Assessing the health impacts of electric vehicles through air pollution in the United States

Health benefits of US light-duty vehicle electrification: Roles of fleet dynamics, clean electricity, and policy timing

We present a dynamic perspective to quantify the air quality-related health impacts of the electrification of light-duty vehicles in the United States between 2022 and 2050. Using a fleet turnover model and future electricity generation mix scenarios, we compare ambitious vehicle electrification to fleet renewal relying on newer internal combustion engine vehicles, without electric vehicles. The model includes vehicle-level pollutant emission factors and a reduced complexity air quality and valuation model and covers direct (tailpipe, brake wear, and tire wear) and indirect (production of electricity and liquid fuels) emissions of NOx, SO2, PM2.5, NH3, and VOCs, with a breakdown at the county level to identify geographical disparities in the distribution of health impacts. Short-term health benefits are mostly generated by reductions in NOx emissions from newer gasoline vehicles, while fleet electrification generates further benefits in the long term. The electricity mix plays a crucial role in the success of electrification policies. With continued grid decarbonization, electrification would reduce harmful air quality-related health impacts cumulatively by 84 to 188 billion USD over the study period, compared with fleet renewal without electric vehicles. In contrast, artificially freezing the 2022 grid would make electrification responsible for 32 to 71 billion USD additional health disbenefits compared with fleet renewal. Finally, we show that while fleet electrification achieves most of its benefits over fleet renewal in the long term, delaying the implementation of such policies would sacrifice meaningful cumulative benefits.

Electric vehicles and health: A scoping review

BACKGROUND

The health impacts of the rapid transition to the use of electric vehicles are largely unexplored. We completed a scoping review to assess the state of the evidence on use of battery electric and hybrid electric vehicles and health.

METHODS

We conducted a literature search of MEDLINE, Embase, Global Health, CINAHL, Scopus, and Environmental Science Collection databases for articles published January 1990 to January 2024. We included articles if they presented observed or modeled data on the association between battery electric or hybrid electric cars, trucks, or buses and health-related outcomes. We abstracted data and summarized results.

RESULTS

Out of 897 reviewed articles, 52 met our inclusion criteria. The majority of included articles examined transitions to the use of electric vehicles (n = 49, 94%), with fewer studies examining hybrid electric vehicles (n = 11, 21%) or plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (n = 8, 15%). The most common outcomes examined were premature death (n = 41, 79%) and monetized health outcomes such as medical expenditures (n = 33, 63%). We identified only one observational study on the impact of electric vehicles on health; all other studies reported modeled data. Almost every study (n = 51, 98%) reported some evidence of a positive health impact of transitioning to electric or hybrid electric vehicles, although magnitudes of association varied. There was a paucity of information on the environmental justice implications of vehicle transitions.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of the current literature on electric vehicles and health suggest an overall positive health impact of transitioning to electric vehicles. Additional observational studies would help expand our understanding of the real-world health effects of electric vehicles. Future research focused on the environmental justice implications of vehicle fleet transitions could provide additional information about the extent to which the health benefits occur equitably across populations.

Adopting electric school buses in the United States: Health and climate benefits

Electric school buses have been proposed as an alternative to reduce the health and climate impacts of the current U.S. school bus fleet, of which a substantial share are highly polluting old diesel vehicles. However, the climate and health benefits of electric school buses are not well known. As they are substantially more costly than diesel buses, assessing their benefits is needed to inform policy decisions. We assess the health benefits of electric school buses in the United States from reduced adult mortality and childhood asthma onset risks due to exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5). We also evaluate climate benefits from reduced greenhouse-gas emissions. We find that replacing the average diesel bus in the U.S. fleet in 2017 with an electric bus yields $84,200 in total benefits. Climate benefits amount to $40,400/bus, whereas health benefits amount to $43,800/bus due to 4.42*10-3 fewer PM2.5-attributable deaths ($40,000 of total) and 7.42*10-3 fewer PM2.5-attributable new childhood asthma cases ($3,700 of total). However, health benefits of electric buses vary substantially by driving location and model year (MY) of the diesel buses they replace. Replacing old, MY 2005 diesel buses in large cities yields $207,200/bus in health benefits and is likely cost-beneficial, although other policies that accelerate fleet turnover in these areas deserve consideration. Electric school buses driven in rural areas achieve small health benefits from reduced exposure to ambient PM2.5. Further research assessing benefits of reduced exposure to in-cabin air pollution among children riding buses would be valuable to inform policy decisions.

