Inferring the 1985-2014 impact of mobile phone use on selected brain cancer subtypes using Bayesian structural time series and synthetic controls

Impact of non-pharmacological interventions on incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease during the COVID-19 pandemic: a large population-based observational study

BACKGROUND

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a highly prevalent and contagious disease, particularly in children under five years old. Its transmission route resembles that of COVID-19. During the COVID-19 pandemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were implemented to curb viral spread, which may have concurrently reduced HFMD incidence.

METHODS

Utilizing HFMD surveillance data from the Anhui Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention (2015-2020) and varying levels of COVID-19 emergency measures, a Bayesian structural time series model predicted the counterfactual HFMD incidence and quantified the causal relationships with NPIs.

RESULTS

During the implementation of NPIs, the 915 cases observed between weeks 4 and 20 of 2020 reflected a 94.9% reduction from the expected cases number (915 vs. 17,790), avoiding approximately 16,875 cases. The relative reduction of male cases (95.2%) was similar to that of female cases (94.3%). Different age groups the number of cases decline roughly similar were 93.1%, 95.3%, 97.8%, 94.9%.

CONCLUSION

During the COVID-19 pandemic, NPIs implemented in response to COVID-19 effectively reduced HFMD incidence. NPIs should be promoted for future control of enteric infectious diseases such as HFMD.

The effect of exposure to radiofrequency fields on cancer risk in the general and working population: A systematic review of human observational studies - Part I: Most researched outcomes

BACKGROUND

The objective of this review was to assess the quality and strength of the evidence provided by human observational studies for a causal association between exposure to radiofrequency electromagnetic fields (RF-EMF) and risk of the most investigated neoplastic diseases.

METHODS

Eligibility criteria: We included cohort and case-control studies of neoplasia risks in relation to three types of exposure to RF-EMF: near-field, head-localized, exposure from wireless phone use (SR-A); far-field, whole body, environmental exposure from fixed-site transmitters (SR-B); near/far-field occupational exposures from use of hand-held transceivers or RF-emitting equipment in the workplace (SR-C). While no restrictions on tumour type were applied, in the current paper we focus on incidence-based studies of selected "critical" neoplasms of the central nervous system (brain, meninges, pituitary gland, acoustic nerve) and salivary gland tumours (SR-A); brain tumours and leukaemias (SR-B, SR-C). We focussed on investigations of specific neoplasms in relation to specific exposure sources (i.e. E-O pairs), noting that a single article may address multiple E-O pairs.

INFORMATION SOURCES

Eligible studies were identified by literature searches through Medline, Embase, and EMF-Portal. Risk-of-bias (RoB) assessment: We used a tailored version of the Office of Health Assessment and Translation (OHAT) RoB tool to evaluate each study's internal validity. At the summary RoB step, studies were classified into three tiers according to their overall potential for bias (low, moderate and high).

DATA SYNTHESIS

We synthesized the study results using random effects restricted maximum likelihood (REML) models (overall and subgroup meta-analyses of dichotomous and categorical exposure variables), and weighted mixed effects models (dose-response meta-analyses of lifetime exposure intensity). Evidence assessment: Confidence in evidence was assessed using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations (GRADE) approach.

RESULTS

We included 63 aetiological articles, published between 1994 and 2022, with participants from 22 countries, reporting on 119 different E-O pairs. RF-EMF exposure from mobile phones (ever or regular use vs no or non-regular use) was not associated with an increased risk of glioma [meta-estimate of the relative risk (mRR) = 1.01, 95 % CI = 0.89-1.13), meningioma (mRR = 0.92, 95 % CI = 0.82-1.02), acoustic neuroma (mRR = 1.03, 95 % CI = 0.85-1.24), pituitary tumours (mRR = 0.81, 95 % CI = 0.61-1.06), salivary gland tumours (mRR = 0.91, 95 % CI = 0.78-1.06), or paediatric (children, adolescents and young adults) brain tumours (mRR = 1.06, 95 % CI = 0.74-1.51), with variable degree of across-study heterogeneity (I2 = 0 %-62 %). There was no observable increase in mRRs for the most investigated neoplasms (glioma, meningioma, and acoustic neuroma) with increasing time since start (TSS) use of mobile phones, cumulative call time (CCT), or cumulative number of calls (CNC). Cordless phone use was not significantly associated with risks of glioma [mRR = 1.04, 95 % CI = 0.74-1.46; I2 = 74 %) meningioma, (mRR = 0.91, 95 % CI = 0.70-1.18; I2 = 59 %), or acoustic neuroma (mRR = 1.16; 95 % CI = 0.83-1.61; I2 = 63 %). Exposure from fixed-site transmitters (broadcasting antennas or base stations) was not associated with childhood leukaemia or paediatric brain tumour risks, independently of the level of the modelled RF exposure. Glioma risk was not significantly increased following occupational RF exposure (ever vs never), and no differences were detected between increasing categories of modelled cumulative exposure levels.

