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Barbalat G, Hough I, Dorman M, Lepeule J, Kloog I. A multi-resolution ensemble model of three decision-tree-based algorithms to predict daily NO 2 concentration in France 2005-2022. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2024; 257:119241. [PMID: 38810827 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2024.119241] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/19/2024] [Revised: 05/13/2024] [Accepted: 05/26/2024] [Indexed: 05/31/2024]
Abstract
Understanding and managing the health effects of Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) requires high resolution spatiotemporal exposure maps. Here, we developed a multi-stage multi-resolution ensemble model that predicts daily NO2 concentration across continental France from 2005 to 2022. Innovations of this work include the computation of daily predictions at a 200 m resolution in large urban areas and the use of a spatio-temporal blocking procedure to avoid data leakage and ensure fair performance estimation. Predictions were obtained after three cascading stages of modeling: (1) predicting NO2 total column density from Ozone Monitoring Instrument satellite; (2) predicting daily NO2 concentrations at a 1 km spatial resolution using a large set of potential predictors such as predictions obtained from stage 1, land-cover and road traffic data; and (3) predicting residuals from stage 2 models at a 200 m resolution in large urban areas. The latter two stages used a generalized additive model to ensemble predictions of three decision-tree algorithms (random forest, extreme gradient boosting and categorical boosting). Cross-validated performances of our ensemble models were overall very good, with a ten-fold cross-validated R2 for the 1 km model of 0.83, and of 0.69 for the 200 m model. All three basis learners participated in the ensemble predictions to various degrees depending on time and space. In sum, our multi-stage approach was able to predict daily NO2 concentrations with a relatively low error. Ensembling the predictions maximizes the chance of obtaining accurate values if one basis learner fails in a specific area or at a particular time, by relying on the other learners. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study aiming to predict NO2 concentrations in France with such a high spatiotemporal resolution, large spatial extent, and long temporal coverage. Exposure estimates are available to investigate NO2 health effects in epidemiological studies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Guillaume Barbalat
- University Grenoble Alpes, Inserm, CNRS, Team of Environmental Epidemiology Applied to Development and Respiratory Health, Institute for Advanced Biosciences (IAB), Grenoble, France; Centre Ressource de Réhabilitation Psychosociale et de Remédiation Cognitive, Hôpital Le Vinatier, Pôle Centre Rive Gauche, UMR, 5229, CNRS & Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, France.
| | - Ian Hough
- Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, INRAE, IRD, INP-G, IGE (UMR 5001), Grenoble, France
| | - Michael Dorman
- The Department of Environmental, Geoinformatics and Urban Planning Sciences, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Israel
| | - Johanna Lepeule
- University Grenoble Alpes, Inserm, CNRS, Team of Environmental Epidemiology Applied to Development and Respiratory Health, Institute for Advanced Biosciences (IAB), Grenoble, France.
| | - Itai Kloog
- The Department of Environmental, Geoinformatics and Urban Planning Sciences, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Israel; Department of Environmental Medicine and Public Health, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA
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Sprague NL, Uong SP, Kelsall NC, Jacobowitz AL, Quinn JW, Keyes KM, Rundle AG. Using geographic effect measure modification to examine socioeconomic-related surface temperature disparities in New York City. JOURNAL OF EXPOSURE SCIENCE & ENVIRONMENTAL EPIDEMIOLOGY 2024:10.1038/s41370-024-00714-6. [PMID: 39179752 DOI: 10.1038/s41370-024-00714-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/18/2024] [Revised: 08/13/2024] [Accepted: 08/14/2024] [Indexed: 08/26/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Lower socioeconomic (SES) communities are more likely to be situated in urban heat islands and have higher heat exposures than their higher SES counterparts, and this inequality is expected to intensify due to climate change. OBJECTIVES To examine the relationship between surface temperatures and SES in New York City (NYC) by employing a novel analytical approach. Through incorporating modifiable features, this study aims to identify potential locations where mitigation interventions can be implemented to reduce heat disparities associated with SES. METHODS Using the 2013-2017 American Community Survey, U.S Landsat-8 Analysis Ready Data surface temperatures (measured on 8/12/2016), and the NYC Land Cover Dataset at the census tract level (2098 tracts), this study examines the association between two components of tract-level SES (percentage of individuals living below the poverty line and the percentage of individuals without a high school degree) and summer day surface temperature in NYC. First, we examine this association with an unrestricted NYC linear regression, examining the city-wide association between the two SES facets and summer surface temperature, with additional models adjusting for altitude, shoreline, and nature-cover. Then, we assess geographic effect measure modification by employing the same models to three supplemental regression model strategies (borough-restricted and community district-restricted linear regressions, and geographically weighted regression (GWR)) that examined associations within smaller intra-city areas. RESULTS All regression strategies identified areas where lower neighborhood SES composition is associated with higher summer day surface temperatures. The unrestricted NYC regressions revealed widespread disparities, while the borough-restricted and community district-restricted regressions identified specific political boundaries within which these disparities existed. The GWR, addressing spatial autocorrelation, identified significant socioeconomic heat disparities in locations such as northwest Bronx, central Brooklyn, and uptown Manhattan. These findings underscore the need for targeted policies and community interventions, including equitable urban planning and cooling strategies, to mitigate heat exposure in vulnerable neighborhoods. IMPACT STATEMENT This study redefines previous research on urban socioeconomic disparities in heat exposure by investigating both modifiable (nature cover) and non-modifiable (altitude and shoreline) built environment factors affecting local temperatures at the census tract level in New York City. Through a novel analytical approach, the research aims to highlight intervention opportunities to mitigate heat disparities related to socioeconomic status. By examining the association between surface temperatures and socioeconomic status, as well as investigating different geographic and governmental scales, this study offers actionable insights for policymakers and community members to address heat exposure inequalities effectively across different administrative boundaries. The objective is to pinpoint potential sites for reducing socioeconomic heat exposure disparities at various geographic and political levels.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nadav L Sprague
- Department of Epidemiology, Columbia Mailman School of Public Health, 722 W 168th St., New York, NY, 10032, USA.