Health benefits of vehicle electrification through air pollution in Shanghai, China

Vehicle electrification has been recognized for its potential to reduce emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases in China. Several studies have estimated how national-level policies of electric vehicle (EV) adoption might bring very large environmental and public health benefits from improved air quality to China. However, large-scale adoption is very costly, some regions derive more benefits from large-scale EV adoption than others, and the benefits of replacing internal combustion engines in specific cities are less known. Therefore, it is important for policymakers to design incentives based on regional characteristics - especially for megacities like Shanghai - which typically suffer from worse air quality and where a larger population is exposed to emissions from vehicles. Over the past five years, Shanghai has offered substantial personal subsidies for passenger EVs to accelerate its electrification efforts. Still, it remains uncertain whether EV benefits justify the strength of incentives. The purpose of our study is to evaluate the health and climate benefits of replacing light-duty gasoline vehicles (ICEVs) with battery EVs in the city of Shanghai. We assess health impacts due to ICEV emissions of primary fine particulate matter, NOx, and volatile organic compounds, and to powerplant emissions of NOx and SO2 due to EV charging. We incorporate climate benefits from reduced greenhouse gas emissions based on existing research. We find that the benefit of replacing the average ICEV with an EV in Shanghai is US$6400 (2400-14,700), with health impacts of EVs about 20 times lower than the average ICEV. Larger benefits ensue if older ICEVs are replaced, but replacing newer China ICEVs also achieves positive health benefits. As Shanghai plans to stop providing personal subsidies for EV purchases in 2024, our results show that EVs achieve public health and climate benefits and can help inform policymaking strategies in Shanghai and other megacities.

Neighborhood Environmental Burden and Cardiovascular Health in the US

Importance

Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death in the US. However, little is known about the association between cumulative environmental burden and cardiovascular health across US neighborhoods.

Objective

To evaluate the association of neighborhood-level environmental burden with prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors and diseases, overall and by levels of social vulnerability.

Design, Settings, and Participants

This was a national cross-sectional study of 71 659 US Census tracts. Environmental burden (EBI) and social vulnerability indices from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry were linked to the 2020 CDC PLACES data set. Data were analyzed from March to October 2023.

Exposures

The EBI, a measure of cumulative environmental burden encompassing 5 domains (air pollution, hazardous or toxic sites, built environment, transportation infrastructure, and water pollution).

Main Outcomes and Measures

Neighborhood-level prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors (hypertension, diabetes, and obesity) and cardiovascular diseases (coronary heart disease and stroke).

Results

Across the US, neighborhoods with the highest environmental burden (top EBI quartile) were more likely than those with the lowest environmental burden (bottom EBI quartile) to be urban (16 626 [92.7%] vs 13 414 [75.4%]), in the Midwest (5191 [28.9%] vs 2782 [15.6%]), have greater median (IQR) social vulnerability scores (0.64 [0.36-0.85] vs 0.42 [0.20-0.65]), and have higher proportions of adults in racial or ethnic minority groups (median [IQR], 34% [12-73] vs 12% [5-30]). After adjustment, neighborhoods with the highest environmental burden had significantly higher rates of cardiovascular risk factors than those with the lowest burden, including hypertension (mean [SD], 32.83% [7.99] vs 32.14% [6.99]; adjusted difference, 0.84%; 95% CI, 0.71-0.98), diabetes (mean [SD], 12.19% [4.33] vs 10.68% [3.27]; adjusted difference, 0.62%; 95% CI, 0.53-0.70), and obesity (mean [SD], 33.57% [7.62] vs 30.86% [6.15]; adjusted difference, 0.77%; 95% CI, 0.60-0.94). Similarly, neighborhoods with the highest environmental burden had significantly higher rates of coronary heart disease (mean [SD], 6.66% [2.15] vs 6.82% [2.41]; adjusted difference, 0.28%; 95% CI, 0.22-0.33) and stroke (mean [SD], 3.65% [1.47] vs 3.31% [1.12]; adjusted difference, 0.19%; 95% CI, 0.15-0.22). Results were consistent after matching highest and lowest environmentally burdened neighborhoods geospatially and based on other covariates. The associations between environmental burden quartiles and cardiovascular risk factors and diseases were most pronounced among socially vulnerable neighborhoods.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cross-sectional study of US neighborhoods, cumulative environmental burden was associated with higher rates of cardiovascular risk factors and diseases, although absolute differences were small. The strongest associations were observed in socially vulnerable neighborhoods. Whether initiatives that address poor environmental conditions will improve cardiovascular health requires additional prospective investigations.

