Model for end stage liver disease score predicts mortality across a broad spectrum of liver disease

The primary cause of markedly elevated aminotransferases in hospitalized patients with cirrhosis in ischemic hepatitis

BACKGROUND

Marked elevation in aminotransferases (≥1000 IU/l) is typically associated with acute liver injury. Here, we hypothesized that the cause of elevation in aminotransferases ≥1000 in patients with cirrhosis is likely due to a limited number of disorders and may be associated with poor outcomes.

AIM

We aimed to investigate the most common etiologies of acute elevations in aminotransferases in patients with cirrhosis, and to examine their associated outcomes.

METHODS

From May 2012 to December 2022, all hospitalized patients with cirrhosis and an aspartate aminotransferase or alanine aminotransferase ≥ 1000 IU/l were identified through Medical University of South Carolina's Clinical Data Warehouse. Complete clinical data were abstracted for each patient, and in-hospital mortality was examined.

RESULTS

The cohort was made up of 152 patients, who were 57 ± 12 years old, with 51 (34%) women. Underlying liver disease included mainly hepatitis C cirrhosis, alcohol-related cirrhosis, metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis cirrhosis, autoimmune cirrhosis, primary sclerosing cholangitis cirrhosis, and cryptogenic cirrhosis. The most common cause of marked elevation in aminotransferases in cirrhotic patients was ischemic hepatitis (71%), followed by chemoembolization (7%), autoimmune hepatitis (6%), drug-induced liver injury (3%), post-transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt placement (3%), rhabdomyolysis (3%), and hepatitis C (2%). During hospitalization and over a 1-month follow-up period, the mortality rate in patients with ischemic hepatitis was 73% (79/108), while that for other causes of liver injury was 20% (9/44).

CONCLUSION

Ischemic hepatitis is the leading cause of marked elevation of aminotransferases in patients with cirrhosis, with distinctive clinical characteristics than other etiologies, and significantly poorer outcomes.

Risk factors in patients with acute fatty liver of pregnancy: the role of abortion, total bilirubin and serum creatinine

PURPOSE

Acute fatty liver of pregnancy (AFLP) is a relatively rare obstetric emergency usually accompanied by fatal complications. Numerous studies have evaluated the potential risk factors for outcomes in patients with AFLP. But rare studies evaluated the predictive ability, sensitivity and specificity of the risk factors for maternal mortality. Thus, in this multicenter research, we aimed to further prove the predictive ability of the MELD model, investigated the prognostic value of history of abortion (HOA), total bilirubin (TBiL) and serum creatinine (SCr) and explored new predictive models for predicting maternal mortality in patients with AFLP.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study of 133 hospitalised patients with AFLP in four Chinese tertiary hospitals between January 2009 and April 2014.

RESULTS

The maximal AUC amongst three independent risk factors for maternal death was TBiL with a cut-off point of > 131.9 μmol/L, showing a sensitivity of 100% and a specificity of 55.9%. The threshold of the RF model for maternal mortality was - 1.629 and the AUC was 0.876, with an 81.8% sensitivity and an 80.2% specificity. The AUC for MELD model to predict maternal death was 0.894, and the best cut-off point was 28 with a sensitivity of 81.8% and a specificity of 84.7%.

CONCLUSIONS

Both the MELD model and the RF model showed good efficacy in predicting the maternal mortality in patients with ALFP (AUC = 0.894 and 0.876, respectively).

MELD3.0 is superior to MELDNa and MELD for prediction of mortality in patients with cirrhosis: An external validation in a multi-ethnic population

Background and Aim

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) was updated to MELDNa and recently to MELD3.0 to predict survival of cirrhotic patients. We validated the prognostic performance of MELD3.0 and compared with MELDNa and MELD amongst cirrhotic inpatients.

Methods

Demographical, clinical, biochemical, and survival data of cirrhotic inpatients in Singapore General Hospital (SGH) from 01 January 2018 to 31 December 2018, were studied retrospectively. Patients were followed up from first admission in 2018 until death or until 01 April 2023. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROC) were computed for the discriminative effects of MELD3.0, MELDNa, and MELD to predict 30-, 90-, and 365-day mortalities. AUROC was compared with DeLong's test. The cutoff MELD3.0 score for patients at high risk of 30-day mortality was determined using Youden's Index. Survival curves of patients with MELD3.0 score above and below the cutoff were estimated with Kaplan-Meier method and compared with log-rank analysis.

Results

Totally 862 patients were included (median age 71.0 years [interquartile range, IQR: 64.0-79.0], 65.4% males, 75.8% Chinese). Proportion of patients with Child-Turcotte-Pugh classes A/B/C were 55.5%/35.5%/9.0%. Median MELD3.0/MELDNa/MELD scores were 12.2 (IQR: 8.7-18.3)/11.0 (IQR: 8.0-17.5)/10.3 (IQR: 7.8-15.0). Median time of follow-up was 51.9 months (IQR: 8.5-59.6). The proportion of 30-/90-/365-day mortalities was 5.7%/13.2%/26.9%. AUROC of MELD3.0/MELDNa/MELD in predicting 30-, 90-, and 365-day mortalities, respectively, were 0.823/0.793/0.783, 0.754/0.724/0.707, 0.682/0.654/0.644 (P < 0.05). Optimal cutoff to predict 30-day mortality was MELD3.0 > 19 (sensitivity = 67.4%, specificity = 82.4%). Patients with MELD3.0 > 19, compared with patients with MELD3.0 ≤ 19, had shorter median time to death (98.0 days [IQR: 28.8-398.0] vs 390.0 days [IQR: 134.3-927.5]), and higher proportion of 30-day mortality (68.8% vs 43.0%) (P < 0.001).

Conclusion

MELD3.0 performs better than MELDNa and MELD in predicting mortality in cirrhotic inpatients. MELD3.0 > 19 predicts higher 30-day mortality.

Use of machine learning models for the prognostication of liver transplantation: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Liver transplantation (LT) is a life-saving intervention for patients with end-stage liver disease. However, the equitable allocation of scarce donor organs remains a formidable challenge. Prognostic tools are pivotal in identifying the most suitable transplant candidates. Traditionally, scoring systems like the model for end-stage liver disease have been instrumental in this process. Nevertheless, the landscape of prognostication is undergoing a transformation with the integration of machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence models.

AIM

To assess the utility of ML models in prognostication for LT, comparing their per formance and reliability to established traditional scoring systems.

METHODS

Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis guidelines, we conducted a thorough and standardized literature search using the PubMed/MEDLINE database. Our search imposed no restrictions on publication year, age, or gender. Exclusion criteria encompassed non-English stu dies, review articles, case reports, conference papers, studies with missing data, or those exhibiting evident methodological flaws.

RESULTS

Our search yielded a total of 64 articles, with 23 meeting the inclusion criteria. Among the selected studies, 60.8% originated from the United States and China combined. Only one pediatric study met the criteria. Notably, 91% of the studies were published within the past five years. ML models consistently demonstrated satisfactory to excellent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values (ranging from 0.6 to 1) across all studies, surpassing the performance of traditional scoring systems. Random forest exhibited superior predictive capa bilities for 90-d mortality following LT, sepsis, and acute kidney injury (AKI). In contrast, gradient boosting excelled in predicting the risk of graft-versus-host disease, pneumonia, and AKI.

CONCLUSION

This study underscores the potential of ML models in guiding decisions related to allograft allocation and LT, marking a significant evolution in the field of prognostication.

Prognostic Factors in Alcohol-associated Liver Disease Patients Presenting With First Evidence of Ascites

GOALS

To identify factors associated with transplantation and death in alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) patients presenting with first evidence of ascites.

BACKGROUND

Ascites development is a poor prognostic sign for patients with cirrhosis. Among ALD patients, the baseline factors at time of ascites development that are associated with eventual transplantation or death are currently unknown.

STUDY

Adult patients with ascites in the "Evaluating Alcohol Use in Alcohol-related Liver Disease Prospective Cohort Study" (NCT03267069 clinicaltrials.gov) were identified from 2016 to 2020. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory factors at initial ascites presentation were identified as potential predictors of transplant and death as competing risks.

RESULTS

A total of 96 patients were identified. Median (interquartile range) follow-up time was 2.00 years (0.87 to 3.85). By last follow-up, 34/96 patients had been transplanted (35.4%) and 11/96 had died (11.4%). Prognostic factors for transplant included age per decade [hazard ratio (HR): 0.52 (95% CI, 0.33 to 0.83)], employed status [HR: 0.35 (95% CI, 0.14 to 0.90)], and sodium [HR: 0.94 (95% CI, 0.90 to 0.99)], whereas prognostic factors for death were body mass index [HR: 1.11 (95% CI, 1.00 to 1.22)], Charlson index [HR: 2.14 [95% CI, 1.13 to 4.08]), Maddrey Discriminant Function >32 (HR: 5.88 (95% CI, 1.18, 29.39)], aspartate aminotransferase [HR: 0.99 (95% CI, 0.98 to 0.997)], and a prior 12-month abstinence period [HR: 5.53 (95% CI, 1.10 to 27.83)], adjusted for age, sex, and ALD subcategory.

