HSV-2 serology can be predictive of HIV epidemic potential and hidden sexual risk behavior in the Middle East and North Africa

Understanding dynamics and overlapping epidemiologies of HIV, HSV-2, chlamydia, gonorrhea, and syphilis in sexual networks of men who have sex with men

Introduction

We aimed to investigate the overlapping epidemiologies of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2), chlamydia, gonorrhea, and syphilis in sexual networks of men who have sex with men (MSM), and to explore to what extent the epidemiology of one sexually transmitted infection (STI) relates to or differs from that of another STI.

Methods

An individual-based Monte Carlo simulation model was employed to simulate the concurrent transmission of STIs within diverse sexual networks of MSM. The model simulated sexual partnering, birth, death, and STI transmission within each specific sexual network. The model parameters were chosen based on the current knowledge and understanding of the natural history, transmission, and epidemiology of each considered STI. Associations were measured using the Spearman's rank correlation coefficient (SRCC) and maximal information coefficient (MIC).

Results

A total of 500 sexual networks were simulated by varying the mean and variance of the number of partners for both short-term and all partnerships, degree correlation, and clustering coefficient. HSV-2 had the highest current infection prevalence across the simulations, followed by HIV, chlamydia, syphilis, and gonorrhea. Threshold and saturation effects emerged in the relationship between STIs across the simulated networks, and all STIs demonstrated moderate to strong associations. The strongest current infection prevalence association was between HIV and gonorrhea, with an SRCC of 0.84 (95% CI: 0.80-0.87) and an MIC of 0.81 (95% CI: 0.74-0.88). The weakest association was between HSV-2 and syphilis, with an SRCC of 0.54 (95% CI: 0.48-0.59) and an MIC of 0.57 (95% CI, 0.49-0.65). Gonorrhea exhibited the strongest associations with the other STIs while syphilis had the weakest associations. Across the simulated networks, proportions of the population with zero, one, two, three, four, and five concurrent STI infections were 48.6, 37.7, 11.1, 2.4, 0.3, and < 0.1%, respectively. For lifetime exposure to these infections, these proportions were 13.6, 21.0, 22.9, 24.3, 13.4, and 4.8%, respectively.

Conclusion

STI epidemiologies demonstrate substantial overlap and associations, alongside nuanced differences that shape a unique pattern for each STI. Gonorrhea exhibits an "intermediate STI epidemiology," reflected by the highest average correlation coefficient with other STIs.

Immunopathology of herpes simplex virus-associated neuroinflammation: Unveiling the mysteries

The immunopathology of herpes simplex virus (HSV)-associated neuroinflammation is a captivating and intricate field of study within the scientific community. HSV, renowned for its latent infection capability, gives rise to a spectrum of neurological expressions, ranging from mild symptoms to severe encephalitis. The enigmatic interplay between the virus and the host's immune responses profoundly shapes the outcome of these infections. This review delves into the multifaceted immune reactions triggered by HSV within neural tissues, intricately encompassing the interplay between innate and adaptive immunity. Furthermore, this analysis delves into the delicate equilibrium between immune defence and the potential for immunopathology-induced neural damage. It meticulously dissects the roles of diverse immune cells, cytokines, and chemokines, unravelling the intricacies of neuroinflammation modulation and its subsequent effects. By exploring HSV's immune manipulation and exploitation mechanisms, this review endeavours to unveil the enigmas surrounding the immunopathology of HSV-associated neuroinflammation. This comprehensive understanding enhances our grasp of viral pathogenesis and holds promise for pioneering therapeutic strategies designed to mitigate the neurological ramifications of HSV infections.

Seroprevalence of herpes simplex virus type 1 and type 2 among the migrant workers in Qatar

BACKGROUND

Limited data exists on herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) and type 2 (HSV-2) infections in migrant populations. This study investigated HSV-1 and HSV-2 seroprevalences and associations among craft and manual workers (CMWs) in Qatar who constitute 60% of Qatar's population.

METHODS

A national population-based cross-sectional seroprevalence survey was conducted on the CMW population, all men, between July 26 and September 9, 2020. 2,612 sera were tested for anti-HSV-1 IgG antibodies using HerpeSelect 1 ELISA IgG kits and for anti-HSV-2 IgG antibodies using HerpeSelect 2 ELISA IgG kits (Focus Diagnostics, USA). Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify associations with HSV-1 and HSV-2 infections.

RESULTS

Serological testing identified 2,171 sera as positive, 403 as negative, and 38 as equivocal for HSV-1 antibodies, and 300 sera as positive, 2,250 as negative, and 62 as equivocal for HSV-2 antibodies. HSV-1 and HSV-2 seroprevalences among CMWs were estimated at 84.2% (95% CI 82.8-85.6%) and 11.4% (95% CI 10.1-12.6%), respectively. HSV-1 infection was associated with nationality, educational attainment, and occupation. HSV-2 infection was associated with age, nationality, and educational attainment.

CONCLUSIONS

Over 80% of CMWs are infected with HSV-1 and over 10% are infected with HSV-2. The findings highlight the need for sexual health programs to tackle sexually transmitted infections among the CMW population.

Epidemiology of herpes simplex virus type 1 in Canada: systematic review, meta-analyses, and meta-regressions

Background

The objective of this study was to characterize herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) epidemiology in Canada.

Methods

HSV-1 publications as recent as December 6, 2021 were systematically reviewed, synthesized, and reported following PRISMA guidelines. Meta-analyses and meta-regressions were conducted.

Results

HSV-1 measures were extracted from 22 studies and included 32 overall seroprevalence measures (79 stratified), 2 overall proportions of HSV-1 detection in clinically diagnosed genital ulcer disease (2 stratified), and 8 overall proportions of HSV-1 detection in laboratory-confirmed genital herpes (27 stratified). Pooled mean seroprevalence was 19.1% [95% confidence interval (CI): 12.6-26.4%] among healthy children and 51.4% (95% CI: 47.3-55.5%) among healthy adults. Pooled mean seroprevalence among healthy general populations increased with age, with the lowest being 35.7% (95% CI: 29.1-42.6%) among individuals <20 years of age, and the highest being 70.0% (95% CI: 54.8-83.2) among individuals ≥40 years. Seroprevalence increased by 1.02-fold (95% CI: 1.01-1.04) per year. Pooled mean proportion of HSV-1 detection in genital ulcer disease was 30.8% (95% CI: 12.6-52.8%). Pooled mean proportion of HSV-1 detection in genital herpes was 37.4% (95% CI: 29.5-45.6%) and was highest in women and in young persons. Proportion of HSV-1 detection in genital herpes increased by 1.04-fold (95% CI: 1.00-1.08) per year.

Conclusions

HSV-1 epidemiology in Canada appears to be shifting toward less oral acquisition in childhood and more genital acquisition in adulthood, particularly among youth. Both HSV-1 seroprevalence and proportion of HSV-1 detection in genital herpes are increasing with time.

Epidemiology of herpes simplex virus type 2 in the Middle East and North Africa: Systematic review, meta-analyses, and meta-regressions

BACKGROUND

Herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infection is a prevalent, sexually transmitted infection with poorly characterized prevalence in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. This study characterized HSV-2 epidemiology in MENA.

METHODS

The systematic review was guided by the Cochrane Collaboration Handbook and findings were reported following PRISMA guidelines. Random-effects meta-analyses and meta-regressions were performed to estimate pooled mean outcome measures and to assess predictors of HSV-2 antibody prevalence (seroprevalence), trends in seroprevalence, and between-study heterogeneity.

FINDINGS

61 overall (133 stratified) HSV-2 seroprevalence measures and two overall (4 stratified) proportion measures of HSV-2 detection in laboratory-confirmed genital herpes were extracted from 37 relevant publications. Pooled mean seroprevalence was 5.1% (95% CI: 3.6-6.8%) among general populations, 13.3% (95% CI: 8.6-18.7%) among intermediate-risk populations, 20.6% (95% CI: 5.3-42.3%) among female sex workers, and 18.3% (95% CI: 3.9-39.4%) among male sex workers. Compared to Fertile Crescent countries, seroprevalence was 3.39-fold (95% CI: 1.86-6.20) and 3.90-fold (95% CI: 1.78-8.57) higher in Maghreb and Horn of Africa countries, respectively. Compared to studies published before 2010, seroprevalence was 1.73-fold (95% CI: 1.00-2.99) higher in studies published after 2015. Pooled mean proportion of HSV-2 detection in genital herpes was 73.8% (95% CI: 42.2-95.9%).

CONCLUSION

MENA has a lower HSV-2 seroprevalence than other world regions. Yet, 1 in 20 adults is chronically infected, despite conservative prevailing sexual norms. Seroprevalence may also be increasing, unlike other world regions. Findings support the need for expansion of surveillance and monitoring of HSV-2 infection in MENA. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Epidemiology of herpes simplex virus type 2 in Europe: systematic review, meta-analyses, and meta-regressions

Background

Herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infection is a globally prevalent, life-long, sexually transmitted infection. This study characterized HSV-2 seroprevalence in Europe for various at-risk populations and proportions of HSV-2 detection in genital ulcer disease (GUD) and in genital herpes. Data on neonatal herpes and HSV-2's contribution to HIV transmission were also reviewed.

Methods

Cochrane and PRISMA guidelines were followed to systematically review, synthesize, and report HSV-2 related findings. The search was conducted in PubMed and Embase databases up to February 20, 2022. Any publication reporting data on the outcome measures was included. Meta-analyses and meta-regressions were conducted.

