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Abstract
Urban ecosystem services provide many benefits for human beings. Given the dramatic increase of urbanization, maintaining sustainability of cities relies heavily on ecosystem services, and it is crucial for quantifying, managing, and optimizing urban ecosystem services to promote social and ecological sustainable development. This study presents the review of models for assessing urban ecosystem services through gathering the pertinent literatures which were published recent years. The main types of approaches for assessing urban ecosystem services were summarized, and the model simulation approach was detailed. From modelling techniques to the existing models, it was found that a process-based model is, relatively, a better way to detect the mechanism of urban ecological processes and simulate the future dynamic changes of urban ecosystem services. Three key limitations of existing products and frameworks were identified: (1) lacking understanding of multiple urban ecosystem services interactions, (2) ignoring accounting the socioeconomic factors into dynamics of urban ecosystem, and (3) lacking considerations of feedback effects between social system and urban ecosystem. The study concludes with outlooks that a comprehensive social-ecosystem model based on the social-ecological framework is helpful to reveal the relationships and interactions among various urban ecosystem services, and can better assess how human-induced urban growth affects ecosystem services, and better describe the feedback effect between the social environment and urban ecosystem services, as well as dynamically predict the changes of urban ecosystem services under different scenarios in future long time series.
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2
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O'Connor MI, Mori AS, Gonzalez A, Dee LE, Loreau M, Avolio M, Byrnes JEK, Cheung W, Cowles J, Clark AT, Hautier Y, Hector A, Komatsu K, Newbold T, Outhwaite CL, Reich PB, Seabloom E, Williams L, Wright A, Isbell F. Grand challenges in biodiversity-ecosystem functioning research in the era of science-policy platforms require explicit consideration of feedbacks. Proc Biol Sci 2021; 288:20210783. [PMID: 34641733 PMCID: PMC8511742 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2021.0783] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Feedbacks are an essential feature of resilient socio-economic systems, yet the feedbacks between biodiversity, ecosystem services and human wellbeing are not fully accounted for in global policy efforts that consider future scenarios for human activities and their consequences for nature. Failure to integrate feedbacks in our knowledge frameworks exacerbates uncertainty in future projections and potentially prevents us from realizing the full benefits of actions we can take to enhance sustainability. We identify six scientific research challenges that, if addressed, could allow future policy, conservation and monitoring efforts to quantitatively account for ecosystem and societal consequences of biodiversity change. Placing feedbacks prominently in our frameworks would lead to (i) coordinated observation of biodiversity change, ecosystem functions and human actions, (ii) joint experiment and observation programmes, (iii) more effective use of emerging technologies in biodiversity science and policy, and (iv) a more inclusive and integrated global community of biodiversity observers. To meet these challenges, we outline a five-point action plan for collaboration and connection among scientists and policymakers that emphasizes diversity, inclusion and open access. Efforts to protect biodiversity require the best possible scientific understanding of human activities, biodiversity trends, ecosystem functions and—critically—the feedbacks among them.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mary I O'Connor
- Department of Zoology, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada.,Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada
| | - Akira S Mori
- Graduate School of Environment and Information Sciences, Yokohama National University, Yokohama, Japan
| | - Andrew Gonzalez
- Department of Biology, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada
| | - Laura E Dee
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Michel Loreau
- Theoretical and Empirical Ecology Station, CNRS, Moulis, France
| | - Meghan Avolio
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21218, USA
| | - Jarrett E K Byrnes
- College of Science and Mathematics, University of Massachusetts-Boston, Boston, MA, USA
| | - William Cheung
- Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada.,Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada
| | - Jane Cowles
- Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, University of Minnesota, St Paul, MN, USA
| | - Adam T Clark
- Institute of Biology, University of Graz, Holteigasse 6, 8010 Graz, Austria
| | - Yann Hautier
- Ecology and Biodiversity Group, Department of Biology, Utrecht University, Padualaan 8, 3584 CH Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Andrew Hector
- Department of Plant Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | | | - Tim Newbold
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London, UK
| | - Charlotte L Outhwaite
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London, UK
| | - Peter B Reich
- Department of Forest Resources, University of Minnesota, St Paul, MN 55108 USA.,Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Penrith, NSW 2753, Australia.,Institute for Global Change Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA.,School for Environment and Sustainability, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA
| | - Eric Seabloom
- Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, University of Minnesota, St Paul, MN, USA
| | - Laura Williams
- Department of Forest Resources, University of Minnesota, St Paul, MN 55108 USA
| | - Alexandra Wright
- Biological Sciences Department, California State University Los Angeles, 5151 State University Drive, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - Forest Isbell
- Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, University of Minnesota, St Paul, MN, USA
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3
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Abstract
Agricultural land expansion and intensification, driven by human consumption of agricultural goods, are among the major threats to environmental degradation and biodiversity conservation. Land degradation can ultimately hamper agricultural production through a decrease in ecosystem services. Thus, designing viable land use policies is a key sustainability challenge. We develop a model describing the coupled dynamics of human demography and landscape composition, while imposing a trade-off between agricultural expansion and in-tensification. We model land use strategies spanning from low-intensity agriculture and high land conversion rates per person to high-intensity agriculture and low land conversion rates per person; and explore their consequences on the long-term dynamics of the coupled human-land system. We seek to characterise the strategies' viability in the long run; and understand the mechanisms that potentially lead to large-scale land degradation and population collapse due to resource scarcity. We show that the viability of land use strategies strongly depends on the land's intrinsic recovery rate. We also find that socio-ecological collapses occur when agricultural intensification is not accompanied by a sufficient decrease in land conversion. Based on these findings we stress the dangers of uninformed land use planning and the importance of precautionary behaviour for land use management and land use policy design.
