Modeling the risk of invasion and spread of Tuta absoluta in Africa

Evaluating the mitochondrial genomic diversity, global distribution and niche overlap of two invasive Phthorimaea species

This study sought to evaluate the genetic diversity of two invasive Phthorimaea species (Phthorimaea operculella Zeller and Phthorimaea absoluta Meyrick), and identify potential niche overlap of both species. The complete mitogenomes of P. operculella and P. absoluta were sequenced and compared. Furthermore, the diversity within the family Gelechiidae was assessed. Subsequently, two species distribution models (MaxEnt and BIOCLIM) were used to identify niche overlaps of both species globally. The complete mitogenomes of both species were similar in size and structure, with a pairwise identity of 92.3%. The models showed a niche overlap of both species and revealed areas of marginal to high suitability for both pests in countries where they have not been reported. Therefore, these results present a compelling case for a deeper genetic and ecological investigation of the Gelechiidae family for taxonomic harmonization, an early warning for surveillance, stricter phytosanitary considerations and preventive management against the spread of the pests.

Insights and challenges of insecticide resistance modelling in malaria vectors: a review

BACKGROUND

Malaria is one of the most devastating tropical diseases, resulting in loss of lives each year, especially in children under the age of 5 years. Malaria burden, related deaths and stall in the progress against malaria transmission is evident, particularly in countries that have moderate or high malaria transmission. Hence, mitigating malaria spread requires information on the distribution of vectors and the drivers of insecticide resistance (IR). However, owing to the impracticality in establishing the critical need for real-world information at every location, modelling provides an informed best guess for such information. Therefore, this review examines the various methodologies used to model spatial, temporal and spatio-temporal patterns of IR within populations of malaria vectors, incorporating pest-biology parameters, adopted ecological principles, and the associated modelling challenges.

METHODS

The review focused on the period ending March 2023 without imposing restrictions on the initial year of publication, and included articles sourced from PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus. It was also limited to publications that deal with modelling of IR distribution across spatial and temporal dimensions and excluded articles solely focusing on insecticide susceptibility tests or articles not published in English. After rigorous selection, 33 articles met the review's elibility criteria and were subjected to full-text screening.

RESULTS

Results show the popularity of Bayesian geostatistical approaches, and logistic and static models, with limited adoption of dynamic modelling approaches for spatial and temporal IR modelling. Furthermore, our review identifies the availability of surveillance data and scarcity of comprehensive information on the potential drivers of IR as major impediments to developing holistic models of IR evolution.

CONCLUSIONS

The review notes that incorporating pest-biology parameters, and ecological principles into IR models, in tandem with fundamental ecological concepts, potentially offers crucial insights into the evolution of IR. The results extend our knowledge of IR models that provide potentially accurate results, which can be translated into policy recommendations to combat the challenge of IR in malaria control.

Population dynamics and insecticide resistance in Tuta absoluta (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae), an invasive pest on tomato in Kenya

Tuta absoluta feeds on solanaceous plants with preference on tomato. Management of the pest is mostly with chemical insecticides. This study identified insecticide resistant populations and predicted resistance to insecticides. Insecticide resistance development was modelled using system thinking, and system dynamics approaches. The model showed the pest resistance development is alarming with an exponential increase of the resistance strength mostly in recent years. Furthermore, we used seven insecticide-resistance gene markers to resolve the population structure and genetic differentiation of insecticide-resistant populations in Kenya. The genes for resistance (knockdown resistance (kdr) mutations, acetylcholinesterase (AChE) and voltage gated sodium channel (para)) were detected in all populations. Population structure analyses separated T. absoluta populations into three genetic clusters with resistant genes that are interconnected. A better insight on the population dynamics and the genetic structure T. absoluta resistant genes in Kenya will help estimate resistance strength and determine the most effective pest control strategies.

