Medicaid expansion and drug overdose mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States

How do restrictions on opioid prescribing, harm reduction, and treatment coverage policies relate to opioid overdose deaths in the United States in 2013-2020? An application of a new state opioid policy scale

BACKGROUND

Identifying the most effective state laws and provisions to reduce opioid overdose deaths remains critical.

METHODS

Using expert ratings of opioid laws, we developed annual state scores for three domains: opioid prescribing restrictions, harm reduction, and Medicaid treatment coverage. We modeled associations of state opioid policy domain scores with opioid-involved overdose death counts in 3133 counties, and among racial/ethnic subgroups in 1485 counties (2013-2020). We modeled a second set of domain scores based solely on experts' highest 20 ranked provisions to compare with the all-provisions model.

RESULTS

From 2013 to 2020, moving from non- to full enactment of harm reduction domain laws (i.e., 0 to 1 in domain score) was associated with reduced county-level relative risk (RR) of opioid overdose death in the subsequent year (adjusted RR = 0.84, 95 % credible interval (CrI): 0.77, 0.92). Moving from non- to full enactment of opioid prescribing restrictions and Medicaid treatment coverage domains was associated with higher overdose in 2013-2016 (aRR 1.69 (1.35, 2.11) and aRR 1.20 (1.11, 1.29) respectively); both shifted to the null in 2017-2020. Effect sizes and direction were similar across racial/ethnic groups. Results for experts' highest 20 ranked provisions did not differ from the all-provision model.

CONCLUSIONS

More robust state harm reduction policy scores were associated with reduced overdose risk, adjusting for other policy domains. Harmful associations with opioid prescribing restrictions in 2013-2016 may reflect early unintended consequences of these laws. Medicaid coverage domain findings did not align with experts' perceptions, though data limitations precluded inclusion of several highly ranked Medicaid policies.

The uneven impact of Medicaid expansion on rural and urban Black, Latino/a, and White mortality

PURPOSE

To determine the differential impact of Medicaid expansion on all-cause mortality between Black, Latino/a, and White populations in rural and urban areas, and assess how expansion impacted mortality disparities between these groups.

METHODS

We employ a county-level time-varying heterogenous treatment effects difference-in-difference analysis of Medicaid expansion on all-cause age-adjusted mortality for those 64 years of age or younger from 2009 to 2019. For all counties within the 50 US States and the District of Columbia, we use restricted-access vital statistics data to estimate Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATET) for all combinations of racial and ethnic group (Black, Latino/a, White), rurality (rural, urban), and sex. We then assess aggregate ATET, as well as how the ATET changed as time from expansion increased.

FINDINGS

Medicaid expansion led to a reduction in all-cause age-adjusted mortality for urban Black populations, but not rural Black populations. Urban White populations experienced mixed effects dependent on years after expansion. Latino/a populations saw no appreciable impact. While no effect was observed for rural Black and Latino/a populations, rural White all-cause age-adjusted mortality unexpectedly increased due to Medicaid expansion. These effects reduced rural- and urban-specific Black-White mortality disparities but did not shrink the rural-urban mortality gap.

CONCLUSIONS

The mortality-reducing impact of Medicaid expansion has been uneven across racial and ethnic groups and rural-urban status; suggesting that many populations-particularly rural individuals-are not seeing the same benefits as others. It is imperative that states work to ensure Medicaid expansion is being appropriately implemented in rural areas.

Health insurance system fragmentation and COVID-19 mortality: Evidence from Peru

Peru has a fragmented health insurance system in which most insureds can only access the providers in their insurer's network. The two largest sub-systems covered about 53% and 30% of the population at the start of the pandemic; however, some individuals have dual insurance and can thereby access both sets of providers. We use data on 24.7 million individuals who belonged to one or both sub-systems to investigate the effect of dual insurance on COVID-19 mortality. We estimate recursive bivariate probit models using the difference in the distance to the nearest hospital in the two insurance sub-systems as Instrumental Variable. The effect of dual insurance was to reduce COVID-19 mortality risk by 0.23% compared with the sample mean risk of 0.54%. This implies that the 133,128 COVID-19 deaths in the sample would have been reduced by 56,418 (95%CI: 34,894, 78,069) if all individuals in the sample had dual insurance.

