A demo-genetic individual-based model for Atlantic salmon populations: Model structure, parameterization and sensitivity

Competitive interactions affect introgression and population viability amidst maladaptive hybridization

The deliberate release of captive-bred individuals, the accidental escape of domesticated strains, or the invasion of closely related conspecifics into wild populations can all lead to introgressive hybridization, which poses a challenge for conservation and wildlife management. Rates of introgression and the magnitude of associated demographic impacts vary widely across ecological contexts. However, the reasons for this variation remain poorly understood. One rarely considered phenomenon in this context is soft selection, wherein relative trait values determine success in intraspecific competition for a limiting resource. Here we develop an eco-genetic model explicitly focussed on understanding the influence of such competitive interactions on the eco-evolutionary dynamics of wild populations experiencing an influx of foreign/domesticated individuals. The model is applicable to any taxon that experiences natural or human-mediated inputs of locally maladapted genotypes ('intrusion'), in addition to phenotype-dependent competition for a limiting resource (e.g. breeding sites, feeding territories). The effects of both acute and chronic intrusion depended strongly on the relative competitiveness of intruders versus locals. When intruders were competitively inferior, density-dependent regulation limited their reproductive success (ability to compete for limited spawning sites), which prevented strong introgression or population declines from occurring. In contrast, when intruders were competitively superior, this amplified introgression and led to increased maladaptation of the admixed population. This had negative consequences for population size and population viability. The results were sensitive to the intrusion level, the magnitude of reproductive excess, trait heritability and the extent to which intruders were maladapted relative to locals. Our findings draw attention to under-appreciated interactions between phenotype-dependent competitive interactions and maladaptive hybridization, which may be critical to determining the impact captive breeding programmes and domesticated escapees can have on otherwise self-sustaining wild populations.

Global warming is projected to lead to increased freshwater growth potential and changes in pace of life in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar

Global warming has been implicated in widespread demographic changes in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar populations, but projections of life-history responses to future climate change are lacking. Here, we first exploit multiple decades of climate and biological data from the Burrishoole catchment in the west of Ireland to model statistical relationships between atmospheric variables, water temperature, and freshwater growth of juvenile Atlantic salmon. We then use this information to project potential changes in juvenile growth and life-history scheduling under three shared socioeconomic pathway and representative concentration pathway scenarios from 1961 to 2100, based on an ensemble of five climate models. Historical water temperatures were well predicted with a recurrent neural network, using observation-based atmospheric forcing data. Length-at-age was in turn also well predicted by cumulative growing degree days calculated from these water temperatures. Most juveniles in the Burrishoole population migrated to sea as 2-year-old smolts, but our future projections indicate that the system should start producing a greater proportion of 1-year-old smolts, as increasingly more juveniles cross a size-based threshold in their first summer for smoltification the following spring. Those failing to cross the size-based threshold will instead become 2-year-old smolts, but at a larger length relative to 2-year-old smolts observed currently, owing to greater overall freshwater growth opportunity. These changes in age- and size-at-seaward migration could have cascading effects on age- and size-at-maturity and reproductive output. Consequently, the seemingly small changes that our results demonstrate have the potential to cause significant shifts in population dynamics over the full life cycle. This workflow is highly applicable across the range of the Atlantic salmon, as well as to other anadromous species, as it uses openly accessible climate data and a length-at-age model with minimal input requirements, fostering improved general understanding of phenotypic and demographic responses to climate change and management implications.

