Avian influenza virus ecology and evolution through a climatic lens

Enhanced Diversifying Selection on Polymerase Genes in H5N1 Clade 2.3.4.4b: A Key Driver of Altered Species Tropism and Host Range Expansion

Highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b viruses have shown unprecedented host range and pathogenicity, including infections in cattle, previously not susceptible to H5N1. We investigated whether selection pressures on clade 2.3.4.4b viral genes could shed light on their unique epidemiological features. Our analysis revealed that while the gene products of clade 2.3.4.4b H5N1 primarily undergo purifying selection, there are notable instances of episodic diversifying selection. Specifically, the polymerase genes PB2, PB1, and PA exhibit significantly greater selection pressures in clade 2.3.4.4b than all earlier H5N1 virus clades. Polymerases play critical roles in influenza virus adaptation, including viral fitness, interspecies transmission, and virulence. Our findings provide evidence that significant selection pressures have shaped the evolution of the H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b viruses, facilitating their expanded host tropism and the potential for further adaptation to mammalian hosts. We discuss how exogenous factors, such as altered bird migration patterns and increased host susceptibility, may have contributed to the expanded host range. As H5N1 viruses continue to infect new hosts, there is a greater risk of emergent novel variants with increased pathogenicity in humans and animals. Thus, comprehensive One Health surveillance is critical to monitor transmission among avian and mammalian hosts.

Neutral markers reveal complex population structure across the range of a widespread songbird

Understanding how both contemporary and historical physical barriers influence gene flow is key to reconstructing evolutionary histories and can allow us to predict species' resilience to changing environmental conditions. During the last glacial maximum (LGM), many high latitude North American bird species were forced into glacial refugia, including mountain bluebirds (Silia currucoides). Within their current breeding range, mountain bluebirds still experience a wide variety of environmental conditions and barriers that may disrupt gene flow and isolate populations. Using single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) obtained through restriction site-associated DNA sequencing, we detected at least four genetically distinct mountain bluebird populations. Based on this structure, we determined that isolation-by-distance, the northern Rocky Mountains, and discontinuous habitat are responsible for the low connectivity and the overall history of each population going back to the last glacial maximum. Finally, we identified five candidate genes under balancing selection and three loci under diversifying selection. This study provides the first look at connectivity and gene flow across the range of these high-altitude and high latitude songbirds.

The impact of anthropogenic climate change on pediatric viral diseases

The adverse effects of climate change on human health are unfolding in real time. Environmental fragmentation is amplifying spillover of viruses from wildlife to humans. Increasing temperatures are expanding mosquito and tick habitats, introducing vector-borne viruses into immunologically susceptible populations. More frequent flooding is spreading water-borne viral pathogens, while prolonged droughts reduce regional capacity to prevent and respond to disease outbreaks with adequate water, sanitation, and hygiene resources. Worsening air quality and altered transmission seasons due to an increasingly volatile climate may exacerbate the impacts of respiratory viruses. Furthermore, both extreme weather events and long-term climate variation are causing the destruction of health systems and large-scale migrations, reshaping health care delivery in the face of an evolving global burden of viral disease. Because of their immunological immaturity, differences in physiology (e.g., size), dependence on caregivers, and behavioral traits, children are particularly vulnerable to climate change. This investigation into the unique pediatric viral threats posed by an increasingly inhospitable world elucidates potential avenues of targeted programming and uncovers future research questions to effect equitable, actionable change. IMPACT: A review of the effects of climate change on viral threats to pediatric health, including zoonotic, vector-borne, water-borne, and respiratory viruses, as well as distal threats related to climate-induced migration and health systems. A unique focus on viruses offers a more in-depth look at the effect of climate change on vector competence, viral particle survival, co-morbidities, and host behavior. An examination of children as a particularly vulnerable population provokes programming tailored to their unique set of vulnerabilities and encourages reflection on equitable climate adaptation frameworks.

