and climate related stressors. We address the anthropogenic contaminants likely to be 'high risk' for interactions in Arctic and Antarctic waters for reasons such as accumulation under sea-ice, a known sink for plastic particulates. Consequently, we address the potential for localised plastic-chemical interactions and possible seasonal fluctuations in interactions associated with freeze-thaw events. The risks for keystone polar species are also considered, incorporating the behavioural and physiological traits of biota and addressing potential 'hotspot' areas. Finally, we discuss a possible direction for future research.

A century of coping with environmental and ecological changes via compensatory biomineralization in mussels

Accurate biological models are critical to predict biotic responses to climate change and human-caused disturbances. Current understanding of organismal responses to change stems from studies over relatively short timescales. However, most projections lack long-term observations incorporating the potential for transgenerational phenotypic plasticity and genetic adaption, the keys to resistance. Here, we describe unexpected temporal compensatory responses in biomineralization as a mechanism for resistance to altered environmental conditions and predation impacts in a calcifying foundation species. We evaluated exceptional archival specimens of the blue mussel Mytilus edulis collected regularly between 1904 and 2016 along 15 km of Belgian coastline, along with records of key environmental descriptors and predators. Contrary to global-scale predictions, shell production increased over the last century, highlighting a protective capacity of mussels for qualitative and quantitative trade-offs in biomineralization as compensatory responses to altered environments. We also demonstrated the role of changes in predator communities in stimulating unanticipated biological trends that run contrary to experimental predictive models under future climate scenarios. Analysis of archival records has a key role for anticipating emergent impacts of climate change.

Perspective: Increasing blue carbon around Antarctica is an ecosystem service of considerable societal and economic value worth protecting

Precautionary conservation and cooperative global governance are needed to protect Antarctic blue carbon: the world's largest increasing natural form of carbon storage with high sequestration potential. As patterns of ice loss around Antarctica become more uniform, there is an underlying increase in carbon capture-to-storage-to-sequestration on the seafloor. The amount of carbon captured per unit area is increasing and the area available to blue carbon is also increasing. Carbon sequestration could further increase under moderate (+1°C) ocean warming, contrary to decreasing global blue carbon stocks elsewhere. For example, in warmer waters, mangroves and seagrasses are in decline and benthic organisms are close to their physiological limits, so a 1°C increase in water temperature could push them above their thermal tolerance (e.g. bleaching of coral reefs). In contrast, on the basis of past change and current research, we expect that Antarctic blue carbon could increase by orders of magnitude. The Antarctic seafloor is biophysically unique and the site of carbon sequestration, the benthos, faces less anthropogenic disturbance than any other ocean continental shelf environment. This isolation imparts both vulnerability to change, and an avenue to conserve one of the world's last biodiversity refuges. In economic terms, the value of Antarctic blue carbon is estimated at between £0.65 and £1.76 billion (~2.27 billion USD) for sequestered carbon in the benthos around the continental shelf. To balance biodiversity protection against society's economic objectives, this paper builds on a proposal incentivising protection by building a 'non-market framework' via the 2015 Paris Agreement to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This could be connected and coordinated through the Antarctic Treaty System to promote and motivate member states to value Antarctic blue carbon and maintain scientific integrity and conservation for the positive societal values ingrained in the Antarctic Treaty System.

Antarctic ecosystems in transition - life between stresses and opportunities

Important findings from the second decade of the 21st century on the impact of environmental change on biological processes in the Antarctic were synthesised by 26 international experts. Ten key messages emerged that have stakeholder-relevance and/or a high impact for the scientific community. They address (i) altered biogeochemical cycles, (ii) ocean acidification, (iii) climate change hotspots, (iv) unexpected dynamism in seabed-dwelling populations, (v) spatial range shifts, (vi) adaptation and thermal resilience, (vii) sea ice related biological fluctuations, (viii) pollution, (ix) endangered terrestrial endemism and (x) the discovery of unknown habitats. Most Antarctic biotas are exposed to multiple stresses and considered vulnerable to environmental change due to narrow tolerance ranges, rapid change, projected circumpolar impacts, low potential for timely genetic adaptation, and migration barriers. Important ecosystem functions, such as primary production and energy transfer between trophic levels, have already changed, and biodiversity patterns have shifted. A confidence assessment of the degree of 'scientific understanding' revealed an intermediate level for most of the more detailed sub-messages, indicating that process-oriented research has been successful in the past decade. Additional efforts are necessary, however, to achieve the level of robustness in scientific knowledge that is required to inform protection measures of the unique Antarctic terrestrial and marine ecosystems, and their contributions to global biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Microplastic pollution in a rapidly changing world: Implications for remote and vulnerable marine ecosystems

