Impact of catch-up human papillomavirus vaccination on cervical cancer incidence in Kenya: A mathematical modeling evaluation of HPV vaccination strategies in the context of moderate HIV prevalence

HPV vaccination is highly effective and cost-effective for cervical cancer prevention in women living with HIV in China: A cost-effectiveness analysis

The presence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection increases the risk of acquiring human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and developing HPV-related adversities. We aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination for women living with HIV in a Chinese setting. A decision-analysis Markov model was developed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of 36 HPV vaccination strategies for women living with HIV aged 18-45 years, from the healthcare system perspective. With the status quo, not vaccinating women living with HIV would lead to 51.99% (51,985/100,000) HIV-related deaths; 35.10% (35,098/100,000) would develop genital warts, 0.36% (355/100,000) develop cervical cancer, and among which 63.66% (226/355) die from cervical cancer over their lifetime (1,601,457 person-years). With a willingness to pay (WTP) threshold of three times gross domestic product (GDP), Gardasil 4 vaccination for all women living with HIV aged 18-45 years was the most cost-effective strategy (ICER = US $32,766/QALY gained). This strategy would reduce genital warts by 35.52% (12,467/35,098), cervical cancers by 12.96% (46/355), and cervical cancer deaths by 12.39% (28/226) over the lifetime of the cohort. If the future domestic Cecolin 9 vaccine is priced at 60% of Gardasil 9, vaccinating all women living with HIV aged 18-45 years with Cecolin 9 would be the most cost-effective strategy (ICER = US $30,493/QALY gained). Improving adherence to antiretroviral therapy for HIV may substantially improve the cost-effectiveness of both Gardasil 4 and Cecolin 9 vaccination.

Modeling HPV Self-Sampling Impact on Cervical Cancer in East African Immigrants

INTRODUCTION

Cervical cancer screening uptake among East African immigrants in the U.S. is low. Offering self-collected samples for human papillomavirus (HPV) testing increases screening coverage among underserved populations, but the potential impact on cervical cancer incidence and mortality is understudied.

METHODS

A Markov cohort state-transition model was used to predict the impact of primary HPV screening with self-sampling on cervical cancer incidence and mortality among East African immigrant women in Washington state. The model estimated cervical cancer cases and deaths for a hypothetical cohort from ages 25 to 80 years under alternative screening, diagnostic colposcopy and treatment scenarios. Base case scenarios compared primary HPV testing by clinician-sampling exclusively (standard of care) with self-sampling exclusively, assuming higher screening coverage (70% vs 63%) but lower colposcopy adherence with self-sampling (67% vs 83%) with equal treatment coverage of 85%, based on Washington state patient data. Sensitivity analyses with varied coverages, and also the combinations of the 2 strategies were evaluated. The model was developed and fitted between 2022 and 2024.

RESULTS

In the base case scenario, an exclusive self-sampling strategy results in 4% higher cervical cancer incidence and mortality compared to the standard of care. Self-sampling results in lower cancer incidence and mortality if colposcopy adherence is raised to the level of the standard of care and/or if coverage is increased beyond 90%. In scenarios combining clinician- with self-sampling, the benefits of reaching more women with self-sampling are attenuated if more than 34% of screening is done by self-sampling.

CONCLUSIONS

Self-sampling has the potential to improve cervical cancer prevention for underserved populations. The impact of the strategy can be enhanced with stronger linkage to follow-up care.

Association between mental health and substance use among reproductive-age women with HIV on cervical cancer screening and viral suppression outcomes

Women with HIV (WWH) face a heightened risk of cervical cancer and sub-optimal viral suppression. Although mental health conditions and substance use are known barriers to cervical cancer screening and viral suppression among WWH, little is known about the impact of specific mental health symptoms and substance use issues in reproductive-age WWH. This cross-sectional study examined the associations among depression and anxiety symptoms, substance use, cervical cancer screening, and viral suppression in a cohort of reproductive-age WWH enrolled in the Florida Cohort Study. Of WWH (n = 202) in the study, 42% reported anxiety, 35% reported depressive symptoms, 49% reported drug use, and 64% reported alcohol use within the past 12 months. In addition, 24% were not virally suppressed, 34% did not receive cervical cancer screening within the last year, and 13% did not receive cervical cancer screening within the last 3 years. Sub-optimal cervical cancer screening within the last year was associated with depression (p = 0.04) and anxiety (p = 0.007) symptoms. Mental health symptoms were significantly related to sub-optimal cervical cancer screening, which may be a target for clinical intervention. Future research should include social and structural barriers that may exist for achieving guideline-concordant cervical cancer screening and viral suppression.

