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Hosseini-Sadabadi SA, Rousseau AN, Sadeghian A, Foulon E, Behmel S. A 3D numerical modeling of the links between hydrodynamics, dissolved oxygen, and water temperature of a northern rural-urban shallow lake with two distinct basins. ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT 2023; 195:1198. [PMID: 37698733 DOI: 10.1007/s10661-023-11744-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/09/2023] [Accepted: 08/17/2023] [Indexed: 09/13/2023]
Abstract
A 3D hydrodynamic model (EFDC) was applied to simulate dissolved oxygen (DO) and temperature (T) (two crucial parameters impacting water quality) throughout Lake St. Charles, a rural-urban shallow lake located North of Quebec City, Canada. Model outputs of T and DO corroborate observations at five monitoring stations within the lake. Simulated results indicated annual cycles of turnovers and stratifications and different behaviors for the deep and shallow basins. For the simulated years, the deep basin was stratified in summer and winter, while the shallow basin was mostly mixed throughout the year. The lake heat budget indicates that during summer with a long retention time, the thermal structure of the lake is principally controlled by net radiation, latent, and sensible heat fluxes. For the rest of the year, the inflow (from the main tributary, the Des Hurons River) and outflow are the main drivers of the lake's thermal structure.
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Affiliation(s)
- Seyed Abbas Hosseini-Sadabadi
- Institut national de la recherche scientifique (INRS), Centre Eau Terre Environnement (ETE), 490 De La Couronne, Québec City, Québec, G1K 9A9, Canada.
| | - Alain N Rousseau
- Institut national de la recherche scientifique (INRS), Centre Eau Terre Environnement (ETE), 490 De La Couronne, Québec City, Québec, G1K 9A9, Canada
| | - Amir Sadeghian
- Institut national de la recherche scientifique (INRS), Centre Eau Terre Environnement (ETE), 490 De La Couronne, Québec City, Québec, G1K 9A9, Canada
| | - Etienne Foulon
- Institut national de la recherche scientifique (INRS), Centre Eau Terre Environnement (ETE), 490 De La Couronne, Québec City, Québec, G1K 9A9, Canada
| | - Sonja Behmel
- AGIRO, 433 Rue Delage, Québec City, Québec, G3G 1H4, Canada
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Gong F, Luo L, Li H, Chen L, Zhang R, Wu G, Zhang J, Shi W, Zhang F, Zhang H, Sun T. Quantitative Assessment of Water Quality Improvement by Reducing External Loadings at Lake Erhai, Southwest China. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2023; 20:5038. [PMID: 36981948 PMCID: PMC10048958 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph20065038] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/31/2023] [Revised: 03/03/2023] [Accepted: 03/06/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
To quantitatively evaluate the effects on water quality improvement caused by reducing external loadings entering Lake Erhai through inflow rivers, a one-dimensional hydrodynamic and ecological model (DYRESM-CAEDYM) was set up to simulate the water quality and water level variations. The calibrated and validated model was used to conduct six scenarios for evaluating the water quality responses to different amounts of external loading reduction at Lake Erhai. The results show (1) the total nitrogen (TN) concentration of Lake Erhai will be higher than 0.5 mg/L without any watershed pollution control during April-November 2025, which cannot meet Grade II standard of the China Surface Water Environmental Quality Standards (GB3838-2002). (2) External loading reductions can significantly reduce the concentrations of nutrients and Chla at Lake Erhai. The effects of water quality improvement will be proportional to the reduction rate of external loading reductions. (3) Internal release might be an important source of pollution It needs to be seriously considered as well as external loading for mitigating the eutrophication at Lake Erhai in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Falu Gong
- Institute for Ecological Research and Pollution Control of Plateau Lakes, School of Ecology and Environmental Science, Yunnan University, Kunming 650504, China
| | - Liancong Luo
- Institute for Ecological Research and Pollution Control of Plateau Lakes, School of Ecology and Environmental Science, Yunnan University, Kunming 650504, China
| | - Huiyun Li
- Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China
| | - Lan Chen
- Institute for Ecological Research and Pollution Control of Plateau Lakes, School of Ecology and Environmental Science, Yunnan University, Kunming 650504, China
| | - Rufeng Zhang