Changes in Substance Use Diagnoses in the Great Plains during the COVID-19 Pandemic

As drug overdose mortality rises in the United States, healthcare visits present critical opportunities to mitigate this trend. This study examines changes in healthcare visits for substance use disorders (SUDs) and remission prior to and during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Great Plains, with a focus on identifying the characteristics of those served. Data were analyzed from 109,671 patient visits (mode = one visit per patient), encompassing diverse demographics, including sex, age, race, ethnicity, and geographic location. Visits analyzed included those for Alcohol Use Disorder (AUD), Opioid Use Disorder (OUD), or Stimulant Use Disorder (StUD) and those in remission of these disorders between March 2019 and March 2021. Patient demographic information and geographic factors, like rurality and Medicaid expansion status, were considered, and logistic regression was utilized. Visits were primarily by White (70.83%) and Native American (21.39%) patients, non-Hispanic (91.70%) patients, and males (54.16%). Various demographic, geographic, and temporal trends were observed. Findings indicated that males were more likely to receive an AUD diagnosis, while females were more likely to receive an OUD or StUD diagnosis. Metropolitan-residing patients were more likely to receive an AUD diagnosis, while non-metropolitan patients were more likely to receive an OUD diagnosis. Remission odds increased for StUD during the pandemic but decreased for AUD and OUD. These findings illuminate the demographic and geographic patterns of SUD-related healthcare visits, suggesting critical touchpoints for intervention. The results emphasize the urgent need for targeted healthcare strategies, especially in rural and underserved areas, to address persistent health disparities.

Evolution of an epidemic: Understanding the opioid epidemic in the United States and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on opioid-related mortality

We conduct this research with a two-fold aim: providing a quantitative analysis of the opioid epidemic in the United States (U.S.), and exploring the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on opioid-related mortality. The duration and persistence of the opioid epidemic lends itself to the need for an overarching analysis with extensive scope. Additionally, studying the ramifications of these concurrent severe public health crises is vital for informing policies to avoid preventable mortality. Using data from CDC WONDER, we consider opioid-related deaths grouped by Census Region spanning January 1999 to October 2022 inclusive, and later add on a demographic component with gender-stratification. Through the lens of key events in the opioid epidemic, we build an interrupted time series model to reveal statistically significant drivers of opioid-related mortality. We then employ a counterfactual to approximate trends in the absence of COVID-19, and estimate excess opioid-related deaths (defined as observed opioid-related deaths minus projected opioid-related deaths) associated with the pandemic. According to our model, the proliferation of fentanyl contributed to sustained increases in opioid-related death rates across three of the four U.S. census regions, corroborating existing knowledge in the field. Critically, each region has an immediate increase to its opioid-related monthly death rate of at least 0.31 deaths per 100,000 persons at the start of the pandemic, highlighting the nationwide knock-on effects of COVID-19. There are consistent positive deviations from the expected monthly opioid-related death rate and a sizable burden from cumulative excess opioid-related deaths, surpassing 60,000 additional deaths nationally from March 2020 to October 2022, ∼70% of which were male. These results suggest that robust, multi-faceted measures are even more important in light of the COVID-19 pandemic to prevent overdoses and educate users on the risks associated with potent synthetic opioids such as fentanyl.

Effect of the opioid crisis on the liver transplantation donor pool: A national analysis

BACKGROUND

Over the last decade there has been a surge in overdose deaths due to the opioid crisis. We sought to characterize the temporal change in overdose donor (OD) use in liver transplantation (LT), as well as associated post-LT outcomes, relative to the COVID-19 era.