A Fuzzy-Based Model to Predict the Spatio-Temporal Performance of the Dolichogenidea gelechiidivoris Natural Enemy against Tuta absoluta under Climate Change

The South American tomato pinworm, Tuta absoluta, causes up to 100% tomato crop losses. As Tuta absoluta is non-native to African agroecologies and lacks efficient resident natural enemies, the microgastrine koinobiont solitary oligophagous larval endoparasitoid, Dolichogenidea gelechiidivoris (Marsh) (Syn.: Apanteles gelechiidivoris Marsh) (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) was released for classical biological control. This study elucidates the current and future spatio-temporal performance of D. gelechiidivoris against T. absoluta in tomato cropping systems using a fuzzy logic modelling approach. Specifically, the study considers the presence of the host and the host crop, as well as the parasitoid reproductive capacity, as key variables. Results show that the fuzzy algorithm predicted the performance of the parasitoid (in terms of net reproductive rate (R0)), with a low root mean square error (RMSE) value (<0.90) and a considerably high R2 coefficient (=0.98), accurately predicting the parasitoid performance over time and space. Under the current climatic scenario, the parasitoid is predicted to perform well in all regions throughout the year, except for the coastal region. Under the future climatic scenario, the performance of the parasitoid is projected to improve in all regions throughout the year. Overall, the model sheds light on the varying performance of the parasitoid across different regions of Kenya, and in different seasons, under both current and future climatic scenarios.

The Differential Effects of Tuta absoluta Infestations on the Physiological Processes and Growth of Tomato, Potato, and Eggplant

Tuta absoluta (Meyrick, 1917) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) is a destructive insect pest toward crops and belongs to the Solanaceae family. Since it was first recorded in South Africa in 2016, the pest has spread extensively and caused tremendous damage to field and tunnel-grown tomato crops. This study aimed to investigate how T. absoluta affects the growth and physiology of three Solanaceae plant species: tomato, potato, and eggplant. These three crops were infested with L1 instar larvae, and their growth and physiology were assessed during insect feeding. The damage to the infested tomato host plant was severe, with T. absoluta destroying 100% of the plants. The tomato plants were distorted 15 days after infestation, that is, before the fruit set. For potato, the defoliation was moderate, but the infested plants produced fewer tubers compared to the uninfested host plants. Eggplant had fewer visible signs of feeding, resulting in no significant difference between the infested and uninfested host plants in terms of growth and physiological functions. Infested tomato and potato plants had stagnant growth, fewer and damaged leaves, a reduced chlorophyll content, a reduced photosynthesis rate, a poor transpiration rate, poor water conductance, and poor intercellular carbon dioxide concentrations. This study closes the knowledge gap on the morphological (growth) and physiological responses of different Solanaceae species to T. absoluta infestation, and it also demonstrates the differential risk of T. absoluta infestations in the production of tomato, potato, and eggplant.

Insect pest scenario in Uttarakhand Himalayas, India, under changing climatic conditions

The Himalayan mountains are early indicators of climate change, wherein slight changes in climate can lead to a drastic variation in faunal diversity, distribution, invasion of fauna into higher altitudes, rapid population growth, shortening of life cycle and increased number of overwintering species. The insects best represent the faunal diversity. In recent years, due to variation in pattern of rainfall and temperature regimes, several insect pests have moved northwards and are posing great threat to hill agriculture. Few among them are greenhouse whiteflies, thrips and mites in protected cultivation system; blister beetles on flowers of cereals, pulses and oilseeds; invasive insect pests like fall armyworm of maize and tomato pin worm and sporadic pests like grasshoppers that are reaching a status of major key pest in various crops. Keeping in mind the phenomenon of climate change and associated changes in pest population, the present article focuses on emerging insect pest problems in cereals, millets, pulses, oilseeds and vegetables of Indian Himalayas, along with their changing population density with respect to different climatic parameters, the per cent increase in the pest damage over the years and their potential of gaining the status of major pests in near future and causing huge economic losses to hill agriculture.

Prioritization of invasive alien species with the potential to threaten agriculture and biodiversity in Kenya through horizon scanning

