Integrated model projections of climate change impacts on a North American lake

Interacting impacts of hydrological changes and air temperature warming on lake temperatures highlight the potential for adaptive management

Globally, climate warming is increasing air temperatures and changing river flows, but few studies have explicitly considered the consequences for lake temperatures of these dual effects, or the potential to manage lake inflows to mitigate climate warming impacts. Using a one-dimensional model, we tested the sensitivity of lake temperatures to the separate and interacting effects of changes in air temperature and inflow on a small, short-residence time (annual average ≈ 20 days), temperate lake. Reducing inflow by 70% increased summer lake surface temperatures 1.0-1.2 °C and water column stability by 11-19%, equivalent to the effect of 1.2 °C air temperature warming. Conversely, similar increases in inflow could result in lake summer cooling, sufficient to mitigate 0.75 °C air temperature rise, increasing to more than 1.1 °C if inflow temperature does not rise. We discuss how altering lake inflow volume and temperature could be added to the suite of adaptation measures for lakes.

Modeling Lake Recovery Lag Times Following Influent Phosphorus Loading Reduction

Internal feedback of nutrients may impede timely improvement in lake water quality. We describe a parsimonious, mechanistic framework for modeling lag times to recovery of phosphorus-enriched lakes, given decreases in external loading. The approach assumes first-order kinetics in a two-compartment system taking account of phosphorus storage in and loading from benthic sediments. Bayesian parameter modeling, published sediment phosphorus release rates, and a prior dynamic calibration for one lake are used to derive estimates of key parameters. Applications are developed for an example lake, as are maps displaying estimated times to attainment of a phosphorus criterion in lakes across a midwestern state, and lag time estimates for fractional water column concentration decrease averaged over HUC-8s. Mean lag times to 50 and 75% declines in water column phosphorus concentration were estimated as 13.1 and 39.0 years respectively, across more than 70,000 lentic water bodies in the continental United States.

Ensemble streamflow projections for a small watershed with HSPF model

A watershed modeling tool, Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF), was utilized to model the hydrological processes in the agricultural Sarısu watershed in western Turkey. The meteorological input data were statistically downscaled time series from General Circulation Model simulations. The input data were constructed as an ensemble of 400 individual time series of temperature, precipitation, dewpoint temperature, solar radiation, potential evapotranspiration, cloudiness, and wind velocity, as required by HSPF. The ensemble was divided into four subsets, each comprising of 100 time series, of different Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Yearly and monthly total streamflow time series were obtained from the calibrated and validated HSPF model spanning a period of 116 years between the water years of 1984 and 2099. The projections in the watershed showed a median increase of 3 °C in yearly average temperatures between the beginning and end 30-year periods of the 116-year simulation periods based on 400 ensemble members while the corresponding change in total yearly precipitation was - 71 mm. These changes led to a decrease in yearly streamflows by 40% which reflected itself to varying degrees in monthly flows. Correlations were established between the principal drivers of the watershed hydrological cycle, namely temperature and precipitation, and streamflow. The results showed that the changes in the climatic conditions will greatly affect water-related issues in the watershed and emphasize the necessity of preparing carefully to adapt to a warmer and drier climate.

Applicability of water quality models around the world-a review

Water quality models are important tools used in the management of water resources. The models are usually developed for specific regions, with particular climates and physical characteristics. Thus, applying these models in regions other than those they were designed for can generate large simulation errors. With consideration to these discrepancies, the goal of this study is to identify the models employed in different countries and assist researchers in the selection of the most appropriate models for management purposes. Published studies from the last 21 years (1997-2017) that discuss the application of water quality models were selected from three engineering databases: SpringerLink, Web of Science, and Scopus. Seven models for water quality simulations have been widely applied around the world: AQUATOX, CE-QUAL-W2, EFDC, QUALs, SWAT, SPARROW, and WASP. The countries most frequently applying water quality models are the USA, followed by China, and South Korea. SWAT was the most used model, followed by the QUAL group and CE-QUAL-W2. This study provides the opportunity for researchers, who wish to study countries with fewer cases of applied water quality models, to easily identify the work from that region. Furthermore, this work collated central themes of interest and the most simulated parameters for the seven countries that most frequently employed the water quality models.

