The relative value of different QALY types

Unravelling Elements of Value of Healthcare and Assessing their Importance Using Evidence from Two Discrete-Choice Experiments in England

BACKGROUND

Health systems are moving towards value-based care, implementing new care models that allegedly aim beyond patient outcomes. Therefore, a policy and academic debate is underway regarding the definition of value in healthcare, the inclusion of costs in value metrics, and the importance of each value element. This study aimed to define healthcare value elements and assess their relative importance (RI) to the public in England.

METHOD

Using data from 26 semi-structured interviews and a literature review, and applying decision-theory axioms, we selected a comprehensive and applicable set of value-based elements. Their RI was determined using two discrete choice experiments (DCEs) based on Bayesian D-efficient DCE designs, with one DCE incorporating healthcare costs expressed as income tax rise. Respondent preferences were analysed using mixed logit models.

RESULTS

Six value elements were identified: additional life-years, health-related quality of life, patient experience, target population size, equity, and cost. The DCE surveys were completed by 402 participants. All utility coefficients had the expected signs and were statistically significant (p < 0.05). Additional life-years (25.3%; 95% confidence interval [CI] 22.5-28.6%) and patient experience (25.2%; 95% CI 21.6-28.9%) received the highest RI, followed by target population size (22.4%; 95% CI 19.1-25.6%) and quality of life (17.6%; 95% CI 15.0-20.3%). Equity had the lowest RI (9.6%; 95% CI 6.4-12.1%), decreasing by 8.8 percentage points with cost inclusion. A similar reduction was observed in the RI of quality of life when cost was included.

CONCLUSION

The public prioritizes value elements not captured by conventional metrics, such as quality-adjusted life-years. Although cost inclusion did not alter the preference ranking, its inclusion in the value metric warrants careful consideration.

Societal Preferences for Subsidizing Treatments Targeting Patients With Advanced Illness: A Discrete Choice Experiment

OBJECTIVES

Cost-effectiveness analyses are increasingly used to inform subvention decisions for moderately life extending treatments but apply several simplifying assumptions that may be inconsistent with public preferences. Contrary to standard assumptions, we hypothesize that societal willingness to allocate public funding toward these treatments is (1) diminishing for incremental improvements in survival and quality of life (QoL) and (2) greater for subvention policies that exclude the oldest old (>80 years).

METHODS

We tested these hypotheses using a web-based discrete choice experiment (n = 425) in Singapore. In each of 5 questions, respondents were shown 2 hypothetical treatments targeting patients with an expected prognosis of 2 months at very poor QoL and asked which treatment they wanted the government to subsidize, if any. Treatments were defined by 4 attributes: cost to the government, age of beneficiaries, expected gain in survival (2-12 months), and QoL (poor, fair, and good).

RESULTS

Latent class models were used to analyze results. Results revealed 2 classes. In the majority class (69.7% of sample), respondents value incremental gains in survival and QoL at a diminishing rate. Their willingness to allocate public funding estimates (Singapore dollars 16 825-91 027 per patient per month) were much higher than traditional cost-effectiveness thresholds. In the second class, respondents were unwilling to subsidize treatments offering less than 2 months of life extension or poor QoL. Neither class preferred subvention policies that exclude the oldest old.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that the Singapore government should consider cost-effectiveness thresholds that rise with increases in life extension. Age-based restrictions should not be imposed.

How should regulatory schemes be optimized to enhance deterrence against medical insurance fraud by enrollees? Evidence from a discrete choice experiment in China