Review: The role of heat shock proteins in chicken: Insights into stress adaptation and health

This review article aimed to provide readers with a comprehensive understanding of the function of heat shock proteins (HSPs) in chicken physiology, stress response, and overall poultry health. With the increasing challenges faced by the livestock industry, particularly the poultry sector, due to climate change-induced high ambient temperatures, heat stress (HS) has become a critical concern. HS disrupts the thermal balance in poultry, leading to detrimental effects on growth, immune function, and overall health. HSPs play a pivotal role in mitigating the impacts of HS in chickens. These molecular chaperones are involved in protein folding, unfolding, and assembly, and they are classified into several families based on their size, including small molecule HSPs, HSP40, HSP60, HSP70, HSP90, and HSP110. By maintaining cellular homeostasis and promoting stress tolerance, HSPs act as vital guardians in helping chickens cope with HS and its associated consequences. The review synthesized relevant literature to shed light on the importance of HSPs in stress adaptation, cellular homeostasis, and the maintenance of normal cell metabolism in chickens. The adverse effects of HS on chickens include oxidative stress and compromised immune systems, making them more susceptible to infections. So also, HS negatively affects production performance and meat quality in poultry. Understanding the functions of HSPs in chickens offers valuable insights into stress adaptation and health, and could potentially lead to the identification of HSP biomarkers, genetic selection for heat tolerance, investigations into the interplay between HSPs and immune function, and the development of nutritional interventions to enhance HSP activity. By exploring these potential research directions, the review aimed to contribute to the development of novel approaches to mitigate the negative effects of HS on poultry, ultimately improving productivity and animal welfare in a changing climate.

The role of vaccination and environmental factors on outbreaks of high pathogenicity avian influenza H5N1 in Bangladesh

High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreaks continue to wreak havoc on the global poultry industry and threaten the health of wild bird populations, with sporadic spillover in humans and other mammals, resulting in widespread calls to vaccinate poultry. Bangladesh has been vaccinating poultry since 2012, presenting a prime opportunity to study the effects of vaccination on HPAI H5N1circulation in both poultry and wild birds. We investigated the efficacy of vaccinating commercial poultry against HPAI H5N1 along with climatic and socio-economic factors considered potential drivers of HPAI H5N1 outbreak risk in Bangladesh. Using a multivariate modeling approach, we estimated that the rate of outbreaks was 18 times higher before compared to after vaccination, with winter months having a three times higher chance of outbreaks than summer months. Variables resulting in small but significant increases in outbreak rate were relatively low ambient temperatures for the time of year, literacy rate, chicken and duck density, crop density, and presence of highways; this may be attributable to low temperatures supporting viral survival outside the host, higher literacy driving reporting rate, density of the host reservoir, and spread of the virus through increased connectivity. Despite the substantial impact of vaccination on outbreaks, we note that HPAI H5N1 is still enzootic in Bangladesh; vaccinated poultry flocks have high rates of H5N1 prevalence, and spillover to wild birds has increased. Vaccination in Bangladesh thus bears the risk of supporting "silent spread," where the vaccine only provides protection against disease and not also infection. Our findings underscore that poultry vaccination can be part of holistic HPAI mitigation strategies when accompanied by monitoring to avoid silent spread.

Potential risk zones and climatic factors influencing the occurrence and persistence of avian influenza viruses in the environment of live bird markets in Bangladesh

Live bird markets (LBMs) are critical for poultry trade in many developing countries that are regarded as hotspots for the prevalence and contamination of avian influenza viruses (AIV). Therefore, we conducted weekly longitudinal environmental surveillance in LBMs to determine annual cyclic patterns of AIV subtypes, environmental risk zones, and the role of climatic factors on the AIV presence and persistence in the environment of LBM in Bangladesh. From January 2018 to March 2020, we collected weekly fecal and offal swab samples from each LBM and tested using rRT-PCR for the M gene and subtyped for H5, H7, and H9. We used Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) approaches to account for repeated observations over time to correlate the AIV prevalence and potential risk factors and the negative binomial and Poisson model to investigate the role of climatic factors on environmental contamination of AIV at the LBM. Over the study period, 37.8% of samples tested AIV positive, 18.8% for A/H5, and A/H9 was, for 15.4%. We found the circulation of H5, H9, and co-circulation of H5 and H9 in the environmental surfaces year-round. The Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) model reveals a distinct seasonal pattern in transmitting AIV and H5. Specifically, certain summer months exhibited a substantial reduction of risk up to 70-90% and 93-94% for AIV and H5 contamination, respectively. The slaughtering zone showed a significantly higher risk of contamination with H5, with a three-fold increase in risk compared to bird-holding zones. From the negative binomial model, we found that climatic factors like temperature and relative humidity were also significantly associated with weekly AIV circulation. An increase in temperature and relative humidity decreases the risk of AIV circulation. Our study underscores the significance of longitudinal environmental surveillance for identifying potential risk zones to detect H5 and H9 virus co-circulation and seasonal transmission, as well as the imperative for immediate interventions to reduce AIV at LBMs in Bangladesh. We recommend adopting a One Health approach to integrated AIV surveillance across animal, human, and environmental interfaces in order to prevent the epidemic and pandemic of AIV.

