What drives the future supply of regulating ecosystem services in a mountain forest landscape?

Mapping the natural disturbance risk to protective forests across the European Alps

Mountain forests play an essential role in protecting people and infrastructure from natural hazards. However, forests are currently experiencing an increasing rate of natural disturbances (including windthrows, bark beetle outbreaks and forest fires) that may jeopardize their capacity to provide this ecosystem service in the future. Here, we mapped the risk to forests' protective service across the European Alps by integrating the risk components of hazard (in this case, the probability of a disturbance occurring), exposure (the proportion of forests that protect people or infrastructure), and vulnerability (the probability that the forests lose their protective structure after a disturbance). We combined satellite-based data on forest disturbances from 1986 to 2020 with data on key forest structural characteristics (cover and height) from spaceborne lidar (GEDI), and used ensemble models to predict disturbance probabilities and post-disturbance forest structure based on topographic and climatic predictors. Wind and bark beetles are dominant natural disturbance agents in the Alps, with a mean annual probability of occurrence of 0.05%, while forest fires were less likely (mean annual probability <0.01%), except in the south-western Alps. After a disturbance, over 40% of forests maintained their protective structure, highlighting the important role of residual living or dead trees. Within 30 years after wind and bark beetle disturbance, 61% of forests were likely to either maintain or recover their protective structure. Vulnerability to fires was higher, with 51% of forest still lacking sufficient protective structure 30 years after fire. Fire vulnerability was especially pronounced at dry sites, which also had a high fire hazard. Combining hazard and vulnerability with the exposure of protective forests we identified 186 Alpine municipalities with a high risk to protective forests due to wind and bark beetles, and 117 with a high fire risk. Mapping the disturbance risk to ecosystem services can help identify priority areas for increasing preparedness and managing forests towards lower susceptibility under an intensifying disturbance regime.

Sustainable Development versus Extractivist Deforestation in Tropical, Subtropical, and Boreal Forest Ecosystems: Repercussions and Controversies about the Mother Tree and the Mycorrhizal Network Hypothesis

This research reviews the phenomenon of extractive deforestation as a possible trigger for cascade reactions that could affect part of the forest ecosystem and its biodiversity (surface, aerial, and underground) in tropical, subtropical, and boreal forests. The controversy and disparities in criteria generated in the international scientific community around the hypothesis of a possible link between "mother trees" and mycorrhizal networks in coopetition for nutrients, nitrogen, and carbon are analyzed. The objective is to promote awareness to generate more scientific knowledge about the eventual impacts of forest extraction. Public policies are emphasized as crucial mediators for balanced sustainable development. Currently, the effects of extractive deforestation on forest ecosystems are poorly understood, which requires caution and forest protection. Continued research to increase our knowledge in molecular biology is advocated to understand the adaptation of biological organisms to the new conditions of the ecosystem both in the face of extractive deforestation and reforestation. The environmental impacts of extractive deforestation, such as the loss of biodiversity, soil degradation, altered water cycles, and the contribution of climate change, remain largely unknown. Long-term and high-quality research is essential to ensure forest sustainability and the preservation of biodiversity for future generations.

Promoting forest landscape dynamic prediction with an online collaborative strategy

Modeling and predicting forest landscape dynamics are crucial for forest management and policy making, especially under the context of climate change and increased severities of disturbances. As forest landscapes change rapidly due to a variety of anthropogenic and natural factors, accurately and efficiently predicting forest dynamics requires the collaboration and synthesis of domain knowledge and experience from geographically dispersed experts. Owing to advanced web techniques, such collaboration can now be achieved to a certain extent, for example, discussion about modeling methods, consultation for model use, and surveying for stakeholders' feedback can be conducted on the web. However, a research gap remains in terms of how to facilitate online joint actions in the core task of forest landscape modeling by overcoming the challenges from decentralized and heterogeneous data, offline model computation modes, complex simulation scenarios, and exploratory modeling processes. Therefore, we propose an online collaborative strategy to enable collaborative forest landscape dynamic prediction with four core modules, namely data preparation, forest landscape model (FLM) computation, simulation scenario configuration, and process organization. These four modules are designed to support: (1) voluntary data collection and online processing, (2) online synchronous use of FLMs, (3) collaborative simulation scenario design, altering, and execution, and (4) participatory modeling process customization and coordination. We used the LANDIS-II model as a representative FLM to demonstrate the online collaborative strategy for predicting the dynamics of forest aboveground biomass. The results showed that the online collaboration strategy effectively promoted forest landscape dynamic prediction in data preparation, scenario configuration, and task arrangement, thus supporting forest-related decision making.