DISCUSSION

In the sensitivity analyses of glioma, meningioma, and acoustic neuroma risks in relation to mobile phone use (ever use, TSS, CCT, and CNC) the presented results were robust and not affected by changes in study aggregation. In a leave-one-out meta-analyses of glioma risk in relation to mobile phone use we identified one influential study. In subsequent meta-analyses performed after excluding this study, we observed a substantial reduction in the mRR and the heterogeneity between studies, for both the contrast Ever vs Never (regular) use (mRR = 0.96, 95 % CI = 0.87-1.07, I2 = 47 %), and in the analysis by increasing categories of TSS ("<5 years": mRR = 0.97, 95 % CI = 0.83-1.14, I2 = 41 %; "5-9 years ": mRR = 0.96, 95 % CI = 0.83-1.11, I2 = 34 %; "10+ years": mRR = 0.97, 95 % CI = 0.87-1.08, I2 = 10 %). There was limited variation across studies in RoB for the priority domains (selection/attrition, exposure and outcome information), with the number of studies evenly classified as at low and moderate risk of bias (49 % tier-1 and 51 % tier-2), and no studies classified as at high risk of bias (tier-3). The impact of the biases on the study results (amount and direction) proved difficult to predict, and the RoB tool was inherently unable to account for the effect of competing biases. However, the sensitivity meta-analyses stratified on bias-tier, showed that the heterogeneity observed in our main meta-analyses across studies of glioma and acoustic neuroma in the upper TSS stratum (I2 = 77 % and 76 %), was explained by the summary RoB-tier. In the tier-1 study subgroup, the mRRs (95 % CI; I2) in long-term (10+ years) users were 0.95 (0.85-1.05; 5.5 %) for glioma, and 1.00 (0.78-1.29; 35 %) for acoustic neuroma. The time-trend simulation studies, evaluated as complementary evidence in line with a triangulation approach for external validity, were consistent in showing that the increased risks observed in some case-control studies were incompatible with the actual incidence rates of glioma/brain cancer observed in several countries and over long periods. Three of these simulation studies consistently reported that RR estimates > 1.5 with a 10+ years induction period were definitely implausible, and could be used to set a "credibility benchmark". In the sensitivity meta-analyses of glioma risk in the upper category of TSS excluding five studies reporting implausible effect sizes, we observed strong reductions in both the mRR [mRR of 0.95 (95 % CI = 0.86-1.05)], and the degree of heterogeneity across studies (I2 = 3.6 %).

CONCLUSIONS

Consistently with the published protocol, our final conclusions were formulated separately for each exposure-outcome combination, and primarily based on the line of evidence with the highest confidence, taking into account the ranking of RF sources by exposure level as inferred from dosimetric studies, and the external coherence with findings from time-trend simulation studies (limited to glioma in relation to mobile phone use). For near field RF-EMF exposure to the head from mobile phone use, there was moderate certainty evidence that it likely does not increase the risk of glioma, meningioma, acoustic neuroma, pituitary tumours, and salivary gland tumours in adults, or of paediatric brain tumours. For near field RF-EMF exposure to the head from cordless phone use, there was low certainty evidence that it may not increase the risk of glioma, meningioma or acoustic neuroma. For whole-body far-field RF-EMF exposure from fixed-site transmitters (broadcasting antennas or base stations), there was moderate certainty evidence that it likely does not increase childhood leukaemia risk and low certainty evidence that it may not increase the risk of paediatric brain tumours. There were no studies eligible for inclusion investigating RF-EMF exposure from fixed-site transmitters and critical tumours in adults. For occupational RF-EMF exposure, there was low certainty evidence that it may not increase the risk of brain cancer/glioma, but there were no included studies of leukemias (the second critical outcome in SR-C). The evidence rating regarding paediatric brain tumours in relation to environmental RF exposure from fixed-site transmitters should be interpreted with caution, due to the small number of studies. Similar interpretative cautions apply to the evidence rating of the relation between glioma/brain cancer and occupational RF exposure, due to differences in exposure sources and metrics across the few included studies.