- Institute for Ecological Research and Pollution Control of Plateau Lakes, School of Ecology and Environmental Science, Yunnan University, Kunming 650504, China
| | - Guizhu Wu
- Institute for Ecological Research and Pollution Control of Plateau Lakes, School of Ecology and Environmental Science, Yunnan University, Kunming 650504, China
| | - Jian Zhang
- Institute for Ecological Research and Pollution Control of Plateau Lakes, School of Ecology and Environmental Science, Yunnan University, Kunming 650504, China
| | - Weiqiang Shi
- Institute for Ecological Research and Pollution Control of Plateau Lakes, School of Ecology and Environmental Science, Yunnan University, Kunming 650504, China
| | - Fan Zhang
- Institute for Ecological Research and Pollution Control of Plateau Lakes, School of Ecology and Environmental Science, Yunnan University, Kunming 650504, China
| | - Hao Zhang
- Institute for Ecological Research and Pollution Control of Plateau Lakes, School of Ecology and Environmental Science, Yunnan University, Kunming 650504, China
| | - Ting Sun
- Institute for Ecological Research and Pollution Control of Plateau Lakes, School of Ecology and Environmental Science, Yunnan University, Kunming 650504, China
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Dash S, Kalamdhad AS. Systematic bibliographic research on eutrophication-based ecological modelling of aquatic ecosystems through the lens of science mapping. Ecol Modell 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2022.110080] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
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4
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Ecosystem models indicate zooplankton biomass response to nutrient input and climate warming is related to lake size. Ecol Modell 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2021.109837] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/23/2022]
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5
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Nakhaei N, Boegman L, Mehdizadeh M, Loewen M. Three-dimensional biogeochemical modeling of eutrophication in Edmonton stormwater ponds. Ecol Modell 2021. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2021.109684] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
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6
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Huang J, Kong M, Zhang C, Cui Z, Tian F, Gao J. PyAEM: A Python toolkit for aquatic ecosystem modelling. ECOL INFORM 2020. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2020.101134] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
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7
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Andersen TK, Nielsen A, Jeppesen E, Hu F, Bolding K, Liu Z, Søndergaard M, Johansson LS, Trolle D. Predicting ecosystem state changes in shallow lakes using an aquatic ecosystem model: Lake Hinge, Denmark, an example. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2020; 30:e02160. [PMID: 32363772 PMCID: PMC7583379 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2160] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/28/2019] [Revised: 12/26/2019] [Accepted: 03/30/2020] [Indexed: 05/06/2023]
Abstract
In recent years, considerable efforts have been made to restore turbid, phytoplankton-dominated shallow lakes to a clear-water state with high coverage of submerged macrophytes. Various dynamic lake models with simplified physical representations of vertical gradients, such as PCLake, have been used to predict external nutrient load thresholds for such nonlinear regime shifts. However, recent observational studies have questioned the concept of regime shifts by emphasizing that gradual changes are more common than sudden shifts. We investigated if regime shifts would be more gradual if the models account for depth-dependent heterogeneity of the system by including the possibility of vertical gradients in the water column and sediment layers for the entire depth. Hence, bifurcation analysis was undertaken using the 1D hydrodynamic model GOTM, accounting for vertical gradients, coupled to the aquatic ecosystem model PCLake, which is implemented in the framework for aquatic biogeochemical modeling (FABM). First, the model was calibrated and validated against a comprehensive data set covering two consecutive 7-yr periods from Lake Hinge, a shallow, eutrophic Danish lake. The autocalibration program Auto-Calibration Python (ACPy) was applied to achieve a more comprehensive adjustment of model parameters. The model simulations showed excellent agreement with observed data for water temperature, total nitrogen, and nitrate and good agreement for ammonium, total phosphorus, phosphate, and chlorophyll a concentrations. Zooplankton and macrophyte coverage were