CONCLUSIONS

Several factors at initial ascites presentation are associated with increased risk of transplantation or death and validation in larger cohorts will allow for improved risk stratification for ALD patients.

The Contemporary Role of Speckle Tracking Echocardiography in Cirrhotic Cardiomyopathy

Cirrhotic cardiomyopathy (CCM) is characterized by elevated cardiac output at rest, an inability to further increase contractility under stress, and diastolic dysfunction. The diagnosis of CCM is crucial as it can lead to complications during liver transplantation. However, its recognition poses challenges with conventional echocardiography techniques. Speckle tracking echocardiography (STE), particularly global longitudinal strain (GLS), is a novel index that enhances the diagnostic efficacy of echocardiography for both ischemic and non-ischemic cardiomyopathies. GLS proves more sensitive in identifying early systolic dysfunction and is also influenced by advanced diastolic dysfunction. Consequently, there is an expanding scope for GLS utilization in cirrhotic cases, with newly updated diagnostic criteria for CCM incorporating GLS. Specifically, systolic dysfunction is now defined as either a left ventricular ejection fraction below 50% or an absolute GLS below 18%. However, conflicting data on GLS alterations in liver cirrhosis patients persist, as many individuals with advanced disease and a poor prognosis exhibit a hyperdynamic state with preserved or increased GLS. Consequently, the presence of CCM, according to the updated criteria, does not exhibit a significant association-in the majority of studies-with the severity of liver disease and prognosis. Furthermore, information on other indices measured with STE, such as left atrial and right ventricular strain, is promising but currently limited. This review aims to offer a critical assessment of the existing evidence concerning the application of STE in patients with liver cirrhosis.

Prognostic models in alcohol-related liver disease and alcohol-related hepatitis

Alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) and alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) are dynamic disorders whose prognosis can be challenging to determine. A number of prognostic models have been developed to determine likelihood of death, when to refer for liver transplant (LT) and the role for glucocorticoids. Often these models were created with a specific application in mind but were found to have additional applications with further study. Those prognostic models that have stood the test of time are easy to use, have clear interpretations and employ objective parameters. These parameters most often include total bilirubin, INR and creatinine among other data points. Ideally, these models could be utilized at all phases of disease but in most, it is important for clinicians to consider drinking history and how it might alter the determined scores. Herein we provide a brief review of prognostic models in ALD and AH and provide practical tips and considerations to successfully make use of these tools in a clinical setting.

Efficacy and Safety of Sofosbuvir/Velpatasvir Plus Ribavirin in Patients with Hepatitis C Virus-Related Decompensated Cirrhosis

A fixed-dose combination of sofosbuvir/velpatasvir (SOF/VEL) plus weight-based ribavirin (RBV) for 12 weeks is recommended for the treatment of patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV)-associated decompensated cirrhosis. However, large global studies, while confirming the effectiveness of SOF/VEL in a broad range of patients, often exclude these patients. This Phase 2, single-arm, open-label study in adult patients with HCV-associated decompensated cirrhosis in France and the USA aimed to provide further data on the safety and efficacy of SOF/VEL plus RBV for 12 weeks in this population. Patients were treated with a fixed-dose combination of SOF 400 mg/VEL 100 mg plus weight-based RBV once daily for 12 weeks. The inclusion criteria were chronic HCV infection (≥6 months), quantifiable HCV RNA at screening, Child-Turcotte-Pugh class B or C cirrhosis, and liver imaging within 6 months of Day 1 to exclude hepatocellular carcinoma. Among 32 patients who initiated treatment, 78.1% achieved sustained virologic response 12 weeks after the end of treatment (SVR12). Failure to achieve SVR12 was due to non-virologic reasons (investigator discretion, n = 1; death, n = 6). All 25 patients in the per-protocol population achieved SVR12 and all but one achieved sustained virologic response 24 weeks after the end of treatment. Adverse events (AEs) were as expected for a patient population with advanced liver disease. All Grade 3-4 and serious AEs and deaths were deemed unrelated to treatment. In patients with HCV-associated decompensated cirrhosis, SOF/VEL plus RBV achieved high SVR12 rates and was generally well tolerated.

A Validated Composite Score Demonstrates Potential Superiority to MELD-Based Systems in Predicting Short-Term Survival in Patients with Liver Cirrhosis and Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis-A Preliminary Study

BACKGROUND

Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is a severe complication in cirrhosis patients with ascites, leading to high mortality rates if not promptly treated. However, specific prediction models for SBP are lacking.

AIMS

This study aimed to compare commonly used cirrhotic prediction models (CTP score, MELD, MELD-Na, iMELD, and MELD 3.0) for short-term mortality prediction and develop a novel model to improve mortality prediction.

METHODS

Patients with the first episode of SBP were included. Prognostic values for mortality were assessed using AUROC analysis. A novel prediction model was developed and validated.

RESULTS

In total, 327 SBP patients were analyzed, with HBV infection as the main etiologies. MELD 3.0 demonstrated the highest AUROC among the traditional models. The novel model, incorporating HRS, exhibited superior predictive accuracy for in-hospital in all patients and 3-month mortality in HBV-cirrhosis, with AUROC values of 0.827 and 0.813 respectively, surpassing 0.8.

CONCLUSIONS

MELD 3.0 score outperformed the CTP score and showed a non-significant improvement compared to other MELD-based scores, while the novel SBP model demonstrated impressive accuracy. Internal validation and an HBV-related cirrhosis subgroup sensitivity analysis supported these findings, highlighting the need for a specific prognostic model for SBP and the importance of preventing HRS development to improve SBP prognosis.

Care Throughout the Journey-The Interaction Between Primary Care and Palliative Care

Palliative care is no longer synonymous with end-of-life care, and because supply has been well outstripped by demand, much of the practice of palliative care early in a patient's illness journey will take place in the primary care clinic-referred to as primary palliative care. Referral to specialty palliative care for complex symptom management or clarification on decision-making is appropriate, and can facilitate hospice referral, if indicated and in line with patient/family goals.

Effect of COVID-19 Pandemic on Patients Who Have Undergone Liver Transplantation: Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

In liver transplant (LT) recipients, immunosuppressive therapy may potentially increase the risk of severe COVID-19 and may increase the mortality in patients. However, studies have shown conflicting results, with various studies reporting poor outcomes while the others show no difference between the LT recipients and healthy population. The aim of this study is to determine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on survival of LT recipients.

METHODS

This is a retrospective cohort study analyzing the data from 387 LT recipients diagnosed with COVID-19. LT recipients were divided into two groups: survival (n = 359) and non-survival (n = 28) groups. A logistic regression model was used to determine the independent risk factors for mortality. Machine learning models were used to analyze the contribution of independent variables to the mortality in LT recipients.

RESULTS

The COVID-19-related mortality rate in LT recipients was 7.2%. Multivariate analysis showed that everolimus use (p = 0.012; OR = 6.2), need for intubation (p = 0.001; OR = 38.4) and discontinuation of immunosuppressive therapy (p = 0.047; OR = 7.3) were independent risk factors for mortality. Furthermore, COVID-19 vaccination reduced the risk of mortality by 100 fold and was the single independent factor determining the survival of the LT recipients.

CONCLUSION

The effect of COVID-19 infection on LT recipients is slightly different from the effect of the disease on the general population. The COVID-19-related mortality is lower than the general population and vaccination for COVID-19 significantly reduces the risk of mortality.

Pharmacokinetics of AXA1665, a Novel Composition of Amino Acids, in Comparison With Protein Supplement: A Single-Dose, Open-Label, Randomized Study in Healthy Subjects

We evaluated the safety and tolerability of AXA1665, a novel investigational fixed-ratio amino acid (AA) composition, the pharmacokinetics (PK) of the constituent AAs within AXA1665, and their relative bioavailability versus standard protein supplement. This study was conducted in 2 phases; in the initial phase, healthy subjects (N = 16) were randomly assigned to 4 treatment sequences (AXA1665 4.9, 9.8, and 19.6 g or 35 g protein supplement) in an open-label, single-dose, 4-way crossover study, while in the extension phase, they received single AXA1665 doses of 29.4 and 39.2 g in a sequential crossover manner. The net area under the plasma concentration-time curve (AUC) and observed time to reach maximum plasma concentration were estimated. A dose-dependent increase in plasma AUC from time 0 to the last measurable concentration (AUClast ) and maximum plasma concentration (Cmax ) was observed for all AXA1665-dosed AAs (4.9-39.2 g) except aspartic acid. AXA1665 19.6 g resulted in 1.5- to 9.5-fold higher systemic exposure to all AXA1665-dosed AAs except for aspartic acid and lysine and lower exposure to all nondosed AAs except for glutamine and alanine versus protein supplement. AXA1665 doses, up to 39.2 g, can deliver AXA1665-dosed AAs in the systemic circulation in the linear AUC range.

