Ecogeographic Drivers of the Spatial Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Outbreaks in Europe and the United States, 2016-Early 2022

H5Nx highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses of clade 2.3.4.4 have caused outbreaks in Europe among wild and domestic birds since 2016 and were introduced to North America via wild migratory birds in December 2021. We examined the spatiotemporal extent of HPAI viruses across continents and characterized ecological and environmental predictors of virus spread between geographic regions by constructing a Bayesian phylodynamic generalized linear model (phylodynamic-GLM). The findings demonstrate localized epidemics of H5Nx throughout Europe in the first several years of the epizootic, followed by a singular branching point where H5N1 viruses were introduced to North America, likely via stopover locations throughout the North Atlantic. Once in the United States (US), H5Nx viruses spread at a greater rate between US-based regions as compared to prior spread in Europe. We established that geographic proximity is a predictor of virus spread between regions, implying that intercontinental transport across the Atlantic Ocean is relatively rare. An increase in mean ambient temperature over time was predictive of reduced H5Nx virus spread, which may reflect the effect of climate change on declines in host species abundance, decreased persistence of the virus in the environment, or changes in migratory patterns due to ecological alterations. Our data provide new knowledge about the spread and directionality of H5Nx virus dispersal in Europe and the US during an actively evolving intercontinental outbreak, including predictors of virus movement between regions, which will contribute to surveillance and mitigation strategies as the outbreak unfolds, and in future instances of uncontained avian spread of HPAI viruses.

Global dissemination of influenza A virus is driven by wild bird migration through arctic and subarctic zones

Influenza A viruses (IAV) circulate endemically among many wild aquatic bird populations that seasonally migrate between wintering grounds in southern latitudes to breeding ranges along the perimeter of the circumpolar arctic. Arctic and subarctic zones are hypothesized to serve as ecologic drivers of the intercontinental movement and reassortment of IAVs due to high densities of disparate populations of long distance migratory and native bird species present during breeding seasons. Iceland is a staging ground that connects the East Atlantic and North Atlantic American flyways, providing a unique study system for characterizing viral flow between eastern and western hemispheres. Using Bayesian phylodynamic analyses, we sought to evaluate the viral connectivity of Iceland to proximal regions and how inter-species transmission and reassortment dynamics in this region influence the geographic spread of low and highly pathogenic IAVs. Findings demonstrate that IAV movement in the arctic and subarctic reflects wild bird migration around the perimeter of the circumpolar north, favouring short-distance flights between proximal regions rather than long distance flights over the polar interior. Iceland connects virus movement between mainland Europe and North America, consistent with the westward migration of wild birds from mainland Europe to Northeastern Canada and Greenland. Though virus diffusion rates were similar among avian taxonomic groups in Iceland, gulls play an outsized role as sinks of IAVs from other avian hosts prior to onward migration. These data identify patterns of virus movement in northern latitudes and inform future surveillance strategies related to seasonal and emergent IAVs with potential public health concern.

Potential diagnostic biomarkers for pulmonary tuberculosis in humans are not elevated in Mycobacterium tuberculosis culture–positive Asian elephants (Elephas maximus)

OBJECTIVE

To determine (1) if chemokine (C-X-C motif) ligand 1 (CXCL1), matrix metalloproteinase 8 (MMP8), interleukin-10 (IL-10), interferon-γ (IFN-γ), and tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) can be detected in serum from Asian elephants, and (2) if their concentrations are significantly elevated in Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M.tb) culture–positive elephants compared to –negative elephants. CXCL1, MMP8, IL-10, IFN-γ, and TNF-α were recently identified as potential diagnostic biomarkers for pulmonary tuberculosis in experimental studies in animals and humans. Therefore, we hypothesized that they would be detectable and significantly elevated in M.tb culture–positive elephants compared to M.tb culture–negative elephants.

SAMPLE

101 Asian elephant serum samples, including 91 samples from 6 M.tb-negative elephants and 10 samples from 5 M.tb-positive elephants (none of which exhibited clinical signs of disease). M.tb status was determined by trunk wash culture.

PROCEDURES

Commercially available ELISA kits were used to determine the concentrations of each biomarker in serum samples.

