Time trends in the prevalence of cancer and non-cancer diseases among older U.S. adults: Medicare-based analysis

Burden of Illness in People with Alzheimer's Disease: A Systematic Review of Epidemiology, Comorbidities and Mortality

BACKGROUND

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is the most common neurodegenerative disease worldwide, and an updated quantification of its impact on morbidity, disability, and mortality is warranted. We conducted a systematic literature review, focusing on the past decade, to characterize AD and assess its impact on affected individuals.

METHODS

Searches of Embase, MEDLINE, and the Cochrane Library were conducted on August 7, 2020 and updated on November 10, 2021. Observational studies from any country reporting incidence, prevalence, comorbidities, and/or outcomes related to disability and mortality/life expectancy, in people with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) due to AD, or mild, moderate, or severe AD dementia, were considered relevant.

RESULTS

Data were extracted from 88 studies (46 incidence/prevalence; 44 comorbidities; 25 mortality-/disability-related outcomes), mostly from Europe, the USA, and Asia. AD dementia diagnosis was confirmed using biomarkers in only 6 studies. Estimated 5-year mortality in AD was 35%, and comorbidity prevalence estimates varied widely (hypertension: 30.2-73.9%; diabetes: 6.0-24.3%; stroke: 2.7-13.7%). Overall, people with AD dementia were more likely to have cardiovascular disease or diabetes than controls, and 5-year mortality in people with AD dementia was double that in the age- and year-matched general population (115.0 vs 60.6 per 1,000 person-years).

CONCLUSIONS

AD is associated with excess morbidity and mortality. Future longitudinal studies of population aging, incorporating biomarker assessment to confirm AD diagnoses, are needed to better characterize the course of MCI due to AD and AD dementia.

Looking for appropriateness in follow-up CT of oncologic patients: Results from a cross-sectional study

PURPOSE

The objective of this study was to assess the inappropriateness rate of oncological follow-up CT examinations.

METHODS

Out of 7.000 oncology patients referred for follow-up CT examinations between March and October 2022, a random sample of 10 % was included. Radiology residents assessed the appropriateness using the Italian Society of Medical Oncology (AIOM) guidelines, supervised by senior radiologists. Association between inappropriateness and clinical variables was investigated and variables influencing inappropriateness were analyzed through a binary logistic regression.

RESULTS

Three-hundred-eighty-eight examinations (56.1 %) were consistent with AIOM guidelines. An additional 100 (14.5  %) examinations did not follow the recommended schedule but were nevertheless considered appropriate because of suspected recurrence/progression (10.7 %) or adverse event requiring imaging assessment (3.8 %). Two-hundred-four (29.4 %) examinations were rated as inappropriate. Inappropriateness causes were as follows: CT not included in the relevant guideline (n = 47); CT extended to additional anatomical regions (n = 59); CT requested at a shorter time-interval (n = 98). No statistically significant difference was found in age, sex, scan region, and primary cancer between appropriate and inappropriate examinations. The only variable significantly associated with inappropriateness was being referred by a specific hospital unit named "unit 2" in the study (p = 0.009), which was demonstrated to be the only appropriateness independent predictor (OR 1.952).

CONCLUSION

This study shows that majority of oncological patients referred for follow-up CT follows standard guidelines. However, a non-negligible proportion was rated as inappropriate, mainly due to the shorter time-interval. No clinical variable was associated with inappropriateness, except for referral by a specific hospital unit.

Associations of Change in Body Size With All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality Among Healthy Older Adults

Importance

The association between weight change and subsequent cause-specific mortality among older adults is not well described. The significance of changes in waist circumference (WC) has also not been compared with weight change for this purpose.

Objective

To examine the associations of changes in body weight and WC with all-cause and cause-specific mortality.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study is a post hoc analysis of data from the Aspirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) randomized clinical trial, which recruited participants between March 1, 2010, and December 31, 2014. The study included community-based older adults (16 703 Australian participants aged ≥70 years and 2411 US participants aged ≥65 years) without evident cardiovascular disease (CVD), dementia, physical disability, or life-limiting chronic illness. Data analysis was performed from April to September 2022.

