Drawing light from the pandemic: Rethinking strategies for health policy and beyond

Prediction of viral spillover risk based on the mass action principle

Infectious zoonotic disease emergence, through spillover events, is of global concern and has the potential to cause significant harm to society, as recently demonstrated by COVID-19. More than 70% of the 400 infectious diseases that emerged in the past five decades have a zoonotic origin, including all recent pandemics. There have been several approaches used to predict the risk of spillover through some of the known or suspected infectious disease emergence drivers, largely using correlative approaches. Here, we predict the spatial distribution of spillover risk by approximating general transmission through animal and human interactions. These mass action interactions are approximated through the multiplication of the spatial distribution of zoonotic virus diversity and human population density. Although our results indicate higher risk in regions along the equator and in Southeast Asia where both virus diversity and human population density are high, it should be noted that this is primarily a conceptual exercise. We compared our spillover risk map to key factors, including the model inputs of zoonotic virus diversity estimate map, human population density map, and the spatial distribution of species richness. Despite the limitations of this approach, this viral spillover map is a step towards developing a more comprehensive spillover risk prediction system to inform global monitoring.

Health literacy, governance and systems leadership contribute to the implementation of the One Health approach: a virtuous circle

One Health is an important approach to addressing health threats and promoting health through interdisciplinary health, policy, legislation and leadership research to achieve better human and animal health and better outcomes for the planet. The Covid-19 pandemic has triggered an urgent awareness of the need to develop innovative integrative solutions to address root causes of such threats to health, which requires collaboration across disciplines and amongst different sectors and communities. We explore how achieving the Quadripartite Organizations' One Health Joint Plan of Action can be supported by the concepts of 'One Health literacy' and 'One Health governance' and promote both academic and policy dialogue. We show how One Health literacy and One Health governance influence and reinforce each other, while an interdisciplinary systems leadership approach acts as a catalyst and mechanism for understanding and enacting change. Based on our understanding of how these elements influence the implementation of the One Health approach, we describe a model for considering how external triggering events such as the Covid-19 pandemic may prompt a virtuous circle whereby exposure to and exploration of One Health issues may lead to improved One Health literacy and to better governance. We close with recommendations to international organisations, national governments and to leaders in policy, research and practice to enhance their influence on society, the planetary environment, health and well-being.

The continuum of care as a unifying framework for intergenerational and interspecies health equity

Introduction

Unlocking the full potential of different people and organizations to address existential health threats requires shared goals and frameworks that allow people to see themselves contributing to a common and shared continuum of care. A new narrative to help people implement collective action for collective problems is needed.

Methods

This paper is draw from the co-authors experience working from the local to international level on planetary health problems.

Results

The proposed conceptual framework expands the socioecological model of health to help formulate multilevel approaches that foster healthier circumstances for all by revealing the mutual benefits that emerge from pooling expertise, funding, and political will to solve multiple problems with coordinated investment of resources and effort. It is intended to support program planning and communication. This framework is a response to the absence of systematic attempts to concurrently counteract the social and environmental conditions leading to disease, dysfunction and deficits which is increasingly seen as being problematic, especially as the root causes of health problems and solutions converge across species, sectors, and generations. The framework is embedded in the idea of interspecies and intergenerational health equity.

Discussion

Ensuring interspecies and intergenerational health equity requires each actor to fulfill their roles along the continuum while supporting the needs of others. A socio-ecological continuum of care provides bundled options that combine knowledge from different sectors, disciplines and perspectives to guide interventions over time across a comprehensive array of services and support spanning all levels of needs, species and generations.

Resilient health systems for already resilient countries? Pandemic discourses in the post-COVID-19 era

This study aimed to reconstruct and analyze the discourses of the pandemic in the post-COVID-19 era. The methodology was based on a critical review of the scientific literature on the pandemic, selecting 80 non-biomedical, clinical, or pharmacological articles published in journals indexed in Scopus or Web of Science from a sample of the 500 most cited scientific articles on the pandemic in Google Scholar. The theoretical approach was based on the debates on predictability, unpredictability, determination, and indeterminacy in the health and social sciences. As a result, six theses on the pandemic were identified and analyzed: a) the thesis of the unpredictability of pandemics; b) the thesis of pandemic denial; c) the thesis of the pandemic as a failure in predictability systems; d) the thesis of the prevention of catastrophic events with timely interventions; e) the thesis of the structural postponement of predictive care by non-developed countries; and f) the environmentalist-health thesis, of foreseeing a critical phase for the planet and humanity. We concluded on the limits of resilience as the center in preparing Latin American health systems in the post-pandemic.