OTHER

This project was commissioned and partially funded by the World Health Organization (WHO). Co-financing was provided by the New Zealand Ministry of Health; the Istituto Superiore di Sanità in its capacity as a WHO Collaborating Centre for Radiation and Health; and ARPANSA as a WHO Collaborating Centre for Radiation Protection.

REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42021236798. Published protocol: [(Lagorio et al., 2021) DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2021.106828].

Multilayer factors associated with excess all-cause mortality during the omicron and non-omicron waves of the COVID-19 pandemic: time series analysis in 29 countries

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in significant excess mortality globally. However, the differences in excess mortality between the Omicron and non-Omicron waves, as well as the contribution of local epidemiological characteristics, population immunity, and social factors to excess mortality, remain poorly understood. This study aims to solve the above problems.

METHODS

Weekly all-cause death data and covariates from 29 countries for the period 2015-2022 were collected and used. The Bayesian Structured Time Series Model predicted expected weekly deaths, stratified by gender and age groups for the period 2020-2022. The quantile-based g-computation approach accounted for the effects of factors on the excess all-cause mortality rate. Sensitivity analyses were conducted using alternative Omicron proportion thresholds.

RESULTS

From the first week of 2021 to the 30th week of 2022, the estimated cumulative number of excess deaths due to COVID-19 globally was nearly 1.39 million. The estimated weekly excess all-cause mortality rate in the 29 countries was approximately 2.17 per 100,000 (95% CI: 1.47 to 2.86). Weekly all-cause excess mortality rates were significantly higher in both male and female groups and all age groups during the non-Omicron wave, except for those younger than 15 years (P < 0.001). Sensitivity analysis confirmed the stability of the results. Positive associations with all-cause excess mortality were found for the constituent ratio of non-Omicron in all variants, new cases per million, positive rate, cardiovascular death rate, people fully vaccinated per hundred, extreme poverty, hospital patients per million humans, people vaccinated per hundred, and stringency index. Conversely, other factors demonstrated negative associations with all-cause excess mortality from the first week of 2021 to the 30th week of 2022.

CONCLUSION

Our findings indicate that the COVID-19 Omicron wave was associated with lower excess mortality compared to the non-Omicron wave. This study's analysis of the factors influencing excess deaths suggests that effective strategies to mitigate all-cause mortality include improving economic conditions, promoting widespread vaccination, and enhancing overall population health. Implementing these measures could significantly reduce the burden of COVID-19, facilitate coexistence with the virus, and potentially contribute to its elimination.

Aggressiveness of Grade 4 Gliomas of Adults

Grade 4 adult gliomas are IDH-mutant astrocytomas and IDH-wildtype glioblastomas. They have a very high mortality rate, with survival at 5 years not exceeding 5%. We aimed to conduct a clinical imaging and morphogenetic characterization of them, as well as to identify the main negative prognostic factors that give them such aggressiveness. We conducted a ten-year retrospective study. We followed the clinical, imaging, and morphogenetic aspects of the cases. We analyzed immunohistochemical markers (IDH1, Ki-67, and nestin) and FISH tests based on the CDKN2A gene. The obtained results were analyzed using SPSS Statistics with the appropriate parameters. The clinical aspects representing negative prognostic factors were represented by patients’ comorbidities: hypertension (HR = 1.776) and diabetes mellitus/hyperglycemia (HR = 2.159). The lesions were mostly supratentorial, and the temporal lobe was the most affected. The mean volume was 88.05 cm3 and produced a midline shift with an average of 8.52 mm. Subtotal surgical resection was a negative prognostic factor (HR = 1.877). The proliferative index did not influence survival rate, whereas CDKN2A gene mutations were shown to have a major impact on survival. We identified the main negative prognostic factors that support the aggressiveness of grade 4 gliomas: patient comorbidities, type of surgical resection, degree of cell differentiation, and CDKN2A gene mutations.

Cancer Awareness Measure (CAM) and Cancer Awareness Measure MYthical Causes Scale (CAM-MY) scores in Pakistani population

Lifestyle modifications could prevent almost one-third to one-half of all cancer cases. The awareness of cancer risk factors could motivate people to make such changes in their behaviors and lifestyles. This work aims to investigate the cancer awareness level in the Pakistani population. Telephone interviews of 657 individuals in Pakistan were carried out using the Cancer Awareness Measure (CAM) and Cancer Awareness Measure–MYthical Causes Scale (CAM-MY). We observed that participants scored significantly better on the CAM scale than the CAM-MY scale, and CAM scores were negatively associated with CAM-MY scores. Years of formal education or a biology major at undergraduate or graduate level did not affect our population's cancer awareness levels. Age displayed a weak but statistically significant negative association with CAM scores. Most participants failed to identify modifiable cancer risk factors, e.g., low physical activity. Efforts should be made to improve awareness of modifiable risk factors. We observed that brief training sessions could markedly improve people's understanding of cancer risk factors and myths.

