A New Perspective on Ecological Prediction Reveals Limits to Climate Adaptation in a Temperate Tree Species

A multidimensional selective landscape drives adaptive divergence between and within closely related Phlox species

Selection causes local adaptation across populations within species and simultaneously divergence between species. However, it is unclear if either the force of or the response to selection is similar across these scales. We show that natural selection drives divergence between closely related species in a pattern that is distinct from local adaptation within species. We use reciprocal transplant experiments across three species of Phlox wildflowers to characterize widespread adaptive divergence. Using provenance trials, we also find strong local adaptation between populations within a species. Comparing divergence and selection between these two scales of diversity we discover that one suite of traits predicts fitness differences between species and that an independent suite of traits predicts fitness variation within species. Selection drives divergence between species, contributing to speciation, while simultaneously favoring extensive diversity that is maintained across populations within a species. Our work demonstrates how the selection landscape is complex and multidimensional.

The drivers of intraspecific trait variation and their implications for future tree productivity and survival

Forests are facing unprecedented levels of stress from pest and disease outbreaks, disturbance, fragmentation, development, and a changing climate. These selective agents act to alter forest composition from regional to cellular levels. Thus, a central challenge for understanding how forests will be impacted by future change is how to integrate across scales of biology. Phenotype, or an observable trait, is the product of an individual's genes (G) and the environment in which an organism lives (E). To date, researchers have detailed how environment drives variation in tree phenotypes over long time periods (e.g., long-term ecological research sites [LTERs]) and across large spatial scales (e.g., flux network). In parallel, researchers have discovered the genes and pathways that govern phenotypes, finding high degrees of genetic control and signatures of local adaptation in many plant traits. However, the research in these two areas remain largely independent of each other, hindering our ability to generate accurate predictions of plant response to environment, an increasingly urgent need given threats to forest systems. I present the importance of both genes and environment in determining tree responses to climate stress. I highlight why the difference between G versus E in driving variation is critical for our understanding of climate responses, then propose means of accelerating research that examines G and E simultaneously by leveraging existing long-term, large-scale phenotypic data sets from ecological networks and adding newly affordable sequence (-omics) data to both drill down to find the genes and alleles influencing phenotypes and scale up to find how patterns of demography and local adaptation may influence future response to change.

A neutral theory of plant carbon allocation

How plants use the carbon they gain from photosynthesis remains a key area of study among plant ecologists. Although numerous theories have been presented throughout the years, the field lacks a clear null model. To fill this gap, I have developed the first null model, or neutral theory, of plant carbon allocation using probability theory, plant biochemistry and graph theory at the level of a leaf. Neutral theories have been used to establish a null hypothesis in molecular evolution and community assembly to describe how much of an ecological phenomenon can be described by chance alone. Here, the aim of a neutral theory of plant carbon allocation is to ask: how is carbon partitioned between sinks if one assumes plants do not prioritize certain sinks over others? Using the biochemical network of plant carbon metabolism, I show that, if allocation was strictly random, carbon is more likely to be allocated to storage, defense, respiration and finally growth. This 'neutral hierarchy' suggests that a sink's biochemical distance from photosynthesis plays an important role in carbon allocation patterns, highlighting the potentially adaptive role of this biochemical network for plant survival in variable environments. A brief simulation underscores that our ability to measure the carbon allocation from photosynthesis to a given sink is unreliable due to simple probabilistic rules. While neutral theory may not explain all patterns of carbon allocation, its utility is in the minimal assumptions and role as a null model against which future data should be tested.

Nonstructural carbohydrate dynamics' relationship to leaf development under varying environments

Leaf-out in temperate forests is a critical transition point each spring and advancing with global change. The mechanism linking phenological variation to external cues is poorly understood. Nonstructural carbohydrate (NSC) availability may be key. Here, we use branch cuttings from northern red oak (Quercus rubra) and measure NSCs throughout bud development in branch tissue. Given genes and environment influence phenology, we placed branches in an arrayed factorial experiment (three temperatures × two photoperiods, eight genotypes) to examine their impact on variation in leaf-out timing and corresponding NSCs. Despite significant differences in leaf-out timing between treatments, NSC patterns were much more consistent, with all treatments and genotypes displaying similar NSC concentrations across phenophases. Notably, the moderate and hot temperature treatments reached the same NSC concentrations and phenophases at the same growing degree days (GDD), but 20 calendar days apart, while the cold treatment achieved only half the GDD of the other two. Our results suggest that NSCs are coordinated with leaf-out and could act as a molecular clock, signaling to cells the passage of time and triggering leaf development to begin. This link between NSCs and budburst is critical for improving predictions of phenological timing.

