Global patterns and drivers of influenza decline during the COVID-19 pandemic

Sequence analysis of respiratory syncytial virus cases reveals a novel subgroup -B strain circulating in north-central Italy after pandemic restrictions

BACKGROUND

Following the pandemic restrictions, the epidemiology of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) has changed, leading to intense hospitalization peaks.

OBJECTIVES

This study, conducted at multiple sites in Italy, aimed to describe the temporal dynamics of two post-COVID-19 RSV epidemics. Additionally, the circulating RSV-A and -B lineages were characterized and compared to those found in 2018 and 2019.

STUDY DESIGN

Respiratory specimens and data were collected from RSV-positive patients, both inpatients, and outpatients, of all ages at three sites in north-central Italy. To analyze these samples, roughly one-sixth were sequenced in the attachment glycoprotein G gene and subjected to phylogenetic and mutational analyses, including pre-pandemic sequences from north-central Italy.

RESULTS

The first post-pandemic surge of RSV cases was quite intense, occurring from October 2021 to early January 2022. The subsequent RSV epidemic (from November 2022 to early March 2023) also had a high impact, characterized by a rise in elderly patient cases. Post-pandemic cases of RSV-A were caused by various strains present in Italy prior to COVID-19. In contrast, a distinct RSV-B lineage, which was concurrently spreading in other countries, was identified as the main cause of the surge in 2022-2023 but remained undetected in Italy before the pandemic.

CONCLUSIONS

This study describes the temporal dynamics of post-pandemic RSV subgroups and uncovers a lineage of RSV-B with high genetic divergence that may have increased the impact of decreased population immunity.

Attitudes, Beliefs, and Intention to Receive a COVID-19 Vaccine for Pediatric Patients With Sickle Cell Disease

Sickle cell disease (SCD), which occurs primarily in individuals of African descent, has been identified as a preexisting health condition for COVID-19 with higher rates of hospitalization, intensive care unit admissions, and death. National data indicate Black individuals have higher rates of vaccine hesitancy and lower COVID-19 vaccination rates. Understanding the key predictors of intention to receive a COVID-19 vaccine is essential as intention is strongly associated with vaccination behavior. This multisite study examined attitudes, beliefs, intentions to receive COVID-19 vaccines, and educational preferences among adolescents, young adults, and caregivers of children living with SCD. Participants completed an online survey between July 2021 and March 2022. Multivariate logistic regression was used to examine the association between participant age and COVID-19 vaccine attitudes, beliefs, and vaccine intentions. Of the 200 participants, 65.1% of adolescents, 62.5% of young adults, and 48.4% of caregivers intended to receive a COVID-19 vaccine for themselves or their child. Perception that the vaccine was safe was statistically significant and associated with patient and caregiver intention to receive the COVID-19 vaccine for themselves or their child. Participant age was also statistically significant and associated with the intent to get a booster for patients. Study findings highlight key concerns and influencers identified by patients with SCD and their caregivers that are essential for framing COVID-19 vaccine education during clinical encounters. Study results can also inform the design of messaging campaigns for the broader pediatric SCD population and targeted interventions for SCD subpopulations (eg, adolescents, caregivers).

Outbreak of influenza and SARS-CoV-2 at the Armed Forces of the Philippines Health Service Education and Training Center, September 25-October 10, 2023

In the last week of September 2023, a surge of influenza-like illness was observed among students of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) Health Service Education and Training Center, where 48 (27 males and 21 females; age in years: mean 33, range 27-41) of 247 military students at the Center presented with respiratory symptoms. Between September 25 and October 10, 2023, all 48 symptomatic students were evaluated with real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction and sequencing for both influenza and SARS-CoV-2. Thirteen (27%) students were found positive for influenza A/H3 only, 6 (13%) for SARS-CoV-2 only, and 4 (8%) were co-infected with influenza A/H3 and SARS-CoV-2. Seventeen influenza A/ H3N2 viruses belonged to the same clade, 3C.2a1b.2a.2a.3a, and 4 SARSCoV-2 sequences belonged to the JE1.1 lineage, indicating a common source outbreak for both. The influenza A/H3N2 circulating virus belonged to a different clade than the vaccine strain for 2023 (3C.2a1b.2a.2a). Only 4 students had received the influenza vaccine for 2023. In response, the AFP Surgeon General issued a memorandum to all military health institutions on October 19, 2023 that mandated influenza vaccination as a prerequisite for enrollment of students at all education and training centers, along with implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions and early notification and testing of students exhibiting influenza-like-illness.