Drivers of spatio-temporal population dynamics of game species in a mountain landscape

Since the end of the nineteenth century, socio-economic changes have greatly altered the Central European landscape and the structural and functional quality of habitats. Urban sprawl areas have appeared, a reduction of multiple forest uses has resulted in the densification of forests and agricultural land use has changed fundamentally through specialisation and intensification. Many of these changes affect biodiversity. To determine the important drivers of spatio-temporal dynamics of the population of 28 game species, we first considered a total of 130 potential explanatory variables. Second, we aggregated the main drivers of single-species models for habitat guilds. Third, we evaluated the results to aid in the development and implementation of mitigation measures for different ecoregions. We used harvest data as a surrogate for population density from 1875 to 2014 in South Tyrol, Italy. In generalised linear models, we used environmental characteristics such as climate, landscape diversity and structures, land cover, hunting, wildlife diseases, competition and predation, land-use type, and intensity (including pesticide use) as explanatory variables to predict the spatio-temporal dynamics of game species. The important drivers are land use and management changes (intensification in the agriculturally favourable areas, extensification or abandonment in the unfavourable areas) as well as associated changes in the landscape features, diversity and structure, and hunting management. Climatic variables, interspecific competition and diseases only play a subordinate role. The dynamics of the habitat guilds and their drivers provide concrete indications for measures to maintain or improve the habitat quality for the investigated species. Particularly important are transfer payments to ensure extensive agricultural use, increasingly through the takeover of personnel costs, but also for the installation of an independent body that monitors and evaluates the effectiveness of the measures.

Past and future impacts of land-use changes on ecosystem services in Austria

Environmental and socio-economic developments induce land-use changes with potentially negative impacts on human well-being. To counteract undesired developments, a profound understanding of the complex relationships between drivers, land use, and ecosystem services is needed. Yet, national studies examining extended time periods are still rare. Based on the Special Report on land use, land management and climate change by the Austrian Panel on Climate Change (APCC), we use the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework to (1) identify the main drivers of land-use change, (2) describe past and future land-use changes in Austria between 1950 and 2100, (3) report related impacts on ecosystem services, and (4) discuss management responses. Our findings indicate that socio-economic drivers (e.g., economic growth, political systems, and technological developments) have influenced past land-use changes the most. The intensification of agricultural land use and urban sprawl have primarily led to declining ecosystem services in the lowlands. In mountain regions, the abandonment of mountain grassland has prompted a shift from provisioning to regulating services. However, simulations indicate that accelerating climate change will surpass socio-economic drivers in significance towards the end of this century, particularly in intensively used agricultural areas. Although climate change-induced impacts on ecosystem services remain uncertain, it can be expected that the range of land-use management options will be restricted in the future. Consequently, policymaking should prioritize the development of integrated land-use planning to safeguard ecosystem services, accounting for future environmental and socio-economic uncertainties.

A socio-ecological and geospatial approach for evaluation of ecosystem services to communities of the Eastern Himalayan Region, India

Mountains are one of the most ecological functional areas and provide wide range of ecosystem services (ESs) to the adjoining people. However, the mountainous ESs are highly vulnerable due to land use and land cover (LULC) change and climate change. Therefore, evaluations of the nexus between ESs and mountainous communities are essentially required for policy purpose. This study aims to assess ESs by analyzing LULC focusing in three ecosystems (forest, agriculture, and home garden) from urban and peri-urban areas for last 3 decades, applying participatory and geospatial approaches for a mountainous city in Eastern Himalayan Region (EHR), India. The findings showed that a substantial loss in ESs has occurred during the period. Moreover, there were substantial variations of ecosystem importance and dependency between urban and peri-urban areas with highest importance of provisioning ESs in peri-urban areas and cultural ESs in urban areas. Moreover, among the three ecosystems, forests were strongly supporting the peri-urban areas communities. The result demonstrated that the communities are highly dependent on various ESs for their livelihoods, but the changes of LULC had substantial impact on the loss of ESs. Therefore, implementation of effective land uses planning strategies and measures for ecological security and livelihood sustainability is to be managed with people participation in mountainous areas.