Findings

211 relevant reports were identified, including 12 overall incidence measures, 294 overall (813 stratified by factors such as age and sex) seroprevalence measures, 13 overall (15 stratified by sex) proportions of HSV-2 detection in clinically diagnosed GUD, and 70 overall (183 stratified by factors such as age and sex) proportions of HSV-2 detection in laboratory-confirmed genital herpes. Pooled mean seroprevalence was 12.4% (95% CI: 11.5-13.3%) among general populations, 27.8% (95% CI: 17.5-39.4%) among men who have sex with men, 46.0% (95% CI: 40.1-51.8%) among people living with HIV and people in HIV discordant couples, and 63.2% (95% CI: 55.5-70.6%) among female sex workers. Most measures showed heterogeneity in HSV-2 seroprevalence. The pooled mean seroprevalence among general populations increased with age and was 0.65-fold (95% CI: 0.58-0.74) lower in men than women. Seroprevalence decreased by 1% per calendar year. Pooled mean proportions of HSV-2 detection in GUD and in genital herpes were 22.0% (95% CI: 15.3-29.6%) and 66.0% (95% CI: 62.9-69.1%), respectively. HSV-2 detection in genital herpes cases was 1.21-fold (95% CI: 1.10-1.32) higher in men compared to women and decreased by 1% per calendar year. Incidence of neonatal herpes indicated an increasing trend.

Interpretation

Although seroprevalence is declining, a significant proportion of Europe's population is infected with HSV-2. HSV-2 accounts for approximately one-fifth of GUD cases and two-thirds of genital herpes cases. Findings support the need to invest in HSV-2 vaccine development, and sexual and reproductive health services.

Funding

Qatar National Research Fund [NPRP 9-040-3-008] and pilot funding from the Biomedical Research Program at Weill Cornell Medicine in Qatar supported this study.

Mathematical modeling of HIV-HCV co-infection model: Impact of parameters on reproduction number

Background: Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) and Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) are both as classified blood-borne viruses since they are transmitted through contact with contaminated blood. Approximately 1.3 million of the 2.75 million global HIV/HCV carriers inject drugs (PWID). HIV co-infection has a harmful effect on the progression of HCV, resulting in greater rates of HCV persistence after acute infection, higher viral levels, and accelerated progression of liver fibrosis and end-stage liver disease. In this study, we developed and investigated a mathematical model for the dynamical behavior of HIV/AIDS and HCV co-infection, which includes therapy for both diseases, vertical transmission in HIV cases, unawareness and awareness of HIV infection, inefficient HIV treatment follow-up, and efficient condom use. Methods: Positivity and boundedness of the model under investigation were established using well-known theorems. The equilibria were demonstrated by bringing all differential equations to zero. The associative reproduction numbers for mono-infected and dual-infected models were calculated using the next-generation matrix approach. The local and global stabilities of the models were validated using the linearization and comparison theorem and the negative criterion techniques of bendixson and dulac, respectively. Results: The growing prevalence of HIV treatment dropout in each compartment of the HIV model led to a reduction in HIV on treatment compartments while other compartments exhibited an increase in populations . In dually infected patients, treating HCV first reduces co-infection reproduction number R ech , which reduces liver cancer risk. Conclusions: From the model's results, we infer various steps that policymakers could take to reduce the number of mono-infected and co-infected individuals.

Mathematical modeling of HIV-HCV co-infection model: Impact of parameters on reproduction number

Background: Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) and Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) are both classified as blood-borne viruses since they are transmitted through contact with contaminated blood. Approximately 1.3 million of the 2.75 million global HIV/HCV carriers are people who inject drugs (PWID). HIV co-infection has a harmful effect on the progression of HCV, resulting in greater rates of HCV persistence after acute infection, higher viral levels, and accelerated progression of liver fibrosis and end-stage liver disease. In this study, we developed and investigated a mathematical model for the dynamical behavior of HIV/AIDS and HCV co-infection, which includes therapy for both diseases, vertical transmission in HIV cases, unawareness and awareness of HIV infection, inefficient HIV treatment follow-up, and efficient condom use. Methods: Positivity and boundedness of the model under investigation were established using well-known theorems. The equilibria were demonstrated by bringing all differential equations to zero. The associative reproduction numbers for mono-infected and dual-infected models were calculated using the next-generation matrix approach. The local and global stabilities of the models were validated using the linearization and comparison theorem and the negative criterion techniques of bendixson and dulac, respectively. Results: The growing prevalence of HIV treatment dropout in each compartment of the HIV model led to a reduction in HIV on treatment compartments while other compartments exhibited an increase in populations . In dually infected patients, treating HCV first reduces co-infection reproduction number R ech , which reduces liver cancer risk. Conclusions: From the model's results, we infer various steps (such as: campaigns to warn individuals about the consequences of having multiple sexual partners; distributing more condoms to individuals; continuing treatment for chronic HCV and AIDS) that policymakers could take to reduce the number of mono-infected and co-infected individuals.

Herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) and its association with HIV, HCV, HBV, HTLV-1&2 and syphilis among men who have sex with men in Burkina Faso

PURPOSE

This study aimed to estimate herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) seroprevalence and its association with HIV, HBV, HCV, HTLV-1&2 and syphilis among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, West Africa.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We screened MSM sera for HSV-2 antibodies. A total of 329 sera were collected from an HIV and syphilis behavioral and biological cross-sectional survey conducted among MSM in Ouagadougou from January to April 2013. Serum samples were tested using Enzyme Linked Immuno-Sorbent Assay (ELISA) for the detection of IgG antibodies to HSV-2. Also, antibodies to HTLV-1&2, HBsAg and anti-HCV antibodies were screened by ELISA. Laboratory assays were performed according to manufacturers' instructions at the Biomedical Research Laboratory at the "Institut de Recherche en Sciences de la Sante" (IRSS) in Burkina Faso.

RESULTS

The seroprevalence of HSV-2 infection among MSM was 14.3%(95% CI: 10.6-18.1), with disparities according to age and occupation. HSV-2 seroprevalence was high among MSM who were seropositive for HIV (40% versus 13.9%), for syphilis (42.9% versus 13.3%), for HCV (32.5% versus 11.7%) and for HTLV-1&2 (38.5% versus 12.9%) compared to people seronegative for these pathogens. Multivariate analysis showed that HIV-positive (ORa ​= ​5.34, p ​= ​0.027), anti-HCV-positive (ORa ​= ​4.44, p ​= ​0.001), and HTLV-1&2 positive (aOR ​= ​4.11, p ​= ​0.046) were associated with HSV-2 infection among MSM. However, no significant statistical association between HSV-2 and syphilis was found.

CONCLUSION

HSV-2 seroprevalence among MSM in Burkina Faso is relatively high. Positive associations between sexual transmitted infections including HIV with HSV-2 suggest that HSV-2 infection's prevention should be strengthened through HIV transmission control programs.

Seroprevalence of herpes simplex virus types 1 and 2 and correlates of infection in Jordan

BACKGROUND

Herpes infections are common infections among populations. Herein, a cross-sectional study was used to determine the seroprevalence of herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) and herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) IgG antibodies and their association with potential infection risk factors among Jordanians.

METHODS

A total of 759 serum samples were collected (January to February 2020) and analyzed for HSV-1 and HSV-2 IgG antibodies by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Estimates for population seropositivity were determined by weighting the age-specific seroprevalence by the size of the population in each age stratum.

RESULTS

The population estimate for HSV-1 seroprevalence was 75.3%. After adjustment for possible confounders, regression analysis revealed higher seroprevalence with increase in age (p < 0.005) and low household income (p = 0.002). The population estimate for HSV-2 seroprevalence was 2.9%. No significant differences in HSV-2 seroprevalence were observed in association with age, gender, family size, educational level, and socioeconomic status, likely due to low seropositivity.

CONCLUSIONS

Jordanians have high HSV-1 and low HSV-2 seroprevalence. Periodical studies might be needed to evaluate changes in HSV-1 and HSV-2 seroprevalence over time. This study provides essential epidemiological data for Jordan and the Middle East and North Africa region.

Sexual Behavior Surveys Should Ask More: Covering the Diversity of Sexual Behaviors That May Contribute to the Transmission of Pathogens

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Seroprevalence of Chlamydia trachomatis Among Female Adults in the United States: The National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys

BACKGROUND

Chlamydia trachomatis is the most common nationally notifiable sexually transmitted infection in the United States; however, the seroprevalence of C. trachomatis infection is unknown.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study was conducted among 1725 females aged 18 to 39 years who provided serum and urine samples in the 2013 through 2016 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys. Presence of anti-C. trachomatis Pgp3 immunoglobulin G (IgG) was determined using both an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and multiplex bead array (MBA). Weighted seroprevalence estimates were calculated. Correlates of seroprevalence were examined by multivariable Poisson regression.

RESULTS

In 2013 through 2016, overall seroprevalence of C. trachomatis Pgp3 IgG was 30.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 25.5-35.0) as measured by ELISA and 29.4% (95% CI, 25.8-33.0) as measured by the MBA assay. Overall agreement between tests was 87.1% (1503/1725). There was a high positive agreement by the MBA assay with current detection of chlamydia in urine (86% [36/42]), a past-year diagnosis of chlamydia (81.8% [27/33]), and a history of treatment for pelvic inflammatory disease (60.7% [37/61]). Seroprevalence of C. trachomatis Pgp3 IgG, as measured by MBA, was significantly higher among non-Hispanic Blacks (68.0%; adjusted prevalence ratio (aPR) = 2.7 [95% CI, 2.3-3.3]), Mexican Americans (30.9%; aPR = 1.5 [95% CI, 1.2-1.9]), and other Hispanics (35.0%; aPR = 1.9 [95% CI, 1.4-2.5]) compared with non-Hispanic Whites (21.4%). A higher lifetime number of sexual partners and a younger age at sexual debut was also associated with higher seroprevalence.