Ecosystems in remote regions tend to be highly specific, having historically evolved over long timescales in relatively constant environmental conditions, with little human influence. Such regions are amongst those most physically altering and biologically threatened by global climate change. In addition, they are increasingly receiving anthropogenic pollution. Microplastic pollution has now been found in these most remote places on earth, far from most human activities. Microplastics can induce complex and wide-ranging physical and chemical effects but little to date is known of their long-term biological impacts. In combination with climate-induced stress, microplastics may lead to enhanced multi-stress impacts, potentially affecting the health and resilience of species and ecosystems. While species in historically populated areas have had some opportunity to adapt to mounting human influence over centuries and millennia, the relatively rapid intensification of widespread anthropogenic activities in recent decades has provided species in previously 'untouched' regions little such opportunities. The characteristics of remote ecosystems and the species therein suggest that they could be more sensitive to the combined effects of microplastic pollution, global physical change and other stressors than elsewhere. Here we discuss how species and ecosystems within two remote yet contrasting regions, coastal Antarctica and the deep sea, might be especially vulnerable to harm from microplastic pollution in the context of a rapidly changing environment.

Spatial patterns of continental shelf faunal community structure along the Western Antarctic Peninsula

Knowledge of continental shelf faunal biodiversity of Antarctica is patchy and as such, the ecology of this unique ecosystem is not fully understood. To this end, we deployed baited cameras at 20 locations along ~ 500 km of the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) at depths from 90 to 797 m. We identified 111 unique taxa, with mud bottom accounting for 90% of the dominant (≥ 50% cover) habitat sampled. Amphipoda comprised 41% of the total maximum number of individuals per camera deployment (MaxN) and occurred on 75% of deployments. Excluding this taxon, the highest MaxN occurred around King George/25 de Mayo Island and was driven primarily by the abundance of krill (Euphausiidae), which accounted for 36% of total average MaxN among deployments around this island. In comparison, krill comprised 22% of total average MaxN at Deception Island and only 10% along the peninsula. Taxa richness, diversity, and evenness all increased with depth and depth explained 18.2% of the variation in community structure among locations, which may be explained by decreasing ice scour with depth. We identified a number of Vulnerable Marine Ecosystem taxa, including habitat-forming species of cold-water corals and sponge fields. Channichthyidae was the most common fish family, occurring on 80% of all deployments. The Antarctic jonasfish (Notolepis coatsorum) was the most frequently encountered fish taxa, occurring on 70% of all deployments and comprising 25% of total MaxN among all deployments. Nototheniidae was the most numerically abundant fish family, accounting for 36% of total MaxN and was present on 70% of the deployments. The WAP is among the fastest warming regions on Earth and mitigating the impacts of warming, along with more direct impacts such as those from fishing, is critical in providing opportunities for species to adapt to environmental change and to preserve this unique ecosystem.

Disturbance, dispersal and marine assemblage structure: A case study from the nearshore Southern Ocean

Disturbance is a key factor in most natural environments and, globally, disturbance regimes are changing, driven by increased anthropogenic influences, including climate change. There is, however, still a lack of understanding about how disturbance interacts with species dispersal capacity to shape marine assemblage structure. We examined the impact of ice scour disturbance history (2009-2016) on the nearshore seafloor in a highly disturbed region of the Western Antarctic Peninsula by contrasting the response of two groups with different dispersal capacities: one consisting of high-dispersal species (mobile with pelagic larvae) and one of low-dispersal species (sessile with benthic larvae). Piecewise Structural Equation Models were constructed to test multi-factorial predictions of the underlying mechanisms, based on hypothesised responses to disturbance for the two groups. At least two or three disturbance factors, acting at different spatial scales, drove assemblage composition. A comparison between both high- and low-dispersal models demonstrated that these mechanisms are dispersal dependent. Disturbance should not be treated as a single metric, but should incorporate remote and direct disturbance events with consideration of taxa-dispersal and disturbance legacy. These modelling approaches can provide insights into how disturbance shapes assemblages in other disturbance regimes, such as fire-prone forests and trawl fisheries.