Risk Factors for Severe COVID-19 Among Children and Adolescents Enrolled in Acute Respiratory Infection Sentinel Surveillance in South Africa, 2020-2022

BACKGROUND

Identifying children at risk for severe COVID-19 disease from severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) may guide future mitigation interventions. Using sentinel surveillance data, we aimed to identify risk factors for SARS-CoV-2-associated hospitalisation among patients aged ≤ 18 years with respiratory illness.

METHODS

From April 2020 to March 2022, patients meeting study case definitions were enrolled at four outpatient influenza-like illness (ILI) and five inpatient severe respiratory infection (SRI) surveillance sites and tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection using polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Each ILI clinic shared a catchment area with its corresponding SRI hospital. Potential risk factors for SARS-CoV-2-associated hospitalisation were analysed using multivariable logistic regression by comparing inpatient versus outpatient SARS-CoV-2 cases.

RESULTS

Of 4688 participants aged ≤ 18 years, 4556 (97%) with complete PCR and HIV data were included in the analysis. Among patients with ILI and SRI, 92/1145 (8%) and 154/3411 (5%) tested SARS-CoV-2 positive, respectively. Compared to outpatients, hospitalised SARS-CoV-2 cases were associated with age < 6 months ([adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 8.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.7-24.0] versus 1-4 years); underlying medical condition other than HIV [aOR 5.8, 95% CI 2.3-14.6]; laboratory-confirmed Omicron BA.1/BA.2 or Delta variant ([aOR 4.9, 95% CI 1.7-14.2] or [aOR 2.8, 95% CI 1.1-7.3] compared to ancestral SARS-CoV-2); and respiratory syncytial virus coinfection [aOR 6.2, 95% CI 1.0-38.5].

CONCLUSION

Aligning with previous research, we identified age < 6 months or having an underlying condition as risk factors for SARS-CoV-2-associated SRI hospitalisation and demonstrated the potential of sentinel surveillance to monitor COVID-19 in children.

Integrating dynamical modeling and phylogeographic inference to characterize global influenza circulation

Global seasonal influenza circulation involves a complex interplay between local (seasonality, demography, host immunity) and global factors (international mobility) shaping recurrent epidemic patterns. No studies so far have reconciled the two spatial levels, evaluating the coupling between national epidemics, considering heterogeneous coverage of epidemiological and virological data, integrating different data sources. We propose a novel combined approach based on a dynamical model of global influenza spread (GLEAM), integrating high-resolution demographic and mobility data, and a generalized linear model of phylogeographic diffusion that accounts for time-varying migration rates. Seasonal migration fluxes across global macro-regions simulated with GLEAM are tested as phylogeographic predictors to provide model validation and calibration based on genetic data. Seasonal fluxes obtained with a specific transmissibility peak time and recurrent travel outperformed the raw air-transportation predictor, previously considered as optimal indicator of global influenza migration. Influenza A subtypes supported autumn-winter reproductive number as high as 2.25 and an average immunity duration of 2 years. Similar dynamics were preferred by influenza B lineages, with a lower autumn-winter reproductive number. Comparing simulated epidemic profiles against FluNet data offered comparatively limited resolution power. The multiscale approach enables model selection yielding a novel computational framework for describing global influenza dynamics at different scales - local transmission and national epidemics vs. international coupling through mobility and imported cases. Our findings have important implications to improve preparedness against seasonal influenza epidemics. The approach can be generalized to other epidemic contexts, such as emerging disease outbreaks to improve the flexibility and predictive power of modeling.

Influenza vaccination before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in the elderly in South Korea

BACKGROUND

Influenza epidemics are a significant cause of mortality and morbidity in older adults; thus, vaccination is recommended. However, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic could affect influenza vaccination.

METHODS

The influenza vaccination rate was estimated from the Korea Community Health Survey data from 2011 to 2021 using Joinpoint regression. We used multiple logistic regression analysis from each two flu seasons data before (2017-18 and 2018-19 seasons) and during (2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons) the COVID-19 pandemic to identify older adults who were not been vaccinated during the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, we stratified changes in influenza vaccination according to the flu season, demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, and health status.