Invasive alien species (IAS) rank among the most significant drivers of species extinction and ecosystem degradation resulting in significant impacts on socio-economic development. The recent exponential spread of IAS in most of Africa is attributed to poor border biosecurity due to porous borders that have failed to prevent initial introductions. In addition, countries lack adequate information about potential invasions and have limited capacity to reduce the risk of invasions. Horizon scanning is an approach that prioritises the risks of potential IAS through rapid assessments. A group of 28 subject matter experts used an adapted methodology to assess 1700 potential IAS on a 5-point scale for the likelihood of entry and establishment, potential socio-economic impact, and impact on biodiversity. The individual scores were combined to rank the species according to their overall potential risk for the country. Confidence in individual and overall scores was recorded on a 3-point scale. This resulted in a priority list of 120 potential IAS (70 arthropods, 9 nematodes, 15 bacteria, 19 fungi/chromist, 1 viroid, and 6 viruses). Options for risk mitigation such as full pest risk analysis and detection surveys were suggested for prioritised species while species for which no immediate action was suggested, were added to the plant health risk register and a recommendation was made to regularly monitor the change in risk. By prioritising risks, horizon scanning guides resource allocation to interventions that are most likely to reduce risk and is very useful to National Plant Protection Organisations and other relevant stakeholders.

Electroantennogram and machine learning reveal a volatile blend mediating avoidance behavior by Tuta absoluta females to a wild tomato plant

Tomato cultivation is threatened by the infestation of the nocturnal invasive tomato pinworm, Tuta absoluta. This study was based on field observations that a wild tomato plant, Solanum lycopersicum var. cerasiforme, grown in the Mount Kenya region, Kenya, is less attacked by T. absoluta, unlike the cultivated tomato plants like S. lycopersicum (var. Rambo F1). We hypothesized that the wild tomato plant may be actively avoided by gravid T. absoluta females because of the emission of repellent allelochemical constituents. Therefore, we compared infestation levels by the pest in field monocrops and intercrops of the two tomato genotypes, characterized the headspace volatiles, then determined the compounds detectable by the insect through gas chromatography-linked electroantennography (GC-EAG), and finally performed bioassays using a blend of four EAG-active compounds unique to the wild tomato. We found significant reductions in infestation levels in the monocrop of the wild tomato, and intercrops of wild and cultivated tomato plants compared to the monocrop of the cultivated tomato plant. Quantitative and qualitative differences were noted between volatiles of the wild and cultivated tomato plants, and between day and night volatile collections. The most discriminating compounds between the volatile treatments varied with the variable selection or machine learning methods used. In GC-EAG recordings, 16 compounds including hexanal, (Z)-3-hexenol, α-pinene, β-myrcene, α-phellandrene, β-phellandrene, (E)-β-ocimene, terpinolene, limonene oxide, camphor, citronellal, methyl salicylate, (E)-β-caryophyllene, and others tentatively identified as 3,7,7-Trimethyl-1,3,5-cycloheptatriene, germacrene D and cis-carvenone oxide were detected by antennae of T. absoluta females. Among these EAG-active compounds, (Z)-3-hexenol, α-pinene, α-phellandrene, limonene oxide, camphor, citronellal, (E)-β-caryophyllene and β-phellandrene are in the top 5 discriminating compounds highlighted by the machine learning methods. A blend of (Z)-3-hexenol, camphor, citronellal and limonene oxide detected only in the wild tomato showed dose-dependent repellence to T. absoluta females in wind tunnel. This study provides some groundwork for exploiting the allelochemicals of the wild tomato in the development of novel integrated pest management approaches against T. absoluta.

Identification, Microhabitat, and Ecological Niche Prediction of Two Promising Native Parasitoids of Tuta absoluta in Kenya

Associations between the South American tomato pinworm, Tuta absoluta (Meyrick) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae), and its native parasitoids need to be updated to increase the implementation of pest control strategies. In this study, T. absoluta-infested tomato plants were collected from three regions in Kenya. The emerged parasitoids were identified, and their abundance was correlated with agroecological parameters, viz. cropping systems, and the abundance of the predator Nesidiocoris tenuis Reuter (Hemiptera: Miridae). The study further conducted a habitat suitability prediction for the identified parasitoids. Two parasitoid species, Bracon nigricans (Szépligeti) (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) and Stenomesius sp. near japonicus (Ashmead) (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae) emerged from T. absoluta immature stages, with parasitism rates ranging from 0 to 21% and 0 to 17% respectively. Insecticide application and open field cropping negatively influenced the parasitism by S. sp. nr japonicus. Low occurrence of N. tenuis positively affected B. nigricans parasitism. The predicted occurrence of parasitoid species indicated vast suitable areas for B. nigricans in sub-Saharan Africa, Australia, and South America. Low suitability was observed for S. sp. nr japonicus in Africa. Therefore, native parasitoids, especially B. nigricans could be considered for implementation as a biocontrol agent in the Integrated Pest Management program of T. absoluta.