adequately simulated for the purpose of this study, and in general the GOTM-FABM-PCLake model simulations performed well compared with other model studies. In contrast to previous model studies ignoring depth heterogeneity, our bifurcation analysis revealed that the spatial extent and depth limitation of macrophytes as well as phytoplankton chlorophyll-a responded more gradually over time to a reduction in the external phosphorus load, albeit some hysteresis effects still appeared. In a management perspective, our study emphasizes the need to include depth heterogeneity in the model structure to more correctly determine at which external nutrient load a given lake changes ecosystem state to a clear-water condition.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tobias Kuhlmann Andersen
- Department of BioscienceAarhus University8600SilkeborgDenmark
- Sino‐Danish Center for Education and ResearchUniversity of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100049China
| | - Anders Nielsen
- Department of BioscienceAarhus University8600SilkeborgDenmark
| | - Erik Jeppesen
- Department of BioscienceAarhus University8600SilkeborgDenmark
- Sino‐Danish Center for Education and ResearchUniversity of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100049China
| | - Fenjuan Hu
- Department of BioscienceAarhus University8600SilkeborgDenmark
| | - Karsten Bolding
- Department of BioscienceAarhus University8600SilkeborgDenmark
- Sino‐Danish Center for Education and ResearchUniversity of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100049China
| | - Zhengwen Liu
- Sino‐Danish Center for Education and ResearchUniversity of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100049China
- State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and EnvironmentNanjing Institute of Geography and LimnologyChinese Academy of SciencesNanjing210008China
- Department of EcologyJinan UniversityGuangzhou510632China
| | - Martin Søndergaard
- Department of BioscienceAarhus University8600SilkeborgDenmark
- Sino‐Danish Center for Education and ResearchUniversity of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100049China
| | | | - Dennis Trolle
- Department of BioscienceAarhus University8600SilkeborgDenmark
- Sino‐Danish Center for Education and ResearchUniversity of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100049China
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8
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Study of the limnology of wetlands through a one-dimensional model for assessing the eutrophication levels induced by various pollution sources. Ecol Modell 2020. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.108907] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/23/2022]
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9
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Modeling the Ecological Response of a Temporarily Summer-Stratified Lake to Extreme Heatwaves. WATER 2019. [DOI: 10.3390/w12010094] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Climate extremes, which are steadily increasing in frequency, can have detrimental consequences for lake ecosystems. We used a state-of-the-art, one-dimensional, hydrodynamic-ecosystem model [General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM)-framework for aquatic biogeochemical models (FABM)-PCLake] to determine the influence of extreme climate events on a temperate and temporarily summer stratified lake (Lake Bryrup, Denmark). The model was calibrated (eight years data) and validated (two years data), and the modeled variables generally showed good agreement with observations. Then, a span of extreme warming scenarios was designed based on weather data from the heatwave seen over northern Europe in May–July 2018, mimicking situations of extreme warming returning every year, every three years, and every five years in summer and all year round, respectively. We found only modest impacts of the extreme climate events on nutrient levels, which in some scenarios decreased slightly when looking at the annual mean. The most significant impacts were found for phytoplankton, where summer average chlorophyll a concentrations and cyanobacteria biomass peaks were up to 39% and 58% higher than during baseline, respectively. As a result, the phytoplankton to nutrient ratios increased during the heat wave experiments, reflecting an increased productivity and an increased cycling of nutrients in the pelagic. The phytoplankton blooms occurred up to 15 days earlier and lasted for up to half a month longer during heat wave years relative to the baseline. Our extreme scenarios illustrated and quantified the large impacts of a past heat wave (observed 2018) and may be indicative of the future for many temperate lakes.
