Sensitivity of modeled NEP to climate forcing and soil at site and regional scales: Implications for upscaling ecosystem models

Water level changes in Lake Erie drive 21st century CO2 and CH4 fluxes from a coastal temperate wetland

Wetland water depth influences microbial and plant communities, which can alter the above- and below-ground carbon cycling of a wetland. Wetland water depths are likely to change due to shifting precipitation patterns, which will affect projections of greenhouse gas emissions; however, these effects are rarely incorporated into wetland greenhouse gas models. Seeking to address this gap, we used a mechanistic model, ecosys, to simulate a range of water depth scenarios in a temperate wetland, and analyzed simulated predictions of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH₄) fluxes over the 21st century. We tested our model using eddy covariance measurements of CO₂ and CH₄ fluxes collected at the Old Woman Creek National Estuarine Research Reserve (OWC) during 2015 and 2016. OWC is a lacustrine, estuarine, freshwater, mineral-soil marsh. An empirical model found that the wetland water depth is highly dependent on the water depth of the nearby Lake Erie. Future wetland surface water depths were modeled based on projection of Lake Erie's water depth using four separate NOAA projections, resulting in four wetland water-depth scenarios. Two of the four 21st century projections for Lake Erie water depths used in this study indicated that the water depth of the wetland would remain nearly steady; however, the other two indicated decreases in the wetland water depth. In our scenario where the wetland dries out, we project the wetland's climatological warming effect will decrease due to smaller CH₄ fluxes to the atmosphere and larger CO₂ uptake by the wetland. We also found that increased water level can lower emissions by shifting the site towards more open water areas, which have lower CH₄ emissions. We found that decreased water depths would cause more widespread colonization of the wetland by macrophyte vegetation. Using an empirical relationship, we also found that further drying could result in other, non-wetland vegetation to emerge, dramatically altering soil carbon cycling. In three of our four projections, we found that in general the magnitude of CO₂ and CH₄ fluxes steadily increase over the next 100 years in response to higher temperatures. However, in our driest simulations, we projected a different response due to increased oxidation of soil carbon, with CH₄ emissions decreasing substantially from an annual cumulative peak of 224.6 to a minimum of 104.7 gC m^-2 year^-1. In that same simulation, net cumulative flux of CO₂ changed from being a sink of 56.5 gC m^-2 year^-1 to a source of 369.6 gC m^-2 year^-1 over the same period, despite a temperature increase from 13.7 °C to 14.2 °C. This temperature shift in our other three cases with greater water depths increased the source strength of CH₄ and the sink strength of CO₂. We conclude that the magnitude of wetland greenhouse-gas fluxes depended on the water depth primarily as it affected the areal percentage of the wetland available for plant colonization, but dramatic decreases in water depths could cause significant reductions in the wetland CH₄ fluxes, while simultaneously altering the wetland vegetation.

Expansion of high-latitude deciduous forests driven by interactions between climate warming and fire

High-latitude regions have experienced rapid warming in recent decades, and this trend is projected to continue over the twenty-first century¹. Fire is also projected to increase with warming^2,3. We show here, consistent with changes during the Holocene⁴, that changes in twenty-first century climate and fire are likely to alter the composition of Alaskan boreal forests. We hypothesize that competition for nutrients after fire in early succession and for light in late succession in a warmer climate will cause shifts in plant functional type. Consistent with observations, our ecosystem model predicts evergreen conifers to be the current dominant tree type in Alaska. However, under future climate and fire, our analysis suggests the relative dominance of deciduous broadleaf trees nearly doubles, accounting for 58% of the Alaska ecosystem's net primary productivity by 2100, with commensurate declines in contributions from evergreen conifer trees and herbaceous plants. Post-fire deciduous broadleaf tree growth under a future climate is sustained from enhanced microbial nitrogen mineralization caused by warmer soils and deeper active layers, resulting in taller trees that compete more effectively for light. The expansion of deciduous broadleaf forests will affect the carbon cycle, surface energy fluxes and ecosystem function, thereby modifying important feedbacks with the climate system.

Assessing the ecological vulnerability of the upper reaches of the Minjiang River

The upper reaches of the Minjiang River (URMR), located on the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau in southwestern China, are an important component of the ecological barrier of the Upper Yangtze River Basin. Climate change and human activities have increased the ecological sensitivity and vulnerability of the region, which may pose a threat to the ecological security of the Yangtze River Basin and have negative impacts on local social and economic development. In this study, we analyzed land use and cover change (LUCC) of the URMR between 2000 and 2010, and found that the total rate of LUCC was less than 0.50% during this period. In addition, net primary production (NPP) was employed to describe the changes in ecosystem sensitivity and vulnerability, and the results demonstrated that slightly and moderately sensitive and vulnerable zones occupied the largest area, distributed mainly in forest, shrub, and grassland ecosystems. However, compared with the period from 2000 to 2005, the ecological sensitivity and vulnerability showed a worsening trend in the period 2005-2010. Exploring the relationship between vulnerability/sensitivity and environmental factors, we found that sensitivity and vulnerability were positively correlated with precipitation (>700 mm) and aridity index (>36 mm/°C). The results highlight that the future ecological sensitivity and vulnerability of URMR should be further investigated, and that the LUCC induced by human activities and climate change have caused alteration of in ecosystem vulnerability.