Ecogeographic Drivers of the Spatial Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Outbreaks in Europe and the United States, 2016-Early 2022

H5Nx highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses of clade 2.3.4.4 have caused outbreaks in Europe among wild and domestic birds since 2016 and were introduced to North America via wild migratory birds in December 2021. We examined the spatiotemporal extent of HPAI viruses across continents and characterized ecological and environmental predictors of virus spread between geographic regions by constructing a Bayesian phylodynamic generalized linear model (phylodynamic-GLM). The findings demonstrate localized epidemics of H5Nx throughout Europe in the first several years of the epizootic, followed by a singular branching point where H5N1 viruses were introduced to North America, likely via stopover locations throughout the North Atlantic. Once in the United States (US), H5Nx viruses spread at a greater rate between US-based regions as compared to prior spread in Europe. We established that geographic proximity is a predictor of virus spread between regions, implying that intercontinental transport across the Atlantic Ocean is relatively rare. An increase in mean ambient temperature over time was predictive of reduced H5Nx virus spread, which may reflect the effect of climate change on declines in host species abundance, decreased persistence of the virus in the environment, or changes in migratory patterns due to ecological alterations. Our data provide new knowledge about the spread and directionality of H5Nx virus dispersal in Europe and the US during an actively evolving intercontinental outbreak, including predictors of virus movement between regions, which will contribute to surveillance and mitigation strategies as the outbreak unfolds, and in future instances of uncontained avian spread of HPAI viruses.

Epidemiology and molecular characterization of avian influenza A viruses H5N1 and H3N8 subtypes in poultry farms and live bird markets in Bangladesh

Avian influenza virus (AIV) remains a global threat, with waterfowl serving as the primary reservoir from which viruses spread to other hosts. Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5 viruses continue to be a devastating threat to the poultry industry and an incipient threat to humans. A cross-sectional study was conducted in seven districts of Bangladesh to estimate the prevalence and subtypes (H3, H5, and H9) of AIV in poultry and identify underlying risk factors and phylogenetic analysis of AIVs subtypes H5N1 and H3N8. Cloacal and oropharyngeal swab samples were collected from 500 birds in live bird markets (LBMs) and poultry farms. Each bird was sampled by cloacal and oropharyngeal swabbing, and swabs were pooled for further analysis. Pooled samples were analyzed for the influenza A virus (IAV) matrix (M) gene, followed by H5 and H9 molecular subtyping using real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR). Non-H5 and Non-H9 influenza A virus positive samples were sequenced to identify possible subtypes. Selected H5 positive samples were subjected to hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) gene sequencing. Multivariable logistic regression was used for risk factor analysis. We found that IAV M gene prevalence was 40.20% (95% CI 35.98-44.57), with 52.38%, 46.96%, and 31.11% detected in chicken, waterfowl, and turkey, respectively. Prevalence of H5, H3, and H9 reached 22%, 3.4%, and 6.9%, respectively. Waterfowl had a higher risk of having AIV (AOR: 4.75), and H5 (AOR: 5.71) compared to chicken; more virus was detected in the winter season than in the summer season (AOR: 4.93); dead birds had a higher risk of AIVs and H5 detection than healthy birds, and the odds of H5 detection increased in LBM. All six H5N1 viruses sequenced were clade 2.3.2.1a-R1 viruses circulating since 2015 in poultry and wild birds in Bangladesh. The 12 H3N8 viruses in our study formed two genetic groups that had more similarity to influenza viruses from wild birds in Mongolia and China than to previous H3N8 viruses from Bangladesh. The findings of this study may be used to modify guidelines on AIV control and prevention to account for the identified risk factors that impact their spread.

Persistence of low pathogenic avian influenza virus in artificial streams mimicking natural conditions of waterfowl habitats in the Mediterranean climate

Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) can affect wildlife, poultry, and humans, so a One Health perspective is needed to optimize mitigation strategies. Migratory waterfowl globally spread AIVs over long distances. Therefore, the study of AIV persistence in waterfowl staging and breeding areas is key to understanding their transmission dynamics and optimizing management strategies. Here, we used artificial streams mimicking natural conditions of waterfowl habitats in the Mediterranean climate (day/night cycles of photosynthetic active radiation and temperature, low water velocity, and similar microbiome to lowland rivers and stagnant water bodies) and then manipulated temperature and sediment presence (i.e., 10-13 °C vs. 16-18 °C, and presence vs. absence of sediments). An H1N1 low pathogenic AIV (LPAIV) strain was spiked in the streams, and water and sediment samples were collected at different time points until 14 days post-spike to quantify viral RNA and detect infectious particles. Viral RNA was detected until the end of the experiment in both water and sediment samples. In water samples, we observed a significant combined effect of temperature and sediments in viral decay, with higher viral genome loads in colder streams without sediments. In sediment samples, we didn't observe any significant effect of temperature. In contrast to prior laboratory-controlled studies that detect longer persistence times, infectious H1N1 LPAIV was isolated in water samples till 2 days post-spike, and none beyond. Infectious H1N1 LPAIV wasn't isolated from any sediment sample. Our results suggest that slow flowing freshwater surface waters may provide conditions facilitating bird-to-bird transmission for a short period when water temperature are between 10 and 18 °C, though persistence for extended periods (e.g., weeks or months) may be less likely. We hypothesize that experiments simulating real environments, like the one described here, provide a more realistic approach for assessing environmental persistence of AIVs.

Persistence of avian influenza virus (H9N2) on plastic surface

Plastics have been found to be colonized with pathogens and may become vectors for transmission of diseases. In this study, we evaluated the persistence of H9N2 avian influenza virus (AIV) on the surfaces of various plastics (PP, PE, PS, PET, PVC, PMMA) under different environmental conditions using glass and stainless steel for comparison. Our results showed that the RNA abundance of AIV on plastics was decreased over time but still detectable 14 days after AIV had been dropped on plastic surfaces. Low temperature (4 °C) was more favorable for AIV RNA preservation and infectivity maintenance. The abundance of AIV RNA was significantly greater on polyethylene terephthalate (PET) than that on glass and stainless steel at higher temperature (i.e., 25 °C and 37 °C) and lower humidity (<20% and 40-60%) (p < 0.05). Infectivity assay showed that AIV infectivity was only maintained at 4 °C after 24 h of incubation. Taken together, the persistence of AIV was more affected by environmental factors than material types. Plastics were able to preserve viral RNA more effectively in relatively high-temperature or low-humidity environments. Our study indicates that environmental factors should be taken into consideration when we evaluate the capacity of plastics to spread viruses.

Epidemiology and Ecology of Influenza A Viruses among Wildlife in the Arctic

Arctic regions are ecologically significant for the environmental persistence and geographic dissemination of influenza A viruses (IAVs) by avian hosts and other wildlife species. Data describing the epidemiology and ecology of IAVs among wildlife in the arctic are less frequently published compared to southern temperate regions, where prevalence and subtype diversity are more routinely documented. Following PRISMA guidelines, this systematic review addresses this gap by describing the prevalence, spatiotemporal distribution, and ecological characteristics of IAVs detected among wildlife and the environment in this understudied region of the globe. The literature search was performed in PubMed and Google Scholar using a set of pre-defined search terms to identify publications reporting on IAVs in Arctic regions between 1978 and February 2022. A total of 2125 articles were initially screened, 267 were assessed for eligibility, and 71 articles met inclusion criteria. IAVs have been detected in multiple wildlife species in all Arctic regions, including seabirds, shorebirds, waterfowl, seals, sea lions, whales, and terrestrial mammals, and in the environment. Isolates from wild birds comprise the majority of documented viruses derived from wildlife; however, among all animals and environmental matrices, 26 unique low and highly pathogenic subtypes have been characterized in the scientific literature from Arctic regions. Pooled prevalence across studies indicates 4.23% for wild birds, 3.42% among tested environmental matrices, and seroprevalences of 9.29% and 1.69% among marine and terrestrial mammals, respectively. Surveillance data are geographically biased, with most data from the Alaskan Arctic and many fewer reports from the Russian, Canadian, North Atlantic, and Western European Arctic. We highlight multiple important aspects of wildlife host, pathogen, and environmental ecology of IAVs in Arctic regions, including the role of avian migration and breeding cycles for the global spread of IAVs, evidence of inter-species and inter-continental reassortment at high latitudes, and how climate change-driven ecosystem shifts, including changes in the seasonal availability and distribution of dietary resources, have the potential to alter host-pathogen-environment dynamics in Arctic regions. We conclude by identifying gaps in knowledge and propose priorities for future research.

