Prediction of prognosis in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients with respiratory failure: A comparison of three nutritional assessment methods

Development and validation of a prospective study to predict the risk of readmission within 365 days of respiratory failure: based on a random survival forest algorithm combined with COX regression modeling

BACKGROUND

There is a need to develop and validate a widely applicable nomogram for predicting readmission of respiratory failure patients within 365 days.

METHODS

We recruited patients with respiratory failure at the First People's Hospital of Yancheng and the People's Hospital of Jiangsu. We used the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression to select significant features for multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis. The Random Survival Forest algorithm was employed to construct a model for the variables that obtained a coefficient of 0 following LASSO regression, and subsequently determine the prediction score. Independent risk factors and the score were used to develop a multivariate COX regression for creating the line graph. We used the Harrell concordance index to quantify the predictive accuracy and the receiver operating characteristic curve to evaluate model performance. Additionally, we used decision curve analysiso assess clinical usefulness.

RESULTS

The LASSO regression and multivariate Cox regression were used to screen hemoglobin, diabetes and pneumonia as risk variables combined with Score to develop a column chart model. The C index is 0.927 in the development queue, 0.924 in the internal validation queue, and 0.922 in the external validation queue. At the same time, the predictive model also showed excellent calibration and higher clinical value.

CONCLUSIONS

A nomogram predicting readmission of patients with respiratory failure within 365 days based on three independent risk factors and a jointly developed random survival forest algorithm has been developed and validated. This improves the accuracy of predicting patient readmission and provides practical information for individualized treatment decisions.

The clinical characteristics and treatment response of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease with low body mass index

Background: This study aimed to analyze the clinical characteristics and treatment response of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) with low body mass index (BMI). Methods: In this cross-sectional study, we enrolled patients with stable COPD from the database setup by the Second Xiangya Hospital of Central South University. We classified the patients into three groups based on BMI: low-BMI (<18.5 kg/m²), normal-BMI (≥18.5 and <24.0 kg/m²), and high-BMI (≥24 kg/m²) groups. We defined clinically important deterioration (CID) as a COPD Assessment Test (CAT) score increase of ≥2 and minimum clinically important difference (MCID) as a CAT score decrease of ≥2 during 6 months of follow-up. We recorded the number of exacerbations and mortality during 1 year of follow-up. Results: A total of 910 COPD patients were included with 144 (15.8%) patients in low-BMI, 475 (52.2%) in normal-BMI, and 291 (32.0%) in high-BMI groups. Patients with low BMI had worse pulmonary function, higher symptom scores, and exacerbations in the past year compared with normal- and high-BMI groups (p < 0.05). Logistic regression analysis revealed that age, Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease grades 3 and 4, and hospitalizations in the past year were independent risk factors for patients with low BMI (p < 0.05). After 1 year of follow-up, patients with low BMI had higher mortality and number of hospitalizations. Patients with low BMI were more likely to attain CID and less likely to attain MCID compared with patients with high BMI (p < 0.05). In addition, patients with low BMI treated with long-acting β2-agonist (LABA)+long-acting muscarinic antagonist (LAMA) and LABA+LAMA+inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) were more likely to attain MCID than those treated with LABA+ICS and LAMA (p < 0.05). Conclusion: COPD patients with low BMI had worse pulmonary function, higher symptom scores, and higher risk of future hospitalizations and mortality and were less likely to attain MCID and more likely to attain CID. It is worth noting that patients with low BMI treated with LABA+LAMA and LABA+LAMA+ICS were more likely to attain MCID than those treated with LABA+ICS and LAMA.

Global prevalence of malnutrition in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: Systemic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Malnutrition is a significant comorbidity among chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), but it has been often ignored. To date, the prevalence of malnutrition and its association with clinical parameters in the patients with COPD have not been well described. We aimed to investigate the prevalence of malnutrition and the prevalence of at-risk for malnutrition among COPD and the clinical impact of malnutrition on patients with COPD in a systematic review and meta-analysis.