Medical insurance fraud (MIF) poses a substantial global financial challenge, necessitating effective regulatory strategies, especially in China, where such measures are in a critical developmental phase. This study investigates the effectiveness of various regulatory components in deterring MIF among enrollees and explores preference heterogeneity among individuals with different characteristics, utilizing a discrete choice experiment survey. Grounded in deterrence theory, our conceptual framework incorporates five attributes: intensity of economic penalties, restrictions on medical insurance benefits, deterioration of social reputation, and certainty and celerity of penalties. Employing a D-efficiency design, 24 choice sets were generated and blocked into three versions. A multistage stratified sampling method was adopted to collect data from the basic medical insurance enrollees in Shanghai. The survey was conducted from September to October 2022. The sample representativeness was further improved via the entropy balancing approach. Data from the final sample of 1034 respondents were analyzed using mixed logit models (MIXLs), incorporating interactions with individual characteristics to assess preference heterogeneity. Results reveal that escalating economic penalties, suspending insurance benefits, listing individuals as unfaithful parties, ensuring penalty certainty, and expediting enforcement significantly enhance the deterrent effect. We observed preference heterogeneity across different demographics, including age, gender, education, health status, and employment status. The study underscores the pivotal role of economic penalties in deterring MIF, while also acknowledging the significance of non-economic measures such as enforcement efficiency and social sanctions. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers to tailor and strengthen regulatory schemes against MIF, contributing to the advancement of more effective and precise healthcare policies.

Rationale, conceptual issues, and resultant protocol for a mixed methods Person Trade Off (PTO) and qualitative study to estimate and understand the relative value of gains in health for children and young people compared to adults

BACKGROUND

Economic evaluation of healthcare typically assumes that an identical health gain to different patients has the same social value. There is some evidence that the public may give greater value to gains for children and young people, although this evidence is not always consistent. We present a mixed methods study protocol where we aim to explore public preferences regarding health gains to children and young people relative to adults, in an Australian setting.

METHODS

This study is a Person Trade Off (PTO) choice experiment that incorporates qualitative components. Within the PTO questions, respondents will be asked to choose between treating different groups of patients that may differ in terms of patient characteristics and group size. PTO questions will be included in an online survey to explore respondent views on the relative value of health gains to different age groups in terms of extending life and improving different aspects of quality of life. The survey will also contain attitudinal questions to help understand the impact of question style upon reported preferences. Additionally, the study will test the impact of forcing respondents to express a preference between two groups compared with allowing them to report that the two groups are equivalent. One-to-one 'think aloud', semi-structured interviews will be conducted to explore a sub-sample of respondents' motivations and views in more detail. Focus groups will be conducted with members of the public to discuss the study findings and explore their views on the role of public preferences in health care prioritisation based on patient age.

DISCUSSION

Our planned study will provide valuable information to healthcare decision makers in Australia who may need to decide whether to pay more for health gains for children and young people compared with adults. Additionally, the methodological test of forcing respondent choice or allowing them to express equivalence will contribute towards developing best practice methods in PTO studies. The rationale for and advantages of the study approach and potential limitations are discussed in the protocol.

Problems with NICE's severity weights

This essay examines the implications, plausibility, and justification of the severity weighting that NICE (The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence) has endorsed for technology assessments in the U.K. It argues that the assignment by NICE of additional weights to health conditions which involve a large absolute or proportional shortfall of future expected QALYs (Quality-Adjusted Life Years) as compared to those who do not have these health conditions is not well supported and has troubling implications. The literature concerned with attitudes toward prioritizing severity has found a variety of notions of severity, and it is questionable to what extent those studies bear on whether to assign greater weights to health states involving large absolute or proportional shortfalls. In addition, the severity weighting is not well supported by either egalitarian or prioritarian political philosophy, because it is concerned only with the future and focuses only on health rather than well-being in general.

QALY-type preference and willingness-to-pay among end-of-life patients with cancer treatments: a pilot study using discrete choice experiment

PURPOSE

Quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) is a dominant measurement of health gain in economic evaluations for pricing drugs. However, end-of-life (EoL) patients' preference for QALY gains in life expectancy (LE) and quality of life (QoL) during different disease stages remains unknown and is seldom involved in decision-making. This study aims to measure preferences and willingness-to-pay (WTP) towards different types of QALY gain among EoL cancer patients.