First Report on CRISPR/Cas9-Based Genome Editing in the Destructive Invasive Pest Tuta Absoluta (Meyrick) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae)

The tomato leaf miner Tuta absoluta (Meyrick) is one of the world’s most destructive pests of tomato, and because of its severe economic impacts, as well as the development of pesticide resistance, the species has been intensively studied, especially in regard to the identification of targets for T. absoluta control. However, functional genomic studies of T. absoluta have been constrained by a lack of effective genetic tools. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to develop a CRISPR/Cas9 zygote microinjection protocol for generating heritable mutations in T. absoluta, using the ommochrome synthesis gene cinnabar as an easily evaluated target gene. The injection of fertilised eggs with Cas9 protein and four sgRNAs, which targeted cinnabar exon 3, resulted in a mutagenesis rate of 31.9% for eggs reaching adulthood, and cinnabar mutagenesis resulted in either red or mosaic eye colour phenotypes. As such, this study is the first to report a complete and detailed CRISPR/Cas9 workflow for the efficient genome editing of the globally important invasive pest T. absoluta. The application of this robust genome-editing tool to T. absoluta will greatly facilitate the discovery of suitable RNAi control targets and the subsequent development of novel control strategies.

Chromatin-Remodelling ATPases ISWI and BRM Are Essential for Reproduction in the Destructive Pest Tuta absoluta

The tomato leaf miner (Tuta absoluta) is one of the top 20 plant pests worldwide. We cloned and identified the chromatin-remodelling ATPase genes ISWI and BRM by RACE and bioinformatic analysis, respectively; used RT-qPCR to examine their expression patterns during different life cycle stages; and elucidated their roles in insect reproduction using double-stranded RNA injections. The full-length cDNA of TaISWI was 3428 bp and it encoded a 1025-aa polypeptide. The partial-length cDNA of TaBRM was 3457 bp and it encoded a 1030-aa polypeptide. TaISWI and TaBRM were upregulated at the egg stage. Injection of TaISWI or TaBRM dsRNA at the late pupa stage significantly inhibited adult ovary development and reduced fecundity, hatchability, and longevity in the adult females. To the best of our knowledge, the present study was the first to perform molecular characterisations of two chromatin-remodelling ATPase genes and clarify their roles in T. absoluta fecundity. Chromatin-remodelling ATPases are potential RNAi targets for the control of T. absoluta and other insect pests. The present study was also the first to demonstrate the feasibility of reproductive inhibitory RNAi as a putative approach for the suppression of T. absoluta and other Lepidopteran insect populations.

Thermal Requirements and Life Table Parameters of Tomato Leaf Miner Tuta absoluta (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) in Egypt

&lt;b&gt;Background and Objective:&lt;/b&gt; The tomato leaf miner, &lt;i&gt;Tuta absoluta&lt;/i&gt; (Meyrick) is being a serious pest to tomato cultivations in Egypt since 2009. The present study was carried out to calculate the developmental parameters of insects based on temperature degree. &lt;b&gt;Materials and Methods:&lt;/b&gt; The influence of 3 tested temperatures (20, 24, 28°C) were examined to evaluate its effect on the developmental stages of &lt;i&gt;T. absoluta&lt;/i&gt;. Developmental thresholds and needed heat units for insect stages were mathematically calculated according to developmental rates. &lt;b&gt;Results:&lt;/b&gt; Developmental threshold for egg stage and mean thermal units were calculated to be 7°C and 86.2 DD's. The developmental threshold for the larval stage was 10°C, while mean thermal units were calculated to be 310.8 DD's. Percentages mortality of larval stage were 52, 74, 74 and 100% at 20, 24, 28 and 32°C, respectively. For the pupal stage developmental threshold and mean thermal units required for completing the pupal stage was 11.2°C and 132.2 DD's. For an adult, zero of the developmental threshold female and of male were 11.2 and 9.8°C, respectively. The mean required heat units for female and male was 142.3 and 136.7 DD's Life table parameters such as net Reproduction Rate (R&lt;sub&gt;◦&lt;/sub&gt;), Mean Generation Time (Gt), Intrinsic Rate of Increase (r&lt;sub&gt;m&lt;/sub&gt;), Finite Rate of Increase (λ) and Population Double Time (Dt) were calculated at three tested temperatures. &lt;b&gt;Conclusion:&lt;/b&gt; Estimating thermal heat units of &lt;i&gt;T. absoluta&lt;/i&gt; help in predicting the field generations of the insect and improve planning the integrated pest management.