METHODS

PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science were searched for articles describing the prevalence of malnutrition and/or at-risk for malnutrition from January 2010 to December 2021. Eligibility screening, data extraction, and quality assessment of the retrieved articles were conducted independently by two reviewers. Meta-analyses were performed to determine the prevalence of malnutrition and at-risk for malnutrition and the clinical impact of malnutrition on patients with COPD. Meta-regression and subgroup analyses were performed to explore the sources of heterogeneity. Comparisons were made between individuals with and without malnutrition according to pulmonary function, degree of dyspnea, exercise capacity, and mortality risk.

RESULTS

Out of the 4156 references identified, 101 were read full-text, of which 36 studies were included. The total number of involved patients included in this meta-analysis was 5289. The prevalence of malnutrition was 30.0% (95% CI 20.3 to 40.6), compared with an at-risk prevalence of 50.0% (95% CI 40.8 to 59.2). Both prevalences were associated with regions and measurement tools. The prevalence of malnutrition was associated with COPD phase (acute exacerbations and stable). COPD with malnutrition showed lower forced expiratory volume 1 s % predicted (mean difference (MD) -7.19, 95% CI -11.86 to -2.52), higher modified Medical Research Council dyspnea scores (MD 0.38, 95% CI 0.12 to 0.64), poorer exercise tolerance (standardized mean difference -0.29, 95% CI -0.54 to -0.05), and higher mortality risk (hazard ratio 2.24, 95% CI 1.23 to 4.06) compared to COPD without malnutrition.

CONCLUSION

Malnutrition and at-risk for malnutrition are common among COPD. Malnutrition negatively impacts important clinical outcomes of COPD.

Nutritional State and COPD: Effects on Dyspnoea and Exercise Tolerance

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is a disease that is spreading worldwide and is responsible for a huge number of deaths annually. It is characterized by progressive and often irreversible airflow obstruction, with a heterogeneous clinical manifestation based on disease severity. Along with pulmonary impairment, COPD patients display different grades of malnutrition that can be linked to a worsening of respiratory function and to a negative prognosis. Nutritional impairment seems to be related to a reduced exercise tolerance and to dyspnoea becoming a major determinant in patient-perceived quality of life. Many strategies have been proposed to limit the effects of malnutrition on disease progression, but there are still limited data available to determine which of them is the best option to manage COPD patients. The purpose of this review is to highlight the main aspects of COPD-related malnutrition and to underline the importance of poor nutritional state on muscle energetics, exercise tolerance and dyspnoea.

The Relationship between Nutritional Risk and the Most Common Chronic Diseases in Hospitalized Geriatric Population from Central Poland

The aim of this study was to assess the relationship between Nutrition Risk Screening 2002 (NRS-2002) and the prevalence of concomitant chronic diseases among hospitalized older adults. This study included 2122 consecutively hospitalized older participants with an average age of 82 years. The criteria to participate were the ability to communicate and give consent. In multivariate design, the prevalence of nutritional risk with at least 3 points in the NRS-2002 score was associated with the presence of stroke, atrial fibrillation, dementia and pressure ulcers. Patients with arterial hypertension, lipid disorders, osteoarthritis and urine incontinence had a significantly lower (better) NRS-2002 score. The explanation of the inverse relationship between some disorders and nutritional risk may be their occurrence in relatively earlier age and the relationship with body mass index. In conclusion, the study revealed which medical conditions coexist with the increased nutritional risk in a “real-world” hospitalized geriatric population. The hospital admission of an older subject with stroke, atrial fibrillation, dementia or pressure ulcers should primarily draw attention to the nutritional risk of the patient.

Sarcopenia index as a predictor of clinical outcomes among older adult patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Sarcopenia is a geriatric syndrome with progressive loss of skeletal muscle mass and function and has a negative impact on clinical outcomes associated with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Recently, the sarcopenia index (SI) was developed as a surrogate marker of sarcopenia based upon the serum creatinine to cystatin C ratio. We aimed to assess the value of SI for predicting clinically important outcomes among elderly patients with acute exacerbation of COPD (AECOPD).

