Selective internal migration. Does it explain Glasgow's worsening mortality record?

Metro/Nonmetro Migration as a Risk Factor for Opioid Use Disorder Among Older Medicare Beneficiaries: A Longitudinal Analysis of 2013-2018 Data

Opioid use disorder (OUD) among older adults (65+) has drawn researchers' attention. Nonetheless, whether migration between a metropolitan (metro) and nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) county shapes the risk of OUD remains underexplored. The drift hypothesis argues that individuals susceptible to a certain health condition tend to move, increasing the prevalence of the health condition in the destinations. By contrast, the environmental breeder hypothesis claims that migration alters the exposures to residential environment factors, which are associated with the occurrence of health conditions. Applying fixed-effects modeling to longitudinal data of older Medicare beneficiaries moving at least once between 2013 and 2018 (N = 6,227, person-year = 28,874), this study finds that older beneficiaries moving between metro and nonmetro counties demonstrated a higher risk of OUD than those who did not move. The positive association between migration and OUD risk is particularly strong for those moving from metro to nonmetro counties and the drift hypothesis receives stronger support.

Exploring residential relocation- differences between newcomers and settled residents in health, travel behaviour and neighbourhood perceptions

This study explores whether people who have recently moved to an area differ from longer-term residents in their health, travel behaviour, and perceptions of the environment. Using a large, representative sample from the UKHLS, Newcomers demonstrate significantly lower mental and physical health, reduced car commuting, and a higher likelihood of liking their neighbourhood. Area deprivation, urbanicity, household income, and age emerge as influential moderators with i.e. Newcomers in affluent areas experiencing lower physical health than Settled Residents, and rural Newcomers expressing less neighbourhood satisfaction. Our findings highlight that Newcomers' perceptions of their environment diverge and environmental influences vary among population segments, potentially impacting related health behaviours such as active travel. Furthermore, residential relocation introduces Newcomers with distinct characteristics into areas, affecting the context in which potential population health interventions aiming to influence health behaviours operate. This necessitates a deeper understanding of what influences reactions to the environment as well as ongoing adaptation of environmental interventions to respond to changing contexts within the same location over time.

Selective migration and mortality by economic status in Lolland-Falster, Denmark, 1992-2018

During the past 30 years, a mortality gap developed between Lolland-Falster (the rural-provincial southeastern part) and the rest of Denmark. A main driver was selective in-migration of Danes with a high risk of death, especially of working-ages. In the present study, we determined the role of economic status in this selective in-migration. We used individual-level data from the Central Population Register and data on income source; self- or publicly supported. The study population included people aged 30-64 and living in Denmark at any time between 1992 and 2018. Mortality rate ratios (MRR) were calculated using Poisson regression for three time-periods: 1992-1999, 2000-2009 and 2010-2018. Two in five in-migrants to Lolland-Falster were people on public support. In 2010-2018, they had an MRR of 8.71 (95% confidence interval (CI): 8.05-9.42) compared with self-supported people, and an MRR of 1.49 (95% CI: 1.38-1.61) compared with publicly supported people elsewhere in Denmark. In-migration of working-aged people on public support was a main contributor to the excess mortality in Lolland-Falster as compared with the rest of Denmark. To understand urban-rural differences in health, population movements and national income patterns are important to take into account.

Does Lolland-Falster make people sick, or do sick people move to Lolland-Falster? An example of selective migration and mortality in Denmark, 1968-2017

INTRODUCTION

Lolland-Falster is a rural area in south-eastern Denmark that scores unfavourable in health surveys and has the lowest life expectancy in the country. To determine the origin of poor health in Lolland-Falster, we investigated impact on mortality of long-term population movements.

METHODS

We used data from the Danish Central Population Register 1968-2017 to track movements in and out of Lolland-Falster. This enabled us to calculate mortality based on tenure of residence. Poisson regression adjusted for sex, 5-year age-groups, and calendar year; separately for men and women; and ages <30, 30-64 and ≥ 65 years; was reported as mortality rate ratios (MRR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI).

RESULTS

Until 1988, mortality in Lolland-Falster was fairly similar to that in the rest of Denmark. Hereafter, mortality rates drifted apart. In 2008-2017, MRR of the total Lolland-Falster population was 1.21 (95% CI: 1.19-1.23). In each 10-year calendar period, people recently in-migrating constituted about one fourth of the population. MRRs of the in-migrating population increased over time from 1.17 (95% CI: 1.08-1.26) in 1968-1977, to 1.82 (95% CI: 1.75-1.89) in 2008-2017. Persons aged 30-64 constituted the largest in-migrating group and had highest excess mortality, MRR 2.34 (95% CI: 2.19-2.50) in 2008-2017.