| | - Stephen P Uong
- Department of Epidemiology, Columbia Mailman School of Public Health, 722 W 168th St., New York, NY, 10032, USA
| | - Nora C Kelsall
- Department of Epidemiology, Columbia Mailman School of Public Health, 722 W 168th St., New York, NY, 10032, USA
| | - Ahuva L Jacobowitz
- Department of Epidemiology, Columbia Mailman School of Public Health, 722 W 168th St., New York, NY, 10032, USA
| | - James W Quinn
- Department of Epidemiology, Columbia Mailman School of Public Health, 722 W 168th St., New York, NY, 10032, USA
| | - Katherine M Keyes
- Department of Epidemiology, Columbia Mailman School of Public Health, 722 W 168th St., New York, NY, 10032, USA
| | - Andrew G Rundle
- Department of Epidemiology, Columbia Mailman School of Public Health, 722 W 168th St., New York, NY, 10032, USA
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Hamroun A, Génin M, Glowacki F, Sautenet B, Leffondré K, De Courrèges A, Dauchet L, Gauthier V, Bayer F, Lassalle M, Couchoud C, Amouyel P, Occelli F. Multiple air pollutant exposure is associated with higher risk of all-cause mortality in dialysis patients: a French registry-based nationwide study. Front Public Health 2024; 12:1390999. [PMID: 39139668 PMCID: PMC11319261 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1390999] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/24/2024] [Accepted: 07/16/2024] [Indexed: 08/15/2024] Open
Abstract
Background Little is known about the effect of combined exposure to different air pollutants on mortality in dialysis patients. This study aimed to investigate the association of multiple exposures to air pollutants with all-cause and cause-specific death in dialysis patients. Materials and methods This registry-based nationwide cohort study included 90,373 adult kidney failure patients initiating maintenance dialysis between 2012 and 2020 identified from the French REIN registry. Estimated mean annual municipality levels of PM2.5, PM10, and NO2 between 2009 and 2020 were combined in different composite air pollution scores to estimate each participant's exposure at the residential place one to 3 years before dialysis initiation. Adjusted cause-specific Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) per interquartile range (IQR) greater air pollution score. Effect measure modification was assessed for age, sex, dialysis care model, and baseline comorbidities. Results Higher levels of the main air pollution score were associated with a greater rate of all-cause deaths (HR, 1.082 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.057-1.104] per IQR increase), regardless of the exposure lag. This association was also confirmed in cause-specific analyses, most markedly for infectious mortality (HR, 1.686 [95% CI, 1.470-1.933]). Sensitivity analyses with alternative composite air pollution scores showed consistent findings. Subgroup analyses revealed a significantly stronger association among women and fewer comorbid patients. Discussion Long-term multiple air pollutant exposure is associated with all-cause and cause-specific mortality among patients receiving maintenance dialysis, suggesting that air pollution may be a significant contributor to the increasing trend of CKD-attributable mortality worldwide.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aghiles Hamroun
- Service de Santé Publique, Epidémiologie, Economie de la Santé et Prévention, CHU de Lille, Lille, France
- UMR1167 RID-AGE, Institut Pasteur de Lille, INSERM, Université de Lille, CHU Lille, Lille, France
| | - Michaël Génin
- ULR 2694 - METRICS: Évaluation des Technologies de Santé et des Pratiques Médicales, Université de Lille, CHU Lille, Lille, France
| | | | - Bénédicte Sautenet
- Service de Néphrologie-Hypertension Artérielle, Dialyses, Transplantation Rénale, CHRU de Tours, Tours, France
- Department of Nephrology, Université de Tours, Tours, France
- INI-CRCT, Vandœuvre-lès-Nancy, France
- INSERM U1246 SPHERE, Université de Tours-Université de Nantes, Tours, France
| | - Karen Leffondré
- INSERM, Bordeaux Population Health Research Center, Université de Bordeaux, Bordeaux, France
| | - Antoine De Courrèges
- Service de Santé Publique, Epidémiologie, Economie de la Santé et Prévention, CHU de Lille, Lille, France
| | - Luc Dauchet
- Service de Santé Publique, Epidémiologie, Economie de la Santé et Prévention, CHU de Lille, Lille, France
- UMR1167 RID-AGE, Institut Pasteur de Lille, INSERM, Université de Lille, CHU Lille, Lille, France
| | - Victoria Gauthier
- Service de Santé Publique, Epidémiologie, Economie de la Santé et Prévention, CHU de Lille, Lille, France
- UMR1167 RID-AGE, Institut Pasteur de Lille, INSERM, Université de Lille, CHU Lille, Lille, France
| | - Florian Bayer
- Coordination Nationale Registre REIN, Agence de la Biomédecine, Saint-Denis, France
| | - Mathilde Lassalle
- Coordination Nationale Registre REIN, Agence de la Biomédecine, Saint-Denis, France
| | - Cécile Couchoud
- Coordination Nationale Registre REIN, Agence de la Biomédecine, Saint-Denis, France
| | - Philippe Amouyel
- Service de Santé Publique, Epidémiologie, Economie de la Santé et Prévention, CHU de Lille, Lille, France
- UMR1167 RID-AGE, Institut Pasteur de Lille, INSERM, Université de Lille, CHU Lille, Lille, France
| | - Florent Occelli
- IMT Lille Douai, JUNIA, ULR LGCgE, Laboratoire de Génie Civil et Géo-Environnement, Université de Lille, Université de Artois, Lille, France
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Bussalleu A, Hoek G, Kloog I, Probst-Hensch N, Röösli M, de Hoogh K. Modelling Europe-wide fine resolution daily ambient temperature for 2003-2020 using machine learning. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 928:172454. [PMID: 38636867 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.172454] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/20/2023] [Revised: 04/04/2024] [Accepted: 04/11/2024] [Indexed: 04/20/2024]
Abstract
To improve our understanding of the health impacts of high and low temperatures, epidemiological studies require spatiotemporally resolved ambient temperature (Ta) surfaces. Exposure assessment over various European cities for multi-cohort studies requires high resolution and harmonized exposures over larger spatiotemporal extents. Our aim was to develop daily mean, minimum and maximum ambient temperature surfaces with a 1 × 1 km resolution for Europe for the 2003-2020 period. We used a two-stage random forest modelling approach. Random forest was used to (1) impute missing satellite derived Land Surface Temperature (LST) using vegetation and weather variables and to (2) use the gap-filled LST together with land use and meteorological variables to model spatial and temporal variation in Ta measured at weather stations. To assess performance, we validated these models using random and block validation. In addition to global performance, and to assess model stability, we reported model performance at a higher granularity (local). Globally, our models explained on average more than 81 % and 93 % of the variability in the block validation sets for LST and Ta respectively. Average RMSE was 1.3, 1.9 and 1.7 °C for mean, min and max ambient temperature respectively, indicating a generally good performance. For Ta models, local performance was stable across most of the spatiotemporal extent, but showed lower performance in areas with low observation density. Overall, model stability and performance were lower when using block validation compared to random validation. The presented models will facilitate harmonized high-resolution exposure assignment for multi-cohort studies at a European scale.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alonso Bussalleu
- Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Allschwil, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland.