The Albumin-Bilirubin Score as a Predictor of Liver-Related Mortality in Primary Biliary Cholangitis with Compensated Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Although several prognostic scores have been reported to correlate with the prognosis of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) patients, there are limited tools to predict the prognosis of PBC with compensated cirrhosis. This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic performance of the albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score in PBC patients with compensated cirrhosis.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective longitudinal study of 219 patients with compensated PBC cirrhosis to evaluate the prognostic performance of the ALBI using Cox regression model, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and Kaplan-Meier method.

RESULTS

During follow-up, a total of 19 subjects (8.7%) met the primary endpoint of liver-related death or liver transplantation (LT). Patients who died/underwent LT have higher ALBI score (-1.06 vs. -2.06, p < 0.001) at baseline than those who survived. ALBI score (hazard ratio: 15.011, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.045-44.665, p < 0.001) was associated with an increase in liver-related mortality or LT. ALBI score had the best discriminative capacity to predict the 5-year liver-related mortality (area under the ROC curve: 0.871, 95% CI [0.820, 0.913]) compared with other prognostic scores. The ROC curve showed that the best cut-off value of ALBI score was -1.47, with 90.0% sensitivity and 76.6% specificity. Also, the probability of transplant-free survival decreased with increasing ALBI grade (log-rank p = 0.003). The 5-year transplant-free survival rates of patients in grade 1, grade 2, and grade 3 were 100.0%, 96.4%, and 89.4%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

ALBI score is a simple and effective predictive factor estimating the clinical outcome of patients with compensated PBC cirrhosis and provides better prognostic performance compared with other prognostic scores.

A case report of a pregnant woman with compensated liver cirrhosis and pancytopenia

Key Clinical Message

Liver cirrhosis may worsen during pregnancy resulting in adverse maternal and fetal outcomes. Proper antenatal evaluation, staging, and variceal screening will facilitate the management. Elective endoscopic variceal ligation (EVL) during the second trimester can prevent unexpected variceal bleeding. A multidisciplinary approach including the planning of delivery and shared decision-making is recommended for favorable pregnancy outcomes.

Abstract

Pregnancy in women with liver cirrhosis is relatively uncommon. During pregnancy, liver cirrhosis and portal hypertension may worsen significantly, placing both the mother and fetus at an increased risk of serious morbidity and life-threatening events. With the use of a wide variety of diagnostic tools and considerably improved treatment strategies, many women with liver disease in pregnancies are being diagnosed with significantly improved obstetric outcomes. We present a case of a 33-year-old lady with a previous medical history of cryptogenic chronic liver disease and schistosomiasis associated with periportal fibrosis, portal hypertension, splenomegaly, and pancytopenia. The mother presented to our tertiary care center at 18 weeks of gestation. She had EVL twice during the second trimester. With multidisciplinary care and follow-up, she labored spontaneously and was discharged home on third postnatal day.

Neutrophil-to-high-density-lipoprotein-cholesterol ratio and mortality among patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

Background

Inflammatory responses and lipid metabolism disorders contribute to the development and prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aimed to investigate the prognostic value of lipid-related inflammatory parameters in patients with HCC.

Methods

From January 2010 to June 2017, we enrolled 1,639 patients with HCC at Beijing Ditan Hospital. Multivariate Cox regression analysis and area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) analysis were used to evaluate and compare the predictability and reliability of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), neutrophil-to-HDL-C ratio (NHR), monocyte-to-HDL-C ratio (MHR), and lymphocyte-to-HDL-C ratio (LHR) values. A restricted cubic spline was used to explore the association between the NHR and 3-year mortality in patients with HCC. Differences in survival rates were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared using the log-rank test. The results were validated in an internal cohort between July 2017 and October 2019 (n = 373).

Results

After adjusting for confounding variables, NHR was independently associated with 3-year mortality, both as a continuous and categorical variable (both p < 0.05). The correlation between the mortality and the MHR and LHR was not statistically significant. The NHR showed a suitable prognostic value (AUC at 3 years: 0.740), similar to that of the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) (AUC at 3 years: 0.761). In the validation cohort, the AUC of the NHR was 0.734 at 3 years. The optimal cut-off values of NHR and MELD were 3.5 and 9, respectively. The 3-year survival rates in the low- (NHR < 3.5 and MELD <9) and high-risk (NHR ≥ 3.5 and MELD ≥9) groups were 81.8 and 19.4%, respectively, in the training cohort, and 84.6 and 27.5%, respectively, in the validation cohort.

Conclusion

Baseline NHR is a promising prognostic parameter for mortality in patients with HCC and patients with NHR ≥ 3.5 and MELD ≥9 have a high mortality rate.

Dual Graft Living Donor Liver Transplantation for High Acuity Patients: A Single-Center Experience

Background

The outcomes of dual graft living donor liver transplantation (DGLDLT) in high acuity patients remain underreported. The objective of this study was to report long-term outcomes from a single center in this select group of patients.

Methods

This was a retrospective review of patients who underwent DGLDLT between 2012 and 2017 (n = 10). High acuity patients were defined as patients with model for end stage liver disease (MELD) ≥30 or Child Pugh score ≥11. We looked at 90-day morbidity and mortality and 5-year overall survival (OS).

Results

The median MELD score and Child Pugh score were 30 (26.7-35) and 11 (11-11.2). The median recipient weight was 105 (95.2-113.7) and ranged from 82 to 132 kg. Out of 10 patients, 4 (40%) required perioperative renal replacement therapy, and 8 (80%) required hospital admission for optimization. The estimated graft to recipient weight ratio (GRWR) with right lobe graft alone was <0.8 in all patients, between 0.75 and 0.65 in 5 (50%) patients, and <0.65 in 5 (50%) patients. The 90-day mortality was 3/10 (30%), and there were 3/10 (30%) deaths during long-term follow-up. Among 155 high acuity patients, the 1-year OS with standard LDLT, standard LDLT with GRWR <0.8, and DGLDLT was 82%, 76%, and 58%, respectively (P = 0.123). With a median follow-up of 40.6 (1.9-74.4) months, the 5-year OS for DGLDLT was 50%.

Conclusion

The use of DGLDLT in high acuity patients should be prudent and low GRWR grafts should be considered a viable alternative in selected patients.

Using machine learning methods to predict 28-day mortality in patients with hepatic encephalopathy

BACKGROUND

Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is associated with marked increases in morbidity and mortality for cirrhosis patients. This study aimed to develop and validate machine learning (ML) models to predict 28-day mortality for patients with HE.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC)-IV database. Patients from MIMIC-IV were randomized into training and validation cohorts in a ratio of 7:3. Training cohort was used for establishing the model while validation cohort was used for validation. The outcome was defined as 28-day mortality. Predictors were identified by recursive feature elimination (RFE) within 24 h of intensive care unit (ICU) admission. The area under the curve (AUC) and calibration curve were used to determine the predictive performance of different ML models.

RESULTS

In the MIMIC-IV database, 601 patients were eventually diagnosed with HE. Of these, 112 (18.64%) experienced death within 28 days. Acute physiology score III (APSIII), sepsis related organ failure assessment (SOFA), international normalized ratio (INR), total bilirubin (TBIL), albumin, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), acute kidney injury (AKI) and mechanical ventilation were identified as independent risk factors. Validation set indicated that the artificial neural network (NNET) model had the highest AUC of 0.837 (95% CI:0.774-0.901). Furthermore, in the calibration curve, the NNET model was also well-calibrated (P = 0.323), which means that it can better predict the 28-day mortality in HE patients. Additionally, the performance of the NNET is superior to existing scores, including Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium (MELD-Na).

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, the NNET model demonstrated better discrimination in predicting 28-day mortality as compared to other models. This developed model could potentially improve the early detection of HE with high mortality, subsequently improving clinical outcomes in these patients with HE, but further external prospective validation is still required.

Consider hospice in end-stage liver disease prognostic scale to open discussions regarding six-month mortality

Background and Aim

Hospice is underutilized in the management of patients with end-stage liver disease and may improve the patient experience at the end of life. This study aims to create a novel prognostic scale to accurately predict 6-month mortality to more comprehensively facilitate hospice referral.

Methods

Sociodemographic, clinical, and laboratory variables associated with mortality from the United Network for Organ Sharing database were tested in univariate analysis followed by multivariate analyses with four predictor groups: Demographics, Diagnoses, Complexities, and Laboratory studies to develop the hospice in end-stage liver disease prognostic scale (HELP) scale (70% sample, N = 13 516) followed with replication in a 30% (N = 5792) internal validation sample.

Results

Only the predictor groups of Complexities and Laboratory studies met the c-statistic threshold of 0.70 for inclusion in the multivariate analyses. Backward elimination in the final logistic regression and validated weighted transformation procedure resulted in: HELP scale = (functional status × 11) + (ascites × 3) + (SBP × 3) + (HE × 4) + (dialysis × 5) + (TIPS × -3) + (albumin × -3) + (MELD-Na ≥ 21 × 20). HELP scale had a strong predictive value for six-month mortality with Area under the Receiver Operating Curve (AUROC) 0.816 and replicated in the validation sample.