Global variation in nonstructural carbohydrate stores in response to climate

Woody plant species store nonstructural carbohydrates (NSCs) for many functions. While known to buffer against fluctuations in photosynthetic supply, such as at night, NSC stores are also thought to buffer against environmental extremes, such as drought or freezing temperatures by serving as either back-up energy reserves or osmolytes. However, a clear picture of how NSCs are shaped by climate is still lacking. Here, we update and leverage a unique global database of seasonal NSC storage measurements to examine whether maximum total NSC stores and the amount of soluble sugars are associated with clinal patterns in low temperatures or aridity, indicating they may confer a benefit under freezing or drought conditions. We examine patterns using the average climate at each study site and the unique climatic conditions at the time and place in which the sample was taken. Altogether, our results support the idea that NSC stores act as critical osmolytes. Soluble Sugars increase with both colder and drier conditions in aboveground tissues, indicating they can plastically increase a plants' tolerance of cold or arid conditions. However, maximum total NSCs increased, rather than decreased, with average site temperature and had no relationship to average site aridity. This result suggests that the total amount of NSC a plant stores may be more strongly determined by its capacity to assimilate carbon than by environmental stress. Thus, NSCs are unlikely to serve as reservoir of energy. This study is the most comprehensive synthesis to date of global NSC variation in relation to climate and supports the idea that NSC stores likely serve as buffers against environmental stress. By clarifying their role in cold and drought tolerance, we improve our ability to predict plant response to environment.

Amplifying effects of recurrent drought on the dynamics of tree growth and water use in a subalpine forest

Despite recent advances in our understanding of drought impacts on tree functioning, we lack knowledge about the dynamic responses of mature trees to recurrent drought stress. At a subalpine forest site, we assessed the effects of three years of recurrent experimental summer drought on tree growth and water relations of Larix decidua Mill. and Picea abies (L. Karst.), two common European conifers representative for contrasting water-use strategies. We combined dendrometer and xylem sap flow measurements with analyses of xylem anatomy and non-structural carbohydrates and their carbon-isotope composition. Recurrent drought increased the effects of soil moisture limitation on growth and xylogenesis, and to a lesser extent on xylem sap flow. P. abies showed stronger growth responses to recurrent drought, reduced starch concentrations in branches and increased water-use efficiency when compared to L. decidua. Despite comparatively larger maximum tree water deficits than in P. abies, xylem formation of L. decidua was less affected by drought, suggesting a stronger capacity of rehydration or lower cambial turgor thresholds for growth. Our study shows that recurrent drought progressively increases impacts on mature trees of both species, which suggests that in a future climate increasing drought frequency could impose strong legacies on carbon and water dynamics of treeline species.

Plant carbohydrate storage: intra- and inter-specific trade-offs reveal a major life history trait

Trade-offs among carbon sinks constrain how trees physiologically, ecologically, and evolutionarily respond to their environments. These trade-offs typically fall along a productive growth to conservative, bet-hedging continuum. How nonstructural carbohydrates (NSCs) stored in living tree cells (known as carbon stores) fit in this trade-off framework is not well understood. We examined relationships between growth and storage using both within species genetic variation from a common garden, and across species phenotypic variation from a global database. We demonstrate that storage is actively accumulated, as part of a conservative, bet-hedging life history strategy. Storage accumulates at the expense of growth both within and across species. Within the species Populus trichocarpa, genetic trade-offs show that for each additional unit of wood area growth (in cm²  yr^-1 ) that genotypes invest in, they lose 1.2 to 1.7 units (mg g^-1 NSC) of storage. Across species, for each additional unit of area growth (in cm²  yr^-1 ), trees, on average, reduce their storage by 9.5% in stems and 10.4% in roots. Our findings impact our understanding of basic plant biology, fit storage into a widely used growth-survival trade-off spectrum describing life history strategy, and challenges the assumptions of passive storage made in ecosystem models today.