Exposures

Body weight and WC were measured at baseline and at annual visit 2. Analysis models were adjusted for baseline body mass index because height and weight were measured at baseline, allowing for calculation of body mass index and other variables. Both body weight and WC changes were categorized as change within 5% (stable), decrease by 5% to 10%, decrease by more than 10%, increase by 5% to 10%, and increase by more than 10%.

Main Outcomes and Measures

All-cause, cancer-specific, CVD-specific, and noncancer non-CVD-specific mortality. Mortality events were adjudicated by an expert review panel. Cox proportional hazards regression and competing risk analyses were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs.

Results

Among 16 523 participants (mean [SD] age, 75.0 [4.3] years; 9193 women [55.6%]), 1256 deaths were observed over a mean (SD) of 4.4 (1.7) years. Compared with men with stable weight, those with a 5% to 10% weight loss had a 33% higher (HR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.07-1.66) risk of all-cause mortality, and those with more than a 10% decrease in body weight had a 289% higher (HR, 3.89; 95% CI, 2.93-5.18) risk. Compared with women with stable weight, those with a 5% to 10% weight loss had a 26% higher (HR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.00-1.60) risk of all-cause mortality, and those with more than a 10% decrease in body weight had a 114% higher (HR, 2.14; 95% CI, 1.58-2.91) risk. Weight loss was associated with a higher cancer-specific mortality (>10% decrease among men: HR, 3.49; 95% CI, 2.26-5.40; 5%-10% decrease among women: HR, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.46-2.04; >10% decrease among women: HR, 2.78; 95% CI, 1.82-4.26), CVD-specific mortality (>10% decrease among men: HR, 3.14; 95% CI, 1.63-6.04; >10% decrease among women: HR, 1.92; 95% CI, 1.05-3.51), and noncancer non-CVD-specific mortality (>10% decrease among men: HR, 4.98; 95% CI, 3.14-7.91). A decrease in WC was also associated with mortality.

Conclusions and Relevance

This cohort study of healthy older adults suggests that weight loss was associated with an increase in all-cause and cause-specific mortality, including an increased risk of cancer, CVD, and other life-limiting conditions. Physicians should be aware of the significance of weight loss, especially among older men.

Understanding Alzheimer's disease in the context of aging: Findings from applications of stochastic process models to the Health and Retirement Study

There is growing literature on applications of biodemographic models, including stochastic process models (SPM), to studying regularities of age dynamics of biological variables in relation to aging and disease development. Alzheimer's disease (AD) is especially good candidate for SPM applications because age is a major risk factor for this heterogeneous complex trait. However, such applications are largely lacking. This paper starts filling this gap and applies SPM to data on onset of AD and longitudinal trajectories of body mass index (BMI) constructed from the Health and Retirement Study surveys and Medicare-linked data. We found that APOE e4 carriers are less robust to deviations of trajectories of BMI from the optimal levels compared to non-carriers. We also observed age-related decline in adaptive response (resilience) related to deviations of BMI from optimal levels as well as APOE- and age-dependence in other components related to variability of BMI around the mean allostatic values and accumulation of allostatic load. SPM applications thus allow revealing novel connections between age, genetic factors and longitudinal trajectories of risk factors in the context of AD and aging creating new opportunities for understanding AD development, forecasting trends in AD incidence and prevalence in populations, and studying disparities in those.

Time trends in depression prevalence among Swedish 85-year-olds: repeated cross-sectional population-based studies in 1986, 2008, and 2015

BACKGROUND

Octogenarians of today are better educated, and physically and cognitively healthier, than earlier born cohorts. Less is known about time trends in mental health in this age group. We aimed to study time trends in the prevalence of depression and psychotropic drug use among Swedish 85-year-olds.

METHODS

We derived data from interviews with 85-year-olds in 1986-1987 (N = 348), 2008-2010 (N = 433) and 2015-17 (N = 321). Depression diagnoses were made according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders. Symptom burden was assessed with the Montgomery-Åsberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS). Information on psychotropic drug use, sociodemographic, and health-related factors were collected during the interviews.