Molecular mechanisms of biomineralization in marine invertebrates

Much recent marine research has been directed towards understanding the effects of anthropogenic-induced environmental change on marine biodiversity, particularly for those animals with heavily calcified exoskeletons, such as corals, molluscs and urchins. This is because life in our oceans is becoming more challenging for these animals with changes in temperature, pH and salinity. In the future, it will be more energetically expensive to make marine skeletons and the increasingly corrosive conditions in seawater are expected to result in the dissolution of these external skeletons. However, initial predictions of wide-scale sensitivity are changing as we understand more about the mechanisms underpinning skeletal production (biomineralization). These studies demonstrate the complexity of calcification pathways and the cellular responses of animals to these altered conditions. Factors including parental conditioning, phenotypic plasticity and epigenetics can significantly impact the production of skeletons and thus future population success. This understanding is paralleled by an increase in our knowledge of the genes and proteins involved in biomineralization, particularly in some phyla, such as urchins, molluscs and corals. This Review will provide a broad overview of our current understanding of the factors affecting skeletal production in marine invertebrates. It will focus on the molecular mechanisms underpinning biomineralization and how knowledge of these processes affects experimental design and our ability to predict responses to climate change. Understanding marine biomineralization has many tangible benefits in our changing world, including improvements in conservation and aquaculture and exploitation of natural calcified structure design using biomimicry approaches that are aimed at producing novel biocomposites.

Blue carbon gains from glacial retreat along Antarctic fjords: What should we expect?

Rising atmospheric CO₂ is intensifying climate change but it is also driving global and particularly polar greening. However, most blue carbon sinks (that held by marine organisms) are shrinking, which is important as these are hotspots of genuine carbon sequestration. Polar blue carbon increases with losses of marine ice over high latitude continental shelf areas. Marine ice (sea ice, ice shelf and glacier retreat) losses generate a valuable negative feedback on climate change. Blue carbon change with sea ice and ice shelf losses has been estimated, but not how blue carbon responds to glacier retreat along fjords. We derive a testable estimate of glacier retreat driven blue carbon gains by investigating three fjords in the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP). We started by multiplying ~40 year mean glacier retreat rates by the number of retreating WAP fjords and their time of exposure. We multiplied this area by regional zoobenthic carbon means from existing datasets to suggest that WAP fjords generate 3,130 tonnes of new zoobenthic carbon per year (t zC/year) and sequester >780 t zC/year. We tested this by capture and analysis of 204 high resolution seabed images along emerging WAP fjords. Biota within these images were identified to density per 13 functional groups. Mean stored carbon per individual was assigned from literature values to give a stored zoobenthic Carbon per area, which was multiplied up by area of fjord exposed over time, which increased the estimate to 4,536 t zC/year. The purpose of this study was to establish a testable estimate of blue carbon change caused by glacier retreat along Antarctic fjords and thus to establish its relative importance compared to polar and other carbon sinks.

Legacy and Emerging Persistent Organic Pollutants in Antarctic Benthic Invertebrates near Rothera Point, Western Antarctic Peninsula

Pollutant levels in polar regions are gaining progressively more attention from the scientific community. This is especially so for pollutants that persist in the environment and can reach polar latitudes via a wide range of routes, such as some persistent organic pollutants (POPs). In this study, samples of Antarctic marine benthic organisms were analyzed for legacy and emerging POPs (polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), and organochlorine pesticides) to comprehensively assess their current POP concentrations and infer the potential sources of the pollutants. Specimens of five benthic invertebrate species were collected at two distinct locations near Rothera research station on the Antarctic Peninsula (67°35'8 ̋ S and 68°7'59 ̋ W). Any impact of the nearby Rothera station as a local source of pollution appeared to be negligible. The most abundant chemicals detected were hexachlorobenzene (HCB) and BDE-209. The highest concentrations detected were in limpets and sea urchins, followed by sea stars, ascidians, and sea cucumbers. The relative congener patterns of PCBs and PBDEs were similar in all of the species. Some chemicals (e.g., heptachlor, oxychlordane, and mirex) were detected in the Antarctic invertebrates for the first time. Statistical analyses revealed that the distribution of the POPs was not only driven by the feeding traits of the species but also by the physicochemical properties of the specific compounds.