Conclusion

HELP scale is a novel prognostic score utilizing the strength of model of end-stage liver disease-sodium (MELD-Na), along with clinical factors, for a more nuanced assessment of six-month mortality. This scale can provide an individualized approach in opening discussions of hospice referral and may be better accepted by patients and providers given its contextualization of important clinical factors.

Diagnosis and management of hepatic encephalopathy: The French recommendations

Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is a frequent and severe complication of liver disease with poor patient outcomes. However, it is a poorly understood complication, with no consensus for diagnosis. Therefore, HE is often underdiagnosed. Differential diagnosis may be cumbersome because of non-specific symptoms, such as confusion, cognitive disorders, the aetiological factors of cirrhosis and comorbidities, which are often observed in cirrhotic patients. Therefore, an overt or covert form of HE should be systematically investigated. Advice is provided to drive patient work-up. Effective treatments are available to prevent or treat HE bouts, but the issue of single or combination therapy has not been resolved. Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) placement largely improved the prognosis of cirrhotic patients, but HE occurrence of HE is often a fear, even when post-TIPS HE can be avoided by a careful selection of patients and preventive treatment. HE is an indication of liver transplantation. However, its reversibility post-transplantation and the consequences of transplantation in patients with other causes of neurological disorders remain controversial, which supports the performance of an extensive work-up in expert centres for this subset of patients. The present guidelines assist clinicians in the diagnosis of the overt or covert form of HE to implement curative and preventive treatments and clarify which patients require referral to expert centres for consideration for liver transplantation. These guidelines are very clinically oriented and address different frequent clinical issues to help physicians make bedside decisions.

Bacterascites confers poor patient prognosis beyond MELD prediction

Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is a well-recognized clinical entity with a poor prognosis. In comparison, the prevalence, microbiological flora, and prognostic significance of bacterascites (BA) (the presence of organism on culture but ascitic PMN <250 cells/mm³) is largely unknown. We, therefore, assessed the prognosis and predictors of outcome in patients with BA in comparison with those with SBP. Ascitic fluid cultures from consecutive patients with cirrhosis from 2008 to 2018 were reviewed retrospectively, and patients with SBP and BA were identified. Baseline demographic, laboratory, and microbiological data were collated and analyzed as prognostic indicators, and clinical outcomes were recorded. Patients were censored at the time of LT, death, or last follow-up. For this study 176 and 213 cases of SBP and BA, respectively, were identified and included. Patients with SBP had significantly higher Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) ( p =<0.01), peripheral blood WCC ( p < 0.01), and higher rates of Enterobacteriaceae ( p < 0.01) and multi-drug resistant pathogens ( p < 0.01). Survival at 1 and 3 months was lower in patients with SBP ( p < 0.01) when compared with BA but at 6 months and beyond, no significant difference remained. After the exclusion of deaths within 30 days of presentation, survival between SBP and BA was equivocal at all time points. Mortality was substantially higher across all MELD groupings for both SBP and BA when compared with the predicted mortality calculated by the MELD score alone. BA has a negative impact on patient survival above that predicted by the MELD score. It has similar impact to SBP on patient survival beyond 1 month suggesting it should be seen as a poor prognostic marker and prompt consideration of LT where appropriate. Further studies evaluating the role of secondary prophylaxis in this group are required.

Understanding Prognosis: Discrepancy in Prognosis Estimates Between Patients With Cirrhosis and their Hepatologists

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Patients require a clear understanding of their prognosis to make informed decisions about their care. The aim of this study was to compare the perceptions of prognosis and transplant candidacy between patients with cirrhosis and their hepatologists.

METHODS

Patients with cirrhosis and their hepatologists were prospectively recruited at an urban liver transplant center. Patients and hepatologists were asked about transplant candidacy and about how many years patients would live with and without a liver transplant. Agreement between patients and hepatologists was assessed with the weighted kappa statistic. Associations between patient/hepatologists' prognostic estimates and those predicted by patients' Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium (MELD-Na) score were estimated using the Pearson correlation coefficient.

RESULTS

Seventy patients and 6 hepatologists were enrolled in the study. Patients were predominantly male (61.4%) and white (68.6%), with a mean MELD-Na score of 19 ± 9. There was no-slight agreement between patients and hepatologists regarding survival without and with a liver transplant (κ = 0.1 and 0.2, respectively), with patients more optimistic than their hepatologists. There was greater agreement between patients and hepatologists about transplant candidacy (κ = 0.6). There was a negligible association between MELD-Na and patient estimates (r = -0.24, P = .05) but a moderate association between MELD-Na and hepatologist estimates (r = -0.51, P < .001), with higher MELD-Na scores associated with lower predicted survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with cirrhosis are more optimistic and less accurate in their predictions of survival compared with hepatologists, although they are more realistic about their transplant candidacy. Aligning patient and provider expectations may increase the likelihood that patients receive value-concordant care.

A novel nomogram to predict 90-day mortality in patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure: a single-center retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a critical illness with high mortality. Herein, we developed and validated a new and simple prognostic nomogram to predict 90-day mortality in hepatitis B virus-related ACLF (HBV-ACLF) patients.

METHODS

This single-center retrospective study collected data from 181 HBV-ACLF patients treated between June 2018 and March 2020. The correlation between clinical data and 90-day mortality in patients with HBV-ACLF was assessed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses.

RESULTS

Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age (p = 0.011), hepatic encephalopathy (p = 0.001), total bilirubin (p = 0.007), international normalized ratio (p = 0.006), and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (p = 0.011) were independent predictors of 90-day mortality in HBV-ACLF patients. A nomogram was created to predict 90-day mortality using these risk factors. The C-index for the prognostic nomogram was calculated as 0.866, and confirmed to be 0.854 via bootstrapping verification. The area under the curve was 0.870 in the external validation cohort. The predictive value of the nomogram was similar to that of the Chinese Group on the Study of Severe Hepatitis B score, and exceeded the performance of other prognostic scores.

CONCLUSION

The prognostic nomogram constructed using the factors identified in multivariate regression analysis might serve as a beneficial tool to predict 90-day mortality in HBV-ACLF patients.

The Conundrum of Patients With Compensated Cirrhosis Requiring Kidney Transplantation; Kidney Alone or Simultaneous Liver Kidney Transplantation

BACKGROUND

Patients with compensated cirrhosis and chronic kidney disease are increasing along with demand for simultaneous liver kidney transplant (SLKT) and shortages of organs for transplantation. Although these well-compensated patients may not need a liver organ, the alternative of kidney transplant alone (KTA) poses the risk of liver decompensation. Therefore, we aim to characterize outcomes among patients with compensated cirrhosis and chronic kidney disease listed for SLKT or receiving KTA to inform clinical decisions.

METHODS

The 2-part retrospective study included a national cohort of patients listed for SLKT in United Network for Organ Sharing from January 2003 to June 2019 with Child A cirrhosis, with model for end-stage liver disease <25, and receiving dialysis; and a cohort of patients who underwent KTA from 2004 to 2019 with Child A cirrhosis identified through a 4-center chart review. Waitlist outcomes (SLKT, death, and clinical improvement) and post-KTA liver decompensation and survival were evaluated in the cohorts, respectively.

RESULTS

In the national SLKT cohort (N = 705, median age 56 y, 68.8% male), 5-y cumulative incidence of SLKT was 43.1%, death 32.1%, and clinical improvement 9.1%. Among SLKT recipients, 36.3% remained Child A without ascites or encephalopathy at transplant. In the local KTA cohort (N = 34, median age 54 y, 79.4% male), none had ascites or hepatic encephalopathy before KTA, but 15 had clinical portal hypertension. Five-y post-KTA incidence of liver decompensation was 36.8%, and survival was 89.2%.

CONCLUSIONS

SLKT may not be necessary for some patients with compensated cirrhosis needing kidney transplant. KTA is safe for selected patients with intact liver biochemical function, even with portal hypertension but without hepatic encephalopathy or ascites.

Prognostic Value of Different Versions of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Score in Patients Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, which can reflect liver and renal function, is associated with poor prognosis. However, the prognostic performance of the modified MELD score in patients undergoing elective percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) has not been fully evaluated and compared. This study retrospectively enrolled 5324 patients. During a median follow-up of 2.85 years, 412 patients died. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves at 3 years indicated that the MELD including albumin (MELD-Albumin) score had the highest prognostic performance (AUC = .721) than the MELD score (AUC = .630), the MELD excluding the international normalized ratio (MELD-XI) score (AUC = .606), and the MELD including sodium (MELD-Na) score (AUC = .656) (all P < .001). The MELD-Albumin score, the MELD score, and the MELD-Na score were independent predictors of long-term mortality; however, the MELD-XI score was not when treated as a categorical variable (P = .254). Adding the MELD-Albumin score to the model of clinical risk factors could improve the prognostic performance. For the subgroup analysis, the association between the MELD-Albumin score and long-term mortality was more pronounced in patients ≤75 years (interaction P value = .005). The MELD-Albumin score showed the strongest prognostic performance than the other versions of the MELD score in patients undergoing elective PCI.