Importance of interindividual interactions in eco-evolutionary population dynamics: The rise of demo-genetic agent-based models

The study of eco-evolutionary dynamics, that is of the intertwinning between ecological and evolutionary processes when they occur at comparable time scales, is of growing interest in the current context of global change. However, many eco-evolutionary studies overlook the role of interindividual interactions, which are hard to predict and yet central to selective values. Here, we aimed at putting forward models that simulate interindividual interactions in an eco-evolutionary framework: the demo-genetic agent-based models (DG-ABMs). Being demo-genetic, DG-ABMs consider the feedback loop between ecological and evolutionary processes. Being agent-based, DG-ABMs follow populations of interacting individuals with sets of traits that vary among the individuals. We argue that the ability of DG-ABMs to take into account the genetic heterogeneity-that affects individual decisions/traits related to local and instantaneous conditions-differentiates them from analytical models, another type of model largely used by evolutionary biologists to investigate eco-evolutionary feedback loops. Based on the review of studies employing DG-ABMs and explicitly or implicitly accounting for competitive, cooperative or reproductive interactions, we illustrate that DG-ABMs are particularly relevant for the exploration of fundamental, yet pressing, questions in evolutionary ecology across various levels of organization. By jointly modelling the effects of management practices and other eco-evolutionary processes on interindividual interactions and population dynamics, DG-ABMs are also effective prospective and decision support tools to evaluate the short- and long-term evolutionary costs and benefits of management strategies and to assess potential trade-offs. Finally, we provide a list of the recent practical advances of the ABM community that should facilitate the development of DG-ABMs.

Escalating the conflict? Intersex genetic correlations influence adaptation to environmental change in facultatively migratory populations

Males and females are often subject to different and even opposing selection pressures. When a given trait has a shared genetic basis between the sexes, sexual conflict (antagonism) can arise. This can result in significant individual-level fitness consequences that might also affect population performance, whilst anthropogenic environmental change can further exacerbate maladaptation in one or both sexes driven by sexual antagonism. Here, we develop a genetically explicit eco-evolutionary model using an agent-based framework to explore how a population of a facultatively migratory fish species (brown trout Salmo trutta) adapts to environmental change across a range of intersex genetic correlations for migration propensity, which influence the magnitude of sexual conflict. Our modelled focal trait represents a condition threshold governing whether individuals adopt a resident or anadromous (sea migration) tactic. Anadromy affords potential size-mediated reproductive advantages to both males and females due to improved feeding opportunities at sea, but these can be undermined by high background marine mortality and survival/growth costs imposed by marine parasites (sea lice). We show that migration tactic frequency for a given set of environmental conditions is strongly influenced by the intersex genetic correlation, such that one sex can be dragged off its optimum more than the other. When this occurred in females in our model, population productivity was substantially reduced, but eco-evolutionary outcomes were altered by allowing for sneaking behaviour in males. We discuss real-world implications of our work given that anadromous salmonids are regularly challenged by sea lice infestations, which might act synergistically with other stressors such as climate change or fishing that impact marine performance, driving populations towards residency and potentially reduced resilience.

Parasite induced mortality is context dependent in Atlantic salmon: insights from an individual-based model

An individual-based model was parameterized to explore the impact of a crustacean ectoparasite (sea louse, Lepeophtheirus salmonis & Caligus spp.) on migrating Atlantic salmon smolt. The model explores how environmental and intrinsic factors can modulate the effect of sea lice on survival, growth and maturation of Atlantic salmon at sea. Relative to other effects, the parasite infestation pressure from fish farms and the encounter process emerge as the most important parameters. Although small variations in parasite-induced mortality may be masked by variable environmental effects, episodes of high infestation pressure from fish farms should be observable in wild populations of Atlantic salmon if laboratory studies accurately reflect the physiological effects of sea lice. Increases in temperature in the model negatively influenced fish survival by affecting the development time of the parasite at a rate that was not compensated for by the growth of the host. Discharge from rivers was parameterized to increase migration speed and influenced parasite induced mortality by decreasing time spent in areas with increased infestation pressure. Initial size and growth of the host was inversely related to the impact of the parasite because of size-dependent parasite-induced mortality in the early phase of migration. Overall, the model illustrates how environmental factors modulate effects on the host population by impacting either the parasite load or the relative effect of the parasite. The results suggest that linking population-level effects to parasite infestation pressure across climatic and environmental gradients may be challenging without correctly accounting for these effects.