The launch of the EU Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Authority (HERA): Improving global pandemic preparedness?

The crowded global health landscape has been joined by the European Union Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Authority (HERA). HERA will assume four broad areas of responsibility: horizon scanning for major health threats; research and development; support for capacity to manufacture drugs, vaccines, and equipment; and procuring and stockpiling key medical countermeasures. In this Health Reform Monitor article, we outline the reform process and describe HERA's structure and responsibilities, explore issues that arise from the creation of this new organisation, and suggest options for collaboration with existing bodies in Europe and beyond. The COVID-19 pandemic and other infectious disease outbreaks have shown the need to treat health as a cross-border issue, and there is now a broad consensus that greater direction and coordination at the European level is needed. This ambition has been matched with a considerable increase in EU funding to tackle cross-border health threats, and HERA can be used to deploy this funding in an effective manner. Yet this is contingent upon clearly defining its role and responsibilities vis-à-vis existing agencies to reduce redundancies.

Divergent COVID-19 vaccine policies: policy mapping of ten European countries

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the fragmented nature of governmental policy decisions in Europe. However, the extent to which COVID-19 vaccination policies differed in various European countries remains unclear. Here, we mapped the COVID-19 vaccination policies that were in force in January 2022 as well as booster regulations as of April 2022 in Austria, Denmark, England, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, and Spain.

Methods

National public health and health policy experts from these ten European nations developed and completed an electronic questionnaire. The questionnaire included a series of questions that addressed six critical components of vaccine implementation, including (1) authorization, (2) prioritization, (3) procurement and distribution, (4) data collection, (5) administration, and (6) mandate requirements.

Results

Our findings revealed significant variations in COVID-19 vaccination policies across Europe. We observed critical differences in COVID-19 vaccine formulations that were authorized for use as well as the specific groups that were provided with priority access. We also identified discrepancies in how vaccination-related data were recorded in each country and what vaccination requirements were implemented.

Conclusion

Each of the ten European nations surveyed in this study reported different COVID-19 vaccination policies. These differences complicated efforts to provide a coordinated pandemic response. These findings might alert policymakers in Europe of the need to coordinate their efforts to avoid fostering divergent and socially disruptive policies.

Health systems resilience: is it time to revisit resilience after COVID-19?

The concept of health system resilience has been challenged by the COVID-19 pandemic. Even well-established health systems, considered resilient, collapsed during the pandemic. To revisit the concept of resilience two years and a half after the initial impact of COVID-19, we conducted a qualitative study with 26 international experts in health systems to explore their views on concepts, stages, analytical frameworks, and implementation from a comparative perspective of high- and low-and-middle-income countries (HICs and LMICs). The interview guide was informed by a comprehensive literature review, and all interviewees had practice and academic expertise in some of the largest health systems in the world. Results show that the pandemic did modify experts' views on various aspects of health system resilience, which we summarize and propose as refinements to the current understanding of health systems resilience.

SDG5 "Gender Equality" and the COVID-19 pandemic: A rapid assessment of health system responses in selected upper-middle and high-income countries

Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted healthcare and societies, exacerbating existing inequalities for women and girls across every sphere. Our study explores health system responses to gender equality goals during the COVID-19 pandemic and inclusion in future policies.

Methods

We apply a qualitative comparative approach, drawing on secondary sources and expert information; the data was collected from March-July 2022. Australia, Brazil, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the USA were selected, reflecting upper-middle and high-income countries with established public health and gender policies but different types of healthcare systems and epidemiological and geo-political conditions. Three sub-goals of SDG5 were analyzed: maternity care/reproductive health, gender-based violence, and gender equality/women's leadership.

Results

We found similar trends across countries. Pandemic policies strongly cut into women's health, constrained prevention and support services, and weakened reproductive rights, while essential maternity care services were kept open. Intersecting gender inequalities were reinforced, sexual violence increased and women's leadership was weak. All healthcare systems failed to protect women's health and essential public health targets. Yet there were relevant differences in the responses to increased violence and reproductive rights, ranging from some support measures in Australia to an abortion ban in the US.