Maintenance and dissemination of avian-origin influenza A virus within the northern Atlantic Flyway of North America

Wild waterbirds, the natural reservoirs for avian influenza viruses, undergo migratory movements each year, connecting breeding and wintering grounds within broad corridors known as flyways. In a continental or global view, the study of virus movements within and across flyways is important to understanding virus diversity, evolution, and movement. From 2015 to 2017, we sampled waterfowl from breeding (Maine) and wintering (Maryland) areas within the Atlantic Flyway (AF) along the east coast of North America to investigate the spatio-temporal trends in persistence and spread of influenza A viruses (IAV). We isolated 109 IAVs from 1,821 cloacal / oropharyngeal samples targeting mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) and American black ducks (Anas rubripes), two species having ecological and conservation importance in the flyway that are also host reservoirs of IAV. Isolates with >99% nucleotide similarity at all gene segments were found between eight pairs of birds in the northern site across years, indicating some degree of stability among genome constellations and the possibility of environmental persistence. No movement of whole genome constellations were identified between the two parts of the flyway, however, virus gene flow between the northern and southern study locations was evident. Examination of banding records indicate direct migratory waterfowl movements between the two locations within an annual season, providing a mechanism for the inferred viral gene flow. Bayesian phylogenetic analyses provided evidence for virus dissemination from other North American wild birds to AF dabbling ducks (Anatinae), shorebirds (Charidriformes), and poultry (Galliformes). Evidence was found for virus dissemination from shorebirds to gulls (Laridae), and dabbling ducks to shorebirds and poultry. The findings from this study contribute to the understanding of IAV ecology in waterfowl within the AF.

Estimating Movement Rates Between Eurasian and North American Birds That Are Vectors of Avian Influenza

Avian influenza (AI) is a zoonotic disease that will likely be involved in future pandemics. Because waterbird movements are difficult to quantify, determining the host-specific risk of Eurasian-origin AI movements into North America is challenging. We estimated relative rates of movements, based on long-term evolutionary averages of gene flow, between Eurasian and North American waterbird populations to obtain bidirectional baseline rates of the intercontinental movements of these AI hosts. We used population genomics and coalescent-based demographic models to obtain these gene-flow-based movement estimates. Inferred rates of movement between these continental populations varies greatly among species. Within dabbling ducks, gene flow, relative to effective population size, varies from ∼3 to 24 individuals/generation between Eurasian and American wigeons (Mareca penelope and Mareca americana) to ∼100-300 individuals/generation between continental populations of northern pintails (Anas acuta). These are evolutionary long-term averages and provide a solid foundation for understanding the relative risks of each of these host species in potential intercontinental AI movements. We scale these values to census size for evaluation in that context. In addition to being AI hosts, many of these bird species are also important in the subsistence diets of Alaskans, increasing the risk of direct bird-to-human exposure to Eurasian-origin AI virus. We contrast species-specific rates of intercontinental movements with the importance of each species in Alaskan diets to understand the relative risk of these taxa to humans. Assuming roughly equivalent AI infection rates among ducks, greater scaup (Aythya marila), mallard (Anas platyrhynchos), and northern pintail (Anas acuta) were the top three species presenting the highest risks for intercontinental AI movement both within the natural system and through exposure to subsistence hunters. Improved data on AI infection rates in this region could further refine these relative risk assessments. These directly comparable, species-based intercontinental movement rates and relative risk rankings should help in modeling, monitoring, and mitigating the impacts of intercontinental host and AI movements.

Novel Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza H6N1 in Backyard Chicken in Easter Island (Rapa Nui), Chilean Polynesia

Little is known about the prevalence of avian influenza viruses (AIV) in wildlife and domestic animals in Polynesia. Here, we present the results of active AIV surveillance performed during two sampling seasons in 2019 on Easter Island (Rapa Nui). Tracheal and cloacal swabs as well as sera samples were obtained from domestic backyard poultry, while fresh faeces were collected from wild birds. In addition to detecting antibodies against AIV in 46% of the domestic chickens in backyard production systems tested, we isolated a novel low pathogenic H6N1 virus from a chicken. Phylogenetic analysis of all genetic segments revealed that the virus was closely related to AIV’s circulating in South America. Our analysis showed different geographical origins of the genetic segments, with the PA, HA, NA, NP, and MP gene segments coming from central Chile and the PB2, PB1, and NS being closely related to viruses isolated in Argentina. While the route of introduction can only be speculated, our analysis shows the persistence and independent evolution of this strain in the island since its putative introduction between 2015 and 2016. The results of this research are the first evidence of AIV circulation in domestic birds on a Polynesian island and increase our understanding of AIV ecology in region, warranting further surveillance on Rapa Nui and beyond.