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Affiliation(s)
- Diego Bengochea Paz
- Centre for Biodiversity Theory and Modelling, Theoretical and Experimental Ecology Station, CNRS UMR 5321, 09200 Moulis, France
| | - Kirsten Henderson
- Centre for Biodiversity Theory and Modelling, Theoretical and Experimental Ecology Station, CNRS UMR 5321, 09200 Moulis, France
| | - Michel Loreau
- Centre for Biodiversity Theory and Modelling, Theoretical and Experimental Ecology Station, CNRS UMR 5321, 09200 Moulis, France
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Reyers B, Selig ER. Global targets that reveal the social-ecological interdependencies of sustainable development. Nat Ecol Evol 2020; 4:1011-1019. [PMID: 32690904 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-020-1230-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 41] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/07/2019] [Accepted: 05/14/2020] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
We are approaching a reckoning point in 2020 for global targets that better articulate the interconnections between biodiversity, ecosystem services and sustainable development. The Convention on Biological Diversity's (CBD's) post-2020 global biodiversity framework and targets will be developed as we enter the last decade to meet the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and targets. Despite recent findings of unprecedented declines in biodiversity and ecosystem services and their negative impacts on SDGs, these declines remain largely unaccounted for in the SDG's upcoming 'decade of action'. We use a social-ecological systems framework to develop four recommendations for targets that capture the interdependencies between biodiversity, ecosystem services and sustainable development. These recommendations, which are primarily aimed at the CBD post-2020 process, include moving from separate social and ecological targets to social-ecological targets that: account for (1) the support system role of biodiversity and (2) ecosystem services in sustainable development. We further propose target advances that (3) capture social-ecological feedbacks reinforcing unsustainable outcomes, and (4) reveal indirect feedbacks hidden by current target systems. By making these social-ecological interdependencies explicit, it is possible to create coherent systems of global targets that account for the complex role of biodiversity and ecosystem services in sustainable development.