Life cycle assessment of electric vehicles: a systematic review of literature

This study addresses the pressing need to evaluate the life cycle assessment (LCA) of electric vehicles (EVs) in comparison to traditional vehicles, amid growing environmental concerns and the quest for sustainable transportation alternatives. Through a systematic four-stage literature review, it strives to provide essential insights into the environmental impact, energy consumption, and resource utilization associated with EVs, thereby informing well-informed decisions in the transition to more sustainable transportation systems. The study's findings underscore a compelling environmental advantage of EVs. They emit a staggering 97% less CO2 equivalent emissions when compared to petrol vehicles, and a significant 70% less compared to their diesel counterparts, rendering them a crucial instrument in the battle against climate change. These environmental benefits are intricately linked to the adoption of clean energy sources and advanced battery technology. Furthermore, the study highlights the potential for additional emissions reduction through the extension of EV lifespans achieved by recycling and advanced battery technologies, with Li-ion batteries enjoying a second life as secondary storage systems. However, challenges remain, most notably the scarcity of rare earth materials essential for EV technology. The study's policy recommendations advocate for a swift shift towards clean energy sources in both EV production and usage, substantial investments in advanced battery technology, and robust support for recycling initiatives. Addressing the rare earth material shortage is paramount to the sustained growth and viability of EVs, facilitating a greener and more sustainable future in the realm of transportation.

Carbon mitigation and health effects of fleet electrification in China's Yangtze River Delta

Fleet electrification is one of the most promising strategies to mitigate carbon emissions and improve air quality. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the currently unclear CO2 mitigation and human health benefits from electric vehicle (EV) adoption and energy decarbonization in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region by integrating fleet modeling, emission projection, air quality modeling and health risk assessment. Based on future socioeconomic trajectories, we project that the total vehicle stock in the YRD region will peak at 107-117 million around 2045-2050. The transition to EVs combined with largely renewable energy in the YRD region can potentially reduce CO2 emissions by 870 Tg in 2060 and brings along substantial health co-benefits with ∼360 avoided premature deaths per million from reduced PM2.5 and O3 concentrations. This study further explores the NO2-attributable burden from road transportation and reveals that fleet electrification could yield greater NO2-attributable health benefits than those from reduced PM2.5 and O3, especially in traffic-dense urban areas. Those findings indicate that China's near-term energy development plans (35% renewable energy) have created the conditions for large-scale EV adoption. Our results imply that the benefits of EVs exhibit substantial spatial heterogeneity, underscoring the importance of region-specific EV incentive policies, and hint that policymakers should prioritize densely populated megacities to maximize the potential for public health gains.

The impact of the air pollution on health in New York City

New York City is attempting to find a solution to an issue that many states and cities face: how to minimize air pollution so that it has fewer negative impacts on human health. Despite having the highest population in the United States (US), New York City typically has reasonably clean air. As the City and State of New York have worked to reduce emissions from local and regional sources, the air quality in New York City has improved during the past few decades. Despite these advancements, air pollution still poses a severe hazard to the health of everyone living in New York's environment. Various diseases including respiratory, circulatory, neurological, gastrointestinal, and urinary illnesses, which can be fatal, are intimately associated with air pollution. This review article will concentrate on how air pollution affects respiratory diseases such as asthma in children. In addition to analyzing the severe effects of air pollution on the vulnerable population, this review article will highlight the health repercussions of air pollution on New York City and its residents. furthermore, we argue for potential ideas and discoveries while also putting up a policy option to lower air pollution.