Aspen growth is not limited by starch reserves

All photosynthetic organisms balance CO₂ assimilation with growth and carbon storage. Stored carbon is used for growth at night and when demand exceeds assimilation. Gaining a mechanistic understanding of carbon partitioning between storage and growth in trees is important for biological studies and for estimating the potential of terrestrial photosynthesis to sequester anthropogenic CO₂ emissions.^1,2 Starch represents the main carbon storage in plants.^3,4 To examine the carbon storage mechanism and role of starch during tree growth, we generated and characterized low-starch hybrid aspen (Populus tremula × tremuloides) trees using CRISPR-Cas9-mediated gene editing of two PHOSPHOGLUCOMUTASE (PGM) genes coding for plastidial PGM isoforms essential for starch biosynthesis. We demonstrate that starch deficiency does not reduce tree growth even in short days, showing that starch is not a critical carbon reserve during diel growth of aspen. The low-starch trees assimilated up to ∼30% less CO₂ compared to the wild type under a range of irradiance levels, but this did not reduce growth or wood density. This implies that aspen growth is not limited by carbon assimilation under benign growth conditions. Moreover, the timing of bud set and bud flush in the low-starch trees was not altered, implying that starch reserves are not critical for the seasonal growth-dormancy cycle. The findings are consistent with a passive starch storage mechanism that contrasts with the annual Arabidopsis and indicate that the capacity of the aspen to absorb CO₂ is limited by the rate of sink tissue growth.

Phenotypic Plasticity and Local Adaptation of Leaf Cuticular Waxes Favor Perennial Alpine Herbs under Climate Change

Six perennial herbs (Plantago asiatica, Polygonum viviparum, Anaphalis lactea, Kobresia humilis, Leontopodium nanum and Potentilla chinensis) widely distributed in alpine meadows were reciprocally transplanted at two sites in eastern edge of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, Hongyuan (3434 m, 2.97 °C, 911 mm) and Qilian (3701 m, 2.52 °C, 472 mm), aiming to evaluate the responses of alpine plants to changing environments. When plants were transplanted from Hongyuan to Qilian, most plant species showed a decrease of total wax coverage in first year and reverse trend was observed for some plant species in second year. However, when plants were transplanted from Qilian to Hongyuan, the response of total wax coverage differed greatly between plant species. When compared with those in first year, plasticity index of average chain length of alkane decreased whereas carbon preference index of alkane increased at both Hongyuan and Qilian in second year. The total wax coverage differed between local and transplanted plants, suggesting both environmental and genetic factors controlled the wax depositions. Structural equation modeling indicated that co-variations existed between leaf cuticular waxes and leaf functional traits. These results suggest that alpine herbs adjust both wax depositions and chain length distributions to adapt to changing environment, showing climate adaptations.

Large seasonal fluctuations in whole-tree carbohydrate reserves: is storage more dynamic in boreal ecosystems?

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Carbon reserves are a critical source of energy and substrates that allow trees to cope with periods of minimal carbon gain and/or high carbon demands, conditions which are prevalent in high-latitude forests. However, we have a poor understanding of carbon reserve dynamics at the whole-tree level in mature boreal trees. We therefore sought to quantify the seasonal changes in whole-tree and organ-level carbon reserve pools in mature boreal Betula papyrifera.

METHODS

Non-structural carbohydrate (NSC; soluble sugars and starch) tissue concentrations were measured at key phenological stages throughout a calendar year in the roots, stem (inner bark and xylem), branches and leaves, and scaled up to estimate changes in organ and whole-tree NSC pool sizes. Fine root and stem growth were also measured to compare the timing of growth processes with changes in NSC pools.

KEY RESULTS

The whole-tree NSC pool increased from its spring minimum to its maximum at bud set, producing an average seasonal fluctuation of 0.96 kg per tree. This fluctuation represents a 72 % change in the whole-tree NSC pool, which greatly exceeds the relative change reported for more temperate conspecifics. At the organ level, branches accounted for roughly 48-60 % of the whole-tree NSC pool throughout the year, and their seasonal fluctuation was four to eight times greater than that observed in the stemwood, coarse roots and inner bark.

CONCLUSIONS

Branches in boreal B. papyrifera were the largest and most dynamic storage pool, suggesting that storage changes at the branch level largely drive whole-tree storage dynamics in these trees. The greater whole-tree seasonal NSC fluctuation in boreal vs. temperate B. papyrifera may result from (1) higher soluble sugar concentration requirements in branches for frost protection, and/or (2) a larger reliance on reserves to fuel new leaf and shoot growth in the spring.