Long-term game species dynamic as indicator for changing landscape quality

Urban sprawl, increased traffic and modern forestry, as well as the globalisation of agriculture, have increasingly been affecting the landscape and its quality as habitat for species especially since the middle of the last century. Still, there are hardly any methods nor indicators which can measure the quality of the landscape for species over a long period. In this study, we investigated the influence of landscape structure and landscape quality on harvest data of 28 game species in South Tyrol, Italy, over the last 150 years. The harvest data were used to assess the population dynamics of individual species and habitat guilds since 1870. As a first result, we could show, on the examples of six species, that count population data were highly correlated with harvest data and are therefore well suited to estimate their population size. Second, the populations of ungulates consistently increased during the study period. The numbers of mesocarnivores as well as smaller forest and alpine game species increased strongly until the 1970s/80s of the last century, followed by a decline. The populations of farmland species and some synanthropic species have decreased substantially, and some species have even disappeared completely. Based on these results, we were able to show, in a third step, that the landscape quality for game species in South Tyrol has developed differently: In particular, the agriculturally used habitats have lost quality, whereas forests and alpine regions have initially gained quality due to the extensification of use; during the last five decades, the quality decreases again, at least for small game species. Our results thus provide concrete implications for the active improvement of the landscape quality for farmland and forest species, as well as indications for future priorities in funding support of alpine pasture management.

Future supply of boreal forest ecosystem services is driven by management rather than by climate change

Forests provide a wide variety of ecosystem services (ES) to society. The boreal biome is experiencing the highest rates of warming on the planet and increasing demand for forest products. To foresee how to maximize the adaptation of boreal forests to future warmer conditions and growing demands of forest products, we need a better understanding of the relative importance of forest management and climate change on the supply of ecosystem services. Here, using Finland as a boreal forest case study, we assessed the potential supply of a wide range of ES (timber, bilberry, cowberry, mushrooms, carbon storage, scenic beauty, species habitat availability and deadwood) given seven management regimes and four climate change scenarios. We used the forest simulator SIMO to project forest dynamics for 100 years into the future (2016-2116) and estimate the potential supply of each service using published models. Then, we tested the relative importance of management and climate change as drivers of the future supply of these services using generalized linear mixed models. Our results show that the effects of management on the future supply of these ES were, on average, 11 times higher than the effects of climate change across all services, but greatly differed among them (from 0.53 to 24 times higher for timber and cowberry, respectively). Notably, the importance of these drivers substantially differed among biogeographical zones within the boreal biome. The effects of climate change were 1.6 times higher in northern Finland than in southern Finland, whereas the effects of management were the opposite-they were three times higher in the south compared to the north. We conclude that new guidelines for adapting forests to global change should account for regional differences and the variation in the effects of climate change and management on different forest ES.

Scientists' warning of the impacts of climate change on mountains

Mountains are highly diverse in areal extent, geological and climatic context, ecosystems and human activity. As such, mountain environments worldwide are particularly sensitive to the effects of anthropogenic climate change (global warming) as a result of their unique heat balance properties and the presence of climatically-sensitive snow, ice, permafrost and ecosystems. Consequently, mountain systems-in particular cryospheric ones-are currently undergoing unprecedented changes in the Anthropocene. This study identifies and discusses four of the major properties of mountains upon which anthropogenic climate change can impact, and indeed is already doing so. These properties are: the changing mountain cryosphere of glaciers and permafrost; mountain hazards and risk; mountain ecosystems and their services; and mountain communities and infrastructure. It is notable that changes in these different mountain properties do not follow a predictable trajectory of evolution in response to anthropogenic climate change. This demonstrates that different elements of mountain systems exhibit different sensitivities to forcing. The interconnections between these different properties highlight that mountains should be considered as integrated biophysical systems, of which human activity is part. Interrelationships between these mountain properties are discussed through a model of mountain socio-biophysical systems, which provides a framework for examining climate impacts and vulnerabilities. Managing the risks associated with ongoing climate change in mountains requires an integrated approach to climate change impacts monitoring and management.