Biological invasion risk assessment of Tuta absoluta: mechanistic versus correlative methods

The capacity to assess invasion risk from potential crop pests before invasion of new regions globally would be invaluable, but this requires the ability to predict accurately their potential geographic range and relative abundance in novel areas. This may be unachievable using de facto standard correlative methods as shown for the South American tomato pinworm Tuta absoluta, a serious insect pest of tomato native to South America. Its global invasive potential was not identified until after rapid invasion of Europe, followed by Africa and parts of Asia where it has become a major food security problem on solanaceous crops. Early prospective assessment of its potential range is possible using physiologically based demographic modeling that would have identified knowledge gaps in T. absoluta biology at low temperatures. Physiologically based demographic models (PBDMs) realistically capture the weather-driven biology in a mechanistic way allowing evaluation of invasive risk in novel areas and climes including climate change. PBDMs explain the biological bases for the geographic distribution, are generally applicable to species of any taxa, are not limited to terrestrial ecosystems, and hence can be extended to support ecological risk modeling in aquatic ecosystems. PBDMs address a lack of unified general methods for assessing and managing invasive species that has limited invasion biology from becoming a more predictive science.

Water Balance and Desiccation Tolerance of the Invasive South American Tomato Pinworm

Temperature and dehydration stress are two major co-occurring environmental stressors threatening the physiology, biochemistry, and ecology of insects. As such, understanding adaptive responses to desiccation stress is critical for predicting climate change impacts, particularly its influence on insect invasions. Here, we assessed water balance and desiccation resistance of the invasive Tuta absoluta (Meyrick, 1917) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae), and infer how eco-physiology shapes its niche. We measured basal body water and lipid content, water loss rates (WLRs), and desiccation resistance in larvae (second to fourth instars) and adults. Body -water, -lipid, and WLRs significantly varied across life stages. Second instars recorded the lowest while fourth instars exhibited the highest body water and lipid content. Adult body water and lipid content were higher than second and third instars and lower than fourth instars while proportion of body water and lipid contents were highest in adults and second larval instars respectively. Water loss rates were significantly highest in fourth-instar larvae compared to other life stages, but differences among stages were less apparent at longer exposure durations (48 h). Desiccation resistance assays showed that second instars had greatest mortality while fourth-instar larvae and adults were the most desiccation tolerant. Our results show that T. absoluta fourth-instar larvae and adults are the most resilient developmental stages and potentially contribute most to the invasion success of the pest in arid environments. Incorporation of these species-specific eco-physiological traits in predictive models can help refine invasive species potential spread under changing climates.

Cold hardiness of the South American tomato pinworm Tuta absoluta (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae): both larvae and adults are chill-susceptible

BACKGROUND

For many insects, including invasive species, overwintering survival is achieved behaviourally (e.g. through migration) or physiologically by entering diapause, a state of arrested physiological development that may be accompanied with depressed supercooling points (SCPs). Diapause allows in situ adaptation to adverse environmental conditions, providing sufficient parent propagules for insect pest proliferation when optimal conditions resurface. This phenomenon has however not been observed in the invasive South American tomato pinworm Tuta absoluta in its Mediterranean invaded areas. Moreover, no studies have looked at its overwintering survival in sub-Saharan Africa. Here, we thus investigated the cold hardiness of Tuta absoluta larvae and adults to better explain its local overwintering adaptation strategy.