Co-inheritance of sea age at maturity and iteroparity in the Atlantic salmon vgll3 genomic region

Co-inheritance in life-history traits may result in unpredictable evolutionary trajectories if not accounted for in life-history models. Iteroparity (the reproductive strategy of reproducing more than once) in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) is a fitness trait with substantial variation within and among populations. In the Teno River in northern Europe, iteroparous individuals constitute an important component of many populations and have experienced a sharp increase in abundance in the last 20 years, partly overlapping with a general decrease in age structure. The physiological basis of iteroparity bears similarities to that of age at first maturity, another life-history trait with substantial fitness effects in salmon. Sea age at maturity in Atlantic salmon is controlled by a major locus around the vgll3 gene, and we used this opportunity demonstrate that these two traits are co-inherited around this genome region. The odds ratio of survival until second reproduction was up to 2.4 (1.8-3.5 90% CI) times higher for fish with the early-maturing vgll3 genotype (EE) compared to fish with the late-maturing genotype (LL). The L allele was dominant in individuals remaining only one year at sea before maturation, but the dominance was reversed, with the E allele being dominant in individuals maturing after two or more years at sea. Post hoc analysis indicated that iteroparous fish with the EE genotype had accelerated growth prior to first reproduction compared to first-time spawners, across all age groups, whereas this effect was not detected in fish with the LL genotype. These results broaden the functional link around the vgll3 genome region and help us understand constraints in the evolution of life-history variation in salmon. Our results further highlight the need to account for genetic correlations between fitness traits when predicting demographic changes in changing environments.

Modeling fitness changes in wild Atlantic salmon populations faced by spawning intrusion of domesticated escapees

Genetic interaction between domesticated escapees and wild conspecifics represents a persistent challenge to an environmentally sustainable Atlantic salmon aquaculture industry. We used a recently developed eco-genetic model (IBSEM) to investigate potential changes in a wild salmon population subject to spawning intrusion from domesticated escapees. At low intrusion levels (5%-10% escapees), phenotypic and demographic characteristics of the recipient wild population only displayed weak changes over 50 years and only at high intrusion levels (30%-50% escapees) were clear changes visible in this period. Our modeling also revealed that genetic changes in phenotypic and demographic characteristics were greater in situations where strayers originating from a neighboring wild population were domestication-admixed and changed in parallel with the focal wild population, as opposed to nonadmixed. While recovery in the phenotypic and demographic characteristics was observed in many instances after domesticated salmon intrusion was halted, in the most extreme intrusion scenario, the population went extinct. Based upon results from these simulations, together with existing knowledge, we suggest that a combination of reduced spawning success of domesticated escapees, natural selection purging maladapted phenotypes/genotypes from the wild population, and phenotypic plasticity, buffer the rate and magnitude of change in phenotypic and demographic characteristics of wild populations subject to spawning intrusion of domesticated escapees. The results of our simulations also suggest that under specific conditions, natural straying among wild populations may buffer genetic changes in phenotypic and demographic characteristics resulting from introgression of domesticated escapees and that variation in straying in time and space may contribute to observed differences in domestication-driven introgression among native populations.

Influence of body condition on the population dynamics of Atlantic salmon with consideration of the potential impact of sea lice

Atlantic salmon Salmo salar is an iconic species of high conservation and economic importance. At sea, individuals typically are subject to sea lice infestation, which can have detrimental effects on their host. Over recent decades, the body condition and marine survival in NE Atlantic stocks have generally decreased, reflected in fewer adults returning to rivers, which is partly attributable to sea lice. We developed a deterministic stage-structured population model to assess condition-mediated population dynamics resulting in changing fecundity, age at sexual maturation and marine survival rate. The model is parameterized using data from the North Esk system, north-east Scotland. Both constant and density-dependent juvenile survival rates are considered. We show that even small sea lice-mediated changes in mean body condition of MSW can cause substantial population declines, whereas 1SW condition is less influential. Density dependence alleviates the condition-mediated population effect. The resilience of the population to demographic perturbations declines as adult condition is reduced. Indirect demographic changes in salmonid life-history traits (e.g., body condition) are often considered unimportant for population trajectory. The model shows that Atlantic salmon population dynamics can be highly responsive to sea lice-mediated effects on adult body condition, thus highlighting the importance of non-lethal parasitic long-term effects.