RESULTS

Biomarker concentrations were below the limit of detection for the assay in 100/101 (99%) samples for CXCL1, 98/101 (97%) samples for MMP8, 85/101 (84%) samples for IL-10, 75/101 (74%) samples for IFN-γ, and 45/101 (45%) samples for TNF-α. Multiple M.tb culture–positive elephants did not have detectable levels of any of the 5 biomarkers.

CLINICAL RELEVANCE

CXCL1, MMP8, IL-10, IFN-γ, and TNF-α were not elevated in M.tb culture–positive Asian elephants compared to M.tb culture–negative Asian elephants. This may be related to disease state (ie, clinically asymptomatic). More sensitive assays are needed to better understand the role of these biomarkers in M.tb infection in Asian elephants.

Epidemiology and Ecology of Influenza A Viruses among Wildlife in the Arctic

Arctic regions are ecologically significant for the environmental persistence and geographic dissemination of influenza A viruses (IAVs) by avian hosts and other wildlife species. Data describing the epidemiology and ecology of IAVs among wildlife in the arctic are less frequently published compared to southern temperate regions, where prevalence and subtype diversity are more routinely documented. Following PRISMA guidelines, this systematic review addresses this gap by describing the prevalence, spatiotemporal distribution, and ecological characteristics of IAVs detected among wildlife and the environment in this understudied region of the globe. The literature search was performed in PubMed and Google Scholar using a set of pre-defined search terms to identify publications reporting on IAVs in Arctic regions between 1978 and February 2022. A total of 2125 articles were initially screened, 267 were assessed for eligibility, and 71 articles met inclusion criteria. IAVs have been detected in multiple wildlife species in all Arctic regions, including seabirds, shorebirds, waterfowl, seals, sea lions, whales, and terrestrial mammals, and in the environment. Isolates from wild birds comprise the majority of documented viruses derived from wildlife; however, among all animals and environmental matrices, 26 unique low and highly pathogenic subtypes have been characterized in the scientific literature from Arctic regions. Pooled prevalence across studies indicates 4.23% for wild birds, 3.42% among tested environmental matrices, and seroprevalences of 9.29% and 1.69% among marine and terrestrial mammals, respectively. Surveillance data are geographically biased, with most data from the Alaskan Arctic and many fewer reports from the Russian, Canadian, North Atlantic, and Western European Arctic. We highlight multiple important aspects of wildlife host, pathogen, and environmental ecology of IAVs in Arctic regions, including the role of avian migration and breeding cycles for the global spread of IAVs, evidence of inter-species and inter-continental reassortment at high latitudes, and how climate change-driven ecosystem shifts, including changes in the seasonal availability and distribution of dietary resources, have the potential to alter host–pathogen–environment dynamics in Arctic regions. We conclude by identifying gaps in knowledge and propose priorities for future research.

Population structure, intergroup interaction, and human contact govern infectious disease impacts in mountain gorilla populations

Infectious zoonotic diseases are a threat to wildlife conservation and global health. They are especially a concern for wild apes, which are vulnerable to many human infectious diseases. As ecotourism, deforestation, and great ape field research increase, the threat of human-sourced infections to wild populations becomes more substantial and could result in devastating population declines. The endangered mountain gorillas (Gorilla beringei beringei) of the Virunga Massif in east-central Africa suffer periodic disease outbreaks and are exposed to infections from human-sourced pathogens. It is important to understand the possible risks of disease introduction and spread in this population and how human contact may facilitate disease transmission. Here we present and evaluate an individual-based, stochastic, discrete-time disease transmission model to predict epidemic outcomes and better understand health risks to the Virunga mountain gorilla population. To model disease transmission we have derived estimates for gorilla contact, interaction, and migration rates. The model shows that the social structure of gorilla populations plays a profound role in governing disease impacts with subdivided populations experiencing less than 25% of the outbreak levels of a single homogeneous population. It predicts that gorilla group dispersal and limited group interactions are strong factors in preventing widespread population-level outbreaks of infectious disease after such diseases have been introduced into the population. However, even a moderate amount of human contact increases disease spread and can lead to population-level outbreaks.