Community-based responses for tackling environmental and socio-economic change and impacts in mountain social-ecological systems

Mountain social-ecological systems (SES) are often rich in biological and cultural diversity with sustained human-nature interactions. Many mountain SES are experiencing rapid environmental and socio-economic change, demanding viable action for conservation to sustain ecosystem services for the benefit of their communities. This paper is a synthesis of 71 case studies of mountain-specific SES, submitted to the International Partnership for the Satoyama Initiative (IPSI) that identifies major drivers of change, associated impacts, and response strategies. We find that overexploitation, land use change, demographic change, and the regional economy are the most prevalent drivers of change in the IPSI mountain SES, leading to negative consequences for biodiversity, livelihoods, indigenous knowledge, and culture. To counter these challenges in the study SES, stakeholders from the public, private, and civil society sectors have been implementing diverse legal, behavioral, cognitive, technological, and economic response strategies, often with strong community participation. We outline the lessons learned from the IPSI case studies to show how community-based approaches can contribute meaningfully to the sustainable management of mountain landscapes.

Accelerating Mountain Forest Dynamics in the Alps

Climate change alters forest development pathways, with consequences for ecosystem services and biodiversity. As the rate of warming increases, ecosystem change is expected to accelerate. However, ecosystem dynamics can have many causes unrelated to climate (for example, disturbance and stand development legacies). The compound effects of multiple drivers remain largely unclear. Here, we assessed forest dynamics over 28 years at Berchtesgaden National Park (BGNP), Germany, quantifying the spatiotemporal patterns and unraveling the drivers of forest change. We analyzed high-density forest inventory data, consisting of three consecutive censuses of 3759 permanent sample plots (132,866 tree records in total). We used semi-variograms to analyze spatial patterns of change, and boosted regression trees to quantify the effect of 30 covariates on changes in nine indicators of forest structure and composition. Over the 28 years investigated, the forests of BGNP were becoming denser, structurally more complex, and more species rich. Changes in forest structure were more pronounced and spatially correlated on the landscape than changes in tree species composition. Change rates of all indicators increased over time, signifying an acceleration of forest dynamics since the 1980s. Legacies and climate were the most important drivers of change, but had diverging impacts. Although forest change accelerated with increasing temperature, high legacy levels typical for late development stages dampened it. We here provide evidence for accelerating forest dynamics in mountain forests of the Alps, with potentially far-reaching consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem processes. We highlight that unmanaged forest development toward old-growth conditions could counteract climate-mediated acceleration of forest change.

Agroforestry trade-offs between biomass provision and aboveground carbon sequestration in the alpine Eisenwurzen region, Austria

Mountain agroecosystems deliver essential ecosystem services to society but are prone to climate change as well as socio-economic pressures, making multi-functional land systems increasingly central to sustainable mountain land use policy. Agroforestry, the combination of woody vegetation with crops and/or livestock, is expected to simultaneously increase provisioning and regulating ecosystem services, but knowledge gaps concerning trade-offs exist especially in temperate industrialized and alpine regions. Here, we quantify the aboveground carbon (C) dynamics of a hypothetical agroforestry implementation in the Austrian long-term socio-ecological research region Eisenwurzen from 2020 to 2050. We develop three land use scenarios to differentiate conventional agriculture from an immediate and a gradual agroforestry implementation, integrate data from three distinct models (Yield-SAFE, SECLAND, MIAMI), and advance the socio-ecological indicator framework Human Appropriation of Net Primary Production (HANPP) to assess trade-offs between biomass provision and carbon sequestration. Results indicate that agroforestry strongly decreases HANPP because of a reduction in biomass harvest by up to - 47% and a simultaneous increase in actual net primary production by up to 31%, with a large amount of carbon sequestered in perennial biomass by up to 3.4 t C ha-1 yr-1. This shows that a hypothetical transition to agroforestry in the Eisenwurzen relieves the agroecosystem from human-induced pressure but results in significant trade-offs between biomass provision and carbon sequestration. We thus conclude that while harvest losses inhibit large-scale implementation in intensively used agricultural regions, agroforestry constitutes a valuable addition to sustainable land use policy, in particular when affecting extensive pastures and meadows in alpine landscapes.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10113-021-01794-y.