CONCLUSION

Both the ELISA and MBA serologic assays revealed a high prevalence of antibodies to C. trachomatis Pgp3 in young adult females in the US household population. There were major racial/ethnic disparities in exposure to C. trachomatis, with increased vulnerability among non-Hispanic Black females.

Epidemiology of herpes simplex virus type 2 in Latin America and the Caribbean: systematic review, meta-analyses and metaregressions

Objective

To characterise epidemiology of herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Methods

HSV-2 reports were systematically reviewed and synthesised, and findings were reported following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. Meta-analyses and metaregressions were conducted.

Finding

102 relevant reports were identified including 13 overall incidence measures, 163 overall (and 402 stratified) seroprevalence measures, and 7 and 10 proportions of virus detection in genital ulcer disease and in genital herpes, respectively. Pooled mean seroprevalence was 20.6% (95% CI 18.7% to 22.5%) in general populations, 33.3% (95% CI 26.0% to 41.0%) in intermediate-risk populations, 74.8% (95% CI 70.6% to 78.8%) in female sex workers, and 54.6% (95% CI 47.4% to 61.7%) in male sex workers, men who have sex with men and transgender people. In general populations, seroprevalence increased from 9.6% (95% CI 7.1% to 12.4%) in those aged <20 years to 17.9% (95% CI 13.6% to 22.5%) in those aged 20–30, 27.6% (95% CI 21.4% to 34.2%) in those aged 30–40 and 38.4% (95% CI 32.8% to 44.2%) in those aged >40. Compared with women, men had lower seroprevalence with an adjusted risk ratio (ARR) of 0.68 (95% CI 0.60 to 0.76). Seroprevalence declined by 2% per year over the last three decades (ARR of 0.98, 95% CI 0.97 to 0.99). Pooled mean proportions of HSV-2 detection in GUD and genital herpes were 41.4% (95% CI 18.9% to 67.0%) and 91.1% (95% CI 82.7% to 97.2%), respectively.

Conclusions

One in five adults is HSV-2 infected, a higher level than other world regions, but seroprevalence is declining. Despite this decline, HSV-2 persists as the aetiological cause of nearly half of GUD cases and almost all of genital herpes cases.

Epidemiology of herpes simplex virus type 2 in sub-Saharan Africa: Systematic review, meta-analyses, and meta-regressions

BACKGROUND

Herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infection is a prevalent, sexually transmitted infection with a sizable disease burden that is highest in sub-Saharan Africa. This study aimed to characterize HSV-2 epidemiology in this region.

METHODS

Cochrane and PRISMA guidelines were followed to systematically review, synthesize, and report HSV-2 related findings up to August 23, 2020. Meta-analyses and meta-regressions were conducted.

FINDINGS

From 218 relevant publications, 451 overall outcome measures and 869 stratified measures were extracted. Pooled incidence rates ranged between 2.4-19.4 per 100 person-years across populations. Pooled seroprevalence was lowest at 37.3% (95% confidence interval (CI): 34.9-39.7%) in general populations and high in female sex workers and HIV-positive individuals at 62.5% (95% CI: 54.8-70.0%) and 71.3% (95% CI: 66.5-75.9%), respectively. In general populations, pooled seroprevalence increased steadily with age. Compared to women, men had a lower seroprevalence with an adjusted risk ratio (ARR) of 0.61 (95% CI: 0.56-0.67). Seroprevalence has decreased in recent decades with an ARR of 0.98 (95% CI: 0.97-0.99) per year. Seroprevalence was highest in Eastern and Southern Africa. Pooled HSV-2 proportion in genital ulcer disease was 50.7% (95% CI: 44.7-56.8%) and in genital herpes it was 97.3% (95% CI: 84.4-100%).

INTERPRETATION

Seroprevalence is declining by 2% per year, but a third of the population is infected. Age and geography play profound roles in HSV-2 epidemiology. Temporal declines and geographic distribution of HSV-2 seroprevalence mirror that of HIV prevalence, suggesting sexual risk behavior has been declining for three decades. HSV-2 is the etiological cause of half of genital ulcer disease and nearly all genital herpes cases with limited role for HSV-1.

FUNDING

This work was supported by pilot funding from the Biomedical Research Program at Weill Cornell Medicine in Qatar and by the Qatar National Research Fund [NPRP 9-040-3-008].

Epidemiology of herpes simplex virus type 2 in sub-Saharan Africa: Systematic review, meta-analyses, and meta-regressions

BACKGROUND

Herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infection is a prevalent, sexually transmitted infection with a sizable disease burden that is highest in sub-Saharan Africa. This study aimed to characterize HSV-2 epidemiology in this region.

METHODS

Cochrane and PRISMA guidelines were followed to systematically review, synthesize, and report HSV-2 related findings up to August 23, 2020. Meta-analyses and meta-regressions were conducted.

FINDINGS

From 218 relevant publications, 451 overall outcome measures and 869 stratified measures were extracted. Pooled incidence rates ranged between 2.4-19.4 per 100 person-years across populations. Pooled seroprevalence was lowest at 37.3% (95% confidence interval (CI): 34.9-39.7%) in general populations and high in female sex workers and HIV-positive individuals at 62.5% (95% CI: 54.8-70.0%) and 71.3% (95% CI: 66.5-75.9%), respectively. In general populations, pooled seroprevalence increased steadily with age. Compared to women, men had a lower seroprevalence with an adjusted risk ratio (ARR) of 0.61 (95% CI: 0.56-0.67). Seroprevalence has decreased in recent decades with an ARR of 0.98 (95% CI: 0.97-0.99) per year. Seroprevalence was highest in Eastern and Southern Africa. Pooled HSV-2 proportion in genital ulcer disease was 50.7% (95% CI: 44.7-56.8%) and in genital herpes it was 97.3% (95% CI: 84.4-100%).

INTERPRETATION

Seroprevalence is declining by 2% per year, but a third of the population is infected. Age and geography play profound roles in HSV-2 epidemiology. Temporal declines and geographic distribution of HSV-2 seroprevalence mirror that of HIV prevalence, suggesting sexual risk behavior has been declining for three decades. HSV-2 is the etiological cause of half of genital ulcer disease and nearly all genital herpes cases with limited role for HSV-1.

FUNDING

This work was supported by pilot funding from the Biomedical Research Program at Weill Cornell Medicine in Qatar and by the Qatar National Research Fund [NPRP 9-040-3-008].

Analytic Characterization of the Herpes Simplex Virus Type 2 Epidemic in the United States, 1950-2050

Background

We analytically characterized the past, present, and future levels and trends of the national herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) epidemic in the United States.

Methods

A population-level mathematical model was constructed to describe HSV-2 transmission dynamics and was fitted to the data series of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

Results

Over 1950–2050, antibody prevalence (seroprevalence) increased rapidly from 1960, peaking at 19.9% in 1983 in those aged 15–49 years, before reversing course to decline to 13.2% by 2020 and 8.5% by 2050. Incidence rate peaked in 1971 at 11.9 per 1000 person-years, before declining by 59% by 2020 and 70% by 2050. Annual number of new infections peaked at 1 033 000 in 1978, before declining to 667 000 by 2020 and 600 000 by 2050. Women were disproportionately affected, averaging 75% higher seroprevalence, 95% higher incidence rate, and 71% higher annual number of infections. In 2020, 78% of infections were acquired by those 15–34 years of age.

Conclusions

The epidemic has undergone a major transition over a century, with the greatest impact in those 15–34 years of age. In addition to 47 million prevalent infections in 2020, high incidence will persist over the next 3 decades, adding >600 000 new infections every year.

HSV-2 as a biomarker of HIV epidemic potential in female sex workers: meta-analysis, global epidemiology and implications

This study investigated herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) seroprevalence utility as a predictor of HIV epidemic potential among female sex workers (FSWs) globally. We updated and analyzed a systematically-assembled database for paired HSV-2 and HIV seroprevalence measures among FSWs. The study identified 231 paired HSV-2/HIV prevalence measures from 40 countries. The pooled mean HIV prevalence using meta-analysis increased from 3.7% (95% CI 0.3-9.9%) among populations of FSWs with HSV-2 prevalence < 25% to 18.7% (95% CI 14.1-23.8%) among those with HSV-2 prevalence 75-100%. HIV prevalence was negligible in FSWs with HSV-2 prevalence ≤ 20% suggesting a threshold effect. Multivariable meta-regressions explained > 65% of HIV prevalence variation, and identified a strong positive HSV-2/HIV association. Compared to populations of FSWs with HSV-2 prevalence < 25%, adjusted odds ratios (AORs) of HIV infection increased from 2.8 (95% CI 1.2-6.3) in those with HSV-2 prevalence 25-49%, to 13.4 (95% CI 6.1-29.9) in those with HSV-2 prevalence 75-100%. HSV-2 is a strong predictor of HIV epidemic potential among FSWs. HSV-2 prevalence of 25-49% indicates potential for intermediate-intensity HIV epidemics, with higher levels indicative of large epidemics. HSV-2 surveillance could inform HIV preparedness in countries where HIV prevalence among FSWs is still limited or at zero-level.

Beach boys in Galle, Sri Lanka: multiple HIV risk behaviours and potential for HIV bridging

Background

There are limited data globally on HIV in men who engage in casual and transactional sex with female tourists.

Methods

In 2018 we carried out a respondent-driven sampling (RDS) survey among beach boys in Galle, Sri Lanka, to determine prevalence of HIV and other infections, HIV risk behaviours and utilisation of HIV prevention services. Eligibility criteria included men who cruise in and around beach areas and who had anal and/or vaginal sex with female or male tourists in the 12 months before the survey.