METHODS

We attributed QALY gain to four types, gain in LE and QoL, respectively, and during both progression-free survival (PFS) and post-progression survival (PPS). A discrete choice experiment including five attributes (the four QALY attributes and one cost attribute) with three levels each was developed and conducted with 85 Chinese advanced non-small cell lung cancer patients in 2022. All levels were set with QALY gain/cost synthesised from research on anti-lung cancer drugs recently listed by Chinese National Healthcare Security Administration. Each respondent answered six choice tasks in a face-to-face interview. The data were analysed using mixed logit models.

RESULTS

Patients valued LE-related QALY gain in PFS most, with a relative importance of 81.8% and a WTP of $43,160 [95% CI 26,751 ~ 59,569] per QALY gain. Respondents consistently preferred LE-related to QoL-related QALY gain regardless of disease stage. Patients with higher income or lower education levels tended to pay more for QoL-related QALY gain.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest a prioritised resource allocation to EoL-prolonging health technologies. Given the small sample size and large individual heterogeneity, a full-scale study is needed to provide more robust results.

Systematic Review of the Relative Social Value of Child and Adult Health

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to synthesise knowledge on the relative social value of child and adult health.

METHODS

Quantitative and qualitative studies that evaluated the willingness of the public to prioritise treatments for children over adults were included. A search to September 2023 was undertaken. Completeness of reporting was assessed using a checklist derived from Johnston et al. Findings were tabulated by study type (matching/person trade-off, discrete choice experiment, willingness to pay, opinion survey or qualitative). Evidence in favour of children was considered in total, by length or quality of life, methodology and respondent characteristics.

RESULTS

Eighty-eight studies were included; willingness to pay (n = 9), matching/person trade-off (n = 12), discrete choice experiments (n = 29), opinion surveys (n = 22) and qualitative (n = 16), with one study simultaneously included as an opinion survey. From 88 studies, 81 results could be ascertained. Across all studies irrespective of method or other characteristics, 42 findings supported prioritising children, while 12 provided evidence favouring adults in preference to children. The remainder supported equal prioritisation or found diverse or unclear views. Of those studies considering prioritisation within the under 18 years of age group, nine findings favoured older children over younger children (including for life saving interventions), six favoured younger children and five found diverse views.

CONCLUSIONS

The balance of evidence suggests the general public favours prioritising children over adults, but this view was not found across all studies. There are research gaps in understanding the public's views on the value of health gains to very young children and the motivation behind the public's views on the value of child relative to adult health gains.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

The review is registered at PROSPERO number: CRD42021244593. There were two amendments to the protocol: (1) some additional search terms were added to the search strategy prior to screening to ensure coverage and (2) a more formal quality assessment was added to the process at the data extraction stage. This assessment had not been identified at the protocol writing stage.

Public preferences in healthcare resource allocation: A discrete choice experiment in South Korea

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to explore the public view on priority-setting criteria for healthcare resource allocation. Specifically, it investigates how the value of a quality-adjusted life year (QALY) varies depending on patient characteristics.

METHODS

A discrete choice experiment was conducted using an online sample of the general South Korean population. Respondents were presented with two competing treatment scenarios. The attributes of the scenarios were age at disease onset, life expectancy without treatment, life-years gain with treatment, health-related quality of life (HRQoL) without treatment, and HRQoL gains with treatment. Two hundred choice sets were generated and randomly allocated into 20 blocks. A conditional logit model was used to estimate the factors affecting the respondents' choices.

RESULTS

A total of 3,482 respondents completed the survey. The larger the QALY gain, the more likely it was that the scenario would be chosen but with a diminishing marginal value. Respondents prioritized 40-year-old patients over 5-year-olds and 5-year-olds over 70-year-olds and prioritized baseline HRQoL of 40% and 60% over 20%. Patients at the end of life were not preferred to those with a longer life expectancy.

CONCLUSION

Overall, respondents preferred health-maximizing options without explicit consideration for end-of-life patients or those with poor health. In addition, they revealed a kinked preference for patient age, prioritizing middle-aged patients over children and older people.