Simulated juvenile salmon growth and phenology respond to altered thermal regimes and stream network shape

It is generally accepted that climate change will stress coldwater species like Pacific salmon. However, it is unclear what aspect of altered thermal regimes (e.g., warmer winters, springs, summers, or increased variability) will have the greatest effect, and what role the spatial properties of river networks play. Thermally diverse habitats may afford protection from climate change by providing opportunities for aquatic organisms to find and use habitats with optimal conditions for growth. We hypothesized that climate-altered thermal regimes will change growth and timing of life history events such as emergence or migration but that changes will be moderated in topologically complex stream networks where opportunities to thermoregulate are more readily available to mobile animals. Because climate change effects on populations are spatially variable and contingent upon physiological optima, assessments of risk must take a spatially explicit approach. We developed a spatially-structured individual based model for Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in which movement decisions and growth were governed by water temperature and conspecific density. We evaluated growth and phenology (timing of egg emergence and smolting) under a variety of thermal regimes (each having a different minimum, rate of warming, maximum, and variability) and in three network shapes of increasing spatial complexity. Across networks, fish generally grew faster and were capable of smolting earlier in warmer scenarios where water temperatures experienced by fish were closer to optimal; however, growth decreased for some fish. We found that salmon size and smolt date responded more strongly to warmer springs and summers than to warmer winters or increased variability. Fish in the least complex network grew faster and were ready to smolt earlier than fish in the more spatially complex network shapes in the contemporary thermal regime; patterns were similar but less clear in warmer thermal regimes. Our results demonstrate that network topology may influence how fish respond to thermal landscapes, and this information will be useful for incorporating a spatiotemporal context into conservation decisions that promote long-term viability of salmon in a changing climate.

Steady states and outbreaks of two-phase nonlinear age-structured model of population dynamics with discrete time delay

In this paper we study the nonlinear age-structured model of a polycyclic two-phase population dynamics including delayed effect of population density growth on the mortality. Both phases are modelled as a system of initial boundary values problem for semi-linear transport equation with delay and initial problem for nonlinear delay ODE. The obtained system is studied both theoretically and numerically. Three different regimes of population dynamics for asymptotically stable states of autonomous systems are obtained in numerical experiments for the different initial values of population density. The quasi-periodical travelling wave solutions are studied numerically for the autonomous system with the different values of time delays and for the system with oscillating death rate and birth modulus. In both cases it is observed three types of travelling wave solutions: harmonic oscillations, pulse sequence and single pulse.

Roles of density-dependent growth and life history evolution in accounting for fisheries-induced trait changes

The relative roles of density dependence and life history evolution in contributing to rapid fisheries-induced trait changes remain debated. In the 1930s, northeast Arctic cod (Gadus morhua), currently the world's largest cod stock, experienced a shift from a traditional spawning-ground fishery to an industrial trawl fishery with elevated exploitation in the stock's feeding grounds. Since then, age and length at maturation have declined dramatically, a trend paralleled in other exploited stocks worldwide. These trends can be explained by demographic truncation of the population's age structure, phenotypic plasticity in maturation arising through density-dependent growth, fisheries-induced evolution favoring faster-growing or earlier-maturing fish, or a combination of these processes. Here, we use a multitrait eco-evolutionary model to assess the capacity of these processes to reproduce 74 y of historical data on age and length at maturation in northeast Arctic cod, while mimicking the stock's historical harvesting regime. Our results show that model predictions critically depend on the assumed density dependence of growth: when this is weak, life history evolution might be necessary to prevent stock collapse, whereas when a stronger density dependence estimated from recent data is used, the role of evolution in explaining fisheries-induced trait changes is diminished. Our integrative analysis of density-dependent growth, multitrait evolution, and stock-specific time series data underscores the importance of jointly considering evolutionary and ecological processes, enabling a more comprehensive perspective on empirically observed stock dynamics than previous studies could provide.