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Affiliation(s)
- Belinda Reyers
- Future Africa, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa. .,Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
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Gerling C, Wätzold F, Theesfeld I, Drechsler M, Nixdorf B, Isselstein J, Pirscher F, Rücker J, Sturm A. Modeling the co-evolution of natural, economic and governance subsystems in integrated agri-ecological systems: Perspectives and challenges✰. ECOLOGICAL COMPLEXITY 2019. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecocom.2019.100792] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/25/2022]
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6
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Maroto JM, Morán M. Transient dynamics: Equilibrium, collapse, and extinction in age-structured models. The case of the Northern cod stock. Ecol Modell 2019. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.02.006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/27/2022]
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7
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Henderson K, Loreau M. An ecological theory of changing human population dynamics. PEOPLE AND NATURE 2019. [DOI: 10.1002/pan3.8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/11/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Kirsten Henderson
- Centre for Biodiversity, Theory, and Modelling Theoretical and Experimental Ecology Station, CNRS Moulis France
| | - Michel Loreau
- Centre for Biodiversity, Theory, and Modelling Theoretical and Experimental Ecology Station, CNRS Moulis France
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Lafuite AS, Denise G, Loreau M. Sustainable Land-use Management Under Biodiversity Lag Effects. ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS : THE JOURNAL OF THE INTERNATIONAL SOCIETY FOR ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS 2018; 154:272-281. [PMID: 30214128 PMCID: PMC6130804 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.08.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
The destruction of natural habitats for agricultural production results in local biodiversity loss. Biodiversity loss in turn affects agricultural production indirectly through a range of biodiversity-dependent ecosystem services. Land conversion thus results in a negative externality, mediated by changes in biodiversity. When the consequences of this externality are delayed in time, lack of internalization results in overshoot-and-collapse dynamics, which are undesirable from a sustainability perspective. Here, we emphasize the importance of forward-looking policies for the long-term sustainability of human-nature interactions. We show that the internalization of this externality through a land tax can result in several win-win effects in the long run. First, more biodiversity is preserved at equilibrium, which increases the carrying capacity and total well-being of the human population. Second, a taxation path that maximizes the discounted sum of human utilities prevents or greatly alleviates overshoot-and-collapse crises, thus increasing the sustainability of the system. In particular, this result holds in the case of imperfect information regarding the precise temporal dynamics of biodiversity loss, suggesting that the design of efficient land-use management policies is possible despite incomplete ecological data. This study highlights the need to internalize biodiversity-dependent externalities through economic incentives, especially under uncertainty regarding long-term ecological dynamics.
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Affiliation(s)
- A.-S. Lafuite
- Centre for Biodiversity Theory and Modelling, Theoretical and Experimental Ecology Station, CNRS and Paul Sabatier University, Moulis, France
| | - G. Denise
- Centre for Biodiversity Theory and Modelling, Theoretical and Experimental Ecology Station, CNRS and Paul Sabatier University, Moulis, France
| | - M. Loreau
- Centre for Biodiversity Theory and Modelling, Theoretical and Experimental Ecology Station, CNRS and Paul Sabatier University, Moulis, France
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9
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Bosi S, Desmarchelier D. An economic model of metapopulation dynamics. Ecol Modell 2018. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2018.09.013] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
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10
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Cazalis V, Loreau M, Henderson K. Do we have to choose between feeding the human population and conserving nature? Modelling the global dependence of people on ecosystem services. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2018; 634:1463-1474. [PMID: 29710645 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.03.360] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/12/2018] [Revised: 03/28/2018] [Accepted: 03/29/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
The ability of the human population to continue growing depends strongly on the ecosystem services provided by nature. Nature, however, is becoming more and more degraded as the number of individuals increases, which could potentially threaten the future well-being of the human population. We use a dynamic model to conceptualise links between the global proportion of natural habitats and human demography, through four categories of ecosystem services (provisioning, regulating, cultural recreational and informational) to investigate the common future of nature and humanity in terms of size and well-being. Our model shows that there is generally a trade-off between the quality of life and human population size and identifies four short-term scenarios, corresponding to three long-term steady states of the model. First, human population could experience declines if nature becomes too degraded and regulating services diminish; second the majority of the population could be in a famine state, where the population continues to grow with minimal food provision. Between these scenarios, a desirable future scenario emerges from the model. It occurs if humans convert enough land to feed all the population, while maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem services. Finally, we find a fourth scenario, which combines famine and a decline in the population because of an overexploitation of land leading to a decrease in food production. Human demography is embedded in natural dynamics; the two factors should be considered together if we are to identify a desirable future for both nature and humans.
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Affiliation(s)
- Victor Cazalis
- Centre for Biodiversity Theory and Modelling, Theoretical and Experimental Ecology Station - UMR 5321, CNRS and Paul Sabatier University, 2 route du CNRS, Moulis 09200, France.