Pay-it-forward strategy reduced HPV vaccine delay and increased uptake among catch-up age girls: A randomized clinical trial

Background

Catch-up HPV vaccination is challenging in many low and middle-income countries (LMICs). Pay-it-forward offers an individual a subsidized vaccine, then an opportunity to donate to help others access vaccinations. Our randomized control trial assessed the effectiveness of pay-it-forward in improving HPV vaccination among girls aged 15-18 years in China.

Methods and findings

Eligible participants were randomly assigned to either the pay-it-forward arm or standard-of-care arm (self-paid vaccination). The primary outcome was the first-dose HPV vaccination rate, verified against clinical records. Among 321 participants enrolled, most caregivers were female (80.1%). In the pay-it-forward arm, 55 of 161 (34.2%) girls received the HPV vaccine, compared with 28 of 160 (17.5%) girls in the standard-of-care arm (adjusted proportion difference = 17.9%, 95% CI: 8.7, 27.0, P<0.001). Among 55 girls in the pay-it-forward arm who received the vaccination, 37 (67.3%) wrote a postcard message, and 39 (70.9%) of their caregivers donated to support future girls. The financial cost per person vaccinated was $294 in the standard-of-care arm and $230 in the pay-it-forward arm.

Conclusions

The pro-social pay-it-forward strategy was effective to increase catch-up HPV vaccination among teenage girls with comparable costs.

Trial registration

ChiCTR2200055542.

The Potential Impact of a Single-Dose HPV Vaccination Schedule on Cervical Cancer Outcomes in Kenya: A Mathematical Modelling and Health Economic Analysis

Background: Human Papillomavirus (HPV) is the primary cause of cervical cancer. Single-dose HPV vaccination can effectively prevent high-risk HPV infection that causes cervical cancer and accelerate progress toward achieving cervical cancer elimination goals. We modelled the potential impact of adopting single-dose HPV vaccination strategies on health and economic outcomes in Kenya, where a two-dose schedule is the current standard. Methods: Using a validated compartmental transmission model of HPV and HIV in Kenya, we evaluated the costs from the payer's perspective to vaccinate girls by age 10 with either one or two doses and increasing coverage levels (0%, 70%, 77%, 90%). Additionally, we modelled single-dose strategies supplemented with either catch-up vaccination of adolescent girls and young women or vaccination for all by age 10, funded with the first five-years of cost savings of switching from a two- to one-dose schedule. Costs and outcomes were discounted at 3% annually, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated per disability-adjusted-life-year (DALY) averted. Results: All one-dose and the two-dose 90% coverage strategies were on the efficiency frontier, dominating the remaining two-dose strategies. The two-dose 90% coverage strategy had a substantially higher ICER (US$6508.80/DALY averted) than the one-dose 90% coverage (US$197.44/DALY averted). Transitioning from a two- to one-dose schedule could result in US$21.4 Million saved over the first five years, which could potentially fund 2.75 million supplemental HPV vaccinations. With this re-investment, all two-dose HPV vaccination scenarios would be dominated. The greatest DALYs were averted with the single-dose HPV vaccination schedule at 90% coverage supplemented with catch-up for 11-24-year-old girls, which had an ICER of US$78.73/DALYs averted. Conclusions: Considering the logistical and cost burdens of a two-dose schedule, a one-dose schedule for girls by age 10 would generate savings that could be leveraged for catch-up vaccination for older girls and accelerate cervical cancer elimination in Kenya.

circCUL3 drives malignant progression of cervical cancer by activating autophagy through sponge miR-223-3p upregulation of ATG7

Circular RNA (circRNA) has emerged as a pivotal regulatory factor in cancer biology, yet its exact role in cervical cancer remains incompletely understood. In this study, we investigated the functional role of circCUL3 in cervical cancer and explored its potential as a therapeutic target. Functional gain and loss experiments were conducted in Hela and Siha cell lines to elucidate the biological functions of circCUL3 in cervical cancer. The results revealed that circCUL3 overexpression significantly enhanced cell viability, migration, and invasion while suppressing apoptosis, while circCUL3 knockout displayed the opposite effects. Mechanistically, we identified hsa-miR-223-3p as a target of circCUL3, with its expression being negatively regulated by circCUL3. Furthermore, we discovered that circCUL3 could sequester miR-223-3p, leading to the upregulation of ATG7 expression, and this was linked to the regulation of autophagy in cervical cancer cells. In vivo validation using a xenograft mouse model further supported our in vitro findings. Notably, we found that chloroquine (CQ), an autophagy inhibitor, restored miR-223-3p expression and counteracted the oncogenic effect of circCUL3 overexpression. In conclusion, circCUL3 potentially contributes to the malignant progression of cervical cancer by acting as a sponge for miR-223-3p, resulting in the upregulation of ATG7 and the activation of autophagy.