Sports Utility Vehicles: A Public Health Model of Their Climate and Air Pollution Impacts in the United Kingdom

The emission benefits of shifting towards battery electric vehicles have so far been hampered by a trend towards sports utility vehicles (SUVs). This study assesses the current and future emissions from SUVs and their potential impact on public health and climate targets. We modelled five scenarios of varying SUV sales and electrification rates, and projected associated carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions. Multiple linear regression was used to determine the relationship between vehicle characteristics and emissions. Cumulative CO2 emissions were valued using the social cost of carbon approach. Life table analyses were used to project and value life years saved from NOx emission reductions. Larger SUVs were disproportionately high emitters of CO2 and NOx. Replacing these with small SUVs achieved significant benefits, saving 702 MtCO2e by 2050 and 1.8 million life years from NO2 reductions. The largest benefits were achieved when combined with electrification, saving 1181 MtCO2e and gaining 3.7 million life years, with a societal value in the range of GBP 10-100s billion(s). Downsizing SUVs could be associated with major public health benefits from reduced CO2 and NOx emissions, in addition to the benefits of electrification. This could be achieved by demand-side mass-based vehicle taxation and supply-side changes to regulations, by tying emission limits to a vehicle's footprint rather than its mass.

Effect of air pollution on disease burden, mortality, and life expectancy in North Africa and the Middle East: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Air pollution is the sixth highest risk factor for attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in North Africa and the Middle East, but the relative importance of different subtypes of air pollution and any potential differences in their health effects by population demographics or country-level socioeconomic factors have not been fully explored. The objective of this study was to investigate the effect of high ambient particulate matter less than 2·5 μm in size (PM) and ambient ozone air pollution on disease burden, mortality, and life expectancy in 21 countries in the North Africa and the Middle East super-region from 1990 to 2019 using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study estimates.

METHODS

The study data were derived from GBD 2019, examining data from 1999 to 2019 in North Africa and the Middle East. In this study, the types of air pollution investigated included PM pollution and ambient ozone pollution. PM pollution itself was categorised as household air pollution from solid fuels and ambient PM pollution. The burden attributable to each risk factor, directly or indirectly, was incorporated in the population attributable fraction to estimate the total attributable deaths and DALYs. The summary exposure value (SEV) as the relative risk-weighted prevalence of exposure was extracted to compare the distribution of excess risk times the exposure level in a population where everyone is at maximum risk and ranges from zero (no excess risk exists in a population) to 100 (highest risk). The effect of air pollution on life expectancy was estimated via a cause-deleted life table analysis.

FINDINGS

The age-standardised DALYs rate attributable to air pollution declined by 44·5%, from 4884·2 (95% uncertainty interval 4381·5-5555·4) to 2710·4 (2317·3-3125·6) per 100 000 from 1990 to 2019. Afghanistan (6992·3, 5627·7-8482·7), Yemen (4212·4, 3241·3-5418·1), and Egypt (4034·8, 3027·7-5138·6) had the highest age-standardised DALYs rates attributable to air pollution in 2019 per 100 000, whereas Türkiye (1329·2, 1033·7-1654·7), Jordan (1447·3, 1154·2-1758·5), and Iran (1603·0, 1404·7-1813·8) had the lowest rates. During the study period, the age-standardised SEV of air pollution (PM and ambient ozone in total) decreased by 10·9% (5·8-17·7%) in the super-region, whereas the SEV of ambient ozone pollution alone increased by 7·7% (0·7-14·3%). Among the components of PM pollution, the SEV of ambient PM pollution increased by 40·1% (25·2-63·7%); however, the SEV of household air pollution from solid fuels decreased by 70·6% (64·1-77·0%). Among the investigated types of air pollution, 98·9% of the DALYs from air pollution in the super-region were attributable to PM pollution. If air pollution had been lowered to the theoretical minimum risk exposure levels for 2019, then the average life expectancy would have been 1·6 years higher.

INTERPRETATION

The burden attributable to air pollution substantially decreased in the study period across the super-region as a whole. Most of the burden from air pollution is attributed to PM pollution, the exposure to which has substantially increased in the past three decades. Interventions and policies that reduce population exposure to PM pollution could potentially increase the average life expectancy in the super-region. This finding calls for concerted efforts from governments and public health authorities in the super-region to tackle air pollution as an important threat to population health.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The United States and China on the paths and policies to carbon neutrality

The rapid economic development has highlighted the global climate change problem and carbon dioxide emissions have brought challenges to global climate change. The combined carbon emissions of the United States and China are nearly half of global carbon emissions. These two countries have made great contributions to environmental protection and responded actively to global warming, and set the goal of carbon neutrality. This study takes the United States and China as examples to compare their national paths and policies to achieve carbon neutrality while also analyzing the stage effects of carbon emission reduction in these two countries. This study found that the policy systems in the United States and China are opposites of each other. The United States is a "Bottom to Top" system while China is a "Top to Bottom". The CO₂ emission in the United States is currently in the absolute carbon emission reduction period, that is, the reduction of total carbon emissions; while China is in the relative carbon emission reduction period, that is, the reduction of carbon emission intensity. China's transition time from carbon peaking to carbon neutrality is shorter than that of the United States, which is a huge challenge for China because its population is much larger than that of the United States. The results of this research can be used by other countries and regions for supporting carbon reduction policy decision-making and achieving UN sustainable development goals (SDGs).