Conclusions

Our study highlights a need for revising pandemic policies through a feminist lens.

[Changes in sleep patterns and the doom-scrolling (doom-surfing) phenomenon as modifiable risk factors for anxiety due to continuous stress of the COVID-19 pandemic]

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the modifiable daily behavior patterns associated with increased anxiety indicators in the general population in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

The study examined the characteristics of the Russian population (n=7777) of the international multicenter project COMET-G. In particular, variables were targeted to describe deviations in the behavior of adults during the period of application of measures of social isolation in connection with the pandemic, and revealing a relationship with the total score on the Spielberger State Anxiety Scale (STAI-S). Among these variables, experts selected those that could potentially be subject to change in the short term, that is, act as manageable or modifiable risk factors for the development of anxiety. The selected variables were analyzed in a statistical PLS-model to identify indicators that make the most significant contribution to the increase in the total anxiety score.

RESULTS

Our statistical model explained 48.4% of the variability in the STAI-S anxiety total scores related to changes in daily life habits. In particular, doom-scrolling/doom-surfing about the spread of the virus and the COVID-19 pandemic, changes in sleep patterns and usual daily life activities due to social isolation measures presented as factors significantly contributing to the increase of state anxiety.

CONCLUSION

Given the manageable or modifiable risk factors that we have identified, public awareness and therapeutic recommendations, pointing to the need to (I) control the amount of time spent in the internet and monitor their internet-based content consumption, (II) regulate sleep-wake patterns, (III) maintain daily habits and household activities, may reduce the likelihood of developing anxiety disorders in the context of the impact of a global chronic stress due to the COVID-19 pandemic and associated social isolation measures.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on diabetes services: planning for a global recovery

The COVID-19 pandemic has disproportionately affected certain groups, such as older people (ie, >65 years), minority ethnic populations, and people with specific chronic conditions including diabetes, cardiovascular disease, kidney disease, and some respiratory diseases. There is now evidence of not only direct but also indirect adverse effects of COVID-19 in people with diabetes. Recurrent lockdowns and public health measures throughout the pandemic have restricted access to routine diabetes care, limiting new diagnoses, and affecting self-management, routine follow-ups, and access to medications, as well as affecting lifestyle behaviours and emotional wellbeing globally. Pre-pandemic studies have shown that short-term delays in delivery of routine care, even by 12 months, are associated with adverse effects on risk factor control and worse microvascular, macrovascular, and mortality outcomes in people with diabetes. Disruptions within the short-to-medium term due to natural disasters also result in worse diabetes outcomes. However, the true magnitude of the indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on long-term outcomes and mortality in people with diabetes is still unclear. Disasters tend to exacerbate existing health disparities; as we recover ambulatory diabetes services in the aftermath of the pandemic, there is an opportunity to prioritise those with the greatest need, and to target resources and interventions aimed at improving outcomes and reducing inequality.

Structure and inhibition of SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2 main proteases by oral antiviral compound AG7404

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronaviruses 1 and 2 (SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2) pose a threat to global public health. The 3C-like main protease (M^pro), which presents structural similarity with the active site domain of enterovirus 3C protease, is one of the best-characterized drug targets of these viruses. Here we studied the antiviral activity of the orally bioavailable enterovirus protease inhibitor AG7404 against SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2 from a structural, biochemical, and cellular perspective, comparing it with the related molecule rupintrivir (AG7800). Crystallographic structures of AG7404 in complex with SARS-CoV-1 M^pro and SARS-CoV-2 M^pro and of rupintrivir in complex with SARS-CoV-2 M^pro were solved, revealing that all protein residues interacting with the inhibitors are conserved between the two proteins. A detailed analysis of protein-inhibitor interactions indicates that AG7404 has a better fit to the active site of the target protease than rupintrivir. This observation was further confirmed by biochemical FRET assays showing IC₅₀ values of 47 μM and 101 μM for AG7404 and rupintrivir, respectively, in the case of SARS-CoV-2 M^pro. Equivalent IC₅₀ values for SARS-CoV-1 also revealed greater inhibitory capacity of AG7404, with a value of 29 μM vs. 66 μM for rupintrivir. Finally, the antiviral activity of the two inhibitors against SARS-CoV-2 was confirmed in a human cell culture model of SARS-CoV-2 infection, although rupintrivir showed a higher potency and selectivity index in this assay.