| | - Gerard Hoek
- Division of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | - Itai Kloog
- Department of Geography and Environmental Development, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beer-Sheva, Israel
| | - Nicole Probst-Hensch
- Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Allschwil, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Martin Röösli
- Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Allschwil, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Kees de Hoogh
- Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Allschwil, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
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Marsal A, Sauvain JJ, Thomas A, Lyon-Caen S, Borlaza LJS, Philippat C, Jaffrezo JL, Boudier A, Darfeuil S, Elazzouzi R, Lepeule J, Chartier R, Bayat S, Slama R, Siroux V, Uzu G. Effects of personal exposure to the oxidative potential of PM 2.5 on oxidative stress biomarkers in pregnant women. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 911:168475. [PMID: 37951259 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168475] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/29/2023] [Revised: 10/30/2023] [Accepted: 11/08/2023] [Indexed: 11/13/2023]
Abstract
Oxidative stress is a prominent pathway for the health effects associated with fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure. Oxidative potential (OP) of PM has been associated to several health endpoints, but studies on its impact on biomarkers of oxidative stress remains insufficient. 300 pregnant women from the SEPAGES cohort (France) carried personal PM2.5 samplers for a week and OP was measured using ascorbic acid (AA) and dithiothreitol (DTT) assays, and normalized by 1) PM2.5 mass (OPm) and 2) sampled air volume (OPv). A pool of three urine spots collected on the 7th day of PM sampling was analyzed for biomarkers, namely 8-hydroxy-2-deoxyguanosine (8-OHdG), malondialdehyde (MDA) and 8-isoprostaglandin-F2α (8-isoPGF2α). Associations were investigated using adjusted multiple linear regressions. OP effects were additionally investigated by stratifying by median PM2.5 concentration (14 μg m-3). In the main models, no association was observed with 8-isoPGF2α, nor MDA. An interquartile range (IQR) increase in OPmAA exposure was associated with increased 8-OHdG (percent change: 6.2 %; 95 % CI: 0.2 % to 12.6 %). In the stratified analysis, exposure to OPmAA was associated with 8-OHdG for participants exposed to low levels of PM2.5 (percent change: 11.4 %; 95 % CI: 3.3 % to 20.1 %), but not for those exposed to high levels (percent change: -1.0 %; 95 % CI: -10.6 % to 9.6 %). Associations for OPmDTT also followed a similar pattern (p-values for OPmAA-PM and OPmDTT-PM interaction terms were 0.12 and 0.11, respectively). Overall, our findings suggest that OPmAA may be associated with increased DNA oxidative damage. This association was not observed with PM2.5 mass concentration exposure. The effects of OPmAA in 8-OHdG tended to be stronger at lower (below median) vs. higher concentrations of PM2.5. Further epidemiological, toxicological and aerosol research are needed to further investigate the OPmAA effects on 8-OHdG and the potential modifying effect of PM mass concentration on this association.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anouk Marsal
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, INRAE, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France; Agence de l'environnement et de la Maîtrise de l'Energie, 20, avenue du Grésillé, BP 90406 49004 Angers Cedex 01, France
| | - Jean-Jacques Sauvain
- Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, Center for Primary Care and Public Health (Unisanté), University Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Aurélien Thomas
- Faculty Unit of Toxicology, CURML, Faculty of Biology and Medicine, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland; Unit of Forensic Toxicology and Chemistry, CURML, Lausanne and Geneva University Hospitals, Lausanne, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Sarah Lyon-Caen
- University Grenoble Alpes, Inserm U 1209, CNRS UMR 5309, Team of Environmental Epidemiology Applied to the Development and Respiratory Health, Institute for Advanced Biosciences, 38000 Grenoble, France
| | | | - Claire Philippat
- University Grenoble Alpes, Inserm U 1209, CNRS UMR 5309, Team of Environmental Epidemiology Applied to the Development and Respiratory Health, Institute for Advanced Biosciences, 38000 Grenoble, France
| | - Jean-Luc Jaffrezo
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, INRAE, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
| | - Anne Boudier
- University Grenoble Alpes, Inserm U 1209, CNRS UMR 5309, Team of Environmental Epidemiology Applied to the Development and Respiratory Health, Institute for Advanced Biosciences, 38000 Grenoble, France; Pediatric Department, CHU Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble, France
| | - Sophie Darfeuil
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, INRAE, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
| | - Rhabira Elazzouzi
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, INRAE, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
| | - Johanna Lepeule
- University Grenoble Alpes, Inserm U 1209, CNRS UMR 5309, Team of Environmental Epidemiology Applied to the Development and Respiratory Health, Institute for Advanced Biosciences, 38000 Grenoble, France
| | | | - Sam Bayat
- Department of Pulmonology and Physiology, CHU Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble, France; Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Inserm UA07 STROBE Laboratory, Grenoble, France
| | - Rémy Slama
- University Grenoble Alpes, Inserm U 1209, CNRS UMR 5309, Team of Environmental Epidemiology Applied to the Development and Respiratory Health, Institute for Advanced Biosciences, 38000 Grenoble, France
| | - Valérie Siroux
- University Grenoble Alpes, Inserm U 1209, CNRS UMR 5309, Team of Environmental Epidemiology Applied to the Development and Respiratory Health, Institute for Advanced Biosciences, 38000 Grenoble, France
| | - Gaëlle Uzu
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, INRAE, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France.
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Kloog I, Zhang X. Methods to Advance Climate Science in Respiratory Health: Satellite-Based Environmental Modeling for Temperature Exposure Assessment in Epidemiological Studies. Immunol Allergy Clin North Am 2024; 44:97-107. [PMID: 37973263 DOI: 10.1016/j.iac.2023.07.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/19/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is a major concern with significant impacts on human health including respiratory outcomes, particularly through changes in air temperature. The rise in global temperature has led to an increase in heat waves and extreme weather events, which pose serious risks to respiratory health. Accurately assessing the effects of air temperature on respiratory health requires a comprehensive approach that incorporates fine-scale exposure assessment to characterize the geospatial environment impacting population health. Recent advances in open-source earth observation data have allowed for improved exposure assessment through temperature modeling.
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Affiliation(s)
- Itai Kloog
- Department of Environmental Medicine and Public Health, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA; Department of Geography and Environmental Development, Ben-Gurion University, Beer Sheva, Israel; Institute for Exposomic Research, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA
| | - Xueying Zhang
- Department of Environmental Medicine and Public Health, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA; Institute for Exposomic Research, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA; Department of Pediatrics, The Kravis Children's Hospital, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA.
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Adélaïde L, Hough I, Seyve E, Kloog I, Fifre G, Launoy G, Launay L, Pascal M, Lepeule J. Environmental and social inequities in continental France: an analysis of exposure to heat, air pollution, and lack of vegetation. JOURNAL OF EXPOSURE SCIENCE & ENVIRONMENTAL EPIDEMIOLOGY 2024:10.1038/s41370-024-00641-6. [PMID: 38279031 DOI: 10.1038/s41370-024-00641-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/05/2023] [Revised: 01/10/2024] [Accepted: 01/12/2024] [Indexed: 01/28/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Cumulative environmental exposures and social deprivation increase health vulnerability and limit the capacity of populations to adapt to climate change. OBJECTIVE Our study aimed at providing a fine-scale characterization of exposure to heat, air pollution, and lack of vegetation in continental France between 2000 and 2018, describing spatiotemporal trends and environmental hotspots (i.e., areas that cumulate the highest levels of overexposure), and exploring any associations with social deprivation. METHODS The European (EDI) and French (FDep) social deprivation indices, the normalized difference vegetation index, daily ambient temperatures, particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10), nitrogen dioxide, and ozone (O3) concentrations were estimated for 48,185 French census districts. Reference values were chosen to characterize (over-)exposure. Hotspots were defined as the areas cumulating the highest overexposure to temperature, air pollution, and lack of vegetation. Associations between heat overexposure or hotspots and social deprivation were assessed using logistic regressions. RESULTS Overexposure to heat was higher in 2015-2018 compared with 2000-2014. Exposure to all air pollutants except for O3 decreased during the study period. In 2018, more than 79% of the urban census districts exceeded the 2021 WHO air quality guidelines. The evolution of vegetation density between 2000 and 2018 was heterogeneous across continental France. In urban areas, the most deprived census districts were at a higher risk of being hotspots (odds ratio (OR): 10.86, 95% CI: 9.87-11.98 using EDI and OR: 1.07, 95% CI: 1.04-1.11 using FDep). IMPACT STATEMENT We studied cumulative environmental exposures and social deprivation in French census districts. The 2015-2018 period showed the highest overexposure to heat between 2000 and 2018. In 2018, the air quality did not meet the 2021 WHO guidelines in most census districts and 8.6 million people lived in environmental hotspots. Highly socially deprived urban areas had a higher risk of being in a hotspot. This study proposes for the first time, a methodology to identify hotspots of exposure to heat, air pollution, and lack of vegetation and their associations with social deprivation at a national level.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lucie Adélaïde
- Santé publique France, 12 rue du Val d'Osne, 94415, Saint-Maurice Cedex, France.