HFA-PEFF score as an independent predictor of 2-year mortality in liver cirrhosis patients

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Cardiovascular complications of liver cirrhosis include high cardiac output heart failure with reduced afterload and diastolic dysfunction. Heart Failure Association Pre-test assessment, Echocardiography and natriuretic peptide, Functional testing, Final etiology (HFA-PEFF) (values 0-6) is a diagnostic tool for heart failure. It is a cluster of echocardiographic and biochemical parameters. The purpose of this prospective study was to assess if HFA-PEFF score is associated with the severity of liver disease and to determine its prognostic significance in patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

Patients with cirrhosis without an acute event were enrolled. A comprehensive echocardiography study was conducted, brain natriuretic peptide and N-terminal-pro-B-type Natriuretic Peptide levels were measured and HFA-PEFF score was calculated. All patients were prospectively followed up after enrollment. The study end-point was defined as the composite of all-cause death.

RESULTS

Seventy-two consecutive patients [median age 59 years (inter-quartile range: 52-65), 72.2% males, Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) 12.9 (8.5-16.3)] were included. The 52.8% had a high HFA-PEFF score (5 or 6) and the 47.2% intermediate/low score (0-4). HFA-PEFF score was correlated with MELD score (rho = 0.566, P  < 0.001), but not with age, SBP and heart rate. The median follow-up was 24.2 (9.5-38.8) months. The 1- and 2-year cumulative mortality was higher in patients with high HFA-PEFF compared to those with intermediate/low (log-rank P  < 0.001 for both). The predicted 2-year probability of survival in high vs intermediate/low HFA-PEFF was found to be a prognostic factor of death even when adjusted for age, gender and MELD score [hazard ratio = 3.539 (1.134-11.046), P  = 0.029].

CONCLUSION

HFA-PEFF score is high among patients with liver cirrhosis, especially those with advanced liver disease. HFA-PEFF score is associated with survival even when adjusting for cirrhosis severity.

The Risk of Endoscopy-Related Bleeding in Patients with Liver Cirrhosis: A Retrospective Study

Background and Objectives: The risk of bleeding after endoscopic procedures in patients with liver cirrhosis remains unclear because of secondary blood coagulation disorders. In this study, we used various indices to evaluate the risk of bleeding in patients with cirrhosis. Materials and Methods: Patients with liver cirrhosis aged ≥18 years who underwent endoscopic interventions at Kyung Hee University Hospital at Gangdong between February 2007 and September 2021 were included. Clinical information, including demographic data, laboratory results, the presence of cirrhosis complications, and the degree of fibrosis, was checked and evaluated based on medical records. Results: A total of 101 patients with cirrhosis were analyzed. A total of 16 of the 101 patients (15.8%) experienced bleeding after the endoscopic procedure. One patient (0.99%) presented with spurting, while the others presented with mild oozing. All patients underwent hemostatic procedures using hemoclips. The presence of a varix significantly increased post-endoscopic bleeding (p = 0.03). Patients with FIB > 3.25 showed a statistically significant bleeding tendency (p = 0.00). Conclusions: There was no significant difference in bleeding risk according to the platelet count, prothrombin time, Child−Pugh score, and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD). Considering the degree of liver fibrosis and the invasiveness of the planned procedure, most endoscopic procedures can be performed safely but should be further evaluated in a cohort with a larger sample size.

Acute kidney injury defined by cystatin C may be superior for predicting the outcomes of liver cirrhosis with acute gastrointestinal bleeding

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is conventionally evaluated by a dynamic change of serum creatinine (Scr). Cystatin C (CysC) seems to be a more accurate biomarker for assessing kidney function. This retrospective multicenter study aims to evaluate whether AKI re-defined by CysC can predict the in-hospital outcomes of patients with liver cirrhosis and acute gastrointestinal bleeding.

METHODS

Overall, 677 cirrhotic patients with acute gastrointestinal bleeding, in whom both Scr and CysC levels were detected at admissions, were screened. eGFR_Scr, eGFR_CysC, and eGFR_Scr-CysC were calculated. MELD-Na score and AKI were re-evaluated by CysC instead of Scr. Odds ratios (ORs) were calculated in the logistic regression analyses. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were performed.

RESULTS

Univariate logistic regression analyses demonstrated that baseline Scr and CysC levels, eGFR_Scr, eGFR_CysC, eGFR_Scr-CysC, original MELD-Na score defined by Scr, MELD-Na score re-defined by CysC, and AKI re-defined by CysC, but not conventional AKI defined by Scr, were significantly associated with in-hospital death. ROC analyses showed that baseline CysC level, eGFR_Scr, eGFR_CysC, eGFR_Scr-CysC, original MELD-Na score defined by Scr, and MELD-Na score re-defined by CysC, but not baseline Scr level, could significantly predict the risk of in-hospital death.

CONCLUSIONS

AKI re-defined by CysC may be superior for predicting the in-hospital mortality of cirrhotic patients with acute gastrointestinal bleeding.

Measurement of skeletal muscle volume is useful for predicting prognosis in patients with liver cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) and the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score were previously reported as prognostic factors for outcome in patients with liver cirrhosis (LC), and recently, the presence of sarcopenia was reported to be an indicator of worse prognosis in these patients.

AIM

This retrospective study aimed to clarify the importance of sarcopenia as a prognostic factor in patients with LC.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

The MELD-Na score, HVPG, and skeletal muscle index (SMI) were measured in 202 patients between January 2013 and August 2020. We performed linear regression analysis between HVPG and SMI and calculated suitable cutoff values of HVPG for predicting presarcopenia and of HVPG, ΔSMI (i.e. the decrease in SMI per year, for predicting survival). Overall survival rates with the HVPG and ΔSMI cutoff values were compared by Kaplan-Meier estimates and log-rank tests. Prognostic factors for survival were analyzed by Cox regression univariate and multivariate analyses.

RESULTS

In total, 71% (143/202) of patients presented with presarcopenia. Linear regression showed a significantly negative correlation between HVPG and SMI. Survival was significantly worse in the group with presarcopenia than in the group without. Survival was worse also in the group with an HVPG value ≥ 15 and ΔSMI ≥ -2.4. Cox regression multivariate analyses showed that MELD-Na score, HVPG, HVPG ≥ 15, ΔSMI, and ΔSMI ≥ -2.4 were independent prognostic factors.

CONCLUSION

Skeletal muscle volume, especially ΔSMI, has a prognostic value equivalent to that of the MELD-Na score and HVPG.

MELD-Na Accurately Predicts 6-Month Mortality in Patients With Decompensated Cirrhosis: Potential Trigger for Hospice Referral

GOAL

The goal of this study was to determine the accuracy of Model of End-stage Liver Disease-Sodium (MELD-Na) in predicting 6-month mortality for patients listed for liver transplantation on the United Network of Organ Sharing (UNOS) waitlist.

BACKGROUND

End-stage liver disease patients underutilize hospice services despite significant morbidity and mortality associated with advanced liver disease. A well-known barrier to hospice referral is clinician uncertainty in identifying patients with an expected survival of <6 months, a requirement for a referral.

METHODS

Retrospective cross-sectional analysis was performed from UNOS data spanning February 27, 2002, to September 30, 2019. Inclusion criteria of patients aged 18 years and above, diagnosis of cirrhosis, liver transplant eligible, and listed in the UNOS database. Exclusion criteria included fulminant hepatic failure, prior history of liver transplantation, diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma, receipt of liver transplant in <180 days, or removal from waiting list <180 days for a reason other than death.

MEASUREMENT

Mortality by 180 days.

RESULTS

Of the 93,157 patients that met inclusion criteria, MELD-Na was calculated for all patients with sodium, total bilirubin, international normalized ratio, and creatinine available (N=79,611). The c -statistic with 95% confidence interval for MELD-Na for the predicted 6-month mortality was 0.83 (0.827-0.835). Mean MELD-Na of 28.2 was associated with ≤50% 6-month survival.

CONCLUSION

MELD-Na is an objective, quick measure that can aid providers in identifying patients with increased 6-month mortality in time-constrained settings, and a score of 28 can trigger the discussion for hospice as a means of improving value-based health care.