| | - Michel Loreau
- Centre for Biodiversity Theory and Modelling, Theoretical and Experimental Ecology Station - UMR 5321, CNRS and Paul Sabatier University, 2 route du CNRS, Moulis 09200, France
| | - Kirsten Henderson
- Centre for Biodiversity Theory and Modelling, Theoretical and Experimental Ecology Station - UMR 5321, CNRS and Paul Sabatier University, 2 route du CNRS, Moulis 09200, France
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11
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Henderson K, Loreau M. How ecological feedbacks between human population and land cover influence sustainability. PLoS Comput Biol 2018; 14:e1006389. [PMID: 30118474 PMCID: PMC6114924 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006389] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/27/2017] [Revised: 08/29/2018] [Accepted: 07/23/2018] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
Abstract
It is estimated that the Earth's biocapacity is unable to meet current demands, which begs the question: is a sustainable future possible for both humans and the environment? The UN projects a human population of approximately 11 billion by the end of the 21st century; requiring additional agricultural land, greater demands for natural resources, and technological advancements. We model human population over the next century, emphasizing feedbacks between natural and agricultural resource availability and human demography. We argue that an intensive agriculture approach to feeding the growing population is ill-conceived, without considering biodiversity and ecosystem services (e.g., nutrient cycling, pollination, water purification, pest control). The productivity of agricultural land and human population dynamics are dependent on the area of natural land-generally, tipping at 5 billion ha of natural land (approximately 40% of the Earth's terrestrial area). Furthermore, our model shows that an imprudent proactive approach (i.e., focusing on agriculture and ignoring ecosystem services) limits the success of reactive measures (i.e., restoration) in the future, while the inability to react to changes and recover natural systems leads to human population decline.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kirsten Henderson
- Centre for Biodiversity, Theory, and Modelling, Theoretical and Experimental Ecology Station, CNRS, Moulis, France
| | - Michel Loreau
- Centre for Biodiversity, Theory, and Modelling, Theoretical and Experimental Ecology Station, CNRS, Moulis, France
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12
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Lafuite AS, de Mazancourt C, Loreau M. Delayed behavioural shifts undermine the sustainability of social-ecological systems. Proc Biol Sci 2017; 284:20171192. [PMID: 29187624 PMCID: PMC5740268 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2017.1192] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/29/2017] [Accepted: 10/25/2017] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Natural habitat destruction and fragmentation generate a time-delayed loss of species and associated ecosystem services. As social-ecological systems (SESs) depend on a range of ecosystem services, lagged ecological dynamics may affect their long-term sustainability. Here, we investigate the role of consumption changes for sustainability, under a time-delayed ecological feedback on agricultural production. We use a stylized model that couples the dynamics of biodiversity, technology, human demography and compliance with a social norm prescribing sustainable consumption. Compliance with the sustainable norm reduces both the consumption footprint and the vulnerability of SESs to transient overshoot-and-collapse population crises. We show that the timing and interaction between social, demographic and ecological feedbacks govern the transient and long-term dynamics of the system. A sufficient level of social pressure (e.g. disapproval) applied on the unsustainable consumers leads to the stable coexistence of unsustainable and sustainable or mixed equilibria, where both defectors and conformers coexist. Under bistability conditions, increasing extinction debts reduces the resilience of the system, thus favouring abrupt regime shifts towards unsustainable pathways. Given recent evidence of large extinction debts, such results call for farsightedness and a better understanding of time delays when studying the sustainability of coupled SESs.
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Affiliation(s)
- A-S Lafuite
- Centre for Biodiversity Theory and Modelling, Theoretical and Experimental Ecology Station, CNRS and Paul Sabatier University, Moulis, France
| | - C de Mazancourt
- Centre for Biodiversity Theory and Modelling, Theoretical and Experimental Ecology Station, CNRS and Paul Sabatier University, Moulis, France
| | - M Loreau
- Centre for Biodiversity Theory and Modelling, Theoretical and Experimental Ecology Station, CNRS and Paul Sabatier University, Moulis, France
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On Consistency Test Method of Expert Opinion in Ecological Security Assessment. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2017; 14:ijerph14091012. [PMID: 28869570 PMCID: PMC5615549 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph14091012] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/16/2017] [Revised: 08/30/2017] [Accepted: 09/01/2017] [Indexed: 02/08/2023]
Abstract
To reflect the initiative design and initiative of human security management and safety warning, ecological safety assessment is of great value. In the comprehensive evaluation of regional ecological security with the participation of experts, the expert's individual judgment level, ability and the consistency of the expert's overall opinion will have a very important influence on the evaluation result. This paper studies the consistency measure and consensus measure based on the multiplicative and additive consistency property of fuzzy preference relation (FPR). We firstly propose the optimization methods to obtain the optimal multiplicative consistent and additively consistent FPRs of individual and group judgments, respectively. Then, we put forward a consistency measure by computing the distance between the original individual judgment and the optimal individual estimation, along with a consensus measure by computing the distance between the original collective judgment and the optimal collective estimation. In the end, we make a case study on ecological security for five cities. Result shows that the optimal FPRs are helpful in measuring the consistency degree of individual judgment and the consensus degree of collective judgment.
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