Wireless phone use in childhood and adolescence and neuroepithelial brain tumours: Results from the international MOBI-Kids study

In recent decades, the possibility that use of mobile communicating devices, particularly wireless (mobile and cordless) phones, may increase brain tumour risk, has been a concern, particularly given the considerable increase in their use by young people. MOBI-Kids, a 14-country (Australia, Austria, Canada, France, Germany, Greece, India, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Spain) case-control study, was conducted to evaluate whether wireless phone use (and particularly resulting exposure to radiofrequency (RF) and extremely low frequency (ELF) electromagnetic fields (EMF)) increases risk of brain tumours in young people. Between 2010 and 2015, the study recruited 899 people with brain tumours aged 10 to 24 years old and 1,910 controls (operated for appendicitis) matched to the cases on date of diagnosis, study region and age. Participation rates were 72% for cases and 54% for controls. The mean ages of cases and controls were 16.5 and 16.6 years, respectively; 57% were males. The vast majority of study participants were wireless phones users, even in the youngest age group, and the study included substantial numbers of long-term (over 10 years) users: 22% overall, 51% in the 20-24-year-olds. Most tumours were of the neuroepithelial type (NBT; n = 671), mainly glioma. The odds ratios (OR) of NBT appeared to decrease with increasing time since start of use of wireless phones, cumulative number of calls and cumulative call time, particularly in the 15-19 years old age group. A decreasing trend in ORs was also observed with increasing estimated cumulative RF specific energy and ELF induced current density at the location of the tumour. Further analyses suggest that the large number of ORs below 1 in this study is unlikely to represent an unknown causal preventive effect of mobile phone exposure: they can be at least partially explained by differential recall by proxies and prodromal symptoms affecting phone use before diagnosis of the cases. We cannot rule out, however, residual confounding from sources we did not measure. Overall, our study provides no evidence of a causal association between wireless phone use and brain tumours in young people. However, the sources of bias summarised above prevent us from ruling out a small increased risk.

Risk of Accidents or Chronic Disorders From Improper Use of Mobile Phones: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Background

Mobile phone use has brought convenience, but the long or improper use of mobile phones can cause harm to the human body.

Objective

We aimed to assess the impact of improper mobile phone use on the risks of accidents and chronic disorders.

Methods

We systematically searched in PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane, and Web of Science databases for studies published prior to April 5, 2019; relevant reviews were also searched to identify additional studies. A random-effects model was used to calculate the overall pooled estimates.

Results

Mobile phone users had a higher risk of accidents (relative risk [RR] 1.37, 95% CI 1.22 to 1.55). Long-term use of mobile phones increased accident risk relative to nonuse or short-term use (RR 2.10, 95% CI 1.63 to 2.70). Compared with nonuse, mobile phone use resulted in a higher risk for neoplasms (RR 1.07, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.14), eye diseases (RR 2.03, 95% CI 1.27 to 3.23), mental health disorders (RR 1.16, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.32), and headaches (RR 1.25, 95% CI 1.18 to 1.32); the pooled risk of other chronic disorders was 1.20 (95% CI 0.90 to 1.59). Subgroup analyses also confirmed the increased risk of accidents and chronic disorders.

Conclusions

Improper use of mobile phones can harm the human body. While enjoying the convenience brought by mobile phones, people have to use mobile phones properly and reasonably.

The effect of exposure to radiofrequency fields on cancer risk in the general and working population: A protocol for a systematic review of human observational studies

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization (WHO) has an ongoing project to assess potential health effects of exposure to radiofrequency electromagnetic fields (RF-EMF) in the general and working population. Here we present the protocol for a systematic review of the scientific literature on cancer hazards from exposure to RF-EMF in humans, commissioned by the WHO as part of that project.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the quality and strength of the evidence provided by human observational studies for a causal association between exposure to RF-EMF and risk of neoplastic diseases.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

We will include cohort and case-control studies investigating neoplasia risks in relation to three types of exposure to RF-EMF: near-field, head-localized, exposure from wireless phone use (SR-A); far-field, whole body, environmental exposure from fixed-site transmitters (SR-B); near/far-field occupational exposures from use of handheld transceivers or RF-emitting equipment in the workplace (SR-C). While no restriction on tumour type will be applied, we will focus on selected neoplasms of the central nervous system (brain, meninges, pituitary gland, acoustic nerve) and salivary gland tumours (SR-A); brain tumours and leukaemias (SR-B, SR-C).