Results

We recruited 373 beach boys. Approximately 49.6% of the participants were married, while 45.7% were single and 4.7% divorced, separated or widowed. A lower percentage of beach boys reported regular partners in the past 12 months (52.3%) compared to casual partners (95.4%). Condom use at last sex with a casual partner was higher (76.7%) compared to condom use with regular partners (58.3%). Condom use at last sex with a tourist was reported by 75.3%. Ever receiving money, goods or services in exchange for sex was reported by 39.7%. For 85.5% of beach boys who sold sex, the last paying partner was a tourist (85.5%) and a woman (82.0%). In the past 12 months before the survey, 32.3% of beach boys paid money for sex, and 99.5% did so from women.

Ever been tested for HIV was reported by 35.3, and 69.1% of those were tested in the 6 months before the survey. In the adjusted multivariate analysis, significant correlates of never testing for HIV were lack of comprehensive knowledge about HIV and unprotected last sexual intercourse with tourists.

The prevalent infections were: HIV, 0.3% (95% CI 0.0–0.4%); syphilis, 0.5% (0.0–1.2%); herpes virus type-2, 5.0% (2.5–7.5%).

Conclusions

There are low level HIV and syphilis prevalence among beach boys in Galle but a high level of sexual risk taking. Beach boys may be acting as a bridge for HIV transmission between higher-risk groups (paying female tourists, men who have sex with men) and lower-risk heterosexual female population in Sri Lanka. More research is needed in South-East Asia on men who trade sexual services to female and male tourists.

Epidemiological Impact of Novel Preventive and Therapeutic HSV-2 Vaccination in the United States: Mathematical Modeling Analyses

This study aims to inform herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) vaccine development, licensure, and implementation by delineating the population-level impact of vaccination. Mathematical models were constructed to describe the transmission dynamics in presence of prophylactic or therapeutic vaccines assuming 50% efficacy, with application to the United States. Catch-up prophylactic vaccination will reduce, by 2050, annual number of new infections by 58%, incidence rate by 60%, seroprevalence by 21%, and avert yearly as much as 350,000 infections. Number of vaccinations needed to avert one infection was only 50 by 2050, 34 by prioritizing those aged 15-19 years, 4 by prioritizing the highest sexual risk group, 43 by prioritizing women, and 47 by prioritizing men. Therapeutic vaccination of infected adults with symptomatic disease will reduce, by 2050, annual number of new infections by 12%, incidence rate by 13%, seroprevalence by 4%, and avert yearly as much as 76,000 infections. Number of vaccinations needed to avert one infection was eight by 2050, two by prioritizing those aged 15-19 years, three by prioritizing the highest sexual risk group, seven by prioritizing men, and ten by prioritizing women. HSV-2 vaccination offers an impactful and cost-effective intervention to prevent genital herpes medical and psychosexual disease burden.

Epidemiology of Chlamydia trachomatis in the Middle East and north Africa: a systematic review, meta-analysis, and meta-regression

BACKGROUND

The epidemiology of Chlamydia trachomatis in the Middle East and north Africa is poorly understood. We aimed to provide a comprehensive epidemiological assessment of C trachomatis infection in the Middle East and north Africa.

METHODS

We did a systematic review of C trachomatis infection as well as a meta-analysis and meta-regression of C trachomatis prevalence. We searched PubMed and Embase, as well as regional and national databases up to March 13, 2019, using broad search terms with no language or year restrictions. Any document or report including biological measures for C trachomatis prevalence or incidence was eligible for inclusion. We extracted all measures of current (genital or rectal), recent, and ever infection with C trachomatis. We estimated pooled average prevalence in different populations using random-effects meta-analysis. Factors associated with prevalence and sources of between-study heterogeneity were determined using meta-regression.

FINDINGS

We identified a total of 1531 citations, of which 255 reports contributed to 552 C trachomatis prevalence measures from 20 countries. No incidence measures were identified. Pooled prevalence of current genital infection was 3·0% (95% CI 2·3-3·8) in general populations, 2·8% (1·0-5·2) in intermediate-risk populations, 13·2% (7·2-20·7) in female sex workers, 11·3% (9·0-13·7) in infertility clinic attendees, 12·4% (7·9-17·7) in women with miscarriage, 12·4% (9·4-15·7) in symptomatic women, and 17·4% (12·5-22·8) in symptomatic men. Pooled prevalence of current rectal infection was 7·7% (4·2-12·0) in men who have sex with men. Substantial between-study heterogeneity was found. Multivariable meta-regression explained 29·0% of variation. Population type was most strongly associated with prevalence. Additional associations were found with assay type, sample size, country, and sex, but not with sampling methodology or response rate (about 90% of studies used convenience sampling and >75% had unclear response rate). There was no evidence for temporal variation in prevalence between 1982 and 2018.

INTERPRETATION

C trachomatis prevalence in the Middle East and north Africa is similar to other regions, but higher than expected given its sexually conservative norms. High prevalence in infertility clinic attendees and in women with miscarriage suggests a potential role for C trachomatis in poor reproductive health outcomes in this region.

FUNDING

National Priorities Research Program from the Qatar National Research Fund (a member of Qatar Foundation).

Global epidemiology of Neisseria gonorrhoeae in infertile populations: systematic review, meta-analysis and metaregression

Objective

To provide an in-depth systematic assessment of the global epidemiology of gonorrhoea infection in infertile populations.

Methods

A systematic literature review was conducted up to 29 April 2019 on international databases and WHO regional databases, and reported following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. All prevalence measures of gonorrhoea infection among infertile populations, based on primary data, qualified for inclusion. Infertile populations were broadly defined to encompass women/men undergoing infertility evaluation or treatment (infertility clinic attendees and partners). Pooled mean prevalence by relevant strata was estimated using random-effects meta-analysis. Associations with prevalence and sources of heterogeneity were explored using metaregression. Risk of bias was assessed using four quality domains.

Findings

A total of 147 gonorrhoea prevalence studies were identified from 56 countries. The pooled mean prevalence of current gonorrhoea infection was estimated globally at 2.2% (95% CI 1.3% to 3.2%), with the highest prevalence in Africa at 5.0% (95% CI 1.9% to 9.3%). The mean prevalence was higher for populations with tubal factor infertility (3.6%, 95% CI 0.9%–7.7%) and mixed cause and unexplained infertility (3.6%, 95% CI 0.0% to 11.6%) compared with other diagnoses, such as ovarian and non-tubal infertility (0.1%, 95% CI 0.0% to 0.8%), and for secondary (2.5%, 95% CI 0.2% to 6.5%) compared with primary (0.5%, 95% CI 0.0% to 1.7%) infertility. Metaregression identified evidence of variations in prevalence by region and by infertility diagnosis, higher prevalence in women than men and a small-study effect. There was a trend of declining prevalence by about 3% per year over the last four decades (OR=0.97, 95% CI 0.95 to 0.99).

Conclusions

Gonorrhoea prevalence in infertile populations is several folds higher than that in the general population, with even higher prevalence in women with tubal factor infertility and in individuals with secondary infertility. These findings support the potential role of gonorrhoea in infertility and suggest that some infertility is possibly preventable by controlling gonorrhoea transmission.

PROSPERO registration number

CRD42018102934.

Epidemiology of Treponema pallidum, Chlamydia trachomatis, Neisseria gonorrhoeae, Trichomonas vaginalis, and herpes simplex virus type 2 among female sex workers in the Middle East and North Africa: systematic review and meta-analytics

Background

The epidemiology of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and the role of commercial heterosexual sex networks in driving STI transmission in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region remain largely unknown.

Objective

To characterize the epidemiology of Treponema pallidum (syphilis), Chlamydia trachomatis, Neisseria gonorrhoeae, Trichomonas vaginalis, and herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) among female sex workers (FSWs) in MENA using an in-depth quantitative assessment.

Methods

A systematic review on ten international, regional, and country-level databases was conducted, and reported following PRISMA guidelines. Pooled prevalences of current and/or ever infection for each STI were estimated using random-effects meta-analyses. Sources of between-study heterogeneity were investigated through random-effects meta-regressions.

Results

One T. pallidum incidence study and 144 STI prevalence studies were identified for 45 812 FSWs in 13 MENA countries. The pooled prevalence of current infection was 12.7% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 8.5%-17.7%) for T. pallidum, 14.4% (95% CI = 8.2%-22.0%) for C. trachomatis, 5.7% (95% CI = 3.5%-8.4%) for N. gonorrhoeae, and 7.1% (95% CI = 4.3%-10.5%) for T. vaginalis. The pooled prevalence of ever infection (seropositivity using antibody testing) was 12.8% (95% CI = 9.4%-16.6%) for T. pallidum, 80.3% (95% CI = 53.2%-97.6%) for C. trachomatis, and 23.7% (95% CI = 10.2%-40.4%) for HSV-2. The multivariable meta-regression for T. pallidum infection demonstrated strong subregional differences, with the Horn of Africa and North Africa showing, respectively 6-fold (adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 6.4; 95% CI = 2.5-16.7) and 5-fold (AOR = 5.0; 95% CI = 2.5-10.6) higher odds of infection than Eastern MENA. There was also strong evidence for declining T. pallidum odds of infection at 7% per year (AOR = 0.93; 95% CI = 0.88-0.98). Study-specific factors including diagnostic method, sample size, sampling methodology, and response rate, were not associated with syphilis infection. The multivariable model explained 48.5% of the variation in T. pallidum prevalence.

Conclusions

STI infection levels among FSWs in MENA are considerable, supporting a key role for commercial heterosexual sex networks in transmission dynamics, and highlighting the health needs of this neglected and vulnerable population. Syphilis prevalence in FSWs appears to have been declining for at least three decades. Gaps in evidence persist for multiple countries.