Guidance for management of free-roaming community cats: a bioeconomic analysis

Objectives

This study used computer simulation modeling to estimate and compare costs of different free-roaming cat (FRC) management options (lethal and non-lethal removal, trap–neuter–return, combinations of these options and no action) and their ability to reduce FRC population abundance in open demographic settings. The findings provide a resource for selecting management approaches that are well matched for specific communities, goals and timelines, and they represent use of best available science to address FRC issues.

Methods

Multiple FRC management approaches were simulated at varying intensities using a stochastic individual-based model in the software package Vortex. Itemized costs were obtained from published literature and expert feedback. Metrics generated to evaluate and compare management scenarios included final population size, total cost and a cost efficiency index, which was the ratio between total cost and population size reduction.

Results

Simulations suggested that cost-effective reduction of FRC numbers required sufficient management intensity, regardless of management approach, and greatly improved when cat abandonment was minimized. Removal yielded the fastest initial reduction in cat abundance, but trap–neuter–return was a viable and potentially more cost-effective approach if performed at higher intensities over a sufficient duration. Of five management scenarios that reduced the final population size by approximately 45%, the three scenarios that relied exclusively on removal were considerably more expensive than the two scenarios that relied exclusively or primarily on sterilization.

Conclusions and relevance

FRCs present a challenge in many municipalities, and stakeholders representing different perspectives may promote varying and sometimes incompatible population management policies and strategies. Although scientific research is often used to identify FRC impacts, its use to identify viable, cost-effective management solutions has been inadequate. The data provided by simulating different interventions, combined with community-specific goals, priorities and ethics, provide a framework for better-informed FRC policy and management outcomes.

The future of zoonotic risk prediction

In the light of the urgency raised by the COVID-19 pandemic, global investment in wildlife virology is likely to increase, and new surveillance programmes will identify hundreds of novel viruses that might someday pose a threat to humans. To support the extensive task of laboratory characterization, scientists may increasingly rely on data-driven rubrics or machine learning models that learn from known zoonoses to identify which animal pathogens could someday pose a threat to global health. We synthesize the findings of an interdisciplinary workshop on zoonotic risk technologies to answer the following questions. What are the prerequisites, in terms of open data, equity and interdisciplinary collaboration, to the development and application of those tools? What effect could the technology have on global health? Who would control that technology, who would have access to it and who would benefit from it? Would it improve pandemic prevention? Could it create new challenges? This article is part of the theme issue 'Infectious disease macroecology: parasite diversity and dynamics across the globe'.

Simulating free-roaming cat population management options in open demographic environments

Large populations of free-roaming cats (FRCs) generate ongoing concerns for welfare of both individual animals and populations, for human public health, for viability of native wildlife populations, and for local ecological damage. Managing FRC populations is a complex task, without universal agreement on best practices. Previous analyses that use simulation modeling tools to evaluate alternative management methods have focused on relative efficacy of removal (or trap-return, TR), typically involving euthanasia, and sterilization (or trap-neuter-return, TNR) in demographically isolated populations. We used a stochastic demographic simulation approach to evaluate removal, permanent sterilization, and two postulated methods of temporary contraception for FRC population management. Our models include demographic connectivity to neighboring untreated cat populations through natural dispersal in a metapopulation context across urban and rural landscapes, and also feature abandonment of owned animals. Within population type, a given implementation rate of the TR strategy results in the most rapid rate of population decline and (when populations are isolated) the highest probability of population elimination, followed in order of decreasing efficacy by equivalent rates of implementation of TNR and temporary contraception. Even low levels of demographic connectivity significantly reduce the effectiveness of any management intervention, and continued abandonment is similarly problematic. This is the first demographic simulation analysis to consider the use of temporary contraception and account for the realities of FRC dispersal and owned cat abandonment.