The impact of cold weather on respiratory morbidity at Emory Healthcare in Atlanta

BACKGROUND

Research on temperature and respiratory hospitalizations is lacking in the southeastern U.S. where cold weather is relatively rare. This retrospective study examined the association between cold waves and pneumonia and influenza (P&I) emergency department (ED) visits and hospitalizations in three metro-Atlanta hospitals.

METHODS

We used a case-crossover design, restricting data to the cooler seasons of 2009-2019, to determine whether cold waves influenced ED visits and hospitalizations. This analysis considered effects by race/ethnicity, age, sex, and severity of comorbidities. We used generalized additive models and distributed lag non-linear models to examine these relationships over a 21-day lag period.

RESULTS

The odds of a P&I ED visit approximately one week after a cold wave were increased by as much as 11%, and odds of an ED visit resulting in hospitalization increased by 8%. For ED visits on days with minimum temperatures >20 °C, there was an increase of 10-15% in relative risk (RR) for short lags (0-2 days), and a slight decrease in RR (0-5%) one week later. For minimum temperatures <0 °C, RR decreased at short lags (5-10%) before increasing (1-5%) one week later. Hospital admissions exhibited a similar, but muted, pattern.

CONCLUSION

Unusually cold weather influenced P&I ED visits and admissions in this population.

SARS-CoV-2: Origin, Intermediate Host and Allergenicity Features and Hypotheses

The goal of this study is to investigate the probable intermediate hosts and the allergenicity of the notorious virus SARS-CoV-2 to understand how this virus emerged. The phylogenetic analysis of the virus spike proteins indicates that SARS-CoV-2 falls into various small subclades that include a bat coronavirus RaTG13, suggesting bats as a likely natural origin. Refined alignment of the spike protein in NCBI found several fragments that are specific to SARS-CoV-2 and/or SARS-CoV are specific to Rattus norvegicus and/or Mus musculus, suggesting that rodents are the intermediate reservoir of SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV. To evaluate the allergenicity values, the binding affinities of human leukocyte antigen (HLA) class I or II molecules with the spike proteins were calculated, and the results showed that both SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV are predicted to bind to fourteen HLA class I and II molecules with super-high HLA allele-peptide affinities. The infection rate of individuals who have HLA alleles with very high binding affinities who might become infected and develop into refractory patients if there were no medical or non-medical interventions is about 7.36% and 4.78% of Chinese and Americans, respectively. Extremely high temperature and exceptionally low precipitation, the common climate factors between the outbreak sites of COVID-19 in Wuhan in 2019 and SARS in Guangdong in 2002, might have promoted coronavirus evolution into more virulent forms. Our hypothesis suggests that early immunization with an allergenically-engineered virus, in combination with continued surveillance of meteorological factors and viral mutations, may be one of the most powerful prophylactic modalities to fight this virus.

Prevalence and Associated Risk Factor of COVID-19 and Impacts of Meteorological and Social Variables on Its Propagation in Punjab, Pakistan

The current study identifies the spatial distribution of COVID-19 cases and its association with meteorological and social variables in Punjab (densely populated province of Pakistan). To identify the COVID-19 propagation, the weekly growth, recovery, and deaths rate have also been calculated. The geographic information system (GIS) has used to determine COVID-19 impacts on gender (male/female), age groups, and causalities over an affected population (km^-2) for the period of 11th March to 12th August, 2020 in each district of province. Our results show that 43 peak days (where daily positive cases were above 900) have been observed in Punjab during 27th May to 8th July, 2020. The high population density districts, i.e., Lahore and Islamabad, have been affected (five persons per square kilometers) due to COVID-19, whereas the maximum death tolls (> 50 persons per millions) have also been observed in these urban districts. The meteorological variables (temperature, humidity, heat index, and ultraviolet index) show negative significant relationship to basic reproduction number (R0), whereas daily COVID-19 cases are positively correlated to aerosols concentration at 95% confidence level. The government intervention (stringency index) shows a positive impact to reduce the COVID-19 cases over the province. Keeping in view the COVID-19 behavior and climatology of the region, it has been identified that the COVID-19 cases may likely to increase during the dry period (high concentration of aerosols) i.e., October-December, 2020 and post-spring season (April to June), 2021 in urban areas of Pakistan. This study provides an overview on districts vulnerability that would help the policy makers, health agencies to plan their activities to reduce the COVID-19 impacts.

Impact of Heat Index and Ultraviolet Index on COVID-19 in Major Cities of Pakistan

INTRODUCTION

The world population is under the grip of global pandemic of COVID-19. The present study analyzed relationship between meteorological parameters and COVID-19 in three major cities of Pakistan, that is, Karachi, Lahore, and Peshawar.