Characterizing herpes simplex virus type 1 and type 2 seroprevalence declines and epidemiological association in the United States

Objective

Assessing the epidemiological association between herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) and type 2 (HSV-2) infections in the United States, and characterizing the trends in the standardized HSV-1 and HSV-2 antibody prevalences (seroprevalences), 1999–2016.

Methods

Source of data was the cross-sectional and nationally-representative biennial surveys of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). All nine NHANES rounds for 1999–2016 were included in analysis. Datasets of these rounds were combined and analyzed accounting for survey design and applying weighting procedures. Logistic regressions were used to identify associations with seropositivity. Sensitivity analyses were conducted.

Results

Odds of HSV-1 infection declined by 2.84% (95% CI: 1.70%-4.00%) annually among men, and by 2.22% (95% CI: 1.23%-3.21%) among women. Declines were highest at younger ages. Odds of HSV-2 infection declined by 2.23% (95% CI: 0.71%-3.82%) annually among men, and by 2.89% (95% CI: 1.57%-4.28%) among women. Odds ratio of the association between HSV-2 and HSV-1 seropositivity was 0.71 (95% CI: 0.60–0.84) for men and 0.81 (95% CI: 0.72–0.91) for women, after adjustment for age, ethnicity, and year.

Conclusion

HSV-1 and HSV-2 seroprevalences showed a strong declining trend for at least two decades, for both sexes and for the different ethnicities, possibly reflecting improvements in hygiene and living conditions (for HSV-1), and safer sexual behavior (for HSV-2). HSV-1 seroprevalence declines are most pronounced among young individuals. There is evidence for cross protection between the two infections, suggestive of HSV-1 seropositivity being partially protective against HSV-2 infection.

Herpes Simplex Virus Type 2 Seroprevalence Among Different National Populations of Middle East and North African Men

Herpes simplex virus type 2 seroprevalence among male blood donors from different Middle East and North Africa nationalities was in the range of few percentage points.

Supplemental digital content is available in the text.

Background

There are limited data on herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) seroprevalence in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). We examined country- and age-specific HSV-2 seroprevalence among select MENA populations residing in Qatar.

Methods

Sera were collected from male blood donors attending Hamad Medical Corporation between June 2013 and June 2016. Specimens were screened for anti-HSV-2 IgG antibodies following a 2-test algorithm: HerpeSelect 2 ELISA was used to identify HSV-2–positive specimens, and Euroline-WB was used to confirm positive and equivocal specimens for final HSV-2 status. Trends and associations with HSV-2 seropositivity were assessed.

Results

Of the 2077 tested sera, 61 were found and confirmed positive. The proportion of those confirmed positive increased steadily with HerpeSelect 2 ELISA index value, ranging from 16.3% for index values of 1.101 to 1.999 to 92.9% for index values of 4 or greater. Nationality-specific seroprevalence was 6.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.1%–8.8%) in Qataris, 5.3% (95% CI, 2.5%–11.1%) in Iranians, 4.2% (95% CI, 1.8%–9.5%) in Lebanese, 3.1% (95% CI, 1.2%–7.7%) in Sudanese, 3.0% (95% CI, 1.4%–6.4%) in Palestinians, 2.2% (95% CI, 1.1%–4.3%) in Egyptians, 2.0% (95% CI, 1.0%–5.0%) in Syrians, 1.0% (95% CI, 0.3%–3.6%) in Jordanians, 0.7% (95% CI, 0.1%–3.7%) in Yemenis, and 0.5% (95% CI, 0.1%–2.8%) in Pakistanis. There was evidence for higher seroprevalence in older age groups.

Conclusions

The seroprevalence of HSV-2 was in the range of few percentage points. There were no major differences in seroprevalence by nationality. These findings add to our understanding of HSV-2 epidemiology in MENA and indicate unmet needs for sexual health and control of sexually transmitted infections.

Herpes simplex virus type 1 epidemiology in the Middle East and North Africa: systematic review, meta-analyses, and meta-regressions

This study aimed at characterizing herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) epidemiology in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). HSV-1 records were systematically reviewed. Findings were reported following the PRISMA guidelines. Random-effects meta-analyses were implemented to estimate pooled mean HSV-1 seroprevalence. Random-effects meta-regressions were conducted to identify predictors of higher seroprevalence. Thirty-nine overall seroprevalence measures yielding 85 stratified measures were identified and included in the analyses. Pooled mean seroprevalence was 65.2% (95% CI: 53.6-76.1%) in children, and 91.5% (95% CI: 89.4-93.5%) in adults. By age group, seroprevalence was lowest at 60.5% (95% CI: 48.1-72.3%) in <10 years old, followed by 85.6% (95% CI: 80.5-90.1%) in 10-19 years old, 90.7% (95% CI: 84.7-95.5%) in 20-29 years old, and 94.3% (95% CI: 89.5-97.9%) in ≥30 years old. Age was the strongest predictor of seroprevalence explaining 44.3% of the variation. Assay type, sex, population type, year of data collection, year of publication, sample size, and sampling method were not significantly associated with seroprevalence. The a priori considered factors explained 48.6% of the variation in seroprevalence. HSV-1 seroprevalence persists at high levels in MENA with most infections acquired in childhood. There is no evidence for declines in seroprevalence despite improving socio-economic conditions.

Performance of four diagnostic assays for detecting herpes simplex virus type 2 antibodies in the Middle East and North Africa

BACKGROUND

Assessments of commercial assays in detecting herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) antibodies have shown variable sensitivity and specificity, and variation in performance by global population.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate performance of four assays in detecting HSV-2 antibodies in a composite Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) population. The assays are two ELISA kits: HerpeSelect^® 2 ELISA IgG and Euroimmun Anti-HSV-2 (gG2) ELISA (IgG), and two immunoblot (IB)/Western blot (WB) assays: HerpeSelect^® 1 and 2 Immunoblot IgG and Euroimmun Anti-HSV-1/HSV-2 gG2 Euroline-WB (IgG/IgM).

STUDY DESIGN

Blood specimens were drawn from blood donors between 2013-2016 in Doha, Qatar. Twenty specimens from ten nationalities (Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, Pakistan, Palestine, Qatar, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen; total = 200) were randomly selected and tested for HSV-2 antibodies.

RESULTS

In the six possible assay comparisons, Cohen's kappa statistics indicated fair to good agreement, ranging between 0.57 (95% CI 0.28-0.86) and 0.69 (95% CI 0.44-0.95). Meanwhile, positive percent agreement ranged between 50.0 (95% CI 18.7-81.3%) and 63.6% (95% CI 30.8-89.1%); negative percent agreement ranged between 97.8% (95% CI 94.4-99.4%) and 99.5% (95% CI 97.0-100.0%); and overall percent agreement ranged between 95.8% (95% CI 91.9-97.9%) and 97.5% (95% CI 94.2-98.9%). The two ELISA kits demonstrated comparable sensitivities and specificities ≥50% and >98%, respectively, with respect to the IB/WB assays.

CONCLUSION

The study provided, for the first time, primary data on performance of these assays in diagnosing HSV-2 infection in MENA populations. Findings support comparable performance and utility of these assays, and demonstrate challenges in establishing seropositivity (versus seronegativity).

Use of routine HIV testing data for early detection of emerging HIV epidemics in high-risk subpopulations: A concept demonstration study

Introduction

HIV epidemics in hard-to-reach high-risk subpopulations are often discovered years after epidemic emergence in settings with poor surveillance infrastructure. Using hypothesis-generation modeling, we aimed to investigate and demonstrate the concept of using routine HIV testing data to identify and characterize hidden epidemics in high-risk subpopulations. We also compared this approach to surveillance based on AIDS case notifications.

Methods

A deterministic mathematical model was developed to simulate an emerging HIV epidemic in a high-risk subpopulation. A stochastic Monte Carlo simulation was implemented on the total population to simulate the sampling process of generating routine HIV testing data. Epidemiological measures were estimated on the simulated epidemic and on the generated testing sample. Sensitivity analyses were conducted on the results.

Results

In the simulated epidemic, HIV prevalence saturated at 32% in the high-risk subpopulation and at 0.33% in the total population. The epidemic started its emerging-epidemic phase 28 years after infection introduction, and saturated 67 years after infection introduction. In the simulated HIV testing sample, a significant time trend in prevalence was identified, and the generated metrics of epidemic emergence and saturation were similar to those of the simulated epidemic. The epidemic was identified 4.0 (95% CI 3.4–4.6) years after epidemic emergence using routine HIV testing, but 29.7 (95% CI 15.8–52.1) years after emergence using AIDS case notifications. In the sensitivity analyses, none of the sampling biases affected the conclusion of an emerging epidemic, but some affected the estimated epidemic growth rate.

Conclusions

Routine HIV testing data provides a tool to identify and characterize hidden and emerging epidemics in high-risk subpopulations. This approach can be specially useful in resource-limited settings, and can be applied alone, or along with other complementary data, to provide a meaningful characterization of emerging but hidden epidemics.

Global population-level association between herpes simplex virus 2 prevalence and HIV prevalence

BACKGROUND

Our objective was to assess the population-level association between herpes simplex virus 2 (HSV-2) and HIV prevalence.