METHODS

LT candidates and donors listed between January 2016 and September 2022 were identified from the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients database. Trends in LT donors and changes related to OD were assessed pre- versus post-COVID-19 (February 2020).

RESULTS

Between 2016 and 2022, most counties in the United States experienced an increase in overdose-related deaths (n = 1284, 92.3%) with many counties (n = 458, 32.9%) having more than a doubling in drug overdose deaths. Concurrently, there was an 11.2% increase in overall donors, including a 41.7% increase in the number of donors who died from drug overdose. In pre-COVID-19 overdose was the 4th top mechanism of donor death, while in the post-COVID-19 era, overdose was the 2nd most common cause of donor death. OD was younger (OD: 35 yrs, IQR 29-43 vs. non-OD: 43 yrs, IQR 31-56), had lower body mass index (≥35 kg/cm2, OD: 31.2% vs. non-OD: 33.5%), and was more likely to be HCV+ (OD: 28.9% vs. non-OD: 5.4%) with lower total bilirubin (≥1.1 mg/dL, OD: 12.9% vs. non-OD: 20.1%) (all p < .001). Receipt of an OD was not associated with worse graft survival (HR .94, 95% CI .88-1.01, p = .09).

CONCLUSIONS

Opioid deaths markedly increased following the COVID-19 pandemic, substantially altering the LT donor pool in the United States.

Evaluating the Effect of COVID-19 on Outpatient Opioid Utilization Among Health First Colorado Members and a National Non-Medicaid Cohort: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis

Objective

COVID-19, coinciding with the opioid epidemic in the United States, has had significant impacts on health-care utilization. While mixed, early analyses signaled a potential resurgence in opioid use following the pandemic. The primary study objective was to assess the association of the COVID-19 pandemic with opioid utilization among Health First Colorado (Colorado's Medicaid Program) members and a non-Medicaid managed care cohort who did not have a diagnosis of cancer or sickle cell disease.

Patients and Methods

Using an interrupted time series and segmented regression analysis, this population-level study assessed the association of the COVID-19 pandemic on prescribed utilization of long- and short-acting opioid analgesics among Health First Colorado members and a random sample of non-Medicaid managed care members. Pharmacy claims data for both cohorts were assessed between October 1, 2018, and September 30, 2021, with April 2020 identified as the interruption of interest. We evaluated the following monthly opioid use measures separately for short-acting and long-acting opioids: number of members filling an opioid, total fills, and total days supplied.

Results

Short- and long-acting opioid utilization was significantly decreasing among Health First Colorado members in the 18 months prior to the start of COVID-19. After the onset of the pandemic, utilization stabilized and slopes were not significantly different from zero. Among the non-Medicaid managed care cohort, short- and long-acting opioid utilization significantly decreased in the 18 months leading up to the onset of the pandemic. After the onset of the pandemic, utilization of long-acting opioids stabilized, while utilization of short-acting opioids significantly increased.

Conclusion

While we observed an increase in opioid utilization measures post-pandemic in the non-Medicaid managed care cohort, a similar increase was not observed in Health First Colorado members suggesting that thoughtful opioid policies put in place pre-pandemic may have been effective at controlling potential inappropriate opioid utilization.

Escalating costs of self-injury mortality in the 21st century United States: an interstate observational study

BACKGROUND

Estimating the economic costs of self-injury mortality (SIM) can inform health planning and clinical and public health interventions, serve as a basis for their evaluation, and provide the foundation for broadly disseminating evidence-based policies and practices. SIM is operationalized as a composite of all registered suicides at any age, and 80% of drug overdose (intoxication) deaths medicolegally classified as 'accidents,' and 90% of corresponding undetermined (intent) deaths in the age group 15 years and older. It is the long-term practice of the United States (US) Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to subsume poisoning (drug and nondrug) deaths under the injury rubric. This study aimed to estimate magnitude and change in SIM and suicide costs in 2019 dollars for the United States (US), including the 50 states and the District of Columbia.