RESULTS

Larval lower lethal temperatures ranged from -1 to -17 °C for 0.5 to 4 h durations. Adults showed lower temperature activity limits than larvae albeit freeze strategy experiments showed neither survived internal freezing. Fasting and dehydration pre-treatment generally depressed SCPs, although asymmetrically, conferring more negative SCPs for larvae. Ramping rates, synonymic to diurnal temperature changes also significantly affected SCPs while, inoculative freezing significantly compromised freezing temperatures in both larvae and adults.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that (i) Tuta absoluta larvae and adults are chill-susceptible and may successfully overwinter, (ii) larvae appear more cold hardy than adults and (iii) ecological factors e.g. inoculative freezing, cooling rates, feeding- and hydration-status may affect cold hardiness. These results are important in determining species range limits, population phenology, modelling pest risk status and allows temporal life-stage specific targeting of management strategies.

Tuta absoluta (Meyrick) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) on the "Offensive" in Africa: Prospects for Integrated Management Initiatives

The South American tomato pinworm Tuta absoluta (Meyrick) has aggressively invaded the African continent. Since its first detection in North Africa in Morocco and Tunisia in 2008, it has successfully invaded the entire southern, eastern and western Africa, where it has been on the offensive, causing significant damage to Solanaceous food crops. While control of this prolific invader is primarily based on conventional synthetic pesticides, this form of control is consistently losing societal approval owing to (1) pesticide resistance development and consequential loss of field efficacy; (2) growing public health concerns; (3) environmental contamination and loss of biological diversity and its associated ecological services; and (4) unsustainable costs, particularly for resource-poor African farmers. As such, more ecologically sound pest management strategies, e.g., the use of natural substances (NSs), may offer a more sustainable approach to tackling this offensive. A systematic literature search through digital libraries and online databases (JSTOR, PubMed, Web of Science, SCOPUS and Google Scholar) was conducted using predetermined keywords on T. absoluta, e.g., South American tomato pinworm. We use this to explain the invasion of T. absoluta in Africa, citing mechanisms facilitating African invasion and exploring the potential of its control using diverse biological control agents, natural and low-risk substances. Specifically, we explore how botanicals, entomopathogens, semiochemicals, predators, parasitoids, host plant resistance, sterile insect technique and others have been spatially employed to control T. absoluta and discuss the potential of these control agents in African landscapes using more integrated approaches. We discuss the use of NSs as assets to general insect pest control, some potential associated liabilities and explain the potential use and barriers to adoption in African systems from a legislative, economic, ecological and social standpoint.

Modeling Commodity Flow in the Context of Invasive Species Spread: Study of Tuta absoluta in Nepal

Trade and transport of goods is widely accepted as a primary pathway for the introduction and dispersal of invasive species. However, understanding commodity flows remains a challenge owing to its complex nature, unavailability of quality data, and lack of systematic modeling methods. A robust network-based approach is proposed to model seasonal flow of agricultural produce and examine its role in pest spread. It is applied to study the spread of Tuta absoluta, a devastating pest of tomato in Nepal. Further, the long-term establishment potential of the pest and its economic impact on the country are assessed. Our analysis indicates that regional trade plays an important role in the spread of T. absoluta. The economic impact of this invasion could range from USD 17-25 million. The proposed approach is generic and particularly suited for data-poor scenarios.

Thermal plasticity in the invasive south American tomato pinworm Tuta absoluta (Meyrick) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae)

South American tomato pinworm, Tuta absoluta (Meyrick) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) is a devastating invasive global insect pest of tomato, Solanum lycopersicum (Solanaceae). In nature, pests face multiple overlapping environmental stressors, which may significantly influence survival. To cope with rapidly changing environments, insects often employ a suite of mechanisms at both acute and chronic time-scales, thereby improving fitness at sub-optimal thermal environments. For T. absoluta, physiological responses to transient thermal variability remain under explored. Moreso, environmental effects and physiological responses may differ across insect life stages and this can have implications for population dynamics. Against this background, we investigated short and long term plastic responses to temperature of T. absoluta larvae (4th instar) and adults (24-48 h old) from field populations. We measured traits of temperature tolerance vis critical thermal limits [critical thermal minima (CT_min) and maxima (CT_max)], heat knockdown time (HKDT), chill coma recovery time (CCRT) and supercooling points (SCP). Our results showed that at the larval stage, Rapid Cold Hardening (RCH) significantly improved CT_min and HKDT but impaired SCP and CCRT. Heat hardening in larvae impaired CT_min, CCRT, SCP, CT_max but not HKDT. In adults, both heat and cold hardening generally impaired CT_min and CT_max, but had no effects on HKDT, SCP and CCRT. Low temperature acclimation significantly improved CT_min and HKDT while marginally compromising CCRT and CT_max, whereas high temperature acclimation had no significant effects on any traits except for HKDT in larvae. Similarly, low and high temperature acclimation had no effects on CT_min, SCPs and CT_max, while high temperature acclimation significantly compromised adult CCRT. Our results show that larvae are more thermally plastic than adults and can shift their thermal tolerance in short and long timescales. The larval plasticity reported here could be advantageous in new envirnments, suggesting an asymmetrical ecological role of larva relative to adults in facilitating T. absoluta invasion.