Biomineralization plasticity and environmental heterogeneity predict geographical resilience patterns of foundation species to future change

Although geographical patterns of species' sensitivity to environmental changes are defined by interacting multiple stressors, little is known about compensatory processes shaping regional differences in organismal vulnerability. Here, we examine large-scale spatial variations in biomineralization under heterogeneous environmental gradients of temperature, salinity and food availability across a 30° latitudinal range (3,334 km), to test whether plasticity in calcareous shell production and composition, from juveniles to large adults, mediates geographical patterns of resilience to climate change in critical foundation species, the mussels Mytilus edulis and M. trossulus. We find shell calcification decreased towards high latitude, with mussels producing thinner shells with a higher organic content in polar than temperate regions. Salinity was the best predictor of within-region differences in mussel shell deposition, mineral and organic composition. In polar, subpolar, and Baltic low-salinity environments, mussels produced thin shells with a thicker external organic layer (periostracum), and an increased proportion of calcite (prismatic layer, as opposed to aragonite) and organic matrix, providing potentially higher resistance against dissolution in more corrosive waters. Conversely, in temperate, higher salinity regimes, thicker, more calcified shells with a higher aragonite (nacreous layer) proportion were deposited, which suggests enhanced protection under increased predation pressure. Interacting effects of salinity and food availability on mussel shell composition predict the deposition of a thicker periostracum and organic-enriched prismatic layer under forecasted future environmental conditions, suggesting a capacity for increased protection of high-latitude populations from ocean acidification. These findings support biomineralization plasticity as a potentially advantageous compensatory mechanism conferring Mytilus species a protective capacity for quantitative and qualitative trade-offs in shell deposition as a response to regional alterations of abiotic and biotic conditions in future environments. Our work illustrates that compensatory mechanisms, driving plastic responses to the spatial structure of multiple stressors, can define geographical patterns of unanticipated species resilience to global environmental change.

Antarctic environmental change and biological responses

Antarctica and the surrounding Southern Ocean are facing complex environmental change. Their native biota has adapted to the region's extreme conditions over many millions of years. This unique biota is now challenged by environmental change and the direct impacts of human activity. The terrestrial biota is characterized by considerable physiological and ecological flexibility and is expected to show increases in productivity, population sizes and ranges of individual species, and community complexity. However, the establishment of non-native organisms in both terrestrial and marine ecosystems may present an even greater threat than climate change itself. In the marine environment, much more limited response flexibility means that even small levels of warming are threatening. Changing sea ice has large impacts on ecosystem processes, while ocean acidification and coastal freshening are expected to have major impacts.

Impact of warming on biofouling communities in the northern Persian Gulf

While the impact of ocean warming on single species is well described, the impact on marine biofouling communities is not well understood. Effluents of power plants have higher temperatures and can be used as natural large-scale test sites to investigate warming effects on marine ecosystems. In the present study, we evaluated the impact of elevated temperatures in the vicinity of a power plant on macro-biofouling communities in the northern coast of the Persian Gulf. The impact site was on average 2 °C warmer than the control site. Our results demonstrate a significantly different structure and composition of biofouling communities between control and impact sites. Warming led to a 1.5-fold increase in the mean coverage of biofouling communities and slightly decreased functional and species richness. Our results indicated that future warming will likely increase biofouling pressure, while decreasing diversity of communities, particularly in habitats where organisms exist at their upper tolerance limits of temperature.

Lack of long-term acclimation in Antarctic encrusting species suggests vulnerability to warming

Marine encrusting communities play vital roles in benthic ecosystems and have major economic implications with regards to biofouling. However, their ability to persist under projected warming scenarios remains poorly understood and is difficult to study under realistic conditions. Here, using heated settlement panel technologies, we show that after 18 months Antarctic encrusting communities do not acclimate to either +1 °C or +2 °C above ambient temperatures. There is significant up-regulation of the cellular stress response in warmed animals, their upper lethal temperatures decline with increasing ambient temperature and population genetic analyses show little evidence of differential survival of genotypes with treatment. By contrast, biofilm bacterial communities show no significant differences in community structure with temperature. Thus, metazoan and bacterial responses differ dramatically, suggesting that ecosystem responses to future climate change are likely to be far more complex than previously anticipated.