INFORMATION SOURCES

Eligible studies will be identified through Medline, Embase, and EMF-Portal.

RISK-OF-BIAS ASSESSMENT

We will use a tailored version of the OHAT's tool to evaluate the study's internal validity.

DATA SYNTHESIS

We will consider separately studies on different tumours, neoplasm-specific risks from different exposure sources, and a given exposure-outcome pair in adults and children. When a quantitative synthesis of findings can be envisaged, the main aims of the meta-analysis will be to assess the strength of association and the shape of the exposure-response relationship; to quantify the degree of heterogeneity across studies; and explore the sources of inconsistency (if any). When a meta-analysis is judged inappropriate, we will perform a narrative synthesis, complemented by a structured tabulation of results and appropriate visual displays.

EVIDENCE ASSESSMENT

Confidence in evidence will be assessed in line with the GRADE approach.

FUNDING

This project is supported by the World Health Organization. Co-financing was provided by the New Zealand Ministry of Health; the Istituto Superiore di Sanità in its capacity as a WHO Collaborating Centre for Radiation and Health; ARPANSA as a WHO Collaborating Centre for Radiation Protection.

REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42021236798.

No Change of Pneumocystis jirovecii Pneumonia after the COVID-19 Pandemic: Multicenter Time-Series Analyses

Consolidated infection control measures imposed by the government and hospitals during COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a sharp decline of respiratory viruses. Based on the issue of whether Pneumocystis jirovecii could be transmitted by airborne and acquired from the environment, we assessed changes in P. jirovecii pneumonia (PCP) cases in a hospital setting before and after COVID-19. We retrospectively collected data of PCP-confirmed inpatients aged ≥18 years (N = 2922) in four university-affiliated hospitals between January 2015 and June 2021. The index and intervention dates were defined as the first time of P. jirovecii diagnosis and January 2020, respectively. We predicted PCP cases for post-COVID-19 and obtained the difference (residuals) between forecasted and observed cases using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and the Bayesian structural time-series (BSTS) models. Overall, the average of observed PCP cases per month in each year were 36.1 and 47.3 for pre- and post-COVID-19, respectively. The estimate for residuals in the ARIMA model was not significantly different in the total PCP-confirmed inpatients (7.4%, p = 0.765). The forecasted PCP cases by the BSTS model were not significantly different from the observed cases in the post-COVID-19 (−0.6%, 95% credible interval; −9.6~9.1%, p = 0.450). The unprecedented strict non-pharmacological interventions did not affect PCP cases.

Mobile Phone Use and Time Trend of Brain Cancer Incidence Rate in Korea

This study evaluated the time trends in mobile phone subscriber number by mobile network generation (G) and brain cancer incidence by type in Korea. We obtained data from the Information Technology Statistics of Korea (1984-2017) and Korea Central Cancer Registry (1999-2017). The average annual percent change was estimated using Joinpoint regression analysis. We evaluated 29,721 brain cancer cases with an age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) of 2.89/100,000 persons. The glioma and glioblastoma annual ASR significantly increased in 2.6% and 3.9% of males and 3.0% and 3.8% of females, respectively. The ASR for frontal lobe involvement was the highest. The ASR of gliomas of unspecified grade annually increased by 7.8%; those for unspecified topology and histology decreased. The incidence of glioma, glioblastoma, frontal, temporal, and high-grade glioma increased among those aged ≥60 years. No association was observed between the mobile phone subscriber number and brain cancer incidence in Korea. Furthermore, long-term research is warranted because of the latency period of brain cancer. © 2021 Bioelectromagnetics Society.

The Critical Importance of Molecular Biomarkers and Imaging in the Study of Electrohypersensitivity. A Scientific Consensus International Report

Clinical research aiming at objectively identifying and characterizing diseases via clinical observations and biological and radiological findings is a critical initial research step when establishing objective diagnostic criteria and treatments. Failure to first define such diagnostic criteria may lead research on pathogenesis and etiology to serious confounding biases and erroneous medical interpretations. This is particularly the case for electrohypersensitivity (EHS) and more particularly for the so-called "provocation tests", which do not investigate the causal origin of EHS but rather the EHS-associated particular environmental intolerance state with hypersensitivity to man-made electromagnetic fields (EMF). However, because those tests depend on multiple EMF-associated physical and biological parameters and have been conducted in patients without having first defined EHS objectively and/or endpoints adequately, they cannot presently be considered to be valid pathogenesis research methodologies. Consequently, the negative results obtained by these tests do not preclude a role of EMF exposure as a symptomatic trigger in EHS patients. Moreover, there is no proof that EHS symptoms or EHS itself are caused by psychosomatic or nocebo effects. This international consensus report pleads for the acknowledgement of EHS as a distinct neuropathological disorder and for its inclusion in the WHO International Classification of Diseases.