Assessing the multi-pathway threat from an invasive agricultural pest: Tuta absoluta in Asia

Modern food systems facilitate rapid dispersal of pests and pathogens through multiple pathways. The complexity of spread dynamics and data inadequacy make it challenging to model the phenomenon and also to prepare for emerging invasions. We present a generic framework to study the spatio-temporal spread of invasive species as a multi-scale propagation process over a time-varying network accounting for climate, biology, seasonal production, trade and demographic information. Machine learning techniques are used in a novel manner to capture model variability and analyse parameter sensitivity. We applied the framework to understand the spread of a devastating pest of tomato, Tuta absoluta, in South and Southeast Asia, a region at the frontier of its current range. Analysis with respect to historical invasion records suggests that even with modest self-mediated spread capabilities, the pest can quickly expand its range through domestic city-to-city vegetable trade. Our models forecast that within 5-7 years, Tuta absoluta will invade all major vegetable growing areas of mainland Southeast Asia assuming unmitigated spread. Monitoring high-consumption areas can help in early detection, and targeted interventions at major production areas can effectively reduce the rate of spread.

Role of Modelling in International Crop Research: Overview and Some Case Studies

Crop modelling has the potential to contribute to global food and nutrition security. This paper briefly examines the history of crop modelling by international crop research centres of the CGIAR (formerly Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research but now known simply as CGIAR), whose primary focus is on less developed countries. Basic principles of crop modelling building up to a Genotype × Environment × Management × Socioeconomic (G × E × M × S) paradigm, are explained. Modelling has contributed to better understanding of crop performance and yield gaps, better prediction of pest and insect outbreaks, and improving the efficiency of crop management including irrigation systems and optimization of planting dates. New developments include, for example, use of remote sensed data and mobile phone technology linked to crop management decision support models, data sharing in the new era of big data, and the use of genomic selection and crop simulation models linked to environmental data to help make crop breeding decisions. Socio-economic applications include foresight analysis of agricultural systems under global change scenarios, and the consequences of potential food system shocks are also described. These approaches are discussed in this paper which also calls for closer collaboration among disciplines in order to better serve the crop research and development communities by providing model based recommendations ranging from policy development at the level of governmental agencies to direct crop management support for resource poor farmers.

Assessing the spatial distribution of Tuta absoluta (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) eggs in open-field tomato cultivation through geostatistical analysis

BACKGROUND

The spatial distribution of insects is due to the interaction between individuals and the environment. Knowledge about the within-field pattern of spatial distribution of a pest is critical to planning control tactics, developing efficient sampling plans, and predicting pest damage. The leaf miner Tuta absoluta (Meyrick) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) is the main pest of tomato crops in several regions of the world. Despite the importance of this pest, the pattern of spatial distribution of T. absoluta on open-field tomato cultivation remains unknown. Therefore, this study aimed to characterize the spatial distribution of T. absoluta in 22 commercial open-field tomato cultivations with plants at the three phenological development stages by using geostatistical analysis.

RESULTS

Geostatistical analysis revealed that there was strong evidence for spatially dependent (aggregated) T. absoluta eggs in 19 of the 22 sample tomato cultivations. The maps that were obtained demonstrated the aggregated structure of egg densities at the edges of the crops. Further, T. absoluta was found to accomplish egg dispersal along the rows more frequently than it does between rows.

CONCLUSION

Our results indicate that the greatest egg densities of T. absoluta occur at the edges of tomato crops. These results are discussed in relation to the behavior of T. absoluta distribution within fields and in terms of their implications for improved sampling guidelines and precision targeting control methods that are essential for effective pest monitoring and management. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.