Population Genetic Diversity and Structure of an Endangered Salicaceae Species in Northeast China: Chosenia arbutifolia (Pall.) A. Skv

Chosenia arbutifolia (Pall.) A. Skv. is a unique and endangered species belonging to the Salicaceae family. It has great potential for ornamental and industrial use. However, human interference has led to a decrease in and fragmentation of its natural populations in the past two decades. To effectively evaluate, utilize, and conserve available resources, the genetic diversity and population structure of C. arbutifolia were analyzed in this study. A total of 142 individuals from ten provenances were sampled and sequenced. Moderate diversity was detected among these, with a mean expected heterozygosity and Shannon’s Wiener index of 0.3505 and 0.5258, respectively. The inbreeding coefficient was negative, indicating a significant excess of heterozygotes. The fixation index varied from 0.0068 to 0.3063, showing a varied genetic differentiation between populations. Analysis of molecular variance demonstrated that differentiation accounted for 82.23% of the total variation among individuals, while the remaining 17.77% variation was between populations. Furthermore, the results of population structure analysis indicated that the 142 individuals originated from three primitive groups. To provide genetic information and help design conservation and management strategies, landscape genomics analysis was performed by investigating loci associated with environmental variables. Eighteen SNP markers were associated with altitude and annual average temperature, of which five were ascribed with specific functions. In conclusion, the current study furthers the understanding of C. arbutifolia genetic architecture and provides insights for germplasm protection.

Adaptive variation and plasticity in non-structural carbohydrate storage in a temperate tree species

Trees' total amount of non-structural carbohydrate (NSC) stores and the proportion of these stores residing as insoluble starch are vital traits for individuals living in variable environments. However, our understanding of how stores vary in response to environmental stress is poorly understood as the genetic component of storage is rarely accounted for in studies. Here, we quantified variation in NSC traits in branch samples taken from over 600 clonally transplanted black cottonwood (Populus trichocarpa) trees grown in two common gardens. We found heritable variation in both total NSC stores and the proportion of stores in starch (H²_TNC  = 0.19, H²_PropStarch  = 0.31), indicating a substantial genetic component of variation. In addition, we found high amounts of plasticity in both traits in response to cold temperatures and significant genotype-by-environment (GxE) interactions in the total amount of NSC stored (54% of P is GxE). This finding of high GxE indicates extensive variation across trees in their response to environment, which may explain why previous studies of carbohydrate stores' responses to stress have failed to converge on a consistent pattern. Overall, we found high amounts of environmental and genetic variation in NSC storage concentrations, which may bolster species against future climate change.

Xeric Tree Populations Exhibit Delayed Summer Depletion of Root Starch Relative to Mesic Counterparts

Research linking soil moisture availability to nonstructural carbohydrate (NSC) storage suggests greater NSC reserves promote survival under acute water stress, but little is known about how NSC allocation responds to long-term differences in water availabilty. We hypothesized populations experiencing chronic or frequent water stress shift carbon allocation to build greater NSC reserves for increased survival probability during drought relative to populations rarely experiencing water stress. Over a year, we measured soluble sugar and starch concentrations from branches, stems, and coarse roots of mature Pinus palustris trees at two sites differing in long-term soil moisture availability. Xeric and mesic populations exhibited a cycle of summer depletion-winter accumulation in root starch. Xeric populations reached a maximum root starch concentration approximately 1–2 months later than mesic populations, indicating delayed summer depletion. Xeric and mesic populations reached the same minimum root starch at similar times, suggesting extended winter accumulation for xeric populations. These results suggest seasonal mobilization from root starch is compressed into a shorter interval for xeric populations instead of consistently greater reserves as hypothesized. Seasonal trends differed little between xeric and mesic populations for starch and sugars, suggesting the importance of roots in seasonal carbon dynamics and the primacy of starch for storage. If roots are the primary organ for longterm storage, then our results suggest that whole-plant mobilization and allocation respond to chronic differences in water availability.

Protocol for Projecting Allele Frequency Change under Future Climate Change at Adaptive-Associated Loci

We describe how to predict population-level allele frequency change at loci associated with locally adapted traits under future climate conditions. Our method can identify populations that are at higher risk of local extinction and those that might be prime targets for conservation intervention. We draw on previously developed community ecology statistical methods and apply them in novel ways to plant genomes. While a powerful diagnostic tool, our method requires a wealth of genomic data for use.

For complete details on the use and execution of this protocol, please refer to Blumstein et al. (2020).

A method for projecting adaptive allele frequency shifts under climate change

Can be used to identify vulnerable populations and help choose conservation targets

However, the method has large genomic and climate data requirements