METHODS

This cross-sectional study included elderly patients with AECOPD in China from 2017 to 2021. Clinical data were collected from medical records, and serum creatinine and cystatin C were measured. Outcomes included respiratory failure, heart failure, severe pneumonia, invasive mechanical ventilation, and mortality. Binary logistic regression was used to analyze the association between SI and clinical outcomes.

RESULTS

A total of 306 patients (260 men, 46 women, age range 60-88 years) were enrolled in this study. Among the total patients, the incidence of respiratory failure and severe pneumonia was negatively associated with SI values. After adjusting for potential confounding factors, binary logistic regression analyses showed that a higher SI was still independently associated with a lower risk of respiratory failure (odds ratio [OR]: 0.27, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.13-0.56, P < 0.05). In subgroup analysis, the incidence of respiratory failure was negatively associated with SI values in groups with both frequent exacerbation and non-frequent exacerbation. After adjustment for potential confounders, binary logistic regression analyses showed that a higher SI was also independently associated with a lower risk of respiratory failure in both groups (OR: 0.19, 95% CI: 0.06-0.64 and OR: 0.31, 95% CI: 0.11-0.85). However, there were no significant differences in the correlations between SI and the risk of heart failure, invasive mechanical ventilation, and mortality in all groups.

CONCLUSION

The SI based on serum creatinine and cystatin C can predict respiratory failure in patients with AECOPD and either frequent or infrequent exacerbations. This indicator provides a convenient tool for clinicians when managing patients with AECOPD in daily clinical practice.

Relationship between human serum albumin and in-hospital mortality in critical care patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Background

The relationship between human serum albumin levels and the prognosis of critical care patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) remains controversial.

Objective

To investigate the relationship between serum albumin levels and in-hospital mortality in critical care patients with COPD. METHODS: This study used a retrospective observational cohort from the Medical Information in Intensive Care database (MIMIC-IV) in the United States. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to assess the relationship between serum albumin levels and in-hospital mortality. A restricted cubic spline line was also used to explore nonlinear relationship.

Results

A total of 3,398 critical care patients with COPD were included. The overall in-hospital mortality was 12.4%. We found a negative relationship between human serum albumin and in-hospital mortality (HR = 0.97, 95% CI 0.96-0.99, p = 0.002).

Conclusion

In critical care patients with COPD, there was a negative association between human serum albumin and in-hospital mortality.

Association of reduced BMI, length of hospital stay, mortality, and malnutrition diagnosis in patients with acute exacerbation COPD: A secondary analysis of a cohort study

BACKGROUND

Body mass index (BMI) presents prognostic value in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and despite its limitations in capturing malnutrition, its use is common to assess nutritional status. We aimed to confirm the association between BMI and in-hospital outcomes in acute exacerbation of COPD (AECOPD) and its inaccuracy in diagnosing malnutrition.

METHODS

We diagnosed malnutrition using the Subjective global assessment (SGA), Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics-American Society for Parenteral and Enteral Nutrition (AND-ASPEN), and two cutoff values for reduced BMI (age-related and ≤ 21.0). BMI accuracy was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC-ROC) curve and SGA and AND-ASPEN as references. We evaluated in-hospital mortality and hospital stay outcomes and constructed logistic regression models.

RESULTS

The median hospital stay was 11 (7-18) days, and 7.5% of patients died. Malnutrition prevalence according to BMI, SGA, and AND-ASPEN was 21.4% (mean of both cutoff values), 50%, and 54%, respectively. Reduced BMI presented low agreement (κ = 0.315-0.383) and unsatisfactory accuracy (AUC-ROC curve = 0.333-0.679) with reference methods for malnutrition diagnosis. Age-related reduced BMI (odds ratio [OR] = 2.11; 95% CI, 1.10-4.04) and BMI ≤ 21.0 (OR = 2.25; 95% CI, 1.13-4.48) were associated with hospital stays longer than the median in adjusted models, but not in-hospital mortality.

CONCLUSION

BMI was inaccurate in identifying malnutrition in hospitalized patients with AECOPD and was associated with hospital stays longer than ten days.