METHODS

The impacts of heat index (HI) and ultraviolet index (UVI) over daily COVID-19 cases have examined to identify its transmission and propagation. The significance of basic reproductive number (R0), growth rate (Gr) and doubling time (Td) of COVID-19 with HI and UVI was determined.

RESULTS

Both indices show a significant positive correlation (at 5% significance level) to R0, Td, and Gr of COVID-19 patients. Our results showed that the minimum threshold temperature of 33 °C for HI (with a positive variation of 3 °C to 5 °C) put a significant impact on new cases.

CONCLUSION

HI and UVI impacted significantly to decline COVID-19 cases over the region.

Impact of Extreme Hot Climate on COVID-19 Outbreak in India

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic poses extreme threat to public health and economy, particularly to the nations with higher population density. The disease first reported in Wuhan, China; later, it spreads elsewhere, and currently, India emerged as COVID-19 hotspot. In India, we selected 20 densely populated cities having infection counts higher than 500 (by 15 May) as COVID-19 epicenters. Daily COVID-19 count has strong covariability with local temperature, which accounts approximately 65-85% of the explained variance; i.e., its spread depends strongly on local temperature rise prior to community transmission phase. The COVID-19 cases are clustered at temperature and humidity ranging within 27-32°C and 25-45%, respectively. We introduce a combined temperature and humidity profile, which favors rapid COVID-19 growth at the initial phase. The results are highly significant for predicting future COVID-19 outbreaks and modeling cities based on environmental conditions. On the other hand, CO2 emission is alarmingly high in South Asia (India) and entails high risk of climate change and extreme hot summer. Zoonotic viruses are sensitive to warming induced climate change; COVID-19 epicenters are collocated on CO2 emission hotspots. The COVID-19 count distribution peaks at 31.0°C, which is 1.0°C higher than current (2020) and historical (1961-1990) mean, value. Approximately, 72% of the COVID-19 cases are clustered at severe to record-breaking hot extremes of historical temperature distribution spectrum. Therefore, extreme climate change has important role in the spread of COVID-19 pandemic. Hence, a strenuous mitigation measure to abate greenhouse gas (GHG) emission is essential to avoid such pandemics in future.

Possible ramifications of climate variability on HPAI-H5N1 outbreak occurrence: Case study from the Menoufia, Egypt

Long endemicity of the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 subtype in Egypt poses a lot of threats to public health. Contrary to what is previously known, outbreaks have been circulated continuously in the poultry sectors all year round without seasonality. These changes call the need for epidemiological studies to prove or deny the influence of climate variability on outbreak occurrence, which is the aim of this study. This work proposes a modern approach to examine the degree to which the HPAI-H5N1disease event is being influenced by climate variability as a potential risk factor using generalized estimating equations (GEEs). GEE model revealed that the effect of climate variability differs according to the timing of the outbreak occurrence. Temperature and relative humidity could have both positive and negative effects on disease events. During the cold seasons especially in the first quarter, higher minimum temperatures, consistently show higher risks of disease occurrence, because this condition stimulates viral activity, while lower minimum temperatures support virus survival in the other quarters of the year with the highest negative effect in the third quarter. On the other hand, relative humidity negatively affects the outbreak in the first quarter of the year as the humid weather does not support viral circulation, while the highest positive effect was found in the second quarter during which low humidity favors the disease event.

The effects of regional climatic condition on the spread of COVID-19 at global scale

The pandemic outbreak of the novel coronavirus epidemic disease (COVID-19) is spreading like a diffusion-reaction in the world and almost 208 countries and territories are being affected around the globe. It became a sever health and socio-economic problem, while the world has no vaccine to combat this virus. This research aims to analyze the connection between the fast spread of COVID-19 and regional climate parameters over a global scale. In this research, we collected the data of COVID-19 cases from the time of 1st reported case to the 5th June 2020 in different affected countries and regional climatic parameters data from January 2020 to 5th June 2020. It was found that most of the countries located in the relatively lower temperature region show a rapid increase in the COVID-19 cases than the countries locating in the warmer climatic regions despite their better socio-economic conditions. A correlation between metrological parameters and COVID-19 cases was observed. Average daylight hours are correlated to total the COVID-19 cases with a coefficient of determination of 0.42, while average high-temperature shows a correlation of 0.59 and 0.42 with total COVID-19 cases and death cases respectively. The finding of the study will help international health organizations and local administrations to combat and well manage the spread of COVID-19.