METHODS

Reports of HSV-2 and HIV prevalence were systematically reviewed and synthesized following PRISMA guidelines. Spearman rank correlation ((Equation is included in full-text article.)) was used to assess correlations. Risk ratios (RRHSV-2/HIV) and odds ratios (ORHSV-2/HIV) were used to assess HSV-2/HIV epidemiologic overlap. DerSimonian-Laird random-effects meta-analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

In total, 939 matched HSV-2/HIV prevalence measures were identified from 77 countries. HSV-2 prevalence was consistently higher than HIV prevalence. Strong HSV-2/HIV prevalence association was found for all data ((Equation is included in full-text article.) = 0.6, P < 0.001), all data excluding people who inject drugs (PWID) and children ((Equation is included in full-text article.) = 0.7, P < 0.001), female sex workers ((Equation is included in full-text article.) = 0.5, P < 0.001), and MSM ((Equation is included in full-text article.) = 0.7, P < 0.001). No association was found for PWID ((Equation is included in full-text article.) = 0.2, P = 0.222) and children ((Equation is included in full-text article.) = 0.3, P = 0.082). A threshold effect was apparent where HIV prevalence was limited at HSV-2 prevalence less than 20%, but grew steadily with HSV-2 prevalence for HSV-2 prevalence greater than 20%. The overall pooled mean RRHSV-2/HIV was 5.0 (95% CI 4.7-5.3) and ORHSV-2/HIV was 9.0 (95% CI 8.4-9.7). The RRHSV-2/HIV and ORHSV-2/HIV showed similar patterns that conveyed inferences about HSV-2 and HIV epidemiology.

CONCLUSION

HSV-2 and HIV prevalence are strongly associated. HSV-2 prevalence can be used as a proxy 'biomarker' of HIV epidemic potential, acting as a 'temperature scale' of the intensity of sexual risk behavior that drive HIV transmission. HSV-2 prevalence can be used to identify populations and/or sexual networks at high-risk of future HIV expansion, and help prioritization, optimization, and resource allocation of cost-effective prevention interventions.

Evaluation of Herpes Simplex Virus Type 2 Serological Tests for Use With Dried Blood Spots in Kenya

We evaluated 2 assays to detect antibodies to herpes simplex virus type 2 in dried blood spots prepared from blood specimens submitted to a reference laboratory in Kenya. Dried blood spots did not perform well with the Kalon herpes simplex virus type 2 assay. Focus HerpeSelect 2 was 98.8% sensitive and 98.9% specific with dried blood spots.

Nonpaternity and Half-Siblingships as Objective Measures of Extramarital Sex: Mathematical Modeling and Simulations

Background

Understanding the epidemiology of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs) requires knowledge of sexual behavior, but self-reported behavior has limitations. We explored the reliability and validity of nonpaternity and half-siblings ratios as biomarkers of current and past extramarital sex.

Methods

An individual-based Monte Carlo simulation model was constructed to describe partnering and conception in human populations with a focus on Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The model was parameterized with representative biological, behavioral, and demographic data.

Results

Nonpaternity and half-siblings ratios were strongly correlated with extramarital sex, with Pearson correlation coefficients (PCC) of 0.79 (95% CI: 0.71–0.86) and 0.77 (0.68–0.84), respectively. Age-specific nonpaternity ratios correlated with past extramarital sex at time of conception for different scenarios: for example, PCC, after smoothing by moving averages, was 0.75 (0.52–0.89) in a scenario of steadily decreasing nonmarital sex and 0.39 (0.01–0.73) in a scenario of transient drops in nonmarital sex. Simulations assuming self-reported levels of extramarital sex from Kenya yielded nonpaternity levels lower than global nonpaternity data, suggesting sizable underreporting of extramarital sex.

Conclusions

Nonpaternity and half-siblings ratios are useful objective measures of extramarital sex that avoid limitations in self-reported sexual behavior.

Sexual network drivers of HIV and herpes simplex virus type 2 transmission

OBJECTIVES

HIV and herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infections are sexually transmitted and propagate in sexual networks. Using mathematical modeling, we aimed to quantify effects of key network statistics on infection transmission, and extent to which HSV-2 prevalence can be a proxy of HIV prevalence.

DESIGN/METHODS

An individual-based simulation model was constructed to describe sex partnering and infection transmission, and was parameterized with representative natural history, transmission, and sexual behavior data. Correlations were assessed on model outcomes (HIV/HSV-2 prevalences) and multiple linear regressions were conducted to estimate adjusted associations and effect sizes.

RESULTS

HIV prevalence was one-third or less of HSV-2 prevalence. HIV and HSV-2 prevalences were associated with a Spearman's rank correlation coefficient of 0.64 (95% confidence interval: 0.58-0.69). Collinearities among network statistics were detected, most notably between concurrency versus mean and variance of number of partners. Controlling for confounding, unmarried mean/variance of number of partners (or alternatively concurrency) were the strongest predictors of HIV prevalence. Meanwhile, unmarried/married mean/variance of number of partners (or alternatively concurrency), and clustering coefficient were the strongest predictors of HSV-2 prevalence. HSV-2 prevalence was a strong predictor of HIV prevalence by proxying effects of network statistics.

CONCLUSION

Network statistics produced similar and differential effects on HIV/HSV-2 transmission, and explained most of the variation in HIV and HSV-2 prevalences. HIV prevalence reflected primarily mean and variance of number of partners, but HSV-2 prevalence was affected by a range of network statistics. HSV-2 prevalence (as a proxy) can forecast a population's HIV epidemic potential, thereby informing interventions.

Modelling infectious diseases with relapse: a case study of HSV-2

Background

Herpes Simplex Virus Type 2 (HSV-2) is one of the most common sexually transmitted diseases. Although there is still no licensed vaccine for HSV-2, a theoretical investigation of the potential effects of a vaccine is considered important and has recently been conducted by several researchers. Although compartmental mathematical models were considered for each special case in the previous studies, as yet there are few global stability results.

Results

In this paper, we formulate a multi-group SVIRI epidemic model for HSV-2, which enables us to consider the effects of vaccination, of waning vaccine immunity, and of infection relapse. Since the number of groups is arbitrary, our model can be applied to various structures such as risk, sex, and age group structures. For our model, we define the basic reproduction number ℜ₀ and prove that if ℜ₀≤1, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, whereas if ℜ₀>1, then the endemic equilibrium is so. Based on this global stability result, we estimate ℜ₀ for HSV-2 by applying our model to the risk group structure and using US data from 2001 to 2014. Through sensitivity analysis, we find that ℜ₀ is approximately in the range of 2-3. Moreover, using the estimated parameters, we discuss the optimal vaccination strategy for the eradication of HSV-2.

Conclusions

Through discussion of the optimal vaccination strategy, we come to the following conclusions. (1) Improving vaccine efficacy is more effective than increasing the number of vaccines. (2) Although the transmission risk in female individuals is higher than that in male individuals, distributing the available vaccines almost equally between female and male individuals is more effective than concentrating them within the female population.

Prevalence and Severity of Oral Diseases in the Africa and Middle East Region

This review aims to determine the prevalence and severity of oral health diseases in the Africa and Middle East region (AMER). The profile of oral diseases is not homogeneous across the AMER. There are large disparities between groups. Reliable data are scarce. The prevalence and severity of oral diseases appear to be increasing in the African region, as does associated morbidity. There are substantial differences in inequalities in oral health. Dental caries prevalence is less severe in most African countries than in developed countries, but the high rate of untreated caries reflects the limited resources available and difficulties of access and affordability to essential oral health care services. The prevalence of gingival inflammation is very high in all age groups in several African countries. The prevalence of maxillofacial trauma has increased in many countries, with a wide variation of the incidence and high prevalence of traumatic dental injuries in primary and permanent teeth. Orofacial clefts are among the most common birth defects. Annual incidence of oral cancer is estimated as 25 cases per 100,000 people in Africa. Noma is a major public health problem for the Middle East and North African (MENA) region. Data about human immunodeficiency virus/AIDS are limited, particularly in the MENA region. According to the World Health Organization Regional Committee for Africa report, some fundamental key basic knowledge gaps need to be underlined. They include inequalities in oral health, low priority for oral health, lack of adequate funding, inadequate dental student training, obstacles to medical and dental research, and poor databases. There are very few effective public prevention and oral health promotion programs in the AMER. Universal health coverage is not achievable without scientific research on the effectiveness of health promotion interventions.

Seroprevalence of Herpes Simplex Virus Type 1 and Type 2 and Coinfection With HIV and Syphilis: The First National Seroprevalence Survey in Saudi Arabia

BACKGROUND

Herpes simplex virus (HSV) infection is one of the most common viral infections worldwide. Genital herpes is associated with other sexually transmitted infections (STIs) including HIV. Data on prevalence of HSV infections and other STIs in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia are limited.

METHODS

We conducted the first national seroprevalence survey to determine the prevalence and epidemiology of HSV infection among adult Saudis and coinfection with other STIs. Serology was used to detect HSV-1, HSV-2, HIV, and syphilis infections among 4985 participants recruited from across the Kingdom.

RESULTS

The overall prevalence of HSV-1 and HSV-2 in the enrolled population was 88.8% and 1.26%, respectively. Although not significant for HSV-2, HSV infection was more prevalent among females, those working, and those who were married (married, divorced, or widowed), especially those married at a younger age. Prevalence of both viruses was statistically significantly higher among those with low education and increased with age. Prevalence of Treponema pallidum antibodies and HIV in the sampled population was very low (0.55% and 0.06%, respectively), as was their prevalence among HSV-2-positive participants (1.6% for both). The correlation between HSV-2 infection and other STIs was significant for HIV (P < 0.0001) but not for T. pallidum antibodies (P = 0.25).

CONCLUSIONS

Herpes simplex virus type 1 infection is highly prevalent in Saudi Arabia and mostly acquired before adulthood. Herpes simplex virus type 2 prevalence is very low, acquired in adulthood, and increased with age. Monitoring the prevalence of HSV infection can help inform targeted strategies to prevent new infections, neonatal transmission, and the spread of other STIs in the Kingdom.

Population sexual behavior and HIV prevalence in Sub-Saharan Africa: missing links?