- Université Grenoble Alpes, Inserm, CNRS, IAB, Site Santé, Allée des Alpes, 38700, La Tronche, France.
| | - Ian Hough
- Université Grenoble Alpes, Inserm, CNRS, IAB, Site Santé, Allée des Alpes, 38700, La Tronche, France
- Department of Geography and Environmental Development, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Be'er Sheva, Israel
| | - Emie Seyve
- Université Grenoble Alpes, Inserm, CNRS, IAB, Site Santé, Allée des Alpes, 38700, La Tronche, France
- Université de Paris Cité, Inserm, INRAE, Centre of Research in Epidemiology and StatisticS (CRESS), 75000, Paris, France
| | - Itai Kloog
- Department of Geography and Environmental Development, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Be'er Sheva, Israel
- Department of Environmental Medicine and Public Health, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA
| | - Grégory Fifre
- Météo-France, 73 avenue de Paris, 94165, Saint-Mandé Cedex, France
| | - Guy Launoy
- U1086 Inserm Anticipe, Avenue Général Harris, 14076, Caen Cedex, France
- University Hospital of Caen, 14076, Caen Cedex, France
| | - Ludivine Launay
- U1086 Inserm Anticipe, Avenue Général Harris, 14076, Caen Cedex, France
- Plateforme MapInMed, US PLATON, Avenue Général Harris, 14076, Caen Cedex, France
- Centre François Baclesse, Avenue Général Harris, 14076, Caen Cedex, France
| | - Mathilde Pascal
- Santé publique France, 12 rue du Val d'Osne, 94415, Saint-Maurice Cedex, France
| | - Johanna Lepeule
- Université Grenoble Alpes, Inserm, CNRS, IAB, Site Santé, Allée des Alpes, 38700, La Tronche, France.
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Nikolaou N, Bouwer LM, Dallavalle M, Valizadeh M, Stafoggia M, Peters A, Wolf K, Schneider A. Improved daily estimates of relative humidity at high resolution across Germany: A random forest approach. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2023; 238:117173. [PMID: 37734577 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2023.117173] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/08/2023] [Revised: 09/01/2023] [Accepted: 09/17/2023] [Indexed: 09/23/2023]
Abstract
The lack of readily available methods for estimating high-resolution near-surface relative humidity (RH) and the incapability of weather stations to fully capture the spatiotemporal variability can lead to exposure misclassification in studies of environmental epidemiology. We therefore aimed to predict German-wide 1 × 1 km daily mean RH during 2000-2021. RH observations, longitude and latitude, modelled air temperature, precipitation and wind speed as well as remote sensing information on topographic elevation, vegetation, and the true color band composite were incorporated in a Random Forest (RF) model, in addition to date for capturing the temporal variations of the response-explanatory variables relationship. The model achieved high accuracy (R2 = 0.83) and low errors (Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 5.07%, Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 5.19% and Mean Percentage Error (MPE) of - 0.53%), calculated via ten-fold cross-validation. A comparison of our RH predictions with measurements from a dense monitoring network in the city of Augsburg, South Germany confirmed the good performance (R2 ≥ 0.86, RMSE ≤ 5.45%, MAPE ≤ 5.59%, MPE ≤ 3.11%). The model displayed high German-wide RH (22y-average of 79.00%) and high spatial variability across the country, exceeding 12% on yearly averages. Our findings indicate that the proposed RF model is suitable for estimating RH for a whole country in high-resolution and provide a reliable RH dataset for epidemiological analyses and other environmental research purposes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nikolaos Nikolaou
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany; Institute for Medical Information Processing, Biometry and Epidemiology (IBE), Faculty of Medicine, LMU Munich, Pettenkofer School of Public Health, Munich, Germany.
| | - Laurens M Bouwer
- Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Hamburg, Germany.
| | - Marco Dallavalle
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany; Institute for Medical Information Processing, Biometry and Epidemiology (IBE), Faculty of Medicine, LMU Munich, Pettenkofer School of Public Health, Munich, Germany.
| | - Mahyar Valizadeh
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany.
| | - Massimo Stafoggia
- Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service - ASL Roma 1, Rome, Italy.
| | - Annette Peters
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany; Institute for Medical Information Processing, Biometry and Epidemiology (IBE), Faculty of Medicine, LMU Munich, Pettenkofer School of Public Health, Munich, Germany.
| | - Kathrin Wolf
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany.
| | - Alexandra Schneider
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany.
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9
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Sarafian R, Kloog I, Rosenblatt JD. Optimal-design domain-adaptation for exposure prediction in two-stage epidemiological studies. JOURNAL OF EXPOSURE SCIENCE & ENVIRONMENTAL EPIDEMIOLOGY 2023; 33:963-970. [PMID: 35459930 DOI: 10.1038/s41370-022-00438-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/14/2021] [Revised: 03/28/2022] [Accepted: 03/29/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND In the first stage of a two-stage study, the researcher uses a statistical model to impute the unobserved exposures. In the second stage, imputed exposures serve as covariates in epidemiological models. Imputation error in the first stage operate as measurement errors in the second stage, and thus bias exposure effect estimates. OBJECTIVE This study aims to improve the estimation of exposure effects by sharing information between the first and second stages. METHODS At the heart of our estimator is the observation that not all second-stage observations are equally important to impute. We thus borrow ideas from the optimal-experimental-design theory, to identify individuals of higher importance. We then improve the imputation of these individuals using ideas from the machine-learning literature of domain adaptation. RESULTS Our simulations confirm that the exposure effect estimates are more accurate than the current best practice. An empirical demonstration yields smaller estimates of PM effect on hyperglycemia risk, with tighter confidence bands. SIGNIFICANCE Sharing information between environmental scientist and epidemiologist improves health effect estimates. Our estimator is a principled approach for harnessing this information exchange, and may be applied to any two stage study.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ron Sarafian
- Department of Industrial Engineering, Ben Gurion University of the Negev, Be'er Sheva, Israel.
| | - Itai Kloog
- Department of Geography and Environmental Development, Ben Gurion University of the Negev, Be'er Sheva, Israel
| | - Jonathan D Rosenblatt
- Department of Industrial Engineering, Ben Gurion University of the Negev, Be'er Sheva, Israel
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10
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Ragettli MS, Saucy A, Flückiger B, Vienneau D, de Hoogh K, Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Schindler C, Röösli M. Explorative Assessment of the Temperature-Mortality Association to Support Health-Based Heat-Warning Thresholds: A National Case-Crossover Study in Switzerland. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2023; 20:4958. [PMID: 36981871 PMCID: PMC10049426 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph20064958] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/16/2023] [Revised: 02/24/2023] [Accepted: 03/07/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Defining health-based thresholds for effective heat warnings is crucial for climate change adaptation strategies. Translating the non-linear function between heat and health effects into an effective threshold for heat warnings to protect the population is a challenge. We present a systematic analysis of heat indicators in relation to mortality. We applied distributed lag non-linear models in an individual-level case-crossover design to assess the effects of heat on mortality in Switzerland during the warm season from 2003 to 2016 for three temperature metrics (daily mean, maximum, and minimum temperature), and various threshold temperatures and heatwave definitions. Individual death records with information on residential address from the Swiss National Cohort were linked to high-resolution temperature estimates from 100 m resolution maps. Moderate (90th percentile) to extreme thresholds (99.5th percentile) of the three temperature metrics implied a significant increase in mortality (5 to 38%) in respect of the median warm-season temperature. Effects of the threshold temperatures on mortality were similar across the seven major regions in Switzerland. Heatwave duration did not modify the effect when considering delayed effects up to 7 days. This nationally representative study, accounting for small-scale exposure variability, suggests that the national heat-warning system should focus on heatwave intensity rather than duration. While a different heat-warning indicator may be appropriate in other countries, our evaluation framework is transferable to any country.