Mortality Prediction Model before Surgery for Acute Mesenteric Infarction: A Population-Based Study

Surgery for acute mesenteric infarction (AMI) is associated with high mortality. This study aimed to generate a mortality prediction model to predict the 30-day mortality of surgery for AMI. We included patients ≥18 years who received bowel resection in treating AMI and randomly divided into the derivation and validation groups. After multivariable analysis, the ‘Surgery for acute mesenteric infarction mortality score’ (SAMIMS) system was generated and was including age >62-year-old (3 points), hemodialysis (2 points), congestive heart failure (1 point), peptic ulcer disease (1 point), diabetes (1 point), cerebrovascular disease (1 point), and severe liver disease (4 points). The 30-day-mortality rates in the derivation group were 4.4%, 13.4%, 24.5%, and 32.5% among very low (0 point), low (1−3 point(s)), intermediate (4−6 points), and high (7−13 points)-risk patients. Compared to the very-low-risk group, the low-risk (OR = 3.332), intermediate-risk (OR = 7.004), and high-risk groups (OR = 10.410, p < 0.001) exhibited higher odds of 30-day mortality. We identified similar results in the validation group. The areas under the ROC curve were 0.677 and 0.696 in the derivation and validation groups. Our prediction model, SAMIMS, allowed for the stratification of the patients’ 30-day-mortality risk of surgery for acute mesenteric infarction.

Thromboembolism and bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation and liver disease - A nationwide register-based cohort study: Thromboembolism and bleeding in liver disease

BACKGROUND

Balancing the risk of thromboembolism and bleeding in patients with liver disease and atrial fibrillation/flutter is particularly challenging.

PURPOSE

To examine the risks of thromboembolism and bleeding with use/non-use of oral anticoagulation (including vitamin K-antagonists and direct oral anticoagulants) in patients with liver disease and AF.

METHODS

Danish nationwide register-based cohort study of anticoagulant naive individuals with liver disease, incident atrial fibrillation/flutter, and a CHA₂DS₂-VASc-score≥1 (men) or ≥2 (women), alive 30 days after atrial fibrillation/flutter diagnosis. Thromboembolism was a composite of ischaemic stroke, transient ischaemic attack, or venous thromboembolism. Bleeding was a composite of gastrointestinal, intracerebral, or urogenital bleeding requiring hospitalisation, or epistaxis requiring emergency department visit or hospital admission. Cause-specific Cox-regression was used to estimate absolute risks and average risk ratios standardised to covariate distributions. Because of significant interactions with anticoagulants, results for thromboembolism were stratified for CHA2DS2-VASc-score, and results for bleeding were stratified for cirrhotic/non-cirrhotic liver disease.

RESULTS

Four hundred and nine of 1,238 patients with liver disease and new atrial fibrillation/flutter initiated anticoagulants. Amongst patients with a CHA2DS2-VASc-score of 1-2 (2-3 for women), five-year thromboembolism incidence rates were low and similar in the anticoagulant (6.5%) versus no anticoagulant (5.5%) groups (average risk ratio 1.19 [95%CI, 0.22-2.16]). In patients with a CHA2DS2-VASc-score>2 (>3 for women), incidence rates were 16% versus 24% (average risk ratio 0.66 [95%CI, 0.45-0.87]). Bleeding risks appeared higher amongst patients with cirrhotic versus non-cirrhotic disease but were not significantly affected by anticoagulant status.

CONCLUSION

Oral anticoagulant initiation in patients with liver disease, incident new atrial fibrillation/flutter, and a high CHA2DS2-VASc-score was associated with a reduced thromboembolism risk. Bleeding risk was not increased with anticoagulation, irrespective of the type of liver disease.

Modelling kidney outcomes based on MELD eras - impact of MELD score in renal endpoints after liver transplantation

Background

Acute kidney injury is a common complication in solid organ transplants, notably liver transplantation. The MELD is a score validated to predict mortality of cirrhotic patients, which is also used for organ allocation, however the influence of this allocation criteria on AKI incidence and mortality after liver transplantation is still uncertain.

Methods

This is a retrospective single center study of a cohort of patients submitted to liver transplant in a tertiary Brazilian hospital: Jan/2002 to Dec/2013, divided in two groups, before and after MELD implementation (pre-MELD and post MELD). We evaluate the differences in AKI based on KDIGO stages and mortality rates between the two groups.

Results

Eight hundred seventy-four patients were included, 408 in pre-MELD and 466 in the post MELD era. The proportion of patients that developed AKI was lower in the post MELD era (p 0.04), although renal replacement therapy requirement was more frequent in this group (p < 0.01). Overall mortality rate at 28, 90 and 365 days was respectively 7%, 11% and 15%. The 1-year mortality rate was lower in the post MELD era (20% vs. 11%, p < 0.01). AKI incidence was 50% lower in the post MELD era even when adjusted for clinically relevant covariates (p < 0.01).

Conclusion

Liver transplants performed in the post MELD era had a lower incidence of AKI, although there were more cases requiring dialysis. 1-year mortality was lower in the post MELD era, suggesting that patient care was improved during this period.

MELIF, a Fully Automated Liver Function Score Calculated from Gd-EOB-DTPA-Enhanced MR Images: Diagnostic Performance vs. the MELD Score

In the management of patients with chronic liver disease, the assessment of liver function is essential for treatment planning. Gd-EOB-DTPA-enhanced MRI allows for both the acquisition of anatomical information and regional liver function quantification. The objective of this study was to demonstrate and evaluate the diagnostic performance of two fully automatically generated imaging-based liver function scores that take the whole liver into account. T1 images from the native and hepatobiliary phases and the corresponding T1 maps from 195 patients were analyzed. A novel artificial-intelligence-based software prototype performed image segmentation and registration, calculated the reduction rate of the T1 relaxation time for the whole liver (rrT1_liver) and used it to calculate a personalized liver function score, then generated a unified score—the MELIF score—by combining the liver function score with a patient-specific factor that included weight, height and liver volume. Both scores correlated strongly with the MELD score, which is used as a reference for global liver function. However, MELIF showed a stronger correlation than the rrT1_liver score. This study demonstrated that the fully automated determination of total liver function, regionally resolved, using MR liver imaging is feasible, providing the opportunity to use the MELIF score as a diagnostic marker in future prospective studies.

A dynamic nomogram to predict transplant-free mortality in patients with hepatitis B-related cirrhosis and overt hepatic encephalopathy

BACKGROUND

Overt hepatic encephalopathy (OHE) is a serious complication of liver disease. We aimed to develop a dynamic nomogram for estimating the probability of 30-day transplant-free mortality in patients with OHE and hepatitis B-related cirrhosis (HBC).

METHODS

We identified 402 patients with OHE and HBC at the Beijing Ditan Hospital between January 2011 and July 2016. Independent risk factors were determined using multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. A dynamic nomogram was established to predict the probability of 30-day transplant-free mortality. The discrimination and clinical usefulness of the nomogram were estimated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) and calibration curves, and decision curve analysis. A prospective cohort of 208 patients was enrolled for validation.

RESULTS

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) were independently associated with the 30-day transplant-free mortality. The AUC values of the nomogram were 0.881 and 0.879 in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively, and the discrimination ability was superior to that of the established models. The calibration plot fitted the predicted survival and observed probabilities well. The incidence of mortality was 2.0% (3/151) in patients with MELD scores < 23 and NLR < 4, and 55.4% (41/92) in those with MELD scores ≥ 23 and NLR ≥ 4.

CONCLUSIONS

The dynamic nomogram can predict the risk of 30-day transplant-free mortality in patients with OHE and HBC. Patients with MELD scores ≥ 23 and NLR ≥ 4 have a high mortality rate and should be admitted to intensive care.

Neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio and the risk of 30-day mortality in patients with overt hepatic encephalopathy

AIM

Patients with overt hepatic encephalopathy (OHE) have an increased risk of adverse outcomes. However, the relationship between neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and the 30-day risk of death in patients with OHE has not been well evaluated.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 1301 patients with OHE at Beijing Ditan Hospital between August 2008 and December 2018. After adjustment for major risk factors, Cox regression analysis and restricted cubic splines were used to analyze the relation between NLR and 30-day mortality. The 30-day survival was calculated by Kaplan-Meier method.

RESULTS

All patients were divided into four subgroups on the basis of the quartiles of the baseline NLR distribution (< 2.5, 2.5-4.3, 4.3-7.5, >7.5). The 30-day mortality rates were 7.8%, 12.7%, 19.5% and 34.1%, respectively (P < 0.001). Compared with the lowest quartile, the increase in the NLR was associated with an increase risk of 30-day mortality after multivariable adjustment (NLR 2.5-4.3: adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 1.17 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.70-1.95); NLR 4.3-7.5: AHR, 1.58 (95% CI, 1.01-2.47); NLR > 7.5: AHR, 2.32 (95% CI, 1.50-3.57). A nonlinear association between NLR and the adjusted probability of 30-day mortality was observed. Elevated NLR was correlated with increased 30-day mortality in patients with OHE across different subgroups (HR >1.0).

CONCLUSION

An elevated NLR is independently associated with a higher risk of 30-day mortality in patients with OHE.

Association between achieving textbook outcomes and better survival after laparoscopic liver resection in the anterolateral segments in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The quality of surgical procedures are assessed by textbook outcomes (TO). LLR is considered a standard treatment for HCC in the anterolateral segments of the liver. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the factors affecting achievement of TO for laparoscopic liver resection (LLR) and its impact on survival.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients who underwent LLR for lesions located in the anterolateral segments (n=309). Patients were divided into TO and non-TO group.