Serum osmolarity does not predict mortality in patients with respiratory failure

We aimed to determine the parameters that affect mortality in pulmonary intensive care units that are faster and inexpensive to determine than existing scoring systems. The relationship between serum osmolarity and prognosis was demonstrated for predialysis patients, in acute pulmonary embolism, heart failure, acute coronary syndrome, myocardial infarction, and acute spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage in the literature. We hypothesized that serum osmolarity, which is routinely evaluated, may have prognostic significance in patients with respiratory failure.This study comprised 449 patients treated in the Pulmonary Intensive Care Clinic (PICU) of our hospital between January 1, 2020, and December 31, 2020. The modified Charlson Comorbidity Index (mCCI), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Assessment (APACHE II), Sequential Organ Failure Evaluation Score (SOFA), Nutrition Risk Screening 2002 (NRS-2002), and hospitalization serum osmolarity levels were measured.Of the 449 patients included in the study, 65% (n = 292) were female and the mean age of all patients was 69.86 ± 1.72 years. About 83.1% (n = 373) of the patients included in the study were discharged with good recovery. About 4.9% (n = 22) were transferred to the ward because their intensive care needs were over. About 6.9% (n = 31) were transferred to the tertiary intensive care unit after their status deteriorated. About 5.1% (n = 23) died in the PICU. In the mortality group, APACHE II (P = .005), mCCI (P < .001), NRS-2002 total score (P < .001), and SOFA score (P < .001) were significantly higher. There was no statistically significant difference between the groups in terms of serum osmolarity levels.Although we could not determine serum osmolarity as a practical method to predict patient prognosis in this study, we assume that our results will guide future studies on this subject.

Associations of Clinical Characteristics and Intestinal Flora Imbalance in Stable Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Patients and the Construction of an Early Warning Model

Objective

Establish a simple predictive model and scoring rule that is suitable for clinical medical staff in respiratory departments to assess intestinal flora imbalance occurrence in stable chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients.

Methods

From January 1, 2019, to December 31, 2020, COPD patients (195 cases) – who attended the Outpatient Department, Respiratory and Critical Care, Yixing Hospital, Jiangsu University – were enrolled in a cross-sectional study. Based on stool examination results, patients were divided into experimental (41 cases) and control (154 cases) groups. Single-factor and logistic regression analyses were performed with the baseline data of the two groups to obtain a new predictive model, which was further simplified.

Results

Five predictive factors composed the model: body mass index (BMI), serum albumin (ALB), Charlson’s Comorbidity Index (CCI), gastrointestinal symptom score (GSRs), and Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) classification. The model to predict intestinal flora imbalance in stable COPD patients had an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.953 [95% CI (0.924, 0.982)]. After simplifying the scoring rules, the AUC was 0.767 [95% CI (0.676, 0.858)].

Conclusion

In the current study, we obtained a model that could effectively predict intestinal flora imbalance risk in stable COPD patients, being suitable for implementation in early treatments to improve the prognosis. Moreover, all indicators can be easily and simply obtained.

[Nutritional risk and clinical outcomes in patients diagnosed with COVID-19 in a high-complexity hospital network]

INTRODUCTION

the identification of nutritional risk at hospital admission is important to establish timely interventions in the COVID-19 patient care cycle, due to a high risk of it being associated with complications.

OBJECTIVE

to determine the association between the level of nutritional risk upon admission and in-hospital mortality at 28 days in patients diagnosed with COVID-19 treated between March and October 2020 in two hospital institutions in Colombia.

METHODS

a retrospective, observational study. Hospitalized patients with a diagnosis of COVID-19 were included and assessed by the Nutrition Service using the nutritional risk identification in emergencies scale, adapted from the NRS 2002 scale. In-hospital mortality at 28 days was analyzed as the primary endpoint, and hospital stay, admission to Intensive Care Unit (ICU), and requirement for mechanical ventilation as secondary endpoints.