Extreme conservation leads to recovery of the Virunga mountain gorillas

As wildlife populations are declining, conservationists are under increasing pressure to measure the effectiveness of different management strategies. Conventional conservation measures such as law enforcement and community development projects are typically designed to minimize negative human influences upon a species and its ecosystem. In contrast, we define “extreme” conservation as efforts targeted to deliberately increase positive human influences, including veterinary care and close monitoring of individual animals. Here we compare the impact of both conservation approaches upon the population growth rate of the critically endangered Virunga mountain gorillas (Gorilla beringei beringei), which increased by 50% since their nadir in 1981, from approximately 250 to nearly 400 gorillas. Using demographic data from 1967–2008, we show an annual decline of 0.7%±0.059% for unhabituated gorillas that received intensive levels of conventional conservation approaches, versus an increase 4.1%±0.088% for habituated gorillas that also received extreme conservation measures. Each group of habituated gorillas is now continuously guarded by a separate team of field staff during daylight hours and receives veterinary treatment for snares, respiratory disease, and other life-threatening conditions. These results suggest that conventional conservation efforts prevented a severe decline of the overall population, but additional extreme measures were needed to achieve positive growth. Demographic stochasticity and socioecological factors had minimal impact on variability in the growth rates. Veterinary interventions could account for up to 40% of the difference in growth rates between habituated versus unhabituated gorillas, with the remaining difference likely arising from greater protection against poachers. Thus, by increasing protection and facilitating veterinary treatment, the daily monitoring of each habituated group contributed to most of the difference in growth rates. Our results argue for wider consideration of extreme measures and offer a startling view of the enormous resources that may be needed to conserve some endangered species.

Proximate composition of milk from free-ranging mountain gorillas (Gorilla beringei beringei)

Published data on milk composition for nonhuman primates, especially great apes, are lacking. Milk composition data are important for understanding the physiology and evolution of mammalian milk production, as well as the nutritional requirements of infants. For many primate species these data have added relevance because of the need to hand raise infants orphaned by poaching or separated from their mothers in captivity. The proximate composition (dry matter (DM), protein, fat, sugar) of free-ranging mountain gorilla (MG) (Gorilla beringei beringei) milk was characterized from samples (N = 10) collected opportunistically during field procedures. The mean values for mid-lactation (1-50 months) milk samples from healthy MGs (N = 7) were: 10.7% DM, 1.9% fat, 1.4% crude protein, 6.8% sugar, and 0.53 kcal/g. These results are lower in fat and total energy than most other Hominidae, including humans. One early-lactation sample was high in protein content while the composition of two samples from gorillas with poor health and suspected poor milk quality both deviated from the normal, mid-lactation pattern. This survey adds to the data available for primate milk composition and suggests that wild MG infants normally consume milk that is lower in fat and total energy than human milk.

Brain structure variation in great apes, with attention to the mountain gorilla (Gorilla beringei beringei)

This report presents data regarding the brain structure of mountain gorillas (Gorilla beringei beringei) in comparison with other great apes. Magnetic resonance (MR) images of three mountain gorilla brains were obtained with a 3T scanner, and the volume of major neuroanatomical structures (neocortical gray matter, hippocampus, thalamus, striatum, and cerebellum) was measured. These data were included with our existing database that includes 23 chimpanzees, three western lowland gorillas, and six orangutans. We defined a multidimensional space by calculating the principal components (PCs) from the correlation matrix of brain structure fractions in the well-represented sample of chimpanzees. We then plotted data from all of the taxa in this space to examine phyletic variation in neural organization. Most of the variance in mountain gorillas, as well as other great apes, was contained within the chimpanzee range along the first two PCs, which accounted for 61.73% of the total variance. Thus, the majority of interspecific variation in brain structure observed among these ape taxa was no greater than the within-species variation seen in chimpanzees. The loadings on PCs indicated that the brain structure of great apes differs among taxa mostly in the relative sizes of the striatum, cerebellum, and hippocampus. These findings suggest possible functional differences among taxa in terms of neural adaptations for ecological and locomotor capacities. Importantly, these results fill a critical gap in current knowledge regarding great ape neuroanatomical diversity.

Reproductive capacity of free-roaming domestic cats and kitten survival rate

OBJECTIVE

To determine reproductive capacity of naturally breeding free-roaming domestic cats and kitten survival rate.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort and retrospective cross-sectional study.

ANIMALS

2,332 female cats brought to a trap-neuter-return clinic for neutering and 71 female cats and 171 kittens comprising 50 litters from a cohort study of feral cats in managed colonies.

PROCEDURE

Data collected for all cats included pregnancy, lactation, and estrus status and number of fetuses for pregnant cats. Additional data collected for feral cats in managed colonies included numbers of litters per year and kittens per litter, date of birth, kitten survival rate, and causes of death.