Preparing for future pandemics: A multi-national comparison of health and economic trade-offs

Government investment in preparing for pandemics has never been more relevant. The COVID-19 pandemic has stimulated debate regarding the trade-offs societies are prepared to make between health and economic activity. What is not known is: (1) how much the public in different countries are prepared to pay in forgone GDP to avoid mortality from future pandemics; and (2) which health and economic policies the public in different countries want their government to invest in to prepare for and respond to the next pandemic. Using a future-focused, multi-national discrete choice experiment, we quantify these trade-offs and find that the tax-paying public is prepared to pay $3.92 million USD (Canada), $4.39 million USD (UK), $5.57 million USD (US) and $7.19 million USD (Australia) in forgone GDP per death avoided in the next pandemic. We find the health policies that taxpayers want to invest in before the next pandemic and the economic policies they want activated once the next pandemic hits are relatively consistent across the countries, with some exceptions. Such results can inform economic policy responses and government investment in health policies to reduce the adverse impacts of the next pandemic.

Discrete Choice Experiments in Health State Valuation: A Systematic Review of Progress and New Trends

BACKGROUND

Discrete choice experiments (DCEs) are increasingly used in health state valuation studies.

OBJECTIVE

This systematic review updates the progress and new findings of DCE studies in the health state valuation, covering the period since the review of June 2018 to November 2022. The review reports the methods that are currently being used in DCE studies to value health and study design characteristics, and, for the first time, reviews DCE health state valuation studies published in the Chinese language.

METHODS

English language databases PubMed and Cochrane, and Chinese language databases Wanfang and CNKI were searched using the self-developed search terms. Health state valuation or methodology study papers were included if the study used DCE data to generate a value set for a preference-based measure. Key information extracted included DCE study design strategies applied, methods for anchoring the latent coefficient on to a 0-1 QALY scale and data analysis methods.

RESULTS

Sixty-five studies were included; one Chinese language publication and 64 English language publications. The number of health state valuation studies using DCE has rapidly increased in recent years and these have been conducted in more countries than prior to 2018. Wide usage of DCE with duration attributes, D-efficient design and models accounting for heterogeneity has continued in recent years. Although more methodological consensus has been found than in studies conducted prior to 2018, this consensus may be driven by valuation studies for common measures with an international protocol (the 'model' valuation research). Valuing long measures with well-being attributes attracted attention and more realistic design strategies (e.g., inconstant time preference, efficient design and implausible states design) were identified. However, more qualitative and quantitative methodology study is still necessary to evaluate the effect of those new methods.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of DCEs in health state valuation continues to grow dramatically and the methodology progress makes the method more reliable and pragmatic. However, study design is driven by international protocols and method selection is not always justified. There is no gold standard for DCE design, presentation format or anchoring method. More qualitative and quantitative methodology study is recommended to evaluate the effect of new methods before researchers make methodology decisions.

The value of vaccines

Optimizing vaccine spending depends on recognizing the full value of vaccination (VoV). Existing taxonomies of such value are not comprehensive because they are not guided by general theories. I rely on two such theories: subjective-value theory claims that what has value is determined by what people actually or ideally want in life. A welfarist theory of government states that a fundamental objective of government is to promote social value (or social welfare). These jointly imply that any aspect of life that individuals actually or ideally value and that could be negatively affected by vaccine-preventable diseases (and therefore positively affected by preventive vaccines) is an element of VoV. I build a more comprehensive-value taxonomy than currently exists based on this implication.

Estimating Cost-Effectiveness Using Alternative Preference-Based Scores and Within-Trial Methods: Exploring the Dynamics of the Quality-Adjusted Life-Year Using the EQ-5D 5-Level Version and Recovering Quality of Life Utility Index

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to explore quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) and subsequent cost-effectiveness estimates based on the more physical health-focused EQ-5D 5-level version (EQ-5D-5L) value set for England or cross-walked EQ-5D 3-level version UK value set scores or more mental health recovery-focused Recovering Quality of Life Utility Index (ReQoL-UI), when using alternative within-trial statistical methods. We describe possible reasons for the different QALY estimates based on the interaction between item scores, health state profiles, preference-based scores, and mathematical and statistical methods chosen.

