Long term outcome of acute pancreatitis in Italy: results of a multicentre study

Incidence of recurrent and chronic pancreatitis after acute pancreatitis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Acute pancreatitis (AP) has a high incidence, and patients can develop recurrent acute pancreatitis (RAP) and chronic pancreatitis (CP) after AP.

Objectives

We aimed to estimate the pooled incidence rates (IRs), cumulative incidences, and proportions of RAP and CP after AP.

Design

A systematic review and meta-analysis of studies reporting the proportion of RAP and CP after AP.

Data sources and methods

The systematic search was conducted in three (PubMed, EMBASE, and CENTRAL) databases on 19 December 2023. Articles reporting the proportion of RAP or CP in patients after the first and multiple episodes of AP were eligible. The random effects model was used to calculate the pooled IR with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The I 2 value assessed heterogeneity. The risk of bias assessment was conducted with the Joanna Briggs Institute Critical Appraisal Tool.

Results

We included 119 articles in the quantitative synthesis and 29 in the IRs calculations. Our results showed that the IR of RAP in adult patients after AP was 5.26 per 100 person-years (CI: 3.99-6.94; I 2 = 93%), while in children, it was 4.64 per 100 person-years (CI: 2.73-7.87; I 2 = 88%). We also found that the IR of CP after AP was 1.4 per 100 person-years (CI: 0.9-2; I 2 = 75%), while after RAP, it increased to 4.3 per 100 person-years (CI: 3.1-6.0; I 2 = 76%). The risk of bias was moderate in the majority of the included studies.

Conclusion

Our results showed that RAP affects many patients with AP. Compared to patients with the first AP episode, RAP leads to a threefold higher IR for developing CP.

Trial registration

Our protocol was registered on PROSPERO (CRD42021283252).

Long-term follow-up study of necrotising pancreatitis: interventions, complications and quality of life

OBJECTIVE

To describe the long-term consequences of necrotising pancreatitis, including complications, the need for interventions and the quality of life.

DESIGN

Long-term follow-up of a prospective multicentre cohort of 373 necrotising pancreatitis patients (2005-2008) was performed. Patients were prospectively evaluated and received questionnaires. Readmissions (ie, for recurrent or chronic pancreatitis), interventions, pancreatic insufficiency and quality of life were compared between initial treatment groups: conservative, endoscopic/percutaneous drainage alone and necrosectomy. Associations of patient and disease characteristics during index admission with outcomes during follow-up were assessed.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 13.5 years (range 12-15.5 years), 97/373 patients (26%) were readmitted for recurrent pancreatitis. Endoscopic or percutaneous drainage was performed in 47/373 patients (13%), of whom 21/47 patients (45%) were initially treated conservatively. Pancreatic necrosectomy or pancreatic surgery was performed in 31/373 patients (8%), without differences between treatment groups. Endocrine insufficiency (126/373 patients; 34%) and exocrine insufficiency (90/373 patients; 38%), developed less often following conservative treatment (p<0.001 and p=0.016, respectively). Quality of life scores did not differ between groups. Pancreatic gland necrosis >50% during initial admission was associated with percutaneous/endoscopic drainage (OR 4.3 (95% CI 1.5 to 12.2)), pancreatic surgery (OR 3.2 (95% CI 1.1 to 9.5) and development of endocrine insufficiency (OR13.1 (95% CI 5.3 to 32.0) and exocrine insufficiency (OR6.1 (95% CI 2.4 to 15.5) during follow-up.

CONCLUSION

Acute necrotising pancreatitis carries a substantial disease burden during long-term follow-up in terms of recurrent disease, the necessity for interventions and development of pancreatic insufficiency, even when treated conservatively during the index admission. Extensive (>50%) pancreatic parenchymal necrosis seems to be an important predictor of interventions and complications during follow-up.

Risk factors for diabetes mellitus after acute pancreatitis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Introduction

Within 5 years of having acute pancreatitis (AP), approximately 20% of patients develop diabetes mellitus (DM), which later increases to approximately 40%. Some studies suggest that the prevalence of prediabetes (PD) and/or DM can grow as high as 59% over time. However, information on risk factors is limited. We aimed to identify risk factors for developing PD or DM following AP.

Methods

We systematically searched three databases up to 4 September 2023 extracting direct, within-study comparisons of risk factors on the rate of new-onset PD and DM in AP patients. When PD and DM event rates could not be separated, we reported results for this composite outcome as PD/DM. Meta-analysis was performed using the random-effects model to calculate pooled odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI).

