Impacts of K-12 school reopening on the COVID-19 epidemic in Indiana, USA

COVID-19 Mitigation in a K-12 School Setting: A Case Study of Avenues: The World School in New York City

In this case study, we describe a well-resourced private school in New York City that implemented COVID-19 mitigation measures based on public health expert guidance and the lessons learned from this process. Avenues opened in New York City in 2012 and has since expanded, becoming Avenues: The World School, with campuses in São Paulo, Brazil; Shenzhen, China; the Silicon Valley, California; and online. It offers education at 16 grade levels: 2 early learning years, followed by a prekindergarten through grade 12. We describe the mitigation measures that Avenues implemented on its New York campus. We compare COVID-19 case prevalence at the school with COVID-19 case positivity in New York City, as reported by the New York State Department of Health. We also compare the school's indoor air quality to ambient indoor air quality measures reported in the literature. The school's mitigation measures successfully reduced the prevalence of COVID-19 among its students, staff, and faculty. The school also established a consistently high level of indoor air quality safety through various ventilation mechanisms, designed to reduce common indoor air pollutants. The school received positive parent and community feedback on the policies and procedures it established, with many parents commenting on the high level of trust and quality of communication established by the school. The successful reopening provides useful data for school closure and reopening standards to prepare for future pandemic and epidemic events.

School Nutrition Stakeholders Find Utility in MealSim: An Agent-Based Model

OBJECTIVE

To obtain feedback from school nutrition stakeholders on an agent-based model simulating school lunch to inform model refinement and future applications.

DESIGN

Qualitative study using online discussion groups.

SETTING

School nutrition professional stakeholders across the US.

PARTICIPANTS

Twenty-eight school nutrition stakeholders.

PHENOMENON OF INTEREST

Perceptions and applicability of MealSim for school nutrition stakeholders to help reduce food waste.

ANALYSIS

Deductive approach followed by inductive analysis of discussion group transcripts.

RESULTS

Stakeholders appreciated the customizability of the cafeteria characteristics and suggested adding additional characteristics to best represent the school meal system, such as factors relating to school staff supervision of students during meals. The perceived utility of MealSim was high and included using it to train personnel and to advocate for policy and budgetary changes. However, they viewed MealSim as more representative of elementary than high schools. Stakeholders also provided suggestions for training school nutrition administrators on how to use MealSim and requested opportunities for technical assistance.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

Although agent-based models were new to the school nutrition stakeholders, MealSim was viewed as a useful tool. Application of these findings will allow the model to meet the intended audience's needs and better estimate the system.

Effectiveness of social distancing measures and lockdowns for reducing transmission of COVID-19 in non-healthcare, community-based settings

Social distancing measures (SDMs) are community-level interventions that aim to reduce person-to-person contacts in the community. SDMs were a major part of the responses first to contain, then to mitigate, the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the community. Common SDMs included limiting the size of gatherings, closing schools and/or workplaces, implementing work-from-home arrangements, or more stringent restrictions such as lockdowns. This systematic review summarized the evidence for the effectiveness of nine SDMs. Almost all of the studies included were observational in nature, which meant that there were intrinsic risks of bias that could have been avoided were conditions randomly assigned to study participants. There were no instances where only one form of SDM had been in place in a particular setting during the study period, making it challenging to estimate the separate effect of each intervention. The more stringent SDMs such as stay-at-home orders, restrictions on mass gatherings and closures were estimated to be most effective at reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Most studies included in this review suggested that combinations of SDMs successfully slowed or even stopped SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the community. However, individual effects and optimal combinations of interventions, as well as the optimal timing for particular measures, require further investigation. This article is part of the theme issue 'The effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the COVID-19 pandemic: the evidence'.

Assessing K-12 school reopenings under different COVID-19 Spread scenarios - United States, school year 2020/21: A retrospective modeling study

INTRODUCTION

School-age children play a key role in the spread of airborne viruses like influenza due to the prolonged and close contacts they have in school settings. As a result, school closures and other non-pharmaceutical interventions were recommended as the first line of defense in response to the novel coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19).

METHODS

We used an agent-based model that simulates communities across the United States including daycares, primary, and secondary schools to quantify the relative health outcomes of reopening schools for the period of August 15, 2020 to April 11, 2021. Our simulation was carried out in early September 2020 and was based on the latest (at the time) Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)'s Pandemic Planning Scenarios released in May 2020. We explored different reopening scenarios including virtual learning, in-person school, and several hybrid options that stratify the student population into cohorts in order to reduce exposure and pathogen spread.

RESULTS

Scenarios where cohorts of students return to school in non-overlapping formats, which we refer to as hybrid scenarios, resulted in significant decreases in the percentage of symptomatic individuals with COVID-19, by as much as 75%. These hybrid scenarios have only slightly more negative health impacts of COVID-19 compared to implementing a 100% virtual learning scenario. Hybrid scenarios can significantly avert the number of COVID-19 cases at the national scale-approximately between 28 M and 60 M depending on the scenario-over the simulated eight-month period. We found the results of our simulations to be highly dependent on the number of workplaces assumed to be open for in-person business, as well as the initial level of COVID-19 incidence within the simulated community.