METHODS

QALYs are calculated over 8 weeks from a case study 2:1 (intervention:control) randomized controlled trial in patients with anxiety or depression. Complete case and with missing cases imputed using multiple-imputation analyses are conducted, using unadjusted and regression baseline-adjusted QALYs. Cost-effectiveness is judged using incremental cost-effectiveness ratios and acceptability curves. We use previously established psychometric results to reflect on estimated QALYs.

RESULTS

A total of 361 people (241:120) were randomized. EQ-5D-5L crosswalk produced higher incremental QALYs than the value set for England or ReQoL-UI, which produced similar unadjusted QALYs, but contrasting baseline-adjusted QALYs. Probability of cost-effectiveness <£30 000 per QALY ranged from 6% (complete case ReQoL-UI baseline-adjusted QALYs) to 64.3% (multiple-imputation EQ-5D-5L crosswalk unadjusted QALYs). The control arm improved more on average than the intervention arm on the ReQoL-UI, a result not mirrored on the EQ-5D-5L nor condition-specific (Patient-Health Questionnaire-9, depression; Generalized Anxiety Disorder-7, anxiety) measures.

CONCLUSIONS

ReQoL-UI produced contradictory cost-effectiveness results relative to the EQ-5D-5L. The EQ-5D-5L's better responsiveness and "anxiety/depression" and "usual activities" items drove the incremental QALY results. The ReQoL-UI's single physical health item and "personal recovery" construct may have influenced its lower 8-week incremental QALY estimates in this patient sample.

Social acceptability of standard and behavioral economic inspired policies designed to reduce and prevent obesity

The obesity epidemic is a significant public policy issue facing the international community, resulting in substantial costs to individuals and society. Various policies have been suggested to reduce and prevent obesity, including those informed by standard economics (a key feature of which is the assumption that individuals are rational) and behavioral economics (which identifies and harness deviations from rationality). It is not known which policy interventions taxpayers find acceptable and would prefer to fund via taxation. We provide evidence from a discrete choice experiment on an Australian sample of 996 individuals to investigate social acceptability of eight policies: mass media campaign; traffic light nutritional labeling; taxing sugar sweetened beverages; prepaid cards to purchase healthy food; financial incentives to exercise; improved built environment for physical activity; bans on advertising unhealthy food and drink to children; and improved nutritional quality of food sold in public institutions. Latent class analysis revealed three classes differing in preferences and key respondent characteristics including capacity to benefit. Social acceptability of the eight policies at realistic levels of tax increases was explored using post-estimation analysis. Overall, 78% of the sample were predicted to choose a new policy, varying from 99% in those most likely to benefit from obesity interventions to 19% of those least likely to benefit. A policy informed by standard economics, traffic light labeling was the most popular policy, followed by policies involving regulation: bans on junk food advertising to children and improvement of food quality in public institutions. The least popular policies were behaviorally informed: prepaid cards for the purchase of only healthy foods, and financial incentives to exercise.

Coverage and Pricing Recommendations of the French National Health Authority for Innovative Drugs: A Retrospective Analysis From 2014 to 2020

OBJECTIVES

This study provides a retrospective analysis of the recommendations of the French National Health Authority on the reimbursement and pricing of innovative drugs.

METHODS

The analysis includes drugs subjected to both economic and clinical evaluations in France from 2014 to 2020. Ordered logistic and quantile regressions are used to estimate the factors associated with the clinical value (SMR), the clinical added value (ASMR), and the incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) of innovative drugs. All variables used in the regression analyses are extracted from the Clinical and Economic Opinions for the 146 observations.