RESULTS

Pregnant cats were observed in all months of the year, but the percentage of cats found to be pregnant was highest in March, April, and May. Cats produced a mean of 1.4 litters/y, with a median of 3 kittens/litter (range, 1 to 6). Overall, 127 of 169 (75%) kittens died or disappeared before 6 months of age. Trauma was the most common cause of death.

CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE

Results illustrate the high reproductive capacity of free-roaming domestic cats. Realistic estimates of the reproductive capacity of female cats may be useful in assessing the effectiveness of population control strategies.

Seroprevalences of antibodies against Bartonella henselae and Toxoplasma gondii and fecal shedding of Cryptosporidium spp, Giardia spp, and Toxocara catiin feral and pet domestic cats

OBJECTIVE

To compare seroprevalences of antibodies against Bartonella henselae and Toxoplasma gondii and fecal shedding of Cryptosporidium spp, Giardia spp, and Toxocara cati in feral and pet domestic cats.

DESIGN

Prospective cross-sectional serologic and coprologic survey.

ANIMALS

100 feral cats and 76 pet domestic cats from Randolph County, NC.

PROCEDURE

Blood and fecal samples were collected and tested.

RESULTS

Percentages of feral cats seropositive for antibodies against B. henselae and T. gondii (93% and 63%, respectively) were significantly higher than percentages of pet cats (75% and 34%). Percentages of feral and pet cats with Cryptosporidium spp (7% of feral cats; 6% of pet cats), Giardia spp (6% of feral cats; 5% of pet cats), and T. cati ova (21% of feral cats; 18% of pet cats) in their feces were not significantly different between populations. Results of CBCs and serum biochemical analyses were not significantly different between feral and pet cats, except that feral cats had a significantly lower median PCV and significantly higher median neutrophil count.

CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE

Results suggested that feral and pet cats had similar baseline health status, as reflected by results of hematologic and serum biochemical testing and similar prevalences of infection with Cryptosporidium spp, Giardia spp, and T. cati. Feral cats did have higher seroprevalences of antibodies against B. henselae and T. gondii than did pet cats, but this likely was related to greater exposure to vectors of these organisms.

Time and financial costs of programs for live trapping feral cats

OBJECTIVE

To determine the time and financial costs of programs for live trapping feral cats and determine whether allowing cats to become acclimated to the traps improved trapping effectiveness.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

ANIMALS

107 feral cats in 9 colonies.

PROCEDURE

15 traps were set at each colony for 5 consecutive nights, and 5 traps were then set per night until trapping was complete. In 4 colonies, traps were immediately baited and set; in the remaining 5 colonies, traps were left open and cats were fed in the traps for 3 days prior to the initiation of trapping. Costs for bait and labor were calculated, and trapping effort and efficiency were assessed.

RESULTS

Mean +/- SD overall trapping effort (ie, number of trap-nights until at least 90% of the cats in the colony had been captured or until no more than 1 cat remained untrapped) was 8.9 +/- 3.9 trap-nights per cat captured. Mean overall trapping efficiency (ie, percentage of cats captured per colony) was 98.0 +/- 4.0%. There were no significant differences in trapping effort or efficiency between colonies that were provided an acclimation period and colonies that were not. Overall trapping costs were significantly higher for colonies provided an acclimation period.

CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE

Results suggest that these live-trapping protocols were effective. Feeding cats their regular diets in the traps for 3 days prior to the initiation of trapping did not have a significant effect on trapping effort or efficiency in the present study but was associated with significant increases in trapping costs.

Failure to transmit avian vacuolar myelinopathy to mallard ducks

Avian vacuolar myelinopathy (AVM) is a neurologic disease that has been diagnosed in free-ranging birds in the southeastern United States. Bald eagles (Haliaeetus leuocephalus), American coots (Fulica americana), and mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) have been affected. Previous investigations have not determined the etiology of this disease. In November and December 2002, we attempted to induce AVM in game-farmed mallards through four, 7-day exposure trials. Mallards were housed in six groups of eight, with two of these groups serving as controls. One group was housed with AVM-affected coots; one group was tube fed daily with water from the lake where affected coots were captured; one group was tube fed daily with aquatic vegetation (Hydrilla verticillata) from the same lake; and another group was tube fed daily with sediment from the lake. No ducks exhibited clinical neurologic abnormalities consistent with AVM and no evidence of AVM was present at histopathologic examination of brain tissue. Although limitations in sample size, quantity of individual doses, frequency of dose administration, duration of exposure, and timing of these trials restrict the interpretation of the findings, AVM was not readily transmitted by direct contact, water, hydrilla, or sediment in this investigation.