Genetic adaptation and physiological acclimation can potentially buffer species against climate change. Here, the authors perform a long-term warming experiment of Antarctic encrusting communities and show that focal animal species failed to acclimate and lacked genetic variation in tolerance to warming.

Antarctica: The final frontier for marine biological invasions

Antarctica is experiencing significant ecological and environmental change, which may facilitate the establishment of non-native marine species. Non-native marine species will interact with other anthropogenic stressors affecting Antarctic ecosystems, such as climate change (warming, ocean acidification) and pollution, with irreversible ramifications for biodiversity and ecosystem services. We review current knowledge of non-native marine species in the Antarctic region, the physical and physiological factors that resist establishment of non-native marine species, changes to resistance under climate change, the role of legislation in limiting marine introductions, and the effect of increasing human activity on vectors and pathways of introduction. Evidence of non-native marine species is limited: just four marine non-native and one cryptogenic species that were likely introduced anthropogenically have been reported freely living in Antarctic or sub-Antarctic waters, but no established populations have been reported; an additional six species have been observed in pathways to Antarctica that are potentially at risk of becoming invasive. We present estimates of the intensity of ship activity across fishing, tourism and research sectors: there may be approximately 180 vessels and 500+ voyages in Antarctic waters annually. However, these estimates are necessarily speculative because relevant data are scarce. To facilitate well-informed policy and management, we make recommendations for future research into the likelihood of marine biological invasions in the Antarctic region.

Icebergs, sea ice, blue carbon and Antarctic climate feedbacks

Sea ice, including icebergs, has a complex relationship with the carbon held within animals (blue carbon) in the polar regions. Sea-ice losses around West Antarctica's continental shelf generate longer phytoplankton blooms but also make it a hotspot for coastal iceberg disturbance. This matters because in polar regions ice scour limits blue carbon storage ecosystem services, which work as a powerful negative feedback on climate change (less sea ice increases phytoplankton blooms, benthic growth, seabed carbon and sequestration). This resets benthic biota succession (maintaining regional biodiversity) and also fertilizes the ocean with nutrients, generating phytoplankton blooms, which cascade carbon capture into seabed storage and burial by benthos. Small icebergs scour coastal shallows, whereas giant icebergs ground deeper, offshore. Significant benthic communities establish where ice shelves have disintegrated (giant icebergs calving), and rapidly grow to accumulate blue carbon storage. When 5000 km² giant icebergs calve, we estimate that they generate approximately 10⁶ tonnes of immobilized zoobenthic carbon per year (t C yr^-1). However, their collisions with the seabed crush and recycle vast benthic communities, costing an estimated 4 × 10⁴ t C yr^-1 We calculate that giant iceberg formation (ice shelf disintegration) has a net potential of approximately 10⁶ t C yr^-1 sequestration benefits as well as more widely known negative impacts.This article is part of the theme issue 'The marine system of the West Antarctic Peninsula: status and strategy for progress in a region of rapid change'.

The importance of local settings: within-year variability in seawater temperature at South Bay, Western Antarctic Peninsula

The Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) has undergone significant changes in air and seawater temperatures during the last 50 years. Although highly stenotherm Antarctic organisms are expected to be severely affected by the increase of seawater temperature, high-resolution datasets of seawater temperature within coastal areas of the WAP (where diverse marine communities have been reported) are not commonly available. Here we report on within-year (2016–2017) variation in seawater temperature at three sites on Doumer Island, Palmer Archipelago, WAP. Within a year, Antarctic organisms in South Bay were exposed to water temperatures in excess of 2 °C for more than 25 days and 2.5 °C for more than 10 days. We recorded a temperature range between −1.7° to 3.0 °C. Warming of seawater temperature was 3.75 times faster after October 2016 than it was before October. Results from this study indicate that organisms at South Bay are already exposed to temperatures that are being used in experimental studies to evaluate physiological responses to thermal stress in WAP organisms. Continuous measurements of short to long-term variability in seawater temperature provides important information for parametrizing meaningful experimental treatments that aim to assess the local effects of environmental variation on Antarctic organisms under future climate scenarios.