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Vinçon-Leite B, Casenave C. Modelling eutrophication in lake ecosystems: A review. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2019; 651:2985-3001. [PMID: 30463149 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.320] [Citation(s) in RCA: 66] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/30/2018] [Revised: 09/24/2018] [Accepted: 09/24/2018] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Eutrophication is one of the main causes of the degradation of lake ecosystems. Its intensification during the last decades has led the stakeholders to seek for water management and restoration solutions, including those based on modelling approaches. This paper presents a review of lake eutrophication modelling, on the basis of a scientific appraisal performed by researchers for the French ministries of Environment and Agriculture. After a brief introduction presenting the scientific context, a bibliography analysis is presented. Then the main results obtained with process-based models are summarized. A synthesis of the scientist recommendations in order to improve the lake eutrophication modelling is finally given before the conclusion.
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Affiliation(s)
- Brigitte Vinçon-Leite
- LEESU Ecole des Ponts ParisTech, AgroParisTech, UPEC 6-8 Avenue Blaise Pascal, 77455, Marne-la-Vallée, France.
| | - Céline Casenave
- INRA, UMR MISTEA - Mathematics, Informatics and STatistics for Environment and Agronomy, 2 place Pierre Viala, 34060, Montpellier, France
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11
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Fenocchi A, Rogora M, Morabito G, Marchetto A, Sibilla S, Dresti C. Applicability of a one-dimensional coupled ecological-hydrodynamic numerical model to future projections in a very deep large lake (Lake Maggiore, Northern Italy/Southern Switzerland). Ecol Modell 2019. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2018.11.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/27/2022]
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12
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Bucak T, Trolle D, Tavşanoğlu ÜN, Çakıroğlu Aİ, Özen A, Jeppesen E, Beklioğlu M. Modeling the effects of climatic and land use changes on phytoplankton and water quality of the largest Turkish freshwater lake: Lake Beyşehir. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2018; 621:802-816. [PMID: 29202291 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.11.258] [Citation(s) in RCA: 52] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/11/2017] [Revised: 11/15/2017] [Accepted: 11/22/2017] [Indexed: 05/12/2023]
Abstract
Climate change and intense land use practices are the main threats to ecosystem structure and services of Mediterranean lakes. Therefore, it is essential to predict the future changes and develop mitigation measures to combat such pressures. In this study, Lake Beyşehir, the largest freshwater lake in the Mediterranean basin, was selected to study the impacts of climate change and various land use scenarios on the ecosystem dynamics of Mediterranean freshwater ecosystems and the services that they provide. For this purpose, we linked catchment model outputs to the two different processed-based lake models: PCLake and GLM-AED, and tested the scenarios of five General Circulation Models, two Representation Concentration Pathways and three different land use scenarios, which enable us to consider the various sources of uncertainty. Climate change and land use scenarios generally predicted strong future decreases in hydraulic and nutrient loads from the catchment to the lake. These changes in loads translated into alterations in water level as well as minor changes in chlorophyll a (Chl-a) concentrations. We also observed an increased abundance of cyanobacteria in both lake models. Total phosphorus, temperature and hydraulic loading were found to be the most important variables determining cyanobacteria biomass. As the future scenarios revealed only minor changes in Chl-a due to the significant decrease in nutrient loads, our results highlight that reduced nutrient loading in a warming world may play a crucial role in offsetting the effects of temperature on phytoplankton growth. However, our results also showed increased abundance of cyanobacteria in the future may threaten ecosystem integrity and may limit drinking water ecosystem services. In addition, extended periods of decreased hydraulic loads from the catchment and increased evaporation may lead to water level reductions and may diminish the ecosystem services of the lake as a water supply for irrigation and drinking water.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tuba Bucak
- Limnology Laboratory, Department of Biological Sciences, Middle East Technical University, Çankaya, 06800 Ankara, Turkey.