Impact of Urban Stormwater Runoff on Cyanobacteria Dynamics in A Tropical Urban Lake

Worldwide, eutrophication and cyanobacteria blooms in lakes and reservoirs are a great concern for water resources management. Coupling a catchment hydrological model and a lake model has been a strategy to assess the impact of land use, agricultural practices and climate change on water quality. However, research has mainly focused on large lakes, while urban reservoirs and their catchments, especially in tropical regions, are still poorly studied despite the wide range of ecosystem services they provide. An integrated modelling approach coupling the hydrological model Storm Water Management Model SWMM and the lake ecological model DYRESM-CAEDYM is proposed for Lake Pampulha (Brazil). Scenarios of increased imperviousness of the catchment and of reduction in the load of nutrients and total suspended solids (TSS) in dry weather inflow were simulated. Runoff water quality simulations presented a fair performance for TSS and ammonium (NH4+) while the dynamics of total phosphorus (TP) and nitrate (NO3−) were poorly captured. Phytoplankton dynamics in the lake were simulated with good accuracy (Normalized Mean Absolute Error, NMAE = 0.24 and r = 0.89 in calibration period; NMAE = 0.55 and r = 0.54 in validation period). The general trends of growth, decline and the magnitude of phytoplankton biomass were well represented most of the time. Scenario simulations suggest that TP reduction will decrease cyanobacteria biomass and delay its peaks as a consequence of orthophosphate (PO43−) concentration reduction in the lake surface layers. However, even decreasing TP load into Lake Pampulha by half would not be sufficient to achieve the water quality objective of a maximum concentration of 60 µg chla L−1. Increased imperviousness in the catchment will raise runoff volume, TSS, TP and NO3− loads into Lake Pampulha and promote greater cyanobacteria biomass, mainly in the beginning of the wet season, because of additional nutrient input from catchment runoff. Recovering Lake Pampulha water quality will require the improvement of the sanitation system. The lake water quality improvement will also require more sustainable and nature-based solutions for urban drainage in order to reduce non-point pollution through infiltration and retention of stormwater and to enhance natural processes, such as chemical sorption, biodegradation and phytoremediation. The integrated modelling approach here proposed can be applied for other urban reservoirs taking advantage of existing knowledge on Lake Pampulha.

Modelling climate change impacts on nutrients and primary production in coastal waters

There is high confidence that the anthropogenic increase of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) is causing modifications in the Earth's climate. Coastal waterbodies such as estuaries, bays and lagoons are among those most affected by the ongoing changes in climate. Being located at the land-sea interface, such waterbodies are subjected to the combined changes in the physical-chemical processes of atmosphere, upstream land and coastal waters. Particularly, climate change is expected to alter phytoplankton communities by changing their environmental drivers (especially climate-related), thus exacerbating the symptoms of eutrophication events, such as hypoxia, harmful algal blooms (HAB) and loss of habitat. A better understanding of the links between climate-related drivers and phytoplankton is therefore necessary for projecting climate change impacts on aquatic ecosystems. Here we present the case study of the Zero river basin in Italy, one of the main contributors of freshwater and nutrient to the salt-marsh Palude di Cona, a coastal waterbody belonging to the lagoon of Venice. To project the impacts of climate change on freshwater inputs, nutrient loadings and their effects on the phytoplankton community of the receiving waterbody, we formulated and applied an integrated modelling approach made of: climate simulations derived by coupling a General Circulation Model (GCM) and a Regional Climate Model (RCM) under alternative emission scenarios, the hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the ecological model AQUATOX. Climate projections point out an increase of precipitations in the winter period and a decrease in the summer months, while temperature shows a significant increase over the whole year. Water discharge and nutrient loads simulated by SWAT show a tendency to increase (decrease) in the winter (summer) period. AQUATOX projects changes in the concentration of nutrients in the salt-marsh Palude di Cona, and variations in the biomass and species of the phytoplankton community.