CONCLUSION

Long-term selective in-migration of vulnerable persons was behind the gradual build-up of the currently high mortality in Lolland-Falster compared to the rest of Denmark. In particular, people of working age in-migrating to Lolland-Falster contributed to this disparity.

Mental health selection: common mental disorder and migration between multiple states of deprivation in a UK cohort

OBJECTIVES

To assess whether the direction of movement along the social gradient was associated with changes in mental health status.

DESIGN

Longitudinal record-linkage study using a multistate model.

SETTING

Caerphilly, Wales, UK between 2001 and 2015.

PARTICIPANTS

The analytical sample included 10 892 (60.8% female) individuals aged 18-74 years.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Deprivation change at lower super output area level using the 2008 Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation. Mental health was assessed in 2001 and 2008 using the Mental Health Inventory subscale of the short-form 36 V.2.

RESULTS

Mental health selection was shown whereby individuals with common mental health disorders were less likely to move to areas of lower deprivation but more likely to move to areas of greater deprivation.

CONCLUSION

Poor mental health seems to drive health selection in a similar way to poor physical health. Therefore, funding targeted at areas of higher deprivation should consider the demand to be potentially higher as individuals with poor mental health may migrate into that area.

Are cities good for health? A study of the impacts of planned urbanization in China

Background

Urbanization in developing countries is usually accompanied by migration to cities, making it a challenge to unpack the independent relationships between migration, urbanization and health, particularly in the presence of health-selective migration. Since 1978, unprecedented planned urbanization has taken place in China and further increases to the urban population are expected. This paper explored the impacts of urbanization in China through a comparative study of in situ urbanized population.

Methods

Using the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), a nationally representative dataset for people aged 45 years or older, we compared self-assessed general health, depressive symptoms and waist circumference among three groups: (i) in situ urbanized-rural residents; (ii) rural residents; and (iii) urban residents. Using a model informed by the literature on the social determinants of health in later life, we investigated the patterning and drivers of differences in health outcomes between these three groups, in order to explore the impact of urbanization independent of the impact of migration.

Results

There are consistent advantages in health and less depression among urbanized-rural residents compared with the rural group; and this group has even better health outcomes than the urban group after adjusting for early life differences. However, this relationship is reversed for waist circumference. Socioeconomic circumstances and factors related to a planned urbanization partly explain these effects.

Conclusions

Urbanization in China has, on average, had an independent and positive effect on health and well-being. Planned urbanization could benefit people’s health in developing countries. It is likely that improved infrastructure is a key driver.

Does selective migration alter socioeconomic inequalities in mortality in Wales?: a record-linked total population e-cohort study

Recent studies found evidence of health selective migration whereby healthy people move to less deprived areas and less healthy people move to or stay in more deprived areas. There is no consensus, however, on whether this influences health inequalities. Measures of socio-economic inequalities in mortality and life expectancy are widely used by government and health services to track changes over time but do not consider the effect of migration. This study aims to investigate whether and to what extent migration altered the observed socioeconomic gradient in mortality. Data for the population of Wales (3,136,881) registered with the National Health Service on 01/01/2006 and follow-up for 24 quarters were individually record-linked to ONS mortality files. This included moves between lower super output areas (LSOAs), deprivation quintiles and rural-urban class at each quarter, age, sex, and date of death. Cox regression models were used to estimate the hazard ratios for the deprivation quintiles in all-cause mortality, as well as deprivation change between the start and end of the study. We found evidence of health selective migration in some groups, for example people aged under 75 leaving the most deprived areas having a higher mortality risk than those they left behind, suggesting widening inequalities, but also found the opposite pattern for other migration groups. For all ages, those who lived in the most deprived quintile had a 57% higher risk of death than those in the least deprived quintile, allowing deprivation to vary with moves over time. There was little change in this risk when people were artificially kept in their deprivation quintile of origin (54% higher). Overall, migration during the six year window did not substantially alter the deprivation gradient in mortality in Wales between 2006 and 2011.

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Health selective migration was found for selected subgroups.

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Change to inequalities varied by direction of deprivation change and age group.

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Migration overall did not alter the socioeconomic gradient in mortality in Wales.