METHODS

Cost estimates were generated from underlying cause-of-death data for 1999/2000 and 2018/2019 from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC's) Wide-ranging ONline Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER). Estimation utilized the updated version of Medical and Work Loss Cost Estimation Methods for CDC's Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System (WISQARS). Exposures were medical expenditures, lost work productivity, and future quality of life loss. Main outcome measures were disaggregated, annual-averaged total and per capita costs of SIM and suicide for the nation and states in 1999/2000 and 2018/2019.

RESULTS

40,834 annual-averaged self-injury deaths in 1999/2000 and 101,325 in 2018/2019 were identified. Estimated national costs of SIM rose by 143% from $0.46 trillion to $1.12 trillion. Ratios of quality of life and work losses to medical spending in 2019 US dollars in 2018/2019 were 1,476 and 526, respectively, versus 1,419 and 526 in 1999/2000. Total national suicide costs increased 58%-from $318.6 billion to $502.7 billion. National per capita costs of SIM doubled from $1,638 to $3,413 over the observation period; costs of the suicide component rose from $1,137 to $1,534. States in the top quintile for per capita SIM, those whose cost increases exceeded 152%, concentrated in the Great Lakes, Southeast, Mideast and New England. States in the bottom quintile, those with per capita cost increases below 70%, were located in the Far West, Southwest, Plains, and Rocky Mountain regions. West Virginia exhibited the largest increase at 263% and Nevada the smallest at 22%. Percentage per capita cost increases for suicide were smaller than for SIM. Only the Far West, Southwest and Mideast were not represented in the top quintile, which comprised states with increases of 50% or greater. The bottom quintile comprised states with per capita suicide cost increases below 24%. Regions represented were the Far West, Southeast, Mideast and New England. North Dakota and Nevada occupied the extremes on the cost change continuum at 75% and - 1%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The scale and surge in the economic costs of SIM to society are large. Federal and state prevention and intervention programs should be financed with a clear understanding of the total costs-fiscal, social, and personal-incurred by deaths due to self-injurious behaviors.

National trends in buprenorphine prescribing before and during the COVID-19 pandemic

OBJECTIVE

Recent studies have shown that early in the COVID-19 pandemic, rates of buprenorphine prescription dispensing for opioid use disorder (OUD) were relatively stable. However, whether that pattern continued later in the pandemic is unclear. This study examines the monthly rate of dispensed buprenorphine prescriptions during the early period and the later period of the pandemic.

METHODS

The study uses interrupted time series analysis to examine buprenorphine prescription dispensed, average day's supply, payment source, and the number of patients with a dispensed buprenorphine prescription. The study utilized January 2019-April 2021 data from IQVIA National Prescription Audit, PayerTrack and Total Patient Tracker databases.

RESULTS

After an initial increase in the number of patients prescribed buprenorphine in the early period of the pandemic, the monthly rate of patients prescribed buprenorphine increased at a lower rate compared to the pre-pandemic period (6100 vs 4600/month). The study observed a decline in the number of buprenorphine prescriptions dispensed both in levels and growth rate during the pandemic, but an increase occurred in the average day's supply of buprenorphine prescriptions (17 days pre-pandemic vs 18.6 day during the pandemic). Medicaid became the primary payer of buprenorphine prescriptions as the pandemic continued, while buprenorphine prescriptions paid for by private insurance declined.

DISCUSSION

Expanding and maintaining access to treatment for OUD were key priorities in federal and state responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. The results of our study underscore the importance of policy efforts to help increase buprenorphine prescribing for OUD.

Estimating the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on rising trends in drug overdose mortality in the United States, 2018-2021

PURPOSE

During the COVID-19 pandemic, social and economic disruption such as social isolation, job and income losses, and increased psychological distress, may have contributed to the increase in drug-overdose mortality. This study aims to measure the impact of the pandemic on monthly trends in drug-overdose mortality in the United States.