Effects of an atypical drought on the benthic macroinvertebrate community in a tropical reservoir

Abstract Atypical drought events have increasingly occurred in Brazil over the last years due to global climate changes. However, their consequences on aquatic biota in reservoirs are poorly known. We tested the hypothesis that macroinvertebrate communities are negatively affected by atypical drought events, given the sensitivity of many taxa to environmental changes. We predicted that: (a) there would be changes in limnological and sediment parameters between a regular year and an atypical year, (b) abundance and richness of the genera of Chironomidae and of exotic species would be higher due to the enhanced ability of these organisms to adapt to changes in the physical environment, and (c) community structure metrics (i. richness; ii. % richness; iii. abundance; iv. % abundance) would be affected by disturbance indices (i. Buffer Disturbance Index-BDI; ii. Local Disturbance Index-LDI; iii. Integrated Disturbance Index-IDI) in both years. The study was carried out in the reservoir of the Nova Ponte Hydroelectric Power Plant, state of Minas Gerais, comparing two sampling periods: a regular climatological year (2010) and an atypical drought year (2014). A total of 40 sampling sites were defined along the shore of the reservoir, and types of land use in the surrounding area of each site were measured, as well as physical habitat conditions, sediments, and benthic macroinvertebrate communities. Sampling was performed at these sites in the end of the rainy season in both years. The intensity of anthropogenic modifications was assessed at local scale and in the areas (buffers) surrounding the sampling sites using quantitative disturbance indices. There were striking differences in limnological parameters and sediment characteristics between sampling periods. Taxonomic richness was significantly lower in the drought year. As opposed to our predictions, richness and abundance of Chironomidae and exotic species did not increase with the atypical drought event. Besides, most community structure metrics showed a significant relationship with disturbance indices only during the regular climatological year, thus indicating that the large-scale effects of water stress may override the conditions of local habitats and the surrounding landscape. Therefore, in addition to a correct political-environmental management of water resources at local-scale, which includes maintaining the water quality and the riparian and landscape integrity, addressing large-scale climate issues is required for the maintenance of the ecological integrity of tropical reservoirs.

Do environmental factors affect male fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas) response to estrone? Part 1. Dissolved oxygen and sodium chloride

Laboratory exposures indicate that estrogens and their mimics can cause endocrine disruption in male fishes, yet while studies of resident fish populations in estrogen-polluted waters support these findings, biomarker expression associated with field versus laboratory exposure to estrogenic endocrine disruptors (EDs) often differ dramatically. Two of the environmental parameters often found to vary in dynamic aquatic ecosystems were chosen (dissolved oxygen [DO] and sodium chloride concentrations) to assess their potential impact on ED exposure. In separate experiments, male fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas) were exposed to estrone (E1) a natural ED, under either two concentrations of DO, or two concentrations of sodium chloride, in a laboratory flow-through system. Morphological and hematological parameters were assessed. While vitellogenin concentrations were elevated with exposure to estrone (29 to 390ng/L), the effect on other indices were variable. Estrone exposure altered SSC, blood glucose, hematocrit, and hepatic and gonado-somatic index in 1 of 4 experiments, while it decreased body condition factor in 3 of 4 experiments. At the concentrations tested, no main effect differences (P<0.05) were found associated with DO or sodium chloride treatments, except in one experiment low DO resulted in a decrease in secondary sex characteristic score (SSC). The combination of DO or sodium chloride and E1 altered blood glucose in one experiment each. These results indicate the variability of fathead minnow response to estrone, even within the confines of controlled laboratory conditions.