Sexual selection leads to a tenfold difference in reproductive success of alternative reproductive tactics in male Atlantic salmon

The precocious maturation of some male Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) has become a textbook example of alternative mating tactics, but the only estimates of reproductive success available so far are either the collective contribution of precocious males to reproduction in the wild or individual reproductive success in oversimplified experimental conditions. Using genetic parentage analysis on anadromous and precocious potential spawners and their offspring, we quantified components of individual reproductive success of both tactics in a natural population. On average, precocious males produced 2.24 (variance 67.62) offspring, against 27.17 (3080) for anadromous males. For both tactics, most of the variance in reproductive success was due to mating success, with 83% of precocious males having no mate, against 50% for anadromous males. Body size increased reproductive success of anadromous males and tended to decrease precocious males' reproductive success. Although these results do not solve the coexistence of alternative reproductive tactics (ARTs) in Atlantic salmon, their inclusion in comprehensive models of lifetime reproductive success should shed light on the evolution of precocious maturation in Atlantic salmon and its effect on the selection of phenotypic traits.

Strong Effects of Temperature on the Early Life Stages of a Cold Stenothermal Fish Species, Brown Trout (Salmo trutta L.)

Temperature is the main abiotic factor that influences the life cycle of poikilotherms. The present study investigated the thermal tolerance and phenotypic plasticity of several parameters (development time, morphometric measures, bioenergetics) for both embryos and fry of a cold stenothermal fish species, brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) in order to allow for a holistic evaluation of the potential effects of temperature. Five temperatures (4°C, 6°C, 8°C, 10°C, and 12°C) were tested, and the effects of temperature were analyzed at three stages: hatching, emergence, and first food intake. A mean of 5,440 (S.E. ± 573) eggs, coming from seven females and seven males (seven families) captured close to Linkebeek (Belgium), were used for each temperature. Maximum survival of well-formed fry at first food intake and better use of energy budget were found at 6°C and 8°C, temperatures at which the possible contribution to the next generation should therefore be greatest. At 12°C, the experimental population fell dramatically (0.9% survival rate for well-formed fry at first food intake), and fry had almost no yolk sac at first food intake. The present results on survival at 12°C are in accordance with predictions of a sharp decrease in brown trout numbers in France over the coming decades according to climate change projections (1°C to 5°C temperature rise by 2100 for France). At 10°C, there was also a lower survival rate (55.4% at first food intake). At 4°C, the survival rate was high (76.4% at first food intake), but the deformity rate was much higher (22% at first food intake) than at 6°C, 8°C, and 10°C. The energetic budget showed that at the two extreme temperatures (4°C and 12°C) there was less energy left in the yolk sac at first food intake, suggesting a limited ability to survive starvation.

IBSEM: An Individual-Based Atlantic Salmon Population Model

Ecology and genetics can influence the fate of individuals and populations in multiple ways. However, to date, few studies consider them when modelling the evolutionary trajectory of populations faced with admixture with non-local populations. For the Atlantic salmon, a model incorporating these elements is urgently needed because many populations are challenged with gene-flow from non-local and domesticated conspecifics. We developed an Individual-Based Salmon Eco-genetic Model (IBSEM) to simulate the demographic and population genetic change of an Atlantic salmon population through its entire life-cycle. Processes such as growth, mortality, and maturation are simulated through stochastic procedures, which take into account environmental variables as well as the genotype of the individuals. IBSEM is based upon detailed empirical data from salmon biology, and parameterized to reproduce the environmental conditions and the characteristics of a wild population inhabiting a Norwegian river. Simulations demonstrated that the model consistently and reliably reproduces the characteristics of the population. Moreover, in absence of farmed escapees, the modelled populations reach an evolutionary equilibrium that is similar to our definition of a ‘wild’ genotype. We assessed the sensitivity of the model in the face of assumptions made on the fitness differences between farm and wild salmon, and evaluated the role of straying as a buffering mechanism against the intrusion of farm genes into wild populations. These results demonstrate that IBSEM is able to capture the evolutionary forces shaping the life history of wild salmon and is therefore able to model the response of populations under environmental and genetic stressors.