Do bark beetle outbreaks amplify or dampen future bark beetle disturbances in Central Europe?

Bark beetle outbreaks have intensified in many forests around the globe in recent years. Yet, the legacy of these disturbances for future forest development remains unclear. Bark beetle disturbances are expected to increase further because of climate change. Consequently, feedbacks within the disturbance regime are of growing interest, for example, whether bark beetle outbreaks are amplifying future bark beetle activity (through the initiation of an even-aged cohort of trees) or dampening it (through increased structural and compositional diversity).We studied bark beetle-vegetation-climate interactions in the Bavarian Forest National Park (Germany), an area characterised by unprecedented bark beetle activity in the recent past. We simulated the effect of future bark beetle outbreaks on forest structure and composition and analysed how disturbance-mediated forest dynamics influence future bark beetle activity under different scenarios of climate change. We used process-based simulation modelling in combination with machine learning to disentangle the long-term interactions between vegetation, climate and bark beetles at the landscape scale.Disturbances by the European spruce bark beetle were strongly amplified by climate change, increasing between 59% and 221% compared to reference climate. Bark beetle outbreaks reduced the dominance of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) on the landscape, increasing compositional diversity. Disturbances decreased structural diversity within stands (α diversity) and increased structural diversity between stands (β diversity). Overall, disturbance-mediated changes in forest structure and composition dampened future disturbance activity (a reduction of up to -67%), but were not able to fully compensate for the amplifying effect of climate change. Synthesis. Our findings indicate that the recent disturbance episode at the Bavarian Forest National Park was caused by a convergence of highly susceptible forest structures with climatic conditions favourable for bark beetle outbreaks. While future climate is increasingly conducive to massive outbreaks, the emerging landscape structure is less and less likely to support them. This study improves our understanding of the long-term legacies of ongoing bark beetle disturbances in Central Europe. It indicates that increased diversity provides an important dampening feedback, and suggests that preventing disturbances or homogenizing post-disturbance forests could elevate the future susceptibility to large-scale bark beetle outbreaks.

Phenology Modelling and Forest Disturbance Mapping with Sentinel-2 Time Series in Austria

Worldwide, forests provide natural resources and ecosystem services. However, forest ecosystems are threatened by increasing forest disturbance dynamics, caused by direct human activities or by altering environmental conditions. It is decisive to reconstruct and trace the intra- to transannual dynamics of forest ecosystems. National to local forest authorities and other stakeholders request detailed area-wide maps that delineate forest disturbance dynamics at various spatial scales. We developed a time series analysis (TSA) framework that comprises data download, data management, image preprocessing and an advanced but flexible TSA. We use dense Sentinel-2 time series and a dynamic Savitzky–Golay-filtering approach to model robust but sensitive phenology courses. Deviations from the phenology models are used to derive detailed spatiotemporal information on forest disturbances. In a first case study, we apply the TSA to map forest disturbances directly or indirectly linked to recurring bark beetle infestation in Northern Austria. In addition to spatially detailed maps, zonal statistics on different spatial scales provide aggregated information on the extent of forest disturbances between 2018 and 2019. The outcomes are (a) area-wide consistent data of individual phenology models and deduced phenology metrics for Austrian forests and (b) operational forest disturbance maps, useful to investigate and monitor forest disturbances to facilitate sustainable forest management.