Food web modeling of a river ecosystem for risk assessment of down-the-drain chemicals: a case study with AQUATOX

Conventional approaches to estimating protective ecotoxicological thresholds of chemicals, i.e. predicted no-effect concentrations (PNEC), for an entire ecosystem are based on the use of assessment factors to extrapolate from single-species toxicity data derived in the laboratory to community-level effects on ecosystems. Aquatic food web models may be a useful tool to improve the ecological realism of chemical risk assessment because they enable a more insightful evaluation of the fate and effects of chemicals in dynamic trophic networks. A case study was developed in AQUATOX to simulate the effects of the anionic surfactant linear alkylbenzene sulfonate and the antimicrobial triclosan on a lowland riverine ecosystem. The model was built for a section of the River Thames (UK), for which detailed ecological surveys were available, allowing for a quantification of energy flows through the whole ecosystem. A control scenario was successfully calibrated for a simulation period of one year, and tested for stability over six years. Then, the model ecosystem was perturbed with varying inputs of the two chemicals. Simulations showed that both chemicals rapidly approach steady-state, with internal concentrations in line with the input bioconcentration factors throughout the year. At realistic environmental concentrations, both chemicals have insignificant effects on biomass trends. At hypothetical higher concentrations, direct and indirect effects of chemicals on the ecosystem dynamics emerged from the simulations. Indirect effects due to competition for food sources and predation can lead to responses in biomass density of the same magnitude as those caused by direct toxicity. Indirect effects can both exacerbate or compensate for direct toxicity. Uncertainties in key model assumptions are high as the validation of perturbed simulations remains extremely challenging. Nevertheless, the study is a step towards the development of realistic ecological scenarios and their potential use in prospective risk assessment of down-the-drain chemicals.

Total phosphorus reference condition for subalpine lakes: a comparison among traditional methods and a new process-based watershed approach

Different methods for estimating the total phosphorus (TP) reference conditions of lakes have rarely been compared. This work tests the uncertainty and accuracy of the most frequently used approaches (Morpho-edaphic index -MEI-, export coefficient, diatoms and pigment-inferred TP models) for 35 subalpine lakes. Furthermore, we propose a new process-based watershed approach that was tested on a subalpine environment and consists of combining a space for time substitution with a space for space substitution. The possible presence of uncontaminated or less contaminated environments inside or next to the watershed can be exploited by training a hydrological transport watershed model according to the uncontaminated conditions and then applying the calibration to the entire watershed, which reconstructs a natural or semi-natural TP load scenario. We found that the root mean square error (RMSE) for the MEI is 4 μg L(-1). However, its application is limited for lakes that present with an alkalinity ≤1 meq L(-1). For lakes with a higher alkalinity, we observed a loss of predictive capability that results from the lower solubility of phosphorus under conditions of high calcium content. The export coefficient model was applied with a mean export coefficient and presents similar prediction capabilities as the MEI. The chlorophyll-inferred TP model shows a higher uncertainty (RMSE = 8 μg L(-1)); however, it produced fewer underestimations and overestimations. With regards to the diatom-inferred TP model, we are only able to evaluate an uncertainty of 5 μg L(-1) at the European level. Finally, the proposed process-based watershed approach adequately predicted the reference condition of the selected lake and had an uncertainty lower than the other methods (2 μg L(-1)). We conclude by revealing the potential and limitations of this approach in the field of ecological lake modelling more and more attracted by TP pristine load inputs in studies on the effects of climate change and eutrophication of lakes.