METHODS

We used the 2018-2020 final and 2021 provisional monthly deaths from the National Vital Statistics System and monthly population estimates from the Census Bureau to compute monthly mortality rates by age, sex, and race/ethnicity. We use log-linear regression models to estimate monthly percent increases in mortality rates from January 2018 through November 2021.

RESULTS

The age-adjusted drug-overdose mortality rate among individuals aged older than or equal to 15 years increased by 30% between 2019 (70,459 deaths) and 2020 (91,536 deaths). During January 2018-November 2021, the monthly drug-overdose mortality rate increased by 2.05% per month for Blacks, 2.25% for American Indians/Alaska Natives, 1.96% for Hispanics, 1.33% for Asian/Pacific Islanders, and 0.96% for non-Hispanic Whites. Average monthly increases in mortality were most marked among those aged 15-24 and 35-44 years.

CONCLUSIONS

The COVID-19 pandemic had a substantial impact on the rising trends in drug-overdose mortality during the peak months in 2020 and 2021.

Pregnancy, Opioid Use Disorder and COVID-19: An Evaluation of Acute Care Presentations During a Pandemic

INTRODUCTION

The opioid epidemic has been exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in increased acute care opioid-related and overdose visits. We sought to assess how the pandemic may have impacted an obstetric cohort impacted by opioid misuse in the acute care context.

METHODS

A retrospective review of acute care presentations of patients with concomitant pregnancy (Z33.1) and opioid-related diagnostic codes (T10 codes and/or F11) was conducted over a 24-month period (pre-COVID = March 2019 through February 2020, post-COVID = March 2020 through February 2021). Descriptive statistics and χ2 analysis of pre- versus post-COVID presentations were performed.

RESULTS

A total of 193 individuals, 104 (53.9%) pre- and 89 (46.1%) post-COVID, accounting for 292 total encounters, 160 (54.8%) pre- and 132 (45.2%) post-COVID, were seen for acute care visits (P = 0.84). Age (P = 0.15), race (P = 0.59), and insurance status (P = 0.17) were similar pre- versus post-COVID. The majority of presentations, pre- (40.4%) and post-COVID (44.9%), were for opioid withdrawal (P = 0.74). Although post-COVID individuals were more likely to lack prenatal care (48.3% versus 39.4% pre-COVID), this trend was not significant (P = 0.19). Similar proportions of individuals were affected by pregnancy complications (51.9% pre-, 44.9% post-COVID; P = 0.30). Similar proportions of individuals were affected by adverse pregnancy outcomes (44.2% pre-, 48.3% post-COVID; P = 0.64).

CONCLUSION

The COVID-19 pandemic did not have a statistically significant effect on opioid-related acute care presentations or outcomes for obstetric patients. In this acute care cohort, however, opioid misuse had significant general impact on pregnancy complications and outcomes, suggesting unmet needs in this population.

Association between state Medicaid expansion status and health outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic

OBJECTIVE

To assess post-COVID-19 changes in insurance coverage, health behaviors, and self-assessed health among low-income, non-elderly adults by state Medicaid expansion status.

DATA SOURCES

We used nationally representative survey data from the 2016 through 2020 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). The sample was restricted to adults aged 19-64 with household income below 138 percent of the federal poverty level (N = 179,135).

STUDY DESIGN

We examined a broad set of outcomes related to coverage, health behaviors, and self-assessed health available in the BRFSS. We used a difference-in-differences model to compare changes in outcomes for individuals living in the 35 states and DC that expanded Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act to those in the 15 non-expansion states before and after the COVID-19 pandemic commenced in March 2020.

DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS

N/A.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We found that the expansions provided some protection for low-income people during the pandemic. In 2020, relative to earlier years, people in expansion states were more likely to report very good or excellent health (4.9 percentage points, 95%CI = 0.022, 0.076; p < 0.01) and physical health (-0.393 days of poor physical health in the past month, 95%CI = -0.714, -0.072; p < 0.05), lower rates of smoking (-1.9 percentage points, 95%CI = -0.041, 0.004; p < 0.10) and heavy drinking (-1.4 percentage points, 95%CI = -0.025, -0.004; p < 0.01), and higher flu vaccination rates (2.8 percentage points, 95%CI = 0.005, 0.051; p < 0.05) than those in non-expansion states. These benefits were particularly salient for Black and Hispanic individuals. We found no significant differences in insurance coverage, exercise, obesity, and self-assessed mental health between expansion and non-expansion states for the overall low-income sample. However, the expansion was associated with greater insurance coverage for Hispanic adults during the pandemic.

CONCLUSIONS

Investments in public health through expanding Medicaid may shield low-income populations from some of the health ramifications of public health emergencies.

"A Lot of Things Stopped with COVID": Screening Pregnant Patients for Opioid Use and Related Conditions During the COVID-19 Pandemic

OBJECTIVE

We explored the impact of COVID-19 on universal screening programs for opioid use and related conditions among practicing clinicians or staff who work with pregnant patients.

METHODS

Semi-structured, in-depth qualitative interviews (n = 15) were conducted with practicing clinicians or staff in West-Central Florida between May and October 2020, representing both a range of professions and clinical settings that serve pregnant patients. Interviews were recorded, transcribed verbatim, and reviewed for accuracy. Independent coders conducted thematic content analysis iteratively in MaxQDA to identify emergent themes.

RESULTS

Four main themes were identified: worsening health and life conditions of pregnant patients, impaired patient-provider interactions, lack of priority and resources, and conducting opioid screening remotely. Pregnant patients often faced worsening mental health, lack of connection with health care providers, and socioenvironmental factors that increased the risk of overdose and intimate partner violence. Health care providers and facilities faced an infectious disease pandemic that simultaneously increased mental burden and reduced resources. Telehealth improved access to health care for many, but also came with implementation challenges such as inadequate technology, the need to address barriers to developing rapport with patients, and difficulty with certain social screens.

CONCLUSION

These themes describe facilitators of and barriers to implementing opioid and related screening programs during the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the increasing urgency of screening because of socioenvironmental factors. Patients, health care providers, and health practices may benefit from emergency plans that anticipate screening challenges given their increased importance during times of heightened risk, including disasters and epidemics.

The roles of the circadian hormone melatonin in drug addiction

Given the devastating social and health consequences of drug addiction and the limitations of current treatments, a new strategy is needed. Circadian system disruptions are frequently associated with drug addiction. Correcting abnormal circadian rhythms and improving sleep quality may thus be beneficial in the treatment of patients with drug addiction. Melatonin, an essential circadian hormone that modulates the biological clock, has anti-inflammatory, analgesic, anti-depressive, and neuroprotective effects via gut microbiota regulation and epigenetic modifications. It has attracted scientists' attention as a potential solution to drug abuse. This review summarized scientific evidence on the roles of melatonin in substance use disorders at the cellular, circuitry, and system levels, and discussed its potential applications as an intervention strategy for drug addiction.

Invited Commentary: Toward a Better Understanding of Disparities in Overdose Mortality

The United States has been in the grip of an epidemic of drug overdose mortality for the past few decades, and deaths from drug overdose increased dramatically during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. Townsend et al. (Am J Epidemiol. 2022;191(4):599-612) add to the growing literature highlighting the steep rise of drug overdose mortality among racial and ethnic minorities in the country. Using data from National Center for Health Statistics death certificates and employing principles of small-area estimation and a Bayesian hierarchical model to stabilize the estimates of smaller racial/ethnic groups and states, the authors found that combinations of opioid/stimulant drug overdose deaths saw a steep increase among racial and ethnic minorities, particularly Black Americans, between 2007 and 2019. The results from their analysis highlight the need to change the narrative around opioid deaths, to invest in targeted policies that address the growing burden of drug overdose faced by racial/ethnic minorities, and the importance of using innovative methods to address limitations to data disaggregation. The paper also demonstrates the importance of a holistic view of the challenges to the health of the American public.