The influence of climate change and canopy disturbances on landslide susceptibility in headwater catchments

Forests have an important regulating function on water runoff and the occurrence of shallow landslides. Their structure and composition directly influence the risk of hydrogeomorphic processes, like floods with high sediment transport or debris flows. Climate change is substantially altering forest ecosystems, and for Central Europe an increase in natural disturbances from wind and insect outbreaks is expected for the future. How such changes impact the regulating function of forest ecosystems remains unclear. By combining methods from forestry, hydrology and geotechnical engineering we investigated possible effects of changing climate and disturbance regimes on shallow landslides. We simulated forest landscapes in two headwater catchments in the Eastern Alps of Austria under four different future climate scenarios over 200 years. Our results indicate that climate-mediated changes in forest dynamics can substantially alter the protective function of forest ecosystems. Climate change generally increased landslide risk in our simulations. Only when future warming coincided with drying landslide risk decreased relative to historic conditions. In depth analyses showed that an important driver of future landslide risk was the simulated vegetation composition. Trajectories away from flat rooting Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) forests currently dominating the system towards an increasing proportion of tree species with heart and taproot systems, increased root cohesion and reduced the soil volume mobilized in landslides. Natural disturbances generally reduced landslide risk in our simulations, with the positive effect of accelerated tree species change and increasing root cohesion outweighing a potential negative effect of disturbances on the water cycle. We conclude that while the efficacy of green infrastructure such as protective forests could be substantially reduced by climate change, such systems also have a strong inherent ability to adapt to changing conditions. Forest management should foster this adaptive capacity to strengthen the protective function of forests also under changing environmental conditions.

Spatio-temporal changes in ecosystem service values: Effects of land-use changes from past to future (1860-2100)

Increasing global pressure on natural resources requires that decision makers and land managers adopt sustainable solutions to ensure the long-term provision of essential ecosystem services (ES). Analysing the effects of land-use changes on ES can contribute to an improved understanding of the interactions between socio-economic development, landscape changes and ES, which is fundamental in order to avoid or mitigate the undesired consequences of today's decisions. Studies at longer timescales are still underrepresented, but are also fundamental for capturing slow social and ecological processes. This study therefore analysed the impacts of land-use/land cover (LULC) changes on ES values from the past to the future (1860-2100) in the Autonomous Province of South Tyrol (Italy). Future scenarios were based on socio-economic storylines and their spatial distribution mapped. By attributing ES values to LULC types, we assessed changes in ES values as well as their spatial patterns. Our results indicate that the abandonment of mountain grassland induced an ongoing shift in ES at higher elevations, from grassland-related ES towards forest-related ES. The intensification of use in the valley bottoms had predominantly negative effects on regulation & maintenance, and cultural ES in the past. Under future scenarios, changes in ES values at lower elevations greatly depend on expected socio-economic development. Negative effects on regulation & maintenance and cultural ES were highest for the 'Food sovereignty' scenario due to huge transformations of grassland and permanent cultures to arable land in order to optimise food provision at the regional level. In contrast, under the 'Liberalisation' and 'Rewilding' scenarios, there were positive trends for forest-related provisioning ES and less negative effects on regulation & maintenance and cultural ES within the study area, but the dependence on imported products increased. Our findings provide valuable information for decision-making and policy development in order to minimise negative consequences through targeted management measures or payments for environmental services.

Farmers' tea and nation's trees: A framework for eco-compensation assessment based on a subjective-objective combination analysis

The effectiveness and sustainability of eco-compensation policy implementation are essential to ecosystem service protection. However, a purely subjective standpoint causes deviations from the compensation benchmark, while decision-making based solely on an objective standpoint fails to offer a profound understanding of local stakeholder conflicts. Therefore, local authorities find it difficult to set reasonable and effective eco-compensation implementation standards. An assessment framework for eco-compensation, defined as the subjective-objective combination analysis (SOCA), which considers both the subjective and objective positions of stakeholders is proposed. Focusing on a typical eco-compensation case, "Returning Tea to Forest", a compensation range is finally quantified from $443/ha to $2114/ha per year using the SOCA framework. SOCA quantification from multiple perspectives optimized the eco-compensation benchmark determinations and the eco-protection decision-making process.