RESULTS

A TO was achieved in 55.0% of patients (n=170). In multivariable analysis, Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score >10 (odds ratio[OR] 3.076; 95% confidence interval[CI] 1.134-8.342), absence of diabetes mellitus (OR 2.325; 95% CI 1.227-4.407) and thrombocytopenia (OR 2.115; 95% CI 1.134-8.342) were independently associated with not achieving TO. The 5-year overall (82.9% vs. 72.8%, P=0.017) and recurrence-free (48.8% vs. 35.4%; P=0.036) survival rates were significantly greater in the TO group than in the non-TO group.

CONCLUSION

The MELD score, thrombocytopenia, and hypoalbuminemia were independent risk factors influencing the achievement of TO. TO influences the short- and long-term outcomes after LLR for HCC.

Patients With Cirrhosis Who Have a Model for End-stage Liver Disease Sodium Score of 8 or Greater Are at Increased Risk of Poor Outcomes in Operatively Treated Tibia Fractures

The purpose of this study was to compare 30-day readmission rates for cirrhotic and non-cirrhotic patients after tibia fracture fixation by retrospectively identifying all surgically managed tibial plateau, tibial shaft, and pilon fractures from 2010 through 2018 in the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database (N=14,028). The primary outcome measure was 30-day readmission rates. Secondary outcome measures included 30-day rates of reoperation, length of stay, pulmonary embolism, deep venous thrombosis, and wound complications, including deep or superficial infection. Cirrhotic patients (n=665) and non-cirrhotic patients (n=13,363) were identified using the aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index test. Cirrhotic patients were more likely to have preoperative ascites, renal failure, bleeding disorders, and preoperative transfusions. No differences were reported between the two groups in readmission rate or any of the secondary outcome measures, except that cirrhotic patients' length of stay was longer by 0.5 day. Stratification of the cirrhotic cohort demonstrated that a Model for End-stage Liver Disease sodium (MELD-Na) score of 8 or greater was associated with a 4.1-fold increase in the rate of readmission (5.9% vs 1.5%; P<.01). No other differences were identified based on MELD-Na score stratification. Patients with advanced cirrhosis (MELD-Na score ≥8) have an increased risk of 30-day readmission after tibia fracture surgery. Cirrhosis associated with a lower MELD-Na score might not significantly increase the risk of 30-day complications in patients with tibia fractures. [Orthopedics. 2022;45(2):79-85.].

Sofosbuvir-based antiviral therapy provided highly treatment efficacy, safety, and good tolerability for Taiwanese chronic hepatitis C patients with decompensated cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

For patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related decompensated cirrhosis, poor prognosis was documented due to the development of portal hypertension-related complications and hepatocellular carcinoma. Sofosbuvir-based direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) has revolutionized the treatment landscape of HCV, particularly in this subpopulation. To date, real-world efficacy, tolerability, and safety profiles for Taiwanese HCV-related decompensated cirrhosis treated by DAAs have not been reported.

METHODS

Between December 2015 and June 2020, 50 consecutive HCV-related Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) classes B or C cirrhotics treated by sofosbuvir-based DAAs (with daclatasvir: 7, with ledipasvir: 32, with velpatasvir: 10, with ledipasvir then shifted to velpatasvir: 1) were enrolled. Forty-seven (94%) patients used DAAs in combination with low-dose ribavirin. SVR12 was defined by undetectable HCV RNA (<15 IU/mL) at treatment end and 12 weeks after the completion of therapy.

RESULTS

The mean age of the enrolled patients was 68.1 ± 11.2 years, 18% of the patients were CTP class C, and the baseline HCV RNA level was 5.42 ± 1.2 log10 IU/mL. The genotype distribution was as follows: 1a: 3; 1b: 34; 2: 9; 6: 3; and one patient with an unclassified HCV genotype. After DAAs treatment, the rates of undetectable HCV RNA at week 4 and at the end of the treatment were 88.9% and 98.0%, respectively. Subjective adverse events were reported by 42.0% of the patients, but they were generally mild and could be relieved by medications. One patient did not finish therapy due to sepsis with multiple organ dysfunction. The overall SVR12 rate was 96.0% (CTP class B: 97.6%, CTP class C: 88.9%). A significant improvement in hepatic functional reserve was noted after successful antiviral therapy.

CONCLUSION

For patients with HCV-related decompensated cirrhosis, which has been considered a contraindication for interferon-based therapy, sofosbuvir-based all-oral DAAs provided high treatment efficacy, acceptable safety, and good tolerability.

Recovery and outcomes of patients denied early liver transplantation for severe alcohol-associated hepatitis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Liver transplantation (LT) in alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) remains controversial, in part because spontaneous recovery (SR) can occur. There is a paucity of data on SR in patients with severe AH who undergo LT evaluation. The purpose of this study was to determine factors associated with SR and survival in patients with severe AH who undergo LT evaluation.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

This is a retrospective study of ALD patients with Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) >25 and <90 days abstinence who underwent LT evaluation at a single center between 2012 and 2018. One hundred forty-four patients (median age, 45.5 years; 68.1% male) were included. Forty-nine (34%) underwent LT and 95 (66%) patients did not undergo LT, and of those, 34 (23.6%) experienced SR. Factors associated with recovery were younger age (OR, 0.92; p = 0.004), lower index international normalized ratio (INR; 0.31; p = 0.03), and lower peak MELD (OR, 0.83; p = 0.02). Only 7 patients (20.6%) achieved a compensated state with a MELD <15 and absence of therapy for ascites or HE. Survival was improved in patients who underwent early LT when compared to SR. Survival was impaired in SR following relapse to alcohol use when compared to SR patients who abstained and LT recipients. Among all 6-month survivors of AH, alcohol use trended toward an association with mortality (HR, 2.05; p = 0.17), but only LT was associated with decreased mortality risk (HR, 0.20; p = 0.005).

CONCLUSIONS

SR from AH after LT evaluation is associated with age, index INR, and lower peak MELD. Most recovered patients continue to experience end-stage complications. LT is the only factor associated with lower mortality.

Preoperative MELD score predicts mortality and adverse outcomes following radical cystectomy: analysis of American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program

Background

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) has been widely used to predict the mortality and morbidity of various surgical procedures.

Objectives

We aimed to correlate a high preoperative MELD score with adverse 30-day postoperative complications following radical cystectomy.

Design and Methods

Patients who underwent elective, non-emergency radical cystectomy were identified from the American College of Surgeons-National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) database from 2005 to 2017. Patients were categorized according to a calculated MELD score. The primary outcomes of this study were 30-day postoperative mortality, morbidity, and length of hospital stay following radical cystectomy. For further sensitivity analysis, propensity score matching was used to yield a total of 1387 matched pairs and primary outcomes were also assessed in the matched cohort.

Results

Compared with patients with a MELD < 10, those with MELD ⩾ 10 had significantly higher rates of mortality [odds ratio (OR) = 1.71, p = 0.004], major complications (OR = 1.42, p < 0.001), and prolonged hospital stay (OR = 1.29, p < 0.001) on multivariate analysis. Following risk-adjustment for race, propensity-matched groups revealed that patients with MELD score ⩾ 10 were significantly associated with higher mortality (OR = 1.85, p = 0.008), major complications (OR = 1.34, p < 0.001), yet similar length of hospital stay (OR = 1.17, p = 0.072).

Conclusion

MELD score ⩾ 10 is associated with higher mortality and morbidity in patients undergoing radical cystectomy compared with lower MELD scores. Risk-stratification using MELD score may assist clinicians in identifying high-risk patients to provide adequate preoperative counseling, optimize perioperative conditions, and even consider nonsurgical alternatives.

Establishment and validation of a prognostic model for hepatitis B virus‑related acute-on-chronic liver failure patients with bacterial infection

BACKGROUND

Bacterial infection is one of the most frequent complications in acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), which leads to high mortality. However, a specific prognostic model for ACLF patients with bacterial infection has not been well established.

AIM

To establish and validate a nomogram for predicting 30-day mortality of hepatitis B virus-related ACLF (HBV-ACLF) patients with bacterial infection.

METHODS

A total of 513 ACLF patients for HBV reactivation were enrolled in the prospective cohort, and 224 patients with bacterial infection were for derivation. Independent predictors were identified using multivariate logistic model and then assembled into a nomogram to predict 30-day mortality. The performance of the nomogram was assessed based on its calibration, discrimination and clinical utility in a retrospective cohort of 192 HBV-ACLF patients with bacterial infection.

RESULTS

Age, total bilirubin, lactate dehydrogenase, international normalized ratio and soluble interleukin-2 receptor were shown to be independent risk factors for 30-day mortality of HBV-ACLF patients with bacterial infection and the nomogram was constructed. The nomogram showed a good calibration and discrimination in the derivation cohort, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.883. Application of the nomogram in the validation cohort also showed a good calibration and discrimination, with the AUC of 0.852. Decision curve analysis confirmed the clinical utility of the nomogram.