It was good while it lasted: politics is at the heart of public health but are we willing to engage?

This paper, written to mark the 50th anniversary of the Faculty of Public Health, reflects on the challenges to governance in a United Kingdom outside the European Union. Drawing on Virchow's call to address the political determinants of health, it describes a situation in which the current government consistently displays disregard for the institutions of state, and the principles on which they are based, such as honesty and the rule of law. It argues that this is a departure from the past and that it undermines the trust that is essential for effective public health policies that attract public support. It ends with a challenge to the public health establishment in the United Kingdom to decide whether they will challenge the decline in public standards, and thus promote structures that can consider and prioritize health or continue to pick up the pieces of political failings.

Healthcare Workers' Perceptions and Medically Approved COVID-19 Infection Risk: Understanding the Mental Health Dimension of the Pandemic. A German Hospital Case Study

Introduction

This study analyses how healthcare workers (HCWs) perceived risks, protection and preventive measures during the COVID-19 pandemic in relation to medically approved risks and organizational measures. The aim is to explore “blind spots” of pandemic protection and make mental health needs of HCWs visible.

Methods

We have chosen an “optimal-case” scenario of a high-income country with a well-resourced hospital sector and low HCW infection rate at the organizational level to explore governance gaps in HCW protection. A German multi-method hospital study at Hannover Medical School served as empirical case; document analysis, expert information and survey data (n = 1,163) were collected as part of a clinical study into SARS-CoV-2 serology testing during the second wave of the pandemic (November 2020-February 2021). Selected survey items included perceptions of risks, protection and preventive measures. Descriptive statistical analysis and regression were undertaken for gender, profession and COVID-19 patient care.

Results

The results reveal a low risk of 1% medically approved infections among participants, but a much higher mean personal risk estimate of 15%. The majority (68.4%) expressed “some” to “very strong” fear of acquiring infection at the workplace. Individual protective behavior and compliance with protective workplace measures were estimated as very high. Yet only about half of the respondents felt strongly protected by the employer; 12% even perceived “no” or “little” protection. Gender and contact with COVID-19 patients had no significant effect on the estimations of infection risks and protective workplace behavior, but nursing was correlated with higher levels of personal risk estimations and fear of infection.

Conclusions

A strong mismatch between low medically approved risk and personal risk perceptions of HCWs brings stressors and threats into view, that may be preventable through better information, training/education and risk communication and through investment in mental health and inclusion in pandemic preparedness plans.

Antiviral Activities of High Energy E-Beam Induced Copper Nanoparticles against H1N1 Influenza Virus

The pandemic outbreak of COVID-19 in the year of 2020 that drastically changed everyone's life has raised the urgent and intense need for the development of more efficacious antiviral material. This study was designed to develop copper nanoparticles (Cu NPs) as an antiviral agent and to validate the antiviral activities of developed copper NP. The Cu NPs were synthesized using a high energy electron beam, and the characteristic morphologies and antiviral activities of Cu NPs were evaluated. We found that Cu NPs are of spherical shape and uniformly distributed, with a diameter of around 100 nm, as opposed to the irregular shape of commercially available copper microparticles (Cu MPs). An X-ray diffraction analysis showed the presence of Cu and no copper oxide II and I in the Cu NPs. A virus inactivation assay revealed no visible viral DNA after 10- and 30-min treatment of H1N1 virus with the Cu NPs. The infectivity of the Cu NPs-treated H1N1 virus significantly decreased compared with that of the Cu MPs-treated H1N1 virus. The viability of A549 bronchial and Madin-Darby Canine Kidney (MDCK) cells infected with Cu NPs-treated H1N1 was significantly higher than those infected with Cu MPs-treated H1N1 virus. We also found cells infected with Cu NPs-treated H1N1 virus exhibited a markedly decreased presence of virus nucleoprotein (NuP), an influenza virus-specific structural protein, compared with cells infected with Cu MPs-treated H1N1 virus. Taken together, our study shows that Cu NPs are a more effective and efficacious antiviral agent compared with Cu MPs and offer promising opportunities for the prevention of devastatingly infectious diseases.