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Affiliation(s)
- Martina S. Ragettli
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (SwissTPH), 4123 Allschwil, Switzerland
- University of Basel, 4001 Basel, Switzerland
| | - Apolline Saucy
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (SwissTPH), 4123 Allschwil, Switzerland
- University of Basel, 4001 Basel, Switzerland
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), 08003 Barcelona, Spain
| | - Benjamin Flückiger
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (SwissTPH), 4123 Allschwil, Switzerland
- University of Basel, 4001 Basel, Switzerland
| | - Danielle Vienneau
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (SwissTPH), 4123 Allschwil, Switzerland
- University of Basel, 4001 Basel, Switzerland
| | - Kees de Hoogh
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (SwissTPH), 4123 Allschwil, Switzerland
- University of Basel, 4001 Basel, Switzerland
| | - Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research (OCCR), University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
| | - Christian Schindler
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (SwissTPH), 4123 Allschwil, Switzerland
- University of Basel, 4001 Basel, Switzerland
| | - Martin Röösli
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (SwissTPH), 4123 Allschwil, Switzerland
- University of Basel, 4001 Basel, Switzerland
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11
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Guilbert A, Hough I, Seyve E, Rolland M, Quentin J, Slama R, Lyon-Caen S, Kloog I, Bayat S, Siroux V, Lepeule J. Association of Prenatal and Postnatal Exposures to Warm or Cold Air Temperatures With Lung Function in Young Infants. JAMA Netw Open 2023; 6:e233376. [PMID: 36930155 PMCID: PMC10024202 DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2023.3376] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/18/2023] Open
Abstract
IMPORTANCE Little is known about long-term associations of early-life exposure to extreme temperatures with child health and lung function. OBJECTIVES To investigate the association of prenatal and postnatal heat or cold exposure with newborn lung function and identify windows of susceptibility. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This population-based cohort study (SEPAGES) recruited pregnant women in France between July 8, 2014, and July 24, 2017. Data on temperature exposure, lung function, and covariates were available from 343 mother-child dyads. Data analysis was performed from January 1, 2021, to December 31, 2021. EXPOSURES Mean, SD, minimum, and maximum temperatures at the mother-child's residence, estimated using a state-of-the-art spatiotemporally resolved model. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Outcome measures were tidal breathing analysis and nitrogen multiple-breath washout test measured at 2 months of age. Adjusted associations between both long-term (35 gestational weeks and first 4 weeks after delivery) and short-term (7 days before lung function test) exposure to ambient temperature and newborn lung function were analyzed using distributed lag nonlinear models. RESULTS A total of 343 mother-child pairs were included in the analyses (median [IQR] maternal age at conception, 32 [30.0-35.2] years; 183 [53%] male newborns). A total of 246 mothers and/or fathers (72%) held at least a master's degree. Among the 160 female newborns (47%), long-term heat exposure (95th vs 50th percentile of mean temperature) was associated with decreased functional residual capacity (-39.7 mL; 95% CI, -68.6 to -10.7 mL for 24 °C vs 12 °C at gestational weeks 20-35 and weeks 0-4 after delivery) and increased respiratory rate (28.0/min; 95% CI, 4.2-51.9/min for 24 °C vs 12 °C at gestational weeks 14-35 and weeks 0-1 after delivery). Long-term cold exposure (5th vs 50th percentile of mean temperature) was associated with lower functional residual capacity (-21.9 mL; 95% CI, -42.4 to -1.3 mL for 1 °C vs 12 °C at gestational weeks 15-29), lower tidal volume (-23.8 mL; 95% CI, -43.1 to -4.4 mL for 1 °C vs 12 °C at gestational weeks 14-35 and weeks 0-4 after delivery), and increased respiratory rate (45.5/min; 95% CI, 10.1-81.0/min for 1 °C vs 12 °C at gestational weeks 6-35 and weeks 0-1 after delivery) in female newborns as well. No consistent association was observed for male newborns or short-term exposure to cold or heat. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this cohort study, long-term heat and cold exposure from the second trimester until 4 weeks after birth was associated with newborn lung volumes, especially among female newborns.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ariane Guilbert
- Team of Environmental Epidemiology Applied to Development and Respiratory Health, Institute for Advanced Biosciences, Université Grenoble Alpes, INSERM, CNRS, La Tronche, France
| | - Ian Hough
- Team of Environmental Epidemiology Applied to Development and Respiratory Health, Institute for Advanced Biosciences, Université Grenoble Alpes, INSERM, CNRS, La Tronche, France
- Institute of Environmental Geosciences, Université Grenoble Alpes, Saint Martin D’Hères, France
| | - Emie Seyve
- Team of Environmental Epidemiology Applied to Development and Respiratory Health, Institute for Advanced Biosciences, Université Grenoble Alpes, INSERM, CNRS, La Tronche, France
- Université de Paris Cité, INSERM, INRAE, Center of Research in Epidemiology and Statistics, Paris, France
| | - Matthieu Rolland
- Team of Environmental Epidemiology Applied to Development and Respiratory Health, Institute for Advanced Biosciences, Université Grenoble Alpes, INSERM, CNRS, La Tronche, France
| | - Joane Quentin
- Team of Environmental Epidemiology Applied to Development and Respiratory Health, Institute for Advanced Biosciences, Université Grenoble Alpes, INSERM, CNRS, La Tronche, France
- Pediatric Department, Grenoble Alpes University Hospital, La Tronche, France
| | - Rémy Slama
- Team of Environmental Epidemiology Applied to Development and Respiratory Health, Institute for Advanced Biosciences, Université Grenoble Alpes, INSERM, CNRS, La Tronche, France
| | - Sarah Lyon-Caen
- Team of Environmental Epidemiology Applied to Development and Respiratory Health, Institute for Advanced Biosciences, Université Grenoble Alpes, INSERM, CNRS, La Tronche, France
| | - Itai Kloog
- Department of Geography and Environmental Development, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Be’er Sheva, Israel
| | - Sam Bayat
- Lung Function Laboratory, Grenoble Alpes University Hospital, La Tronche, France
| | - Valérie Siroux
- Team of Environmental Epidemiology Applied to Development and Respiratory Health, Institute for Advanced Biosciences, Université Grenoble Alpes, INSERM, CNRS, La Tronche, France
| | - Johanna Lepeule
- Team of Environmental Epidemiology Applied to Development and Respiratory Health, Institute for Advanced Biosciences, Université Grenoble Alpes, INSERM, CNRS, La Tronche, France
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12
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Nikolaou N, Dallavalle M, Stafoggia M, Bouwer LM, Peters A, Chen K, Wolf K, Schneider A. High-resolution spatiotemporal modeling of daily near-surface air temperature in Germany over the period 2000-2020. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2023; 219:115062. [PMID: 36535393 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.115062] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/03/2022] [Revised: 12/09/2022] [Accepted: 12/12/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
The commonly used weather stations cannot fully capture the spatiotemporal variability of near-surface air temperature (Tair), leading to exposure misclassification and biased health effect estimates. We aimed to improve the spatiotemporal coverage of Tair data in Germany by using multi-stage modeling to estimate daily 1 × 1 km minimum (Tmin), mean (Tmean), maximum (Tmax) Tair and diurnal Tair range during 2000-2020. We used weather station Tair observations, satellite-based land surface temperature (LST), elevation, vegetation and various land use predictors. In the first stage, we built a linear mixed model with daily random intercepts and slopes for LST adjusted for several spatial predictors to estimate Tair from cells with both Tair and LST available. In the second stage, we used this model to predict Tair for cells with only LST available. In the third stage, we regressed the second stage predictions against interpolated Tair values to obtain Tair countrywide. All models achieved high accuracy (0.91 ≤ R2 ≤ 0.98) and low errors (1.03 °C ≤ Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) ≤ 2.02 °C). Validation with external data confirmed the good performance, locally, i.e., in Augsburg for all models (0.74 ≤ R2 ≤ 0.99, 0.87 °C ≤ RMSE ≤ 2.05 °C) and countrywide, for the Tmean model (0.71 ≤ R2 ≤ 0.99, 0.79 °C ≤ RMSE ≤ 1.19 °C). Annual Tmean averages ranged from 8.56 °C to 10.42 °C with the years beyond 2016 being constantly hotter than the 21-year average. The spatial variability within Germany exceeded 15 °C annually on average following patterns including mountains, rivers and urbanization. Using a case study, we showed that modeling leads to broader Tair variability representation for exposure assessment of participants in health cohorts. Our results indicate the proposed models as suitable for estimating nationwide Tair at high resolution. Our product is critical for temperature-based epidemiological studies and is also available for other research purposes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nikolaos Nikolaou
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany; Institute for Medical Information Processing, Biometry, and Epidemiology, Pettenkofer School of Public Health, LMU Munich, Munich, Germany.