Results

Of the 61 studies identified, 50 were included in the meta-analysis, covering 76,797 participants. The studies reported on 79 risk factors, and meta-analysis was feasible for 34 risk factor and outcome pairs. The odds of developing PD/DM was significantly higher after severe and moderately severe AP (OR: 4.32; CI: 1.76-10.60) than mild AP. Hypertriglyceridemic AP etiology (OR: 3.27; CI: 0.17-63.91) and pancreatic necrosis (OR: 5.53; CI: 1.59-19.21) were associated with a higher risk of developing PD/DM. Alcoholic AP etiology (OR: 1.82; CI: 1.09-3.04), organ failure (OR: 3.19; CI: 0.55-18.64), recurrent AP (OR: 1.89; CI: 0.95-3.77), obesity (OR: 1.85; CI: 1.43-2.38), chronic kidney disease (OR: 2.10; CI: 1.85-2.38), liver cirrhosis (OR: 2.48; CI: 0.18-34.25), and dyslipidemia (OR: 1.82; CI: 0.68-4.84) were associated with a higher risk of developing DM.

Discussion

Severe and moderately severe AP, alcoholic and hypertriglyceridemic etiologies, pancreatic necrosis, organ failure, recurrent acute pancreatitis and comorbidities of obesity, chronic kidney disease liver disease, and dyslipidemia are associated with a higher risk of developing PD or DM.

Systematic review registration

https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/, identifier CRD42021281983.

Recurrence rates and risk factors for recurrence after first episode of acute pancreatitis: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

There are a certain number of acute pancreatitis (AP) patients who may suffer from multiple episodes and develop recurrent acute pancreatitis (RAP), but recurrence rates and associated risk factors for RAP vary significantly in the published literature.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, and Embase databases to identify all publications reporting AP recurrence until October 20th, 2022. Meta-analysis and meta-regression were performed to calculate the pooled estimates using the random-effects model.

RESULTS

A total of 36 studies met the inclusion criteria and all were used in pooled analyses. The overall rate of recurrence after first-time AP was 21% (95% CI, 18%- 24%), and pooled rates in biliary, alcoholic, idiopathic, and hypertriglyceridemia etiology patients were 12%, 30%, 25%, and 30%, respectively. After managing underlying causes post-discharge, the recurrence rate decreased (14% versus 4% for biliary, 30% versus 6% for alcoholic, and 30% versus 22% for hypertriglyceridemia AP). An increased risk of recurrence was reported in patients with a smoking history (odds ratio [OR] = 1.99), alcoholic etiology (OR = 1.72), male sex (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.63), and local complications (HR = 3.40), while biliary etiology was associated with lower recurrence rates (OR = 0.38).

CONCLUSION

More than one-fifth of AP patients experienced recurrence after discharge, with the highest recurrence rate in alcoholic and hypertriglyceridemia etiologies, and managing underlying causes post-discharge was related to decreased incidence. In addition, smoking history, alcoholic etiology, male gender, and presence of local complications were independent risks for the recurrence.

Emerging Clinical Features of COVID-19 Related Pancreatitis: Case Reports and Review of the Literature

INTRODUCTION

SARS-CoV-2 is fundamentally a respiratory pathogen with a wide spectrum of symptoms. The COVID-19 related pancreatitis is less considered than other clinical features. The purpose is to describe two cases of pancreatitis associated with COVID-19.

METHODOLOGY

Patients' demographics, clinical features, laboratory, and instrumental findings were collected.

RESULTS

Two patients admitted to the hospital were diagnosed with COVID-19 and severe acute pancreatitis, according to the Atlanta criteria. Other causes of acute pancreatitis were excluded. Treatment included broad-spectrum antibiotics, proton pump inhibitors, and low molecular weight heparin. Steroids, oxygen, antifungal treatment, and pain killers were administered when appropriate. Both patients were asymptomatic, with normal vital parameters and blood exams, and were discharged in a good condition.

CONCLUSION

It is recommendable to include lipase and amylase on laboratory routine tests in order to evaluate the need for the abdominal CT-scan and specific therapy before hospital admission of the patients with COVID-19 related life-threatening acute pancreatitis.