| | - Dennis Trolle
- Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Vejlsøvej 25, 8600 Silkeborg, Denmark; Sino-Danish Centre for Education and Research (SDC), Beijing, China
| | - Ü Nihan Tavşanoğlu
- Limnology Laboratory, Department of Biological Sciences, Middle East Technical University, Çankaya, 06800 Ankara, Turkey
| | - A İdil Çakıroğlu
- Limnology Laboratory, Department of Biological Sciences, Middle East Technical University, Çankaya, 06800 Ankara, Turkey
| | - Arda Özen
- Limnology Laboratory, Department of Biological Sciences, Middle East Technical University, Çankaya, 06800 Ankara, Turkey; Department of Forest Engineering, Çankırı Karatekin University, 18200 Çankırı, Turkey
| | - Erik Jeppesen
- Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Vejlsøvej 25, 8600 Silkeborg, Denmark; Sino-Danish Centre for Education and Research (SDC), Beijing, China
| | - Meryem Beklioğlu
- Limnology Laboratory, Department of Biological Sciences, Middle East Technical University, Çankaya, 06800 Ankara, Turkey; Kemal Kurdaş Ecological Research and Training Station, Lake Eymir, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey.
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Snortheim CA, Hanson PC, McMahon KD, Read JS, Carey CC, Dugan HA. Meteorological drivers of hypolimnetic anoxia in a eutrophic, north temperate lake. Ecol Modell 2017. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.10.014] [Citation(s) in RCA: 43] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/20/2022]
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14
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Trolle D, Spigel B, Hamilton DP, Norton N, Sutherland D, Plew D, Allan MG. Application of a three-dimensional water quality model as a decision support tool for the management of land-use changes in the catchment of an oligotrophic lake. ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2014; 54:479-493. [PMID: 24943814 DOI: 10.1007/s00267-014-0306-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/29/2013] [Accepted: 05/29/2014] [Indexed: 06/03/2023]
Abstract
While expansion of agricultural land area and intensification of agricultural practices through irrigation and fertilizer use can bring many benefits to communities, intensifying land use also causes more contaminants, such as nutrients and pesticides, to enter rivers, lakes, and groundwater. For lakes such as Benmore in the Waitaki catchment, South Island, New Zealand, an area which is currently undergoing agricultural intensification, this could potentially lead to marked degradation of water clarity as well as effects on ecological, recreational, commercial, and tourism values. We undertook a modeling study to demonstrate science-based options for consideration of agricultural intensification in the catchment of Lake Benmore. Based on model simulations of a range of potential future nutrient loadings, it is clear that different areas within Lake Benmore may respond differently to increased nutrient loadings. A western arm (Ahuriri) could be most severely affected by land-use changes and associated increases in nutrient loadings. Lake-wide annual averages of an eutrophication indicator, the trophic level index (TLI) were derived from simulated chlorophyll a, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus concentrations. Results suggest that the lake will shift from oligotrophic (TLI = 2-3) to eutrophic (TLI = 4-5) as external loadings are increased eightfold over current baseline loads, corresponding to the potential land-use intensification in the catchment. This study provides a basis for use of model results in a decision-making process by outlining the environmental consequences of a series of land-use management options, and quantifying nutrient load limits needed to achieve defined trophic state objectives.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dennis Trolle
- Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Vejlsøvej 25, PO Box 314, 8600, Silkeborg, Denmark,
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15
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Nielsen A, Trolle D, Bjerring R, Søndergaard M, Olesen JE, Janse JH, Mooij WM, Jeppesen E. Effects of climate and nutrient load on the water quality of shallow lakes assessed through ensemble runs by PCLake. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2014; 24:1926-1944. [PMID: 29185663 DOI: 10.1890/13-0790.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
Complex ecological models are used to predict the consequences of anticipated future changes in climate and nutrient loading for lake water quality. These models may, however, suffer from nonuniqueness in that various sets of model parameter values may yield equally satisfactory representations of the system being modeled, but when applied in future scenarios these sets of values may divert considerably in their simulated outcomes. Compilation of an ensemble of model runs allows us to account for simulation variability arising from model parameter estimates. Thus, we propose a new approach for aquatic ecological models creating a more robust prediction of future water quality. We used our ensemble approach in an application of the widely used PCLake model for Danish shallow Lake Arreskov, which during the past two decades has demonstrated frequent shifts between turbid and clear water states. Despite marked variability, the span of our ensemble runs encapsulated 70–90% of the observed variation in lake water quality. The model exercise demonstrates that future warming and increased nutrient loading lead to lower probability of a clear water, vegetation-rich state and greater likelihood of cyanobacteria dominance. In a 6.0°C warming scenario, for instance, the current nutrient loading of nitrogen and phosphorus must be reduced by about 75% to maintain the present ecological state of Lake Arreskov, but even in a near-future 2.0°C warming scenario, a higher probability of a turbid, cyanobacteria-dominated state is predicted. As managers may wish to determine the probability of achieving a certain ecological state, our proposed ensemble approach facilitates new ways of communicating future stressor impacts.