Incorporating evolutionary processes into population viability models

We examined how ecological and evolutionary (eco-evo) processes in population dynamics could be better integrated into population viability analysis (PVA). Complementary advances in computation and population genomics can be combined into an eco-evo PVA to offer powerful new approaches to understand the influence of evolutionary processes on population persistence. We developed the mechanistic basis of an eco-evo PVA using individual-based models with individual-level genotype tracking and dynamic genotype-phenotype mapping to model emergent population-level effects, such as local adaptation and genetic rescue. We then outline how genomics can allow or improve parameter estimation for PVA models by providing genotypic information at large numbers of loci for neutral and functional genome regions. As climate change and other threatening processes increase in rate and scale, eco-evo PVAs will become essential research tools to evaluate the effects of adaptive potential, evolutionary rescue, and locally adapted traits on persistence.

Combining correlative and mechanistic habitat suitability models to improve ecological compensation

Only a few studies have shown positive impacts of ecological compensation on species dynamics affected by human activities. We argue that this is due to inappropriate methods used to forecast required compensation in environmental impact assessments. These assessments are mostly descriptive and only valid at limited spatial and temporal scales. However, habitat suitability models developed to predict the impacts of environmental changes on potential species' distributions should provide rigorous science-based tools for compensation planning. Here we describe the two main classes of predictive models: correlative models and individual-based mechanistic models. We show how these models can be used alone or synoptically to improve compensation planning. While correlative models are easier to implement, they tend to ignore underlying ecological processes and lack accuracy. On the contrary, individual-based mechanistic models can integrate biological interactions, dispersal ability and adaptation. Moreover, among mechanistic models, those considering animal energy balance are particularly efficient at predicting the impact of foraging habitat loss. However, mechanistic models require more field data compared to correlative models. Hence we present two approaches which combine both methods for compensation planning, especially in relation to the spatial scale considered. We show how the availability of biological databases and software enabling fast and accurate population projections could be advantageously used to assess ecological compensation requirement efficiently in environmental impact assessments.

Contrasting effects of climate change in continental vs. oceanic environments on population persistence and microevolution of Atlantic salmon

Facing climate change (CC), species are prone to multiple modifications in their environment that can lead to extinction, migration or adaptation. Identifying the role and interplay of different potential stressors becomes a key question. Anadromous fishes will be exposed to both river and oceanic habitat changes. For Atlantic salmon, the river water temperature, river flow and oceanic growth conditions appear as three main stressing factors. They could act on population dynamics or as selective forces on life-history pathways. Using an individual-based demo-genetic model, we assessed the effects of these factors (1) to compare risks of extinction resulting from CC in river and ocean, and (2) to assess CC effects on life-history pathways including the evolution of underlying genetic control of phenotypic plasticity. We focused on Atlantic salmon populations from Southern Europe for a time horizon of three decades. We showed that CC in river alone should not lead to extinction of Southern European salmon populations. In contrast, the reduced oceanic growth appeared as a significant threat for population persistence. An increase in river flow amplitude increased the risk of local extinction in synergy with the oceanic effects, but river temperature rise reduced this risk. In terms of life-history modifications, the reduced oceanic growth increased the age of return of individuals through plastic and genetic responses. The river temperature rise increased the proportion of sexually mature parr, but the genetic evolution of the maturation threshold lowered the maturation rate of male parr. This was identified as a case of environmentally driven plastic response that masked an underlying evolutionary response of plasticity going in the opposite direction. We concluded that to counteract oceanic effects, river flow management represented the sole potential force to reduce the extinction probability of Atlantic salmon populations in Southern Europe, although this might not impede changes in migration life history.