| | - Marco Dallavalle
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany; Institute for Medical Information Processing, Biometry, and Epidemiology, Pettenkofer School of Public Health, LMU Munich, Munich, Germany
| | - Massimo Stafoggia
- Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy
| | - Laurens M Bouwer
- Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Annette Peters
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany; Institute for Medical Information Processing, Biometry, and Epidemiology, Pettenkofer School of Public Health, LMU Munich, Munich, Germany
| | - Kai Chen
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA; Yale Center on Climate Change and Health, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Kathrin Wolf
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Alexandra Schneider
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
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13
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Marsal A, Slama R, Lyon-Caen S, Borlaza LJS, Jaffrezo JL, Boudier A, Darfeuil S, Elazzouzi R, Gioria Y, Lepeule J, Chartier R, Pin I, Quentin J, Bayat S, Uzu G, Siroux V. Prenatal Exposure to PM2.5 Oxidative Potential and Lung Function in Infants and Preschool- Age Children: A Prospective Study. ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES 2023; 131:17004. [PMID: 36695591 PMCID: PMC9875724 DOI: 10.1289/ehp11155] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/23/2022] [Revised: 11/29/2022] [Accepted: 12/20/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) has been found to be detrimental to respiratory health of children, but few studies have examined the effects of prenatal PM 2.5 oxidative potential (OP) on lung function in infants and preschool children. OBJECTIVES We estimated the associations of personal exposure to PM 2.5 and OP during pregnancy on offspring objective lung function parameters and compared the strengths of associations between both exposure metrics. METHODS We used data from 356 mother-child pairs from the SEPAGES cohort. PM filters collected twice during a week were analyzed for OP, using the dithiothreitol (DTT) and the ascorbic acid (AA) assays, quantifying the exposure of each pregnant woman. Lung function was assessed with tidal breathing analysis (TBFVL) and nitrogen multiple-breath washout (N 2 MBW ) test, performed at 6 wk, and airwave oscillometry (AOS) performed at 3 y. Associations of prenatal PM 2.5 mass and OP with lung function parameters were estimated using multiple linear regressions. RESULTS In neonates, an interquartile (IQR) increase in OP v DTT (0.89 nmol / min / m 3 ) was associated with a decrease in functional residual capacity (FRC) measured by N 2 MBW [β = - 2.26 mL ; 95% confidence interval (CI): - 4.68 , 0.15]. Associations with PM 2.5 showed similar patterns in comparison with OP v DTT but of smaller magnitude. Lung clearance index (LCI) and TBFVL parameters did not show any clear association with the exposures considered. At 3 y, increased frequency-dependent resistance of the lungs (Rrs 7 - 19 ) from AOS tended to be associated with higher OP v DTT (β = 0.09 hPa × s / L ; 95% CI: - 0.06 , 0.24) and OP v AA (IQR = 1.14 nmol / min / m 3 ; β = 0.12 hPa × s / L ; 95% CI: - 0.04 , 0.27) but not with PM 2.5 (IQR = 6.9 μ g / m 3 ; β = 0.02 hPa × s / L ; 95% CI: - 0.13 , 0.16). Results for FRC and Rrs 7 - 19 remained similar in OP models adjusted on PM 2.5 . DISCUSSION Prenatal exposure to OP v DTT was associated with several offspring lung function parameters over time, all related to lung volumes. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11155.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anouk Marsal
- Université Grenoble Alpes, Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), INRAE, IRD, INP-G, IGE (UMR 5001), Grenoble, France
- Agence de l’environnement et de la Maîtrise de l’Energie, Angers, France
| | - Rémy Slama
- Team of Environmental Epidemiology Applied to the Development and Respiratory Health, Institute for Advanced Biosciences, Inserm U 1209, CNRS UMR 5309, Université Grenoble Alpes, 38000 Grenoble, France
| | - Sarah Lyon-Caen
- Team of Environmental Epidemiology Applied to the Development and Respiratory Health, Institute for Advanced Biosciences, Inserm U 1209, CNRS UMR 5309, Université Grenoble Alpes, 38000 Grenoble, France
| | - Lucille Joanna S. Borlaza
- Université Grenoble Alpes, Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), INRAE, IRD, INP-G, IGE (UMR 5001), Grenoble, France
| | - Jean-Luc Jaffrezo
- Université Grenoble Alpes, Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), INRAE, IRD, INP-G, IGE (UMR 5001), Grenoble, France
| | - Anne Boudier
- Team of Environmental Epidemiology Applied to the Development and Respiratory Health, Institute for Advanced Biosciences, Inserm U 1209, CNRS UMR 5309, Université Grenoble Alpes, 38000 Grenoble, France
- Pediatric Department, CHU Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble, France
| | - Sophie Darfeuil
- Université Grenoble Alpes, Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), INRAE, IRD, INP-G, IGE (UMR 5001), Grenoble, France
| | - Rhabira Elazzouzi
- Université Grenoble Alpes, Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), INRAE, IRD, INP-G, IGE (UMR 5001), Grenoble, France
| | - Yoann Gioria
- Team of Environmental Epidemiology Applied to the Development and Respiratory Health, Institute for Advanced Biosciences, Inserm U 1209, CNRS UMR 5309, Université Grenoble Alpes, 38000 Grenoble, France
| | - Johanna Lepeule
- Team of Environmental Epidemiology Applied to the Development and Respiratory Health, Institute for Advanced Biosciences, Inserm U 1209, CNRS UMR 5309, Université Grenoble Alpes, 38000 Grenoble, France
| | - Ryan Chartier
- RTI International, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, USA
| | - Isabelle Pin
- Team of Environmental Epidemiology Applied to the Development and Respiratory Health, Institute for Advanced Biosciences, Inserm U 1209, CNRS UMR 5309, Université Grenoble Alpes, 38000 Grenoble, France
- Pediatric Department, CHU Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble, France
| | - Joane Quentin
- Team of Environmental Epidemiology Applied to the Development and Respiratory Health, Institute for Advanced Biosciences, Inserm U 1209, CNRS UMR 5309, Université Grenoble Alpes, 38000 Grenoble, France
- Department of Pulmonology and Physiology, CHU Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble, France
| | - Sam Bayat
- Department of Pulmonology and Physiology, CHU Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble, France
- Université Grenoble Alpes, Inserm UA07 STOBE Laboratory, Grenoble, France
| | - Gaëlle Uzu
- Université Grenoble Alpes, Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), INRAE, IRD, INP-G, IGE (UMR 5001), Grenoble, France
| | - Valérie Siroux
- Team of Environmental Epidemiology Applied to the Development and Respiratory Health, Institute for Advanced Biosciences, Inserm U 1209, CNRS UMR 5309, Université Grenoble Alpes, 38000 Grenoble, France
| | - the SEPAGES cohort study group
- Université Grenoble Alpes, Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), INRAE, IRD, INP-G, IGE (UMR 5001), Grenoble, France
- Team of Environmental Epidemiology Applied to the Development and Respiratory Health, Institute for Advanced Biosciences, Inserm U 1209, CNRS UMR 5309, Université Grenoble Alpes, 38000 Grenoble, France
- Pediatric Department, CHU Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble, France
- Department of Pulmonology and Physiology, CHU Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble, France
- Université Grenoble Alpes, Inserm UA07 STOBE Laboratory, Grenoble, France
- RTI International, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, USA
- Agence de l’environnement et de la Maîtrise de l’Energie, Angers, France
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14
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Hough I, Rolland M, Guilbert A, Seyve E, Heude B, Slama R, Lyon-Caen S, Pin I, Chevrier C, Kloog I, Lepeule J. Early delivery following chronic and acute ambient temperature exposure: a comprehensive survival approach. Int J Epidemiol 2022:6765151. [DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyac190] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/07/2022] [Accepted: 09/16/2022] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
Abstract
Abstract
Background
Ambient temperature, particularly heat, is increasingly acknowledged as a trigger for preterm delivery but study designs have been limited and results mixed. We aimed to comprehensively evaluate the association between ambient temperature throughout pregnancy and preterm delivery.