Protection of wetlands as a strategy for reducing the spread of avian influenza from migratory waterfowl

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 has led to the death or destruction of millions of domesticated and wild birds and caused hundreds of human deaths worldwide. As with other HPAIs, H5N1 outbreaks among poultry have generally been caused by contact with infected migratory waterfowl at the interface of wildlands and human-dominated landscapes. Using a case-control epidemiological approach, we analyzed the relation between habitat protection and H5N1 outbreaks in China from 2004 to 2017. We found that while proximity to unprotected waterfowl habitats and rice paddy generally increased outbreak risk, proximity to the most highly protected habitats (e.g., Ramsar-designated lakes and wetlands) had the opposite effect. Protection likely involves two mechanisms: the separation of wild waterfowl and poultry populations and the diversion of wild waterfowl from human-dominated landscapes toward protected natural habitats. Wetland protection could therefore be an effective means to control avian influenza while also contributing to avian conservation.

Pandemic potential of highly pathogenic avian influenza clade 2.3.4.4 A(H5) viruses

The panzootic caused by A/goose/Guangdong/1/96‐lineage highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5) viruses has occurred in multiple waves since 1996. From 2013 onwards, clade 2.3.4.4 viruses of subtypes A(H5N2), A(H5N6), and A(H5N8) emerged to cause panzootic waves of unprecedented magnitude among avian species accompanied by severe losses to the poultry industry around the world. Clade 2.3.4.4 A(H5) viruses have expanded in distinct geographical and evolutionary pathways likely via long distance migratory bird dispersal onto several continents and by poultry trade among neighboring countries. Coupled with regional circulation, the viruses have evolved further by reassorting with local viruses. As of February 2019, there have been 23 cases of humans infected with clade 2.3.4.4 H5N6 viruses, 16 (70%) of which had fatal outcomes. To date, no HPAI A(H5) virus has caused sustainable human‐to‐human transmission. However, due to the lack of population immunity in humans and ongoing evolution of the virus, there is a continuing risk that clade 2.3.4.4 A(H5) viruses could cause an influenza pandemic if the ability to transmit efficiently among humans was gained. Therefore, multisectoral collaborations among the animal, environmental, and public health sectors are essential to conduct risk assessments and develop countermeasures to prevent disease and to control spread. In this article, we describe an assessment of the likelihood of clade 2.3.4.4 A(H5) viruses gaining human‐to‐human transmissibility and impact on human health should such human‐to‐human transmission occur. This structured analysis assessed properties of the virus, attributes of the human population, and ecology and epidemiology of these viruses in animal hosts.

Heat Stress Causes Immune Abnormalities via Massive Damage to Effect Proliferation and Differentiation of Lymphocytes in Broiler Chickens

Broiler chickens are highly sensitive to high ambient temperatures due to their feathers, lack of skin sweat glands, and high productivity. Heat stress (HS) is a major concern for the poultry industry because it negatively affects growth as well as immune functions, which increase the potential risk of infectious disease outbreaks. Therefore, it is vital to elucidate HS's effect on the avian immune system, especially considering the global rise in average surface temperature. Our study identified a series of immunological disorders in heat-stressed broiler chickens. We exposed 22-day-old broiler chickens to a continuous HS condition (34.5 ± 0.5°C) for 14 days and immunized them with a prototype bovine serum albumin (BSA) antigen. The plasma and lymphoid tissues (thymus, bursa of Fabricius, and spleen) were harvested at the end of the experiments to investigate the induction of BSA-specific immune responses. Our results revealed that plasma titers of immunoglobulin (Ig)Y, IgM, and IgA antibodies specific for BSA were lower than those of thermoneutral chickens immunized with BSA. Furthermore, the spleens of the heat-stressed broiler chickens displayed severe depression of Bu1⁺ B cells and CD3⁺ T cells, including CD4⁺ T cells and CD8⁺ T cells, and lacked a fully developed germinal center (GC), which is crucial for B cell proliferation. These immunological abnormalities might be associated with severe depression of CD4⁻CD8⁻ or CD4⁺CD8⁺ cells, which are precursors of either helper or killer T cells in the thymus and Bu1⁺ B cells in the bursa of Fabricius. Importantly, HS severely damaged the morphology of the thymic cortex and bursal follicles, where functional maturation of T and B cells occur. These results indicate that HS causes multiple immune abnormalities in broiler chickens by impairing the developmental process and functional maturation of T and B cells in both primary and secondary lymphoid tissues.