RESULTS

Regression analyses indicate that 2 of the 5 official criteria, the efficacy-adverse events balance of the drug and its function, are significantly associated with the SMR rating. The ASMR is positively associated with the disease severity, the quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gain provided by the drug, and the validation of the ICUR in the Economic Opinion. At the first quartile of the ICUR distribution (approximately €50 000/QALY), higher ICUR levels are observed for drugs with a smaller target population and for drugs claimed as more innovative. Higher ICUR levels are also observed for pediatric drugs and for drugs with no therapeutic alternative at the third quartile of the distribution (approximately €240 000/QALY).

CONCLUSIONS

Not all official criteria of the SMR are associated with actual ratings obtained. Regarding the ASMR, the results support the idea of a convergence between the 2 independent clinical and economic appraisal processes. Finally, the factors influencing the ICUR level vary across the distribution of ICUR.

Conceptualising 'Benefits Beyond Health' in the Context of the Quality-Adjusted Life-Year: A Critical Interpretive Synthesis

There is growing interest in extending the evaluative space of the quality-adjusted life-year framework beyond health. Using a critical interpretive synthesis approach, the objective was to review peer-reviewed literature that has discussed non-health outcomes within the context of quality-adjusted life-years and synthesise information into a thematic framework. Papers were identified through searches conducted in Web of Science, using forward citation searching. A critical interpretive synthesis allows for the development of interpretations (synthetic constructs) that go beyond those offered in the original sources. The final output of a critical interpretive synthesis is the synthesising argument, which integrates evidence from across studies into a coherent thematic framework. A concept map was developed to show the relationships between different types of non-health benefits. The critical interpretive synthesis was based on 99 papers. The thematic framework was constructed around four themes: (1) benefits affecting well-being (subjective well-being, psychological well-being, capability and empowerment); (2) benefits derived from the process of healthcare delivery; (3) benefits beyond the recipient of care (spillover effects, externalities, option value and distributional benefits); and (4) benefits beyond the healthcare sector. There is a wealth of research concerning non-health benefits and the evaluative space of the quality-adjusted life-year. Further dialogue and debate are necessary to address conceptual and normative challenges, to explore the societal willingness to sacrifice health for benefits beyond health and to consider the equity implications of different courses of action.

What Aspects of Illness Influence Public Preferences for Healthcare Priority Setting? A Discrete Choice Experiment in the UK

BACKGROUND

Decisions on funding new healthcare technologies assume that all health improvements are valued equally. However, public reaction to health technology assessment (HTA) decisions suggests there are health attributes that matter deeply to them but are not currently accounted for in the assessment process. We aimed to determine the relative importance of attributes of illness that influence the value placed on alleviating that illness.

METHOD

We conducted a discrete choice experiment survey that presented general public respondents with 15 funding decisions between hypothetical health conditions. The conditions were defined by five attributes that characterise serious illnesses, plus the health gain from treatment. Respondent preferences were modelled using conditional logistic regression and latent class analysis.

RESULTS

905 members of the UK public completed the survey in November 2017. Respondents generally preferred to provide treatments for conditions with 'better' characteristics. The exception was treatment availability, where respondents preferred to provide treatments for conditions where there is no current treatment, and were prepared to accept lower overall health gain to do so. A subgroup of respondents preferred to prioritise 'worse' health states.

CONCLUSION

This study suggests a preference among the UK public for treating an unmet need; however, it does not suggest a preference for prioritising other distressing aspects of health conditions, such as limited life expectancy, or where patients are reliant on care. Our results are not consistent with the features currently prioritised in UK HTA processes, and the preference heterogeneity we identify presents a major challenge for developing broadly acceptable policy.

Willingness to pay vs lottery equivalent to value the impact of alcohol misuse on quality of life

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the impact of alcohol disorders using lottery equivalent (LE) and willingness to pay (WTP) methods and compute the WTP for a QALY (WTP-Q) derived from these values.