FE Analysis of Motorcycle Helmet Performance under Severe Accidents

A helmet is essential protective equipment for the safety of motorcyclists and their passengers. However, motorcycle accidents can cause severe injuries and fatalities, even when wearing helmets, because the strength of motorcycle helmets lacks head protectability in actual impact accidents. Thus, this research investigates the structural performance of commercial motorcycle helmets in Thailand for head injury prevention using finite element analysis via LS-DYNA. The helmet structural model was firstly validated under impact analysis by comparing with the test according to the TIS 369-2557 standard. The finite element results showed that the difference in maximum acceleration was only 4.8%. The protective efficacy of the helmet structure was then studied and analyzed by simulation under various velocities and impact angles according to three cases of accidents. The structural strength was investigated by assessing energy absorption, HIC, and AIS. The worst case was caused when high impact speeds and angles were applied, which showed the highest impact force and HIC. It also enabled a 100% probability of head damage according to AIS 2+, which causes fatality to passengers during impact accidents. The safest conditions in terms of head injury severity occurred when the impact angle was 45 degrees. Finally, at least 75% energy absorption of foam was further recommended for safety design to reduce head injury from motorcycle accidents.

Health benefits of decreases in on-road transportation emissions in the United States from 2008 to 2017

Decades of air pollution regulation have yielded enormous benefits in the United States, but vehicle emissions remain a climate and public health issue. Studies have quantified the vehicle-related fine particulate matter (PM_2.5)-attributable mortality but lack the combination of proper counterfactual scenarios, latest epidemiological evidence, and detailed spatial resolution; all needed to assess the benefits of recent emission reductions. We use this combination to assess PM_2.5-attributable health benefits and also assess the climate benefits of on-road emission reductions between 2008 and 2017. We estimate total benefits of $270 (190 to 480) billion in 2017. Vehicle-related PM_2.5-attributable deaths decreased from 27,700 in 2008 to 19,800 in 2017; however, had per-mile emission factors remained at 2008 levels, 48,200 deaths would have occurred in 2017. The 74% increase from 27,700 to 48,200 PM_2.5-attributable deaths with the same emission factors is due to lower baseline PM_2.5 concentrations (+26%), more vehicle miles and fleet composition changes (+22%), higher baseline mortality (+13%), and interactions among these (+12%). Climate benefits were small (3 to 19% of the total). The percent reductions in emissions and PM_2.5-attributable deaths were similar despite an opportunity to achieve disproportionately large health benefits by reducing high-impact emissions of passenger light-duty vehicles in urban areas. Increasingly large vehicles and an aging population, increasing mortality, suggest large health benefits in urban areas require more stringent policies. Local policies can be effective because high-impact primary PM_2.5 and NH₃ emissions disperse little outside metropolitan areas. Complementary national-level policies for NO_x are merited because of its substantial impacts-with little spatial variability-and dispersion across states and metropolitan areas.

An Empirical Research of the Mechanism from Electric Vehicle Production to Charging Station R&D in China

Electric vehicles (EVs) are regarded as an effective method for dealing with serious environmental pollution. The Chinese government has implemented a series of incentives to accelerate the promotion of EV. However, the increasing production of EVs gives rise to a greater demand for better quality charging station. This study aimed to certify the impact of the production of EVs on charging station research and development (R&D) in China, with mediating effect methods and a panel fixed effect model. The conclusions derived from the study were: (1) Statistically, the production of EVs positively and significantly impacts charging station R&D; (2) the mediating role of investment in charging stations is verified in the relationship between the production of EVs and charging station R&D; (3) environmental tax can moderate the relationship between the production of EVs and charging station R&D. These results implicate, for the first time, that the production of EVs can enhance charging station R&D through the mediating role of charging station investments and the moderating role of environmental tax.