Effects of experimental thermocline and oxycline deepening on methylmercury bioaccumulation in a Canadian shield lake

Environmental disturbances like deforestation or climate change may influence lake thermal and oxic stratification, thereby modifying cycles of contaminants such as mercury (Hg). In a lake naturally separated into three basins, the thermocline and oxycline of an experimental basin were deepened by 4 and 3 m, respectively, to study the effect on the methylmercury (MeHg) accumulation. This treatment decreased hypolimnetic MeHg concentration by approximately 90%, zooplankton concentrations by 30 to 50%, and in some fish by 45%. A multiple linear regression indicated that oxycline depth significantly influenced hypolimnetic MeHg concentrations, with no significant effect of thermocline depth, anoxic water volume, interface area of oxic-anoxic water, and sediment area in contact with anoxic water. Fish MeHg decline varied, with a greater response by low oxygen-tolerant bullhead. Increased pelagic primary and secondary production likely caused zooplankton and fish MeHg decreases via algal and growth dilution. Environmental changes leading to oxycline deepening are therefore predicted to cause a decrease in MeHg bioaccumulation in similar Canadian Shield lakes. If associated ecosystem impacts related to the deepening treatment are deemed acceptable, then this experiment provides a potential remediation method for small lakes confronted with MeHg accumulation.

Integrated earth system dynamic modeling for life cycle impact assessment of ecosystem services

Despite the increasing awareness of our dependence on Ecosystem Services (ES), Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) does not explicitly and fully assess the damages caused by human activities on ES generation. Recent improvements in LCIA focus on specific cause-effect chains, mainly related to land use changes, leading to Characterization Factors (CFs) at the midpoint assessment level. However, despite the complexity and temporal dynamics of ES, current LCIA approaches consider the environmental mechanisms underneath ES to be independent from each other and devoid of dynamic character, leading to constant CFs whose representativeness is debatable. This paper takes a step forward and is aimed at demonstrating the feasibility of using an integrated earth system dynamic modeling perspective to retrieve time- and scenario-dependent CFs that consider the complex interlinkages between natural processes delivering ES. The GUMBO (Global Unified Metamodel of the Biosphere) model is used to quantify changes in ES production in physical terms - leading to midpoint CFs - and changes in human welfare indicators, which are considered here as endpoint CFs. The interpretation of the obtained results highlights the key methodological challenges to be solved to consider this approach as a robust alternative to the mainstream rationale currently adopted in LCIA. Further research should focus on increasing the granularity of environmental interventions in the modeling tools to match current standards in LCA and on adapting the conceptual approach to a spatially-explicit integrated model.

Implementation of BMP strategies for adaptation to climate change and land use change in a pasture-dominated watershed

Implementing a suite of best management practices (BMPs) can reduce non-point source (NPS) pollutants from various land use activities. Watershed models are generally used to evaluate the effectiveness of BMP performance in improving water quality as the basis for watershed management recommendations. This study evaluates 171 management practice combinations that incorporate nutrient management, vegetated filter strips (VFS) and grazing management for their performances in improving water quality in a pasture-dominated watershed with dynamic land use changes during 1992–2007 by using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). These selected BMPs were further examined with future climate conditions (2010–2069) downscaled from three general circulation models (GCMs) for understanding how climate change may impact BMP performance. Simulation results indicate that total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) losses increase with increasing litter application rates. Alum-treated litter applications resulted in greater TN losses, and fewer TP losses than the losses from untreated poultry litter applications. For the same litter application rates, sediment and TP losses are greater for summer applications than fall and spring applications, while TN losses are greater for fall applications. Overgrazing management resulted in the greatest sediment and phosphorus losses, and VFS is the most influential management practice in reducing pollutant losses. Simulations also indicate that climate change impacts TSS losses the most, resulting in a larger magnitude of TSS losses. However, the performance of selected BMPs in reducing TN and TP losses was more stable in future climate change conditions than in the BMP performance in the historical climate condition. We recommend that selection of BMPs to reduce TSS losses should be a priority concern when multiple uses of BMPs that benefit nutrient reductions are considered in a watershed. Therefore, the BMP combination of spring litter application, optimum grazing management and filter strip with a VFS ratio of 42 could be a promising alternative for use in mitigating future climate change.