Methods
We estimated daily temperature throughout pregnancy using a cutting-edge spatiotemporal model for 5347 live singleton births from three prospective cohorts in France, 2002–2018. We performed Cox regression (survival analysis) with distributed lags to evaluate time-varying associations with preterm birth simultaneously controlling for exposure during the first 26 weeks and last 30 days of pregnancy. We examined weekly mean, daytime, night-time and variability of temperature, and heatwaves accounting for adaptation to location and season.
Results
Preterm birth risk was higher following cold (5th vs 50th percentile of mean temperature) 7–9 weeks after conception [relative risk (RR): 1.3, 95% CI: 1.0–1.6 for 2°C vs 11.6°C] and 10–4 days before delivery (RR: 1.6, 95% CI: 1.1–2.1 for 1.2°C vs 12.1°C). Night-time heat (95th vs 50th percentile of minimum temperature; 15.7°C vs 7.4°C) increased risk when exposure occurred within 5 weeks of conception (RR: 2.0, 95% CI: 1.05–3.8) or 20–26 weeks after conception (RR: 2.9, 95% CI: 1.2–6.8). Overall and daytime heat (high mean and maximum temperature) showed consistent effects. We found no clear associations with temperature variability or heatwave indicators, suggesting they may be less relevant for preterm birth.
Conclusions
In a temperate climate, night-time heat and chronic and acute cold exposures were associated with increased risk of preterm birth. These results suggest night-time heat as a relevant indicator. In the context of rising temperatures and more frequent weather hazards, these results should inform public health policies to reduce the growing burden of preterm births.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ian Hough
- Université Grenoble Alpes, INSERM, CNRS, Institute for Advanced Biosciences (IAB), Team of Environmental Epidemiology Applied to Development and Respiratory Health , La Tronche, France
- Department of Geography and Environmental Development, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev , Be’er Sheva, Israel
| | - Matthieu Rolland
- Université Grenoble Alpes, INSERM, CNRS, Institute for Advanced Biosciences (IAB), Team of Environmental Epidemiology Applied to Development and Respiratory Health , La Tronche, France
| | - Ariane Guilbert
- Université Grenoble Alpes, INSERM, CNRS, Institute for Advanced Biosciences (IAB), Team of Environmental Epidemiology Applied to Development and Respiratory Health , La Tronche, France
| | - Emie Seyve
- Université Grenoble Alpes, INSERM, CNRS, Institute for Advanced Biosciences (IAB), Team of Environmental Epidemiology Applied to Development and Respiratory Health , La Tronche, France
- Université de Paris Cité, Inserm, INRAE, Centre of Research in Epidemiology and StatisticS (CRESS) , Paris, France
| | - Barbara Heude
- Université de Paris Cité, Inserm, INRAE, Centre of Research in Epidemiology and StatisticS (CRESS) , Paris, France
| | - Rémy Slama
- Université Grenoble Alpes, INSERM, CNRS, Institute for Advanced Biosciences (IAB), Team of Environmental Epidemiology Applied to Development and Respiratory Health , La Tronche, France
| | - Sarah Lyon-Caen
- Université Grenoble Alpes, INSERM, CNRS, Institute for Advanced Biosciences (IAB), Team of Environmental Epidemiology Applied to Development and Respiratory Health , La Tronche, France
| | - Isabelle Pin
- Université Grenoble Alpes, INSERM, CNRS, Institute for Advanced Biosciences (IAB), Team of Environmental Epidemiology Applied to Development and Respiratory Health , La Tronche, France
- Department of Paediatric Pneumology, Grenoble Teaching Hospital , La Tronche, France
| | - Cécile Chevrier
- Université Rennes, INSERM, EHESP, IRSET (Research Institute for Environmental and Occupational Health) , Rennes, France
| | - Itai Kloog
- Department of Geography and Environmental Development, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev , Be’er Sheva, Israel
| | - Johanna Lepeule
- Université Grenoble Alpes, INSERM, CNRS, Institute for Advanced Biosciences (IAB), Team of Environmental Epidemiology Applied to Development and Respiratory Health , La Tronche, France
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15
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Zhang Z, Du Q. Merging framework for estimating daily surface air temperature by integrating observations from multiple polar-orbiting satellites. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2022; 812:152538. [PMID: 34953831 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.152538] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/05/2021] [Revised: 12/12/2021] [Accepted: 12/15/2021] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Reconstructing spatially continuous surface air temperature (SAT) is of great significance to climate and environmental studies. Substantial efforts have been made to estimate daily SAT based on land surface temperature (LST) derived from polar-orbiting satellites. However, previous studies are nearly all limited to estimating daily SAT based on MODIS LST from NASA's Terra or Aqua by applying different statistical learning methods. Various satellites from earth observation missions, particularly the missions for meteorological satellites, are capable of acquiring thermal infrared observations, but its implications for SAT estimation are significantly ignored. In this study, for the first time, we proposed a merging framework for estimating daily mean SAT by integrating LST datasets from multiple polar-orbiting satellites, including Metop-B from EUMETSAT's Polar System (EPS), SNPP and JPSS-1 from NOAA's Joint Polar Satellites System (JPSS), and Terra and Aqua from NASA's EOS. This study is also the first to explore the estimating of daily SAT based on LST derived from the meteorological satellites in EPS and JPSS. The framework integrates 10 estimation models based on different LST from the five satellites and generates daily merged SAT by averaging the daily SAT estimates from the models. Here we show that the framework significantly improves the spatial coverage of daily SAT estimates for cloud-free areas by an overall increase of 39% with respect to the mean coverage of the LST datasets from the five satellites. Daily coverage of the merged SAT from the framework is nearly all above 75% with an average of 91%. Compared to the SAT estimated from MODIS LST, overall increases in the coverage of daily SAT are 37%-51%. Estimation models in the framework all achieved comparable and satisfactory predicative performances with an average RMSE of 1.7-1.9 K for sample-based cross-validation, and 1.9-2.2 K for site-based cross-validation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhenwei Zhang
- School of Resource and Environmental Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China.
| | - Qingyun Du
- School of Resource and Environmental Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China; Key Laboratory of Geographic Information System, Ministry of Education, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China; Key Laboratory of Digital Mapping and Land Information Application Engineering, National Administration of Surveying, Mapping and Geo-Information, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China; Collaborative Innovation Center of Geospatial Technology, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China.