RESULTS

The annual percentage change in influenza non-vaccination rate from 2010-11 to 2018-19 seasons and from 2019-20 to 2020-21 seasons was -8.31% (confidence interval (CI), -9.60 to -7.00) and 11.41% (CI, -3.22 to 28.25), respectively. Compared to before COVID-19, in the 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons, the odds ratio (OR) of non-vaccination was 0.87 (CI, 0.83-0.91) and 1.18 (95% CI, 1.13-1.24), respectively. The decrease in influenza vaccination among older individuals with higher education (OR, 1.24; CI, 1.11-1.39) was greater than that among those with lower education (OR, 1.09; CI, 0.98-1.22). Older individuals with the lowest income level or poor self-rated health showed reduced influenza vaccination.

CONCLUSIONS

We estimated the trends of influenza vaccination and identified subgroups with decreased vaccination rates during the COVID-19 pandemic among older adults in South Korea. Health policy decision-makers, practitioners, and researchers should consider the implications of COVID-19 on changes in influenza vaccination, particularly for older individuals at risk of influenza.

Changes in clinical, demographic, and outcome patterns of children hospitalized with non-SARS-CoV-2 viral low respiratory tract infections before and during the COVID pandemic in Rome, Italy

INTRODUCTION

We performed this study aiming to evaluate changes in epidemiology, clinical presentation and outcomes of children hospitalized for viral lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI).

METHODS

We performed a retrospective study of children younger than 18 years of age hospitalized for LRTIs with a positive respiratory viral testing from 2018 to 2022. We compared need of pediatric intensive care unit (PICU), invasive ventilation, and other respiratory support, viral etiologies, clinical presentations, imaging, and laboratory results in the precovid (2018-2019) and covid (2020-2022) period.

RESULTS

A total of 523 were included in the analysis. In the pandemic period, the detection of influenza was 95% less likely to occur (odds ratio [OR]: 0.05; 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 0.02-0.12; p < .001), likewise the detection of adenovirus was 77% less likely to occur (OR: 0.23; 95% CI: 0.10-0.51; p < .001). In the pandemic period, the number of codetections increased from 15.52% in 2018 to 57.25% in 2022, resulting in a significantly increasing trend (p < .001). The odds of transfer to PICU was more than five times greater during the pandemic period (OR: 5.31; 95% CI: 1.78-15.86; p = .003).

CONCLUSIONS

We found that the pattern of LRTI in children during COVID-19 pandemic significantly changed in terms of etiologies and increased severity.

Quantified impacts of non-pharmaceutical interventions on influenza circulation during the COVID-19 pandemic in 13 African countries, 2020-2022

Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) for SARS-CoV-2 disrupted circulation of influenza. We used data from 13 African countries and generalized linear models to identify associations between levels of NPIs, using the Oxford Stringency Index, and seasonal influenza activity, using parameters derived from 2020-2022 seasonal influenza surveillance. We found that for each step increase in school closings, the average percentage of respiratory specimens testing positive for influenza across the influenza season dropped by 20% (95% CI: 1-38%); no other NPI was significant. These findings may inform interventions to slow influenza circulation in pandemics and possibly during seasonal epidemics.

Frequency of respiratory virus-associated infection among children and adolescents from a tertiary-care hospital in Mexico City

Acute respiratory infections (ARIs) are a major cause of morbidity and mortality among children. The causative pathogens show geographic and seasonal variations. We retrospectively evaluated the frequency and seasonality of respiratory pathogens in children and adolescents (age: 0-19 years) with ARIs treated between January 1, 2021, and March 31, 2022, at a single center in Mexico. Out of 2400 patients, 1,603 were diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 infection and 797 were diagnosed with other common respiratory pathogens (CRPs). Of the 797 patients, 632 were infected with one CRP and 165 with > 2 CRPs. Deaths occurred only in SARS-CoV-2-infected patients. Rhinovirus/Enterovirus, respiratory syncytial virus B, and parainfluenza virus 3 were the most prevalent in cases with single and multiple infections. CRP showed a high frequency between autumn and winter of 2021, with higher incidence of hospitalization compared to COVID-19. The main comorbidities were immunosuppression, cardiovascular disease (CD), and asthma. The frequency of CRPs showed a downward trend throughout the first half of 2021. CRPs increased in single- and co-infection cases between the fourth and fifth waves of COVID-19, probably due to decreased nonpharmaceutical interventions and changes in diagnostic tests. Age, cyanosis (symptom), and immunosuppression (comorbidity) were found to differentiate between SARS-CoV-2 infection and CRP infection.