HPV Infection and Prevention in Patients With Immune-Mediated Inflammatory Diseases: A Scoping Review

BACKGROUND/HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE

Human papillomavirus (HPV) infections are a significant public health concern as they cause various cancers, including those of the cervix, vulva, vagina, anus, penis, and oropharynx, in both women and men.

SUMMARY INTEGRATING THE CURRENT PUBLISHED LITERATURE

Individuals with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases, particularly systemic lupus erythematosus, have an increased risk of developing persistent HPV infection and subsequent precancerous lesions due to their immunosuppression.

MAJOR CONCLUSIONS

Vaccination and screening for precancerous lesions are 2 central management strategies that must be implemented in patients with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases. Although HPV vaccination has been proven to be safe and effective in these patients, coverage remains low and should be encouraged. Screening for cervical cancer should be more widely implemented in this population, as recommended in guidelines for other immunosuppressed patients.

FUTURE RESEARCH DIRECTIONS

Catch-up vaccination, vaginal self-sampling screening for HPV detection, and therapeutic vaccination are new options that should be considered.

Concomitant human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and screening for elimination of HPV and cervical cancer

HPV vaccination with concomitant HPV-based screening of young women has been proposed for faster cervical cancer elimination. We describe the baseline results of a population-based trial of this strategy to reduce the incidence of HPV. All 89,547 women born 1994-1999 and resident in the capital region of Sweden were personally invited to concomitant HPV vaccination and HPV screening with 26,125 women (29.2%) enrolled between 2021-05-03 and 2022-12-31. Baseline HPV genotyping of cervical samples from the study participants finds, compared to pre-vaccination prevalences, a strong decline of HPV16 and 18 in birth cohorts previously offered vaccination, some decline for cross-protected HPV types but no decline for HPV types not targeted by vaccines. Our dynamic transmission modelling predicts that the trial could reduce the incidence of high-risk HPV infections among the 1994-1998 cohorts by 62-64% in 3 years. Baseline results are prevalences of HPV infection, validated transmission model projections, and power estimates for evaluating HPV incidence reductions at follow-up (+/-0.1% with 99.9% confidence). In conclusion, concomitant HPV vaccination and HPV screening appears to be a realistic option for faster cervical cancer elimination. Clinicaltrials.gov identifier: NCT04910802; EudraCT number: 2020-001169-34.

Inclusion of marginalized populations in HPV vaccine modeling: A systematic review

OBJECTIVE

Models simulating the potential impacts of Human Papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine have been used globally to guide vaccination policies and programs. We sought to understand how and why marginalized populations have been incorporated into HPV vaccine simulation models.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic search of PubMed, CINAHL, Scopus, and Embase to identify studies using simulation models of HPV vaccination incorporating one or more marginalized population through stratification or subgroup analysis. We extracted data on study characteristics and described these overall and by included marginalized groups.

RESULTS

We identified 36 studies that met inclusion criteria, which modeled vaccination in 21 countries. Models included men who have sex with men (MSM; k = 16), stratification by HIV status (k = 9), race/ethnicity (k = 6), poverty (k = 5), rurality (k = 4), and female sex workers (k = 1). When evaluating for a marginalized group (k = 10), HPV vaccination was generally found to be cost-effective, including for MSM, individuals living with HIV, and rural populations. In studies evaluating equity in cancer prevention (k = 9), HPV vaccination generally advanced equity, but this was sensitive to differences in HPV vaccine uptake and use of absolute or relative measures of inequities. Only one study assessed the impact of an intervention promoting HPV vaccine uptake.

DISCUSSION

Incorporating marginalized populations into decision models can provide valuable insights to guide decision making and improve equity in cancer prevention. More research is needed to understand the equity impact of HPV vaccination on cancer outcomes among marginalized groups. Research should emphasize implementation - including identifying and evaluating specific interventions to increase HPV vaccine uptake.