RESULTS

a total of 1230 patients were included, with a mean age of 65.43 ± 15.90 years, mainly men (57.1 %, n = 702). A high nutritional risk (≥ 2 points) was identified in 74.3 % (n = 914). Patients with a high nutritional risk had a greater probability of in-hospital death at 28 days (HRadj: 1.64; 95 % CI: 1.11-2.44), and a greater risk of requiring mechanical ventilation (OR = 1.78; 95 % CI: 1.11-2.86) or ICU admission (OR = 1.478; 95 % CI: 1.05-2.09), as well as hospital stay longer than 7 days (OR = 1.91; 95 % CI: 1.47-2.48).

CONCLUSIONS

patients with a diagnosis of COVID-19 at high nutritional risk had a significantly higher in-hospital mortality at 28 days and a higher probability of requiring mechanical ventilation, ICU admission, and prolonged hospital stay.

AND-ASPEN and ESPEN consensus, and GLIM criteria for malnutrition identification in AECOPD patients: a longitudinal study comparing concurrent and predictive validity

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Malnutrition in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients is prevalent and usually assessed by body mass index (BMI), which can lead to misdiagnosis. The subjective global assessment (SGA) is the reference method for this diagnose in hospitalized patients. In the last decade, new tools have emerged Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics-American Society for Parenteral and Enteral Nutrition [AND-ASPEN], European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism [ESPEN], and Global Leadership Initiative on Malnutrition [GLIM]). Therefore, this study aimed to assess the concurrent and predictive validity of these tools in acute exacerbated COPD (AECOPD) patients.

SUBJECTS/METHODS

Prospective cohort study with hospitalized AECOPD patients. Malnutrition was diagnosed by SGA (reference method), AND-ASPEN, ESPEN, and GLIM consensus. Hospital length of stay (LOS) and mortality were the outcomes evaluated.

RESULTS

In 241 patients (46.5% males; 68.3 ± 10.2 years), malnutrition was found in 50.0% by SGA, 54.4% by AND-ASPEN, 20.2% by ESPEN, and 47.8% by GLIM. AND-ASPEN had the best accuracy (AUC = 0.837; 95% CI 0.783-0.841) and concordance (kappa = 0.674) with SGA and it was an independent predictor of prolonged LOS (OR = 1.73; 95% CI 1.01-3.37). ESPEN consensus did not agree with SGA, but was associated with prolonged LOS (OR = 2.57 95% CI, 1.27-5.20). The GLIM had good concordance (kappa = 0.533) and accuracy with SGA (AUC = 0.768; 95% CI 0.701-0.835), but was not associated with outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

The AND-ASPEN was the most accurate tool for diagnosing malnutrition in AECOPD patients and was an independent predictor of prolonged LOS.

Nutritional risk is a predictor for long-term mortality: 5-Year follow-up of the EFFORT trial

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The nutritional risk screening (NRS 2002) is a validated screening tool for malnutrition. This study aims to investigate the prognostic value of the NRS 2002 and its individual components regarding long-term mortality and adverse outcomes in a well-characterized cohort of medical inpatients.

METHODS

We performed a 5-year follow-up investigation of patients included in the investigator-initiated, prospective, randomized controlled multicenter EFFORT trial that evaluated the effects of individualized nutritional intervention vs. standard hospital food. We used multivariable cox regression analyses adjusted for randomisation arm, study centre, comorbidities and main admission diagnosis to investigate associations between NRS 2002 total scores at time of hospital admission and several long-term outcomes.

RESULTS

We had confirmed mortality data over the mean follow-up time of 3.2 years in 1874 from the initial cohort of 2028 EFFORT patients. Mortality showed a step-wise increase in patients with NRS 3 (289/565 [51.2%]) and NRS 4 (355/717 [49.6%]) to 59.5% (353/593) in patient with NRS≥5 corresponding to an adjusted Hazard Ratio (HR) of 1.28 (95%CI 1.15 to 1.42, p ≤ 0.001) for mortality after one year and 1.13 (95%CI 1.05 to 1.23, p = 0.002) for the overall time period. All individual components of NRS including disease severity, food intake, weight loss and BMI provided prognostic information regarding long-term mortality risk.