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Missaghi S, Hondzo M, Melching C. Three-dimensional lake water quality modeling: sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY 2013; 42:1684-1698. [PMID: 25602409 DOI: 10.2134/jeq2013.04.0120] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
Two sensitivity and uncertainty analysis methods are applied to a three-dimensional coupled hydrodynamic-ecological model (ELCOM-CAEDYM) of a morphologically complex lake. The primary goals of the analyses are to increase confidence in the model predictions, identify influential model parameters, quantify the uncertainty of model prediction, and explore the spatial and temporal variabilities of model predictions. The influence of model parameters on four model-predicted variables (model output) and the contributions of each of the model-predicted variables to the total variations in model output are presented. The contributions of predicted water temperature, dissolved oxygen, total phosphorus, and algal biomass contributed 3, 13, 26, and 58% of total model output variance, respectively. The fraction of variance resulting from model parameter uncertainty was calculated by two methods and used for evaluation and ranking of the most influential model parameters. Nine out of the top 10 parameters identified by each method agreed, but their ranks were different. Spatial and temporal changes of model uncertainty were investigated and visualized. Model uncertainty appeared to be concentrated around specific water depths and dates that corresponded to significant storm events. The results suggest that spatial and temporal variations in the predicted water quality variables are sensitive to the hydrodynamics of physical perturbations such as those caused by stream inflows generated by storm events. The sensitivity and uncertainty analyses identified the mineralization of dissolved organic carbon, sediment phosphorus release rate, algal metabolic loss rate, internal phosphorus concentration, and phosphorus uptake rate as the most influential model parameters.
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Smits JGC, van Beek JKL. ECO: a generic eutrophication model including comprehensive sediment-water interaction. PLoS One 2013; 8:e68104. [PMID: 23844160 PMCID: PMC3700902 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0068104] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/05/2013] [Accepted: 05/24/2013] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
The content and calibration of the comprehensive generic 3D eutrophication model ECO for water and sediment quality is presented. Based on a computational grid for water and sediment, ECO is used as a tool for water quality management to simulate concentrations and mass fluxes of nutrients (N, P, Si), phytoplankton species, detrital organic matter, electron acceptors and related substances. ECO combines integral simulation of water and sediment quality with sediment diagenesis and closed mass balances. Its advanced process formulations for substances in the water column and the bed sediment were developed to allow for a much more dynamic calculation of the sediment-water exchange fluxes of nutrients as resulting from steep concentration gradients across the sediment-water interface than is possible with other eutrophication models. ECO is to more accurately calculate the accumulation of organic matter and nutrients in the sediment, and to allow for more accurate prediction of phytoplankton biomass and water quality in response to mitigative measures such as nutrient load reduction. ECO was calibrated for shallow Lake Veluwe (The Netherlands). Due to restoration measures this lake underwent a transition from hypertrophic conditions to moderately eutrophic conditions, leading to the extensive colonization by submerged macrophytes. ECO reproduces observed water quality well for the transition period of ten years. The values of its process coefficients are in line with ranges derived from literature. ECO’s calculation results underline the importance of redox processes and phosphate speciation for the nutrient return fluxes. Among other things, the results suggest that authigenic formation of a stable apatite-like mineral in the sediment can contribute significantly to oligotrophication of a lake after a phosphorus load reduction.