State of the science and future directions for research on HIV and cancer: Summary of a joint workshop sponsored by IARC and NCI

An estimated 38 million people live with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) worldwide and are at excess risk for multiple cancer types. Elevated cancer risks in people living with HIV (PLWH) are driven primarily by increased exposure to carcinogens, most notably oncogenic viruses acquired through shared transmission routes, plus acceleration of viral carcinogenesis by HIV-related immunosuppression. In the era of widespread antiretroviral therapy (ART), life expectancy of PLWH has increased, with cancer now a leading cause of co-morbidity and death. Furthermore, the types of cancers occurring among PLWH are shifting over time and vary in their relative burden in different parts of the world. In this context, the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) and the US National Cancer Institute (NCI) convened a meeting in September 2022 of multinational and multidisciplinary experts to focus on cancer in PLWH. This report summarizes the proceedings, including a review of the state of the science of cancer descriptive epidemiology, etiology, molecular tumor characterization, primary and secondary prevention, treatment disparities and survival in PLWH around the world. A consensus of key research priorities and recommendations in these domains is also presented.

Joint modeling HIV and HPV using a new hybrid agent-based network and compartmental simulation technique

Persons living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) have a disproportionately higher burden of human papillomavirus infection (HPV)-related cancers. Causal factors include both behavioral and biological. While pharmaceutical and care support interventions help address biological risk of coinfection, as social conditions are common drivers of behaviors, structural interventions are key part of behavioral interventions. Our objective is to develop a joint HIV-HPV model to evaluate the contribution of each factor, to subsequently inform intervention analyses. While compartmental modeling is sufficient for faster spreading HPV, network modeling is suitable for slower spreading HIV. However, using network modeling for jointly modeling HIV and HPV can generate computational complexities given their vastly varying disease epidemiology and disease burden across sub-population groups. We applied a recently developed mixed agent-based compartmental (MAC) simulation technique, which simulates persons with at least one slower spreading disease and their immediate contacts as agents in a network, and all other persons including those with faster spreading diseases in a compartmental model, with an evolving contact network algorithm maintaining the dynamics between the two models. We simulated HIV and HPV in the U.S. among heterosexual female, heterosexual male, and men who have sex with men (men only and men and women) (MSM), sub-populations that mix but have varying HIV burden, and cervical cancer among women. We conducted numerical analyses to evaluate the contribution of behavioral and biological factors to risk of cervical cancer among women with HIV. The model outputs for HIV, HPV, and cervical cancer compared well with surveillance estimates. Model estimates for relative prevalence of HPV (1.67 times) and relative incidence of cervical cancer (3.6 times), among women with HIV compared to women without, were also similar to that reported in observational studies in the literature. The fraction attributed to biological factors ranged from 22-38% for increased HPV prevalence and 80% for increased cervical cancer incidence, the remaining attributed to behavioral. The attribution of both behavioral and biological factors to increased HPV prevalence and cervical cancer incidence suggest the need for behavioral, structural, and pharmaceutical interventions. Validity of model results related to both individual and joint disease metrics serves as proof-of-concept of the MAC simulation technique. Understanding the contribution of behavioral and biological factors of risk helps inform interventions. Future work can expand the model to simulate sexual and care behaviors as functions of social conditions to jointly evaluate behavioral, structural, and pharmaceutical interventions for HIV and cervical cancer prevention.

Confronting the human papillomavirus-HIV intersection: Cervical cytology implications for Kenyan women living with HIV

Background

High-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV) is the primary cause of cervical cancer, leading to over 311 000 global deaths, mainly in low- and middle-income countries. Kenyan women living with HIV (WLHIV) face a disproportionate burden of HR-HPV.

Objectives

We determined the prevalence of HR-HPV infections and their association with cervical cytology findings among Kenyan WLHIV.

Method

We conducted a cross-sectional study among WLHIV attending the HIV care and treatment clinic at the Kenyatta National Hospital (KNH), Kenya's national referral hospital. Study nurses collected a cervical sample with a cytobrush for HR-HPV genotyping using Gene Xpert® assays and HPV Genotypes 14 Real-TM Quant V67-100FRT. Bivariate analysis explored the associations.

Results

We enrolled 647 WLHIV (mean age of 42.8 years), with 97.2% on antiretroviral therapy (ART) and 79% with a suppressed viral load (< 50 copies/mL plasma). The prevalence of any and vaccine-preventable HR-HPV was 34.6% and 29.4%, respectively, with HPV 52 being the most common genotype (13.4%). Among WLHIV with HR-HPV infections, 21.4% had abnormal cervical cytology. Women with multiple HR-HPV infections were more likely to have abnormal cytology compared to those with single HR-HPV infections (34.9 vs 9.3%, adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 6.2, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.7-14.1, P = 0.001). Women with HR-HPV infection (single or multiple) were more likely to be on the second-line ART regimen compared to those without HR-HPV infections (53.1% vs 46.7%, aOR = 2.3, 95% CI: 1.3-4.1, P = 0.005).