CONCLUSION

Nutritional risk mirrored by a NRS 2002 total score is a strong and independent predictor of long-term mortality and morbidity in polymorbid medical inpatients particularly in patients with high nutritional risk with an NRS ≥5 points.

Nutritional Status and Indicators of 2-Year Mortality and Re-Hospitalizations: Experience from the Internal Clinic Departments in Tertiary Hospital in Croatia

We aimed to provide insight into nutritional and clinical indicators of malnutrition risk and their influence on two-year mortality and re-hospitalization rate among patients hospitalized in internal clinic departments in the tertiary hospital in Croatia. Initially, data on 346 participants were obtained, while 218 of them where followed-up two years later. At baseline, the majority of participants were old and polymorbid (62.1% suffered from arterial hypertension, 29.5% from cancer, and 29.2% from diabetes). Even apparently presenting with satisfying anthropometric indices, 38.4% of them were at-risk for malnutrition when screened with the Nutritional Risk Screening-2002 (NRS-2002) questionnaire (NRS-2002 ≥ 3). More importantly, only 15.3% of all participants were prescribed an oral nutritional supplement during hospitalization. Those that were at-risk for malnutrition suffered significantly more often from cancer (54.9% vs. 20.6%; p < 0.001) and died more often in the follow-up period (42.7% vs. 23.5%; p < 0.003). Their anthropometric indices were generally normal and contradictory 46.3% were overweight and obese (body mass index (BMI) > 25 kg/m²). Only 36.6% of nutritionally endangered participants used an oral supplement in the follow-up period. NRS-2002 ≥ 3 correlated with anthropometric indices, glomerular filtration rate, age, and length of the initial hospital stay. Unlike other studies, NRS-2002 ≥ 3 was not an independent predictor of mortality and re-hospitalizations; other clinical, rather than nutritional parameters proved to be better predictors. Patients in our hospital are neither adequately nutritionally assessed nor managed. There is an urgent need to develop strategies to prevent, identify, and treat malnutrition in our hospital and post-discharge.

Evaluation of Malnutrition Risk in Lung Transplant Candidates Using the Nutritional Risk Index

BACKGROUND

Malnutrition in lung transplant (LTx) candidates is an important risk factor for adverse outcomes. We sought to evaluate the Nutritional Risk Index (NRI) in LTx candidates, a validated measure of malnutrition risk in chronic disease. We aimed to characterize malnutrition risk using NRI, evaluate change in body weight between nutritional risk groups, and assess association of malnutrition risk with pretransplant and posttransplant outcomes.

METHODS

Retrospective, single-center cohort study of LTx candidates (2014-2015) evaluated by a dietitian before listing. Nutritional parameters, weight change pretransplant and posttransplant, and clinical outcomes were abstracted up to 1-year posttransplant. NRI was calculated as follows: (1.519 × albumin) + (41.7 × current weight/ideal weight) with high malnutrition risk defined as the lowest quartile of NRI for cystic fibrosis (CF) and non-CF patients.

RESULTS

The cohort comprises 247 LTx candidates (57% male; median age 59 y; non-CF 88%). Non-CF candidates had a greater mean NRI compared with CF patients (109 ± 11 versus 95 ± 12; P < 0.0001). 86% with high malnutrition risk maintained/gained weight (≥5%) pretransplant. In 196 LTx recipients, malnutrition risk was not associated with hospital stay, discharge disposition, or 1-year mortality. The median percent weight gain for LTx recipients in the first year was 10.5% (4.0-20.1), with high malnutrition risk recipients having comparable or greater weight gain to the low-risk group (mean difference for non CF: 6.8%; P = 0.02 and CF: -3.8%; P = 0.65).

CONCLUSIONS

Malnutrition risk assessed with NRI was not prognostic of posttransplant outcomes in this retrospective cohort. LTx candidates with high malnutrition risk were able to maintain their weight pretransplant and demonstrated considerable weight gain in the first-year posttransplant.