OBJECTIVES

Patterns of sexual partnering should shape HIV transmission in human populations. The objective of this study was to assess empirical associations between population casual sex behavior and HIV prevalence, and between different measures of casual sex behavior.

METHODS

An ecological study design was applied to nationally representative data, those of the Demographic and Health Surveys, in 25 countries of Sub-Saharan Africa. Spearman rank correlation was used to assess different correlations for males and females and their statistical significance.

RESULTS

Correlations between HIV prevalence and means and variances of the number of casual sex partners were positive, but small and statistically insignificant. The majority of correlations across means and variances of the number of casual sex partners were positive, large, and statistically significant. However, all correlations between the means, as well as variances, and the variance of unmarried females were weak and statistically insignificant.

CONCLUSIONS

Population sexual behavior was not predictive of HIV prevalence across these countries. Nevertheless, the strong correlations across means and variances of sexual behavior suggest that self-reported sexual data are self-consistent and convey valid information content. Unmarried female behavior seemed puzzling, but could be playing an influential role in HIV transmission patterns.

Using hepatitis C prevalence to estimate HIV epidemic potential among people who inject drugs in the Middle East and North Africa

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study is to understand the association between HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) among people who inject drugs (PWIDs) in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), and to estimate HIV epidemic potential among PWIDs using HCV prevalence.

DESIGN/METHODS

Using data from a systematic review of HIV and HCV among PWID in MENA, we conducted two analyses, stratified by HIV epidemic state: a meta-analysis of the risk ratio of HCV to HIV prevalence (RRHCV/HIV) using DerSimonian-Laird random-effects models, and multivariable linear regression predicting log HIV prevalence. The HCV-HIV association from both analyses was used to estimate HIV prevalence at endemic equilibrium. We compared predicted with current HIV prevalence to classify HIV epidemic potential at country-level as low, medium or high, using predefined criteria.

RESULTS

The review identified 88 HCV prevalence measures among PWID in MENA, of which 54 had a paired HIV prevalence measure. The pooled RRHCV/HIV were 16, 4 and 3 in low-level, emerging and established HIV epidemics, respectively. There was a significant linear relationship between HCV and HIV at endemic equilibrium (P = 0.002). The predicted endemic HIV prevalence ranged between 8% (Tunisia) and 22% (Pakistan). Of the nine countries with data, five have high and three medium HIV epidemic potential. Only one country, Pakistan, appears to have reached saturation.

CONCLUSION

HCV prevalence could be a predictor of future endemic HIV prevalence. In MENA, we predict that there will be further HIV epidemic growth among PWID. The proposed methodology can identify PWID populations that should be prioritized for HIV prevention interventions.

EFFECTS OF TREATMENT, AWARENESS AND CONDOM USE IN A COINFECTION MODEL FOR HIV AND HCV IN MSM

We develop a new a coinfection model for hepatitis C virus (HCV) and the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). We consider treatment for both diseases, screening, unawareness and awareness of HIV infection, and the use of condoms. We study the local stability of the disease-free equilibria for the full model and for the two submodels (HCV only and HIV only submodels). We sketch bifurcation diagrams for different parameters, such as the probabilities that a contact will result in a HIV or an HCV infection. We present numerical simulations of the full model where the HIV, HCV and double endemic equilibria can be observed. We also show numerically the qualitative changes of the dynamical behavior of the full model for variation of relevant parameters. We extrapolate the results from the model for actual measures that could be implemented in order to reduce the number of infected individuals.

A model for the coupled disease dynamics of HIV and HSV-2 with mixing among and between genders

Evidence indicates that those with genital herpes (HSV-2) infections have greater risks of infection by HIV; and, once co-infected, are more likely to transmit HIV. To better understand the interactions between HIV and HSV-2, we construct a mathematical model that describes the joint dynamics. A new feature of this model is the inclusion of both heterosexual and homosexual interactions. We derive and interpret the basic and invasion reproduction numbers for HIV and HSV-2 using the approach of next-generation matrices. We then perform scenario analyses and conduct a sensitivity analysis to investigate the impact of the model parameters on the reproduction numbers and disease prevalences. We conclude that homosexual transmission drastically changes the disease prevalences; hence, it is important to account for this interaction as models that ignore homosexuality may greatly underestimate the disease burden.

Dynamics of non-cohabiting sex partnering in sub-Saharan Africa: a modelling study with implications for HIV transmission

Objective

To develop an analytical understanding of non-cohabiting sex partnering in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) using nationally representative sexual behaviour data.

Method

A non-homogenous Poisson stochastic process model was used to describe the dynamics of non-cohabiting sex. The model was applied to 25 countries in SSA and was fitted to Demographic and Health Survey data. The country-specific mean values and variances of the distributions of number of non-cohabiting partners were estimated.

Results

The model yielded overall robust fits to the empirical distributions stratified by marital status and sex. The median across all country-specific mean values was highest for unmarried men at 0.574 non-cohabiting partners over the last 12 months, followed by that of unmarried women at 0.337, married men at 0.192 and married women at 0.038. The median of variances was highest for unmarried men at 0.127, followed by married men at 0.057, unmarried women at 0.003 and married women at 0.000. The largest variability in mean values across countries was for unmarried men (0.103–1.206), and the largest variability in variances was among unmarried women (0.000–1.994).

Conclusions

Non-cohabiting sex appears to be a random ‘opportunistic’ phenomenon linked to situations that may facilitate it. The mean values and variances of number of partners in SSA show wide variation by country, marital status and sex. Unmarried individuals have larger mean values than their married counterparts, and men have larger mean values than women. Unmarried individuals appear to play a disproportionate role in driving heterogeneity in sexual networks and possibly epidemiology of sexually transmitted infections.

Global estimates of prevalent and incident herpes simplex virus type 2 infections in 2012

Background

Herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infection causes significant disease globally. Adolescent and adult infection may present as painful genital ulcers. Neonatal infection has high morbidity and mortality. Additionally, HSV-2 likely contributes substantially to the spread of HIV infection. The global burden of HSV-2 infection was last estimated for 2003. Here we present new global estimates for 2012 of the burden of prevalent (existing) and incident (new) HSV-2 infection among females and males aged 15–49 years, using updated methodology to adjust for test performance and estimate by World Health Organization (WHO) region.

Methods and Findings

We conducted a literature review of HSV-2 prevalence studies world-wide since 2000. We then fitted a model with constant HSV-2 incidence by age to pooled HSV-2 prevalence values by age and sex. Prevalence values were adjusted for test sensitivity and specificity. The model estimated prevalence and incidence by sex for each WHO region to obtain global burden estimates. Uncertainty bounds were computed by refitting the model to reflect the variation in the underlying prevalence data. In 2012, we estimate that there were 417 million people aged 15–49 years (range: 274–678 million) living with HSV-2 infection world-wide (11.3% global prevalence), of whom 267 million were women. We also estimate that in 2012, 19.2 million (range: 13.0–28.6 million) individuals aged 15–49 years were newly-infected (0.5% of all individuals globally). The highest burden was in Africa. However, despite lower prevalence, South-East Asia and Western Pacific regions also contributed large numbers to the global totals because of large population sizes.

Conclusions

The global burden of HSV-2 infection is large, leaving over 400 million people at increased risk of genital ulcer disease, HIV acquisition, and transmission of HSV-2 to partners or neonates. These estimates highlight the critical need for development of vaccines, microbicides, and other new HSV prevention strategies.

Herpes simplex virus type 2 among mobile pastoralists in northwestern Namibia

BACKGROUND

Although herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) epidemiology has been described for many western and/or urban populations, disease burden has not been characterized for remote, non-western, under treated populations, where patterns of risk and vulnerability may be very different.

AIMS

To understand demographic, behavioural and geographic influences on risk for HSV-2 in a population of mobile, rural pastoralists in northwestern Namibia.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

The authors conducted a cross-sectional survey of reproductively aged adults (n = 445) across 28 villages in Kaokoveld, Namibia. All participants completed a questionnaire of demographic data, ecological interactions and sexual behaviour, and a rapid test specific for HSV-2.

RESULTS

HSV-2 status was significantly associated with being female (OR = 3.1, 95% CI = 2.00, 4.71), increasing age (men: OR = 7.5, 95% CI = 2.67, 20.85; women: OR = 6.2, 95% CI = 2.48, 15.50) and with higher wealth among men (OR = 5.1, 95% CI = 1.98, 13.09).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher risk among women can be explained, in part, by local hygiene practices and a preference for "dry" sex. There was considerable variation in prevalence by region, which appears to be linked to geographic remoteness. Culturally contextualized epidemiologic studies of remote, vulnerable populations can provide essential information for limiting the introduction and spread of new infections.

'Gay bowel syndrome': relic or real (and returning) phenomenon?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

This article aims to review the term 'gay bowel syndrome', including the recent research looking at increased rates of bowel infections in men who have sex with men (MSM), particularly in light of the recent Shigella outbreaks in MSM in London and New York, and considers whether 'gay bowel syndrome' is a syndrome that really exists and is worthy of further research and specific treatment, or whether the term continues to be obsolete and not useful.

RECENT FINDINGS

Little or no recent research exists around the concept of a specific syndrome affecting the bowels of MSM. Rather, there seems to be a clustering of diseases in certain high-risk groups, especially those in urban areas with multiple sexual partners, recreational drug use, and possible concomitant HIV infection.

SUMMARY

All healthcare practitioners (including non-sexual health/HIV specialists) need to consider careful and thorough history taking (including sexual history) to identify those at risk.