Evaluating the power of the causal impact method in observational studies of HCV treatment as prevention

OBJECTIVES

The causal impact method (CIM) was recently introduced for evaluation of binary interventions using observational time-series data. The CIM is appealing for practical use as it can adjust for temporal trends and account for the potential of unobserved confounding. However, the method was initially developed for applications involving large datasets and hence its potential in small epidemiological studies is still unclear. Further, the effects that measurement error can have on the performance of the CIM have not been studied yet. The objective of this work is to investigate both of these open problems.

METHODS

Motivated by an existing dataset of HCV surveillance in the UK, we perform simulation experiments to investigate the effect of several characteristics of the data on the performance of the CIM. Further, we quantify the effects of measurement error on the performance of the CIM and extend the method to deal with this problem.

RESULTS

We identify multiple characteristics of the data that affect the ability of the CIM to detect an intervention effect including the length of time-series, the variability of the outcome and the degree of correlation between the outcome of the treated unit and the outcomes of controls. We show that measurement error can introduce biases in the estimated intervention effects and heavily reduce the power of the CIM. Using an extended CIM, some of these adverse effects can be mitigated.

CONCLUSIONS

The CIM can provide satisfactory power in public health interventions. The method may provide misleading results in the presence of measurement error.

Brain and Salivary Gland Tumors and Mobile Phone Use: Evaluating the Evidence from Various Epidemiological Study Designs

Mobile phones (MPs) are the most relevant source of radiofrequency electromagnetic field (RF-EMF) exposure to the brain and the salivary gland. Whether this exposure implies a cancer risk has been addressed in several case-control and few cohort studies. A meta-analysis of these studies does not show increased risks for meningioma, pituitary, and salivary gland tumors. For glioma and acoustic neuroma, the results are heterogeneous, with few case-control studies reporting substantially increased risks. However, these elevated risks are not coherent with observed incidence time trends, which are considered informative for this specific topic owing to the steep increase in MP use, the availability of virtually complete cancer registry data from many countries, and the limited number of known competing environmental risk factors. In conclusion, epidemiological studies do not suggest increased brain or salivary gland tumor risk with MP use, although some uncertainty remains regarding long latency periods (>15 years), rare brain tumor subtypes, and MP usage during childhood.

Analyses of temporal and spatial patterns of glioblastoma multiforme and other brain cancer subtypes in relation to mobile phones using synthetic counterfactuals

This study assesses whether temporal trends in glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) in different brain regions, and of different malignant and benign (including acoustic neuroma and meningioma) subtypes in the temporal lobe, could be associated with mobile phone use. Annual 1985-2005 incidence of brain cancer subtypes for England were linked to population-level covariates. Bayesian structural timeseries were used to create 2006-2014 counterfactual trends, and differences with measured newly diagnosed cases were interpreted as causal effects. Increases in excess of the counterfactuals for GBM were found in the temporal (+38% [95% Credible Interval -7%,78%]) and frontal (+36% [-8%,77%]) lobes, which were in agreement with hypothesised temporal and spatial mechanisms of mobile phone usage, and cerebellum (+59% [-0%,120%]). However, effects were primarily present in older age groups, with largest effects in 75 + and 85 + groups, indicating mobile phone use is unlikely to have been an important putative factor. There was no evidence of an effect of mobile phone use on incidence of acoustic neuroma and meningioma. Although 1985-2014 trends in GBM in the temporal and frontal lobes, and probably cerebellum, seem consistent with mobile phone use as an important putative factor, age-group specific analyses indicate that it is unlikely that this correlation is causal.

Development of a tool to assess beliefs about mythical causes of cancer: the Cancer Awareness Measure Mythical Causes Scale

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to develop a reliable and valid measure to assess public beliefs in mythical causes of cancer: the Cancer Awareness Measure-MYthical Causes Scale (CAM-MYCS).