Clinical features of avian vacuolar myelinopathy in American coots

OBJECTIVE

To characterize clinical features of avian vacuolar myelinopathy (AVM) in American coots.

DESIGN

Case-control study.

ANIMALS

26 AVM-affected American coots and 12 unaffected coots.

PROCEDURES

Complete physical, neurologic, hematologic, and plasma biochemical evaluations were performed. Affected coots received supportive care. All coots died or were euthanatized, and AVM status was confirmed via histopathologic findings.

RESULTS

3 severely affected coots were euthanatized immediately after examination. Seventeen affected coots were found dead within 7 days of admission, but 5 affected coots survived > 21 days and had signs of clinical recovery. Abnormal physical examination findings appeared to be related to general debilitation. Ataxia (88%), decreased withdrawal reflexes (88%), proprioceptive deficits (81%), decreased vent responses (69%), beak or tongue weakness (42%), and head tremors (31%), as well as absent pupillary light responses (46%), anisocoria (15%), apparent blindness (4%), nystagmus (4%), and strabismus (4%) were detected. Few gross abnormalities were detected at necropsy, but histologically, all AVM-affected coots had severe vacuolation of white matter of the brain. None of the control coots had vacuolation.

CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE

Although there was considerable variability in form and severity of clinical neurologic abnormalities, clinical signs common in AVM-affected birds were identified. Clinical recovery of some AVM-affected coots can occur when supportive care is administered. Until the etiology is identified, caution should be exercised when rehabilitating and releasing coots thought to be affected by AVM.

Seroprevalence of Toxoplasma gondii and Trichinella spiralis in North Carolina black bears (Ursus americanus)

Serum samples from 143 hunter-killed black bears were collected during the 1996 and 1997 black bear hunting seasons in eastern North Carolina. All samples were tested for antibodies to Toxoplasma gondii by the modified agglutination test. Antibodies to T. gondii were present in 120 of 143 (84%) bears. Females had significantly higher titers than males (Wilcoxon rank sums test, P = 0.045), and titers increased with age (Jonckheere test, P = 0.01). Samples collected during 1996 (n = 79) were tested for antibodies to Trichinella spiralis by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. No samples were positive for antibodies to T. spiralis.

Muscular Sarcocystis infection in a bear (Ursus americanus)

Sarcocysts of an unidentified Sarcocystis species were found in sections of skeletal muscles of a black bear (Ursus americanus) from North Carolina. Two sarcocysts in a section measured 45 x 37.5 microm and 67.5 x 50 microm and had a thin (<2 microm) sarcocyst wall. The villar protrusions on the cyst wall were up to 2 microm long and up to 0.7 microm wide. The bradyzoites were approximately 6 X 2.5 microm in size. This is the first report of muscular Sarcocystis in a bear.

Systemic arterial dirofilariasis in five dogs

Systemic arterial dirofilariasis is an unusual manifestation of heartworm disease of dogs that results from aberrant migration of Dirofilaria immitis into the peripheral arterial circulation. To expand the clinical characterization of systemic arterial dirofilariasis, 5 dogs evaluated at the North Carolina State University's College of Veterinary Medicine were reviewed. Common clinical presentations included hindlimb lameness, paresthesia of hindlimbs, and interdigital ischemic necrosis resulting from thromboembolic disease. Visualization of heartworms with angiography or ultrasonography confirmed the diagnosis in all cases. All 5 dogs were treated with an adulticide; 3 dogs were treated with thiacetasamide sodium and 2 with melarsomine dihydrochloride. Four of the 5 dogs survived the initial treatment period; 1 dog died of severe thromboembolic complications after thiacatarsamide sodium therapy. The treatment of systemic arterial dirofilariasis creates a therapeutic challenge because of multiple potential complications resulting from thromboembolic disease.