METHODS

Two samples of 300 people valued nine states of alcohol misuse. LE and WTP were used in sample 1 and 2, respectively. The ability to discriminate between methods was tested. Regression models were performed to estimate the preference weights of dimensions. Several values of WTP-Q were obtained by combining the estimated values from both samples.

RESULTS

LE and WTP produce the same ranking of states but LE is more sensitive. The estimated impact of the nine states ranges between 0.91 and 0.22 QALYs, and the WTP for avoiding them ranges between €10,444 and €4132. WTP-Q varies between €11,473 and €19,092 when the mean values of the states are used. The WTP-Q tends to decrease with the severity.

CONCLUSIONS

Although LE and WTP provide values for cost-utility and cost-benefit analyses, respectively, LE seems to be preferable for measuring the impact of alcohol disorders. As the lower sensitivity of WTP seems to explain a WTP-Q decrease with severity, more research is needed before recommending the use of different WTP-Q values.

Population norms for quality adjusted life years for the United States of America, China, the United Kingdom and Australia

Health economics uses quality adjusted life years (QALYs) to help healthcare decision makers. However, unlike life expectancy for which age- and sex-dependent national life tables are available, no general population norms exist to use as a benchmark against which to compare observed or modeled projections of QALYs in sub-populations or patients. We developed a 2-state Markov model to generate QALY population norms for the USA, UK, China and Australia. Annual age- and sex-specific probabilities of all-cause mortality were taken from life tables combined with general population country-specific age- and sex-specific health state utilities for the EQ-5D-3L (all countries); and SF-6D (Australia) multi-attribute utility instruments (MAUI). To validate our QALY benchmark model we found that the model closely predicted population life expectancies. Using EQ-5D-3L, undiscounted QALYs for males/females aged 18 years ranged 54.62/58.90 (USA), 55.55/60.21 (China), 57.11/60.16 (Australia), and 58.01/61.43 (UK) years. SF-6D benchmark QALYs for Australia were consistently lower than those generated from the EQ-5D-3L. The gap in undiscounted QALYs between the UK (highest) and the USA (lowest) was 2.53 QALYs in women and 3.39 QALYs in men aged 18 years. Our model's QALY population norms can be used for internal validation of future health economic models for the country-specific value sets for the instruments that we adopted, and when quantifying burden of disease in terms of QALYs lost due to illness compared to the general population. We have created a publicly available repository to continuously include QALY benchmarks that use country-specific value sets for other MAUIs and life expectancies.

Willingness to Pay for Health-Related Quality of Life Gains in Relation to Disease Severity and the Age of Patients

OBJECTIVES

Decision-making frameworks that draw on economic evaluations increasingly use equity weights to facilitate a more equitable and fair allocation of healthcare resources. These weights can be attached to health gains or reflected in the monetary threshold against which the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of (new) health technologies are evaluated. Currently applied weights are based on different definitions of disease severity and do not account for age-related preferences in society. However, age has been shown to be an important equity-relevant characteristic. This study examines the willingness to pay (WTP) for health-related quality of life (QOL) gains in relation to the disease severity and age of patients, and the outcome of the disease.

METHODS

We obtained WTP estimates by applying contingent-valuation tasks in a representative sample of the public in The Netherlands (n = 2023). We applied random-effects generalized least squares regression models to estimate the effect of patients' disease severity and age, size of QOL gains, disease outcome (full recovery/death 1 year after falling ill), and respondent characteristics on the WTP.

RESULTS

Respondents' WTP was higher for more severely ill and younger patients and for larger-sized QOL gains, but lower for patients who died. However, the relations were nonlinear and context dependent. Respondents with a lower age, who were male, had a higher household income, and a higher QOL stated a higher WTP for QOL gains.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that-if the aim is to align resource-allocation decisions in healthcare with societal preferences-currently applied equity weights do not suffice.