Twenty years of socioeconomic inequalities in premature mortality in Barcelona: The influence of population and neighbourhood changes

The objective of this study was to analyse trends in socioeconomic inequalities in premature mortality in Barcelona from 1992 to 2011, accounting for population changes. We conducted a repeated cross-sectional study of the Barcelona population (25-64 years) using generalized linear mixed models for trend analysis, and found that socioeconomic inequalities in premature mortality persisted between neighbourhoods, but tended to diminish. However, the reduction in inequality was related to an increase in the number of foreign-born individuals mainly in socioeconomic disadvantaged neighbourhoods, in which the decrease in premature mortality was more marked. To study trends in geographical inequalities in mortality, it is essential to understand demographic changes occurred in different places related to local levels of deprivation.

How much of the difference in life expectancy between Scottish cities does deprivation explain?

BACKGROUND

Glasgow's low life expectancy and high levels of deprivation are well documented. Studies comparing Glasgow to similarly deprived cities in England suggest an excess of deaths in Glasgow that cannot be accounted for by deprivation. Within Scotland comparisons are more equivocal suggesting deprivation could explain Glasgow's excess mortality. Few studies have used life expectancy, an intuitive measure that quantifies the between-city difference in years. This study aimed to use the most up-to-date data to compare Glasgow to other Scottish cities and to (i) evaluate whether deprivation could account for lower life expectancy in Glasgow and (ii) explore whether the age distribution of mortality in Glasgow could explain its lower life expectancy.

METHODS

Sex specific life expectancy was calculated for 2007-2011 for the population in Glasgow and the combined population of Aberdeen, Dundee and Edinburgh. Life expectancy was calculated for deciles of income deprivation, based on the national ranking of datazones, using the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation. Life expectancy in Glasgow overall, and by deprivation decile, was compared to that in Aberdeen, Dundee and Edinburgh combined, and the life expectancy difference decomposed by age using Arriaga's discrete method.

RESULTS

Life expectancy for the whole Glasgow population was lower than the population of Aberdeen, Dundee and Edinburgh combined. When life expectancy was compared by national income deprivation decile, Glasgow's life expectancy was not systematically lower, and deprivation accounted for over 90 % of the difference. This was reduced to 70 % of the difference when carrying out sensitivity analysis using city-specific income deprivation deciles. In both analyses life expectancy was not systematically lower in Glasgow when stratified by deprivation. Decomposing the differences in life expectancy also showed that the age distribution of mortality was not systematically different in Glasgow after accounting for deprivation.

CONCLUSIONS

Life expectancy is not systematically lower across the Glasgow population compared to Aberdeen, Dundee and Edinburgh combined, once deprivation is accounted for. This provides further evidence that tackling deprivation in Glasgow would probably reduce the health inequalities that exist between Scottish cities. The change in the amount of unexplained difference when carrying out sensitivity analysis demonstrates the difficulties in comparing socioeconomic deprivation between populations, even within the same country and when applying an established ecological measure. Although the majority of health inequality between Glasgow and other Scottish cities is explained by deprivation, the difference in the amount of unexplained inequality depending on the relative context of deprivation used demonstrates the challenges associated with attributing mortality inequalities to an independent 'place effect'.

Perspectives on differing health outcomes by city: accounting for Glasgow's excess mortality

Several health outcomes (including mortality) and health-related behaviors are known to be worse in Scotland than in comparable areas of Europe and the United Kingdom. Within Scotland, Greater Glasgow (in West Central Scotland) experiences disproportionately poorer outcomes independent of measurable variation in socioeconomic status and other important determinants. Many reasons for this have been proposed, particularly related to deprivation, inequalities, and variation in health behaviors. The use of models (such as the application of Bradford Hill's viewpoints on causality to the different hypotheses) has provided useful insights on potentially causal mechanisms, with health behaviors and inequalities likely to represent the strongest individual candidates. This review describes the evolution of our understanding of Glasgow's excess mortality, summarizes some of the key work in this area, and provides some suggestions for future areas of exploration. In the context of demographic change, the experience in Glasgow is an important example of the complexity that frequently lies behind observed variations in health outcomes within and between populations. A comprehensive explanation of Glasgow's excess mortality may continue to remain elusive, but is likely to lie in a complex and difficult-to-measure interplay of health determinants acting at different levels in society throughout the life course. Lessons learned from the detailed examination of different potentially causative determinants in Scotland may provide useful methodological insights that may be applied in other settings. Ongoing efforts to unravel the causal mechanisms are needed to inform public health efforts to reduce health inequalities and improve outcomes in Scotland.