DESIGN AND SETTING

Cancer myth items were generated from a literature review, social media and interviews (n=16). The CAM-MYCS was prepared by reducing items using (a) an online sample (n=527) with exploratory factor analysis and (b) cancer experts with Delhpi methodology (n=13). To assess test-retest reliability and sensitivity to change, students (n=91) completed the CAM-MYCS at baseline and 1 week after exposure to information on lifestyle-related cancer causes or control information. Construct validity was tested by comparing CAM-MYCS scores between cancer experts (n=25) and students (n=91). Factor structure and internal reliability were investigated in a national sample (n=1993).

RESULTS

Out of 42 items generated, 12 were retained based on factor loadings, prevalence of endorsement and expert consensus. CAM-MYCS scores improved (fewer myths endorsed) among students exposed to information on cancer causes compared with the control group (p<0.001) and showed high test-retest reliability (r=0.90, p<0.001). Cancer experts reported higher CAM-MYCS scores (fewer myths endorsed) than students (p<0.001). The factor structure of the CAM-MYCS was confirmed in the national sample and internal reliability was high (α=0.86). Inclusion of the CAM-MYCS alongside items assessing knowledge of actual cancer causes did not affect responses.

CONCLUSIONS

The CAM-MYCS tool is a reliable and valid tool assessing beliefs in mythical causes of cancer, and it can be used alongside items assessing known causes of cancer.

Cancer epidemiology update, following the 2011 IARC evaluation of radiofrequency electromagnetic fields (Monograph 102)

Epidemiology studies (case-control, cohort, time trend and case studies) published since the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) 2011 categorization of radiofrequency radiation (RFR) from mobile phones and other wireless devices as a possible human carcinogen (Group 2B) are reviewed and summarized. Glioma is an important human cancer found to be associated with RFR in 9 case-control studies conducted in Sweden and France, as well as in some other countries. Increasing glioma incidence trends have been reported in the UK and other countries. Non-malignant endpoints linked include acoustic neuroma (vestibular Schwannoma) and meningioma. Because they allow more detailed consideration of exposure, case-control studies can be superior to cohort studies or other methods in evaluating potential risks for brain cancer. When considered with recent animal experimental evidence, the recent epidemiological studies strengthen and support the conclusion that RFR should be categorized as carcinogenic to humans (IARC Group 1). Opportunistic epidemiological studies are proposed that can be carried out through cross-sectional analyses of high, medium, and low mobile phone users with respect to hearing, vision, memory, reaction time, and other indicators that can easily be assessed through standardized computer-based tests. As exposure data are not uniformly available, billing records should be used whenever available to corroborate reported exposures.

Brain Tumours: Rise in Glioblastoma Multiforme Incidence in England 1995-2015 Suggests an Adverse Environmental or Lifestyle Factor

Objective

To investigate detailed trends in malignant brain tumour incidence over a recent time period.

Methods

UK Office of National Statistics (ONS) data covering 81,135 ICD10 C71 brain tumours diagnosed in England (1995–2015) were used to calculate incidence rates (ASR) per 100k person–years, age–standardised to the European Standard Population (ESP–2013).

Results

We report a sustained and highly statistically significant ASR rise in glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) across all ages. The ASR for GBM more than doubled from 2.4 to 5.0, with annual case numbers rising from 983 to 2531. Overall, this rise is mostly hidden in the overall data by a reduced incidence of lower-grade tumours.

Conclusions

The rise is of importance for clinical resources and brain tumour aetiology. The rise cannot be fully accounted for by promotion of lower–grade tumours, random chance or improvement in diagnostic techniques as it affects specific areas of the brain and only one type of brain tumour. Despite the large variation in case numbers by age, the percentage rise is similar across the age groups, which suggests widespread environmental or lifestyle factors may be responsible. This article reports incidence data trends and does not provide additional evidence for the role of any particular risk factor.

Cancers of the Brain and CNS: Global Patterns and Trends in Incidence

Miranda-Filho et al. in their recently published paper entitled "Cancers of the brain and CNS: global patterns and trends in incidence" provided a global status report of the geographic and temporal variations in the incidence of brain and CNS cancers in different countries across continents worldwide. While the authors confirm the role of genetic risk factors and ionizing radiation exposures, they claimed that no firm conclusion could be drawn about the role of exposure to non-ionizing radiation. The paper authored by Miranda-Filho et al. not only addresses a challenging issue, it can be considered as a good contribution in the field of brain and CNS cancers. However, our correspondence addresses a basic shortcoming of this paper about the role of electromagnetic fields and cancers and provides evidence showing that exposure to radiofrequency electromagnetic fields (RF-EMFs), at least at high levels and long durations, can increases the risk of cancer.