CONCLUSION

The nomogram was established and validated for predicting 30-day mortality of HBV-ACLF patients with bacterial infection, which may facilitate optimal therapeutic strategies to improve the prognosis of these patients.

Hepatic Encephalopathy and Liver Transplantation: The Past, Present, and Future Toward Equitable Access

Cirrhosis is a debilitating chronic disease with high morbidity and mortality, with the only real cure being liver transplantation (LT). Currently, we allocate organs for transplantation based on the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium (MELD-Na) score that does not account for hepatic encephalopathy (HE). HE affects patients, families, and the health care system because of high rates of recurrence and major readmission burden. Moreover, HE casts a long shadow even after LT. Accounting for HE and incorporating it into the current allocation system has many proponents, but the framework to do this is currently lacking because of differences in consensus or in operationalization parameters. We review the latest evidence of the burden of HE, management of HE before and after LT, and evaluate pros and cons of several methods of diagnosing HE objectively to ensure early and equitable access to LT in this underserved population.

Predictive potential of the MELD and Child-Turcotte-Pugh II scores for SBP in patients with cirrhosis and ascites

It is very important for patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) to assess the length of survival and the risk of death, primarily because of the wide range of potential complications that can lead to multisystem organ failure and fatal outcome. The aim of this study was to determine the predictive potential of MELD and Child-Turcotte-Pugh II score for SBP in patients with cirrhosis and ascites. Material and methods: The study was designed as a prospective-analytical-observational and was conducted at the University Clinic for Gastroenterohepatology in Skopje for a period of one year. The study population included 70 hospitalized patients with established liver cirrhosis, regardless of etiology, divided into two groups, 35 patients with SBP and 35 non-SBP. Prognostic scores in patients with liver cirrhosis and ascites: MELD score, according to the formula: MELD = [(0.957 x Ln Creatinin) + (0.378 x Ln Bilirubin) + (1.12 x Ln INR) + (0.643) x 10]. The Child-Turcotte-Pugh II score includes 6 parameters: serum albumin and bilirubin, amount of ascites, degree of encephalopathy ( HE), prothrombin time (PT) and serum creatinine, and assessment of the degree of hepatic encephalopathy according to the West Haven criteria. Results: The average value of the MELD score in patients with SBP was 22.6 ± 8.27 and in non-SBP the average value was lower - 17.83±5.87. According to the Mann-Whitney U test, the difference between the mean values ​​was statistically significant for p <0.05 (z = 2.41; p = 0.015). A score of 30 to 39 was registered in 25.7% of patients with SBP, and only in 2.9% in non-SBP; the percentage difference was statistically significant for p <0.05 (Difference test, p = 0.0064 ). Patients with SBP had an average Child-Pugh score of 13.09 ± 2.48 or 100.0% C-class points. In patients with non-SBP, an average child-Pugh score of 9.63 ± 1.62 was recorded, or class B in 65.7% and class C in 34.3%. The percentage difference was statistically significant for p <0.05 (Difference test, p = 0.000000). According to the Mann-Whitney U test, the difference between the mean values ​​was statistically significant for p <0.05 (z = -5.44; p = 0.00001). ROC analysis indicated that the Child-Turcotte-Pugh II score contributed to the diagnosis of SBP - 90.7% (p = 0.000) (excellent predictor), closer to the ideal value of 1.0 and above the worst value of 0.5. ROC analysis indicated that the MELD score did not contribute to the diagnosis of SBP - 66.7% (p = 0.017) (weak predictor), closer to the worst value of 0.5. Conclusion:Our research confirmed that SBP occurs in patients with severe hepatic dysfunction calculated according to the CTP II score and MELD score. Mean value of the MELD score in patients with SBP was higher then in patients with non-SBP. On the other hand all patients with SBP had an average CTP II score, C-class points,  while the largest percentage of patients with non-SBP were class B-class points. MELD score is a weak predictor of SBP.  The best predictor for predicting SBP is the CTP II score (rank C).

Development and validation of a new prognostic score for hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Early determination of the prognosis of patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) is important to guide clinical management and decrease mortality. The aim of this study was to develop a new simplified prognostic score to accurately predict outcomes in patients with HBV-ACLF.

METHODS

Prospective clinical data from 2,409 hospitalized patients with acute deterioration of HBV-related chronic liver disease were used to develop a new prognostic score that was validated in an external group.

RESULTS

A total of 954 enrolled patients with HBV-ACLF were diagnosed based on the Chinese Group on the Study of Severe Hepatitis B-ACLF (COSSH-ACLF) criteria. Six predictive factors were significantly related to 28-day mortality and constituted a new prognostic score (=1.649×ln(international normalized ratio)+0.457×hepatic encephalopathy score+0.425×ln(neutrophil)+0.396×ln(total bilirubin)+0.576×ln(serum urea)+0.033×age). The C-indices of the new score for 28-/90-day mortality (0.826/0.809) were significantly higher than those of 4 other scores (COSSH-ACLF, 0.793/0.784; CLIF-C ACLF, 0.792/0.770; MELD, 0.731/0.727; MELD-Na, 0.730/0.726; all p <0.05). The prediction error rates of the new score for 28-day mortality were significantly lower than those of the 4 other scores: COSSH-ACLF (15.9%), CLIF-C ACLF (16.3%), MELD (35.3%) and MELD-Na (35.6%). The probability density function evaluation and risk stratification of the new score also showed the highest predictive values for mortality. These results were then validated in an external cohort.

CONCLUSION

A new prognostic score based on 6 predictors, without an assessment of organ failure, can accurately predict short-term mortality in patients with HBV-ACLF and might be used to guide clinical management.

LAY SUMMARY

Hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) is a complex syndrome that is associated with a high short-term mortality rate. We developed a simplified prognostic score for patients suffering from this condition based on a prospective multicentre cohort. This new score had better predictive ability than 4 other commonly used scores.

The Level of Alcohol Consumption in the Prior Year Does Not Impact Clinical Outcomes in Patients With Alcohol-Associated Hepatitis

The 10-item Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT-10) and its shorter form, AUDIT-Consumption (AUDIT-C), are questionnaires used to characterize severity of drinking. We hypothesized that liver injury and short-term outcomes of alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) would correlate with a patient's recent alcohol consumption as determined by AUDIT-10 and AUDIT-C. We analyzed a prospective international database of patients with AH diagnosed based on the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (NIAAA) standard definitions. All patients were interviewed using AUDIT-10. Primary outcomes included the discriminatory ability of the AUDIT-10 and AUDIT-C scores for predicting survival status at 28 and 90 days and severity of liver injury, as measured by Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-sodium (MELD-Na). The relationship between AUDIT scores and survival status was quantified by calculating the area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic analysis. The relationship between AUDIT scores and MELD-Na was examined using correlation coefficients. In 245 patients (age range 25-75 years; 35% female), we found no correlation between AUDIT-10 or AUDIT-C scores and either 28- or 90-day mortality. Similarly, there was no correlation between AUDIT-10 and AUDIT-C and MELD-Na scores. There was a strong positive correlation between MELD-Na and 28- and 90-day mortality. Additional measures of severity of alcohol use (average grams of alcohol consumed per day, years of drinking, convictions for driving under the influence, and rehabilitation attempts) and psychosocial factors (marriage, paid employment, and level of social support) had no influence on MELD-Na. In patients presenting with AH, AUDIT-10 and AUDIT-C were predictors of neither clinical severity of liver disease nor short-term mortality, suggesting that level of alcohol consumption in the prior year is not key to the presenting features or outcome of AH.

MELD is MELD is MELD? Transplant center-level variation in waitlist mortality for candidates with the same biological MELD

Recently, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD)-based liver allocation in the United States has been questioned based on concerns that waitlist mortality for a given biologic MELD (bMELD), calculated using laboratory values alone, might be higher at certain centers in certain locations across the country. Therefore, we aimed to quantify the center-level variation in bMELD-predicted mortality risk. Using Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR) data from January 2015 to December 2019, we modeled mortality risk in 33 260 adult, first-time waitlisted candidates from 120 centers using multilevel Poisson regression, adjusting for sex, and time-varying age and bMELD. We calculated a "MELD correction factor" using each center's random intercept and bMELD coefficient. A MELD correction factor of +1 means that center's candidates have a higher-than-average bMELD-predicted mortality risk equivalent to 1 bMELD point. We found that the "MELD correction factor" median (IQR) was 0.03 (-0.47, 0.52), indicating almost no center-level variation. The number of centers with "MELD correction factors" within ±0.5 points, and between ±0.5-± 1, ±1.0-±1.5, and ±1.5-±2.0 points was 62, 41, 13, and 4, respectively. No centers had waitlisted candidates with a higher-than-average bMELD-predicted mortality risk beyond ±2 bMELD points. Given that bMELD similarly predicts waitlist mortality at centers across the country, our results support continued MELD-based prioritization of waitlisted candidates irrespective of center.