Quantifying ecosystem services of dominate forests in the Beijing mountain area

In this study, the forest landscape in the Beijing mountain area is assessed using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs model. The results showed the natural forests have higher functional capital than the planted forests and different species contribute to different ecological functions. Specifically, Larix gmelinii forests have the highest water resources and soil conservation function which are about 334.14 m³ hm^-2 year^-1 and 115.92 t hm^-2 year^-1; Betula allegansis forests have the highest carbon storage and biodiversity function which are about 128.46 t hm^-2 year^-1 and 0.76. Besides soil, water is conserved more within coniferous forests than within broadleaf forests. Carbon sequestration and the functional capacity for biodiversity within a unit area of coniferous forests are much smaller than those within a unit area of a broadleaf forest. Previous studies highlight the forest management strategies will influence the ecosystem functions while in the current studies we also found the species option during the afforestation is equally important and protecting of the natural forests is more important than afforestation for maintaining the ecological functional capitals.

The Impact of Land Use Change on Ecosystem Service Value in the Upstream of Xiong’an New Area

The development of the Xiong’an New Area is a crucial strategy for the next millennium in China. The ecosystem upstream of the Xiong’an New Area, serving for the development of the Xiong’an New Area, changed with land use changes. To analyze the contribution rate of the land use change to the ecosystem service value, we analyzed the land use changes of three small watersheds (7318.56 km2) upstream of the Xiong’an New Area based on a total of six phases of land use data from 1980 to 2015. Then, the ecosystem service value (ESV) was calculated using the equivalent factor method. The results showed that the construction land and arable land were the largest land use types that increased and decreased in the area of the study area, respectively. The grassland and construction land were the land use types with the largest transfer-out area and transfer-in area, respectively. The regulating services accounted for the largest proportion of total ESV among different ecosystem service functions, and the grassland and woodland accounted for the largest proportion of total ESV among different land use types. ESV in the study area fluctuated slightly from 1980 to 2015. The decrease of ESV mainly occurred in the surrounding areas of mountain towns, and the conversion of cultivated land to construction land was the main reason for the decrease of ESV in this area. The conversion of grassland to construction land had the largest contribution rate to the decrease of ESV in the study area, while the conversion of grassland to waters had the largest contribution rate to the increase of ESV. In conclusion, controlling the development of construction land and strengthening water resources’ protection may improve the ecosystem service value in the upstream Xiong’an New Area in the future.

Climate change causes critical transitions and irreversible alterations of mountain forests

Mountain forests are at particular risk of climate change impacts due to their temperature limitation and high exposure to warming. At the same time, their complex topography may help to buffer the effects of climate change and create climate refugia. Whether climate change can lead to critical transitions of mountain forest ecosystems and whether such transitions are reversible remain incompletely understood. We investigated the resilience of forest composition and size structure to climate change, focusing on a mountain forest landscape in the Eastern Alps. Using the individual-based forest landscape model iLand, we simulated ecosystem responses to a wide range of climatic changes (up to a 6°C increase in mean annual temperature and a 30% reduction in mean annual precipitation), testing for tipping points in vegetation size structure and composition under different topography scenarios. We found that at warming levels above +2°C a threshold was crossed, with the system tipping into an alternative state. The system shifted from a conifer-dominated landscape characterized by large trees to a landscape dominated by smaller, predominantly broadleaved trees. Topographic complexity moderated climate change impacts, smoothing and delaying the transitions between alternative vegetation states. We subsequently reversed the simulated climate forcing to assess the ability of the landscape to recover from climate change impacts. The forest landscape showed hysteresis, particularly in scenarios with lower precipitation. At the same mean annual temperature, equilibrium vegetation size structure and species composition differed between warming and cooling trajectories. Here we show that even moderate warming corresponding to current policy targets could result in critical transitions of forest ecosystems and highlight the importance of topographic complexity as a buffering agent. Furthermore, our results show that overshooting ambitious climate mitigation targets could be dangerous, as ecological impacts can be irreversible at millennial time scales once a tipping point has been crossed.

The Design of the Payments for Water-Related Ecosystem Services: What Should the Ideal Payment in Slovakia Look Like?