Assessment of the course of acute pancreatitis in the light of aetiology: a systematic review and meta-analysis

The main causes of acute pancreatitis (AP) are biliary disease, alcohol consumption, hypertriglyceridaemia (HTG) and endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP). The aim of this meta-analysis was to evaluate the effects of these aetiological factors on the severity and outcome of AP. Pubmed and Embase were searched between 01/01/2012 and 31/05/2020. Included articles involved adult alcoholic, biliary, HTG- or post-ERCP AP (PAP) patients. Primary outcome was severity, secondary outcomes were organ failures, intensive care unit admission, recurrence rate, pancreatic necrosis, mortality, length of hospital stay, pseudocyst, fluid collection and systematic inflammatory response syndrome. Data were analysed from 127 eligible studies. The risk for non-mild (moderately severe and severe) condition was the highest in HTG-induced AP (HTG-AP) followed by alcoholic AP (AAP), biliary AP (BAP) and PAP. Recurrence rate was significantly lower among BAP vs. HTG-AP or AAP patients (OR = 2.69 and 2.98, 95% CI 1.55–4.65 and 2.22–4.01, respectively). Mortality rate was significantly greater in HTG-AP vs. AAP or BAP (OR = 1.72 and 1.50, 95% CI 1.04–2.84 and 0.96–2.35, respectively), pancreatic necrosis occurred more frequently in AAP than BAP patients (OR = 1.58, 95% CI 1.08–2.30). Overall, there is a potential association between aetiology and the development and course of AP. HTG-AP is associated with the highest number of complications. Furthermore, AAP is likely to be more severe than BAP or PAP. Greater emphasis should be placed on determining aetiology on admission.

The Human Immune Response to Cadaveric and Living Donor Liver Allografts

The liver is an important contributor to the human immune system and it plays a pivotal role in the creation of both immunoreactive and tolerogenic conditions. Liver transplantation provides the best chance of survival for both children and adults with liver failure or cancer. With current demand exceeding the number of transplantable livers from donors following brain death, improved knowledge, technical advances and the desire to prevent avoidable deaths has led to the transplantation of organs from living, ABO incompatible (ABOi), cardiac death donors and machine based organ preservation with acceptable results. The liver graft is the most well-tolerated, from an immunological perspective, of all solid organ transplants. Evidence suggests successful cessation of immunosuppression is possible in ~20–40% of liver transplant recipients without immune mediated graft injury, a state known as “operational tolerance.” An immunosuppression free future following liver transplantation is an ambitious but perhaps not unachievable goal. The initial immune response following transplantation is a sterile inflammatory process mediated by the innate system and the mechanisms relate to the preservation-reperfusion process. The severity of this injury is influenced by graft factors and can have significant consequences. There are minimal experimental studies that delineate the differences in the adaptive immune response to the various forms of liver allograft. Apart from ABOi transplants, antibody mediated hyperacute rejection is rare following liver transplant. T-cell mediated rejection is common following liver transplantation and its incidence does not differ between living or deceased donor grafts. Transplantation in the first year of life results in a higher rate of operational tolerance, possibly due to a bias toward Th2 cytokines (IL4, IL10) during this period. This review further describes the current understanding of the immunological response toward liver allografts and highlight the areas of this topic yet to be fully understood.

Moderately severe and severe acute pancreatitis : a systematic review of the outcomes in the USA and European Union-5

Background and objectives

The global incidence of hospitalisation due to acute pancreatitis (AP) has been rising in the recent decades. In the USA alone, there was a 13.2% increase between 2009 and 2012 compared with 2002–2005. There remains a lack of approved treatments to prevent disease progression, leaving many liable to developing complications that include multisystem organ failure (OF) and death. This therapeutic deficit raises questions about the scale of the current burden of illness (BOI) associated with severe forms of AP. The aim of the systematic literature review (SLR) was to assess clinical, humanistic, and economic outcomes associated with moderately severe AP (MSAP) and severe AP (SAP) in the USA and the European Union-5 (EU-5).

Methods

Systematic searches were conducted in MEDLINE and Embase to identify studies published in English (between 2007 and 2017) that reported on the BOI of MSAP and/or SAP. Manual searches of ‘grey’ literature sources were also conducted.

Results

The SLR identified 19 studies which indicated that 15%–20% of patients with AP progress to more severe forms of the disease, up to 10.5% of those with SAP require surgery for complications, and up to 40% die during hospitalisation. By contrast, there appears to be a lack of data on the extent to which SAP affects patients’ quality of life.

Conclusion

The available evidence clearly demonstrates that the current management for MSAP and SAP in the USA and EU-5 does not adequately meet patients’ needs. Early identification and intervention for AP is crucial, given the evidence of high rates of morbidity and an associated economic burden that is considerable. Since many patients with the condition present to hospitals at a point when multisystem OF or death is highly likely, there is a particularly urgent need for effective treatment options to prevent disease progression.