Does the UK-public's aversion to inequalities in health differ by group-labelling and health-gain type? A choice-experiment

Public health policy has two primary aims: promoting population health and reducing health inequalities. When these aims conflict, policy-makers must determine the relative importance to place on each in decision-making. We conducted a computer-based, face-to-face, choice-experiment to explore how the UK-public think government should act in these situations; and to explore how "inequality-aversion" may differ depending on the groups between which a health inequality exists and type of health an intervention provides. We tested three hypotheses: (1) the UK-public are more averse to inequalities in health between socioeconomic groups than they are to inequalities in health between neutrally labelled groups; (2) this difference is, at least in part, driven by the role non-health information plays in determining aversion to inequalities in health between socioeconomic groups; and (3) the UK-public are more willing to prioritise groups with lower lifetime health over groups with higher lifetime health if an intervention improves life-expectancy than if it improves quality-of-life. Eighty people participated in Sheffield and Hull in May/June 2019. Each participant completed three Person-Trade-Off exercises between interventions that would improve population health and reduce health inequalities, or improve population health by a larger amount but increase health inequalities. Participants were randomised to exercises involving scenarios with socioeconomic groups or neutrally-labelled groups, and each answered questions about three health-benefit types: increased life-expectancy; pain-relief; and mobility-improvement. Following the exercises, participants provided rationales for their selections. Respondents were (1) more averse to inequalities in health between socioeconomic groups than neutrally labelled groups. Participant rationales suggest (2) this divergence is partly motivated by factors other than health: for example, financial inequality between socioeconomic groups. The sample was also (3) more willing to prioritise neutrally labelled groups with lower lifetime health if an intervention improves life-expectancy rather than if it improves quality-of-life.

What is it going to be, TTO or SG? A direct test of the validity of health state valuation

Standard gamble (SG) typically yields higher health state valuations than time trade-off (TTO), which may be caused by biases affecting both methods. It has been suggested that TTO yields more accurate health state valuations, because TTO is subject to both upward and downward biases that may cancel out. Verifying this claim, however, would require a golden standard to test validity against. In this study, we attempted to provide a first direct test of the validity of health state valuation. A total of 119 students completed five TTO and SG tasks. Afterwards, their health state valuations elicited with TTO and SG were shown to them in an interactive graph. Respondents were asked to indicate which of the methods represented their valuation of a health state best. They could also adjust their valuation. Overall, we found that respondents indicated that TTO valuations better reflected health state valuations, a result that was more pronounced for more severe health states. When offered the opportunity, on average, respondents adjusted health state valuations downwards. These findings may have implications for future work on (bias correction in) health state valuations.

Diabolical dilemmas of COVID-19: An empirical study into Dutch society's trade-offs between health impacts and other effects of the lockdown

We report and interpret preferences of a sample of the Dutch adult population for different strategies to end the so-called 'intelligent lockdown' which their government had put in place in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a discrete choice experiment, we invited participants to make a series of choices between policy scenarios aimed at relaxing the lockdown, which were specified not in terms of their nature (e.g. whether or not to allow schools to re-open) but in terms of their effects along seven dimensions. These included health-related effects, but also impacts on the economy, education, and personal income. From the observed choices, we were able to infer the implicit trade-offs made by the Dutch between these policy effects. For example, we find that the average citizen, in order to avoid one fatality directly or indirectly related to COVID-19, is willing to accept a lasting lag in the educational performance of 18 children, or a lasting (>3 years) and substantial (>15%) reduction in net income of 77 households. We explore heterogeneity across individuals in terms of these trade-offs by means of latent class analysis. Our results suggest that most citizens are willing to trade-off health-related and other effects of the lockdown, implying a consequentialist ethical perspective. Somewhat surprisingly, we find that the elderly, known to be at relatively high risk of being affected by the virus, are relatively reluctant to sacrifice economic pain and educational disadvantages for the younger generation, to avoid fatalities. We also identify a so-called taboo trade-off aversion amongst a substantial share of our sample, being an aversion to accept morally problematic policies that simultaneously imply higher fatality numbers and lower taxes. We explain various ways in which our results can be of value to policy makers in the context of the COVID-19 and future pandemics.