RESULTS

The prevalence of major depression was lower in 2015-2017 (4.7%, p < 0.001) and 2008-2010 (6.9%, p = 0.010) compared to 1986-1987 (12.4%). The prevalence of minor depression was lower in 2015-2017 (8.1%) compared to 2008-2010 (16.2%, p = 0.001) and 1986-1987 (17.8%, p < 0.001). Mean MADRS score decreased from 8.0 in 1986-1987 to 6.5 in 2008-2010, and 5.1 in 2015-2017 (p < 0.001). The reduced prevalence of depression was not explained by changes in sociodemographic and health-related risk factors for depression. While psychoactive drug use was observed in a third of the participants in each cohort, drug type changed over time (increased use of antidepressants and decreased use of anxiolytics and antipsychotics).

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of depression in octogenarians has declined during the past decades. The decline was not explained by changes in known risk factors for depression. The present study cannot answer whether changed prescription patterns of psychoactive drugs have contributed to the decline.

An Alternative Explanation for Alzheimer's Disease and Parkinson's Disease Initiation from Specific Antibiotics, Gut Microbiota Dysbiosis and Neurotoxins

The late onset neuropathologies, including Alzheimer's disease and Parkinson's disease, have become increasingly prevalent. Their causation has been linked to genetics, gut microbiota dysbiosis (gut dysbiosis), autoimmune diseases, pathogens and exposures to neurotoxins. An alternative explanatory hypothesis is provided for their pathogenesis. Virtually everyone has pervasive daily exposures to neurotoxins, through inhalation, skin contact, direct blood transmission and through the gastrointestinal tract by ingestion. As a result, every individual has substantial and fluctuating neurotoxin blood levels. Two major barriers to neurotoxin entry into the central nervous system are the blood-brain barrier and the intestinal wall, in the absence of gut dysbiosis. Inflammation from gut dysbiosis, induced by antibiotic usage, can increase the intestinal wall permeability for neurotoxins to reach the bloodstream, and also increase the blood-brain barrier permeability to neurotoxins. Gut dysbiosis, including gut dysbiosis caused by antibiotic treatments, is an especially high risk for neurotoxin entry into the brain to cause late onset neuropathologies. Gut dysbiosis has far-reaching immune system and central nervous system effects, and even a transient gut dysbiosis can act in combination with neurotoxins, such as aluminum, mercury, lead, arsenic, cadmium, selenium, manganese, organophosphate pesticides and organochlorines, to reach neurotoxin blood levels that can initiate a late onset neuropathology, depending on an individual's age and genetic vulnerability.

Analysis of Time Trends in Alzheimer's Disease and Related Dementias Using Partitioning Approach

BACKGROUND

Understanding the dynamics of epidemiologic trends in Alzheimer's disease (AD) and related dementias (ADRD) and their epidemiologic causes is vital to providing important insights into reducing the burden associated with these conditions.

OBJECTIVE

To model the time trends in age-adjusted AD/ADRD prevalence and incidence-based mortality (IBM), and identify the main causes of the changes in these measures over time in terms of interpretable epidemiologic quantities.

METHODS

Trend decomposition was applied to a 5%sample of Medicare beneficiaries between 1991 and 2017.

RESULTS

Prevalence of AD was increasing between 1992 and 2011 and declining thereafter, while IBM increased over the study period with a significant slowdown in its rate of growth from 2011 onwards. For ADRD, prevalence and IBM increased through 2014 prior to taking a downwards turn. The primary determinant responsible for declines in prevalence and IBM was the deceleration in the increase and eventual decrease in incidence rates though changes in relative survival began to affect the overall trends in prevalence/IBM in a noticeable manner after 2008. Other components showed only minor effects.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence and IBM of ADRD is expected to continue to decrease. The directions of these trends for AD are not clear because AD incidence, the main contributing component, is decreasing but at a decreasing rate suggesting a possible reversal. Furthermore, emerging treatments may contribute through their effects on survival. Improving ascertainment of AD played an important role in trends of AD/ADRD over the 1991-2009/10 period but this effect has exhausted itself by 2017.

Outcomes and Costs for Women After Breast Cancer: Preparing for Improved Survivorship of Medicare Beneficiaries

PURPOSE

Increasing health care costs, longer life expectancy, improved breast cancer (BC) survival, and higher levels of complex comorbidities have important implications for future Medicare expenditures.