Exocrine Pancreatic Insufficiency Following Acute Pancreatitis: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

The epidemiology of exocrine pancreatic insufficiency (EPI) after acute pancreatitis (AP) is uncertain. We sought to determine the prevalence, progression, etiology and pancreatic enzyme replacement therapy (PERT) requirements for EPI during follow-up of AP by systematic review and meta-analysis.

METHODS

Scopus, Medline and Embase were searched for prospective observational studies or randomized clinical trials (RCTs) of PERT reporting EPI during the first admission (between the start of oral refeeding and before discharge) or follow-up (≥ 1 month of discharge) for AP in adults. EPI was diagnosed by direct and/or indirect laboratory exocrine pancreatic function tests.

RESULTS

Quantitative data were analyzed from 370 patients studied during admission (10 studies) and 1795 patients during follow-up (39 studies). The pooled prevalence of EPI during admission was 62% (95% confidence interval: 39-82%), decreasing significantly during follow-up to 35% (27-43%; risk difference: - 0.34, - 0.53 to - 0.14). There was a two-fold increase in the prevalence of EPI with severe compared with mild AP, and it was higher in patients with pancreatic necrosis and those with an alcohol etiology. The prevalence decreased during recovery, but persisted in a third of patients. There was no statistically significant difference between EPI and new-onset pre-diabetes/diabetes (risk difference: 0.8, 0.7-1.1, P = 0.33) in studies reporting both. Sensitivity analysis showed fecal elastase-1 assay detected significantly fewer patients with EPI than other tests.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of EPI during admission and follow-up is substantial in patients with a first attack of AP. Unanswered questions remain about the way this is managed, and further RCTs are indicated.

Recurrent biliary acute pancreatitis is frequent in a real-world setting

BACKGROUND

Data about recurrent acute pancreatitis (RAP) are limited.

AIMS

To evaluate the rate of RAP and associated factors.

METHODS

Single-centre prospective study of consecutive patients at first episode of acute pancreatitis (AP) being followed-up.

RESULTS

Of 266 consecutive AP patients, (47% biliary, 15.4% alcoholic, 14.3% idiopathic) 66 (24.8%) had RAP in a mean follow-up of 42 months; 17.9% of recurrences occurred within 30 days from discharge. Age, gender, smoking and severity of first AP were not associated with RAP risk. The rate of biliary RAP was 31.3% in patients who did not receive any treatment, 18% in those treated with ERCP only, 16% in those who received cholecystectomy only, and 0% in those treated both with surgery and ERCP. Patients with biliary AP who received cholecystectomy had a significantly longer time of recurrence-free survival and reduced recurrence risk (HR = 0.45). In patients with alcoholic AP, the rate of recurrence was lower in those who quit drinking (5.8% vs 33%; p = 0.05). The alcoholic aetiology was associated with a higher risk of having >2 RAP episodes.

CONCLUSION

RAP occurs in about 25% of cases, and failure to treat biliary aetiology or quitting drinking is associated with increased recurrence risk.

Consensus guidelines on severe acute pancreatitis

This Position Paper contains clinically oriented guidelines by the Italian Association for the Study of the Pancreas (AISP) for the diagnosis and treatment of severe acute pancreatitis. The statements were formulated by three working groups of experts who searched and analysed the most recent literature; a consensus process was then performed using a modified Delphi procedure. The statements provide recommendations on the most appropriate definition of the complications of severe acute pancreatitis, the diagnostic approach and the timing of conservative as well as interventional endoscopic, radiological and surgical treatments.

"Ductal adenocarcinoma in anular pancreas"

INTRODUCTION

The annular pancreas is a congenital anomaly in which pancreatic tissue partially or completely surrounds the second portion of the duodenum. Its often located above of papilla of Vater (85%), rarely below (15%). This pancreatic tissue is often easily dissociable to the duodenum but there is same cases where it the tissue is into the muscolaris wall of the duodenum.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We describe three case of annular pancreas hospitalized in our facility between January 2004 and January 2009. There were 2 male 65 and 69 years old respectively and 1 female of 60 years old, presented complaining of repeated episodes of mild epigastric pain. Laboratory tests (including tumor markers), a direct abdomen X-ray with enema, EGDS and total body CT scan were performed to study to better define the diagnosis. EUS showed the presence of tissue infiltrating the muscle layer all around the first part of duodenum. Biopsies performed found the presence of pancreatic tissue with focal areas of adenocarcinoma. Subtotal gastrectomy with Roux was performed. The histological examinations shows an annular pancreas of D1 with multiple focal area of adenocarcinoma. (T1aN0M0).