CONCLUSION

In an evolving pandemic, while a large proportion of people remain susceptible, reducing the number of students attending school leads to better health outcomes; part-time in-classroom education substantially reduces health risks.

Using simulation modelling and systems science to help contain COVID-19: A systematic review

This study systematically reviews applications of three simulation approaches, that is, system dynamics model (SDM), agent-based model (ABM) and discrete event simulation (DES), and their hybrids in COVID-19 research and identifies theoretical and application innovations in public health. Among the 372 eligible papers, 72 focused on COVID-19 transmission dynamics, 204 evaluated both pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions, 29 focused on the prediction of the pandemic and 67 investigated the impacts of COVID-19. ABM was used in 275 papers, followed by 54 SDM papers, 32 DES papers and 11 hybrid model papers. Evaluation and design of intervention scenarios are the most widely addressed area accounting for 55% of the four main categories, that is, the transmission of COVID-19, prediction of the pandemic, evaluation and design of intervention scenarios and societal impact assessment. The complexities in impact evaluation and intervention design demand hybrid simulation models that can simultaneously capture micro and macro aspects of the socio-economic systems involved.

SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Potential and Policy Changes in South Carolina, February 2020 - January 2021

INTRODUCTION

We aimed to examine how public health policies influenced the dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) time-varying reproductive number (R t ) in South Carolina from February 26, 2020, to January 1, 2021.

METHODS

COVID-19 case series (March 6, 2020, to January 10, 2021) were shifted by 9 d to approximate the infection date. We analyzed the effects of state and county policies on R t using EpiEstim. We performed linear regression to evaluate if per-capita cumulative case count varies across counties with different population size.

RESULTS

R t shifted from 2-3 in March to <1 during April and May. R t rose over the summer and stayed between 1.4 and 0.7. The introduction of statewide mask mandates was associated with a decline in R t (-15.3%; 95% CrI, -13.6%, -16.8%), and school re-opening, an increase by 12.3% (95% CrI, 10.1%, 14.4%). Less densely populated counties had higher attack rates (P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

The R t dynamics over time indicated that public health interventions substantially slowed COVID-19 transmission in South Carolina, while their relaxation may have promoted further transmission. Policies encouraging people to stay home, such as closing nonessential businesses, were associated with R t reduction, while policies that encouraged more movement, such as re-opening schools, were associated with R t increase.

Model-based evaluation of alternative reactive class closure strategies against COVID-19

There are contrasting results concerning the effect of reactive school closure on SARS-CoV-2 transmission. To shed light on this controversy, we developed a data-driven computational model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We found that by reactively closing classes based on syndromic surveillance, SARS-CoV-2 infections are reduced by no more than 17.3% (95%CI: 8.0-26.8%), due to the low probability of timely identification of infections in the young population. We thus investigated an alternative triggering mechanism based on repeated screening of students using antigen tests. Depending on the contribution of schools to transmission, this strategy can greatly reduce COVID-19 burden even when school contribution to transmission and immunity in the population is low. Moving forward, the adoption of antigen-based screenings in schools could be instrumental to limit COVID-19 burden while vaccines continue to be rolled out.

The impact of school opening model on SARS-CoV-2 community incidence and mortality

The role that traditional and hybrid in-person schooling modes contribute to the community incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections relative to fully remote schooling is unknown. We conducted an event study using a retrospective nationwide cohort evaluating the effect of school mode on SARS-CoV-2 cases during the 12 weeks after school opening (July-September 2020, before the Delta variant was predominant), stratified by US Census region. After controlling for case rate trends before school start, state-level mitigation measures and community activity level, SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates were not statistically different in counties with in-person learning versus remote school modes in most regions of the United States. In the South, there was a significant and sustained increase in cases per week among counties that opened in a hybrid or traditional mode versus remote, with weekly effects ranging from 9.8 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.7-16.1) to 21.3 (95% CI = 9.9-32.7) additional cases per 100,000 persons, driven by increasing cases among 0-9 year olds and adults. Schools can reopen for in-person learning without substantially increasing community case rates of SARS-CoV-2; however, the impacts are variable. Additional studies are needed to elucidate the underlying reasons for the observed regional differences more fully.

A multi-tiered systems of support blueprint for re-opening schools following COVID-19 shutdown

The COVID-19 pandemic will create enormous disruptions for youth and families with respect to economic and health status, social relationships, and education for years to come. The process of closing and intermittently reopening schools adds to this disruption and creates confusion for parents and school officials who must balance student educational progress with health and safety concerns. One framework that may serve as a roadmap in this regard is a multi-tiered systems of support (MTSS) model. This article briefly addresses four main domains of functioning (adjustment, traumatic stress, academic status, health and safety) across three tiers of support (universal, targeted, intensive). Each section draws on existing literature bases to provide specific recommendations for school officials who must address various and changing logistical, academic, and health-based challenges. The recommendations are designed to be flexible given fluctuations in the current crisis as well as focused on maximum-value targets. An MTSS approach adapted for contemporary circumstances can also be used to help address longstanding disparities that have been laid bare by the pandemic.