Residential mobility and the association between physical environment disadvantage and general and mental health

BACKGROUND

Selective migration may influence the association between physical environments and health. This analysis assessed whether residential mobility concentrates people with poor health in neighbourhoods of the UK with disadvantaged physical environments.

METHODS

Data were from the British Household Panel Survey. Moves were over 1 year between adjacent survey waves, pooled over 10 pairs of waves, 1996-2006. Health outcomes were self-reported poor general health and mental health problems. Neighbourhood physical environment was defined using the Multiple Environmental Deprivation Index (MEDIx) for wards. Logistic regression analysis compared risk of poor health in MEDIx categories before and after moves. Analyses were stratified by age groups 18-29, 30-44, 45-59 and 60+ years and adjusted for age, sex, marital status, household type, housing tenure, education and social class.

RESULTS

The pooled data contained 122 570 observations. 8.5% moved between survey waves but just 3.0% changed their MEDIx category. In all age groups odds ratios for poor general and mental health were not significantly increased in the most environmentally deprived neighbourhoods following moves.

CONCLUSIONS

Over a 1-year time period residential moves between environments with different levels of multiple physical deprivation were rare and did not significantly raise rates of poor health in the most deprived areas.

Spatial inequalities in life expectancy within postindustrial regions of Europe: a cross-sectional observational study

OBJECTIVES

To compare spatial inequalities in life expectancy (LE) in West Central Scotland (WCS) with nine other postindustrial European regions.

DESIGN

A cross-sectional observational study.

SETTING

WCS and nine other postindustrial regions across Europe.

PARTICIPANTS

Data for WCS and nine other comparably deindustrialised European regions were analysed. Male and female LEs at birth were obtained or calculated for the mid-2000s for 160 districts within selected regions. Districts were stratified into two groups: small (populations of between 141 000 and 185 000 people) and large (populations between 224 000 and 352 000). The range and IQR in LE were used to describe within-region disparities.

RESULTS

In small districts, the male LE range was widest in WCS and Merseyside, while the IQR was widest in WCS and Northern Ireland. For women, the LE range was widest in WCS, though the IQR was widest in Northern Ireland and Merseyside. In large districts, the range and IQR in LE was widest in WCS and Wallonia for both sexes.

CONCLUSIONS

Subregional spatial inequalities in LE in WCS are wide compared with other postindustrial mainland European regions, especially for men. Future research could explore the contribution of economic, social and political factors in reducing these inequalities.

Are health inequalities between differently deprived areas evident at different ages? A longitudinal study of census records in England and Wales, 1991-2001

The notion that mortality inequalities between differently deprived areas vary by age is logical since not all causes of death increase in risk with age and not all causes of death are related to the gradient of deprivation. In addition to the cause-age and cause-deprivation relationships, population migration may redistribute the population such that the health-deprivation relationship varies by age. We calculate cross-sectional all cause mortality and self-reported limiting long-term illness (LLTI) rate ratios of most to least deprived areas to demonstrate inequalities at different ages. We use longitudinal data to investigate whether there are changes in the distribution of cohorts between differently deprived areas over time and whether gradients of LLTI with deprivation also change. We find similar deprivation inequalities by age for all cause mortality and self-reported health with less inequality for young adults and the elderly but the greatest inequalities during mid life. Over time there are systematic movements of cohorts between differently deprived areas and associated increases and decreases in the gradient of LLTI across deprivation. It seems likely that population migration does influence inequalities by age. Further work should investigate whether the situation exists for other morbidities and, to better inform public health policy, whether restricting summary measures of area health to ages between 30 and 60 when inequalities are greatest will highlight between area differences.

The combined impact of rural residence and socio-economic status on premature mortality

The health of rural and urban populations differs, with rural areas appearing healthier. However, it is unknown whether the benefit of living in rural areas is felt by individuals in all levels of deprivation, or whether some suffer a disadvantage of rural residence. For England and Wales 2001-2003 premature mortality rates were calculated, subdivided by individual deprivation and gender, for areas with differing rurality characteristics. Premature mortality data (age 50-retirement) and a measure of the individual's deprivation (National Statistics Socio-economic Classification 1-7) was obtained from death certificates. Overall premature mortality was examined as well as premature mortality subdivided by major cause. Male premature mortality rates (age 50-64) fell with increasing rurality for individuals in all socio-economic status classifications. The most deprived individuals benefitted most from residence in increasingly rural areas. Similar trends were observed when premature mortality was subdivided by the major causes of death. Female premature mortality rates (age 50-59) demonstrated similar trends but the differences between urban and rural areas were less marked.