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Jin Z, Ma Y, Chu L, Liu Y, Dubrow R, Chen K. Predicting spatiotemporally-resolved mean air temperature over Sweden from satellite data using an ensemble model. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2022; 204:111960. [PMID: 34464620 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2021.111960] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/19/2021] [Revised: 07/29/2021] [Accepted: 08/23/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Mapping of air temperature (Ta) at high spatiotemporal resolution is critical to reducing exposure assessment errors in epidemiological studies on the health effects of air temperature. In this study, we applied a three-stage ensemble model to estimate daily mean Ta from satellite-based land surface temperature (Ts) over Sweden during 2001-2019 at a high spatial resolution of 1 × 1 km2. The ensemble model incorporated four base models, including a generalized additive model (GAM), a generalized additive mixed model (GAMM), and two machine learning models (random forest [RF] and extreme gradient boosting [XGBoost]), and allowed the weights for each model to vary over space, with the best-performing model for each grid cell assigned the highest weight. Various spatial predictors were included as adjustment variables in all the base models, including land cover type, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and elevation. The ensemble model showed high performance with an overall R2 of 0.98 and a root mean square error of 1.38 °C in the ten-fold cross-validation, and outperformed each of the four base models. Although each base model performed well, the two machine learning models (RF [R2 = 0.97], XGBoost [R2 = 0.98]) had better performance than the two regression models (GAM [R2 = 0.95], GAMM [R2 = 0.96]). In the machine learning models, Ts was the dominant predictor of Ta, followed by day of year, NDVI, latitude, elevation, and longitude. The highly spatiotemporally-resolved Ta can improve temperature exposure assessment in future epidemiological studies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhihao Jin
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA; Yale Center on Climate Change and Health, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Yiqun Ma
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA; Yale Center on Climate Change and Health, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Lingzhi Chu
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA; Yale Center on Climate Change and Health, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Yang Liu
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Robert Dubrow
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA; Yale Center on Climate Change and Health, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Kai Chen
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA; Yale Center on Climate Change and Health, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA.
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Huang X, Ma W, Law C, Luo J, Zhao N. Importance of applying Mixed Generalized Additive Model (MGAM) as a method for assessing the environmental health impacts: Ambient temperature and Acute Myocardial Infarction (AMI), among elderly in Shanghai, China. PLoS One 2021; 16:e0255767. [PMID: 34383808 PMCID: PMC8360529 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0255767] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/20/2020] [Accepted: 07/23/2021] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Association between acute myocardial infarction (AMI) morbidity and ambient temperature has been examined with generalized linear model (GLM) or generalized additive model (GAM). However, the effect size by these two methods might be biased due to the autocorrelation of time series data and arbitrary selection of degree of freedom of natural cubic splines. The present study analyzed how the climatic factors affected AMI morbidity for older adults in Shanghai with Mixed generalized additive model (MGAM) that addressed these shortcomings mentioned. Autoregressive random effect was used to model the relationship between AMI and temperature, PM10, week days and time. The degree of freedom of time was chosen based on the seasonal pattern of temperature. The performance of MGAM was compared with GAM on autocorrelation function (ACF), partial autocorrelation function (PACF) and goodness of fit. One-year predictions of AMI counts in 2011 were conducted using MGAM with the moving average. Between 2007 and 2011, MGAM adjusted the autocorrelation of AMI time series and captured the seasonal pattern after choosing the degree of freedom of time at 5. Using MGAM, results were well fitted with data in terms of both internal (R2 = 0.86) and external validity (correlation coefficient = 0.85). The risk of AMI was relatively high in low temperature (Risk ratio = 0.988 (95% CI 0.984, 0.993) for under 12°C) and decreased as temperature increased and speeded up within the temperature zone from 12°C to 26°C (Risk ratio = 0.975 (95% CI 0.971, 0.979), but it become increasing again when it is 26°C although not significantly (Risk ratio = 0.999 (95% CI 0.986, 1.012). MGAM is more appropriate than GAM in the scenario of response variable with autocorrelation and predictors with seasonal variation. The risk of AMI was comparatively higher when temperature was lower than 12°C in Shanghai as a typical representative location of subtropical climate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaoqian Huang
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- NHC Key Laboratory of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety of Ministry of Education, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Weiping Ma
- Department of Genetics and Genomic Sciences, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, United States of America
- Icahn Institute of Genomics and Multiscale Biology, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, United States of America
| | - Chikin Law
- NHMRC Clinical Trials Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia
| | - Jianfeng Luo
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- NHC Key Laboratory of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety of Ministry of Education, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- * E-mail:
| | - Naiqing Zhao
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- NHC Key Laboratory of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety of Ministry of Education, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
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Estimation of Hourly near Surface Air Temperature Across Israel Using an Ensemble Model. REMOTE SENSING 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/rs12111741] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/02/2023]
Abstract
Mapping of near-surface air temperature (Ta) at high spatio-temporal resolution is essential for unbiased assessment of human health exposure to temperature extremes, not least given the observed trend of urbanization and global climate change. Data constraints have led previous studies to focus merely on daily Ta metrics, rather than hourly ones, making them insufficient for intra-day assessment of health exposure. In this study, we present a three-stage machine learning-based ensemble model to estimate hourly Ta at a high spatial resolution of 1 × 1 km2, incorporating remotely sensed surface skin temperature (Ts) from geostationary satellites, reanalysis synoptic variables, and observations from weather stations, as well as auxiliary geospatial variables, which account for spatio-temporal variability of Ta. The Stage 1 model gap-fills hourly Ts at 4 × 4 km2 from the Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI), which are subsequently fed into the Stage 2 model to estimate hourly Ta at the same spatio-temporal resolution. The Stage 3 model downscales the residuals between estimated and measured Ta to a grid of 1 × 1 km2, taking into account additionally the monthly diurnal pattern of Ts derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. In each stage, the ensemble model synergizes estimates from the constituent base learners—random forest (RF) and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost)—by applying a geographically weighted generalized additive model (GAM), which allows the weights of results from individual models to vary over space and time. Demonstrated for Israel for the period 2004–2017, the proposed ensemble model outperformed each of the two base learners. It also attained excellent five-fold cross-validated performance, with overall root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.8 and 0.9 °C, mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.6 and 0.7 °C, and R2 of 0.95 and 0.98 in Stage 1 and Stage 2, respectively. The Stage 3 model for downscaling Ta residuals to 1 km MODIS grids achieved overall RMSE of 0.3 °C, MAE of 0.5 °C, and R2 of 0.63. The generated hourly 1 × 1 km2 Ta thus serves as a foundation for monitoring and assessing human health exposure to temperature extremes at a larger geographical scale, helping to further minimize exposure misclassification in epidemiological studies.
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