Conclusion

Among WLHIV at KNH, abnormal cytology was common and more frequent among women with multiple HR-HPV infections.

State-of-the-Science of human papillomavirus vaccination in women with human immunodeficiency Virus: Summary of a scientific workshop

The burden of cervical cancer is disproportionately distributed globally, with the vast majority of cases occurring in low- and middle-income countries. Women with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) (WWH) are at increased risk of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and cervical cancer as compared to HIV-negative individuals. HPV vaccination remains a priority in regions with a high burden of cervical cancer and high HIV prevalence. With HPV vaccines becoming more accessible, optimal use beyond the initial World Health Organization-recommended target population of 9 to 14-year-old girls is an important question. In March 2022, a group of experts in epidemiology, immunology, and vaccinology convened to discuss the state-of-the-science of HPV vaccination in WWH. This report summarizes the proceedings: review of HIV epidemiology and its intersection with cervical cancer burden, immunology, HPV vaccination including reduced-dose schedules and experience with other vaccines in people with HIV (PWH), HPV vaccination strategies and knowledge gaps, and outstanding research questions. Studies of HPV vaccine effectiveness among WWH, including duration of protection, are limited. Until data from ongoing research is available, the current recommendation for WWH remains for a multi-dose HPV vaccination regimen. A focus of the discussion included the potential impact of HIV acquisition following HPV vaccination. With no data currently existing for HPV vaccines and limited information from non-HPV vaccines, this question requires further research. Implementation research on optimal HPV vaccine delivery approaches for WWH and other priority populations is also urgently needed.

Living with HIV and Getting Vaccinated: A Narrative Review

After 40 years of its appearance, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection remains a leading public health challenge worldwide. Since the introduction of antiretroviral treatment (ART), HIV infection has become a chronic condition, and people living with HIV could have life expectancies close to those of the general population. People with HIV often have an increased risk of infection or experience more severe morbidity following exposure to vaccine-preventable diseases. Nowadays, several vaccines are available against bacteria and viruses. However, national and international vaccination guidelines for people with HIV are heterogeneous, and not every vaccine is included. For these reasons, we aimed to perform a narrative review about the vaccinations available for adults living with HIV, reporting the most updated studies performed for each vaccine among this population. We performed a comprehensive literature search through electronic databases (Pubmed-MEDLINE and Embase) and search engines (Google Scholar). We included English peer-reviewed publications (articles and reviews) on HIV and vaccination. Despite widespread use and guideline recommendations, few vaccine trials have been conducted in people with HIV. In addition, not all vaccines are recommended for people with HIV, especially for those with low CD4 cells count. Clinicians should carefully collect the history of vaccinations and patients' acceptance and preferences and regularly check the presence of antibodies for vaccine-preventable pathogens.

Mathematical Models for Evaluating Effectiveness and Cost-Effectiveness of Cervical Cancer Control Policies in Populations Including Women Living With Human Immunodeficiency Virus: A Scoping Review

OBJECTIVES

Mathematical modeling is increasingly used to inform cervical cancer control policies, and model-based evaluations of such policies in women living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) are an emerging research area. We did a scoping review of published literature to identify research gaps and inform future work in this field.

METHODS

We systematically searched literature up to April 2022 and included mathematical modeling studies evaluating the effectiveness or cost-effectiveness of cervical cancer prevention strategies in populations including women living with HIV. We extracted information on prevention strategies and modeling approaches.

RESULTS

We screened 1504 records and included 22 studies, almost half of which focused on South Africa. We found substantial between-study heterogeneity in terms of strategies assessed and modeling approaches used. Fourteen studies evaluated cervical cancer screening strategies, 7 studies assessed human papillomavirus vaccination (with or without screening), and 1 study evaluated the impact of HIV control measures on cervical cancer incidence and mortality. Thirteen conducted cost-effectiveness analyses. Markov cohort state-transition models were used most commonly (n = 12). Most studies (n = 17) modeled the effect of HIV by creating HIV-related health states. Thirteen studies performed model calibration, but 11 did not report the calibration methods used. Only 1 study stated that model code was available upon request.

CONCLUSIONS

Few model-based evaluations of cervical cancer control strategies have specifically considered women living with HIV. Improvements in model transparency, by sharing information and making model code publicly available, could facilitate the utility of these evaluations for other high disease-burden countries, where they are needed for assisting policy makers.