A cost-benefit analysis and the potential trade effects of the bovine viral diarrhoea eradication programme in Styria, Austria

This study evaluated the voluntary and compulsory implementation of a bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) eradication programme in the Austrian Federal State of Styria, Austria, from an economic point of view using ex-post assessment of costs and benefits (disease losses avoided). An economic net benefit (benefit:cost ratio, BCR=1.18) of the programme was demonstrated during the voluntary programme phase (January 1998-July 2004). The break-even point was reached in 2003. If investments in the compulsory programme (August 2004-December 2016) were taken into account, a net economic loss (BCR=0.16) was demonstrated. In contrast to on-going annual testing of all cattle herds, annual testing in accordance with a revised sampling scheme could reduce total surveillance costs by more than 77%. A Bayesian structural time series model was applied to analyse a hypothesised positive impact of the compulsory BVDV programme on the Styrian cattle export market. The average number of exported cows and bulls increased significantly by 42% (P=0.03) and 47% (P=0.01), respectively, and the producer price increased by 14% (P=0.00) and 5% (P=0.16), respectively, during the compulsory programme period compared with the period prior to intervention. This equates to an average revenue increase of €29,754 for cows and €137,563 for bulls per month. These results justify the implementation of eradication programmes, which initially may not appear to be economically viable, particularly if trade effects are not included in the calculations.

Mobile phones, cordless phones and rates of brain tumors in different age groups in the Swedish National Inpatient Register and the Swedish Cancer Register during 1998-2015

We used the Swedish Inpatient Register (IPR) to analyze rates of brain tumors of unknown type (D43) during 1998–2015. Average Annual Percentage Change (AAPC) per 100,000 increased with +2.06%, 95% confidence interval (CI) +1.27, +2.86% in both genders combined. A joinpoint was found in 2007 with Annual Percentage Change (APC) 1998–2007 of +0.16%, 95% CI -0.94, +1.28%, and 2007–2015 of +4.24%, 95% CI +2.87, +5.63%. Highest AAPC was found in the age group 20–39 years. In the Swedish Cancer Register the age-standardized incidence rate per 100,000 increased for brain tumors, ICD-code 193.0, during 1998–2015 with AAPC in men +0.49%, 95% CI +0.05, +0.94%, and in women +0.33%, 95% CI -0.29, +0.45%. The cases with brain tumor of unknown type lack morphological examination. Brain tumor diagnosis was based on cytology/histopathology in 83% for men and in 87% for women in 1980. This frequency increased to 90% in men and 88% in women in 2015. During the same time period CT and MRI imaging techniques were introduced and morphology is not always necessary for diagnosis. If all brain tumors based on clinical diagnosis with CT or MRI had been reported to the Cancer Register the frequency of diagnoses based on cytology/histology would have decreased in the register. The results indicate underreporting of brain tumor cases to the Cancer Register. The real incidence would be higher. Thus, incidence trends based on the Cancer Register should be used with caution. Use of wireless phones should be considered in relation to the change of incidence rates.

Evaluation of Mobile Phone and Cordless Phone Use and Glioma Risk Using the Bradford Hill Viewpoints from 1965 on Association or Causation

Objective. Bradford Hill's viewpoints from 1965 on association or causation were used on glioma risk and use of mobile or cordless phones. Methods. All nine viewpoints were evaluated based on epidemiology and laboratory studies. Results. Strength: meta-analysis of case-control studies gave odds ratio (OR) = 1.90, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.31-2.76 with highest cumulative exposure. Consistency: the risk increased with latency, meta-analysis gave in the 10+ years' latency group OR = 1.62, 95% CI = 1.20-2.19. Specificity: increased risk for glioma was in the temporal lobe. Using meningioma cases as comparison group still increased the risk. Temporality: highest risk was in the 20+ years' latency group, OR = 2.01, 95% CI =1.41-2.88, for wireless phones. Biological gradient: cumulative use of wireless phones increased the risk. Plausibility: animal studies showed an increased incidence of glioma and malignant schwannoma in rats exposed to radiofrequency (RF) radiation. There is increased production of reactive oxygen species (ROS) from RF radiation. Coherence: there is a change in the natural history of glioma and increasing incidence. Experiment: antioxidants reduced ROS production from RF radiation. Analogy: there is an increased risk in subjects exposed to extremely low-frequency electromagnetic fields. Conclusion. RF radiation should be regarded as a human carcinogen causing glioma.