The epidemiology of HIV infection in Morocco: systematic review and data synthesis

Morocco has made significant strides in building its HIV research capacity. Based on a wealth of empirical data, the objective of this study was to conduct a comprehensive and systematic literature review and analytical synthesis of HIV epidemiological evidence in this country. Data were retrieved using three major sources of literature and data. HIV transmission dynamics were found to be focused in high-risk populations, with female sex workers (FSWs) and clients contributing the largest share of new HIV infections. There is a pattern of emerging epidemics among some high-risk populations, and some epidemics, particularly among FSWs, appear to be established and stable. The scale of the local HIV epidemics and populations affected show highly heterogeneous geographical distribution. To optimize the national HIV response, surveillance and prevention efforts need to be expanded among high-risk populations and in geographic settings where low intensity and possibly concentrated HIV epidemics are emerging or are already endemic.

Is the HCV-HIV co-infection prevalence amongst injecting drug users a marker for the level of sexual and injection related HIV transmission?

BACKGROUND

Amongst injecting drug users (IDUs), HIV is transmitted sexually and parenterally, but HCV is transmitted primarily parenterally. We assess and model the antibody prevalence of HCV amongst HIV-infected IDUs (denoted as HCV-HIV co-infection prevalence) and consider whether it proxies the degree of sexual HIV transmission amongst IDUs.

METHODS

HIV, HCV and HCV-HIV co-infection prevalence data amongst IDU was reviewed. An HIV/HCV transmission model was adapted. Multivariate model uncertainty analyses determined whether the model's ability to replicate observed data trends required the inclusion of sexual HIV transmission. The correlation between the model's HCV-HIV co-infection prevalence and estimated proportion of HIV infections due to injecting was evaluated.

RESULTS

The median HCV-HIV co-infection prevalence (prevalence of HCV amongst HIV-infected IDUs) was 90% across 195 estimates from 43 countries. High HCV-HIV co-infection prevalences (>80%) occur in most (75%) settings, but can be lower in settings with low HIV prevalence (<10%) or high HIV/HCV prevalence ratios (HIV prevalence divided by HCV prevalence>0.75). The model without sexual HIV transmission reproduced some data trends but could not reproduce any epidemics with high HIV/HCV prevalence ratios (>0.85) or low HCV-HIV co-infection prevalence (<60%) when HIV prevalence>10%. The model with sexual HIV transmission reproduced data trends more closely. The proportion of HIV infections due to injecting correlated with HCV-HIV co-infection prevalence; suggesting that up to 80/60/<20% of HIV infections could be sexually transmitted in settings with HCV-HIV co-infection prevalence between 50-60/70-80/>90%.

CONCLUSION

Substantial sexual HIV transmission may occur in many IDU populations; HCV-HIV co-infection prevalence could signify its importance.

Determinants of generalized herpes simplex virus-2 epidemics: the role of sexual partner concurrency

Little is known as to why some populations develop generalized herpes simplex virus 2 (HSV-2) epidemics. Sexual network-level factors, such as the proportion of partnerships that run concurrently, are plausible explanations. In this ecological analysis, we used Spearman's correlation coefficients to assess if there is an association between population prevalence of point-concurrency and HSV-2 in a number of national and subnational populations. We found that there is an association between prevalence of point-concurrency and female HSV-2 prevalence between different countries (Spearman's rho = 0.715; P = 0.020), and within different races and ethnic groups within countries. In addition, there was a strong association between peak HIV and HSV-2 prevalence in 40-44-year-old women at an international level (Spearman's rho = 0.720; P = 0.0001). This could be indicative of populations with high HIV and HSV-2 prevalence rates having extensively connected sexual networks which puts them at increased risk of spread by both these sexually transmitted infections (STIs). No country with an HSV-2 prevalence of under 20% in their 20-24-year-old women had a generalized HIV epidemic. Thus, HSV-2 prevalence in adolescents may be a useful marker of how risky a local sexual network is for STI spread and may provide a useful early indicator of the success or failure of behavior change initiatives.

Characterising the progress in HIV/AIDS research in the Middle East and North Africa

Objectives

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is perceived to have limited HIV data. The objective of this study was to quantitatively characterise the progress in HIV research in this region since the discovery of the epidemic.

Methods

Four indices were defined and implemented to measure the progress of HIV research using the PubMed, Embase, MENA HIV/AIDS Epidemiology Synthesis Project and US Census Bureau HIV/AIDS Surveillance databases. The four indices provide complementary measures to characterise different aspects of the progress of HIV research.

Results

A total of 2118, 2352, 683 and 4889 records were identified through the PubMed, the Embase, the Synthesis Project and the HIV Prevalence indices, respectively. The proportion of the total global HIV records that relate to MENA is 1.2%. Overall, the indices show steady progress in the number of new records every year, with an accelerated pace in the last few years. The rate of progress in MENA was also higher than the rate of progress in HIV records globally. There is no evidence so far of stabilisation or a peak in the number of new records year by year. About half of the records were produced after the year 2005. The number of records shows large heterogeneity across countries.

Conclusions

MENA has witnessed a rapid growth in HIV research over the last decade. However, there are still large gaps in HIV scientific evidence in the region, and the progress is far from being uniform across countries. Ongoing and future research needs to be geared towards academic standard and production of scientific publications.

The distribution of new HIV infections by mode of exposure in Morocco

Objectives

Building on a wealth of new empirical data, the objective of this study was to estimate the distribution of new HIV infections in Morocco by mode of exposure using the modes of transmission (MoT) mathematical model.

Methods

The MoT model was implemented within a collaboration with the Morocco Ministry of Health and the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS. The model was parameterised through a comprehensive review and synthesis of HIV and risk behaviour data in Morocco, mainly through the Middle East and North Africa HIV/AIDS Synthesis Project. Uncertainty analyses were used to assess the reliability of and uncertainty around our calculated estimates.

Results

Female sex workers (FSWs), clients of FSWs, men who have sex with men (MSM) and injecting drug users (IDUs) contributed 14%, 24%, 14% and 7% of new HIV infections, respectively. Two-thirds (67%) of new HIV infections occurred among FSWs, clients of FSWs, MSM and IDUs, or among the stable sexual partners of these populations. Casual heterosexual sex contributed 7% of HIV infections. More than half (52%) of HIV incidence is among females, but 71% of these infections are due to an infected spouse. The vast majority of HIV infections among men (89%) are due to high-risk behaviour. A very small HIV incidence is predicted to arise from medical injections or blood transfusions (0.1%).

Conclusions

The HIV epidemic in Morocco is driven by HIV incidence in high-risk population groups, with commercial heterosexual sex being the largest contributor to incidence. There is a need to focus HIV response more on these populations, mainly through proactive and sustainable HIV surveillance, and the expansion and increased geographical coverage of services such as condom promotion among FSWs, voluntary counselling and testing, harm reduction and treatment.

HIV, HSV2 and Syphilis Prevalence in Female Sex Workers in Kerman, South-East Iran; Using Respondent-Driven Sampling

BACKGROUND

We estimated the prevalence of HIV, sexually transmitted infections (STIs), and risky behaviors among female sex workers (FSW) in Kerman City, Iran.

METHODS

Women, 18 years or older, who reported selling sex for at least 6 months during their lifetime and had at least one sexual contact with a client in the recent 12 months were sampled using Responding Driven Sampling (RDS). Participants were interviewed about their sexual behaviors and provided whole blood for HIV, syphilis, and Herpes simplex type 2 (HSV2) testing. Data were analyzed using RDSAT Version 6.0 software.

RESULTS

Among samples of 177 FSW, we did not find any HIV positive cases. The weighted prevalence of syphilis and HSV2 were 7.2% and 18.0%, respectively. The reported STI syndromes for the proceeding year of the survey were 36%. Unprotected sexual contact was about 17-22% and link to injecting drug users through injection was about 18%.

CONCLUSION

While this survey found no HIV, there were findings of risky sexual behaviors and STI, markers for potential infection for HIV. The prevalence of STI and sexual risk behaviors for HIV is considerably high in this subpopulation that alarming for an urgent public health preventive measures and national control-plan to be developed and implemented.

Infectious co-factors in HIV-1 transmission herpes simplex virus type-2 and HIV-1: new insights and interventions

Over the last thirty years, epidemiologic and molecular studies indicate a strong and synergist relationship between the dual epidemics of herpes simplex type 2 (HSV-2) and HIV-1 infection. While prospective studies show that HSV-2 infection increases the risk for HIV-1 acquisition by 2- to 3-fold, HSV-2 suppression with standard prophylactic doses of HSV-2 therapy did not prevent HIV-1 acquisition. Reconciling these discrepancies requires understanding recent HSV-2 pathogenesis research, which indicates HSV-2 infection is not a latent infection with infrequent recurrence but a near constant state of reactivation and viral shedding which is not completely suppressed by standard antivirals. Because current antivirals do not prevent or fully suppress HSV-2 replication, priorities are HSV-2 vaccine development and antivirals that reach high concentrations in the genital mucosa and suppress the persistent genital inflammation associated with genital herpes reactivation in order to reduce the increased susceptibility to HIV-1 infection associated with HSV-2. HIV-1 and HSV-2 synergy is also seen among co-infected individuals who exhibit higher HIV-1 viral load compared to HSV-2 uninfected individuals. Standard HSV-2 therapy modestly lowers HIV-1 viral load and is associated with slower HIV-1 disease progression. A promising area of research is higher doses of HSV-2 suppressive therapy achieving a greater reduction in plasma HIV-1 RNA, which could translate to greater reductions in HIV-1 disease progression and infectiousness. However, many questions remain to be answered including potential effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of higher dose HSV-2 suppressive therapy. Mathematical models of HSV-2 and HIV-1 at a population level would be useful tools to estimate the potential impact and cost-effectiveness of higher dose HSV-2 suppressive therapy.