RESULTS

We performed a follow up at 5 years. One patients died after 36 months for cardiovascular hit. Two patients, one male and one female, was 5-years disease-free.

DISCUSSION

Annular pancreas is an uncommon congenital anomaly which usually presents itself in infants and newborn. Rarely it can present in late adult life with wide range of clinical severities thereby making its diagnosis difficult. Pre-operative diagnosis is often difficult. CT scan can illustrate the pancreatic tissue encircling the duodenum. ERCP and MRCP are useful in outlining the annular pancreatic duct. Surgery still remains necessary to confirm diagnosis and bypassing the obstructed segment.

The use of intraoperative ultrasound for diagnosis and stadiation in pancreatic head neoformations

The intraoperative staging of the pancreatic cancer is important to make a proper treatment. For this reason the intraoperative echography is playing an important role in the right treatment choice. The intraoperative echography, that can be performed with an open or laparoscopic probe, is used to confirm the preoperative diagnosis and assess the pancreatic cancer resecability. The intraoperative echography (IOUS) or laparoscopic intraoperative echography (LIOUS) are useful to identify the patients with a non resecable cancer and perform a faster neoadjuvant treatment. The LIOUS can also avoid an useless laparotomy. The aim of this study is to assess, both in our experience and in the cited literature, the concordance rate between the pancreatic cancer preoperative staging, performed with TC and MRI (when it is available), and intraoperative staging, performed with intraoperative laparotomic or laparoscopic echography.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We have analyzed the treatment management of 34 patients, who were candidate to major surgery for suspected pancreatic head cancer and who underwent to intraoperative LIOUS or IOUS staging from 2001 to 2012.

RESULTS

LIOUS and IOUS have allowed to detect cases in which preoperative diagnosis, proved by CT and MRI, was not agreeing with intraoperative diagnosis (22 patients on 34, 64% discordance rate), avoiding the execution of a demolitive and uneseful surgery in order to guarantee the surveillance and life's quality of patients.

CONCLUSION

We suggest to perform in every patients undergone to pancreatic surgery an intraoperative ultrasound exam, to detect unresecable and unpredicted lesions.

Long-term survival after curative resection for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma--Surgical treatment

INTRODUCTION

Recent reports have demonstrated improvement in the 5-years serviva with resecate ductal adenocarcinoma. The aim of study is to determinate the factor influencing long-term survival after DCP.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We have critically reviewed a group of 85 patients how were admitted to our department with diagnosis of ductal adenocarcinoma of the head of pancreas between January 1974 and January 1998.

RESULTS

Patients were stratified according to stage using TNM classification; in stage I 31 patients with 5 T1aN0M0 disease, 11 patients with T1bN0M0 and 15 patients T2N0M0 disease. By contrast, in stage III 54 patients with 48 patients T2N1M0 and 6 patients with T3N1M0. Tumour size was recorded for 72 patients with a median of 3.8 cm. The R1 dissection was performed in 67 patients. The R2 resection was performed in 18 patients. In our series we verified and analysed the histopathologic features of 5 patients with 15-years survival (5.8%). The features regard age, male or female, tumours size, stage and positive lymph node resection.

DISCUSSION

We found a specifically subset of patients where the combination of prognostic factors, in particular, negative surgical margins R0, tumour size ≤ 30 mm and the absence of lymph node metastasis independently reduced the mortality indicating that earlier tumour detection and histologically curative resection are important factors contributing to long term survival and healing of ductal adenocarcinoma of the head of the pancreas.

Percutaneous CT-guided irreversible electroporation followed by chemotherapy as a novel neoadjuvant protocol in locally advanced pancreatic cancer: Our preliminary experience

INTRODUCTION

Irreversible electroporation (IRE) is a non-thermal ablation technique recently used in pancreatic cancer. In our prospective study we evaluated safety, feasibility and efficacy of a neoadjuvant protocol based on CT-guided percutaneous IRE followed by chemotherapy in patients with locally advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC).

METHODS

We performed CT-guided percutaneous IRE in 20 patients with LAPC, followed by a combination of gemcitabine (1000 mg/mq) and oxaliplatin (100 mg/mq) biweekly. Imaging follow-up was performed by a contrast enhanced CT scan at 1, 3, 6 months and then every 3 months.