METHODS

Data from the SEER program linked to Medicare claims records were used. Women with BC (cases) were categorized into 3 groups on the basis of their year of diagnosis (1998, 2003, or 2008) and were propensity score matched to women without a BC diagnosis (controls). All stage and stage-specific longitudinal changes in survival, morbidity levels using the Elixhauser index, and Medicare expenditures in 2018 dollars were calculated and compared.

RESULTS

More than 15% of BC cases were diagnosed in patients over the age of 85 years. The prevalence of most comorbidities increased over time. Costs among cases increased between 1998 and 2008. Spending directly correlated with the stage of disease at diagnosis, with the lowest per-patient costs in the ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) subgroup ($14,792 in 1998 and $19,652 in 2008) and the highest in those with distant cancer ($37,667 in 1998 and $43,675 in 2008). Assuming no significant changes in the distribution of BC stage or age at diagnosis, the total annual costs of caring for patients with BC in women 65 years of age or older at diagnosis increased by at least $1.1 billion between 1998 and 2008.

CONCLUSION

Improvements in BC survivorship are associated with intensive use of health care resources and substantially higher downstream costs among Medicare beneficiaries. Appropriate planning, in both the fiscal and the oncology care infrastructure, is required to prepare the health system for these emerging health care trends.

Elevated Amygdala Activity in Young Adults With Familial Risk for Depression: A Potential Marker of Low Resilience

BACKGROUND

Amygdala overactivity has been frequently observed in patients with depression, as well as in nondepressed relatives of patients with depression. A remaining unanswered question is whether elevated amygdala activity in those with familial risk for depression is related to the presence of subthreshold symptoms or to a trait-level vulnerability for illness.

METHODS

To examine this question, functional magnetic resonance imaging data were collected in nondepressed young adults with (family history [FH+]) (n = 27) or without (FH-) (n = 45) a first-degree relative with a history of depression while they viewed images of "looming" or withdrawing stimuli (faces and cars) that varied in salience by virtue of their apparent proximity to the subject. Activation of the amygdala and 2 other regions known to exhibit responses to looming stimuli, the dorsal intraparietal sulcus (DIPS) and ventral premotor cortex (PMv), were measured, as well as levels of resilience, anxiety, and psychotic and depressive symptoms.

RESULTS

Compared with the FH- group, the FH+ group exhibited significantly greater responses of the amygdala, but not the dorsal intraparietal sulcus or ventral premotor cortex, to looming face stimuli. Moreover, amygdala responses in the FH+ group were negatively correlated with levels of resilience and unrelated to levels of subthreshold symptoms of psychopathology.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings indicate that elevated amygdala activity in nondepressed young adults with a familial history of depression is more closely linked to poor resilience than to current symptom state.

Partitioning of time trends in prevalence and mortality of lung cancer

BACKGROUND

Time trends of lung cancer prevalence and mortality are the result of three competing processes: changes in the incidence rate, stage-specific survival, and ascertainment at early stages. Improvements in these measures act concordantly to improve disease-related mortality, but push the prevalence rate in opposite directions making a qualitative interpretation difficult. The goal of this paper is to evaluate the relative contributions of these components to changes in lung cancer prevalence and mortality.

METHODS

Partitioning of prevalence and mortality trends into their components using SEER data for 1973-2013.

RESULTS

The prevalence of lung cancer increases for females and decreases for males. In 1998, the former was due to increased incidence (45%-50% of total trend), improved survival (40%-45%), and increased ascertainment at early stages (10%-15%). In males, a rapidly declining incidence rate overpowered the effects of survival and ascertainment resulting in an overall decrease in prevalence over time. Trends in lung cancer mortality are determined by incidence during 1993-2002 with noticeable contribution of survival after 2002.

CONCLUSION

Lung cancer incidence was the main driving force behind trends in prevalence and mortality. Improved survival played essential role from 2000 onwards. Trends in stage ascertainment played a small but adverse role. Our results suggest that further improvement in lung cancer mortality can be achieved through advances in early stage ascertainment, especially for males, and that in spite of success in treatment, adenocarcinoma continues to exhibit adverse trends (especially in female incidence) and its role among other histology-specific lung cancers will increase in the near future.