Water-related forest ecosystems services (WES) are vital to the functioning of the biosphere, society, and human well-being. In Slovakia, the active support of WES is provided by economic instruments of forest policy, while the market-based solution as payments for water-related services (PWS) is lacking. Starting from this point, the objective matter of the paper is to develop the payments for WES schemes in Slovakia. The study was based on document analysis and stakeholders´ opinions towards PWS. Fifteen Slovak stakeholders from forestry, water management, and nature protection were involved in the study. These stakeholders represent potential buyers, seller, intermediaries, and knowledge providers in PWS schemes. Based on the theoretical background and the results of the survey, the authors defined key aspects of the design and implementation of PWS schemes in Slovak conditions such as potential buyers and sellers, important factors for the implementation of PWS schemes, and the role of public authorities.

Can wildland fire management alter 21st-century subalpine fire and forests in Grand Teton National Park, Wyoming, USA?

In subalpine forests of the western United States that historically experienced infrequent, high-severity fire, whether fire management can shape 21st-century fire regimes and forest dynamics to meet natural resource objectives is not known. Managed wildfire use (i.e., allowing lightning-ignited fires to burn when risk is low instead of suppressing them) is one approach for maintaining natural fire regimes and fostering mosaics of forest structure, stand age, and tree-species composition, while protecting people and property. However, little guidance exists for where and when this strategy may be effective with climate change. We simulated most of the contiguous forest in Grand Teton National Park, Wyoming, USA to ask: (1) how would subalpine fires and forest structure be different if fires had not been suppressed during the last three decades? And (2) what is the relative influence of climate change vs. fire management strategy on future fire and forests? We contrasted fire and forests from 1989 to 2098 under two fire management scenarios (managed wildfire use and fire suppression), two general circulation models (CNRM-CM5 and GFDL-ESM2M), and two representative concentration pathways (8.5 and 4.5). We found little difference between management scenarios in the number, size, or severity of fires during the last three decades. With 21st-century warming, fire activity increased rapidly, particularly after 2050, and followed nearly identical trajectories in both management scenarios. Area burned per year between 2018 and 2099 was 1,700% greater than in the last three decades (1989-2017). Large areas of forest were abruptly lost; only 65% of the original 40,178 ha of forest remained by 2098. However, forests stayed connected and fuels were abundant enough to support profound increases in burning through this century. Our results indicate that strategies emphasizing managed wildfire use, rather than suppression, will not alter climate-induced changes to fire and forests in subalpine landscapes of western North America. This suggests that managers may continue to have flexibility to strategically suppress subalpine fires without concern for long-term consequences, in distinct contrast with dry conifer forests of the Rocky Mountains and mixed conifer forest of California where maintaining low fuel loads is essential for sustaining frequent, low-severity surface fire regimes.

Ecosystem services research in mountainous regions: A systematic literature review on current knowledge and research gaps

Mountain ecosystem services (MES) can provide a wide range of benefits for human well-being, including provisioning, regulating, supporting and cultural services. This systematic review work analyzed existed knowledge and research gaps on MES at the global level. The study used databases of science direct, Scopus and google scholar using searching, appraisal, synthesis, and analysis (SALSA) framework. Using specific keywords for the searching engine, the number of publications linked with MES were about 1252 which published between 1992 and June 2019. But, only 74 publications fulfilled the inclusion criteria. The analysis highlighted the existence of gaps in the literature including case studies from a limited geographical areas, focus on regulating and provisioning services, and lack of studies that explore the kinds of interlink between ecosystem services, and occurrence of limitation linked with data and methodology. From the 74 publications used for analysis, only seven of them were addressed mainly trade-offs and synergies, but most of them focus on quantification, qualification and economic valuation of the services. From the total case studies, the services addressed were summed up to 317 services, and the services such as climate regulation, food and fodder, fresh water, recreation and ecotourism, and erosion regulation studied more. On the contrary, photosynthesis, ornamental resources, net primary production, disease regulation, genetic resources, water purification and waste treatments were the least studied. Therefore, future research works should focus on mountainous areas of no and least studied of its ecosystem services. Critical studies are also required that indicate the link between a human being with MES, the trade-offs and synergies between MES and the influence of human beings on the quality and accessibility of ecosystem services. Besides, priority should be given by researches for methodological development and proposing management option for the mountain ecosystem and resource.