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Weinberger S, Vetter M. Using the hydrodynamic model DYRESM based on results of a regional climate model to estimate water temperature changes at Lake Ammersee. Ecol Modell 2012. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.06.016] [Citation(s) in RCA: 41] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/24/2022]
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19
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Scalo C, Piomelli U, Boegman L. Large-eddy simulation of oxygen transfer to organic sediment beds. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2012. [DOI: 10.1029/2011jc007289] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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20
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Chlot S, Widerlund A, Siergieiev D, Ecke F, Husson E, Öhlander B. Modelling nitrogen transformations in waters receiving mine effluents. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2011; 409:4585-4595. [PMID: 21816451 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2011.07.024] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/12/2011] [Revised: 07/07/2011] [Accepted: 07/09/2011] [Indexed: 05/31/2023]
Abstract
This paper presents a biogeochemical model developed for a clarification pond receiving ammonium nitrogen rich discharge water from the Boliden concentration plant located in northern Sweden. Present knowledge about nitrogen (N) transformations in lakes is compiled in a dynamic model that calculates concentrations of the six N species (state variables) ammonium-N (N(am)), nitrate-N (N(ox)), dissolved organic N in water (N(org)), N in phytoplankton (N(pp)), in macrophytes (N(mp)) and in sediment (N(sed)). It also simulates the rate of 16 N transformation processes occurring in the water column and sediment as well as water-sediment and water-atmosphere interactions. The model was programmed in the software Powersim using 2008 data, whilst validation was performed using data from 2006 to 2007. The sensitivity analysis showed that the state variables are most sensitive to changes in the coefficients related to the temperature dependence of the transformation processes. A six-year simulation of N(am) showed stable behaviour over time. The calibrated model rendered coefficients of determination (R(2)) of 0.93, 0.79 and 0.86 for N(am), N(ox) and N(org), respectively. Performance measures quantitatively expressing the deviation between modelled and measured data resulted in values close to zero, indicating a stable model structure. The simulated denitrification rate was on average five times higher than the ammonia volatilisation rate and about three times higher than the permanent burial of N(sed) and, hence, the most important process for the permanent removal of N. The model can be used to simulate possible measures to reduce the nitrogen load and, after some modification and recalibration, it can be applied at other mine sites affected by N rich effluents.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sara Chlot
- Division of Geosciences and Environmental Engineering, Luleå University of Technology, SE-971 87 Luleå, Sweden.
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Missaghi S, Hondzo M. Evaluation and application of a three-dimensional water quality model in a shallow lake with complex morphometry. Ecol Modell 2010. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.02.006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 34] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/19/2022]
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Liu WC, Chen WB, Kimura N. Impact of phosphorus load reduction on water quality in a stratified reservoir-eutrophication modeling study. ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT 2009; 159:393-406. [PMID: 19043791 DOI: 10.1007/s10661-008-0637-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/16/2008] [Accepted: 11/05/2008] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
Monitoring data collected from the Mingder Reservoir in Taiwan indicate that the water quality is between mesotrophic and eutrophic. Chlorophyll a concentration is higher in the summer and anoxic conditions occur in the bottom. The data also reveal that a pronounced vertical thermal gradient in summer and vertical mixing the end of fall. A vertical two-dimensional, laterally averaged hydrodynamic and water quality model (CE-QUAL-W2) was adopted to simulate the water surface elevation, water temperature, and water quality conditions in the water column. The modeling effort was supported with monitoring data collected in the field for a 2-year period in the reservoir. The hydrodynamic model reproduced the time series water surface elevation. Spatial and temporal distributions of temperature in the water column of the reservoir were also well reproduced by the hydrodynamic model. Model-calculated concentrations of key water quality constituents such as nutrients, dissolved oxygen, and algal biomass matched the measured values closely in the reservoir. The calibrated model was then applied to simulate water quality response to various nutrient reduction scenarios. Results of the model scenario runs reveal that a 20% and 80% reduction of the phosphorus loads will improve the water quality from eutrophic to mesotrophic and oligotrophic conditions, respectively. The modeling effort has yielded valuable information that can be used by decision makers for the evaluation of different management strategies of reducing watershed nutrient loads.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wen-Cheng Liu
- Department of Civil and Disaster Prevention Engineering, National United University, Miao-Li, 36003, Taiwan.
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