The effects of thermal acclimation on cardio-respiratory performance in an Antarctic fish (Notothenia coriiceps)

The Southern Ocean has experienced stable, cold temperatures for over 10 million years, yet particular regions are currently undergoing rapid warming. To investigate the impacts of warming on cardiovascular oxygen transport, we compared the cardio-respiratory performance in an Antarctic notothenioid (Notothenia coriiceps) that was maintained at 0 or 5°C for 6.0-9.5 weeks. When compared at the fish's respective acclimation temperature, the oxygen consumption rate and cardiac output were significantly higher in 5°C-acclimated than 0°C-acclimated fish. The 2.7-fold elevation in cardiac output in 5°C-acclimated fish (17.4 vs. 6.5 ml min^-1 kg^-1) was predominantly due to a doubling of stroke volume, likely in response to increased cardiac preload, as measured by higher central venous pressure (0.15 vs. 0.08 kPa); tachycardia was minor (29.5 vs. 25.2 beats min^-1). When fish were acutely warmed, oxygen consumption rate increased by similar amounts in 0°C- and 5°C-acclimated fish at equivalent test temperatures. In both acclimation groups, the increases in oxygen consumption rate during acute heating were supported by increased cardiac output achieved by elevating heart rate, while stroke volume changed relatively little. Cardiac output was similar between both acclimation groups until 12°C when cardiac output became significantly higher in 5°C-acclimated fish, driven largely by their higher stroke volume. Although cardiac arrhythmias developed at a similar temperature (~14.5°C) in both acclimation groups, the hearts of 5°C-acclimated fish continued to pump until significantly higher temperatures (CT_max for cardiac function 17.7 vs. 15.0°C for 0°C-acclimated fish). These results demonstrate that N. coriiceps is capable of increasing routine cardiac output during both acute and chronic warming, although the mechanisms are different (heart rate-dependent versus primarily stroke volume-dependent regulation, respectively). Cardiac performance was enhanced at higher temperatures following 5°C acclimation, suggesting cardiovascular function may not constrain the capacity of N. coriiceps to withstand a warming climate.

Response to van der Meer

In our recent Current Biology paper [1], we describe an ocean warming experiment in which we manipulated the temperature of panels set on the seafloor to provide a realistic and relevant indication of how benthic communities may change under future ocean warming. We describe increases in growth associated with warming by 1°C, with growth rates up to doubled in some species. The definition of Q₁₀ is a measure of the temperature sensitivity of an enzymatic reaction rate or a physiological process due to an increase by 10°C; doubling of growth rates with a 1°C change gives Q₁₀s around 1,000. In his correspondence, Jaap van der Meer [2] questions our methods and provides alternative analyses which lead him to conclude that our observed increases in growth rate were in fact much lower and in accordance with previous studies from temperate zones. We provide justification for our use of absolute growth rate, justification for not using instantaneous growth rate (or a measure of growth in proportion to previous growth) and encourage the on-going discussion of how to measure and compare growth rates.

Are the Q10values of more than 1,000 reported for Antarctic seabed fauna realistic?

In a recent paper in Current Biology, Ashton et al.[1] describe the results of what they call the first ever experiment in which benthic assemblages are warmed to ecologically relevant levels in situ. West of the Antarctic peninsula, the authors employed heated settlement panels and studied the settlement and growth of pioneering species over a 5-month period at ambient temperature and at 1°C and 2°C above ambient. Such ocean temperature increases are expected within the next 50-100 years. They claim that the two most dominant species doubled their growth rate already at an increase of 1°C. They further state that this implies Q₁₀ coefficients around 1,000, which is much higher than anticipated. This unpredicted result should, according to the authors, critically change our thinking of how polar communities might respond to ocean warming. Indeed, such extreme Q₁₀ coefficients are a surprising result, and not in accordance with more than a century of laboratory or field research in temperate zones. Here, I will show that the claim is unsubstantiated and that the observed in situ growth-rate response to temperature of these Antarctic species is much weaker than claimed, and not very different from previous work in the temperate zone.