RESULTS

No major complications occurred. Two patients died 3 and 4 months after IRE because of rapidly progressive disease. In the remaining 18 patients 6-month imaging follow-up showed a mean lesions volumetric decrease percentage of 42.89% (95% Confidence Interval: 34.90-54.88%). Thanks to lesions downstaging, three patients underwent R0 resection. At last available follow-up (mean follow-up 91 months; range 6-14), imaging showed no disease progression or post-surgical relapse in all 18 cases. The mean estimated survival was 12,950 months (95% CI: 11,570-14,332).

CONCLUSIONS

Our preliminary study suggests that IRE followed by chemotherapy is safe, feasible and effective in producing local control of LAPC, with a possible downstaging effect to resectable lesions.

Japanese guidelines for the management of acute pancreatitis: Japanese Guidelines 2015

BACKGROUND

Japanese (JPN) guidelines for the management of acute pancreatitis were published in 2006. The severity assessment criteria for acute pancreatitis were later revised by the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (MHLW) in 2008, leading to their publication as the JPN Guidelines 2010. Following the 2012 revision of the Atlanta Classifications of Acute Pancreatitis, in which the classifications of regional complications of pancreatitis were revised, the development of a minimally invasive method for local complications of pancreatitis spread, and emerging evidence was gathered and revised into the JPN Guidelines.

METHODS

A comprehensive evaluation was carried out on the evidence for epidemiology, diagnosis, severity, treatment, post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) pancreatitis and clinical indicators, based on the concepts of the GRADE system (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation). With the graded recommendations, where the evidence was unclear, Meta-Analysis team for JPN Guidelines 2015 conducted an additional new meta-analysis, the results of which were included in the guidelines.

RESULTS

Thirty-nine questions were prepared in 17 subject areas, for which 43 recommendations were made. The 17 subject areas were: Diagnosis, Diagnostic imaging, Etiology, Severity assessment, Transfer indication, Fluid therapy, Nasogastric tube, Pain control, Antibiotics prophylaxis, Protease inhibitor, Nutritional support, Intensive care, management of Biliary Pancreatitis, management of Abdominal Compartment Syndrome, Interventions for the local complications, Post-ERCP pancreatitis and Clinical Indicator (Pancreatitis Bundles 2015). Meta-analysis was conducted in the following four subject areas based on randomized controlled trials: (1) prophylactic antibiotics use; (2) prophylactic pancreatic stent placement for the prevention of post-ERCP pancreatitis; (3) prophylactic non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) for the prevention of post-ERCP pancreatitis; and (4) peritoneal lavage. Using the results of the meta-analysis, recommendations were graded to create useful information. In addition, a mobile application was developed, which made it possible to diagnose, assess severity and check pancreatitis bundles.

CONCLUSIONS

The JPN Guidelines 2015 were prepared using the most up-to-date methods, and including the latest recommended medical treatments, and we are confident that this will make them easy for many clinicians to use, and will provide a useful tool in the decision-making process for the treatment of patients, and optimal medical support. The free mobile application and calculator for the JPN Guidelines 2015 is available via http://www.jshbps.jp/en/guideline/jpn-guideline2015.html.

A single-centre prospective, cohort study of the natural history of acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

The natural history of acute pancreatitis is based on clinical studies that aim to elucidate the course of disease on the basis of predicted risk factors.

AIMS

To evaluate the long-term occurrence of recurrent acute pancreatitis and chronic pancreatitis in a cohort of patients following an initial episode of acute pancreatitis.

METHODS

196 patients were enrolled consecutively and studied prospectively. Clinical characteristics, exogenously/endogenously-associated factors, and evolution to recurrent acute pancreatitis and chronic pancreatitis were analyzed.

RESULTS

40 patients developed recurrent acute pancreatitis 13 of whom developed chronic pancreatitis. In a univariate analysis, recurrent acute pancreatitis was associated with an idiopathic aetiology (p<0.001), pancreas divisum (p=0.001), and higher usage of cigarettes and alcohol (p<0.001; p=0.023). Chronic pancreatitis was associated with a severe first episode of acute pancreatitis (p=0.048), PD (p=0.03), and cigarette smoking (p=0.038). By multivariate analysis, pancreas divisum was an independent risk factor for recurrent acute pancreatitis (OR 11.5, 95% CI 1.6-83.3). A severe first-episode of acute pancreatitis increased the risk of progressing to chronic pancreatitis by nine-fold.

CONCLUSIONS

Special attention should be given to patients who experience a severe first attack of acute pancreatitis as there appears to be an increased risk of developing chronic pancreatitis over the long term.